tv Making Money With Charles Payne FOX Business May 2, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
yeah, interest rates backing up. you have a lot of companies giving some warnings that make you feel, hey, last week might be a continuing preview to ongoing attractions. the dow down about 333 points. i'm sure my friend charles payne can fix this or at least explain this. to you, my friend. charles: i will choose the latter for right now, neil. neil: good move. charles: thank you. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne this is "making money." breaking right now after the worst start to a year ever for the nasdaq, second worst session to end a week ever, section work h worse ever for the s&p as kneel pointed out everyone is flying to the exits. professional investors are bearish because they want more individual investors take more pain. guess what? that is exactly what the fed wants to do. the investing g.o.a.t. isn't off when it comes to age but he sounded like a man yelling at
the clouds with bitcoin. danielle shay is here with earnings as we head to the close. all that and so much more on "making money". ♪. charles: market conditions and circumstances like everything else in history they tend to repeat although not always exactly. some say they rhyme. that is what makes the current backdrop so problematic. the market dealt with wars, inflation, the threat of recession, but quantitative tightening, a brand new idea. it was tried once before for a short period of time. think about this the notion fed will aggressively hike rates and pull money out of the economy even as the economy is drifting lower, that presents a unique dilemma. now i'm not sure what the road map is or what the theorem is what happens next. consequently the market continues to stumble, going into the last two weekends it obviously felt like we were jumping out of an airplane
without a parachute. look at last friday, folks. that was the second worst trading day of a month ever. even with the selloff, record-setting losses to the start of a new year, many experts are saying the individual invest is not crying uncle loud enough yet. despite $20 billion came out of mutual funds, you see this right here in back-to-back weeks. put to call ratio at levels generally signal way oversold conditions. then there is $60 billion to poured into global money markets. that is dry powder associated with turns. whatever happens next i want to bring in gary kaltbaum, shah gilani, my go-to guys. shah, you have been this camp that the individual investors have not screamed uncle yet, both you guys have. what do you need to check off the capitulation box? >> i think charles, we could see 10% drop from here, possibly 15%. i think that would scare investors.
we could get a blow-off capitulation got there. what would be scary, if that happens, how low we could go on that blow-off. i think there would be very few bids even for the stocks that have been really oversold. i think we could then see a pretty frightening day or two couple of days of drops. that for me would be the capitulation bottom i start to jump in. charles: shah, sounds like you're describing a game of monopoly. go to go. not collect it hundred dollars. not go past go again? gary what do you see. >> legs of bear markets end in capitulation. bear market we saw in february 24th. bar market bottoms take time and price, revisiting price over time. we don't even need to be one day, too early. the bottom line when leadership starts to show up, when we start to see the stairsteps go up that will be it. i can tell you flat-out there is
too much talk about sentiment right now which is very, very bearish, which you do get countertrend rallies from that but sentiment in bull markets is much different than sentiment in bear markets an vice versa. so just be careful. we're going lower. this is on jay powell. all you have to be doing is listening for last 18 months here. unfortunately he is boxed in and unfortunately he boxed us in. charles: over the weekend we learned warren buffett put a big chunk of money to work. bout 600 million more on apple. he was upset it went higher. he wanted to buy more. he bought a ton of activism, trading 24, 25% discount to take over from microsoft. has exxon. a lot of those names you mentioned you loved in the past. have you done any nibbling at all? >> haven't done any nibbling, or about to. i like the activision play. you could buy activision, put a
7% stop on it in case the deal falls through. you're risking 7%, make 22, 23%. we like that. we like microsoft, like chevron, those plays. if viewers to get into oil play, exxon has better dividend deal, forward p-e of less than 10. just announced another 30 billion-dollar buyback program that would be probably my pick in the energy field. charles: interesting you brought up dividends because goldman said in the weekly letter, quote, we recommend investors own stocks with high dividend yield and growth. gary, are there names out there that attract you, that fit the bill? >> not right now. one of my rules of bear markets is eventually they get them all. they're now getting apple. apple has had a big topping out now. they're getting the oil stocks. i think oil is topping out. i think they're getting the commodity stocks. anything been left standing
