tv WSJ at Large With Gerry Baker FOX Business March 1, 2020 8:30pm-9:00pm EST
but start smart every weekday write on foxbusiness join me for mornings with maria 69 eastern monday through friday. right here on foxbusiness. have a grea great, great rest of your weekend thank you much for being with me. see you next time. ♪ ♪. gerry: hello and welcome to the wall street journal at large. used to be said when wall street sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. but it's a sign of our changing times that it was wall street seemed to succumb to the rising menace of a virus that began a couple of months ago in the chinese heartland. financial markets were pummeled with investors suggesting the indications of the rapidly spreading corona virus or wiping out all the gains of so far. worry of this spread and the
durability of this group markets. the yield on the ten year hit record lows. with investors seeking the safety of u.s. government debt. now the immediate cause of the fear was sudden evidence to the disease taking hold now well outside of china. the number of cases in italy, iran, south korea vote significantly. trent president trump sought to calm fears but the u.s. would also see an epidemic and insisted the country was well prepared to cope. anointing vice president pence to take charge of the response. but the head of dissenter for disease control said americans will not be immune to the spreading virus. meanwhile, in politics in the democratic primary, senator bernie sanders has his lead ahead of the fields with the strong wind and nevada caucuses ahead of south carolina primary and super tuesday next week. now the rapid pace of all
these events only underscores the unusual volatile of the challenges facing the country today. the economy continues to perform well, but new technologies are clearly upending the way we work and live. the rapid spread of the coronavirus remind us of the risk and opportunities of america that is tightly connected to the rest of the world. all this at a time of the country seems more divided than ever over its priorities in its direction. and the political stage is increasingly dominated by outsiders first president trump four years ago and now it seems a democratic socialist who may be rising to lead the opposition. so what's going on? what are these new risks and challenges tells about the evolving state of america? by far the world's most successful democracy. earlier, to get a better sense of where this may be headed i talked to one of the country's most imaginative forecasters. george freedman was founder and chairman of futures and online publication that interprets and analyzes major global trends. he is also the author of a new
book, the storm before the calm, america's discord becoming crisis of the 2020s, and the triumph beyond. the new book, it's a fascinating account of what you see as a convergence of long-term cycles, long-term trends in the united states since its founding. can you just give us a little bit of an explanation of that? >> of 80 years the united states is a shift in its institutional structure. we are at the point where we are going to do another shift. gerry: so 185060 civil war world war ii,. >> world war ii we invented the government of experts technology. and we've done very well until we haven't. because experts know little things they don't know the whole thing. but we've lost the right to petition the government petitioning the government is fundamental to our constitution and the constitution. when you go to talk to the federal government at this point, there is no one to talk
to. in those you talk to have no authority into anyway. you cannot petition a member of congress. gerry: you think that systems broken down? >> it's broken down in so many ways even the complex system they don't understand. and the individual when they need something that is not anticipated in the regulations there is no common sense. so where american government after world war ii was operated on common sense and informality it has become rigid and inflexible and unsustainable. on the other side you have the social crisis with happens every 50 years, the reagan era was enormously successful and produced a massive amounts of money. we are now in a period of time where there's few things too invested in the price of money has collapsed so that retirement becomes impossible, savings become meaningless. gerry: to the 80 year institutional cycle in the 50
year social cycle is converging the 2020s. what happens? >> i think it's easier because we can't solve this social problem without changing the way the institutions work. and we can't change the institutions unless we make a transformation in the social cycle. so we are at a time, and i don't want to overstate, we will not be rethinking his americans don't rethink things. what we are doing is under tremendous stress and making significant changes. and during times like this one of the things that happens is our politics go wacky. we have donald trump what more can we say. gerry: that we have bernie sanders a socialist. >> this is a time of the normal process of american politics breaks down and we have a series of incredibly intense and unpleasant elections and behaviors. and that will go on. gerry: what goes on that this goes on for the next two years
how do we get beyond that? is this something that happens organically or do we need to make changes to both our institutions of the way our economy works to get through this and get to the next phase? >> we are going to have to have political pressure to change the way the government interfaces with the public. and the way in which we create legislation. we don't know that legislation has been created. gerry: technology gives us the opportunity for us to do that. oh talking my things like direct democracy work everyone by hitting a button could make laws every day? >> not a doll i'm speaking of representative government where there is representative on the other side who has some authority. the basic fact is an ordinary citizen cannot find anyone who has the right to exercise common sense. that is an amazing revolution really and that will change. gerry: how does that change
what is the calm after this storm of 2020? >> one thing that has to go is primaries and most people don't pay any attention we wind up in a very strange choices. we used to have party bosses. and they gave us eisenhower, roosevelts, extraordinarily good candidates. then we have the party system and some were okay and some were not. what we have to go back to is the system the government of the united states had for 30 years which was that the parties were not party of the government. they along to the owners. gerry: this is the left democracy in the party bosses candidates came from smoke-filled rooms with largely men who decided who the person was gonna be in your now singer to go back to
