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tv   To the Point  Deutsche Welle  June 24, 2022 9:30am-10:01am CEST

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love has no limits. love is for everybody. love is live, love matters. and that's my new podcast. i'm evelyn sharma, and i really think we need to talk about all the top makes the new devise and deny that this. i have invited many deer and well known guests, and i would like to invite you to 9 o rushes, retaliation against western sanctions, is sparking a world wide crisis as food and fuel prices sore, putting the vulnerable at risk, rushes slash and gas deliveries to european countries including germany, in what one german leader calls an economic attack, citizens are tightening their belts as inflation surges. nowhere more so than in
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the global south, where russia's blockade of grange shipments could plunge up to 50000000 people into famine. today we're asking no grain, no gas is scarcity, hotels weapon of choice. mm hm. hello and welcome to to the point. it's a great pleasure to introduce our guests than the lean of fun, the brain. oh is european business and finance correspondent for the magazine. the economist and it got him here. yes, a puff is my colleague here at d w. he works with d w's russian desk. and it's a pleasure to welcome coming to us from ghana virtual lee, professor queasy, and he is director at the coffee and national peacekeeping training center again
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across. welcome to you. and before i come to you dear guests, i would like for all of us to listen to a recent claim made by a vladimir putin that european and us sanctions, which he referred to as an economic blitzkrieg are actually hurting the west or the russia. you thus learn more, you are using the european politicians have already dealt a serious blow to their own economy's property. we shortly. experts estimate that the total ear losses from the sanctions next year could reach as much as $400000000000.00 us dollars. roughly up to what didn't. inflation in certain countries has surpassed 20 percent and vendor lynette putting went on to say that in fact, his government has stabilized russia's financial system. it's banking system. it's trade relations. is he right?
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are the sanctions actually boomerang to hurt the countries that imposed them more than russia? well, of course he is exaggerating hugely, but there is the grain of truth and all that. so we are suffering because of the, you know, this situation because of the aggression, because of, you know, all the, the higher energy prices, higher food prices, all of that. so we are suffering. but eventually russia will suffer much more in that sense he's wrong. what is eventually mean? i know there's one economist, but he is a bit of an outlier has said that we could see a drop in russian growth or in russia's g, d, p of up to 12 percent this year. do you think that's right? i think that's absolutely plausible. so even, and that's a lot by itself as, as is really a lot and next year will be possibly even worse. because at the moment, for instance, germany is still depends for about 35 percent of its gas inputs on russia used to be 55 percent or is it down to $35.00? said eventually it wants to be completely independent of russian gas. which means,
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you know, the payments to russia will dwindle to almost nothing. and that's makes a huge, has a huge impact on measure learning. mm. what are you hearing from friends and family in russia? do they say that life is back to normal? remote is normal. there was no, no, any kinds of crazy brush there was. inflation is on the road and ross as well present, which doesn't mention the inflation and rush hour, 15 percent already. it doesn't play any in your all for him in the public opinion. there they have the public opinion, they're not completely under control, so there is no panicking nor no panic hamster buying. no, nothing. there are some sorts of just on medications in the rush and pharmacists, but it's basically all in there for us to suck wave of their this invasion or especially community operation. the rest of the boarding is our so life is normal and it's surprising. so one of the best because they're hopeful that the sanctions will be introducing some kind of new new atmosphere in russia in the mystic
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politics. it's not, doesn't happen. then de leon just told us though that that she and many others watching this situation do expect the situation to get worse in rush. won't that cause economic hardship for normal citizens? it might happen. but the question is, how long can reach terms long terms of sort of the yes, but we don't know how long this long term will be and how many ukrainians will die before the long term consequences will arrive in the russia. so if it takes one year or more to her defects of sanctions drive in the russian society, what will happen to the ukraine in this period of time? the cost for us is absolutely huge because the sanctions are unique in the history and all such back a wide range of things, an ever in the history of, of the, of the best and politics. but at the same time that we're in the grants going on dothan, you stopped and is, has become a war of attrition. crazy western leaders have repeated almost as
