tv Countdown to the Closing Bell With Liz Claman FOX Business August 12, 2014 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
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>> you solved it right there. that is all we have right now. the market down 30 points. i hope you're making money today. "countdown to the closing bell" starts right now.. liz: investor alert! persistent tensions between russia and ukraine pushing german investor sentiment to a near two year low raising fears about europe's biggest economy. liz: and schlumberger warning russian sanctions will hurt its bottom line. jobs in america, 4.7 million job openings in june alone. it's a much stronger number than expected and the highest in 13 years. the chairman, janet pays close attention to the jolt report. what does it is a about the economy and fed policy? former presidential economic adviser ed is here with us live. this is a speed bump for tesla. one day after the stock surges on wall street upgrade.
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tesla's model s gets hit with a less than perfect review from consumer reports which finds quirks with test car after more than 10,000 miles. will the review slow the stock, the sales or is tesla being held to a higher and unfair standard? "countdown to the closing bell" starts right now. . liz: good afternoon, everybody. i'm liz claman. with just one hour to go, a two-day rally for stocks appears to be over. investors seem to be focusing on something they didn't focus on yesterday. new concerns about the crisis in ukraine. now in the absence of any major earnings reports or market moving u.s. economic news, though i would fight against that. you talk about the jolt survey in just a minute which looks really good. the major stock averages are not really good but not bad either. the dow industrials down 30
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points. down 51 earlier today. though up 20. s&p losing about a third of a percent but the russell 2000 today flips over and goes a bit belly up compared to the other indexes, down one full percentage points. we should mention that the dow, when we're talking about uncertainty has crossed the unchanged line 44 times today. let's talk about new twists in russian policy toward ukraine. that was yesterday that we talked about how there was reportedly a humanitarian mission, there are questions whether a truck carrying the humanitarian aid are trojan horses of sorts, maybe carrying weapons? it caught investors' attention in a negative way. the convoy of 280 trucks started rolling from moscow to ukraine, the trucks are delivering food and medicine, humanitarian aid, experts are warning the convoy could
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provide an invasion of western ukraine. there are thousands of russian troops near the border. nato described them as combat ready. our pentagon was saying we see how much closer they are today than in february. the world's biggest oil services company schlumberger is the first u.s. major company that say sanctions will hurt profits this quarter. it is affecting companies slowly but surely. down 1.45. compare it to the previous day and see that it has definitely gone down here. market factors russia, we like to show how the russian stocks aring to. fell half a percent to 24.01. breaking news, steve ballmer now the official owner of the los angeles clippers. the nba confirming that the $2 billion deal closed earlier today.
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that's after a california court ruled the wife of clippers owner donald sterling does have the legal authority to sell the team. donald sterling didn't want to but she apparently can. this is amazing to a californian like me, the only reason you used to go to clippers game is to see the other game. now worth 2 billion! let's get back to the investor, major jobs report on the market today. we're not ignoring this on "countdown to the closing bell." the report is called the jolt survey, job openings and labor turnover survey. when the economists want to look at this so does federal reserve chairman janet yellen. she cares about the number and todays results are adding fuel to the idea that the u.s. recovery is getting stronger. the data putting available jobs in the u.s. at a 13-year high. how could today's data impact the fed's policy making this
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fall? ed lazear is the former economic adviser. stanford university rejected me but we love to see you, ed, thank you for joining us. >> don't take it personally. liz: i didn't. both undergrads graduate, but i'm over it. go berkeley. let's get to the number, up 17.6%, ed, this is unbelievable. the market seems to ignore it. are you? >> yeah. the jolts numbers are data around for about 15 years, and they're actually quite important because they give you a lot of texture to what's happening in the labor market, but because they're not as long established as some of the other numbers, the establishment survey, people don't look at it as much. there are a couple of numbers that you want to focus on. you mentioned vacancy rates that were at a 13-year high. the numbers that i tend to look
