that sent the shares tumbling. let's take a look at stock right now. $4.65 to more than three and a half%. minnesota mining and manufacturing have been a very tough day on this monday. even if you overslept, it is hard to miss the fact that it is cyber monday. the day when you have so estimated 131 million americans are expected to spend some $2 billion shopping turned the -- both are up just slightly with fedex seeing a better game, about one 1/3%. the close of about $139.806. that will be a new all-time high . taking air mail to all the level.

they hope that this will soon be the way of delivering your packages right to your front door. you will even see it here. it is a pretty high. right this somebody's doorstep. and then of course somebody some. somebody is always on. the guy comes running out. he comes. amazon admits a lot of hurdles to this kind of delivery. several years away. company ceo, is a very good thing. we believe this is going to happen at some point. the stock today nearly unchanged. down just a penny. the announcement not really doing much. shares of amazon up about 10 percent over the last month alone. drugmakers. soon it will be our time.

the company is already making delivery drums not really widespread because the faa has to look and all of this. children with bb guns might be a problem. deliveries may be on the rise today, but how big retailers very aware of the busiest shopping days of the year? let's go to nicole petallides on the floor of the new york stock exchange. looking at a large e commerce power play. hitting a new high as you said, today is cyber monday. let's take a look to some of the names related to sever monday. everybody has been not so much hitting the stores brick and mortar, but actually looking to the commerce and the national retail federation giving their predictions for today and saying that 1,301,000,000 americans

shopping online. five days of shopping for brick and mortar did not do as well as some of thought. a look at best buy, walmart, you bet. up 1%. targets and macy's are pulling back. overall online seems to be the way of the holiday season, and you can see that right now the growth is next. we have seen amazon and then . we will see about the journal. that is a great video of the guy coming out. what if you were in the shower and someone steals your presence. the whole concept is interesting . liz: all these questions answered. people have said it will send a message to your smart phone. that still does not tell me if you live in new jersey and your work. let's get to the stock market overall despite hitting record highs. that made it eight weeks straight of gains for the dow on the s&p.

stocks remain near unchanged. let's get back to the floor show. it is all about where the soccer ball was going, not where it is. >> where it is going to be is in the energy sector, the performance last month with the rest of the s&p. as a group by thing today has stocks like marathon petroleum being upgraded. stocks announcing that they will create a master limited partnership. a friend across the street. that's all the traits and manages money in master limited. prefer not talk about them because they like the fact that they're under covered. energy stocks is what he says. you go for it. cme. what are they talking about will be the next opportunity? >> everyone here is really looking for interest rates because they will be the key. this is a big week for central banks. the bank of england, ecb, australia, canada, mexico, making great decisions. that will have a potential

impact. right now our ten year yield is pushing. they are getting nervous. obviously everyone is looking forward to the friday number because that will be the driver for our central bank. liz: we talked about how we will not see things like margin calls with gyrates the market until we start to see higher rates. people becoming a little over leverage when it comes to buying on margin? >> well, yes. actually, margin rates as recorded by the new york stock exchange are all pretty high. it is one of the indicators. this market has been moving and professional money not so much on the average investor. we continue to see huge inflows into the equities, particularly to the etf. another $10 billion going into u.s. equities through the etf. we continue to see money flow into mutual funds to the standard mutual fund flows. a truckload of money sitting on the sideline. in other words, not leveraged way to come in the money market

funds. so it is a careful indicator of something you need to keep an eye on, but it is implying that this market has been moving to new highs with a lot of professional money trading. the investor still with a lot of money on the sideline to catch up. liz: maybe that makes the less scary. there is still a huge chunk of money on the sidelines waiting for those who are leveraged to margin calls the maybe stumble a bit. other money comes in. >> you are right. there are still considerable cash balances. a lot of people that have not committed their money into the market. at this point you see these margin balances. i am not sure where they're coming from. our experience is not the retail trader. >> i want to bring sinn the wexler in. i know you specifically looked at energy, natural gas. after reference gold. down $31. comments right there in that same building what are you

