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tv   The Claman Countdown  FOX Business  December 12, 2019 3:00pm-4:01pm EST

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some of the harder negotiating points, your thoughts real quick? >> i think it would boil down to enforcement. it's one thing to put it on paper, another thing to see what happens if they don't. we know one thing. tariffs matter to them. if tariffs is the thing that happens if they don't play by the rules, that's a good thing. jackie: thank you, mitch. liz claman, over to you. liz: we've got it right here now. breaking news. do we have a deal? multiple reports as we head into the final hour of trade that after a 21-month showdown between the u.s. and china, a phase one, meaning partial trade deal, is reportedly ready for the old john hancock signature. in just the last half hour, president trump reportedly huddled behind closed doors at the white house right there on your screen with his top trade advisers. the markets appear to be waiting for confirmation. stocks have been rallying all morning on optimism that maybe, just maybe a deal is at hand. the president has tweeted very boldly that quote, they were very close to a quote, big deal, so the dow had shot up this
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morning by 313 points. we are up 208 points. the s&p this morning had shot up, let's see, 34 points and at the moment, we are up 23. you get what i'm saying here? we are not near session highs at the moment. again, no confirmation just yet from officials at the white house, but we should tell you that these reports really started coming after u.s. trade representative robert lighthizer much earlier this morning had told senators that the deal with china was quote, imminent. now, we heard just a few hours ago that u.s. negotiators reportedly offered to reduce tariffs on about $375 billion of chinese goods and also separately suspend the tariffs that are set to go into effect this sunday. those tariffs would have impacted $160 billion worth of chinese goods and materials coming into the country. but we haven't heard yet what the chinese have agreed to. the market's jumping for joy right from the start and here's
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that tweet i was just referencing. quote, getting close to a very big deal with china. they want it and so do we. let us go straight to the white house. blake burman, what do we know? reporter: i'm glad you say we haven't heard from china yet because that of course is half of the component here. keep in mind that the white house has been pushing for some $40 billion to $50 billion in ag purchases from china but we heard from the agriculture secretary, sonny perdue, telling kristina partsinevelos earlier this morning that would be a challenge. our sources on the chinese side of things still are saying they don't necessarily want to put that in writing. so it remains to be seen what exactly are the details here, if in fact there is a deal that if in fact president trump would sign off on. remember, it was in the middle of october that we all got summoned into the oval office and president trump announced there was a deal in principle but sitting right across from the chinese vice premier liu he. since then, for the past two months, both sides have been
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negotiating back and forth with each other, quote unquote, papering the deal. well, that papering is all of the details in between. what i can tell you, in speaking with the white house here, just within the last 10 or 15 minutes, they are not necessarily commenting on this report that there is a deal, because that report is that there was a deal in principle, well, that was the case, the u.s. side had announced two months ago. what we do know is that there is this meeting ongoing, i believe it is under way, i left the west wing about ten minutes or so ago, and there was all sorts of activity up there. so the president meeting with his trade team right now. the report that there is a deal but still no sign-off yet or at least no announcement from the white house, and keep in mind, if there is a deal that the president would sign off on, then there has to be some sort of formal notification to peel
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back the tariffs that are set to go in place on sunday. that decision most likely -- or that process would have to be initiated by tomorrow. bottom line here, the meeting is ongoing and we will be hearing from the president or potentially hearing from the president here soon and i stress potentially, but this meeting is under way and we should know more within the next hour, two hours or so potentially. liz: as we are talking, i don't know if we can recue the tape we were just showing, and we have the chyron at the top saying moments ago and that was a big contingent of trade negotiators, there it is. i have to ask you, i'm dying to know because this is what we are hearing all day, the u.s. according to the "wall street journal" was offering to cut tariffs on china and either delay or completely cancel the sunday tariffs. i'm just wondering what do the