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at are primarily hires, quits and layoffs. those numbers are good as well. so i think that the basic thrust of the story is the same. i would use different data, and what we find is that in the current month week have 4.8 million hires. now that's really interesting, for the following reason. you mentioned wonky, this sounds wonky, it's an important fact that most people don't know. that is in the typical month, in a good month and normal times, when we have 100,000 jobs being created, that's because there are 5.1 million hires, and 5 million separations. so that difference of 100,000 is tiny, is just tiny, relative to the number of hires that go on. and that's true even in very bad months. so even in the recession, the worst month of the recession,
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we had 3.6 million hires, that says that about a third of the labor force is hired every year, even in the worst month of the recession. so what it tells you, you have to think about the labor market in a different way, you need to be focused on the hiring side and not on the job creation. liz: because there is the gap between job opens and the number of hires. the unfulfilled number is definitely raised. this is something a lot of -- not just janet yellen -- former federal reserve chair people used as a very important part of dashboard of economic data. janet yellen is supposed to speak at jackson hole meeting which tends to be that time where they let people know what their policy might be. how important will this data be to what she decides to do as far as tightening interest rates and the future is concerned? >> i think it will be important. and again, i think it's important for a couple of
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reasons. first of all, that 4.8 million number is a good number, but another significant number is the difference between quits and layoffs. and that also is a good number and that tends to fall below the radar screen of most people but certainly is not below janet's radar screen, and i'm sure she's looking at it. what happens is when you're in a recession, very bad times, no one wants to quit because there are no jobs available, so layoffs exceed quits. but then when the economy starts to turn around, when things start to pick up, what happens is quits go up, layoffs go down, and the difference, then, is quits become greater than lawoffs. quits are exceeding layoffs by about 800,000. liz: that sounds good to me, right? >> it is. not back to normal times but certainly moving in the right direction. all of these things are indicators of stronger labor market. now the one thing that do i
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want to caution is that before we get too excited and start scheduling the party, you need to know that the target level of hires is not 4.8 million, it's more like 5.2 million. so we're a little bit over half the way back from where we were during the recession. so we still have a long way to go. this is not -- this is not a healthy labor market yet, but i think the indication is at least things are moving in the right direction, better than last year and i'm encouraged by these numbers. liz: before we let you go, we know among all of the incredible things you've done on the resume, you also, in the past, along ago but did advise the governments of both ukraine and russia. i'm wondering what is your assessment as you watch this about what eventually happens here? how serious does it get, or does it scale back and calm
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down? >> well, you know, the big problem for both of those countries is that they are driven very heavily by economics. i remember when i was consulting to ukraine this was back in the early 90s. the big story then was imports of gas and oil from russia, and russia had a stranglehold on them simply because russia controlled those resources and they were so crucial to them. the same thing is happening right now. it's not just the political aspects of it. it's not just the fact that putin is a very strong individual who has some desires on ukraine, but what's also true is that ukraine is very heavily dependent on russia in terms of economic relationships and not easy for it to substitute europe for russia right now. so i think that's going to dictate what happens in the future. liz: we'll watch it and you will, too.
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ed, thank you for joining us. >> thanks very much. appreciate it. liz: ed -- better-than-expected jolts report wasn't enough to boost stocks for a fourth straight day. down to nicole petallides at the new york stock exchange. it's been a push you, pull me day. the dow is climbing closer to the flatline that would make it, what the 45th time? >> it crossed the unchanged time 30 times. we are seeing the dow to the down side about 13 points. that is the action we've seen. over the last couple of days, we've had quite a run. the dow in the last two trading days up over 200 point. you're blinking and don't notice, right? there's a nice one-week chart. yesterday and today, only the nasdaq and the transports posting some green on the screen for this week, for the two days combined. take a look at movers on the