hearing? >> i really think that there is just may be a rotation into other things. a strong dollar, expecting interest rates to go of. the energy markets were higher. seeing a little bit of rotation into energy. liz: more rotation. it would be affected negatively. here is a look at energy. looking at pretty decent numbers year including at gas. the biggest winning streak in over a year, and we will see it touched $4. liz: $3.98, watching to see. her prediction, at least in the next temple of days. natural gas moves like an elephant, very slowly. yes. you will get the discovery. good to see all of you. we do want to be accurate. stop. holiday online sales are

expected to grow by as much as 15 to maybe 17 percent this year, which is great news for shippers like federal express and ups. this cyber monday today projecting to be the biggest and -- busiest in fedex history. jo ling kent right there at a shipping center in the bronx. what are you seeing in d.c.? repeats a different companies? how would imagine amazon, overstocked,. >> that is right. i have seen plenty of amazon boxes. in fact allow when we asked fedex is said they are not too worried about that impacting their business. we are all -- actually on a shift number two as far as the loading and shipping is concerned. absolutely flooded. 22 million packages to be processed on cyber monday alone. the biggest day in history for fedex. you can see, they are loading boxes onto the conveyor belt. at 11% uptick from last year. if you do the math, 125 packages

per second. looking at the stock price, ready hitting all-time highs. also expecting them to hit a record high after the close of the head, $139.86 which will be a record close. so good news despite the vast retail forecast that we have been hearing about. fedex is really doing some good business. we will see how that folds of. liz: thank you very much live. the closing bell ringing in about 50 minutes. last fall word. of what you to do this. we just showed you that video. imagine cyber monday five years from now. a sky full of drones. delivering hundreds of thousands of online shopping orders. remember that we said this. we will find out you and

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i have been understanding that the fed's presence has made a bull market very obvious. less obvious to you as you were calling -- and you are a much smaller guy. i kept thinking, why is he doing this at 20 percent correction? it never happened. now you look in retrospect. this year the dow has tripled the gains that is all in 2012 be read double in the gains. markets don't have moonshots. what other three warning signs? these three things lineup. the planets are lined. >> my credit to my want to say that i am very bullish at the end of 2008. nearly 2009.

riding the bull markets around the world from 2009 onward. now we are getting, next march will be the sixth anniversary of the bull market. in june of next year, the sixth anniversary of the economic recovery. by any standard way above the average bull market that we have . the evaluations of fetched in the market is overbought. the likelihood of a major correction as the market goes up increases. i just want to warn fabulous nurse, it is not a ood time to buy stock. maybe you make another 5%. maybe another 10%. the big move, the markets, up

almost three times. it was not a good time to buy. liz: give people warning signals. watch out. two or three things that you say. warning signals. it's hard to believe. in march 2009 when the market hit the low the very sentiment was universal. everywhere in the world peoples of the world is going to pop. now bullish. now they say it's going to go up. that is a warning sign. some people are very bad. they solo on my high.

liz: we're very high right now.

schiller is copying me. closing bell ringing in 40 minutes. if you work on wall street will the new year be a good one? in the form of a good bonus. you have to buy that lamborghini or the house in the hamptons. or is the question whether you will even have a job. charlie gasparino has exclusive details. and the hottest / sales site on the hottest online sales day of the year. the hottest man the company kevin ryan. he is a serial entrepreneur, chairman of guilt group. he used to run double quick. a fox business exclusive next on the hottest trends. every day 're working to be an even better company -

and to keep our commitments. and we've made a big commitment to america. bp supports nearly 250,000 jobs here. through all of our energy operations, we invest more in the u.s. than any other place in the world. in fact, we've invested over $55 billion here in the last five years - making bp america's largest energy investor. our commitment has never been stronger.