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chinese do to get closer to the finish line for us? reporter: we have been reporting here for awhile now that what the chinese wanted was by the time there would potentially be a full deal, all of the tariffs that had been instituted, that had been put on during this trade war to be rolled back in phases. however, the u.s. side wasn't necessarily willing to go that far and wanted to keep some tariffs on the books in case china wasn't necessarily playing by the rules and there would be some sort of mechanism to be able to be sure that all of this was being enforced. there was a pretty big gap there and you're right, the question is what might have gotten rolled back, how big, when, what are the phases here, et cetera. you saw that massive trade c contingent walk in. i believe this meeting might even be held in a cabinet room because when i was up there in the west wing just a little while ago, that's where a lot of activity was taking place. liz: i'm looking at stocks at
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the moment. let's just let our viewers know, the dow up 202. i do stress we are kind of not near the 313 high there -- reporter: it's come back because, and i think in part when you get that -- when you have that headline of deal in principle, that's what we have been talking about here for two months. it's the details at this point and we await to see what is presented to the president and whether or not he is satisfied with it and whether or not he signs off on it. liz: yeah. okay. blake, thank you. please interrupt us if you get any more on this, any confirmation. i do just want to tell you, where are we seeing reaction. we showed you commodities. i just want to check. yeah, corn up 2.5%. oats up nearly 3%. and we have wheat up 1.6%. the president had been very clear, he wanted the chinese to buy more u.s. agricultural products. the question is, the chinese could agree to buy a lot more. does it reach what they were
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buying before the tariff war? because they pretty much stopped. is it going to be incremental, is it going to be a lot but not bringing us up to the original top level. here's the question. are we tariff-free or tariff-fied. the reports of a potential deal are sending semiconductor stocks higher. the philadelphia semiconductor index, it has this basket of everybody from intel to nvidia to advanced microdevices, it is spiking 2.33%. look at this. this is a ten-year chart. this would be its second consecutive record close. semiconductors hare very dependent on revenue from china. they do a lot of business here and a potential delay or basically cancellation of sunday's upcoming tariffs would spare smartphones, laptops and other chip-run consumer electronics. u.s. companies like nvidia, like intel, like applied materials, a chip equipment maker, are
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waiting on tinterhooks about this. perhaps the market pop is fueling warren buffett's berkshire hathaway. look at class a and class b shares. they are hitting brand new record highs above $335,000 for the first time ever. berkshire at $338,310. b shares at $225.52. why? well, why would they be responding? there are more than 70 companies under the berkshire umbrella and subsectors within that. they have a lot of exposure to china. they do deals in metal, in chemicals. remember, this time as well, we are looking at the stocks of these big conglomerates, a and b shares, and watching that closely. a single gain here of 1.33% means $4,628 for berkshire a shares. this time yesterday, we had told you how middle eastern fund managers were predicting that
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saudi aramco would hit $2 trillion in market cap as early as today. that is exactly what the state-backed oil company in the second day of trading hit. the record valuation allows the kingdom to thumb its nose at doubters in the financial community who have said even our nyu professor who was here but remember, two days of trading, very thin trading because it's only on the saudi riyadh stock exchange, so we are not really sure how that will play out but we have real action here. let's bring in our traders on the floor of the multiple exchanges. even before the trade announcement, jpmorgan had released its top trading themes for 2020. they didn't like gold. they had some real optimism and that means gold, which is often a safe haven, was not something they said to go into. gold is barely lower at the moment by $1.60. but the financial giant also advised clients to short gold and instead, go overweight equities. that's a good play today, guys, because we are up 214 points on the dow. let's get right to our traders right now.
