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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  November 6, 2018 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

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filled out his vote and absentee ballot last week, sent it to the state of new york. so did the first lady, melania trump. neil? neil: i understand he will watch fox business, not fox news. did you know fox news is covering this thing too? >> i think it is probably there, here, maybe some other places, right? neil: i don't know. charles payne, did you know that? to you, bud. charles: i had no idea. anyway we have it covered. good afternoon, i'm charles payne. this is "making money." including a record breaking election coming to a close. this is about the trump effect as our president makes voting great again. huge turnouts expected from boat sides. dot pollsters have it right? will we see a blue wave or a red wave? will resistance message be enough when the economy is so strong? who will get out hispanics,
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blacks, young people? or will the storms keep people home? we're awaiting all the answers and more on "making money." breaking down what the media hype is keeps hyping as the most consequential election of our lifetime, bring in the panel, former speechwriter amy holmes, "forbes" contributor rick unger, morgan ortega, and jessica tarlov. most consequential election of our lifetime. >> ever. >> ever. charles: what are we expecting. the type of money that is poured into it, feels like some power ful people are looking for powerful outcomes. >> we're interesting talking about the senate, do republicans get 53, 54, 55, and talking about the house how much
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democrats take over and by how much, what i'm watching is the governors races. the democrats are poised to do much better than they have past few cycles. republicans have owned governors races. there are 12 where it is dead-even or leading. seven of nine open seats where republicans are leading. florida, georgia, gotten a lot of hype for candidates there, incredibly close races. as this will be the most important election of our lifetime for the house and senate, watch the governor races. charles: this is something president trump has done to this country. so ironic, all of the money, all efforts gone to get people to go out and vote, president trump has done that he galvanized this country on one thing, going out to vote. >> when you said something the president has done i was going a different way, but you're right, he has gotten people out to
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vote. morgan is a very smart analyst. shes is. the action is, we're coming into a period of gerrymandering. the election choices this year will have a lot to say about that. you're right, i was at the polls this morning. i was blown away. i'm on the upper west side of new york. we know that is liberal territory. i did not expect to see what i saw. charles: you guys were probably serving expresso. holding someone's yorkie while they voted. >> i did hold a yorkie. >> i had no line, upper east side. charles: so, amy, you know about the internals about this stuff more than most people. >> a little bit. charles: polls more than most people. what do you think? >> i will not make any predictions. 2016 blew everything away. go back to morgan about the governor's races, florida, for example, neck-and-neck. florida, 2020, can steer a part
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either way, a purple state. oregon, deep blue, democratic governor. guess what her negatives are through the roof. sky-high. even portlanders, people with the knows rings and tattoos, they're sick of it. they are sick of it. they are talking about crossing the line to vote for moderate republican. this is a race where actually local politics matter. i think it could be a bellwether for the west coast. charles: jessica, it wasn't long ago, maybe six weeks or so, where the blue wave would be governors, the house and the senate. feels like now what i'm hearing a lot of liberal commentators say, well, if the dems take the house, that is referendum a negative pushback against trumpianism. i don't think so. if republicans keep the senate where president trump campaigned very hard that could still be something of a win for him, wouldn't it? >> he will tell us that, certainly if they gain more seats, two or three.