liz: the majority of wall street employees are free say for the new year. people are bracing for another round of layoffs. charlie gasparino is here now

with the aces of details. one particular. >> as you know, just about every firm has announced major layoffs in the mortgage department because of interest rates. we understand talking with the firms is that they're going to be more layoffs and those departments go forward. what is interesting is that it seems like aside from that wall street is pretty much right side. i don't hear chatter about major cuts at any of the big banks. they have done it. the businesses reflecting what is in the regulations are how much money they're making. that does not mean it won't be here and there, but generally speaking this looks like firms arr where they are set for the mortgage department. this means essentially this, every firm expects paper into begin at some point. >> a huge department. here is the thing. we sit around and talk about not tapering or not tapering as fast monetary policy. she won't cut back the bond

buying from the banks which is essentially printing money. but everybody on the street believes that will happen. and generally before that happens long-term interest rates go up to reflect that. the market senses it. long-term interest rates go up. simple economics which affects more is prices. a cut to a slowdown in whenever housing. liz: all back in late may early june. >> right. will we are hearing is people planning on wall street for that to happen again and that that, if you look at the one area that is going to get it in terms of wall street employment, the area that has been getting it periodically. these are pressing them. interest rates go up. that causes the opposite of what happened. that has an impact on mortgage prices.

all bonds are priced off the ten and 30 year bond. that is a we're hearing. at the end of the year to of stories, bonuses, we kind of cover that. essentially flat for most places except for places like barclays in the downsizing of. there will be -- particularly major cutbacks and a bonus reductions. the other thing is layoffs. the impression i get is the firms are right, the banks are right size to except in this one area which is where they're talking about more cuts. liz: earlier reporting that something like 11 different commodities will and lower for the year. the cycle is over. this is more cme and nymex seat or some of those. >> yyu know, the jury to go in and out. the trades go in and out. that may be rotating out. i don't think -- that does that

have -- liz: convertible bonds. mortgage-backed securities, things like that. it seems like there is still a market. >> it came back somewhat. as you know, they are making money and also securitized still corporate bond. but here is the thing. the rising interest-rate environment. it is hard. listen. it is hard to gain these markets. you know what i am saying? sometimes a start to go up. high-yield bond. when the markets are up sometimes that is reflected in junk bond prices as well. so i won't tell you a market player. the street is looking to cut. it looks like it is in this play. >> a ton. they take their bonuses and bynum by lamborghini. they pay so much a stock. you don't have the price

component. that has an impact. david patterson, a pretty liberal governor of new york, i like him personally. the conversation. i am for the wall street bonuses . i want to be paid in cash. as a politician in new york a want to spend money here. >> they used to set up a pop-up harry winston down the store. those are the days. >> i like it. i'm looking in my face, and i like it. liz: it's not horrible. what an endorsement. not horrible. >> my these things i have a horrible voice. liz: you do not. now give you that. >> singing voice. that i haven't heard. closing bell ringing in 30 minutes. the company that says you any

mail telling you 15 minutes before hot deals. it can only be killed group. a fox business exclusive. the man who founded it is here live with the hottest sellers on his side today on this cyber mondaa asking what people are buying when it comes to his new startup. there is another one. if you are thinking about taking the matrimony plunge you need to listen up. he is coming up in a fox business exclusive. speaking of saying happily married, do you want to know my favorite cyber monday deal? 40% off joe's jeans. 100 percent lambskin leather. leggings. then make your legs look really skinny. you can buy them for $297 versus 495. [ male announcer ] hee's a question for you.