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a kind of mantra that sanctions are only sustainable if they hurt the country that's being sanctioned. more than those that impose the sanctions and they are friends and allies. so if you look at the international effects of western sanctions and russian retaliation, would you say we've reached the point at which the costs essentially outweigh any advantages? nothing functions regina or we're sort of a tendency to hit of the mac. so where we see that mister putin and his friends are being sanctioned by seizing luxury artists and friedman bank account that is not related to the mark. the spin off of the sanctions. regina is that people who are not congest shelly, part of this law. abbey in affected barrett. but let me make this point very clear
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that for those of us on this continent of africa, we think that a wall provides challenges. but i think with sophisticated leadership the watch, it also provides opportunities for us in terms of much more effective. you know, i go quite trial policies, much more credible supply chain in those systems. so yes, in the immediate, as blood to bear has spoken about and been deleted, also, it looks as if it is not having that long term. i think the russians are going tools to suffer and liquid communities for africa and, and it's needed to improve the report from supplier to i want to drill deeper on the short term. and the fact is that even before russia attacked ukraine, the world food program was warning that a cascade of crisis is putting millions of people in mortal danger. now as
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a result of blockaded grain shipments and surging prices, it's predicting a hunger crisis of unprecedented proportions. hungry, thirsty, and severely weakened. that's how millions of people feel in countries like kenya, ethiopia, and somalia, located in the horn of africa. 2000000 children just like this little girl are at risk of starvation. glad i was very upset. i'm worried about her condition when she came to the hospital like she would die. there is no food as crops, dry up, and livestock die of thirst. east africa is experiencing its worst drought in 40 years. the fundamental issue in the somalian in the horn at the moment is the climate induced crisis, right? it's route where the effects of the brain crisis come in is that the food prices and. ready fuel prices and others, m r heights up to
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a point where we need more resources to secure what be with the secured before. prices are rising daily, including wheat a staple for many meals, especially for poor families. according to the un african countries import almost half of their wheat from ukraine and russia, the longer the war and ukraine in the russian block, he of the black sea port lasts the scarcer green will become in the greater need will increase. will the ukraine war cause people to starve crazy? let me put that question directly to you. which countries and which groups would you say are most at risk? well, i think come, chris, that it's or immense amounts of grid. oh, which from your credit will be at risk, but let me also see this countries which import but not under chris
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is not the fundamental greed that africans each is ms. scott hall. it's about st. potatoes. it's about plenty. it's about cool. yeah, it's about, yeah. this crisis must force african lee this to 10 round the agricultural policies. if our risk assessment had been great and our lead death had listed when this was that if african steve had said less, increased our maze production by 20 percent. it took just 3 to 4 months. for me to grow, for st. put it was to grow. i think we need to move beyond just narrative of africa in a relationship of charity, where people should always give the continental this wall. class corbett is giving a lot of african leaders that the way to claim that the problems are from these 2
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things. that the hunger, the challenges, the poverty predicted the wall and predicted corbett. let them put in place the proper agricultural policies. and we would need to treat it crazy nonetheless, as you mentioned that before our report, there is a short term long term dilemma here. do you think famine can still be averted? i think we've closed a certain threshold because it's clay between used probably about 80 percent of it and that collaborating juice challenge challenge just relating to food is security has been ongoing for the past 567 years, probably 10 years. i'd be that grab process that's now escalated and west and by a limited amount of inputs coming. in other words of angelina,
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this war has become a crisis multiplier as it was. so tell us, if you would, how you see, you know, how we go forward on the matter of food shortages. the world food crap program has now put forward a 5 point plan that it wants to g 7 to adopt. and in fact, the g 7 will be meeting next week under german leadership. and the 1st point in this program is as, as the world food program says, political solutions to an conflict now and relaxed. the blockade of black sea ports that is a very tall order. is it feasible? it is, it is of a tall order, but 1st of all, on the multiply effect. yes. so that crisis pre dated in the war and ukraine. so energy prices and food prices and you know, the whole problem of time of change, of course, all of that existed even before russia invaded ukraine. but of course,
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the invasion has made it much worse. so what can we do in the immediate future? of course we need to unblock those deliveries from ukraine. i mean, they're stuck in the ports and, and, you know, and, and it's a tragedy even ukrainians cannot store anything anymore because all the storage facilities are full. so that is something we can do that that could help very quickly. and so the big challenge is to rear silos on the border for exactly. exactly and, and most importantly to let the ships leave the port and the apparently there's one ship that left yesterday. the port of maria, pull a turkish ship and one doesn't know whether it was grains but, but anyway, so it's possible. but you know that it's part of the huge problem of the whole world registered across countries and the war. and the grooms exports from the grooms on the one small piece over huge and very complex problem. and i'm