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democrats have a very tough night ahead in the senate with 10 democrat senators defending seats in red states trump won by over double digits, by double digits. that is difficult field for them. morgan is totally right on point, looking at governors races, andrew gillum, and stacey abrams. the oregon point, my parents are in oregon, to see if knows ring votes breaking for a moderate democrat. i think democrats are always going to be more enthusiastic before the end of the night, right, talk to make sure people are enthused, let's go out if we vote we can really do this. when your job is on the line, late-night commentating you want to be more cautious, you're about to see donald trump on stage 2:00 in the morning you didn't expect to. six weeks ago turn out number, young people registration, the trend line is working in our favor at this moment. >> interestingly enough, early
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data with early voting shows republicans are very well, early voting shows them way out ahead of democrats which is reversal of historic trend. >> i thought a couple days ago the republicans were about 1 is .7 percentage points ahead of democrats. we had a slight edge right now, mostly applause of florida and texas. gop enthusiasm post-brett kavanaugh hearings you're totally right that way. it has gone up. charles: what happened, rick, to the democratic party if the republicans keep the house and senate? >> you know, nothing that hasn't already happened to the democratic party. charles: will this be moment of maybe reflection, hey, okay, maybe we don't need a bunch of 70, 80-year-olds leading us anymore? maybe need fresh faces, fresh ideas? >> as somebody approaching 70 i hope you're wrong. that certainly could be the case. we've all been so focused on the republican party these past couple years. you heard me say it, the
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democrats have big issues. if it were to happen, i don't think it is going to, i do think the democrats pull out a win in the house, not the senate, we'll probably trip along on merry way having discussions with you, people like you, whether or not our party is moving towards democratic socialist thing or if that is overstated. >> rick, even if democrats capture the house, what is their message? they have been campaigning on resistance. >> health care. amy it is health care. >> message will have to be health care. charles: jessica, admit health care started polling pretty well four weeks ago. then democrats started getting out some messaging about health care. is that really, is that really what they're message is? is there anything else about jobs. immigration, foreign policy? >> it is all, health care is also an economic issue. you and i have been talking about for years now. democrats are consistently messaging on health care for months because it is our party's number one polling issue.
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the change which works to democrat favor is now republicans, number one or two issue for them as well. that is why you see republicans out on the trail lying that they have always wanted to protect preexisting conditions when they wanted to gut obamacare. charles: everybody was being nice now you had to say someone is lying. >> but they were lying. >> liberals, we agree. charles: amy, rick, morgan, jessica. florida always a battleground state. spotlight as election cycle, talking about bruising campaigns for the senate and governor. kristina partsinevelos live in orlando with the latest from there. kristina. reporter: i'm live right now. may not seem too busy around me. i'm in the middle of a parking lot. that is not any indication of the enthusiasm here because a lot of people already voted. if you count the early voters, those sent their vote via mail, then this morning we're seeing certain areas. i'm in orange county, right now in orlando, you're seeing numbers for orange county almost
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50%, 50% of the region of registered voters have already voted. makes sense why people are taking a break in the midday. it is quite warm here now. if you look at marion county, seeing that number at 49.3% of registered voters. last the seminole county, also very high above 53%. so very, very strong numbers. it is a tight race. i know that you and your panel are talking about the governor race between andrew gillum and ron desantis. they have spent or raised almost $119 million on their race. they're pretty much on both ends of the spectrum, the political spectrum the you have got andrew gillum, mayor of tallahassee, progressive, pushing for higher minimum wage, medicare for all. you have ron desantis, 40 years old. he is a trump ally. focusing on not increases corporate taxes, really focusing on the economy. you have two sides, but it is definitely an enthusiastic
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environment based positive people i spoke to earlier this morning. one woman said honestly there are too many issues to even list right now as to why she is going to the polls. it is just, economy a major factor. equality, race being another factor. and then you also have immigration, health care and then within florida, the algae program over here come up quite a bit with a lot of voters. this is a swing state. we know this could set the tone for the 2020 elections. why it is so important. and yet, we don't know where it is heading. it is tight though. send it back to you. charles: kristina, thank you very, very much the markets are up today, how will it look tomorrow, no matter which party takes control of congress? where should you look to put your money? that is what we're here to do on this show and we'll do that next. ♪ think again. it's time to shake up your lineup.
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neil: charles: market trading slightly higher. investors bracing, some maybe exhaling because of outcome of midterm elections but what happens, right, if this blue wave goes on? what happens if the gop pulls an upset and keeps both chambers? the bottom line is no matter what the scenario is, people will want to know where to put their money come tomorrow morning. we have bellpointe asset
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strategist, david nelson, money map chief technical strategist d.r. barton joining me now. we know the scenarios. first one, conventional wisdom, dems get the house, gop keeps the senate. what does that mean for the market, the economy overall? >> i think charles, if that, the markets already says priced in. we'll find out tonight it is not priced in. if the numbers come in, dems will win the house, the market is going to take a drop in the overnight. it will be matter of degrees. if they take it by a lot, if they get a big mandate, we'll see a much bigger drop. if only by a few houses, few chairs, and we're still contending this thing at 1:00 in the morning i think it will be, i think it will be a much more muted reaction. charles: even worst-case scenario would be half of what president obama lost in his first midterm. i'm not sure that the market should recoil that month although you never know with the
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emotional trading of late? >> i will go along with what dr is saying. i think it's a push. i think outlyer scenarios that have to be considered here. charles: what about historically, guys? year after midterms on average the market up 15%. does that come into play? >> comes up until the time i use that metric in there. i'm not a big believer in that kind of stuff. the real outlyer is everybody looking at, if somehow democrats pulled it off, manage to flip the house and senate. that has negative implications for economy. charles: would you pare your portfolio dramatically if that happens? >> i would have to change it. i don't know if i pare it but change it. financials, defense stocks, will take it hard. charles: what would you put it in, if the democrats took the house and senate, where would you relocate your money. >> i have to look at financials right now. maxine waters would become chairman of the house financial services committee. that will be a war. she came out on air, this is revenge politics, she is going after the banks.