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liz: well, now the dow jones industrials down 78 points, so we've blasted through our low of the session which when we started was down 55. here's a piece of good news, though, u.s. manufacturing activity hitting its hhghest level this more than two years, and new stocks are getting an energy boost. let's get to nicole petallides on the floor of the new york stock exchange for more on this. >> reporter: it's really interesting when you start to see the manufacturing activity on the move that way and the best in two years. it really helps things along. i'm going to show you marathon petroleum, up 5.5% right now. also deutsche bank raised their rating to a buy from a hold. but with the ism numbers that

rose 57.3% from 56.4%, highest since april twch, -- 2007, it moved a lot of the names up with it. we saw treasuries, a lot of people started to sell off bonds, started to think maybe the fed would begin tapering of some sort, we saw the yield going to 2.8% and energy names on the news, and it took the major averages up off their lows as well. liz: do you get the 11:45 a.m. guilt group tickler every day? right? you get that e-mail, and it's like shop now or at least in 15 minutes? >> reporter: uh-huh. right. liz: well, guilt group is just one of many sites that is getting the business of more than 130 million americans who are expected to shop online on this cyber monday, and if you're bargain hunting with an eye for fashion, this is the web site for you. if you don't know already

because you've been under a rock, it's an online luxury clothing, and you can find amazing deals. and now kevin ryan has a brand new invention that's taking the wedding industry. guilt group founder and chairman, it's a fox business exclusive. let's get right to the numbers. i know you guys watch these moment by moment. today and over the past couple of days your overall online shopping days. >> yeah, looking incredible. 45% above last year. i think online the industry's probably running a good 20% above last year. liz: to what do you attribute that? that's a huge jump. >> it just keeps growing, we keep getting better what we do. a lot of it is merchandise selection. we do have lieu biton today. liz: and what was it?

>> normally, if you found it out there, it'd be about double. liz: wow. >> so in general, we're about 50% off, but it can be higher than that. liz: let's hold off on a size 44 for somebody i know. [laughter] all right, here's some of the best deals, you have the christian lieu pewton, swar avenue sky, what did you do differently this year? surely, you didn't repeat your land. >> no. a lot of it is just great execution, more focus on mobile, so we're doing a great job there, growing international and getting better and better brands. there's some brands that weren't working a year ago or two years ago but now they are. the whole industry is embracing it, and clients are loving it. a big piece also is technology. it's better targeting. it's understanding what you want. so you're seeing different sales than i'm seeing. liz: so when you hear the bear people out there saying cyber monday is dying, you roll your eyes. >> oh, my gosh, friday was the

best day in history. liz: so maybe it's cyber friday now this a way because people don't want to deal with the crowds? >> look, people don't want to be in a store sometimes fighting with a thousand people. they want to be sitting calmly at home. liz: you brought some of the most popular things. the sony, for example, is one of the highest end italian designers. you bought some scarves. >> yes, those are normally $250, we have them on sale for $89 today. feeling good, and then we have -- liz: i've got this one. i think this matches my coloring. >> yeah. you look great there. we have an andy warhol print there which is normally about $99, it's on for $25. so, you know, every day we have more than 50 different brands and different collections that are put together. so the home, kids, travel, men's, women's and local products. liz: now, the knockoffs out there, because you were among the first of the world, grabbing some of your markettsharesome.

>> look, it's a big market. so ore sites are doing just fine. i think you're going to end up with three or four leaders that will be here for the next 20 years. liz: but they are not going into the wedding registry business. this is amazing, it's even surprised you, the number of rebelling centrals. >> yeah. new company that i founded, launched eight weeks ago. we've already had a thousand as of today a thousand couples set up registries on the site. liz: there's the breaking news, and that's fast for just being in the business eight weeks. >> unbelievable. liz: how much money did you spend on marketing? >> nothing, nothing. this is word of mouth, seem just knowing about i. and the word gets passed on facebook, on social media. guilt was the same way. we didn't do a lot of marketing for the first two years. liz: and the number one selling item, believe it or not, this shocked me, but the cutting board. >> cutting board, absolutely. cutting board. brooklyn slate right there, one of the top presents.

