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tv   Cavuto Coast to Coast  FOX Business  December 12, 2017 8:00pm-10:00pm EST

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thanks for joining us. ed rollins and michael goodwin are among our guests tomorrow. neil cavuto has alabama election coverage next. neil: it will be an historic night. the chance for a democrat to take the seat that has been republican for a century. what's at stake is the republican majority in the senate that may come down to
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49-51. whether that is a recursor to events in the mid-term elections is' guess. so much is at stake where democrats hope to have a credible shot at gaining on republicans and could explain why democrats are moving so fast to get a tax deal done, and making a moot points of whether doug jones or roy moore comes top capitol hill. they hope to get the tax bill signed before horch will sit. hillary vaughn is at the roy morehead quarters:the mood there and feeling there. what do you see, hillary?
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reporter: a senior adviceors tells me they expect a record-breaking turnout in the polls. i asked if they see that as a bad thing? he said no, he thinks it will befight tight but thinks they will win by 5 percentage points. they did receive a security threat to their campaign this morning. there is bumped up security. there are s.w.a.t. teams walking around. they did a sweep before all of us got inside here. we are getting details on how roy moore is spending his day after he rode his horse to vote. he spent time in prayer. we did confirm the senate is going to -- if roy moore wins tonight, mitch mcconnell will gather republican senators
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tomorrow to discuss details and strategy moving forward, what to do with roy moore if he is winning the senate seat here tonight. that's all to be determined. neil: polls have closed across the state. let's get the read from doug jones made quarters in birmingham, alabama. reporter: i think it's fair to say they never thought they would be here. with the press assembled at the hethe -- at the sheraton hotel. the four kkk members who bosmed a church in 1963 got into the race thinking he would give voters an alternative to the republican who they thought was going to win. hillary has been in the
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behinderlands with the moore folks. we have been in the city in black neighborhoods with mainly the jones get out the vote effort. i don't know if it will be strong enough to carry the day, but they are trying. we saw charles barkley at the hotel. in jones has gotten robocalls from president obama and joe biden. he claims to have not known by the. i don't think that would help his cause. charles barkley said you have got to vote for doug jones so the rest of the country doesn't think we are a bunch of damn i'- idiots down here. neil: former bush 43 deputy chief of staff karl rove knows
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the state quite well. what will he be looking for tonight? >> i'll be looking at the republican margins in the suburbs around jefferson county, that's birmingham. if moore is going to win, he has to run comfortably there. i will be looking at the amount of turnout in the 13 counties that comprise the so-called black belt, the lower middle part of alabama. runs from the mississippi line to the georgia line. there has to be a big turnout in those counties for jones to have a shot to win. then i'll be watching three cities, mobile, tuscaloosa and huntsville. he won by 4 percentage points. and he did so by keeping the vote close in those three counties. if he runs badly in madison
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county, the home of huntsville or tuscaloosa or mobile county, then it will be a long night for the republicans. neil: this is a state donald trump won by 26 points. the allegations against roy moore, whether he was dating under aged girls decades ago changed that upside down. i'm wondering whetherral bamiyans who feel they have been lectured to by the establishment or by those saying they should vote a certain way. they turn out in numbers for more. on the other side for doug jones, a rabbit base that's coming out for him, and getting galvanized. a lot of the obama phone calls, joe biden. that vote, they have to be
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marched into the polls to feel that, right? karl each side made a bet. the moore side is counting on the fact 50% of moore voters are self-identified white evangelical voters. if they get 25% black turnout, virtually all of that will go for jones. each side made a bet and shoved it on to the table. if you look back to 2002, the average republican candidate in a contested election has won by more than 20 points. however, in 2012, roy moore won by 4. that's because he had a 30-year controversial history. we have the charges of sexually molesting a 14-year-old.
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but he had a controversial career that caused him to run weaker than the average republican runs. he has a narrow margin for error. he can't lose 5 or 6 or 7 points of what he would otherwise get. romney is winning by nearly 25 points in 2012 and moore is winning by 4. neil: in mobile is presumably be where democrats could rack up the votes. we are told the areas that might start reporting figures first. >> the black belt will be overwhelmingly for jones. i wouldn't be surprised once you get 70 percent or 80 percent of the vote. it will be a real problem for moore. on the other hand. if moore is going to do well in
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north alabama. he will do pretty well. if he doesn't do well in madison, that will be a problem for him. huntsville is in the northern part of the state. and he will do well in the wire grasp, the southeast part of the state. but interestingly enough, one of the areas that will be important for both jones and moore is going to be the area south of the black belt and in the southwest corner down near mobile. the biggest county in that part of the region. a big suburban and retirement area. but north of there will be counties that have been more competitive in close elections and it will be interesting to see where they shake out tonight. if they run well for moore in some of those counties like covington. he will do well statewide. if he narrowly carries them or loses them, it will be a bad time for the republicans.
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neil: much has been made of the state and whether it could be a precursor to the 2018 election. and there is the problem of how republicans greet roy moore if he does win. i don't know how much can be taken to extrapolate from this no matter who wins. >> a normal republican candidate, we wouldn't even be having this conversation tonight. we would be at fax covering this as a minor event. there is a break at 8:30, 9 to get the returns and moore would have one. but i don't think this has huge consequences for 2018. if moore wins it will be because
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of trump and trump's agenda. a vote to support the president and i have got to vote for the trump agenda even though i don't like him. i was talking to some people in alabama. in alabama you can vote in any election, you can pull the straight party lever and his mother voted the republican ticket but didn't vote for roy moore. so she could say i never voted for roy moore, but she voted for the republican ticket. i would not be surprised if moore wins if the republican straight republican ticket ballots. neil: and there are those who can write in a candidate, right? >> i think it was 3% in the exit polls.
