tv FOX Business After the Bell FOX Business December 26, 2012 4:00pm-5:00pm EST
$90 per barrel mark. what is happening to the oil related stocks? nicole: we have you covered morning, noon and night. we saw oil jumping. ththere was concern in the midde east. we watch iran. oil topping the energy stocks, pulling back today. shibani: we have been talking about what is going on the holiday shopping, retailers mostly in the red but there was one name bucking the trend, jcpenney. talking a lot this week about. nicole: they have been getting back into promotions and discounts. now it is working. david: they are cheering on wall street. member earlier today, the dow was trading down. looks like down about 22 per share. let's look at all the various indices. not a good way to start training
for the holidays. there we go, we are all in the red. the biggest hit is the nasdaq, the tech heavy nasdaq down all day. even when the dow was up, the nasdaq down, tech stocks taking a beating today. shibani: weak sales sending retailers and they read it today. so the high-end names among the worst performers. coach, michael kors, not holding up in today's market. david: even the homebuilders could not get a bounce. could it possibly be some profit taking? up tremendously the past three to six months so perhaps that is what is going on. some prices are looking down a bit after having gone up tremendously even the overall trend is good for homebuilding but for every reason stocks are down today. we're getting dangerously close
going over the fiscal cliff which means taxes go up for everybody who pays taxes but what else does it mean for you -@and for the economy? the chief of staff on george w. bush council of economic advisors, she thinks we're probably going over because the white house will not stop pushing for higher tax rates, she joins us later this hour. shibani: maybe the texas will be higher in 2013, but prices at the pump will be lower. some good news and some bad news. david: but first we will tell you what drove the market in today's data download. all three major indices closing to the red for the third day in a row. nine of 1 10 s&p sectors ended lower led by consumer discretionary and materials posted gains but they were the only ones out of the nine or 10 sectors.
falling compared to the previous month up one year earlier. case-shiller index rising 4.3% compared to year ago. manufacturing utility slowing down, the federal reserve bank using five points from nine in november. numbers above zero indicating expanding activities but there is a slowing trend that has to be watched. shibani: let's take a look at what happened in the market. market action in the cme. telling us why volatility will be a friend of his environment. we have seen in the last few trading sessions getting near and near is a safer place, a hedge and a plea for a flocked to the dollar in hard-core assets like gold and others.
what are we seeing in the market today where you are it? >> today the interesting thing is what is going on with option prices were if you look over the last 20 trading days, about a calendar month, the calendar had done nothing. an annualized movement 9.5%. that is crawling way slow. meanwhile we are seeing the vix, the volatility index, creating higher and higher and higher. why? this fiscal cliff, i think we will see a large one-day move coming out of this. up or down. i think that price that the auction players play with setup for one big move and a whole lot of slowness. the asset you are seeing people go for our insurance product. gold is a week dollar play. all of the asset spectators thae are doubling and we will print money.
that is why the gold has had such a run-up. shibani: i like this idea and i want to push you on this idea of one big move to the upside, to the downside. what will be the catalyst in what range are you talking about? a 10% move, 20% move, somewhere lower? give me a sense of the range. >> the pop higher is larger than the pop lower. i think pricing for about 30-35 handle move on a rally and possibly a drop if we sell off. we have no deal done, maybe lower, on the upside trouble trd break 1450-1460. we have seen some damage done in the near term and truthfully we would need a secondary catalyst to get us through the 1500 level especially if dividends taxes go higher, which i think is something that will happen.