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we can see how we are doing for the year. sarge, what do you make of this potential? do you believe there is a trade deal beyond in principle? >> well, this is what's happening here. the big deal here is the move in the long end of the treasury curve. we got movement in the 30s, movement in the 10s. this creates net interest margin for the banks because the short end of the curve is nailed to the floor by the fed right now and it's going to be at least through march, maybe through all 2020. so we have an environment that's very conducive to growth now. if there is a trade deal, or at least a trade piece. going forward, all these analysts are going to have to revise all the earnings for the first quarter. the fourth quarter is almost on the books already. we can't do anything about that. that's going to be a negative. the first quarter, through 2020, the whole ball game changes. every analyst has to re-look at maybe four, five, maybe six sectors. you have a shot at 3500 on the s&p 500 next year. if these corporations are going
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to operate on -- liz: say that again. 3500 for the s&p next year? >> you got to understand margins are going to improve if tariffs are cut in half and new tariffs aren't introduced. liz: i completely agree. right now we are 3165. >> yeah, we will have the rally will go on. that's what i'm telling you. liz: let me bring in scott. hold on. hold on. scott, give me what you are seeing on the floor of the cme in chicago. >> we are seeing a little bit of not euphoria, that's probably too big a word, but the traders are happy about what might be happening. i would say this when it comes to china. i don't know about anybody telling me how many phases of the deal there's going to be. am i sitting here next year and we will be getting happy about phase eight? come on, let's have common sense here. let's slow our roll for a minute. i agree that the economy is chugging along, things are going to be okay. i'm not sure about 3500 on the s&p. however, with low interest rates even though they spiked a little today, and unemployment where it's at and the last jobs numbers we got last friday, that's going to portend, that's
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going to continue to have the economy grow at a nice steady manner. i'm not going to go crazy because i still don't know how many phases to this deal there are going to be but right now, things look good and nice and steady going forward. liz: okay. which would account for the fact that while we are not at session highs for any of the major indices, they do actually look good, luke. oil is also responding positively because the fear had been that there were clouds over the oil market due to perhaps questionable demand, if we still had real problems with our relationship regarding china. we are off the highs of the session, we are in the aftermarket right now. we are closing in on $59.50 a barrel at the moment. luke? >> yeah, well, liz, the saudi aramco deal is going a lot better than anyone expected including myself. so that's helping oil. it's said the saudis will be able to control output from opec. that's the first thing. secondly, i think it's fitting that i'm here today because for 21 months, i have been saying there's not going to be a deal and it looks like there might be one today. but i'm going to say that in august, we put out an investor
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letter and the first view is going to be agriculture, there's going to be seven or eight deals or phases like scott says, so don't get too excited about it. also remember, there's brexit coming up or maybe soft brexit, maybe not. there's still some risk to the market. i agree with what you said in the jpmorgan note. stocks probably going to drift a little higher but you have to owe some volatility. volatility is really muted. hedges are cheap. liz: 14.19 for the vix, down about 5.33. sarge, go ahead. >> got to understand capx is going to come back in. capital expenditures from corporations across the realm. 12% of the u.s. economy that's already in recession is going to come out of recession. >> you're right. margin has to increase. margin has to increase. >> they have to know what the deal is first. liz: they do. that's what scott just said. is it phase 38.5? which is it?
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>> we have to have the deal first. i get that. algorithms go one way. liz: we have a report of a deal in principle, folks. great to have all of you. great stuff. thanks our traders. they bring us that real on the floor granularity to the big story. is it any surprise that cisco is leading the way on the blue chips? up 3% for the moment for the network equipment company. this is arguably a competitor to huawei. there may be another reason. cisco announced plans for a brand new chip architecture to help it break further into the networking market. does that mean 5g? maybe. across the pond, a whole different kind of networking going on. boris johnson looking to bulldoze his way to a total brexit from the european union. ashley webster, live on the ground in london, less than two hours until the polls close. a new photograph has surfaced that may be shifting the
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conversation. we are going to show you what entails that photograph. "the claman countdown" coming right back.