they're coming after right now which means probably more to the downside here. again every day i am scanning 1500 to 2000 stocks, 200 sectors, every country, every commodity, and every day the amount of names that are sticking an holding up is less and less and you see it every day. the new yearly low list is gargantuan. the new yearly high list, there is nothing there. by the way they're getting the defensive areas like utilities and reits. even hershey's, coming after hershey's chocolate. the horror of it. charles: great while it lasted. gary, global number sales were up. numbers are fantastic. americas are up but month over meant down 1 1/2%. at the same time city group said own the chip names into earnings. maybe they're oversold. any sense they're oversold? >> i think citigroup is nuts. all you have to do is look at how the inventory of lenovo,
hewlett-packard, and dell has gone up 44% over the last so-and-so amount of months. there is too much inventory and not enough demand right now. i think demand is really starting to head south. you saw it in gdp i think we'll get more of it. it is just not time. i'm a big believer in never buying something in a huge downtrend. semiconductors happen to be the worst space. you know i love the group when it's right. right now it's wrong and frankly i'm not even willing to bet a dollar on them just yet. charles: i got 10 seconds, shah. you kegging any of those tires? >> i like nvidia down here. some of the big growth stocks, big name tech stocks are on sale, we're start tock nibble at those with the proviso we're willing to buy lower. we'll average down. nvidia looks great here, shopify looks great here and amazon looks great. we're going lower. opportunity to average down in
the big names. charles: love it. two of the best. i appreciate you. i like to bring in another spy who is really amazing lpl financial's ryan dietrick. ryan, first four months of the year record breaking carnage, all kinds of records, historically what comes next, what will we see the next few months, the next 12 months? >> yeah, charles. these are some bad records i guess you could say. worst start to the year for the s&p 500 since 1939. we took a look at the 10 worst starts to a year at end of april, which just happened. good news, let's bring good news today. pretty solid returns the rest of the year. next eight months. 10% on average those final eight months. the average year gains about 5%. so you could say double the average returns rest of the year but a very rough year. bonds have not done well either as we all know. we're optimistic second half of the year we can get some higher
prices finally. charles: sell in may and go away, right? obviously today is resonating more than normal. is there more than folklore? is there something to it? >> yeah, charles, sell may, go away, we hear about it everier. >>. there is the worst six months of the year starting right now until halloween. up less than 2 months per average. worst six months. we left the best six months. here is the thing. it is not gospel. nine of the last 10 years these worse six months were actually higher. we've seen some pretty spectacular gains. we're not ignoring the weak seasonal period especially the midterm year. sentiment pretty dour, maybe one more whoosh lower, put/call ratio spike, maybe we get a surprise rally in the worst six months like we've seen recently. charles: market sold off since the first rate hike, more than normal by does, 6% versus 3%. what should history say we should be bracing for particularly with a more aggressive fed that will start
hiking more aggressively this week? >> truth is this, fed starts hiking mid-cycle. there are a couple years left to economic expansion but an aggressive hike, been a while we've seen that. we saw 17 rate hikes in 2004, 5, 6. up with 5% on fed funds rate. that is, did stocks go state up then? no. three straight years of gains. one of the years is a double-digit return. not spectacular. we think if we get better news in the economic front, earnings season has been great, charles, maybe we can with stand the higher rates. we've been there before. we think we can do it. charles: ryan you studied this inside and out. you know it better than anyone else. all things considered, known unknowns, where is the best place to be in these uncharted waters? >> we stick with stocks here. sounds cliche to say. midterm year, 17% peak to trough average. we're getting another down day, a year later up over 30% on average off the lows of a
midterm year. to us, we like stocks over bonds. we still feel that way. we're more even weight value and growth here. we think there is opportunity on both sides. stick with stocks. the pullback makes sense of the by end of the year it will justify and make the bulls kind of smile. charles: we'll play this a year from now, hopefully we'll toast each other. thanks a lot, ryan. appreciate it. you're one of the best like i said. coming up we have legendary economist, art laffer. he says that the dow could go, get this 2900. how does powell get back all the lost credibility from the transitory fiasco? we have alfonso will join us right after the break. ♪.