david: worst-case scenario, if in fact we get those lows mark was telling us about, the market is still the best place in town. as you put it, the best host in a bad neighborhood. in that ad neighborhood, what room do i go in, what looks best if the worst happens? >> i have to first tell you we are a longer-term manager, looking for value today we might harvest anywhere from three to five years in the future. that being said, i would look at two big areas. one would be industrials. we still like industrials and that is a growth story for the emerging market. david: by the way, you are specific on that, boeing is a stock you particularly like in the industrials. >> yes, we do. they sell a lot to the developed world, the developing world that
we think they have huge amounts of traction in and investors should be able to benefit from those sales. another area is to elegy. an area i love, understand it. i was a software engineer. i have special insight into that. giving productivity. you have to make people more productive. the tools that really make you productive our technology-based. david: are looking at a five-year, would you go for a basket of goods in technology or i know you like intel, would you rather buy a specific stock like intel beaten-down recently? >> it depends on your level of risk. if you're at low risk investor don't want to do a lot of homework, etf o are the way to . it would probably be a good way
to play it. if you want to do more homework and insight into where you think companies spend money, where we try to put all of our technology pics on the business side, we would buy something like intel and to individual stocks in that area. shibani: something i have been hearing a lot about as we get closer and closer to the fiscal cliff, the r. word, recession. is that something that traders are taught about once again as a headline, as a risk to take me prevent for the end of the year and going into 2013? >> i don't think the recession issue is such a big deal on the trading floor and certainly not hearing guys back your talk about it. trading edible multiple. the big talk is this near-term uncertainty is really the only pop in what we think will be relatively slow 2013.
if you look at kind of the last four or five years, volatility and think is very super cool. we are coming out of a very volatile period. the next reel. the volatility, this will be a fun one to watch, trying to ease off the pedal and all the money printing and i don't foresee that happening this next year. david: hold on a second, she has a very interesting perspective. can you believe going off the fiscal cliff has already been kind of baked into the market itself? but you don't necessarily think it will cause a recession. what happens if you're wrong what happens if we have a recession? i don't see recession like figures baked into this market, do you? >> no, i don't. a prolonged trek over the cliff. a long fall over the cliff, let's say that is the march, april time we don't get any
resolution and there is no deal done by then, we can see programs actually being shut down on the defense contracting side and other government services not being paid for. that i can see. much higher taxes soaking up the revenue. so yes, that is a big thing. this is all gamesmanship about going over the cliff. both sides can say they win if they go fo over the cliff, oddly enough. and that is where we are going. shibani: i wants to ask both of you, when are we going to get back to fundamentals? the bottom line for investors, when are we going to get back to fundamentals, what month, what quarter in 2013? >> i think it will be in a couple of weeks here in january. it is earnings season, we will
get a picture into what companies are seeing. it is almost irrelevant what happened in the fourth quarter. we want to pay attention to what they're seeing from their customers looking into the future. shibani: what are you looking for in 2013? >> i think we will get there when we figure out this cliff situation and the other half when the fed lays off the pedal because that is the other real peace driving us, driving the market beyond the market fundamentals. david: thank you very much. we will see more of u.s. s&p futures close in a couple of minutes. iq. president obama cutting his trip going back to d.c. as the clock ticks away for the tax hikes for all of us. speaker john boehner plan failed in the house. coming up next is off to d.c. for what plans they may look like. shibani: and all of these weather delays going on in
spying airline stocks instead. we have an analyst with his winners and losers predictions for next year. coming up. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust ur brain box. ♪ all onhinkorswim from td ameritrade.
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shibani: shares of aol falling today as the stock is a big winner at least for the year. let's head back to nicole only for the new york stat stock exce with a look. nicole: when you look at aol, it is down .7%. remember the ipo, remember this as an internet type stock. you think of these tech stocks, did you think aol would be such a great reformer? aol nearly doubled, up nearly 100% today. outperforming so many of the others. david: who would have thought aol would be an outperform her. breaking news from the treasury department, all about the debt ceiling. we have been focusing on the fiscal cliff, there is the debt ceiling limit.
peter barnes with the very latest on this. >> all tied up together. secretary geithner warning it could hit the $16.4 trillion debt ceiling on december 31. on monday, new year's eve. but it can use some extraordinary measures with public finances to create $200 billion of additional headroom in the debt ceiling to push out hitting the borrowing limit for about two more months or so to around the end of february. she later released by the treasury, symmetry rights under normal circumstance that amount of headroom would last approximately two months. whoever given the significant uncertainty that now exists with regard to unresolved taxes and spending policies for 2013 it is not possible to predict the effective duration of these methods. these moves were expected by the treasury in the battle over the fiscal cliff remains unresolved.
