tv Conflict Zone Deutsche Welle September 14, 2022 9:30pm-10:01pm CEST
ah, ah, russia has suffered key reversals on the battlefield as chaos forces have counter attacked and sees back a wide sway the territory. my guest this week from moscow is andre kalashnikov, senior fellow at the think tank. the carnegie endowment for international peace as anger amounts among some of vladimir putin supporters. how vulnerable is he?
he's ready to stay in power at all costs, because she considers himself has done this or has his own mission, and he must returns us, grant greatness to russia. but the conflict to split russian society and radicalized both supporters and opponents of the war. how serious are the calls from local law makers for put in to resign and even face treason charges? and we're russia pose more of a threat to the west if it winds your war, all loses. and jacob, i think up in moscow. welcome to conflict zone. thanks a lot. seems clear that ukraine has made some important military gains in recent days. as things stand now, how big a set back of these ukranian advances for the kremlin? you know, it's, it's a hard question because we don't see that cram cancer as
a really answer to this country offensive military ass for, i mean, political one that psychological in order to nodded to, let's say justify possible problems for the beginning. they said that this is regrouping or for troops, not more but i think chrome is not ready to make any concessions in any diplomatic sense. and in the political sciences is ready for further war of attrition. it could be continuance and kremlin until now. next has this kind of resource. i've been primarily military resource. so this is to be continued. do you expect marked escalation from the kremlin in response to ukrainian moves? i think it's possible, as could be natural as for from criminal site, given the,
the thinking it's very, very militarize. it's very aggressive. and in that sense, i think they are pretty preparing right now. some see, military got the same times. they must find wars for different groups of, for the population because there are a lot of hawks among people who support. he put him supporting of the war primarily and has problems was it was a support from, from just very group because amongst supporters of perkins, there is a group of course and a group of dos from dos as a. she'll kind of authentic as they want to p stocks and vice versa. so pretty much described or military or sources. they might describes a situation improper worse. but the total difference of the population saves. so right now, put into problem put his you can say that this is going to,
it could just suck impulse, but very problematic situation. can i tell you from what you say, there will be people, even among the elite to asking themselves if demon putin is still up to the job. we have the chechen leader runs and cut their off, who doesn't hide his anger. he said, if today or tomorrow, changes are not made in the conduct of the military operation, i'll be forced to go to the countries leadership to explain the situation on the ground. that's pretty direct and that's pretty insulting, isn't it for the president? since he has to spend the fangs, it's got a full the stress of that he's a soldier of put him than simply obeying him. and she can implement any commands from kremlin or the sickly his. he is
such a sincere person when he is describing the current situation. i think he will get some science commence from kremlin to, to get you to on this topic because it's too sensitive for kremlin. this is an excess of one of the persons who are involved in this terrible disaster in this terrible conflicts. i don't think that could be serious. yes. yes, it is noticeable for a lot of people. but at the same time, time generally doesn't change. the public opinion around put who doesn't change the situation and does not influence the military decisions another people are responsible for a military answer to ukrainians. so it's symptomatic but it's still not so dangerous for put in. we're not talking about was both
discontent and science 0 it's i think we can witness different kind of just contents, but people are trying to be in youth is this elite because they care they afraid of their position and sizes, established rooms. we're also seeing for the 1st time political moves against the president from elected representatives will be at that local municipal level in both moscow and st. petersburg, public goals for him to resign. and in the case of st. petersburg called for him to face charges of treason. isn't it extraordinary? these moves on how serious do you think they are or how serious could these become? this is very interesting phenomenon because politically, it is not so important for crim. it is not
a danger for criminal venica because municipal gypsies do not play any significant role as a political system. but at the same time it's symptomatic that people don't feel fear the situation where they could be persecutors for this kind of letters. and also monsieur, in the answer is very sultry and everyone who express, she's almost view on all the situation, could be prosecuted by and by the scientist in terms of the criminal code to administrative court. some places. but nevertheless, people as threat such a fetish from the situation and then say once openly, voluntarily express discontent was put in sessions. this is something you and special from the size of municipal deputies. and maybe this is soon you
sign up from growing discontent inside. so not only lead butts inside the society as such because municipal differences closer to society than any kind of the mother state level for deputies, regional level or federal level. what happens if these actions spread to other municipal authorities or to moscow itself? how dangerous could that be for the president, the staples to the suppressed? and for the moment nobody paid a lot of attention treats said just possible that all the people has done is just kind of let us could be in trouble. ah, i'm afraid that it's going to spread that are all around the whole russian. in that case, yes, it's dangerous promot primarily not for put in but for deputies again, but it's,
it's really important sets civil society still here and civil society still express and use not only using such tools come into the streets or growth casting because journalist but the writing classroom to tell us for it is accusing, put in, in a states treason. this is an important sign up till now. moscow has done everything. seems to have done everything to pretend that life is just the same as ever in russia, though, mast funerals, no weeping mothers on television. the ballet and our proceedings are getting on the way and moscow museums galleries are open. the party boats going up and down the moscow river is this fictional normality about to come to a sudden end to think we'll see the full scale mobilization now. yeah,