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s&p 500 right now. newmont mining is up 2.4%. the ceo gary goldberg recently said he's interested in talking with barrett gold about a potential merger. the talks broke down. you can see intuitive surgial, michael kors down about 3.5%. mixed bag with back and forth action. back to you. liz: always more at the michael kors stores, maybe it's a buying opportunity. good to see you. closing bell ringing in 48 minutes. ukraine, the jolt stated key crop report influencing markets today. what should investors focus on the last and all-important hour of trade? we get an inside look with traders at the top three major exchanges. where are they seeing money go and come out? consumer reports stellar review of tesla s sedan with a
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because everyone deserves a great night's sleep. know better sleep with sleep number. . liz: we are whispering up the movie trading places, we got the latest world agricultural supply and demand estimates. closely tracking futures all afternoon. the usda raised crop estimates everything from corn to cotton. very little drought, it looks good for the crops. a quick look at where things stand on the screen. you can see soybeans, wheat, cotton, all going down and why because there's more supply here. corn moving higher. i find that interesting. get to the floor show and find out from the traders at the new york stock exchange. jeff flock, you are joining us from the cme group, why is corn
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jumping if there's such a huge inventory of it? >> if you finish back a little bit, should have been a huge rally. last month 65 bushels to the acre, today lower than the lowest estimate. so there you go. should have been a big rally. it was a small rally. they believe what we saw on the farm yesterday, what we showed out farm yesterday, liz, incredible crop, and may be more corn than they know what to do with, speaking of which, beans the same thing. even though what it was what it was predicted to be. there are more beans on hand than they thought. triple what they started the season with, and i tell you, we're going to have more beans and corn and we don't know what to do with. we're hearing from grain elevators that they don't have the rail cars to ship this stuff out. it could be a real mess come liz: jeff, teddy weisberg's
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eyes are glazing over. he's in manhattan. i don't want to hear it! teddy, what do you want to talk about? at this point, we're coming off -- >> i'm boring teddy! oh, my god. >> that's not hard to do. don't worry about it. [ laughter ] >> the best two days for the s&p 500. not a surprise air is coming out of this at the moment. is it time to get defensive? are you seeing that behavior right now? >> i don't think so, walking in the soft sand today, liz, nothing going on, i mean there's been some interesting interday volatility with a couple of stocks. kate spade in particular. on balance, it's pretty boring, now, the good news is that we talked about this a million times. never sell a dull market short, and today the epitome of a dull market. liz: and as you were talking, peter was eyes at the nymex
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were glazing over. nothing dull about brent falling to a nine month low. we got another report separate from the crop report from the international energy agency saying watch out, the demand will be lower, supplies are high, right? >> yeah, i mean it all reflected in the brent market, as far as it being boring, it was very quiet in the wti side there. wasn't much going on. but because they think the inventory is going to be pretty high, it all reflected in the brent market, which spills over into diesel and gasoline. wti was quiet today. liz: find out if there is noise where gary is. you're in a different part of the cme than jeff flock. you can look over your shoulder and find him and say i've got more exciting than the beans and the corn?
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>> one thing with the agricultures, is we were looking at the livestock today. we had limit down, seeing the hogs and cattle falling back, and we've seen it continuously in the last couple of weeks. it is going to reflect at the retail end, probably in the next couple of weeks. teddy stay awake. bear with me. again with the crops too, it was a big number for everybody. a little disappointment and going to reflect back at the retail end in the near future. liz: riveting today. [ laughter ] >> riveting. >> also with the low volume. liz: very true. good to see all of you guys, thank you so much. we'll make it exciting here on "countdown to the closing bell" no matter what, we are watching your money every step of the way. closing bell ringing in 39 minutes. u.s. bank profits, you hear complaining about regulation? guess what? profits have surged to the second highest level in 23
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years, but investors don't seem that impressed. what's holding back bank stocks? not the banks, they're doing well, the bank stocks. a major new report that came out on the banking industry revealing they're making a whole lot of money. as much as investors and drivers adore tesla, like any car company, it's not without flaws. a very influential consumer magraised a red flag. tesla stock, we'll talk about that and much more. details straight ahead.