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remember, those are all likely to be republicans. last time around moore won by 4 points. what if you take 3 points away from moore and give them to the democrat. he goes from winning by 4 to losing by 2. neil: i don't know where the votes are coming from. we have jones ahead. it's very, very early on in the going. >> basically don't make anything out of these. these are the early votes being counted. it looks like five counties. four of them in the southern part of the state and one in the black belt green county. but we are not talking about any number of votes. basically less than a thousand votes. we'll see hundreds of thousands of votes cast. >> that was one of the issues. the voter turnout is likely to be given the national interest
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very high. secretary of state suggested it will be 25% turnout. that's a high number fear special election. it's closer to 60% in a presidential election. but an off-year election held in the month of december close to christmas. if it's in the black belt, good more jones. if it's in north alabama, good for moore. neil: how much is it a reflection on the president? >> if moore loses he will have lost because of who moore is and who's back moore, not the president himself. the president is popular in alabama. in a special election the republicans will turn out
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disproportionately. if this were the normal republican we wouldn't be talking about this. the last time the democrats won a statewide election was in 2006, and they lost every single statewide election since then. in the last couple elections there have been a number of races in which the democrats haven't even put up somebody. neil: it's jeff session's term through 2020. >> whoever is elect ld serve through the 2020 election for the remainder of jeff sessions' seat. it will be three years. and those are going to be potent years. if the republicans keep this seat, at the end of this senate election they could be up to 53,
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54, 55 seats. if they lose it they will be lucky to be at 52, 53 or 54. neil: so much more we are getting. 52-48 or 51-49. now you are beginning to understand why republicans are such a mad dash to get thanks cuts done. whoever wins in alabama may i pact where they go. and there is talk on the infrastructure measure that could get ride bipartisan support among democrats. they moisture might need that given a scaled down republican majority. but it's too early.
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neil: alabama voters made their statement. now we are counting their votes. deirdre bolton has been doing an
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analysis of those votes. deirdre: we are going to see what voters are telling us. they are saying that president trump is not a factor. we know the president has been vocal of moore and the moore campaign and they tried to make this race a referendum about the president so far. i heard karl rove say he disagrees with that point. but as far as the general analysis is showing, trump is not a factor is what most of voters are saying. if you go on to one of the biggest distractions or factors, the sexual misconduct allegations, you have yes clocking in at 51%. no at 43%. you had senator. shelby: say i can't bring myself
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to vote for moore. the u.s.a.g. sessions not sharing who he voted for. that's have much his right. but since alabama is his home state, people were expecting to have a little bit more entrance parent i. taking a look at how this shakes up and the effects it could have on the senate. allegations against moore and party control of the senate are the two lines i'm most of focused on. party control of the senate. more important for a lot of voters than the allegations against moore. that clouds the picture a little bit with having a non-president trump effect. but there you have it. party control of the senate. very important only after candidates rally. we talk about the issues facing the country. people still most of concerned about the economy. healthcare tying it up. and of course tax reform.
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we'll hear a lot from the president tomorrow. the economy, whether people have jobs, whether they feel secure in their jobs. front and center in voters' minds. neil: in the end it might come down to roy moore. do you think he's been vilified or victimized? it seems to dominate the theme in this race. when these accusations came out with underaged girls. all of a sudden, it hingessen whether people feel roy moore has gotten fair treatment or it's time for him to say good-bye. lee, the numbers seem to bear out that this will rest or fall
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on what people ultimately think of roy moore. >> absolutely. alabama is a republican state. only a quarter of them are democrats. for roy moore to win, it has to be a referendum on what people think of him as a person. his character is one that's really under question. it's important to folks. only half the people believe the allegations. neil: we don't like the national media or national republicans or establishment guys telling us how to vote. or are you going to go the route. saying these charges must have credibility. and we have to think about that as the signal we send. there is no gray area between us. >> i think people can say we don't want to hear from the d.c.
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and new york media. don't get involved in politics. it's our decision. a lot of voters are having a hard time stomaching the allegations against roy moore. the fox news poll shows a greater margin of people are starting to believe the allegations against him. how does that factor into the polls? are people forced to vote for some one like doug jones with whom they have such massive fundamental disagreements, particularly on abortion? it's sad we are in this two-party stranglehold. and that's one of the reasons why you didn't see a viable write-in candidate come forward. and you had mitch mcconnell and the republican establishment wringing their hands over that.
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neil: the president tried to stop that. he said the charges can't be proven. the fact of the matter is he's a better alternative than having a chuck schumer-nancy pelosi carbon copy. does that resonate? lea: a lot of people say the most of important thing is the republican party stay in power. they are voting for a party and their belief system. they are able to say i'm going to put my opinion of this man aside and hope for the best. hope he will step aside after he's elected. i think a lot of people are doing a lot of rationalizing. you see some of those voters. the decision they are faced with. if you are pro-life and believe abortion is murder. this something that's so
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fundamentally important to you. it's hard to understand if you don't share hat fundamental belief. it's hard to understand for americans to see how thesal bamiyand howthese alabamans are. there is so much condescension towards people on the right. that causes the right to want to rise up and stand up strong. neil: we can up gait you -- we can update you later in the hour. we don't know where these votes are coming from which has doug jones winning disproportionally.
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you don't want to necessarily glean too much from these early numbers. both cams have related to fox they are expecting a long night. as soon as we heard that we got alarmed. because we weren't necessarily planning on a long night. we weren't exactly planning on it. but if you we are looking at that possibility. you might take something for your heart... or joints. but do you take something for your brain. with an ingredient originally found in jellyfish, prevagen is the number one selling brain-health supplement in drug stores nationwide. prevagen. the name to remember.