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they have been a big beneficiary of regulatory role back. that is not a place i want to hide. charles: what if that was the scenario? >> if that is the scenario, my personal money, people i help with theirs, charles, we are going lighter. i'm going big cash if that happens near term. we'll see how it shakes out. i think there are places that you can, we're currently hiding. staples, i like p and f. i like my old company, dow dupont. charles: you like dow dupont? you like beaten-down names. do you like them as defensive stocks, or not matter what happens tonight? >> as defensive stocks. if the polls get it wrong again, the republicans pull off some sort of a 1980 miracle, olympic analogy, i'm all in, putting chips all in tomorrow. i think we're in for a market melt-up to the end of the year. >> i have to take the other side of that. no matter what happens, best
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outcome happens, market has challenges ahead. big rotation out of growth, free cash flow names. we're not out of the growth. charles: this was a dark cloud, right? unknown of a midterms plays some sort of a role. >> markets don't like uncertainty. this is the most uncertain thing i lived through. charles: i like action of martin marietta, materials. i've been done on them but they have come up huge. i was reading the statement from the company, talking about the fast act, passed overwhelmingly under barack obama, $300 million. i think president trump could get something done on infrastructure, no matter the outcome. i'm talking about in order of a trillion dollars. i don't think how we would pay for it. >> obvious stocks you want to be long. charles: before we go then, i'm getting a wrap signal, you both like a stock should be, outcome
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of tonight should not necessarily matter? you like lockheed martin? >> i like lockheed martin, even though defense may not be the place to be this is free cash flow machine. charles: you do like activision? >> i like activision. up-and-coming. e-sports keep growing. charles: i think a lot of them there will be takeover activity. david, dr. we appreciate it. record amount of money pouring into texas as democrats are determined to turn the state blue. is this the new proxy for all of america, next? ♪ - at athene, we think it's time for the financial world to stop acting the same old way. you need a partner that is willing to break free from conventional thinking. we are a different kind of financial company. we are athene, and we are driven to do more.
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charles: texas once solidly red state turning purple. beto o'rourke in a tight race with ted cruz. he raised $70 million.
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half of that money came from outside the lone star state. how will the money impact the election? attorney general from great state of texas, ken paxton facing a tough re-election fight of his own. ken, thanks for joining the show. >> great to be back. i think it's a great day in texas and i think things will go quite well today. charles: it is amazing. texas is becoming a litmus test for the entire country? is that true. as texas goes, so goes the rest of the nation? >> i do think that is true. you're seeing so much money in the state. if we lose texas it will be difficult to elect a republican for president. they're trying to put in millions of dollars to defeat our texas candidates. charles: texas you have a booming hispanic population. folks say they will out number
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white residents and even 2020 issue, we have the caravan which is approaching how does all of this play in the current day politics? how will it play in the future? >> republicans have done pretty well going back to george w. bush, governor perry, governor abbott has done well with hispanics. they share a lot of our values. they're hard-working. they're very faith oriented. i think a lot of those hispanics are voting republican. charles: what do you make of the politicization of the caravan? i looked at data, ken, americans would be shocked individuals granted asylum in 2016, el salvador, 1400, guatemala, 1300, honduras, 885 people, mexico, 455. if you have thousands of people approaching your border at same time claiming they're all seeking asylum, it blows away these numbers. >> no, there is no doubt. these are much larger numbers than we've seen in the past. it is odd the timing is
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coinciding with our midterm elections. you know many people think there is a tie to some organized effort to affect the midterm elections. i frankly think it has backfired. charles: the money, pouring into your state, what do you make of it? beto o'rourke, last i read was not sharing it with democratic colleagues or friends, maybe setting himself up for a presidential run in 2020? it is mind-boggling. it speaks to something, not interference per se but it is unnerving i think. >> it is interesting, more he talks about liberal policies that fit california, than texas, the more money he raises. when texans find outs what his real views are, it affects the vote and makes it harder to win in texas. looks like he is setting himself
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up for a future race for president. charles: what about your race? it is pretty close. what will make the difference tonight? >> i think republicans are getting out. we checked most of these counties. obviously democrats are voting well in places like travis county. the county i'm from has highest turnout in the state last friday. two weeks of early voting. it also clear that republicans are voting. so as long our people get out, we win, we'll win by decent margins. charles: ken we started the show off talking about the trump effect. i think the record amounts of money being spent, record amounts of output, early voting, people going to the polls, can we all agree maybe, on one thing its working, that americans are working and doing their part? i think that is good subplot to all of this? >> no, there is no doubt the trump administration who brought more prosperity to our state, to the entire country with jobs, tax cuts, less regulation, the very things that we've been begging for in texas, it gives