during the debt ceiling fight the steps include the sales of special government bonds the treasury issues to help state and local governments to manage their cash flow. it also caps spending retirement benefits, all this coming as the senate reconvene tomorrow and folks waiting for the senate to make the next move in this standoff and the president of course come back to town tomorrow as well. david: peter, will there be, i know the president and congress is all focused on the fiscal cliff, will there be any negotiations before the december 31 deadline on the debt ceiling number or will they table that and let treasury deal with it until they have to? >> the white house would like there to be one global deal that includes the debt ceiling but republicans are hearing nothing of that. the president proposed let's get rid of actually having firm vote on raising the debt ceiling,
let's reduce a simpler system because of it rattles the market too much but republicans are saying they want to hold the debt ceiling in reserve in the negotiations because if you can't get a deal on taxes or prove some legislation december 31 raising tax increases, they want to use the debt ceiling to force negotiations on spending cuts going forward, david. david: tim geithner is on his own until the first of the year. >> yes. david: appreciate it. shibani: a look at the s&p futures including going back to the cme group. mark. >> looks like we gave away another $1.50 after close. i cannot imagine a good reason to carry a long position overnight. there is so much risk from the government.
one of the things we need from the government is to get out of the way and allow the economy to work and allow the market to work and until that happens expect the slow drip to happen and we will have zero ability to break away from the 50 day moving average we have been hovering around. david: what a novel time for that. shibani: we will put that together, thank you. david: is the president being told by his own economic advisors we're going to go into recession if it doesn't make a deal with republicans? we'll ask a former chief of staff on president bush economic advisors. see if she thinks the president is flirting with recession. shibani: a problem over at amazon knocking out popular online services including netflix causing families to actually talk to one another on christmas eve. a bit more over the holidays.
david: president obama came back to washington to push for tax hikes the republicans have been resisting but with five days to go, if the president' being givn the right advice on how badly the game of chicken could end up being for all of us if we go off the cliff? joining us now, senior fellow at the manhattan institute and he used to work at the council of economic advisors and advise the
president of what his actions could do to affect the economy. it could potentially lead to a recession. >> i am sure showing him the forecast that unemployment would rise above 9% if we went off the fiscal cliff, gdp growth would lose a percentage point. the consequences are very dire. how do you avoid that happening? david: it is kind of surprising that you mak my goodness from hs economic advisors. wells is advising him of what to do from an economic perspective? >> presidents don' presidents dt their economies. if they did, everything would be fine. listen these political types and the political types that you got to have tax hikes on the rich because that place into a certain constituency we have to fund the green energy projects
because it plays into the environmentalists. david: the council of economic advisors are pretty close to pure economist whereas there are other economists who are more politically oriented and it is that group the president is listening to right now. >> there are lots of political types in the white house. they listen to those a lot more than they listen to the economy. the president is a lot more responsive, this president anyway, to his political advisors than his economic advisors. david: even at the risk of contradicting himself, the president a year ago the president was saying we don't have to raise tax rates on anybody, we can get all the revenue we need but getting rid of deductions going to the simpson-bowles type of thing. let's play a sound from him in
july 2007. play the sound bite, i will get your reaction. >> give us 1.2 trillion in additional revenues which could be accomplished without hiking taxes for tax rates but could be accomplished by eliminating loopholes and eliminating some deductions, and engaging in a tax reform process that could have lowered rates while broadening the base. david: without hiking tax rates. a couple months later he came out with his 2012 budget in which he said the tax system should be simplified. it worked for all americans with lower individual and corporate tax rates and fewer brackets. what changed his mind? >> he came out after the election saying he wanted 1.6 trillion in tax hikes, and his election kind of made him go for something figure.