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(dr. vasquez) it's going to be life-changing, and life-saving. ♪ neil: the battle is on. the question is no matter what happens tonight. 1% of the precincts are in. mitch mcconnell is set to hold a meeting with all republican senators if roy moore were to win. it would and moot point if
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democrats win. the president forced their hand by saying he beats the democrats. presidential historian doug wead *. and lee carter. republicans are betwict and between. i get feeling if they had their druthers, it would seem we note environment in which this is happening, right? >> yes. and we know anything can happen. the republicans can do whatever they want. their hand is not forced here. ted kennedy had a young lady die in his car when he abandoned her when he was drunk and he got re-elected. the mayor of washington, d.c. smoked crack cocaine with a
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prostitute and he got re-elected. barney frank had his live-in lover running a house of prostitution. neil: i know where you are going here. if that does not happen and moore were to lose tonight, i almost get the feeling there would be relief among a lot of republicans. do you? >> yes and go. it's interest -- yes and no. it's interesting to see democrats pivoting away from russia to become the party of moral values. the democrat party and their allies in the hollywood and the mainstream media, if they become the party of moral values, that's the equivalents of a triple axle, triple toe.
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i'm not very well informed but i can think a couple myself and i don't work for "the washington post." kennedy: i can see where he's going. i am wondering there is room in the sedan. it's interesting. i'm wondering if mitch mcconnell is exercising his options and if that includes obviously he has to be seated. that's a constitutional question that was settled in a supreme court decision in 1969. he will, if he's duly elected by the people of alabama. what can the republicans do? what are some of their options in order to save face? >> i think this is a real tragedy for the republicans if mooresmoore loses.
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so much is at stake because the president has all night so many of these republican senators. it counts for trump to survive this deep state attack. the judiciary. the barack obama appointments of federal judges are still impacting. and this tilts in the senate could impact the timing of trump trying to move the jew dish area. i think this is a real problem for trump to lose this seat if that's what happens. neil: it could explain why the administration is kicking around a infrastructure matter. lee: it could make things more difficult if moore wins. bust things are already difficult. there has been no slam dunk so far. if he doesn't win it will and relief to the republicans
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because then they have an excuse. they can talk about why there is credit lock. and it shows the democrats are the obstructionists. i think it would be and relief for the republicans baits would get all of this off their hands. the democrats have the chance to be the moral values party. it's a party with a moral come pass. at what point will they take a stands and say this is what we stand for. we have to do what's right by our morals. kennedy: i think if moore is defeated and jones is seated, you are going to see bipartisanship come back into fashion. because there will be total utility. it will be out of absolute necessity out of both parties. you have vulnerable democrats in both states.
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i think there is room, there are ways of crofting things and using the art of negotiation to bring people on. neil: doug, as a presidential historian, you are not look at alabama as a litmus test for the south in general. this isn't a measurable impactful situation. you are not look at this as a possible trendsetter development either way for the south, are you? >> no, i think this as extremely complex with so many jones and moore surrogates for so many forces. it's almost like five games of chess being played see you in mull taken wasly. evangelical christians are not happen i campers. they have seat bushes and the mccanes and roll any as having sacrificed moore. if moore wins the republican
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party is not saved from everything. they will still have to face bitterness within their own party. neil: 1% of the vote in. we can safely estimate. don't you hate it when they do that. obviously we can conclude. with doug jones the democrat leading roy moore in this case. but still early going on here. i don't know which way they would go depends on how they would see this race. we go 52-48, or 51-49. but they are probably weighing this as either they have a little bit more comfortable majority or less comfortable majority. either ware they seem on wringing their hands. it's still early.
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neil: still awaiting results. this could drag on a while. democrats as we have been explaining have issues to address as well. erika, it's no mystery that neither party is safe in that august chamber and beyond. but it would be tough for one side to start claiming to have the northerly high ground. there is a lot of this going around. >> that's one reason democrats pressured al franken to get out of the senate. they pushed him out the door so they could claim the moral high ground.
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both sides have their own scandals. the democrats were perfectly fine knowing what harvey weinstein was doing and they were fine with donald trump until he became a republican. and they are still fine with bill clinton. both sides tried this around the country. this is political opportunism. americans have a right to be cynical about politics. neil: senator gillibrand said she was looking at the clinton scandal and said he should have resigned at the time. donald trump got nasty in response to her. are we going to see this nasty give and take? lee: it seems to be that's the currency of the president. if you attack him he counter punches and he goes low.
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neil: did you read something more than what's on the surface to his tweet to jill brands? lee: i did. and i have to say, i'm really disappointed. i try to be fair and reasonable and be as objective as i can. when i see a tweet like that i cannot interpret it any other way. if he misspoke and he meant something else i would like him to clarify it. >> the white house said the president didn't mean it that way. neil: he has used that terminology referring mitt romney going on his knees. you could make the argument that that's just the way he speaks. >> he also likes dmawgs his tweets.
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kennedy: no, that's exactly what you gather from that. and that's the point of those implications as you are supposed to infer exactly what the president is implying. the thing he forgets, he forgets that he's president. because he's been consuming and analyzing news and politics for so long and so actively with a certain style, that i think sometimes it sort of slips his grasp that he is in fact the president of the united states and that means something. it's an incredibly important job and it requires a different time of comportment that you would have. neil: eric, on this matter, i'm not saying there is a method to the madness of the tweets. but if republicans will say in defense of his remarks that this
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is the vernacular. this is the way we are communicating with ourselves and throwing and hurling insults at each other. whether it's a roy moore who tbhints this contest or others excited for all types of things. it's across the board and no party can claim the moral high ground. what do you think of that? >> i agree. no party can. we elected him to be president of the united states. he's a reflection of us. democrats can argue he didn't get the majority. neither party has the moral high ground at this point. democrats can thumb their nose at president trump. he has built on the precedent set by president obama. the next president will build on the tweets by donald trump. and they will deny he's just like donald trump.