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our people opportunity to create jobs and create wealth and create opportunity for our children. it has been really excellent. it had great impact on the country. charles: ken, thank you very much. always great seeing you. >> thank you. have a great day. charles: we did invite his opponent, democrat justin nelson to appear today but his come campaign declined. coming up could the midterm election decide the fate of capitalism? arizona electing its first female senator. we have a live report from that state as well. all coming up next. did you understand all the fees you were paying? was your broker a fiduciary? were you satisfied with the attention you were getting? then i explain that being independent gives our firm the freedom to give our clients the attention they deserve. we can put a plan together that makes sense for them. independence lets us do that. charles schwab is proud to support more independent
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oh, and happy birthday... or retirement... in advance. your free decision guide. wat t. rowe price, hundreds of our experts go beyond the numbers to examine investment opportunities firsthand. like a biotech firm that engineers a patient's own cells to fight cancer. this is strategic investing. because your investments deserve the full story. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. neil: -- charles: the economy is roaring, midterms are underway. consumer confidence highest level in 18 years and wages are growing at the fastest pace in a decade and yet if democrats win today the focus next few years will be dismantling capitalism.
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not just the up starts in the party but folks like senator mark warner who really thrown down the gauntlet against american capitalism. this is coming in like a low motive. big businesses and wall street seem oblivious or too arrogant to care. joining me the managing partner of the bon send group, david bahnsen. rick unger has come back. let me start with you, david. mark warner, he denounced american capitalism. i don't believe modern american capitalism is working. sounds like alexandria ocasio-cortez. here is the thing, they will start acting what they believe. >> this is the one great thing people are missing, it isn't just the far left of the party, when we talk about bernie sanders and elizabeth warren almost as characters of that, but polling, the center of the democratic party is going to the left. cory booker talks like a member
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of the sandinista wing of the party. he defended private equity and defending mitt romney. charles: he was getting 100 million from this company, a lot of donations from that one in the wall street area. >> all of sudden he has been pulled all the way over. what they used to call a centrist in the democratic party are being pulled the other way. you're exactly right. what we secret -- see, rhetorically around them. i don't think they can do anything legislative. i use that majority to the sandinista wing. they are going hard-line far left and they will find out what the mean people think about. charles: seems like the election should be a layup. something is resonating, something stirring the american public between the have and have-nots. >> well the economy is very strong. that is certainly the case. obama and trump have both been
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on the campaign trail for the last few weeks arguing that they deserve credit for it. we actually looked at this. what we see is both sides get a little bit of credit. the unemployment rate has been coming down from 10% since 2010. it is now 3.7% but it has been a pretty steady decline. the economy is growing faster now than it was during obama's years but it is also the case that national debt was rising faster than it was during the second term of the obama presidency. so i don't think either side deserves full credit but neither side deserves full blame. charles: i would quibble with the unemployment rate, trillion people drop out. if we had 4 million people drop out of the job market under obama we would have zero unemployment rate. employment for blacks through the roof, better two years under trump than eight years under obama. the quality of jobs improved. 3.1% wage growth. but i don't know. businesses will have to figure
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this out. one day, rick, you get an airline saying we will ban plastic straws. the next day they raise the bag fees. they have to figure this out. >> but i really got to sound caution here i honestly think you guys are overstating it. i fit a centrist democratic mold myself. when you listen to what the senator had to say he is not rejecting capitalism in favor of a socialist agenda. charles: i didn't say it was socialist. there are alternatives. people believe there is something in the middle we could be doing. >> actually i'm glad you said that because i think where you're finding some rejection, i think many including me, who think we have perverted what real capitalism was and should be in this country. i'm a great supporter of that premise because we have tape this turn where we have forgotten some of the real roots of capitalism. i would love to see us get back to that. it would be better for everybody. don't think for a second democrats will become a socialist party? >> how does free trade fit?