this is the right term fiction on the mileage. put in creates these impression then the people are creating needs specialists and persons in name big cities. ah, because for instance, i've got in who's ellis of his quiet kids a good say state manager osco must leaf. so normal life, in order to be distracted from all this atrocities some disaster is ukraine and france. and the rest from put aside, was not to announce general mil, military mobilization, military address. because it could provoke discontent among criminal costs. millions of people who are living in the big city or middle says they don't want to go to war. we can talk about, let's say college troops which are sitting their homes,
what you to be indifferently supporting the special operation. but at the same time, they don't think about those lean bullock into real war into trenches. this is more for a poor population, poor groups of population for people from republics distance province. this could be soldiers. this is for so here up to tracks for this is a jolie's in brains for russians, especially, and middle classes. here is one trip and living my private life. as it was always, i am concentrating on the surviving as it in other direct states rec. so people put in, initiated this war for cation knows better. i will not pay too much attention to his arguments,
but he is always right. i will support that's indifferently not fiercely so and put him, gives me an opportunity to concentrate on my own business on my own problems. i don't wait for any help for him from him, but it's quite who's that he doesn't and often to my problems. so it is useful for himself because she can continue this war and not paying too much attention. i'm not attracting too much attention to it because atrocities people are trying not to pay a lot of attention to bad news. want to be on society for goodness, not always a set of evil. and because of that they, they prefer to block bed information. and it's quite good for put in right now. your one of the sharpest russian critics of the war in ukraine. and that may
put in one of the sharpest critic, still writing and still in russia. do you not feel on the threat yourself personally doing this? you know, there is such a special term scholar at risk. so who could save that? them a scholar at risk. but there are very different reasons for different people to stay in russia or to leave russian. and i know a lot of my colleagues and friends for us to hear. some of them are persecutes, it's some of them are arrested, for instance, micro political scientists and the leticia. and then it goes month by this only an administrator for persecution, for him. of those people, as veterans leaf, a, russian, and a case of persecution for any person here is better not to play this game with us
for it is because it's dangerous from the front of your physical health and possible arrests, etc, etc. but from the point of view, for real research, from the point of view of understanding what is happening here from the point of view of your own attitude towards this regime. this is quite important to be here. so this is my country. my country is not equal to put his country, and i prefer to be here because i don't feel and to get a guilt, so i don't feel and irresponsibility for potential thrusters. so this is my troops. ah, but again, in some circumstances, be noticeable to leave the country just like it was inevitable for primarily
prominent journalists to leif russia in order to contribute information, real alternative information for the russian population. they can do it from inside until now i can broadcast and i can write, but it could finish in any moment. couldn't, doesn't scare you though, does he? he is a real de stays for who is sincerely assured that nobody can shatter issues authority that he, she has mission to create new server and she knew greatness to russia and she must consolidate people around him. and people are not ready to be consolidated . they are simply national 3. she's come a column and i miss for in that sense of cetera. he's not the president of the whole russian handled rushed in that sense. ah, maybe he respects, she's team. she respects his enemies,
but it doesn't mean that they can be persecuted because of this respectable status . so he says, sure is that he's doing arizona writes, you written at length about your country past, present future. but i was struck by how you recently connected the dots, russia you said, is i'm lucky with its future because it's on lucky with it's passed. it suggests your country is changed to what a violent history and can't find its way to breaking free from that. is that what you meant to convey? i mean, that's one of the grounds for put insidious gees the glorious past and very specific interpretation of the history. which is really falsification for your own history because she takes dark pages this of this past and he is what white
fortune presents he's whitewash and stolen his time. ah, and in that sense, historical policy for him, this is a tool for governing discounts. ah, he craves false glory is fast and this is a ground for consolidating around him. is an inheritor of his grades. so if you feel take real posts, you will, you should be ready for any kind of normal reading coast as fast. we can make conclusions from its best conclusions, horrible conclusions, but this is a ground for going somewhere for the future. just like just like it wasn't perestroika test we, when we, we became to to know something about ourselves not or
foster it was, became an open window for the future for moving from a horrible past normal future to westernize it and modernize it's russia right now as a senior licensed verse. so it's very important to recreate understanding of your own bus in cable to know and to admit that some pages in this past was horrible. were horrible. you said that put in whitewash? is the sol in this period now, but it wasn't always that way. 5 years ago he stood by the so called wall of grief in moscow and said it was important to remember the repression that took place in soviet society. and now children are taught in your schools that the old soviet union didn't repress anybody. what changed putin do you think?