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neil: just got out of that one. big day for tax reform coming up tomorrow. the house ways and means chair man kevin brady is willing to trade trade off a lot of stuff including a lower top rate. but a lot depends on this contest, whether he can deliver the goods. i'll explain after this. it's easy to think that all money managers are pretty much the same. but while some push high commission investment products, fisher investments avoids them. some advisers have hidden and layered fees. fisher investments never does. and while some advisers are happy to earn commissions from you whether you do well or not, fisher investments fees are structured so we do better when you do better. maybe that's why most of our clients come from
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[♪] neil: now the race has turned with about 5% of the votes in. we have roy moore leading over doug jones. but it's way too early to project the winner. lee carter, the math has shifted again. what are you look for. one of the things karl rove was saying is the urban area is where doug jones will have to build up bigly. he has had a lot of crucial players doing that for him. many are arguing he should have done it earlier. but handy cap that. >> it will have to be played out in the cities.
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soon as we see this in the big cities we'll have a sense of what that turnout is. that will be critical. the question is, was everything that happened of any to -- all of the celebrity support and media, cory booker went down. if all of that can't turn out the democrats. neil: all the major democratic candidates were there. lee: every celebrity. nobody has ever cared about alabama this much ever. if the democrats cannot turn this vote, then they have to take a hard look at the party and how that's resonating with the american people. here is an election, you should win it. if they can't, they are -- kennedy: they didn't do tonight georgia in the special election.
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neil: with the exception of virginia and that state which has gone purple. kennedy: it's blue. neil: they have not been able to deliver an overwhelming majority of big wins. >> assuming people who might have something in common with you and might have voted with you in the past, are morally obligated to do the same. they sort of demand that people fall in lock step which is counter to american individualism. there is nothing wrong with that. that's how hollywood is supposed to be. it's suppose to be based on creativity and individual thinking. if roy moore wins, part of it will be the resentment, and not just new york and d.c. don't assume because you feel special and you live in a bubble that everyone else will slurp your kool-aid and vote like you
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tell them. neil: or feel preached to. a lot of the tracking polls said we don't like people assuming certain things about us. that resonated. lee: if you watch the focus groups with the voters of alabama. they feel so junked, so condescended and so mississippi understood. and -- so misunderstood. when people say if they elect roy moore, this is the state of america. they will vote for a child molester and making judgments about these people. this isn't what is happening with these people. they are wrestling with hard decisions. it's so much more than just about this man. kennedy: and they feel like they have a gun to their head. part of that frustration. you try and make a choice like
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this. what would you do if you were put in this same position. a lot of people feel like you are condoning the views of doug jones. there are a lot of people in that state that just don't. so we'll see what happens. that's why you are seeing so much rationalization. particularly from people outside the state who are trying to sell roy moore for those who feel bad about it. neil: with one in 10 votes is in to us. liberty mutual saved us almost eight hundred dollars when we switched our auto and home insurance.
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neil: do we know whose voice that is? it's amazing. we haven't any idea. what a great voice. brilliant. this race is close again. just for a brief time on the commercial break there was a 10-point gap favoring moore. now we are down to a 1.5 gap. you can manage the move at election headquarters. the latest from roy morehead
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quarters with hillary vaughn. >> you are right, when that lead went up on the screen watching the election results roll in, they are engaged in prayer right now. but i did talk to a senior advisor of the moore campaign. he tells me they are fixing to win. i asked why they think that. he cite one example. orange beach web said 70% voter turnout leads them to believe they will win in a landslide. they say orange beach is a well weather -- a bellwether for the republican vote in alabama. i talked to roy moore's youngest sister. he says this morning he was at calm and at peace. he has put this race in the hands of god and he has no intention of taking it out now. a lot of voters here praying for him and cheering him on.
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neil: deirdre, what are you finding out? reporter: as far as favorable opinions go, you can see jones topping here 51. president trump we can't be remiss in not acknowledging his presence in the state. moore here at 38%. most of voters are telling us that actually jones is too liberal and moore too conservative. moving on to strong moral character, doug jones, this is a yes or no question. you can see how that was asked directly. doug jones 59% saying yes. as for roy moore almost the same in the no category.
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as far as which party controlling the senate. you can see where it's strong along republican lines. this is a deep red state. gop candidates of courses specially in the presidential elections, it goes back decades. each one getting 60% or more. this is important to people on the ground as far as how they see the control of the senate going forward. young people characterized as 45 or undergoing for doug jones. if all of those people show you have that is going to be a big boon for the democrats. neil: very interesting. it's all about whose voters from more jazzed. lee carter and kennedy. noelle, you told me over the year, those voters who are more excited about their candidate or cause will walk over broken glass to make their point.
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who is in this case? >> this this is a horrible situation to be in for a g.o.p. and alabama and i've said it before but i'm really irritated at governor ivy ivy. this is -- she did it by not stepping in and she actually has the nerve to say i hope i don't get in trouble for speaking out about this because i am a g.o.p. fund-raiser indicted to work with races. she said she actually, she's also let it be in some of the victims statements but yet was going to go ahead and let the alabama voters carry this through. it wouldn't be this way of steve bannon didn't create the movement to challenge luther strange in a stronghold red state. >> was she aware of these allegations?