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"laugh-in." they are grumbling these days, here comes the fed. no one is laughing or some dark comedy or even a farce here. street looking for avalanche of rate hainings into december. 2500 basis points that is a lot, not seen before. i want to bring in head of marco compass. let me start. lots of doubters out there. they don't believe the fed will go through it, the powell led fed being aggresive as advertised even though some is working its way into the markets. what are you modeling for? >> charles. appreciate being here. always a fan of the show. thanks for having me. charles: thank you. >> federal reserve has three problems in front of them, inflation, inflation and inflation again. as we know there are two-ways to slow down inflation. you either solve the supply side of the equation or the demand side of the equation. on the supply side what can
these guys do? make the ports from shanghai come faster? no worst ukraine and russia. ukraine export more corn and wheat or nat-gas? they can't. they can slow down demand. slow down demand in a economy of 35 trillion of private debt, that is hugely levered economy. the private sector side not only on the public sector side. what you do you raise interest rates. you make borrowing costs expensive. that way you slow things down. that is what they're going for. charles: i want to pick up on that, because you posted a chart. i have it right here. u.s. household net worth as share of disposable income. folks, this is amazing. this is wonderful. we're rich! we're rich! but here's the thing, the fed wants to crack this, they want to beat it down! how do you explain to folks, al, the fed thinks it is better to destroy wealth, they think this should be their job, people worked hard. their home prices will go down. their purchasing power will
about down. that is better than runaway inflation? >> think about this. the government of the united states printed something like 25% of gdp and fiscal stimulus in 1 1/2 years, 25% of gdp in 1 1/2 years. hand over real money to real people. at some point you have a supply issue, outside of controlling inflation. now what you're going to do? you're going to take the wealth effect they created, today by making borrowing cheaper and cheaper and cheaper to lever up and buy more assets like houses with cheaper mortgage rates. then you will reverse the process. you will make a hole in the consumer balance sheet. then the animal spirits will then fade away. charles: isn't though the risk that you can go too far? we need those animal spirits, right? those animal spirits are the core of america. that is how we overtook the uk. how we became the great economic powerhouse of the world. it is a dangerous became, isn't it, when you start to tinker
with the animal spirits? >> yes it is. consumers represent about 70% of u.s. gdp. that is not by chance. we just said that right? it's a very delicate balance. the fed is dreaming of a so-called soft landing that we never see, right? when you tinker exactly with the animal spirits, exactly with the leverage, there is always the risk you will go too far and cause a recession. if you look at real gdp data we just had it doesn't take too much to put u.s. into recession, doesn't it. charles: no, it doesn't, right? i want to let folks, you caution investors have to be defensive, have to be disciplined. have patience and remind dollar-cost averaging is not always the solution. in other words, have some dry powder. we're out of time. great having you on. love your work. hope we talk again soon. >> thanks, charles. >> see you alfonso. coming up famed economist art laffer's dire warning on inflation and your portfolio, if the biden administration gets its way.
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charles: my next guest issued a warning over the weekend in "the wall street journal," quote, if mr. biden doesn't change course the dow jones industrial average would fall from its peak, recent peak of 36,800 to less than 29,500 by 2038. adjusted for inflation the index would drop even further. founder, chairman of laffer associates, art laffer joins me now. art, your piece went through great lengths to warn folks about the double-whammy of inflation. most people talk about the hit at the grocery store. you went a lot further. share it with us. >> well, basically what you saw
i'm probably the only one you know, charles, who has lived through all of these inflations. from, i think it was february february 1966 the dow jones industrial average stood at i think a thousand, just barely went through an intraday high and in august of 1982, just before the boom started, i think august 13th, it was at 7777, which is a 22.3% drop over 16 1/2 years. but if you take into account of the trebling of the price level, the dow went from 1000 to 235 which is a 76.5% drop in real value over 16 1/2 years. that is a bear market, in large part brought on by inflation. but then on the silly responses governments took to inflation, by raising taxes, raising regulations, trying to allocate gasoline. i don't know if you remember jimmy carter's gasoline stuff, wellhead price controls, excess