liz: that's a locally-made product, so a small business. were they swamped by the orders? >> they are, they're doing very well. a lot of it people just wants something that's affordable, nice, you know anyone can use that. but i think in general what people do wallet and we're seeing on -- want and we're seeing on registries, they want to have experiences. this is for the modern couple. it's not about getting china and silverware anymore. people are getting tennis lessons, cooking classes, charity contributions, they're getting all kinds of things. liz: and that is what you offer, something different. now, the slate cheese board along with the farmer's market subscription, some of these are local, but the ceez board is at least seven pounds. [laughter] a drone is not going to lift that thing and deliver i. what did you make of jeff bezos comment that we're going to be delivering by drone soon? >> i think it's a fun idea, and it could be appropriate. i mean, drones can be really

cool -- liz: is that something you're looking into? >> not yet, you need to have enormous scale, it's years away yet. and also there's a question as to whether that can scale. can you have a thousand drones coming down on the streets of new york? not easily. i think it'll be a little bit of a gimmick. liz: yeah. i'm on the 18th floor. kevin, great to see you. fantastic numbers, zola is starting in the wedding clan, that's wonderful to see. >> thanks for having me. liz: kevin ryan, guilt group ceo. and tomorrow we have james seat belt at 2 p.m. eastern, part of the network's gotta have it series. you can't afford to miss it. it's great to see you, thank you so much. up 50%p that's amazing. we've been talking about the rise of the drones for years, but amazon, as you know, just lifted that talk to an entirely new level, the ceo predicting the drones could be soon dropping those packages off at

your front door. not the cutting board yet. but be he told "60 minutes" that flyerless vehicles could be making deliveries up up to 30 minutes after an order. he thinks amazon could introduce the drones in less than five years, and that got us wondering whether amazon's plans could spark a drone war between amazon and rivals such as fedex, ups and the postal service as well as pizza and taco delivery companies. a spokesman from fedex saying, quote: while we can't speculate about this particular technology, i can say that making every customer experience outstanding is our priority. amazon's stock is pretty much flat on the session today, but we do have fedex and ups moving higher. we've got the closing bell ringing in 15 and a half minutes. u.s. markets continue to hit new highs. not today though. down today, but real opportunities maybe overseas now. you heard mark at the top of the

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liz: okay, so i'm just looking at thw jones industrials here to see exactly why, what's the real drag.

we had mentioned minnesota mining and manufacturing, but the market had been down about 55 points when we started this hour, now down 78, the nasdaq losing a third of a percent, s&p down a quarter of a percent, so not a great start for the bulls this first trading day of december, but the markets overall have been hitting record highs for weeks and weeks, eight weeks in particular for the dow and s&p, so you might be wondering if it's time to pull back or make a different type of trade. one money manager says it's time to get cautious in a specific way, he's keith mccullough, founder and ceo, always full of vim and vigor and vixx. you're ready the talk to vixx. to date starting to trend higher, still rell relatively low. >> it was interesting last week when the vixx was up on the week with the market hitting new all-time highs. thawcial eye doesn't happen -- that usually doesn't happen. the tapestry of this market is not very encouraging, so you

start to see volatility start to break out, you get a good economic data point like you did this morning, and all of a sudden before you know it, you're off the highs, and volatility continues higher. a lot of people stuck in in this market chasing it, and that's not a good place to be. liz: you just said the tapestry of this market, so that wrings me to window dressing which tends to be something that managers and fund managers are doing right now at the end of the year, of they have to rejigger their funds. doesn't that sometimes give the market a bit of a juice? >> yeah, of course it does. you're going into your end. and what's been fascinating this year is that growth as an investment style has really caught fire, so a lot of people, obviously, were caught off guard by that. at the beginning of the year, people thought is the s&p could go to 15,8. it's obviously at 18,000, so what happens is everybody gets caught with their pants down. liz: you mentioned growth caught people by surprise, but once they figured it out, it was like

