tv Making Money With Charles Payne FOX Business May 16, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
2:00 pm
david: you know we started all red. now there is only one index in the red, that's the nasdaq. it's still down half a percentage point. but the dow and s&p are up. that is good way to hand it to charles payne. take it away. >> i certainly appreciate it, david, thank you very much. thank you, good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne. this is "making money." market feeling for direction as wall street establishment calls for the individual investor suffer even more. the secular bear market is still intact. face it, you're not ready to throw in the towel. how do you navigate the tricky market when the experts are trying to get to you give up? fed powell among other fed fed presidents.
2:01 pm
when should they put a sock in it and do their jobs? you might say never. i was speaking in front of crypto fans in las vegas this weekend. the future looks bright. all that and much more on "making money." ♪. charles: so we begin with the, what wall street essentially on the same page. almost everyone on the street has mapped out the same scenario. they expect big bear market rallies. they say we should sell into the rallies, well there is too much optimism among retail investors. here is the premise. tell me if this sounds right to you. until retail investors are completely crushed, even more than they are right now, forced completely out out of the markee stock market is uninvestable. pros want to see more puts, higher vix, they want to see a lot of selling and more volume. there is no denying there is carnage on the nasdaq, many
2:02 pm
experts say not enough stocks on s&p 500 even though many are at a 52-week lows. a big portion of population, a big segment of investors to simply give up on the greatest money-making machine in the history. joining me, gary kaltbaum, shah gilani, john lynch. it is another thing to say stocks are overvalued, until retail investors bail out nobody should be buying stocks. giving you a sense of it, one thing they're looking for, they want much more volume. they want huge volume. on pottle they want -- puts, are you in that camp as well? >> no. i don't think retail investors will bail out to some degree where we get a mass capitulation of retail selling, create a bottom, make market invest. there are segments of the market already beginning to be investable, very attractive. they will get more attractive i think. investor will have to average
2:03 pm
down. i don't think we're done repricing in terms of valuation. i think we probably have a little lower to go. as far as retail goes they have been inactive. they have been net sellers on the way down and they have been mostly inactive lately. i don't think they will rush for the exiteds. i don't see that happening? charles: gary? >> there i think is a little too much about somebody or something or some people do this something else happens. look, i think all you really need to know in the market is what the market's doing, where the major uptrends, where the major downtrends are. stay the heck out of the way. try to enhance the good. the retail investor is here to stay but keep in mind it is the big institutional funds, hedge funds, mutual funds and the like that drive the bus and we measure that on a daily basis with their volume moves into whatever they decide to do and we follow the bouncing ball. i would just be careful about all that other talk.
2:04 pm
charles: gary, while i got you, i will get to everyone else, you talk about this a lot. the role of the federal reserve and the money printing. u.s. stock market was worth $7.8 trillion when the fed really started pumping in. that was the wilshire 5000. that was first qe. we had another qe 2008. another qe another year later, then another qe. we got up to about $50 trillion, $50 trillion. right now we're around 40 trillion. the correlation between this and federal remotor vehicle son my printing, they start to talk money out how far down will this go? >> i've been report about this in a very big way since christmas of 18. every time the market got hit, powell went easier culminating his not qe in october of 19. so i think a huge part, especially off the lows in covid he went just ridiculously too far. created all the bubbles popping left and right unfortunately anybody who got in at the highs.
2:05 pm
so i think it's a gargantuan amount. they still haven't done anything at this juncture. market is reacting to the markets which it should be that way. interest rates are much higher than they are and to be inept group. what they are good at, they talk a good game every five minutes every day. it is too much, and it is affecting the markets in a bad way. charles: they're trying to undo all of that they are trying to talk and they have, right? we've gone from 50 trillion, to 39 trillion. they have been somewhat successful. is there a part of this where the so-called fed put comes in that the market gets so low on the s&p they step in reverse course? i think a lot of folks think that could be s&p 3,000? >> hey, charles, i don't think they will re-establish the fed put. i think they want to see inflation basically at least cut in half, right? 50 year averages in 3 1/2, 4% range. we're north of 8% now.
