tv Maria Bartiromos Wall Street FOX Business May 7, 2022 10:30am-11:00am EDT
great ideas. to read more check out this week's addition of barrons.com and follow us on twitter,@barrons online, see you next week on "barron's roundtable". ♪♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> a fox studios in new york city this is maria bartiromo's at wall street. maria: happy weekend to all. welcome to the program analyzes the week that wasn't helps position you for the week ahead. i am a maria bartiromo a wild look for walter with markets lobbing both their best and worst days since 2020. all within 24 hours the drama driven by investors struggling with confidence the federal reserve containment 40 here year high inflation rate joined me too break it all down from his
kansas city federal reserve president, danna niles and billionaire real estate investors. all coming up. first let's take a look back at some the top newsmakers on mornings with maria in this edition of the week's talkers, watch. ♪ >> do you think will see recession this year? that's a lot of people here are talking about maybe it is next year, maybe it's lower per instead of being figured out the chamber were doing everything we can to keep her from happening. >> when you caring from all the sources in terms of the business climate today? what's a lot of uncertainty. i will tell you the business is even talk about the earning side the revenue side the predictions for the year, a lot of resiliency. very surprising resiliency but. >> 's most important right now from your standpoint? >> the talk is on the mortgage rate which is clearly hugely important the lack of inventory around the country still putting
such a strain on bias. i think that is the biggest story too. >> how important is this a meeting for you thing a major investor 43 billion under management. >> yes approximates very important. i think the fed has been doing a great job and telegraphing what they're going to do. >> a dead it's better than expected job support for the month of april which cap the week with job straight in the month of april the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.6%. we still have a 40 year high inflation and wages that cannot keep up. this coming as a federal reserve raised interest rates this week by a half a point as expected. the biggest hike in more than 20 years. chairman jay powell says they are not going to be more aggressive than that this year, but is that a big mistake question johnny right out of foxbusiness exclusive is the former president of the kansas city federal reserve bank thomas hoenig. it's great to have it this
weekend, thanks so much for being here. that was one reason the stock market rally this week was jay powell said they are not considering 75 basis points and a hike. your thoughts on whether or not they should. >> i think they are pretty much behind the curve. they at least have to consider it 75 basis points as they move forward from here. i also understand where they are to be cautious because if you think about it, they continue to move at 50 basis points bite major at the be close to 2% that is increasing rates by a factor of seven or eight times, that is a pretty big increase relative to where they were in a fairly short period of time so they are nervous. i think the markets are nervous about that. they have to get the rates up. inflation has got to be brought under control. and i think probably be talking five basis points before
midyear. maria: how did we get here. make keeping easy money for smog now or talk about 40 or high inflation and it really questions around whether or not the federal reserve is going to be able to tame this inflation where it's costing all of us a much more than the expected eating a weighted increase in wages. >> i think your concerns are right the public's concerns are right. there are supply factors as you have heard discussed that are affecting the economy. these are changes in relative prices they cannot continue to increase less the fed has been printing or continues to print more money for that is what they did because the recovery of the past pandemic after the pandemic started in august action for august of 2020 and yet they conducted a crisis a policy of
$120 billion per month through december and then continued to ease until just this last month. inflation has got to be high is not going to come down very easily that is a challenge they have it per the going to have to keep rates at a fairly high level to move the elite equilibrium away from zero for the two and have 3% they ultimately need to get too. >> wig and the cpi number out this upcoming wednesday. there is a big debate whether or not we are going to see any leveling off here. we are running out of can simmer inflation numbers. the estimates for wednesday's number is 8.1%. is there any reason to believe that inflation is beginning to level off or slow down from your standpoint? i know 2021 was largely a supply story but all these issues around supply but 2022 could be a demand to story.
we have not seen the destruction yet. is that where this is going to if we continue to see inflation running as hot as it is? >> first of all inflation be above 8% i don't know what the number will be on wednesday but i suspect it will stay in the 8% range. you are right the fed is just getting started. we ease until march than a symbolicas poi incnce e mnoerththlkinta btata pntsoi just's nus getow gng srted umme sum ame ahe l lcteaveav tatatp. re wheadha s s muerigoleric per spe sct... orchchifcunernms tms ssed.ed bei b think thihaheret' thehe rhehe he al clee fore fed f.