even though that meant he couldn't get an agreement. my personal view he does not want an agreement with republicans, he wants us to go over the fiscal cliff because republicans will get flamed and we will have a different scenario with the lowest rate not being 10%, but 15%, top rate of 35 to 40%, 42. and then tax cuts. david: the responsibility of political purposes is astounding to me. the only contradicting what he said a year ago, but got taken the advice of some of the top economic advisors that will go into recession. >> it is astounding. they also applies going over the fiscal cliff for that very reason. they want top tax rates to go up and are focusing on rates rather
than revenue. we would have lower revenue took away some of these deductions. david: if we go into a recession, we will get far less revenue, nothing kills revenue coming into the treasury like a recession. there is no dispute about it. if you want to lose 100, $200 in tax revenue you go into a recession. all the money he thinks he's going to get from rich people by hiking the tax rate will be lost, double lost by going into a recession. >> that is exactly right. that is why when britain raise the tax rate from 40 to 50%, they found they got less revenue and will be lowering their tax rates again in april because they found it didn't work, they got less revenue. david: a pleasure to see you, thank you very much for coming in. >> great to be with you. david: thank you. after suffering a major outage earlier this week, netflix is
pointing the finger at amazon.com. despite being competitors when it comes to the streaming business, two companies are partners when it comes to server assistance. shibani joshi has been covering the story. it was extraordinary when we first saw the deal being negotiated between apple and netflix. if you have an apple tv box you will see it features netflix as an icon. shibani: in this case amazon, the service provider, is competitors coming up with this new streaming service to get you to stream movies and videos and everything netflix does that also a web hosting business which is basically like the cloud, that is the engine that powers that flex. 27 out of 30 million customers were in the block without any access to the service on christmas eve arguably the most noticeable time for customers all sitting at home looking to enjoy a night with her family in the service went dark and did
not come back. the problem is there are not alternatives for netflix. darned if you do, darned if you don't. the motivation and incentive remains for someone else to come out. david: when there's a vacuum, the market knows how to fill the vacuum. apple has $120 billion in cash. they want to spend their cash, now they have a boost, maybe they spend it on providing some sort of streaming services like netflix. shibani: a lot of people will be looking at this like twitter, companies that have been impacted by amazon going bust through different times this year. this opens the door to more market contributors. david: use some of that cash, you can beat netflix. i am a netflix customer, but i have to say i have been very
frustrated that only by the outages they have but the problems of variety you have. shibani: and it is a little bit bulky. compared to what i see on apple. apple can fix it right up. david: which airline stocks are ready to soar in 2013? airline analyst gives us his winners and losers for the new year. shibani: starbucks getting pretty creative on the fiscal cliff debate. a message to lawmakers one cup at a time. you don't want to miss that story in today's speed read.
shibani: time now for a quick speed read of some of the day's other headlines, five stories, one minute. here i go. first up, starbucks is making a political push on the fiscal cliff debate. ceo howard schultz is urging workers in the d.c. area write, come home together, on customers cups tomorrow and friday. growth in u.s. holiday retail sales is the weakest it's been in four years. a new report said sales in the two months leading up to christmas increase ad paltry 0.7% versus the expect growth rate of 3 to 4%. and samsung is seeking a ban on import and sale of
ericson products in u.s. following the swedish mobile giant attempt to block the import of samsung devices earlier this month. samsung is accusing ericson of breaching seven different patents. a report from the u.s. energy department says opec will rake in a record $1.05 trillion this year. in net oil export revenue. microsoft is expanding i'm over it but. [buzzer] david: come on. >> the tech giant revealing plans to add six more specialty stores on top of the 51 stores open in the u.s., canada this year. i nailed the script though. i didn't make any miss takes. that is today's speed read. david: didn't make any mistakes. should give you extra time. first time she has done it. hundreds of flights were grounded today do to bad weather but some airline stocks are getting ready to take off, believe it or not in 2013. shibani: let's find out the winnerses and losers. we have hunterer kay.
thanks for joining us, hunter. getting bumpy skies right now with all the weather delays. first off does this impact the stocks or the economic impact at all, should we be thinking about it? >> no. investors overlook whether instances frequently. even when we had hurricane sandy rolling through the airline stocks outperformed the s&p week of and week after. at this point investors are overlooking that kind of thing. david: hunter, one of the surprising thing airlines learned to make money with sky-high gas and fuel prices. how have they done that. >> two main things. capacity discipline. they removed 8% of domestic capacity. david: they're just grounding planes? >> they put down more fuel efficient planes in '08. they are trimming underperforming flights. domesticly the u.s. airline industry is same size as 1999 despite more passengers are fly. david: the other thing. >> fees. david: all the bag fees. hate them but it is helping
them. >> only single-digit percentage of their revenue but 155% of their ebitda. this is 100% margin stuff. shibani: six bucks for a pillow helps somebody. >> yeah. shibani: look at couple stocks doing very well. southwest airlines, 20%. alaska airlines up 15%. what is their recipe for success and what can we see carry over into the new year? >> a lot of people were very pleasantly surprised with the pricing airlines continue to sustain going into the fourth quarter because we had a little bit of decelerating pricing movement going into the fall period. a lot people thought well the party is over the consumer is pulling back. then they rebounded. november, december, pricing trend were much better than people anticipated. david: we're look at your list what 2013 best performers. they were all down today. copa that last one i used to take that in central america. we used to joke about cope past it was like aeroflot.