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>> free trade fits in. i talked to democrats we're more free traders. charles: i really don't. you're not speaking for young blacks and -- >> but when you ask a young democrat, say what are you, they say democrat socialist, really what does that mean? i don't think they know. charles: that is, you know, i know that they're confused and i think, you know, we're looking around right now in brazil, we saw an election, people would have never predicted two years ago. we're seeing major shifts in political attitudes around the world. no one thought trump would win when he came down an escalator. to suggest that can't happen is part of the problem. >> i also think we make a big mistake it is all in the political realm and not cultural. things happening at cultural will be addressed at cultural level. politics will follow. i don't think young people love socialism but they hate capitalism. i've been defending the right way. they have not been educated on
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it. the school system does a disservice. we have to make a moral case for free markets. we're not making it. charles: i would agree. >> we have a 20 trillion-dollar economy. we have institutions in washington and wall street that are hundreds, 200 years old, division of government, division of power, supreme court, everything. capitalism isn't going away overnight no matter who wins the house. charles: not that it goes away overnight but you can elect a government that can disman tell the foundations. in ft they made a point sears bought back $6 billion of their stock during a time period where they only had $1.8 billion in cash flow. the stock went from $144 a share to $31 a share. by the way it is 39 cents a share. they laid off hundreds of thousands of people while buying back their stock. >> there is nothing in capitalism, charles, that will not get away from incompetence or bad decision making. >> you identified the problem.
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>> that was failure of management. charles: it will be spun negatively by somebody, somebody more articulate than alexandria ocasio-cortez. i'm getting a wrap signal. >> you said it really well. that is the at the heart of the problem. you look at that, something is not working about this system. we want capitalism but we want real capitalism. charles: gentlemen, i wish we go on. great conversation, thanks a lot. david, john, rick. it is one of the hottest senate races in the country. two arizona congresswoman fighting to the finish. republican martha mcsally in a dead-heat with democrat krysten sinema. hillary vaughn is live in chandler, arizona, with the latest. hillary? reporter: just because the polls are open doesn't mean the campaigning stops. both candidates in arizona, republican martha mcsally, kyrsten sinema are hitting the campaign trail. we're in chase's diner in chandler, arizona, where martha mcsally is meeting voters on
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election day. sinema stopped by university of arizona campus to energize college students to vote. sinema said happy election day. i started my morning with a run on u of a campus in my hometown of tucson. next stop, thank arizonaians for voting. i'm glad to be here on this gorgeous day. mcsally is here with voters. i caught up with mcsally at polling location, she thinks this race is down the wire and thinks her opponent to scaring her supporters to the polls. >> seems like fear and anger coming to the left, motivating, organizing lot of people. we need to make sure a lot of people are happy, like the direction we're going in also have their voice heard. if you want that to stop, things will flip in this election. reporter: most people mr. voted here. early voting is huge in arizona. secretary of state said 80% of votes will be cast early. still the candidates are here in
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the neck-and-neck race fighting for every last vote while the polls are still open. charles? charles: hillary vaughn, thank you very much. appreciate it. texas congressional candidate dan crenshaw is challenging nbc to donate one million dollars to veterans after "snl" mocked his war injuries. dan crenshaw joins me next to find out if they responded yet. we'll be right back. the alerian mlp etf can diversify your equity portfolio and add potential income. bring amlp into the game. before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. read the prospectus carefully at
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charles: there is certainly a growing problem in america. it is really increasing lack of faith in america's major institutions. now this lack of faith has also made people more comfortable disrespecting those institutions. of course the most recent example is "saturday night live" mocking one of their skits, mocking the combat wounds of texas congressional candidate dan crenshaw who joins me to discuss the issue. dan, thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me, charles. great to be with you. charles: it is great having you on. it was the skit heard round the world. swift reaction the i will say up front, folks over at "saturday night live" saying that was north part of what they had rehearsed. pete davidson took it on his own accord. it was ad-libbed. you asked hem to make a