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stu: this was after-the-fact that the sad thing is on thing is than the other thing is roy moore and steve bannon plucked him out and said yea we are running up against luther strange but steve bannon really did his homework. back in 2012 when he ran for chief justice against a guy named fans he barely eke it out. i think he got around 52% in that election. neil: is that the four-person? >> yeah so i think it's very adjusting that he picked this guy are really didn't overwhelmingly beat a democrat. neil: he could times could still on the planning. >> outside another thing is really interesting here doug jones raised $11 million another thing is -- neil: that was all pretty much on the outside. >> this is now a national race and the other thing is doug jones got $5 million for tv ads
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compared to roy moore spending $800,000. neil: is that right? in the end if doug jones were to succeed lee carter you could say well outside money quickly targeted surgically spent is going to change things. help in virginia and it could be a sign of things to come. >> it absolutely could be. i think now we are seeing that every single race is becoming an national attention. the phenomenon of people are fascinated. they don't understand the american voter anymore. they'd understand why people are behaving the way they are. i think if you were to look at this and say you should project any kind of behavior on this election you are going to make some mistakes here because this is a very special circumstance. the outside money might have been a factor but the bottom line is he's really got a tough decision for republicans in alabama. i don't envy them and i think it's difficult for them.
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the issues on the table for them are so important. you look at what they think about the economy times economy and to think about health care and think about abortion and those issues that are so important you are saying that's more important to me the person themselves. neil: my colleague on "fox news" saying there's almost no way a candidate can win when they win this times the seat in the nafta deal with what is the fallout for roy moore victory or they lose it and they have margins legislatively. >> it's an uphill battle politically for the president and congressional senate republicans. a couple of things here one is the timing of the "washington post" story. neil: absolutely. >> if they were known statewide why didn't the "washington post" releases and do their homework when roy moore was in a battle with -- luther strange. when the reasons why people in alabama are rightly upset and nasa did not necessarily with
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the allegations which more people are inclined to believe but also the timing of that and it's a really interesting thing. if doug jones winds and you were saying earlier this isn't some of the other races we have seen like democrats say this is said and we can turn the tide if jon ossoff winds or whatever the case may be. neil: we were not about an individual. kennedy: and we see the lead has changed. roy moore is holding onto it now however i'm wondering is it democrats are saying all we need is a scandal a late scandal at the buzzer to turn the favor to our states where we can times can never win and that's disgusting and scummy way to win. neil: if it's going to make a difference for you let's say of roy moore were to win when all is said and done how does that change? you bundle all the money that people put on different bets for different horses. i dare say they counted they think will win.
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lee yes but this is an exception to the rule. neil: they would prefer the democrat winning, would they? or they take this as a loss we don't really wants but we don't want a few years of this guy in united states senate. >> i feel this is almost like a culture war that they wage instead of the political war. neil: who has raged it? noel it's not a democrat republican thing now. subculture were with public morality. with that said national donors which that is what i do i handle national donors, national donors would probably not touch it but they have is they haven't but i will say this. if for some reason jones eakes it out and he wins he will represent alabama.
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he will have a lot of pressure on him. if he wants to keep that seat, if he wants to look at changing the map for that then he may not vote with the democratic party always. neil: by the nature where he is by the margins of donald trump on an event before they tend to be not quite the color blue. noelle: i want to represent all people from our stated and i want to help everybody so he's running as a centrist. neil: of all those are leaning would it not lead to donald trump on the tax-cut? states are up for grabs next year and if they are feeling the pressure they could have voted for that tax cut they might still rework the version. lee they didn't this time but absolutely there is a bipartisan sweep particularly for those three senators that we talk about. they are very vulnerable and
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advocates closer to their elections i think you are definitely going to see movement but republicans also have to be adept at figuring out a way of making their platforms more attractive without just inciting their assistance which is getting very boring. lee i resent the fact that it almost cheapens the religious movement. neil: who does? lee: roy moore. he's really doing a disservice to evangelicals. i just had to put that out there there. we are gathering around and praying about this like doug jones is not a moral man or a christian man. the christian movement is here. it's really not fair to place that on the good voters of alabama like this is the only way. neil: the whole world is lecturing them. they are dealing with that, aren't they?
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we are at 26% of the voters right now and i am telling you what is it me or are there wide swings? i guarantee the commercial break you will be event. we go back and forth and we are a long way from being done. it's too early to project the winner. you never know, things could change. we are a long ways from done. stay with us. with most airline credit cards, you only earn double miles when you buy stuff from that airline. is this where you typically shop? is this where anyone typically shops? it's time to switch to the capital one venture card. with venture, you earn unlimited double miles on every purchase, everywhere, every day...
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neil: okay, so far so good for roy moore edits the third of the way through the process. we are not in any position to project a winner here but roy moore is leading 52% to 46.7% with a little over three and 25,000 votes cast here. really he had in excess of a million when it's all said and done. it seems to be going to write more who has arrived in montgomery alabama. i wonder feca came by horse? i got the impression the horse wasn't stopping so i suggested for the show to take me to the set. the crew tried very hard but couldn't find a volunteer.