inaithntn a pn icn bri at iock down to the 2% target that's going to be a real challenge for them. >> i think you make such an important point in terms of this calendar of where we are. let's not forget, right before the fed started raising rates they are still expanding the balance sheet. the wind is 9 trillion-dollar balance sheet, how tough is this going to be not just about raising rates it's unwinding the balance sheet, right? >> i think that is a challenge is not in the kind of attention it should have. after three months they start taking $95 billion reducing the balance sheet $95 billion a month the tightening of liquidity. going to start putting they've
got to be anticipating what effects that might have in the hard part is you begin to see unemployment start to rise fairly sharply with the economy really sloughs going to be enormous pressure on them to reverse free even if inflation is above 6%. their history is to bend. going to be a very telling point i'll tell the difference with a stick to the policy until inflation is down. will be a challenge. >> if there higher rates are met with massive selloffs in stocks maybe they back down with the raising rates aside for a little while. >> that is what i think is a possibility. won't be in effect the stocks are down if unemployment stocks to rise that's when the real pressure begins to come full force. now remember there are more jobs
in demand than there are people to fill those. that can switch to fairly quickly we have a serious slow down in the economy. that is what they're going to be watching. i think that, such as the stock market is going to cause them to hesitate midstream. that is where i think the real test will come for the federal reserve. >> that certainly markets are speculating right now, really smart conversation is always free thanks so much ring with this this week and we so appreciate your time sir thank you for the federal reserve moves driving markets to extremes this week. extremes this week. so what you do about
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dried me right now to talk about how to allocate capitol this environment is funds of founder dan niles who has been spot on, on this market for a long time. dan, great to see. give me your reaction to the fed until we saw this week in terms of volatile markets. how would you assess the macro story, the growth the story of 2022? >> i think you want to stay very big picture on the markets right now for the two main themes and focused on his don't fight the fed. they were great on the way up and stimulating made a lot of money during the pandemic. the other being into raising rates, very aggressively to deal with inflation do not to fight them on the way down. the second thing is don't fight the fundamentals for growth is slowing the grace examples q1 had a negative gdp print which no one was expecting. we are looking at a recession and 2023 as our base case it. we see multiples going down, s&p
down at least 20% from peak to trough. maria: dan, look. you talk a lot about the shift in spending. we are seeing at play out. people are shifting their spending priorities from buying a lot of stuff to buying trips, spending money on travel but this was only jobs numbers this week as well. the biggest chunk of job creation are where the biggest was in hotels, leisure et cetera 70000 jobs. therefore what your take on how people are going to be spending money for 2021 was a supply story is 2022 going to be a demand destruction story? >> absolutely it's a question of demand destruction one area move into another. so during the pandemic were all at home though i think we could do is stream movies, buy things off of amazon, buy lawn
furniture, bigger tvs and use smart phone to do our jobs and ipads. at the end of this year i think we are all going to be traveling pretty got my first plane flight actually a couple days ago since the pandemic, state and the hotel, went to a movie for the first time since the pandemic. and so i think those kind of things going on vacation then as a people going to be spending their money on. the consumers sitting on over 2 trillion and excess savings from all the checks handed out during the pandemic and i think we all just want to get out and start living our lives again and just deal with covid. so that is where the switch is going to be. you want to really avoid pandemic beneficiaries and invest in the service, companies for leisure. >> so tell me how you are invested. i note you have owned a sum of those travel related companies and have done really well but you're focused on apple, the largest market value of any company. what was your assessment from
the apple quarter and the earnings quarter over all was pretty good, earnings up 10% on average with s&p 500500 revenue up 15%. what does that tell you about the year in stocks and allocating capitol today? >> think a couple of things but number one apple benefited from the pandemic as well. they from negative revenue growth in its smart phones for three out of the four quarters encounter 2019. and that number went to up over 70% or around 70% of the peak of the revenue growth. now it is certain to dramatically slow again bro think you're going to see it go negative by the end of the year for the company still has a high multiple. it's one of the companies we bought a lot of stuff to work from home, or learn from home, et cetera. so i think that is when you want to be really careful of going into year end. we are focused right now and our investments things like cruise lines were we own carnival.