profit actions, it took reagan and volcker together to bring inflation under control. if biden doesn't change course we have another jimmy carter. in fact he is worse than jimmy carter. you can't believe the great president will need to bring this back uncontrol. that is not an easy task when politicians are around. charles: the main concerns you have with respect to president biden, i guess still continued efforts for "build back better." potentially higher taxes including capital-gains tax. i don't know where student loan debt comes in. that could be another gift, air quotes, $900 billion. these things essentially could make-or-break a market for years to come? >> yeah. that would do it. that would do it really big. it is even worse than jimmy carter. so if you look at the forecasts i made, if they lasted the whole time, charles, like it did with, with jimmy carter and all the way through up to the present, i mean, what was it, johnson,
nixon, ford and carter, i refer to them as the four stooges, the largest as semblance of bipartisan ignorance put on planet earth, if it continues like that it could be a lot worse than this. it could be japan. japan the nikkei index of 1989, hit 38,000. what is it 22,000, 23,000 right now? i mean that's, 40 years. charles: even now their central bank will not attempt, they will keep buying, keep printing. they crossed the rubicon a long time ago. >> exactly. charles: i do want to ask you, when you it comes to central banks, president reagan using part of a blueprint you were the author of, paul volcker what they had to do to arrest inflation, it wasn't politically popular at the time. the dow rallied 30,000 points over 30 years. how confident are you that
powell could do the same thing. >> powell could do the same thing. i don't think he will do the same thing. volcker had to get interest rates way above inflation rate to control monetary growth. he was able to do that very well that is the taylor rule, get interest rates up above, money tight. reagan got the biggest tax cuts ever, in '81, and '86, that created supply of goods coming on stream. let me say that is only part of it. there was also regulations. ronald reagan deregulated. all this stuff is silly. they're doing it now again. charles: if it wasn't for senator manchin i don't know where we would be right now. it ain't good but still. art, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> charles, great fun being on your show. you haven't asked me on enough. charles: that won't happen again. i have to talk to somebody on the booking team. somebody is in trouble. that is all i can tell you [laughter] >> i'm waiting for a call from charles payne.
hanging by the phone but no. charles: my next guest also voicing -- >> i would love it. charles: amazing concerns about this market, co-founder data track research, nicholas collison. nicholas, another day of wild gyrations and this market it is feeling very, very beat down here. yet i think you see it going down a lot further. >> yes. i think that's right. we have too many uncertainties facing the market both on the earnings side and interest rate side. that is ultimately what drives stock prices. we usually don't get a double-whammy worrying about both but we do now. charles: let me ask but the earnings side. ryan dietrick described the earnings season as great. 80% beat on earnings, 72% beat on revenue, better than expected. some pretty good numbers. where is your concern coming from corporate earnings? >> straightforward, $55 a share earnings on q4. we might do 54 in q1. we're just about on par with q4
but the street is at 60 bucks for q3, q4 this year the numbers are way too high, given the slowdown we're seeing. that is my concern. surprises are fine. the street is looking for way too much of a jump from q1 to q4. that the issue. charles: they have set themselves up then? >> yes. they have overshot. charles: big tech, i was looking at xly, looking at russell, looking at nasdaq, looking at the nasdaq 100, looking at charts over the weekend. they're all cracking key support. big tech led us up. do we need it to turn around? somehow this is the keys isn't it, one of keys to get the market on firm footing? >> the funny thing about the s&p, you think it is 500 stocks, but 30, 40 of the decline in six or seven stocks, all the big ones. tech led us down. i don't see a near-term bottom for tech. most important thing for viewers, a stock making a new
52-week low, you should sell it. those names will lose as we to forward. we're not through with the bear market yet. if you're at 52 week low on the stock be careful,. charles: take the pain, take the pain, mitigate it for later? >> exactly. charles: outline, i was going through your website and also your twitter. great stuff by the way. i hope everyone looks at it. three worse case scenarios. we don't have time to go through in detail. what are the worst case scenarios? you have specific numbers? >> basically played the game, okay what is the worst that can happen to the s&p, bottom line is 3,000 on s&p. that is what happens in real recession when earnings drop. that is what happens you get a brutal bear market like 2000 two or 2008. that is the worst-case scenario. slightly better is one. 10% below these levels. 50-50 shot at recession. 10% downside in that case. maybe 20 in the worst case. charles: i have to wrap this up. where do you go? where do you put money.