2:06 pm
they will continue to raise. they will continue with quantitative tightening and i don't see a until we get at least 4% inflation i don't see a fed put going into place. i think potentially if they get to 2.50, 2.75 on the short end of the curve and we have a four handle on inflation the market is down by a quarter or a third they could pause. they will still continue qt. i think they recognize the importance which it has been 45, 50 years since we've had inflation at these levels. i think it is very serious today bernie sanders was -- ben bernanke was critical of them. charles: ben is in the position to be critical. >> ground zero. >> for all the gloom and doom, there is still evidence. if we look at a long-term chart the secular bull market is alive and well. shah, do you agree folks investing longer term this is part and parcel what you have to go through every now and then but stay the course? >> it is definitely part and
2:07 pm
parcel. as far as the fed put i believe the fed put is part of their new mandate. they have three-man dates. one is price stability, two is full employment and three is do no evil to the markets. i think that is the fed put. i do believe they will provide the put. i don't know what the ouch is to me close to 3,000. 10-year getting north of 1% and high yield and investment grade above treasury spread widening close it where it was in 2019. i think they will come in at some point where markets tank. that makes the markets investable that will be a cyclical bump, possibly an ugly one. at the end of the day we know what is going on here. we know why markets are going down. it is rising rates and that will make this is a very positive opportunity for people who figure out this too shall pass. charles: john to that point you know, individual investors still putting in a lot of money but you can see we're starting to really drop down here a little
2:08 pm
bit. isn't it intriguing to you, certainly for me, the first rule you hear about in the market keep investing, keep investing, buy low, sell high. it seems like this is the right move. wall street keeps chastising these folks for not getting completely out are you putting any money to work? >> yes we are. now is not the time to cave in. buffett is always talking about taking advantage, be greedy when everyone is scary. last september we started leaning towards value and cyclicals. they're still struggling today, more of a pyric victory, right? we're down less than some other areas. i just think that within the cyclical space, for example, industrials haven't done as well. they're starting to do relatively well when you look at it relative to the s&p 500 index. so we're still leaning sickly. financials have struggled but if you think about obviously energy has done well but we're positioning for energy, materials and industrials and then financials and counting on that cyclical recovery. charles: gary i know you watch
2:09 pm
the semis. they had a fantastic session on friday. some of them like amd act really good today as well. is it time to start getting back there? >> they're still in a brutal bear market. i would suggest all that happened last week they came so far down so fast the nasdaq dropped 20% in 16 trading days. so bear market bounces will happen and they will have their day again. i'm just not seeing it yet. i will say a few of the equipment-makers like amat, lam research showing better relative strength as nasdaq got trashed. they went flat. i'm just not there yet. i think the market has got some more work to do and just be careful, all this talk of secular, i can tell you there are plenty of areas no longer in secular bull market. if you're a subpoena tiptoe through the tulips compared to higher beta, tech, software, all that that are absolutely trashed. >> of course. john gone to the low beta,
2:10 pm
cyclical safe areas. shah, walmart, retail sales. we'll hear a lot about the consumer. is it too early to buy some of those names right now? >> no. i think some of those names are opportunities right now waiting to be had, with the caveat i will say you have to plan on investing a little more lower. so i don't think you should put full commitment positions on right now in company like walmart. home depot is another one. i like nvidia. we're taking partial positions there and happy to average down if the market continues to get hit again and i think it will. at some point you want to be in these great companies, not only are they on sale, they have profitability, they have the cash flow. a matter of timing catching the bottom. no one is very good at that so averaging down makes a lot of sense. charles: i always said if you pick the exact bottom you are lucky or lying. thank you very much. appreciate it. what is killing the market, folks? machines. the machines are in control and
2:11 pm
out of control at the same time. we'll discuss that next. the jeff bezos has the left outraged, white house on defense after he dared criticize the biden and democrats on inflation join me in this beautiful new studio. don't go away. you're a one-man stitchwork master. but your staffing plan needs to go up a size. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire
2:15 pm
charles: so before this new investor revolution really took off in 2020 there was already a major move by non-investors into the stock market. they were focused mostly on the marijuana sector. a lot of hopes at time of legalization and things like that. many superstar names at the time evolved. you guys remember cronus, rallied 900% from august of 2016 to february of 2019. then came a major slump. now the weed stocks got another boost during this new investor revolution but they face competition, right? people were buying the so-called meme stocks, crypto names and other stocks. moreover the hype began to fade as federal rules changes were coming too slow and the true value was not unlocked. joining me cb one capital founding partner, todd harrison. todd, lots of states legalizing
2:16 pm
these days. new jersey the most recent but still these stocks are dead in the water. what's the deal? >> well i mean there is a lot of things going on. some of it is intuitive. you have the post-covid normalization. you have frustrating delays at the state level and the real fickle leadership at the federal level that is on top of mack coconcerns about inflation, growth and the consumer but we think there is more going on here. charles: yeah i want to talk to you about that because all the other depressing things you mentioned i thought would actually drive sales but when it comes to the stock market the role of algorithms, some of these other factors that have nothing to do with fundamentals many ways seem to be stacked against the retail investor? >> we think we're seeing that in droves here. we're focused on the u.s. cannabis space. they're forced to list up in canada at the cfc where there is naked shorting, where it is legal or evidently it is legal. you have u.s. custodians from
2:17 pm
jpmorgan to, persian, last week it was vanguard putting custodians so institutions can get to it. you have a 95% retail base right now and 75% of the volume we're seeing most days of u.s. planned touching securities are coming from the algos. for a long time we saw it but we doesn't know what to make of it. we saw it. they're pernicious, out there every day hitting the sector down. not the reason they're down. algos are not the reason they are down but certainly amplify trends, they certainly create dislocations. we see a large bond fund, finally last week we had a conversation, a large quant fund targeting volatility factor trade and they have pretty significant size in u.s. cannabis, sos and those names. they have it in xbi, biotech and on the arc names as well. al goes don't know math.