shooting fish in a barrel. you'd have to be really, really bad at stock picking if you didn't do well. but now it gets trickier, you believe. and you're actually saying gold may be the trade. why? >> it's interesting, it would be just reversing way create -- basically, the call that we've been making for a year. we thought that growth would surprise on the upside, interest rates on the upside, and you would get down gold and down bonds. so if gold is effectively signaling the antichrist of growth, what you'd be looking for to buy gold is for growth to slow from here. so you actually have a catalyst on thursday which is a three-something gdp, and that is the only catalyst for gold. liz: and, tokes, he just flagged -- folks, he just flagged you on something, gdp numbers. don't flip out of your way if it's bad one way, and the markets start to! rate. but either way -- gyrate. you feel they're doing enough

overseas business, and that's fedex and, of course, starbucks. why in. >> both of these stocks throughout the year have been our favorite stocks, but it's like i feel like iggy piggy. you've got fedex at. 140, we think it can go to 150. liz: both, and they are both identically up 57% year-over-year. different price to earnings ratios. the pe of fedex is 15, that's doable. starbucks is 25, a little rich here, keith? is. >> yeah. i mean, all stocks look rich, obviously, at the all-time high, do they not? the whole thing is quite bubbly, as a matter of fact. liz: do you like any currencies in particular? >> love the british pound. you like the canadians, we have a canadian running the central bank, so that's a very good situation that's developing as well because the british are not doing precisely what the fed and the ecb are doing which is burning their currency at the

stake. liz: he used antichrist, burning at the stake, iggy piggy, how could you not love him? [laughter] keith mccullough, he needs to come to all of our thanksgiving dinners next year. the dow jones industrials hitting session lows right now. after the break we're teling you about the index's biggest laggards, what's going on there. and no santa claus rally start, at least not today. stay tuned, we're coming right back. ♪ ♪ hi honey, did you get e toaster cozy? yep. got all the cozies. [ grandma ] with n fedex one rate, i could ll a box and ship it r one flat rate. so i kn untilt was full. you'd be crazy not to. is tt nana? [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex.

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this. ibm and travelers are two weak players in the dow jones industrials today this cyber monday. we're talking you up all the way and through the closing bell. s&p down a third of a percent. but david asman is in place. david: wish you could talk the market up. i notice we're off 11,000, with you just barely. we're off 16,000. let's talk about something positive with nicole petallides at the nyse. fedex hit all-time high or at least it did. what is it doing now? >> we watched it above 140 bucks a share. and if it were to close around these levels that would be a new high for fedex. liz: i was trying to take some heat off 3m. it is really the biggest laggard on the dow today. >> you're absolutely right. 3m downgraded by the analysts. it has been weighing on the dow and travelers and ibm. so a tough day there. david: let's talk about something that went up, that is interest rates. not necessarily good for the

market. that is terrible for gold. gold is down as interest rates are up. >> that is the story of everything intertwined. manufacturing numbers. we see interest rates jumping. people are selling off bonds and gold. all on the idea that the fed may taper and gold is around 1221 a troy ounce. liz: have to talk about trendy names here. 3-d systems announcing gains after high-end printers coming out. people think this is a little frothy in it sector but looking good today. >> one of those names you talk about, like gogo. talk about 3-d systems unveiling two new printers. got a nice pop. up 2 1/2%. a great performance. david: of course while people are not jumping out of the windows. it is not a terrible down day but the vix we should mention, this is six-week high for the vix. >> right. very interesting to watch how the vix is creeping back up as we're hovering around these

highs. we had eight straight weeks of gains. [closing bell ringing] liz: i don't know what happened to the markets. some blame the 3:00 -- david: the dow did end as bells are ringing on wall street, slightly above 16,000. i think it will stay there. looks like it is off its lows. the lows were about five minutes ago. a little bit of improvement. at least we end the day on the dow at any rate above 16,000. the dow, by the way, of all the top indices has deepest loss percentagewise, but the russell 2000 is always worrisome trend when we saw small and mid-size caps go down over a percentage point as they did today, liz. liz: let's get the front page headlines right now. factory activity surging to a 2 1/2-year high last month. institute of supply management manufacturing index jumping to 5.3. that's well ahead of forecasts. david: bank of america agreed to pay freddie mac $404 million, t