>> near term i like energy a lot. charles: really? >> health care. oil price will hang around here. energy sector is so small. apple is 8% of the s&p. entire energy sector is 1% of s&p. way too cheap. charles: used to be a lot bigger. nick, appreciate it. >> thanks a lot. >> breaking news for you right now, new york city, that second amazon warehouse, the workers there voted rejected a union bid after months of organizers, few months after they pulled off the successful union effort on staten island. voters are still, the votes are still being tabulated, ballots against the union already at a point they have denied it, they have rejected it. meanwhile the "oracle of omaha" not holding back on bitcoin investors. say he is not a fan. jim bianco is a fan of bitcoin and buffett. he is caught in the middle. he will explain how he feels next. also other billionaires taking to twitter over the weekend to give all kinds of stock market advice. should we be taking it?
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♪ charles: this past weekend we heard from a lot of billionaires, folks. they all had thoughts or suggestions about the stock market and other investments warren buffett and charlie monger made the headlines in a little bit of news this weekend, right? primarily they simply didn't mince words for bitcoin and disdain for investors and professionals involved in it. i want to bring in jim bianco. buffett said he wouldn't buy all the bitcoin in the world for 25 bucks. monger said it was stupid, evil, it made people look dumb or bad. i know that is why he doesn't do it. you like bitcoin, part of the
fintech revolution. so what are they getting wrong? >> i think they're not appreciating the technology that is behind it right now and, charles, to be blunt about it, warren buffett is the g.o.a.t. he is the greatest investor of all time but over the last 15 years or so, his returns have been lackluster and one of the reason his returns has been lackluster, in oh shucks kind of manner, doesn't understand technology, hasn't really invested in it. i know he came to apple lately in the last couple years. he wasn't there in the '90s, and he wasn't in microsoft in the 2,000s. that is why his returns have been lagging. well, here is a new technology, the blockchain and bitcoin and there is a lot of exciting things going on with it. two things can be true at once, it is a new emerging technology and a lot of these protocols and a lot of things we're doing with it can fail. it can also whatever comes out of this can be transformational
at same time. it is part of bigger idea that he doesn't understand the technology. charles: the notion that it is evil, where is that coming from? >> this is not new for them. back in 2018 buffett called it rate poison squared. charlie monger has been saying some nasty words about it too and that begged the question, if bitcoin, blockchain, cryptocurrencies, mean a new financial system, these two guys have been poster children, i know they're not children anymore, of, successful existing financial system. charles: right. >> they lose in a big way if there is a disruptive change to the financial system. charles: i saw a curious tweet of elon musk. he had a tweet about the market. and part of it said that buy stocks in companies that make products and services that you believe in, only sell if you
think their products and services are trending worse. your thoughts on that financial advice? >> yeah. you know, him and jeff bezos and bill gurley of benchmark capital, all these guys have been tweeting out over the weekend and there is a broader theme to this. seems like they're a little bit cautious on the market. what elon is saying is, basically buy things you understand. well i guess we're a long way away from you know, buying all the new technology work from home stocks that no one understood, why anyone would pay absurd valuations for peloton. charles: right. >> we definitely have gotten away from that right now. jeff bezos was warning about the market being overdone and bill gurley was warning about the market being overdone too as well. there is a lot of concern among those billionaire type, wealthy investors and wealthy corporate managers that these markets might be very vulnerable right now. charles: but, jeff bezos, i will pick up on that one, because he
warned about the unstoppable bull market and he warned to your point about these painful lessons but ironically investors in amazon kind of given them these pearls of wisdom a year or two ago? >> i mean exactly. or even a day or two ago because it was friday that amazon's stock was down 14%. so you know, some people said it smacks of him trying to say, the reason that amazon's stock got smashed so much, it is about the market, it is not about anything that amazon did. you know, that is probably not the case but i do think his overall message is one that you're hearing from a lot of quarters lately and yeah, it would have been nicer if he could have given that message earlier especially before the dismal quarter that amazon reported. >> jim, you're a brilliant market guy and a diplomat as well. see you soon. >> vote for me. >> got it. markets trying to stage a rebound. they started off early trying to stage a rebound.