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liz: to the united kingdom where it is just after 8:00 p.m. election polls close in less than two hours in the second national election since 2016's brexit referendum. in the last 48 hours, the focus has shifted a degree or two away from brexit and to the national health care system there, which has gotten very little attention in this all brexit, all the time discussion. so here's what happened. it revolves around a photo that has surfaced and now gone viral. this as you see on the screen is a photograph which is right here on your screen being held by labour leader and boris johnson
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rival jeremy corbyn of a 4-year-old boy who was rushed to the hospital, british boy, he was suspected of having pneumonia and no one could take him. they did not have enough beds. there is just overcrowding and mayhem so they had him sleeping on a pile of coats on a hospital floor in the waiting room. this of course has catapulted the national health service, as it's known, into the election spotlight. basically voters saying wait a minute, wait a minute, it's not just brexit and whether we leave the european union and trade and commerce that we need to worry about, we need to worry about our health and our health care. this while british prime minister boris johnson basically when confronted with it, refused to look at the picture that a reporter was trying to show him. he's trying to emphasize brexit and breaking the gridlock. he was at a machinery equipment company and took one of the pieces of equipment and bulldozed right through a faux
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wall that said gridlock. so what's going to prevail? brexit only or other issues? let's bring in ashley webster on the ground in london. you know, that photograph is getting a lot of play, is it not? ashley: well, it did right up to the last day of campaigning, liz. it was not a good moment for boris johnson. he didn't handle it particularly well. but jeremy corbyn had his own problems. there was audio recorded at one of his senior cabinet members basically saying that he was not respected as a leader and the results of this election could be dire. so both leaders of their parties having some bad moments just before today's vote. now, you can see both boris johnson and jeremy corbyn voting earlier this morning. the turnout this morning was pretty good. long lines being reported. the last election, general election that theresa may called in 2017, the turnout was around 69%. generally considered the higher the turnout, maybe the better
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for labour. we will have to see. but let's do the math. parliamentary math. there are 650 seats in parliament. every one of those are up for grabs today. what the party needs is 326 of those seats to have a majority. if you believe the polls, if you believe the bookies, boris johnson will have that 326 and perhaps more, and that means that he would be able to put through his brexit plan and we can all move on. but perhaps irish leader said it best when he said this. what has been very hard to work with was a hung parliament that wasn't able to come to a majority on anything. i just hope we're not in that position tomorrow. the worst possible result would be a hung parliament, meaning no one has a majority because basically, we would be back to square one. let me just show you the -- basically the timetable on eastern time. 5:00 p.m., the polls close.
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about an hour later, the early results will start coming in. at 10:00 p.m., winner potentially determined and by 6:00 a.m. tomorrow morning, we may indeed know who is the victor and who is conceding. lots to go. very quickly, i know you are running out of time, "daily mirror" today said for them, vote labour and started to say the nhs which was the little boy's story, the homeless, child poverty, however, the "sun" says if boris wins, expect a bright future, if red jed, as they call jeremy corbyn wins, the lights go out for good. the british media put it right there on the front page. back to you. liz: yeah. it's really been such a long battle. i'm not sure this election solves very much. we shall see. ashley, thank you. ashley webster. we've got some big bounty in the streaming wars. with the closing bell ringing in 38 minutes, the dow is still right where it's pretty much
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been since the news broke that there may be a deal in principle between the u.s. and the chinese. that's a gain of 194 points. disney, a dow component, disney plus may have its mandalorian bounty hunters searching to bring netflix subscribers into the fold. maybe they can lure them with baby yoda. netflix getting beaten down this week after needham and company analyst laura martin said it could lose four million u.s. subscribers to new streaming competitors like disney and apple. she joins us next to talk about the fallout from the note that she wrote. it has sent netflix investors ducking for cover. she's here with market watch technology editor jeremy owens who is taking the other side. when "the claman countdown" comes back.
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who has the power to hurt it more, mandalorian or morning show? in the past 24 hours, we've had two dueling analyst notes. piper jaffrey said netflix fourth quarter subscriber numbers could increase 6% year over year. you heard me correctly, increase. more than wall street's estimates. this in total contrast to the note from needham and company analyst laura martin, who said the streaming company will lose four million u.s. subscriber s n 2020. laura martin is here to stake her case along with jeremy owens, who thinks netflix will stand strong and grow even taller. all right. laura, to you first. who has the power now to hurt netflix more, mandalorian or morning show? >> i think they both compete directly with netflix, so it doesn't matter which one hurts them. if netflix does not have a $5 to $7 price point which is where apple and disney have now moved the market to, it will lose subs
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because economic theory tells you something is priced at half the price, consumers will move to the cheaper option. netflix only pricing here is the $10 to $16 price point today. liz: how much does the churn issue play in? because you've got to figure that once something catches a person's eye, whether it is the mandalorian, they might drop their netflix subscription here and there, depending on the timing, or if they really like the morning show and want to see the second season. >> yeah, we actually saw this with "game of thrones." we have data around this. when we did our survey after the "game of thrones" final episode last april, 30% of netflix subs said they turned off netflix which has no penalty to turn it off at any time, and they watch "game of thrones" the six or seven final episodes, then they turned back on netflix. so our four million sub losses in 2020 is exactly that. it is 30% of their subs turning off netflix for only three