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we have politics director best-selling author and all things politics. doesn't have to come in on on te high horse just walks in. larry sabado. thanks for coming. >> thank you so much. i took the car. neil: i admire that. i really mired that. let's get a sense of this. i get the impression that if you are republicans it's a no-win kind of a night because if you win and you keep that seat then there's the issue of how this sorts out and how the establishment has to deal with this going forward. on the flipside if you lose your down to 51-49 majority. >> delete me they would rather have the seat. when you got a 52-48 senate and you were facing strong headwinds next year you don't want to lose
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his seat you absolutely should have and it won't come up again until 2020. now look. it could be completing his term but i don't know what's going to happen. it is alabama. one would expect republican to win a statewide race in alabama. i know it's closer than usual but if he gets elected to the senate then you have stage ii. we have no idea how the senate will treat moore once he gets there. are they really going to recommend what some are pushing for behind the scenes that he be expelled? if they do that they will trigger a new special election with another nominee, different nominee. neil: wouldn't they have to launch an ethics investigation change the rules for that because that's behavior that allegedly occurred decades ago. >> they would have to change loads of things. when the leadership wants something usually it happens at
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least within the caucus and who knows how many democrats would vote for expulsion. you have to have, it's not just the majority. all i can say is this is the beginning of a long story whether moore wins or loses but between the two alternatives the republicans would much rather have the seat. moore will end up voting for most of the republican positions. neil: i know it's a weird way to guess that how would he vote for this tax-cut? republicans are moving fast and furious to get it out of the way to make a moot point for whoever seeded in the alabama senate spot but how do you think he will vote? >> since it's purely theoretical and we don't really know how he will vote i would say he would vote yes, there's really no question about it. neil: i just wonder the establishment wants it so much you could make me argue that he
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would want to so much but by the same token donald trump wants it a lot, right? >> that's a key right there. trump is gone out on a limb for moore. he has done things his own staff told them not to -- not to do and we all know the history of that but because of that i think moore i think is going to be responsive to calls from donald trump. trump may have too wooed him personally and bring them over to the white house to eat lunch or dinner but in the end he will get his vote. neil: you don't think if moore lost it would have her flexion on donald trump? >> look whenever presidents endorsed candidate loses they take a lump. that comes with the territory that the lumps go away in a few days. we have so many things that happen i'll be surprised to people outside of alabama remember this in two weeks. it's christmas in two weeks just in case you are counting.
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neil: i knew where you were going with that. your comments were a little hurtful but i love you nonetheless. it's good seeing you again. >> it's good seeing to you. neil: to your point lead a seed is a seed and you want to hang onto that seat. lee: yeah. that's the bottom line here. i think that's why so many people look at this and say how can you put that above all else except for so many people what is more important is not just the person but what the outcome is. people are really feeling hurt in the economy and they want to hope for the economic reform that the republican party is springy and they are still going to vote for that seat to be republican, not for that manned roy moore. neil: i do think with all the incidents and everything else the party is not the moral high ground here. >> this election is a gift to democrats either way because of jones wins they will whittle
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that majority down and things look like they are going in the democrats direction. if moore wins he is now the poster child. neil: my other point is saying it's hardly the vatican with the democrats. they each have a lot of issues and they are hardly wants to point fingers at either. noel it was that they are taking action. it is for me to movement all the way to the bank and right now it's not popular to be accused of things that roy moore has been accused up and sitting there and acting like it's not going on. number one is roy moore wins the race the g.o.p. brand loses and is roy moore whence that --
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loses the race and some of the senators say get out of here the g.o.p. brand will survive. we already have trouble attracting women minorities and other things without having this cloud over our heads. this is not a rah rah moment and some of the senators that would embrace if it doesn't matter how he does. he's going to vote down the line of alabama for what the president wants because the president is red white and blue g.o.p. platform. neil: there are a lot of conservative senators who don't vote. noelle: but he is red white and blue pretty much on the platform of what the republican party stands for so if the presents were given advance i think roy moore we don't know pretty much what would follow suit. kennedy: that's what the president was banking on the that's why when he saw the tide shift in moore was recovering the president said if i endorsed
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him he will all may and i will get his vote on every critical issue and that's insurance for his agenda. neil: you are probably confused by a couple of things. the screen versus the vote count the way you see the in alabama the show's roy moore voter analysis that goes along the numbers that you see. right now democrat doug jones is now leading moore in some key areas according to this analysis analysis. because of that despite the numbers you are seeing right now about 43% and we have other data where we look at it where it could go any way right now. roy moore arriving at his headquarters but we should stress what we have been saying throughout. their different ways ways you can analyze the data when it comes than. we just analyze it differently in different news organizations analyze it differently.
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it looks like a comfortable lead for roy moore on paper in the evening with half the votes in. we have at their precincts reporting or analysis showing that doug jones is in the lead and we are not about to make a call. the upside for you we don't know what is going on. i accept i don't conquer the mountain like i used to. i even accept i have a higher risk of stroke due to afib, a type of irregular heartbeat not caused by a heart valve problem. but whatever trail i take, i go for my best.
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neil: right now we have rhyme or leading in this race with half of the voting right now but the reason you might have been think if used before is that we have various different analytics here that are involved in this show doug jones waiting. doesn't necessarily mean that doug jones or roy moore have one. this means there different ways to get the data and from the data we are getting we have jones leading in not trailing and that's why sometimes the numbers look odd. moore seems to have a
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comfortable lead. that's because the data doesn't indicate from our analyses that he has closed the deal. if he can just hang on we want to make sure we are right. there's one thing about being first but everything about being right. to the latest from doug jones headquarters we have jeff with the latest. but you have? >> i want to put some meat on the bones of what you were saying meal. this is what they are looking they are looking at doug jones headquarters. for example here are the numbers and some of what you're talking about i suspect are the same they are seeing here. for example jefferson county, that's birmingham. that's where we are. that's a county that hillary clinton won over donald trump last year by 20,000 votes. with a third of the vote in here in jefferson county doug jones as winning it by 33,000 votes. we extrapolate that out that's a
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win for him by 100,000 votes in a county that hillary clinton won by 20,000. of course she got her kicked in the overall election but still far better. madison county and you know what what, madison county that's up in huntsville north of us here. that is a county that trump one, fairly big a year ago and now it doug jones as winning that with 41% of the vote in with 10,000 votes. here's the other piece of it that they are looking at. there are still a lot of votes out in birmingham. that's jefferson county where he is doing really well, jones edison and huntsville there's a lot of votes out. other counties where moore is doing well most of the vote has been counted and i'm trying to get those counties up so i can tell you which ones they are. for example morgan county moore is kicking jones but in morgan
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county. there's 95% of the photo guardian. in limestone county is winning big bear, 100% of the vote is in. my point here is a lot of the moore vote has been counted already. a lot of the jones vote is still out there. whether that comes in for him or not for the current trends holding up they may be in for a party here. it's way too soon to say but that is what they are looking at here and that's what they think right now. neil: very interesting and that explains why we as an organization are hesitant to jump on the moore lead. thank you my friend very much. it doesn't mean anything and other areas. it's confirmed elsewhere that the moore vote is accounted for in some areas because of that is the case there's little opportunity for the moore vote to run up if that is the case.