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♪. charles: so far 279 members of the s&p have reported their earnings results, the beats have been hefty on the top and bottom lines. blended results also doing much better than expected but it has all been about the misses, right? the misses have been punished big time. we have simply trading options director, danielle shay. look at that smile, you've been killing them. short this one, short that one. people are going to the bank. when will you get danielle on, it will be soon danielle shay, making money. i need to know we're going through the second half of the earnings season because all stocks have been hammered. is it going to be harder to play these to the downside? will some start to be impressive? >> you know, charles, i do think
it's a little bit harder to play them to the downside here. i have a couple on my list, i want to warn the viewers, already down a lot, they're already on lows. i don't want anybody getting too aggressive but i have a couple on the littles i think could keep falling. that would be uber, lyft, shopify and crocs. that is because these were, you know, names that rallied so hard during the pandemic. they're all getting crushed right now and i don't think they're going to do very well on earnings. as far as something doing well? maybe airbnb. charles: i'm long airbnb. i think we may have some uber. i'm not 100% sure. crocs, i agree with you. made 1000 percent move. in part nurses were wearing them. they were come fatherrable at home, once in a lifetime kind of thing. i want to ask you about the semiconductors. i talked to gary kaltbaum earlier in the show. he loves semigenerally. he is worried about them. yet citi says these are names
that will do extremely well when earnings come up. would you be long any of those? >> you know, charles, i've always been a big fan of the semis. i do have a lot of long positions in the semis, especially amd. qualcomm did well and i think there is the potential for them to do well. my main problem here they have already fallen so far, people are bailing on the stocks, because they rally sod far, they have the potential of margin calls. i'm holding amd i will keep holding it. i keep looking for buy spots, my expected move could call to 75, break to 65, a a at which point i would buy well. at at that point get me out of the foxhole. you say, hey, the coast is clear. talk about the put/call ratio. it is surging like crazy. often you know, we're told when you see this sort of thing it is actually a contrarian signal. in other words, because there is so many puts against calls it is actually a buy signal? >> yes.
and that's the number one time where i will look for a short squeezes when everybody is bearish, down on the lows because all that needs to happen is for there to be some sort of positive news. the market gaps higher. all the short sellers have to cover at the same time. you're absolutely right and i'm 100% looking for that situation right now but there has to be a catalyst, something, maybe a post-fed relief rally but i don't think earnings will do it this week. charles: i'm glad you brought up the fed. it is just a hunch. i haven't really, you know, a play on the old buy the rumor, sell the news but to your point you kind of alluded to it, this wednesday when the fed hikes 50 basis points and powell sounds like he is in control, he may go 75 the next time. the street thinks he is going to do the right thing, volckerresque type thing, could the market actually rally on that news? >> you know, i do think that it could. because i think we've seen a pattern this year where the market has sold off into the fed. everybody panicking, wondering
what the fed is going to do but if they do what's expected, which is a half-point hike, they don't announce anything that is too terrifying we could absolutely see a fed relief rally and for that reason i'm looking at earnings. i do want to play a few of these to the short side in a conservative way. i'm not shorting the market heavily because i do think this fed meeting, it could be a big catalyst. charles: we'll see what happens. danielle, you've had the hot hand. we appreciate it. thank you. >> thank you. charles: so the nfib, small business optimism index, die creased by 2.4% as 31% of owners reported that inflation was the single most important problem in their business. in fact that is the highest read since the first quarter of 1981. inflation has now replaced labor quality as the number one problem. here in new york city, i got to tell you it is even more difficult for business owners. covid-19 restrictions have taken a serious toll. the people are not going back to work.
trains are relatively empty and it is still somewhat of a ghost town. so i had great conversations with my next guest who just opened recently opened a wine store. he is co-owner of franklin sellers, he joins me in studio now. franklin, tell us about your business. elliot. >> we're a wine and spirit shop. charles: elliot, is the business. >> we're in bed sty brooklyn. charles: that is hot neighborhood. before covid that was one of the fastest growing hot neighborhoods in the city. >> extremely. you take a lot of individuals who left new york, left the area. it is getting very pricey for individuals to live there. so there is a lot of people moving out. charles: want to point out, you opened up in the middle of the pandemic. >> indeed. charles: you had no choice. you put everything into it. you were already laboring toward this. the pandemic comes. you can't change your plans. >> not at all. charles: how did it go? >> it was very, very difficult.