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this is the incredible part, above precrisis levels. lending levels were robust with total loans held above 8 trillion for the first time ever. that's excellent news. bank stocks not so much. they are not soaring. either flat or slightly higher depending which ones you're looking at. joining us fox business adam shapiro and sml financial senior editor who helped compile the report. nathan, your initial thought this is the second highest rating since you started keeping records? >> you know i initially thought i was waiting for that, we've been waiting to bounce off the bottom for a long time. we certainly heard the industry complain about how challenging it is out there. but we are coming off a base. my initial thought was we are finally here and heard numbers that look pretty good for the
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first time in a while. so my gut was that's there. but the market has been expect more, and so my initial thought is this going to be enough. it hasn't been enough for the market and the investors. liz: adam covers the banks very heavily, he was running through the officers saying you got to see this. >> we were talking about this in the green room. loan loss provisions, this gets to the answer as to why investors might be somewhat skiddish about going into the bank. i'm going to give you the loan loss numbers that you cite in the reports. let's go through the profit numbers. highest was first quarter of 2013. 40.36 billion. then the second quarter of 2014, 42.4 billion and before the financial collapse, 41.2 billion. loan loss provisions seem incredibly low. this is what the banks are setting aside to cover bad
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loans. 6.59 billion. that's the aggregate for the entire industry. he was explaining to me why this is actually a bad omen. it could be a bad omen if we're not underwriting loans the way we need to be. reserves have come down to nearly precrisis levels. at the very least with reserves, sml data shows loans compared to 1.2% compared to when they bottomed out 2006, 200 7. one of the things driving earnings high ser banks have been releasing reserves, releasing reserves and haven't been providing for future losses through loan loss provisions. liz: how did you compile this report? is it just the majors or regionals. >> all 168 chain banks in the country. >> the reason you look at loan loss number is uh-oh, we're assuming that the loans being
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underwritten are good quality. liz: we learn from your mistakes, no? >> let's look at two of the largest banks in the nation, jpmorgan chase and bank of america. profit year-over-year has fallen. one, they're paying settlements to the department of justice and civil settlements because they lied, committed fraud going into the financial crisis. now we're being told and seeing loan loss reserves to see bad loans going forward, that may not be enough to cover. we don't know what the und underwriting standards are. >> there are questions going on about underwriting standards, that's one of the reasons investors aren't taking hold. we hear stories all the time about competing on price, and lowering low rates and also seen it through stories from bankers and the fed senior loan officer survey. the latter said the
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underwriting standards have continued to ease and you hear bankers tell stories about long-term fixed-rate loans at lower rates or interest only loans with 25 year amortization schedules and things like that. is that going to come back to bite them? liz: does it amaze you that bank ceo's are complaining about too much regulation and coming through with record profits over the past 20 months? >> there is a lot of new regulation, that's a tough pill for america to swallow when you see the two things together. but they are seeing lot of new regulation and a lot of new costs, and i think that's a tough sell a lot of times to say regulation is killing me and i'm making all this. liz: okay. adam is going to post this on foxbusiness.com. we can see it. thanks to sml and the fine
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folks that did the report. closing bell is 29 minutes away, you might think global hot spots like iraq and libya and iran are the biggest concern for oil investors right now. a global energy watchdog says the market is facing long-term disruption of a very different kind. it's actually good for the consumer. we're asking raymond james analyst what's going on in the oil market and oil stocks. and one day after tesla stock got quite the boost from a major wall street upgrade, the automaker is feeling a slow boil underneath there today. what the unusual "consumer reports" magazine is saying about tesla's flagship and whether investors and drivers should be worried? and hasn't this happened to every auto company over the past decade? unlimited cash back.
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. liz: a new report on global oil supply caught some people by surprise today. the international energy agency came out and said world demand for oil will rise less than expected than previously thought. the iea says demand will rise one million barrels a day. 180,000 barrels fewer than forecast. what's behind the slowdown? because of concerns over global economies and problems when it comes to headlines or something else going on here? here is a raymond james analyst
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in the energy world. pavel, when you saw this report, what was your first thought? >> nonevent, that's my first thought. this tells us nothing that's new, it really confirms what's already been pretty obvious which is global oil demand for the last five years has been slow and it is only going to stay that way, probably get slower over time. let's break this up into two buckets. develop economies, oil demand is shrinking and that's not going to go away. in aggregate, oil demand is going down every year. emerging markets are growing, china, india, still growing but a lot more slowly than before. for example, china last year grew oil demand 2.9%. ten years ago it was growing at about 10% a year. so going from 10 to less than 3. and the factors behind this, you alluded to this in your
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introduction, it's not because of the headlines, not because of ukraine or kurdistan, it's because of very structural factors that have to do with the efficiency of how oil is consumed. we've seen smaller cars on the road, fewer hummers and more civics. liz: that is interesting, when you bring up how and what they drive, it's really important to point out that at the front of our collective cortex, we're changing our lives. there such more solar being considered for people's houses and you've got more electric vehicles. tesla is hot, there's the volt, the nissan leap, the prius, a hybrid. people are driving these now, that is significant, and what is also significant, you need to shed light on this now, why a libya, combined with iraq equals about 2 million barrels
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that are off-line due to all kinds of sanctions doesn't affect the price. we're seeing brent crude at nine month lows? >> in iraq, northern iraq, kurdistan, there is very little oil production. it's less than 200,000 barrels a day that is at risk from this current conflict with isis. and that's really not moving. libya, on the other hand, has been a problem but a problem for the past year. there is nothing new there, libya substantially off-line since the summer of 2013. >> right. >> iran, also about a million barrels a day off-line, for a different reason. because of the european oil embargo but goes back to 2012. so now two years. liz: let me jump in, people look at a guy like you and say what does he like? he's done all the research for us. you have two names today, ecopetrol, that i'm not familiar with.