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a frankly able to solve this problem, a part of the biggest, bigger problem, richard richard warren crane. can i ask you that? i'm a russia has claimed that in fact it's ukraine, that has put the minds outside of ukrainian black sea ports. and it also says there's nothing moscow can do about that. foreign minister love rob said, just recently that russia is willing to guarantee the safety of ukrainian ships that leave those ports. if it d mines the ports itself. and he also said russia would not take advantage of an unprotected ukrainian coast. do you believe any of those claims? i don't know. i don't know what to believe you're from what you're coming from, a russian government because it's, you know, your experiences with russian feeling. one thing from doing a lot of things i would, i would look what will happen in the reality of what they're feeling because they're kind of the same time blaming russell for booking the parts in from mining
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them. so it's blame, game is a part of the war propaganda basically on the both sides of the border. and it's, it's, it's your magical, it's just huge, huge for not for the african continent, but for the worked communities such. and this is the reason because juice evans should find kind of solution to this food crisis, which is common cause if the g 7, if the last show this, it will be sharing that meeting were to call you up now and say, what's the 1st thing we we should do what would you tell him? take a deep breath. i did i have, i have no idea. i have no idea basically because at some point you suit, i hope we will find that it, it kind of way, although the whole situation. but it's the, the whole dynamic is very negative, right. and also the, on the word pop, clearly from the rational under the grade book. the rest of society is such and
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it's not getting better. i'm afraid, casey, i know you wanted to speak to that point. let me ask you to just also say a word about these blame narratives. we've talked about this several times on this program in recent weeks. the fact that put in blames ukraine and the west for the looming hunger crisis. whereas the west says russia is using hunger as a weapon. now i know that donna was one of the countries that abstained when the un voted in april the un general assembly to condemn the russian invasion. it is abstained along with 57 other countries, many of them from the global south, which narrative would you say people there believes? well, i think people on the african continent and are beginning to create your own narrative that africa doesn't want to be seen as a humanitarian victim or a charity project. and that the continent and its members have an agency that is
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necessary for both russia, ukraine, and a general western world. 20 stand. there's a tendency for africa to be seen just as a tangential pat of the crisis in europe. and i think europe's miss reading of mr. put in. first. this glorious acceptance of mr. put, expanding the g 7. slappey him on derek in 2000. and 14 way the bid did the crimea. and now study lee europeans are saying. but did you do build for us? you up stayed? the original sin came from the inability of european strategist and their own countries to understand the need to stop what we in africa and a student. immediately he held the such international conference on this continent . i mean, we are criticize a bit, i put in what you wrote, yes,
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as they're buying dots from there. and you have criticize in africa for voting in particular ways. you cannot have your cake and to it. you've directed development aid from the continent. you've left people in that ledge. you've taken away your watch ships from their goal for guinea. those of us who way europe's friends during the cold war and how be euro's alex had be left in the latch. because euros, cousins are now in problem, and it would be difficult for you to come back and to reestablish this relationship . because europe has told us, you don't matter. we only use you when it's use us. and that's what africa has lent when that stand. and it's beginning to show it jesse by see we will fort according to the way that we think it best, shoot our national interest and best suits the aspirations of all. so i, people,
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unfortunately, you group and analysts are consistently misreading what the continent or how the continent understands about what is happening in a western europe. thank you very powerful message there to europe vladimir. time is clearly of the essence, particularly in the area of, of the food shortages. who, if anyone could actually exercise influence on vladimir putin in china, turkey, there are various candidates out there. well, i'm not sure there's someone out there who can influence voting of supporting decisions because he's acting on himself. so, but he is kind of in his mind, he's a very brief medical state man. so there must be someone who can are good for him, not try to influence him, but to try to negotiate to him somehow. i know it sounds completely unrealistic. it's i know it's all complete outside of the sort. but at some point,