my partner actually had covid that was something we had to deal with that was really difficult and most individuals already had their wine or spirit store already. so wine and spirits, get to know me, come in let me talk to you, find out what you like, what you like to drink and what varieties you are with. we couldn't do that. so everyone continued to buy from the stores they already knew. it made it difficult for to us get any leverage or momentum. charles: how did you survive that though? i know you have some things that your store is distinctive for. >> we have a lot of women-owned products. we have a lot of black-owned products but we also have a lot of artistnal small batch, whiskeys, wines, natural wines, but we survived basically by continuing to go into our own pocket. charles: i was reading the teleprompter, i came up up to te inflation is the greatest product. periphery of my eyesight i saw you nodding your head. >> yeah. charles: how is inflation
hitting you? >> every time we get an invoice, obviously we order, product comes in, it is constantly going up. every bottle we get goes up every time it comes in, a dollar, two dollars, three dollars. the question is do we pass it on to the customers or just eat it? the bill has to be paid but customers deserve a good price. charles: that is a hell of a problem and especially recurring one. how do you make a decision? >> we do it on need or product by product basis. if it is 50 cents or something, in this moderate area we just absorb it. we have products going up a dollar, two dollars per bottle every sin voice and sometimes we even have to make the decision to raise the price or stop selling it. charles: that is primarily because trucking and all that. >> this is what we're told. we're told it's trucking. we're told it's gas prices. we're told bottle shortages, so forth, so on. but the end result we look at the invoice, it is still more. charles: i have to let you go.
we appreciate you, all small business entrepreneurs. >> thank you. charles: how do you feel, new york lowered its covid rating a little bit of a spike. how do you feel about surviving? that is a tough question to ask an entrepreneur? how do you feel about it? >> i'm triple vaxed. my staff is triple vaxed. charles: surviving? >> hopefully we'll be doing more tastes. hopefully that brings people out. charles: rooting for you. i will come back to check you out on saturday. >> appreciate it. thanks a lot. charles: many people are trying to be the next warren buffett. coming up you want to be careful specifically if anyone self-anoints themself the king? i want to talk about this. we'll be right back.
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charles: you know, we spent a lot of time today on this show talking about warren buffett. universally acknowledged he's the greatest investor certainly in the past century nobody disputes that. it doesn't mean income he got everything right or always gets everything right. obviously he's had his share of winners however. over the years though, there have been so many folks who have been "pretending of the throne" of that thing, you guys remember
eddie lampert, everyone is talking about him at cnbc, the only problem he ran sears into the ground. more recently some have said maybe it's cathie wood, although i will say, i don't think she's ever called herself the next oracle, but the self-proclaimed spac king still believes he's there. in a shareholder letter he shared this. "rule number one of investing never lose money, that's where you spit up your coffee. rule number two, never forget rule number one, he gave warren buffett credit and he said while this is correct, it's not always feasible as markets can move wildly in a very short period of time." so, he says also, when it applies more importantly that it is enough to be consistent and actively manage your portfolio. i mean let's face it big talk for a guy whose lost individual investors billions of dollars, guys. here is the good news folks 62 spacs trying to raise 17 billion have been called off for now, they will come back, so be careful whenever any self- anointed king wants to rule
you or your portfolio, especially those that have already exhibited callus and don't have any humility at all even if they led people to un mitigated disaster, speaking of which we're under a whole lot of pressure we've seen this movie the last two fridays, buckle up you're with the best, liz claman back in studio and we need you today. liz: yeah, you know, bill ackman , thinking they are warren buffett, let's see if you can get the 27% annualized returns over 57 years, new month , same story at least on the first trading day of may investors pounding the sell button ahead of tomorrow's start of the federal reserve's two day policy meeting, if the fed gets set to hike key interest rates the major indices are coming off the worst month since march of 2020 when the pandemic lockdowns shocked the world and they are losing once again, the dow down 416 points the nasdaq down 78 but famed investor warren buffett says he bought s