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but, of course, you have occidental petroleum, a favorite of dan who comes on a lot these days? >> two oilcentric stocks that have underperformed. ecopetrol is in colombia. maybe not a household name, but has nothing to do with the middle east, nothing to do with libya, with kurdistan. colombia has had its own internal pipeline disruptions but ecopetrol is a very well-run company. some of the best margins in the oil industry looking at profitability metrics and pays a 7% dividend yield, which you should like. and occidental petroleum is a blue chip that is very well known. liz: pavel, great to see you, picks on facebook.com/liz claman. tesla has hit a potential
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speed bump just months after the unusual consumer magazine, "consumer reports" gave model s sedan a near-perfect score. 99 out of 100. now after driving a tesla for 10,000 miles, "consumer reports" says the car has, quote, more than its share of problems. a center screen went blank, it eliminated drivers' access, automatic retracting door handles. edmunds.com is reporting few problems with model s car, faulty main battery pack, frozen touch screen and trouble opening the sun roof. the problems were fixed under warranty. in a statement, tesla said, quote, we are particularly attentive in addressing potential issues if they appear to have minor or low likelihood of causing future problems. tesla stock closed at record
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high yesterday after an upgrade by deutsche banc. it was down flat. it shows there is real resilience for the company which is up 17% over the past year. i have a friend i know who drives one out in california. zero problems. loves it, and put things into perspective. all car companies have had real problems with newer models, that's why my dad said let somebody else drive the new model, once they fix the quirks, then you buy the model you want. the crossover will be popular for tesla. closing bell ringing in 17 minutes. if you have the stomach for risk taking, you need to keep it here. we have a contrarian play for you. both of our market panel experts say reconsider emerging markets as a way to diversify your portfolio despite the fact they've been hammered this year, the analysts making their case next. the dow industrials turned
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jump in a minute a correction happens? my next guests have a perfect recipe to whip up for risk management. you need to know the right ingredients. jack, bmo private bank chief investment officer. 66 billion in assets, jack? very nice. along with ken mercadian asset management. i'll begin with jack, after two really good days, investors calmed down, barely. the dow jumped into positive territory. what is your thought right now? for more than two years people have been saying time to take risk off the table. is now really the time or the time to say hold on? the minute something happens jump in for unloved names. >> yeah, right now, liz, first of all, great to be here, right now we're fully invested and watching a couple ofmetrics, most notably liquidity levels. we watch credit spreads. yield differential between bbb
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bond yields and treasuries as well as the risk to vendors. that has been very, very low. the yield requirement that lenders have had have been minuscule, that's starting to creep up. that's something we're watching. the other thing we're watching, the moving target is momentum. slipped a little bit since the beginning of the month, we're comfortable above the 200-day moving average but something we also want to watch. for right now, we are fully in, but if we see either of those indicators suggest we need to reduce, we'll start to reduce our risk a little bit. liz: ken, we've heard this whole year of a correction coming. we've seen a couple of measly 4 to 5% corrections. barely. where do you look at indicators of something bigger like an 8
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to 10%? >> the word of the week is geopolitical. that's the riskoff talk and hovering around the 4 to 5% correction, and made me go back and look, everyone is worried about the bogeyman, i did a little research on that. if you go back to 1950, there's been 22 times the market corrected from 10 to 20%. over 20% is a recession time frame. and if you notice in that time frame, the average of those corrections were 13.7% down but only took 3.7 months for the market to regain. liz: to regain that and more. are you saying that's a buying opportunity? >> a lot of times the market corrections are much ado about nothing, for a trader trying to eke out living on a day-to-day basis, corrections are important, for the investor saving for retirement. somewhat noise and you have to look past them and use them as a time to accumulate things that may have gotten away from you or stocks you wanted to own