a less than them democratic approach customer. >> it's not democratic is a tiny fraction of people cared to choose the job. like the internet where the idea was we are going to have thoughtful discussion between reasonable people. it turned into chaos. the primaries really did that as well. they turned into a minority of people governing with no recourse. gerry: georgia want to come back and talk about more of the issues you raise your book and more generally the geopolitical trends we're facing in the world at the moment. but stay with us, will be back in a
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ask your parkinson's specialist more than one million people in the unwith hiv.es are living we are your family, friends, and others that you love. hiv does not define who we are. when you support us, you make it easier for us to live healthy lives. we all have the power to stop hiv stigma. gerry: i am back with the founder of political futures george friedman. the 21st century has not so far at least worked out particularly well for the united states there's a paradox there because we ended the 20th century, the 1990s with america the single global power. the soviet union had been
defeated, people talked about a unipolar world unites it seem to dominate all. since 2000 we've had terrorism, disappointing wars in iraq and afghanistan, we had a financial crisis we've had withdrawal. it is not been a great 20 years. what's gone wrong? >> in 1991 for the first time in five years there was a single european global power there's only one global power, the united states. it was the first country the staged a revolution against imperialism, but there was. it did not have the institution managing and it did not manage it. had a world war ii model. they attacked us, we are going to hit them with everything we have. so there is no settled a anything. we have learned a great deal. barack obama and donald trump, although they would not admit it had a similar view and reduce the amounts of action to take increase the amount of action we take. gerry: is that wrong customer. >> i think it's quite right.
it's self-evidently expect 18 year losing wars so ending was probably a good idea. also, the key thing is the united states is a large economic world power, and more important the largest importer. that power that imports really allows us to dictate other countries what is the price of getting access to denied states. and this we have seen in the confrontation with china over trade. gerry: do you think president trump is a having the approach right customer. >> i think it's right it's same approach a bottle is taking, he was moving in that direction. so despite that of the different ideologies, beliefs, personalities, history compels the united states a certain direction. gerry: let's talk about china you just raise it there. that is obviously the emerging great power and many people's views, second-largest economy in the world people many people think will overtake the united states the next hit
ten, 15, 20 years. growing military and political power. going to real crisis right now on multiple levels. challenges to its own rule, like hong kong, china's economic growth united states, and of course most recently this coronavirus. give us your sense, your long-term observing of what's going on there. so china else's economy on exports. since 2008 the world is been an export crisis. the exporters are scrambling for markets. china's financial system resembles it. we can take a look at japan, the way it collapsed in 1980s. you see a model there. the important thing to understand is the key thing she was it elected do is control the country. you don't need a dictator if you're in good shape. and his biggest job was to manage the president of the united states who could not be managed by anyone. on this person understood that the united states we ask for
less than half of a percent gdp they have over 4% and would stop that. they were in trouble. the problem with the virus is, we don't know what it does. it was so badly mishandled by president xi jinping let a combination of secrecy and incompetence, now the question is does he survive? the idea they're going to bypass the united states with their economic growth. their growth numbers are collapsing and i don't believe them anyway. the china release their gdp numbers. gerry: with this really question residents she's position? >> let's take a look hong kong, the south china sea made no progress whatsoever. confrontation with the united states, many things going wrong in the financial system that is deeply troubled. and now this.
i thought before this happened come inside the central committee there moves being made, raising the question does president xi jinping really know what he's doing? i think this is going to push gerry: what could follow him could be worse in terms of authoritarianism. you have a sense? >> thereto of china one model is the emperor's powerful the countries united in the other was in place a hundred years was china's fragmented. it's interesting to me they brought in the head of the shanghai party because shanghai has been fighting with beijing quietly a great deal. so there is a regionalism in china that is frequently ignored. gerry: let me stop you there got to get a quick
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gerry: i am back with george friedman. george is directly united states, that the presidential election coming up in a matter of months. we still don't know who the democratic nominee is going to be. it looks increasingly like or we could have bernie sanders. the next presidential election this year it be to political outsiders. donald trump from four years ago he wasn't given a hope by many people the republican side. a nationalist, and economic nationalist very much against the grain of the republican party for the last 20 or 30 years. on the democratic side we could have a self-declared socialist very much different than the democratic party. what is that tell us about american 2020? >> during the crisis, the outsiders come in. so it's not as if we've had a
highly successful corps of politicians who we can turn to. we have very questionable ones. that part of the public like him precisely because he was an outsider. and then turning sanders i love to win or not, but they're turning to sanders for the same reason. the democratic party is moving away from anything we've seen before. that's what you expect to see this political cycle. this is the preface. out of the preface will come the real struggle, who are we, what do we want, and just as ronald reagan and franklin roosevelt emerged at these times, someone will emerge. in the meantime, we got warren g harding, and richard nixon. [laughter] x the way it works. gerry: there does seem to be a fair amount of pushback by the establishment for both of these on the republican and democratic side. i don't know what we can type do deep state in washington.