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months each, and that equates to four million fewer u.s. subscribers over the course of 2020. liz: jeremy, i will tell you something. if it all comes down to pricing right now, netflix is pricier. granted, you could argue they get more but why are you so pro the growth of this company, especially considering, i was just looking beforehand, we've got apple up 71% year to date. disney up 34%. netflix, up 11% year to date. it's kind of lagging. >> yeah, it is. as a stock. but as a service, you're talking about a company that offers a lot more content for that money. i mean, disney and apple are about half the price, if you're going for the $12 tier, but they have so much less content. i think we are entering no inin time when we are going to churn a lot. by churn we mean turn off the service. i don't think consumers will turn off netflix. i think they will dip between all these new services, keep netflix for the quantity of content that netflix offers,
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then balance between apple and disney and some of these other new ones to see if there are any that drag you in and make you want to stick around. i think that's what we are going to see next year. there are going to be some consumers getting out of netflix but some will come back. i don't see a huge decline in netflix. i see it kind of staying stable. liz: let me flip it over to 2020, as in next year. if not netflix, who is your winner? >> so my winner is roku. i just want to address one of the comments he just made. peacock will launch in april with 15,000 hours of content. that's the new comcast service. it will also be at a $5 to $7 price point. so you will have plenty of services that have more content than netflix and more well-known content because remember, most of netflix content gets canceled before season four. so it's very hard to build a brand. the content they're losing is "the office" and "friends" and those are going to competitors. those have 12 years brand building in them. so the most popular, the one and
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two most popular show on netflix in '19 will be with competitors in 2020. liz: roku is up 356% this year. i don't know. maybe it's overbought. >> so the thing is about roku, as a winning aggregator, it doesn't own content at all. it is an arms dealer. it doesn't care who wins. it just doesn't care. it gets 20% or 30% of revenue for every app that's on its platform and it controls 40% of the connected homes in america. so basically you can't watch an app anymore and not be on roku or you will walk away from half the marketplace. liz: will we see a price war coming up? ten seconds. >> i don't think so. >> yep, we are in a price war. >> well, netflix isn't going to -- [ speaking simultaneously ] liz: good to see you both. we do appreciate it. lot of breaking news. folks. now the dow is up 231 points. that means we have seen a gain of about 38 points from the
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earlier move that we had seen, not at the highs of the session which would be a gain of 313. we are waiting on confirmation of a phase one trade deal. we do not have it yet. we have reporters on the ground surrying all over the white house. we are waiting to see. meantime, one company whose stock has spiked, a massive 165% year to date by helping merchants set up their online shopping platforms, has now turned to self-charging robots who have a name. chuck. and chuck is filling the billions of orders that its clients need. what six rivers have to do with holiday shopping. shopify bigwig is here in a fox business exclusive when "the claman countdown" comes right back. at fidelity, online u.s. stocks and etfs are commission-free. and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate.
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liz: i have a question for you. have you gotten your holiday shopping done yet? i didn't even have to wait for hanukkah to get this. our team did the shopping already for me. they got me the official "claman countdown" mugs this holiday season. yay! now that it's on the mug, i'm not moving. this is it. we are here. all right. while e-commerce sites are in the thick of their busiest shopping season yet, according to a new sales force report,
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more than 95% of consumers say they plan to do over half of their holiday shopping online this year, but if your business isn't operating online, you are missing out on major profits. maybe you think it's too exhausting to get it going. no, it's not. one million companies have turned to shopify. our next guest is the c.o.o. of the publicly traded shopify. look at this stock. up an unbelievable 165% year to date. this is an e-commerce platform that allows businesses to sell products to anyone, anywhere online. shopify currently powers, as i said, a million merchants in 175 countries. lt let's bring in harvey finkelstein joining us in a fox business exclusive. you have made an acquisition. we have to hear about this. it's actually helping in a big way and it involves robots named chuck. >> it definitely does. yeah. i think shopify is of course best known for being a provider
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of e-commerce and helping small business independent brands build beautiful online stores but over the past couple years, what you have seen from us, we began to look at all the other barriers to success that a small business may have, whether it's payments or capital or fraud protection, and more recently we realized that fulfillment is a really important one. consumer expectation has been completely been reset by the big marketplaces. what we realized was if we were to combine all our online stores, all the merchants on shopify in the u.s., we are actually the third largest online retailer in america. so what we can do with that is take that economy of scale and go and create a network of fu fulfillment centers and allow small businesses to leverage the fulfillment centers and add in robots from this great company called six river systems so anyone on shopify can offer the same type of delivery the big guys can afford a. liz: this is really a right hand robot. i say like a right hand man. right hand robot.