have to tie your seatbelt on. now they improved quite a bit. >> fortunately they don't fly any soviet aircraft which helps a lot. that is incredible. they're the most profitable airline in the world on global basis. second of all only airline that i know of grown earnings eight straight years. david: are they still based in central america? >> they're in panama. think about the country of panama, it is bastion of capitalism in a sea of socialism. david: that's true. >> it is very stable government that supports the airline industry. copa is perfect example after airline could be in perfect supply and demand environment where the government doesn't tax the hell out of it like here in the united states. shibani: who knew. fiscal cliff, americans are coming back buying stuff out of retail stores. >> yeah. shibani: what about concerns cutting back on flights next year? >> fortunately the schedule data in advance shows airlines are getting ahead of the curve cutting proactively, mid-single digits in capacity january and february. if there is demand drop-off
the pricing impact should be sort of mitigated because the supply proactively removed. consumers usually book air travel months in advance. what we see on the books in january and february looks great. david: before you go the two worst performers from your perspective, to my eyes were two of the best airlines, southwest and jetblue. what led to their, i don't want to say demise but they're going downhill? >> to be fair, they have had good runs here. the stocks i think are expensive right now. david: i see. >> talked about fee, right? as we all know if you watch nfl football game, southwest doesn't charge you for bagses. their commercials are everywhere. >> i love that about southwest. >> they have 4% roic trailing 12-month basis that is the worst of our coverage. shibani: do you think that policy will change? >> not with this management team. david: such a mark of their airline. >> this very, very deeply. david: i pray they make it. i love that brand.
>> you will be fine. david: hunter keay good to see you. thanks for coming in. hunter keay and company from wolf tray hand and company. shibani: oil prices on the rise today but how much will they come crashing down if we do in fact go over the fiscal cliff? up next i ask an expert. he has good news for us on gas prices to look forward to ahead. david: tom kloza is one of the smartest guys in the i will listen of the plus your tax dollars could be used to buy up more risky loans. is this another boondoggle you will end up paying for? liz macdonald has been tracking it. she has the details you don't want to miss. it will make you mad but you want to hear it coming up.
took a post-holiday hit. with only five days left before the fiscal cliff washington is preparing for another round of wheeling and dealing tomorrow. at the closing bell the dow finished 24 points lower to 13,114. treasury secretary tim geithner warning we will reach the debt ceiling by december 31st but geithner did say $200 billion worth of kind of wiggle room could be found, quote from extraordinary measures that would normally buy them two extra months. toyota agreed to pay a billion doll to settle a class-action lawsuit stechling from 2009 and 2010 recalls recommended to unintended acceleration in its vehicles. they will reinstall new safety equipment and reimburse owners as part of the settlement. that's very latest from the fox business network, giving you the power to prosper every school day.
barrel. today we got an analyst who says prices may be heading even higher. joining us now is tom kloza, chief oil analyst. thanks for joining us. >> hi, how are you? shibani: good. i want to talk about what is going on with the markets because we just showed that oil took a nice steep climb up, almost 3% while the rest of the markets is kind of lying flat waiting for what is happening with the fiscal cliff. what is driving oil? >> well i think a couple of things. there was, there were some iranian war games in the persian gulf. and if i were probably the leader of iran i would have war games every week to raise the price of treasurys. there also was a terrorist cell in united arab emirates that was arrested and, some plot perhaps to aim at the saudis and the i am mir rats. so there was a little bit of tension we haven't seen since before superstorm sandy.
the cliff was pushed asunder for the moment. but i think this is a little bit of a sugar rush. i think we may see prices bounce higher in the next few months but the real big surge will come in the spring when it typically does. shibani: interesting, tom, we're so fiscal cliff-focused that international dynamics are still playing into things. i want to talk about that a little more. there was a report that couple out last month that the u.s. could be middle east energy independent sometime in 2035. what are your thoughts on that? >> you're probably referring to the report that said middle east independent. i'm not sure about 3025, i think by end of this decade we could become much less dependent on it. however if you have a collapse in prices let's say 25 or $30 that would change a lot of calculus. the oil shave revolution only works when the price of, let's say domestic crude is above $70 a barrel.