are they being a clips now? are we really into a. riordan political competition between two people with a radically different views on how the government should be run for those who have run it for so long. >> america's ruthless in the establishment has not been succeeding. they haven't had that much accountability. there looking at the behavior of the meter of donald trump or they are horrified the extremism of the senators. they don't forget is they didn't succeed. what you're seeing here is a natural process is bloodied and nasty as is, they are dealing with the establishment. there is no establishment. they think there is an establishment, biting for the "new york times" there must be an establishment, but the countries not listening.
gerry: is it possible to see commonalities between aiken we don't know he's going to get the nominee he can still be beaten. but between bernie sanders and donald trump. as different as they are in terms of the way the economy should be run, is it possible to see the forces that are driving them in common terms? >> they both promised not to be the way it was before. what they have in common is not any real vision of what should come, but a real sense that what came before is over. until this is the transition points common in this transition point you will see politics that will convince people the republic has collapsed. gerry: and the minute or so we have remitting back to the theme of your book come the storm we are going through in the calm, what do we get to the end of this process? what we get after truck, sanders, or whatever comes after that, what does america look like and tenure time? >> the problems are dealing is
this. the middle class earns $35000 a year. that's a lower rental class we have house in a car, that's impossible for the vast numbers of the white industrial class are being thrown out. there is a term mendez struggle with the universities everything else. this class, that has to be handled. the place is at the university and you see that battle he be getting. gerry: at the moment it's being won by the woefully politically correct crowd you think they'll change question work. >> and how soon it will. these people know that to get access to the elites, they have to get to the university. the university is financed by $16 trillion in government loans. when those loans stop, the ability to work six hours a week will go away. and when that goes away,
university is going to be forced to reconsider itself. that process is going on right now. gerry: the book is the storm before the calm. up next, my thoughts on american. civilians in the face of global and domestic i'm your 70lb st. bernard puppy, and my lack of impulse control, is about to become your problem. ahh no, come on. i saw you eating poop earlier. my focus is on the road, and that's saving me cash with drivewise. the better question would be where do i not listen to it. while i'm eating my breakfast... on the edges of cliffs... on a ski lift... everywhere. ♪ download audible and start listening today.
but provide habitat for twelve percent of all animals. why are wetlands such good homes? the plants, water and soils of wetlands provide food and homes for mammals, birds, fish and more. sadly, wetlands are at risk. and that puts wildlife at risk too. to find out more about wetlands and how you can help, visit ducks.org. gerry: these are undoubtedly unsettling times, pandemics,
market panics, rising global tensions that propel us to turn inward as a nation. but home, loss of faith in traditional politics and institutions and a makes enemies fellow americans. this all leads us to want to try something new and different. nationalism perhaps, socialism, anything not associated with conditions that created the certain uncertainty. but america we should not forget is uniquely blessed with robust institutions built to withstand the rising positions. and the creativity to develop solutions and technology, healthcare, finance, education, and yes indeed, governments. that paved the way for a better future. and worrying as things may be, we can take comfort the country has survived much worse. it should also be noted that despite the challenges by most measures, these are still among the best of times in this countries a short history. with that, that's it for this week, for though it is show
updates be sure to follow me on twitter, facebook an instagram, i will be back next week with an in-depth look at the super tuesday primary results right here on the wall street journal at large. thank you so much for joining. ♪ ♪ this week the markets rocked by the coronavirus as it spreads around the world. what it means for the economy in your portfolio. mortgage rates fell to three year low, how low can they go? and is now the time to refinance? and the stocks that defied wall street's wild ride, which ones are holding steady and why? barron's roundtable starts now. welcome to barron's roundtable we get behind the headlines to prepare you for the week ahead. i am jack otter. we begin with what we think are the three most important
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