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basical basically, as i understand it, it helps keep billions of packages flowing which will certainly help if we don't get a trade deal. tariffs have really hurt retailers. they have been chewing their nails. the big developing news in this hour, i don't know if you heard, is that there may be a phase one deal in principle between the u.s. and china but retailers are already stuck trying to make money off every single tiny penny margin, who knows what. these things work, what, 24/7, they automatically i think charge? tell us about these. >> this is -- these robots, what they do is they effectively create more efficiency and better productivity any warehouse they're in. by allowing these chucks to be placed in your warehouse, they work hand in hand with your existing staff members in the warehouse to create far more efficiency. now, what's even more important as you zoom up for a second, now if you are a small business just getting started and trying to get up and running for black friday or cyber-monday, by being part of the shopify fulfillment
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network and using one of our fulfillment warehouses that are powered by these robots, you can now ship out really affordable products on a two-day cycle to 99% of america. again, what this does, it just further bends the learning curve and further levels the playing field so these small businesses can compete with the big guys. that's really what we are doing. shopify is really powering the rebels. we think more independent brands, independent businesses, are really really important and bfc and black friday, cyber-monday, we saw that happen. consumers, particularly in north america and the u.s. but frankly all over the world, they voted with their wallets to buy directly from these brands, not go through intermediaries. we saw the 2.9 billion dollars sold on shopify amongst our merchants in the four-day global holiday shopping period. and it hasn't stopped. liz: let me just ask you, because we have got some breaking news that absolutely weaves into your million clients. retailers who are selling
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online. there may, according to blake burman, our reporter in washington, d.c., that we have a u.s./china trade deal that is imminent. i'm watching the dow for our viewers right now. we are up 223 points. let's see if we can hit the high of the session, 313. what would tariffs being dropped, what we are hearing, basically, is that we will cancel the sunday tariffs that were to kick in on $160 billion in goods and perhaps we might see a 50% cut in tariffs on $300 billion plus in goods, what would that mean to some of your clients if we have sort of a meeting of the minds between china and the u.s.? >> look, anything we can do that makes things easier, less expensive for small business, we think is a really great thing. i think what entrepreneurs require more than anything else is clarity. if we can be clear with them exactly how these tariffs are going to work, it means they can better anticipate the challenge of their business and make far better decisions. again, we think that small businesses are the backbone of this economy. anything we can do to make life easier for them so small
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business becomes the next kylie cosmetic. that is wonderful for our economy. liz: great to see you. harley finkelstein saying his one million plus clients, a lot of them i'm quite sure import at least parts or materials from china and we may have a deal. blake burman is reporting that a deal is imminent. dow is up 228. perhaps more importantly, the volatility index has dropped another 2 percentage points. fear coming out of the markets. we are down 7.75% on the volatility index and we are looking at the ten-year yield holding steady at 1.899%. don't go away. we go back to washington live. ♪
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liz: breaking news. we thought we would look at chinese stocks. they are definitely firming right now on news that a u.s./china trade deal is
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imminent. that is what our blake burman is reporting from the white house. that's what we are hearing. there is an ongoing meeting right now in the oval office about the deal. baidu up 3.5%., chinese names, up nearly 2%. look at tencent jumping 4.25%. gerri willis on the floor of the new york stock exchange, what's going on? what are you hearing about trade sensitive stocks? gerri: this is so exciting. so as you know, stocks index is up 2.5%. the chip companies do a lot of business in china, they are all up. the top performing dow stocks, caterpillar, utx, intel, all big trade stocks across the board. the sectors that are winning, financials, energy and materials. you got to think this is great for the overall world economy, global economy does better with a deal and those are the sectors that are doing better. now, i have been talking to traders down here all day long, liz, about what they're seeing with this trade deal. do they believe it this time. that's a big thing. we have heard lots of times the
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president saying we're close, we're close, but today, some of these traders are saying this time around, we see it happening. there are a few holdouts but a lot of people are on board and you can see that in the major averages. the dow up 235 points. back to you. liz: here's the question. everybody said from the start the chinese are the type who need to save face. so the deal has to make it look like they got something. we know president trump is extremely sensitive to appearing in any way, shape or form as having given in, although he calls himself the deal maker of the century. what do the traders believe really happened here, because all we are hearing from the u.s. side, they got, you know, more purchases maybe from agriculture. quickly. gerri: so skinny deal. i think they think we're not going to get a ton of stuff, but some stuff. they're not looking for anything -- something small. they would be happy with that. liz: we will watch for it. stay on the floor.