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as long as put them in the power in criminal, there must be some way to communicate to them. i know it's very, it sounds not realistic because we are on the way blaming each other. we blame europe, blame russia, ukraine, brenda ross ross, and blames everyone. and it's a blame game without any anal signed. but at some point i hope and pray for that is kind of way out. i don't see how it looks. coat good at book right now, but it must be away all because otherwise, if you're into a crisis which is bigger than what we're facing right now, and i want to tell deeper into what that crisis means. but 1st, also take a look at the energy sector because in the face of russian retaliation western sanctions can begin to look like they're following the law of unintended consequences. as western countries are winning themselves off, russian fossil fuels, oil and gas prices have not fallen, but spiked. and that is throwing european economies into disarray. gas is
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one of russia's trump cards. russian energy company gas problem has completely halted or severely curtailed. it supplies in a number of you states, including germany, germany's minister for economic affairs used twitter to call on people to save energy. jo, now is the time to do it. every st kilowatt per hour helps in this situation. europe's dependence on russian gas and oil is costing citizens dearly fuel electricity heating, sanctions and supply freezes have doubled energy prices. in some cases, the effects can be felt everywhere, including in the shopping cart as, as the case with food. the inflation rate in europe is over 8 percent. another record high. this means that more and more people lack the money for basic needs, such as food and housing. and it's not just in europe around the world. financial and commodity markets are coming under. increasing pressure is the war in ukraine,
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causing a global economic crisis. and let me put that question straight away to a vendor leon. we've heard of many, many leading institutions, including the world bank, the i m alpha and others, saying that they are drastically revising downward. they are predictions for the global economy, referring to stagflation, a returning, how do you see it? how bad is this crisis likely to be? and do any of these organizations have the tools to find solutions? well, the, the outlook is suddenly dire. and the big question is whether, i mean there's, there's even a scenario that there'd be no recession, but i think it's probably more likely that there will be some kind of recession. but whether it will be a free session with a cappella, or with a small i, which of course, we hope it will be the latter. so with a small, i, you know, there'd be some increase in unemployment, you know, but inflation will be more, less broad under control, which is not the case yet. and in it will be painful,
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but manageable a procession with a big if you know that the one thing that everybody's tit terribly worried about. and that would be probably bigger than the financial crisis in 20182009. that would be very painful. for the entire blog. quickly, many developing countries and emerging economies faced what is now referred to as a last decade back in the 900 seventies. when we saw that low growth inflation scenario called stagflation. what would a major downturn mean now for them, particularly in view of the fact that they're already struggling to recover from the pandemic? and the enormous debt burdens that many have taken on whatever whatever it is going to be disastrous and would make the possibilities fall. and grow very
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difficult. let's not forget that says the eighty's. we've seen buried dramatic increase in the demographics. we've seen expanded bank bases. we've seen, you know, lack of jobs and increasing on employment. but you know, this, maggie meant a simple informed and dynamic leadership content around this huge number of people young people and they turn it into something positive. but i think that the finding variable day, it's informed lead actually. do we have the lead death with the gum sin and the strength of will to fit we are going to confront the challenges that we feed head on, on fortunately, the unsafe, know. so the last decade is going to translate possibly into
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a last generation that will have a ripple, no repercussions not only on this continent, but have to have repercussions particularly to your thank you very much. you know, it strikes me. we talk a lot about whether the ukraine war could become a world war, and in that case, normally we mean a nuclear war. but if we look at this from the economic perspective, it strikes me that indeed this already is a worldwide clump conflagration. vladimir would not use the work. we're just your torch. well, but it's a huge, huge, huge crisis. and is it time possibly for the west to reassess sanctions? maybe yes. with martha not on to the way through. so to program dental in. yes, like we were started me and i would call it an economic cold war that we are having
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at the moment. it's not affordable, but it's a cold war. crazy time to reassess sanctions. a cold deputy because sponsored this poison ivy, this contract reads to all of us. thank you very much to all of you for being with us. and thanks to you out there for tuning and see you soon. ah ah ah ah ah ah ah, with
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ah ah, this is dw news live from berlin. the european union puts ukraine on the path to membership. european leaders approve both ukraine and moldova as official candidates to join the e. u in the future. also coming up ukraine orders its troops out of sea, of year of their nets. after weeks of fighting. it means a step forward for russia.


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