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there could be every opportunity for the jones vote to increase. we will get you our next guest. what do you read from that and that it might be not reflected in the numbers we are seeing now now, the better than expected numbers jones is amassing in these urban areas. noelle: is going to come down to five basic things and that's going to be what women in the suburbs think it's going to come down to the black vote and it's going to come down to a lot of the millennials and what they are saying. this is interesting news. the other way you want to look at it maybe is down to the members where you have got $5 million in advertising from the jones team compared to $800,000 and i think roy moore was just kind of riding the wave of the g.o.p.. when you have jones you really have to work it and that's why they raised $11 million whether
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or not it came from outside funds or whatever. doesn't matter. kennedy: can i ask you a quick question? obviously republicans have had a better time raising money than democrats. if jones wins your fund-raiser what does that do to republican fund-raising efforts? how? how to use bennett jones when your favorite? noelle: here's the thing. this is a strange race in itself. it's not going to do anything nationwide. democrats are not going to go now we really have a chance. this was a fluke. kennedy: is there a window of opportunity fund-raising wise for republicans? noelle: we are outranking the democrats by leaps and bounds. we have a billionaire who is picking up the phone and saying hey can you do me a favorite? can you help me with this? is a lot of fun to come to an rnc fund-raiser when you have a really cool billionaire is at the helm. i'm not dissing it.
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he is a fantastic guy and i'm proud of the rnc that that the dnc who did they have that is really mastering that fund-raising, that passion to draw the dollars and? that's why you are seeing record numbers at the rnc but to your question that is not going to, does this alabama deal the fact that doug jones outraised -- that has nothing to do was with what's going on and nothing to do with anything going for it. neil: i have some people e-mailing me at about the importance of this vote that jones is picking up in the various. it dwarfs the numbers that hillary clinton got. wouldn't that be reflected in the totals that we are getting anyway or is it the kind of thing that is added on later? lee: it's not necessarily all reported in yet. there are things they are going to be counted in places where it's not fully reported yet. we are going to see some of these big ships and one of the
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things that i was looking at earlier and saying i'm not sure what's going to happen tonight. the level of enthusiasm that came out for jones was really high and quinnipiac polling. if you have a high voter turnout it will more likely go towards him. if you look at the numbers and you think how could be possible that a republican does not win alabama? how is it possible that a democrat wins when you have 30% of registered voters that are democrat. noelle: it's because of what happened to roy moore we do have people like charles barked he coming down going to vote for my guy jones. not because doug jones is so awesome it's because of how bad roy moore is. lee: can i say something about that strategy bdu -- being different from northam. northam release that negative adding conjunction with an outside group showing a fan trying to mow down minority
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children in a pickup truck. it was effective. it was really negative and jones has stayed away from a stuff almost knowing that if he got as negative as some of these other races it would activate republicans. lee: this is the bottom line. this isn't a story that needed put in the mind of a voter in. you can always go further into the gutter as we have learned from paul hicks. neil: i don't mean to ignore what's going on but i do need to explain this. account for jones in the airy worries picking up bigger numbers than hillary clinton den when she was in in the race agan donald trump has not been reflected. it has not been reflected in the totals and that's why that's why you're getting two different reads from our analysis. it is not competed that into the aggregate numbers you are looking at which seems to indicate jones has a bigger
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total then it would appear. it's going to change those results so much so to the point that jones will be leading and not moore as it appears to be. i know it's confusing. there's no way to figure this out. it looks like 62% of voters in but it's where we are coming from this crucial. our analysis is from areas that have not been totally tallied. jones is getting the numbers and not moore. that doesn't mean that jones is one any more than it means moore has sealed the deal. we don't know. our computers report differently differently. it's getting late and we will have more after this. today we're out here with some big news. jardiance is the only type 2 diabetes pill
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neil: it's rhyme or leaving with two-thirds of the vote in but in jefferson county the big tally that jones is giving that is getting all this attention right now. if doug jones keeps up the pace he's maintaining in the series we can extrapolate from jefferson county we only have 20% in total and if he were made made -- to maintain that as it was explained to me he would pick up considerable ground to the point he's actually leading in this race. there's no way he can buy that instant extrapolation but it's based on numbers that hillary clinton had in the same area in the same county two years ago. he is dwarfing those performances. that is what has people thinking this is a heavily populated area of the most populous county in alabama.
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it just extrapolate that to the rest of the vote that hasn't come in yet. that pace if you were to maintain it would bring him closer in this race even by our estimates leading in this race which is why we have no idea the end of this. i want to go to pastor -- backing roy moore and aware of the enzi miss the republican party has. pastor how do you advice those republicans if roy moore were to pull this off, this win tonight and how they should respond expect react? >> neal first of all thanks for having me i want to clarify i have not endorsed any candidate in this race at all but i do believe republicans need to listen to what the voters say and i think the tightness of this race
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>> i mean, there's a zero tolerance level, but the dilemma is do you go with moore who vehemently denies these serious allegations of child abuse? or do you go with doug jones, who openly and proudly embraces the most severe kind of child abuse, and that is abortion. killing a child. neil: it sounds like you voted for roy moore. >> well, i don't live in alabama, so i didn't vote. neil: okay. i stand corrected. but if you had your druthers, that's who you would vote for. i apologize. >> it would be an uneasy choice, but again, you are always voting between the lesser of two evils and to sit out a vote or to write in somebody else's name is to allow the greater of two evils to come into office. neil: is it your sense that the religious vote is sharply divided, if not kind of traumatized on this issue
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because no matter how they go, they're going to be wrestling with it, and if any of these allegations prove true, and it's too early to know for sure outside of saying if roy moore is the united states of senator certain going to be investigations, that it is going to get nasty. >> i think it is. i think there's a real unease among evangelicals about this. i mean, after all, neil, it was jesus who said it would be better to have a stone tied around your neck and cast into the sea than to harm a child. that's the issue. but again, when you say like doug jones does that if a mother doesn't like the sex of her child, the gender, she's free to abort it, in the 30th week of a pregnancy, get rid of a child, to many evangelicals that's barbaric and i think if moore prevails tonight, it will be because evangelicals have rejected jones abortion views.