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we will jump back to you in just a moment. charlie breaks it next. the dow is up 236. still in a way, waiting for confirmation from the white house. you are the one... nothing shines brighter than you. you are my rock... nothing is stronger than you. you are one-of-a-kind. i love every facet of you. you are my diamond.
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liz: all right. maybe we can best tell what the market is pricing in by seeing the gains since 51 minutes ago, when we started the show. the dow was up about, what did you say, 115? we are up 251 right now on news that a china trade deal with the united states on phase one is imminent. we are urging caution here. until we actually get the definitive word, we are still not having it at the moment but the nasdaq has nearly doubled its gains here. we are up about 70 points on the tech-heavy index. in the meantime, charlie's just
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run down with some breaking news. the man in magenta making his last stand. john legere telling a new york court why the multiple states that are looking to block t-mobile and sprint's $26 billion mega-merger are making the wrong call. charlie, what kind of promises do you think he's making? >> listen, i think what they are hoping from legere is he's sort of the icing on the cake to what the judge did earlier today. what we understand is t-mobile and sprint are growing cautiously optimistic about their chances. by the way, wall street is starting to downgrade their chances, if you look at some of the analyst comments, you know, they have gone from 85% that they are going to win this case and keep the merger and prevent the state ags from blocking the merger, to 55%. that's a big drop among wall street analysts. but earlier today, the judge came out and started questioning one of the key witnesses for the state ags. his economic analysis on how much competition and how much prices will increase, and you know, he was very very skeptical
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of that economic analysis. he said like how do you know that, how do you know that other competitors won't chime in and engage in price competition, verizon, for example, if you have a bigger, stronger t-mobile/sprint which is one of the key arguments of the company. so i can tell you this. t-mobile and sprint are growing cautiously optimistic about their chances. they will tell you you can never read -- it's a fool's game really to read a judge's mind. you can only assert from some of the questions he asks, and you know, when the at & t/time warner deal obviously was in favor of the companies against the trump administration fwlok the mer to block the merger, you kind of knew it was coming because the judge was skeptical of the economic arguments of the justice department and you are kind of getting some of that now. we should point out, judge marrero is a democrat. he was appointed by bill clinton. he ruled against trump. trump -- it's interesting, trump wanted to keep his taxes, i
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guess keep it confidential. he's the guy that said you have to give them up, you know, to i think it was to the new york state attorney general's office. so let's be real clear here. this is not a friend to the trump administration. that said, his questioning on this witness plus john legere coming out saying why this will lead to more competition, not less, because sprint will be a stronger carrier and at & t will have to engage in price competition. they think that's the one-two punch that can basically get this over the finish line. again, be very careful, you know, reading jurors' minds. judges are interesting because you know, this is a judge trial, not a jury trial. he asks questions. some of those questions can be -- you can kind of get an idea of what he's thinking. he's the guy that matters. by the way, it's not the new york attorney general that's looking at this. i believe trump's taxes. i believe it's cyrus vance jr. liz: i've got to ask you about being cautious about something else. that is whether we have a trade
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deal with china for phase one. let me just say at the very moment, that the word is it could possibly come as early as this afternoon but at the moment, what we have is simply that according to -- yes, according to fox business, we are getting this from sources, there is a deal and it is imminently going to be announced. >> listen, i think this. if i'm trading this, i think anything that ends the trade war is positive, even if it's a b.s. deal. i think what we are going to get out of here is nothing so great. i would be cautious on the sourcing, because watch who frames the deal. if it's the white house framing the deal, you got to go through with a fine tooth comb. liz: the news today, at least well before this, in the morning, was that the u.s. -- this is how it was put -- the u.s. is offering china two things. i will get to those in a minute. but we didn't hear china is offering this. beyond buying more agriculture.