i, i don't believe in the evolution of put his views up huge in the year to solvent what he only inches away. total power i. comparison was muscle miscellany, in terms of she can restore some to tell terry and features which are typical for the past. and he's simply adapted to the current circumstances from the beginning. he was inheritor of he else and he had to support some ideas about democracy. good relations was west, et cetera, et cetera. but now he's absolutely sincere. he is free from politeness. he lost his shame, absolutely disrupted all the class was arrest. so he's that side of russia.
he expresses content visit. so for humor, repression was this is ruth, she admits he is ready to say that there were repressions. but at the same time, she can't a needs. and she came to law to speak people to me that it was so significant since history. maybe it was to which could so help her solid to rule to create inorder. so it's kind of a contradictory approach seats. but nevertheless, right now to whitewashed everything. last week your group published research showing that the war had divided rather than united russians. and both sides had been radicalized by this conflict. what do you think will be the last
thing, effects of this polarization now in russian society? yes, russia sleeps here, a good russians and bed rations, as i said. so anybody who is against us is not our l. i and get that sense we can say both citizens for the 2nd shorts in russia, labeling us for insurance for simply people who are not trust war. see for top of sorry, this and yes. so the problem is, so the polarization leads to radicalization of for us people who are supporting, put in as a party can fiercely right now and put into when a support ticket also became more. sure. so not supporters, if you there are some sleet society to different groups. as i said,
even amongst supporters of pretend there are people who prefer, for instance more hawkish approached as a war and the group for which prefers less focused approach. but generally speaking, this is please and it, it is living to, let's say, hybrid civil war between russian groups of the population. not a physically is not visible as a physical and see real, real war between different groups who are fighting was it said, it is more about it. you still words are not supporters of put in this as again to the citizens to a 2nd sort of, i'm sorry to interrupt you, but we're running out of time. i just want to, to get to
a couple more points. you say that russia is at a dead end, a historical debt, and as you put it, what did you mean by that? come move forward, can't move backwards. if, if it's true that it's, it's a dead end, what happens next? destination must retrace itself. she will was, it must google see there are receiving is a k. but i feel as the most fear assaulting him kind of a despair is unusual and people are very petticoat and another 2 guest new incentives for new development. we need a new government, let's say such a simple approach put in must disappear in a political way. i mean a nother 2 can't find a next, it's from law is dead. and in order to get your incentive for a new development for modernization of this country. and one more problem is says
a problem of collective responsibility for, for we are waiting for level discussions about and we are involved in discussions right now. well, collect your responsibility and it's difference with collective guilt are responsible for it. so we will be in a situation just like german nation after the 2nd world war. what happens if putin can't claim victory? the, if the reversal is on the battlefield, continue. will he pose more of a threat to the west if he wins or if he loses? i think it's substance li equal or she can be dangerous or being too terrorist and he can be danger being in a, in a defense situation. but he's really could be corner a town he could be that's insulted by,
by the said defeat. and of that sense, she could be more and more dangerous because he has a nuclear weapon. this is a main problem. but generally speaking, he can describe his defeat as a victory for the population and population will accept it again, the indifferently because here is a fatty crumbs us war and people are waiting for the end of the story is the same time sandra. sounds that could be prolonged, it's the longest war and say, morally, ready to the promulgation of this disaster. very briefly, do you think he's just desperate to stay in power at all costs? yes, he's ready to stay in power at all costs, because again, she considers himself as of this sort of his own mission,
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