airlines, we own southwest but united ceo said the best demand environment he has seen in 30 years. we own booking because you saw the best quarter for booking in the quarter they just reported in march for there is also some treacherous names in that group and we are starting to see differentiation because booer mt was a disaster. and so now it the easy money going away and the tide dropping your starting to see which ones are the winners in which are the losers. that makes even that investment climate tough. >> oh wow it is really important to be selective in this market, dan it's great to have you to navigate and walk it through with us. thank you so much good to see you. inflation is also hitting the housing markets. housing markets. prices are up but so are
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spirit welcome back but how will jay pal's anti- inflation agenda impact housing? rising mortgage rates cooled the red-hot real estate market? i poses questions billing or real estate investor, sam zell. whether it will put into the recession. >> the fed has spent so much time not doing what it should have been doing. it creates a big gap that i think can be filled without much damage. in other words i think 100 basis points even 200 basis points over the next year is not likely to put us into a recession but is probably just likely to bring
us back to barbie should be. maria: let's talk real estate, samford i know home prices are way up. even rents are way up. assess the market for us. >> in 20 years, i think in 2,092,010 we built tune of 50000. we still are not back to the million or we are just now getting to that million. when you create those kind of holes, you end up with prices going up because there's more demand than supply. maria: are there any comparisons to the 2007 upset and housing that you obviously lived through so well. or is the supply problem now making this moment different in the below piece on 2007 and eight? >> i do not think this is a
repeat of 2007 or 2008. but i think you need to take into consideration one, the amount of land being zoned for multi family is way down. the number of single-family housing is not catching up and making up for the past we've got to keep up the pace. homebuilders are having trouble finding people to work carpenters and all kinds of tradesmen are building these houses. all of that kind of comes together again going back to supply and demand, we are not producing the supply and therefore did demand remains constant in the prices go up.
>> how long can they stay up? you have such a diversified portfolio talk about healthcare, logistics, transportation. the agribusiness along with real state but you see firsthand about the shortage and labor as the truck drivers that are in such need, the wages going up and still getting eaten by inflation. tell me, what level things out then? >> what we are seeing in the very businesses we are involved in, is a lot of wage pressure. we actually own a trucking company the difference between two years ago and today is the fact that we probably overcome raising salaries and improving working conditions, we have overcome the shortage of drivers. now there is a shortage of containers and other things of that nature.
we own a big hospital change were getting pummeled by employees particularly nurses were just do not have enough people to fulfill the demand. and obviously when there is a shortage of supply, prices go up in the think that it's what we are dealing with big. >> what it's been the impact of 5% mortgage rates in your view, sam? we have to mention rates are all up to 16.6% back in 1981. when you consider the move to 5% that happens fast. what has been the impact? >> remember interest rates are interesting point to reference. the real controlling factors what is the monthly payment? the monthly payment a year ago was based on 2.5%. and today it's five.
that the laminating a lot of potential buyers in the market. i think it's putting a lot of additional pressure on those people that do light. and that clearly is going to have somewhat of an impact on housing prices and a big it's very possible we may be seeing the crest of housing the crest of housing appreciation big game today! everybody ready? alexa, ask buick to start my enclave. starting your buick enclave. i just love our new alexa. dad, it's a buick. i love that new alexa smell. it's a buick. we need snacks for the team. alexa, take us to the nearest grocery store. getting directions. alexa will get us there in no time. it's a buick. let's be real. don't make me turn this alexa around. oh my. it's painful. the buick enclave, with available alexa built in. ask “alexa, tell me more about buick suvs.”
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spirit welcome back with another big show the works for next week and. makes you tune into wall street every friday night at 7:00 p.m. eastern right here. over on the new fox news channel i will see you sunday morning on the sunday morning futures on the fox news channel but i've got exclusive interviews this week with texas senator ted cruz, former hud secretary ben
carson trump organization executive vice president donald trump junior and miami mayor francis suarez was so many moving to miami. join us sunday on fox news. right foxbusiness every weekend, start smart every weekday from 6:00 a.m. -- 9:00 a.m. eastern with mornings with maria barbie hope you will start your day with us right here in foxbusiness that will do it for us for this week and thank youu. wonderful happy mother's day to all. i will see you again next time. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪. gerry: hello this book on the wall street journal at large the supreme court posed to strike down roe v wade and let decide what laws on abortion should be. this return to democratic approach to lawmaking the end of women's rights as we know them. present leaking saved by the sacred norms, traditions and rules democrats have been taking