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neil: we will watch closely. i'm sorry about my alabama confusion, but thank you. very very good seeing you. i appreciate you taking the time. >> thank you very much neil. neil: tight race going on, 8 point lead for moore. there's all sorts of different ways i could crunch these numbers. we're bottom line not ready to crunch them for anybody yet. we're 47 minutes into the second hour since polls closed and no one is really sure how it is going to end. stay with us. is this a phone?
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neil: all right. key in the race right now is where the remaining vote, the remaining 29% of it will be coming from. we're told a lot of it will be coming from jefferson county which as far as alabama goes, is a strong hope for democratic candidates as possible and the reason why the doug jones democratic folks are excited is because he is getting numbers that hilary clinton wishes she could have gotten a couple of years ago, but again, that's why people are leaping to that to say he will narrow that gap. jones will narrow the gap and might even win this thing even though we're only about 3/4 of the way through here and it shows moore up appreciably. that could change. but too early to tell. meanwhile, want to go to the washington examiner who has been following this story very
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closely. phillip, so much hinges on this race, if you think about it, not the least of it that very rushed tax cut plan that we're told is going to be, you know, conferenced out maybe as soon as tomorrow? you know, debated a little bit early next week and on the president's desk the following week, before christmas. is all that doable because it seems like they are rushing this whole election? >> first of all, we should all be returning -- if this was a normal election cycle to normal programming. this is the sort of race that would be a snoozer if it wasn't for the allegations. neil: you are exactly right. >> would we be focusing on this if it wasn't in 2017 and the allegations that have surfaced? we heard majority leader mcconnell talk about earlier today he is adamant that luther strange who is the incumbent senator is going to finish his term and that the next senator whoever wins tonight is not going to be seated until 2018. so republicans are very confident that this race regardless of who wins or loses,
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they are not going to impact tax reform going forward. neil: do we know when, whoever wins is seated? i'm told it won't be until january. >> that's right. and mcconnell, he has the prerogative here. he is not going to seat doug jones or roy moore until the new year is rung in. why would he? right? this is 2017. this is the legislative agenda of the trump administration. they need a win here. and to rush, you know, the swearing-in process of the next senator, that would just endanger the agenda they have been working for for this long. so i think tax reform is not going to be impacted on this based off of the majority leader's earlier comments today. neil: you know, the president kind of forced this issue by accepting moore, saying he's the best shot we've got, and that all these other charges notwithstanding he's the best bet there and he kind of got the rest of the republican
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leadership in line, grudgingly so where they would say all right let alabama voters decide, but i don't imagine if roy moore wins they are going to be so happy about it. what do you think? >> it is going to be a lonely time for roy moore in conference. i don't think he will make a lot of friends. especially when you have gardner saying he should not have been seated to begin with. >> -- mitch mcconnell? >> exactly. it is going to be an awkward conversation in the majority leader's office. regardless of who wins, i think the republicans are going to have to look at the whip count, see who is actually in the senate and see what they can do with their goals for 2018. what is going to happen regardless of this race is it is not going to impact tax reform, but it could have a significant effect on welfare reform going into 2018. neil: yeah, we will watch very very closely. phillip, thank you very much. obviously this race tightening up a little bit now. maybe this is a reflection of that jefferson county vote that
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is very favorable to doug jones. do you think, lee, that this is why we are seeing this narrowing because it is coming from those areas where jones is picking up what hilary clinton only wishes she could have? >> yeah, i think there's no question. i think that if this is the trend that we're going to see, there's a good chance that moore could lose. in many ways i think that's something that the republican party really needs to -- to come to terms with because if moore does lose, i think they are going to have to take a close look at themselves and not make assumptions that we can just do anything and win because of the policies by themselves. they have to, you know, there's a moral compass that has come with the republican party for as long as i can remember that just doesn't seem to be there. it's not just about winning. neil: too soon to say, but i mean it shouldn't even be a contest if you think about it. >> in a place like alabama, absolutely not, which just goes to show how quickly things can change. it is interesting because harvey weinstein has done so much
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damage to hollywood and to democrats that he used to donate money to, but because of the climate that the accusations against him have created, i think democrats might be thanking him if doug jones in fact squeaks out a victory in alabama, and i think no one will be more surprised than doug jones himself. neil: all right. real quick point? >> well, i just think this is nuts because there's no way -- i'm a numbers girl and there's no way to predict this. this is such an emotional vote. neil: okay. that is narrowing though and that could be jefferson county and that could be what we were talking about and that could be why this is narrowing and why we're back for another hour, after this.
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neil: all right. there's where we stand right now in this race as we go back and forth with 77% of the vote now in in alabama. roy moore is leading, not by as much as he did before but a lot of this could change based on results we're getting from democratic stronghold or at least stronger hold in alabama, be that as it may in jefferson county. we're going to get to that in a second. hillary vaughan on the latest from the roy moore headquarters and how they are weighing this back and forth. hillary? >> hey, neil, well, judge roy moore is here. he actually mingled with the crowd much to their amusement. there were a lot of cheers. now he's back in the war room with all of his close


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