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donations to veterans? have they done that? have they replied to you? >> not to my knowledge. they did send me an email, the producers sent me an email apologizing. i think that is fine. but i really would like to see that donation. again i think that is kind of the right way to handle this. i think they can afford it. charles: dan, we're in the midst of a incivility crisis. there is lot of fingerpointing, ironically, the way it is done has stoked anger and divisiveness and even more so. maybe we weren't necessarily surprised at that skit. but were you? you know, when people called you up, when you heard about it, what were your thoughts? >> nothing surprises us anymore in this political environment. but you know, you hit on something, divisiveness, throwing stones at each other. there is a reason i didn't call for pete davidson to be fired. i didn't demand an apology because i think the buck should stop here, right? i think we should stop raising the temperature every time
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someone says something outrageous. the country really rallied around this, said what needed to be said anyway. i think it is the right thing to do but again try hard not to offend people. try hard not to be offended. charles: by the same token, gallup did the polls, confidence in major institutions for a long time. what i find really remarkable, for a lot of them, our confidence in them, we have some on the board now, those are current positives, but our confidence levels peaked in 1975 for public schools, for instance. 62%. only 29% now. for church it is 6%. now it is 38%. only group that went up over that period, the military. 58% to 74%. i thought military was off limits. i thought a war hero was off limits. if you make it to congress, what will you do? what can you do to help the
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nation heal itself so that we can get back on the path where we have differences of thoughts, we do it in a respectful manner? >> be part of the solution, don't be part of the problem. reminding people about the greatness of america and fondness of ideals we share together. america is a compilation of the greatest ideas that humankind ever had. that is what happened in philadelphia in 1776. i say this to our educators. don't only teach the counterarguments. don't only teach the bad things about america. teach the good things. encourage students to understand, love what america stands for. that would be a really great next step to encourage people to love our institutions again, whether it be the church or congress or -- charles: newspapers, media. >> sure. charles: i think we've done an amazing job towards the idea of a more perfect union.
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not that we're perfect but continue to strive for it. we get knocked off kilter from time to time but we bet he get back on it. taking for granted could be a major mistake. your campaign, how is it going? what is your message and what makes you different than our opponent? why are you an asset for your constituents and the country? >> i go back to foundational principles. approach to government. limited government. the trust in the people to self-govern locally. the trust in individual freedom and responsibility, that message resonates especially in texas. we love our freedoms. we want to be left alone by the federal government but we want the federal government to do its job also, whether national security issues, border security, what have you. we still have flooding issues here in houston. we want to get the infrastructure in place to protect houstonians from future flooding like harvey. it is about service to the country and making americans proud of their public servants
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again. i think that is really a message that resonates. charles: dan crenshaw, we appreciate it. >> thank you. charles: we reached out to dan's opponent, todd linton, we have not heard back but we will continue to reach out to him as well. we're three hours away from the first polls closing. the question, what will we expect tonight? what will the headlines say tomorrow morning? we'll be right back. ♪
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charles: severe storms sweeping the south today. it could actually affect voter turnout on this election day. turnout expected to hit record levels for a midterm vote. how will this affect the election and also the trump effect? joining me to discuss it, the former bush 43 adviser michael barnes. michael, one thing i have been saying, no matter how you feel about president trump, we have never seen a midterm turn out like this before. we have never seen this many people civically engaged in their duty to vote, or they are being blessed to have the right to vote, and that's saying something. how do you see this playing out? >> you're right. even my mom is following politics now for the first time ever. i think we've got a battle of the bases with both of these republican and democratic bases being highly motivated, and i think also, if you look at the
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polling, yes, it says one thing, senate, couple seats for the republicans and 25 to 30 new seats for the democrats, but if you look at what polling is saying, recognizing that 2016 was very wrong. 2018, there's still this element of shame, as you were talking about with dan crenshaw, the lack of civility. some people may be unwilling to say they are supporting the president and voting republican. my gut tells me something different from the polling. think about the independents and moderates, for example, they voted in favor of trump, pushed him over the edge in 2016. nothing's new here related to trump, right? we know his personality and his demeanor are the same as they were in the campaign, but the economy is doing quite well. i think it's going to boil down to whether or not you can live with his personality, because if so, then you will favor the economy. there could be a surprise with less democratic gains, fewer gains for democrats than we are hearing in the polls. charles: certainly about a week ago, the dems started to try to curb anticipation of the massive