so that is a threat there. shibani: that is interesting. you say depending upon where the price of oil lies you think it is $70 we start to see less interest what is happening with shale and booming shale economy that we've been talking so much and we're pinning our gdp growth on? >> yeah, it is in that neighborhooo. the exact number i'm not sure of. if you briefly drop below 70 you will have some of that production increase continue for a while because you just don't want to shut it in. but i think you remove a lot of incentives to find that oil when wti goes below 70 and some discounts for shale they're as high as $40 for, actually the tar sands crude in canada. so we'd like to drop but probably too much would be a little bit too much of a bad thing. shibani: similar to what happened with the green energy initiatives that we're talking so much a few years ago. i want to bring the picture into the present. we've got short-term with the fiscal cliff and then after the fiscal cliff.
give me what your predictions are as we navigate the roller-coaster ride that will happen over the next few days? >> okay. i think we saw the bottom for national prices at about 3.21 on the last day of autumn. we'll wobble a little bit higher in the next two months. we'll probably get a sugar rush at start of the year with a lot of money coming into commodities. we'll get a typical surge we get from february through april. i think it will take us to about 3.75, but not to some of highs we've seen in previous years. the average price this year is 3.61. i think we'll average less than that next year. somewhere between 325 and 3.75 for the average. a little bit of good news. shibani: so the consumer can count on a few extra bucks in their pocket not taken out at the pump. >> the consumer actually i heard one of your guests talking about retail sales, consumer is using 5% last gasoline in the last four weeks than last year. it seems as though the high
numbers do take a toll at one point. shibani: i think that is something that a lot of americans can certainly be enthusiastic about, paying less at the pump. tom kloza, opis chief oil analyst. thanks very much. >> take care. david: i know i will piss off somebody, of oil analysts i think is guy i listen closest too. to. here we go again, fannie and freddie could take on billions more in risky loans. remember these two corporations were nationalized. it is all done with your tax dollars, emac is on the case getting a bottom line. here is what comes up next. shibani: the biggest hollywood flops this year. we know what the hits were. more fun to talk about the losers. we'll talk about big losers coming up next. ♪ . love about her.
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you don't want to here this, the government bailout may get biggser. they're considering plans to help underwater borrowers in a much bigger way. david: liz macdonald has been following the ins and outs ever since thee two organizations were totally nationalized of they were semigovernment. but this stuff you're finding out is outrageous. >> this is courtesy of "the wall street journal" we had it confirmed this is a plan the white house is considering. in other words, refinanced -- mortgages refinanced not backed by freddie mac and fan fa. there is plan to do that. get fannie mae and freddie mac to refinance mortgages banks don't want. here is the deal. if you owe more on the mortgage than your house is worth and current five years or more of payments you could get a refinanced loan at a lower mortgage rate that would be backed by fannie or freddie mac. but the issue here is, here's the deal. the banks are saying look we'll go along with this
idea, if we don't have to take those loans that they go sour. if those loans go bad, we don't want them back on our balance sheet. you, fannie mae and freddie mac, that's right, you have to put them on your own balance sheet. here's the deal. now the government is running, get this, 160 programs for housing and renters, right? that is overseen by 20 different federal entities. the thing about nationalizing fannie mae and freddie mac, david, once they get healthy to put them back into the arms of u.s. shareholders. not have them run at expense of u.s. taxpayers. so, the thing is, the administration failed to get loan modifications. so this is a fall back plan under consideration. david: government as landlord is just getting bigger and bigger. shibani: downside goes to fannie and freddie. upside is kept with the banks? >> possibly, yes. the issue, the talk is, well, not many loans would be affected by this? listen, there are 3.7 million loans heading toward for closure. you have to say, is this the
way to go? congress has to take this on. david: socializing losses. >> that's right. sure. shibani: thanks very much, liz. david: coming up right here, china is feeling the need for speed. find out about the record breaking high-speed rail line this thing is enormous. literally goes from one coast to the other. we'll tell you how that is working out coming next.