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>> i will just say this. just forget about like -- forget about the noise exactly on the deal. anything that is positive that ends trade tensions is a buying opportunity for the market. at least in the near term. liz: look at deere and company up 2%. look at all of these names. a lot of these have exposure to apple because -- >> liz, let's be real clear. why has the market essentially, you know, just not been up that much since the trade war began? it's not because china is the biggest -- liz: what are you talking about? we are at record highs. >> but if you look at it from the last 18 months it's basically flat. we were at record highs almost 18 months ago. right? it's not up that much. one of the reasons is because of this trade uncertainty. if you remove the uncertainty even with a b.s. deal, that is good, the markets will take that as a net positive and then businesses can kind of figure out what to do. one of the drags on the economy, it's been a pretty strong economy, has been uncertainty on
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this trade deal. so when you take away that uncertainty, but again, you have to look, the devil's in the details. i'm like very sort of skeptical of anything coming out of the trump -- liz: gold has reversed. it is now negative. gold had been up slightly, i don't know, by just a buck or so. at the moment we do have that safe haven. >> the other thing is phase one. this is where if you really want to get technical here, there's a short-term trading mentality, i'm telling you that anything that's -- that gets rid of the uncertainty is very good for the markets but then if you really want to see what's in the deal, remember, this is phase one. if the markets thought this was that great for america, i think it would be up more than 250 points, right? just remember, i think it's net-net really good, because it gets rid of some uncertainty. liz: can we show -- >> you would probably say the same. liz: can we show the chinese stocks i was talking about before? baidu, tencent. bring in anything. alibaba. they are all in the green at the moment. again, we are going to wait
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until actual confirmation here but both fox business and reuters reporting a deal is imminent. let me bring in dan russo with chaiken analytics, $25 billion in assets under management. dan, what could this do to your picks like lam research and some of the other names that do definitely have exposure to china? >> yeah, these are names that have been bullish in our model and are likely to continue to do well. they have been outperforming the market for some time. bullish rating is in place. they have been under accumulation. if you look at the chaiken money flow indicator. odds are they are likely to continue to do well. technology is an area of the market obviously leveraged a trade, bullish in our etf model, likely to continue to outperform. >> does the market care about a b.s. deal? if it's just marginal, would the market care? liz: they just want the tension out? >> i think they want the tension out. that's exactly right. i think that as long as directionally, the commentary is bullish, the market can continue to go higher.
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liz: let's look at what the s&p is doing right now. we are climbing back up to session highs although look far right. a little tick off the earlier, i guess when i say earlier i mean ten minutes ago, that earlier high. again, the market's waiting on news of whether there is actually going to be pen put to paper on this trade deal. as i look at the volatility index, it continues to go down. >> they actually signed phase one? liz: oh, yeah, they would sign it, sure. they have to agree to it. >> phase one. how many phases are there? >> i think that's the question. one of the questions. to your point, we do not have -- we have an agreement in principle, right, is what's being reported. we don't have a signed agreement just yet. liz: and sunday is supposed to be the tariffs kicked in on $160 billion. what happens if we don't get confirmation? >> i think if we don't get confirmation that is a near term risk to the market. we could see a pullback. obviously the market is excited here around the headlines. so that would be a risk for profit taking. liz: dan russo of chaiken
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analytics. charlie gasparino, thank you. our traders all around the nation on trading floors. folks, we have -- is that a record close for the dow? no. it is not. we are just short of a record close for the dow. but a gain of 223 across the board. trade deal imminent. let melissa: forget trade fears, we might have a trade deal. stocks surging as the trade agreement when the world's two largest economies is "imminent" pending approval from the president, the dow fighting to end in record territory, we had to close up 252 points we did not get it. i'm melissa francis good to see you. >> thank you very much even deirdre bolton in for connell mc shane. take a look at the markets s&p 500, 27th high of the year, 107th under president trump, and it is the 22nd record close of the year for the nasdac, so we have fox bes


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