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blue wave. they gave up on the idea of taking the senate and started to be a little more cautious about this. i think michael hit the nail on the head. but having said that, what has changed? in other words, president trump is essentially who everyone thought he was when he ascended to the white house. the economy has gotten significantly better. you've got people who are working right now and do you put all that, if you just got a job, do you put that all to the side because you think occasionally, the president puts out a mean tweet or says something that makes you cringe or even legitimately might offend you? >> i think people ought to do an important thing when they vote today, and ask are you better off than you were two years ago. by almost any measure, gdp, employment, wages even, things are better now than two years ago. i think about tradeoffs. look, the economy is roaring. it's in great shape. we have a president every now and then will say something where we cringe, oh, my god, where did that come from. it's a tradeoff. we had a president for eight years who chose his words very well, almost never said anything too crazy, and the economy was
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flat to falling for eight years. that's the situation we have now. charles: that was a president spike lee implored over and over again to go off some time. be human, go off. to your point, maybe you can be too calm. maybe no drama obama was a little bit too much. what about things that happened more recently, for instance? some on the right are saying if they lose this thing and it's close, that maybe the birthright citizenship issue was an unforced error. is it too early to make those assumptions? >> it's too early to say. right now, it's basically a tie game in the bottom of the ninth. no one has any idea what's happening. people turn to nate silver for his wisdom. i call it the nate silver uncertainty principle. he says the democrats could pick up between 15 and 50 house seats. that's a really wide, wide berth, i would say. i don't think anything is clear. if it doesn't turn out the way we want, i said all along we really should focus on the question are you better off than you were two years ago. if i were republican running for
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office right now, i would ask that question over and over and over nonstop. charles: also make sure you answer it just in case. >> i would provide the answer, too. charles: michael, on the notion that the democrats win the house, the senate remains in gop hands, that is a rebuke of trumpism? how does, you know, afterwards when it's all said and done, what's the narrative going to be? >> i think the narrative for the president is going to be likely that he did better than the average president in a midterm at this point in his presidency, because the average is 33 flipped seats and i think everyone's expecting 25 to 30, if you look at conventional polling for democrats. so he will say that's a victory. he will say he's got greater majority in the u.s. senate to confirm his judicial nominees and he will continue to have that influence over the third branch of government, then i think investigations and impeachment on the part of the democrats in the house will
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create a severe fatigue that bolsters the chances of the president to get re-elected. charles: you know what, they haven't learned anything from the kavanaugh effect, and they come through and that's all they waste their time on, you are absolutely right. what about the in troerepublica? some bowed out of d.c. because they didn't want to get on the trump train. no matter what happens after tonight, does this officially seal the gop as trump's party? >> i think it is. look, his popularity is up to about 50%. he's got 40% support among black americans, that's maybe a first. again, this economy is booming away. i think we would certainly like him to watch his words from time to time but apart from that, i think he's turned out to be tremendous republican and conservative leader. charles: michael, weigh in on that as well. >> i think the republican party is the party of trump, and you are going to see perhaps even as early as tonight that the libertarian party and maybe even
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some of the write-ins and independents will have greater than usual former republicans who are supporting them. charles: yeah. guys, thank you very much. make sure you stay with fox business on election night. complete coverage, all the results starting at 7:00 p.m. eastern with neil cavuto and lou dobbs. my friend liz takes it away now. liz: listen, it is a crazy day. i get it. i get it. breaking news. welcome everybody to the cosmic crash of election day and the final hour of trade. they are heading head-first into each other. voters across america at this hour, look at that, battling everything from sheets of rain to tornado warnings. this in an effort to turn out in torrents for what has to be one of the most exciting and expensive midterm elections on record. how they and you cast your votes could have a major impact on the stock market, the economy, president trump's trade war, the nation's deteriorating


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