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or now is the time. liz: jack, i noticed on laundry list of five things, you had psychology. i can't even say first how many times we mentioned that people psychology over the past three years, but sitting in the very seats saying it's horrible, things look terrible, and they've missed a five-year long rally. what psychology are you talking about here? >> sure. and just what you're talking about, liz, a contrary indicator. you know generally, bearish and pessimistic investors have low expectations. in a world where the equity market over shorter periods of time is a reflection of reality meeting expectations. clearly, we want to have investors have very low expectations than bullish investors who have high expectations. liz: tell us what to buy. first sectors and what to avoid if we do have the opportunity of a correction? >> we do think that the biggest headway facing the fact is
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evaluation. having a pullback would allow us to have downdraft and maybe get back in at a lower level to. ken's point, down 25% we have to climb back 10% to get even. we try not to dig as deep a hole as we can. that said, u.s. large caps reasonable, emerging markets are cheap, frontier markets are cheap, they're generally have been out of the fray of this geopolitical tension. keep in mind, everyone is worried about sanctions, well, the fact is the russians have to eat something, they're not just going to starve, and if they're not going to trade with u.s. and europe, they're going to trade with latin america and other countries. most in the emerging world. i think there will be beneficiaries here, but we have to look through it. liz: ken, what about you? your chart said there have been
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13% corrections, what would you be buying at this point? >> people need to be keeping a diversified portfolio. i like the dividend plays, the fed has pushed so many people on the risk scale that do not want to be in risky investments. high-quality companies paying a dividend is a good place to be. to jack's point, up to the look at pick off things that maybe haven't been working, that's a good time to take money that you may have moved to the side or are waiting to deploy. things like emerging markets. as the economy does better here and across the globe, a the love the emerging market economies make and assemble the stuff that we use here. i'm not saying you want to plow in, now is the time to look at things you might be underwait because they haven't worked out, they haven't been darlings. liz: buy them on a discount. >> there you go. liz: jack, ken, great to see you, always welcome here to
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give us their gutsy ideas. they said don't freak out. calm down. if there's a correct, it may be an opportunity. closing bell, about five minutes away. on "after the bell," if you want to make more money in the market, start thinking like a woman! we're going to tell you why females produce better result, how you can learn from traits from the author of warren buffett invests like a wolike a. stay tuned. you make a great te.
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[ bell ringing, applause ] five tech stocks with more than a 10%... change in after-market trading. ♪ all the tech stocks with a market cap... of at least 50 billion... are up on the day. 12 low-volume stocks... breaking into 52-week highs. six upcoming earnings plays... that recently gapped up. [ male announcer ] now the world is your trading floor. get real-time market scanning wherever you are with the mobile trader app. from td ameritrade. liz: palladium is up. david: palladium is up. gold has come down. if you thought you could bet on gold early this morning. gold was up seven bucks. has come down since then of the market is evening out. go to nicole petallides talk
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about what dragged down the market today and that was energy. >> definitely looking at names in the energy realm. names such as exxon was among the laggards. hess corporation down 1.1% of the energy was a weak spot. liz: kate spade. suddenly got hot again and now the stock is sinking following earnings. >> you have to wonder is this a merited move, 26% to the downside after hitting new high? come on. that sound like a lot, right? really the outlook. cautionary tone for fiscal year 2016 that they will have to obviously cut into the margins because they have done heavy discounting. david: another stock coming back down-to-earth tekmira, that ebola company. apparently it was flying a little too high. >> a little too much too fast. 135% this year, along with couple other names that run up since early august to treat ebola. they're not even approved yet. now that they get a yes from the world health organization it is lower. liz: we need a picket sign, save
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radioshack. [closing bell ringing] ubs saying we may be near the end of radioshack. end of an eye can. david: they would indeed. they just opened a new one in nye neighborhood. liz: really? one in southhampton. we'll watch radioshack. as well as bells ring on wall street. a flat to lower market today although the dow jones industrials must have crossed the flat line 45 times. a lot of indecisiveness without real direction except a few concerns overseas. we look how stocks are finishing up. dow jones industrials down but not by much. down eight points. russell 2000 down 13/4 of a percent. -- 3/4 of a percent of the nasdaq down. we have so much talk about. it will help your money, we're sure of it. let's get going. "after the bell" starts right now.
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