2:18 pm
they only know levels. that is what we're seeing i think. charles: it is fascinating to me. walk us through a little bit more. you're saying not necessarily pernicious but if they're being programmed a certain way because algos can only do what they're programmed to do, seems like they're deliberately being programmed to create more havoc and destruction particularly in names that might be vulnerable. wall street seems engineering the stocks going lower, that investor will bail out making their job easy to make money on the short side? >> listen as we're sitting here, we're looking at the fundamentals troughing in the first quarter. we're looking at new jersey leading the tri-state with east coast online. we're very excited now. we look at multiples back through covid lows but the algos are out there every day and when you don't have institutions to set and setting price levels, these things will keep going until the trend changes or some of the inputs change. we're working on this. we're looking at it. we see it.
2:19 pm
now we know where it is coming from it is coming from a large multistrat hedge fund. not just u.s. cannabis, there are other u.s. sectors they seem to be targeting but we'll follow the funds. we like to say over time the market weighs and traders vote. we think over time the market will prove us right. charles: i got less than a minute to go. what role should the sec be playing in all of this? >> great question. you have to look at some of these things. like i said there is nothing illegal about this but are they manipulating prices? i think you could make an argument they are. it would be great if the sec could get involved and look at some pernicious types of quant trading out there but not holding my breath. charles: i wish they would. lot of people came into the market with the best intentions. the greatest money-making machine. it makes common sense. legalization of marijuana seems like a smart investing thesis.
2:20 pm
you shouldn't be down on your money because of quants or anything else. todd, well talk to you again. i want to let people know you're one of the most successful people in the stock market who got into the cannabis space so you know what you're talking about. we appreciate it, thanks. >> thank you, sir. charles: folks still to come, the real jay powell, will he please stand up? i think he did, guess what he is admitting. i will tell you later. jeff bezos said joe manchin saved the biden administration from itself. we'll get reaction on that after the break. ♪. if you invest in the s&p 500 your portfolio may be too concentrated in big companies. this can leave it imbalanced and exposed when performance varies. invesco's s&p 500 equal weight etf, rsp, is spread equally across the s&p 500,
2:21 pm
2:22 pm
so you only pay for what you need? like how i customized this scarf? check out this backpack i made for marco. only pay for what you need. ♪liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty.♪ only pay for what you need. ♪liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty.♪ living with metastatic breast cancer means being relentless. because every day matters. and having more of them is possible with verzenio. the only one of its kind proven to help you live significantly longer when taken with fulvestrant, regardless of menopause status. verzenio + fulvestrant is for hr+, her2- metastatic breast cancer that has progressed after hormone therapy. diarrhea is common, may be severe, or cause dehydration or infection. at the first sign, call your doctor start an anti-diarrheal and drink fluids. before taking verzenio, tell your doctor about any fever, chills, or other signs of infection. verzenio may cause low white blood cell counts, which may cause serious infection that can lead to death. life-threatening lung inflammation can occur. tell your doctor about any new or worsening trouble breathing, cough, or chest pain. serious liver problems can happen. symptoms include fatigue, appetite loss, stomach pain and bleeding or bruising.
2:23 pm
blood clots that can lead to death have occurred. tell your doctor if you have pain or swelling in your arms or legs, shortness of breath, chest pain, and rapid breathing or heart rate, or if you're nursing, pregnant or plan to be. every day matters. and i want more of them. ask your doctor about everyday verzenio. growing up in a little red house, on the edge of a forest in norway, there were three things my family encouraged: kindness, honesty and hard work. over time, i've come to add a fourth: be curious. be curious about the world around us, and then go. go with an open heart, and you will find inspiration anew. viking. exploring the world in comfort.
2:24 pm
gold has reached record prices and getchell gold is poised to take advantage. with major discoveries in nevada and drilling underway, they're set for unprecedented growth in 2022. getchell gold. charles: going to be a real busy week on capitol hill as the biden administration and nancy pelosi, they're coming out with a ton of legislation they say will curb inflation, make housing prices cheaper, also
2:25 pm
punish profiteers of capitalism but unlikely billionaire pushing back on the administration schemes. jeff bezos slammed the notion of mushing higher corporate taxes and taming inflation together. posted a tweet that senator manchin saved the administration by stopping them from pouring more stimulus into the economy. joining me, lili gil valetta, former white house chief economist joe lavorgna. i want to start with you. how surprised to you the owner of "the washington post" is taking on the white house. >> he retweeted somebody else's tweet. it wasn't actually him. who says it is an endorsement, assuming he believes this is sort of common sense, that we didn't need a 2 trillion-dollar package on top of what was already done in a economy that had been in a v-shaped boom unpresident trump. it is sort of basic simple economics n that regard, yes, it would have been a lot worse if we passed that plan, no less than larry summers passed that much. larry is hardly a right of center guy.
2:26 pm
he warned well before then. he talked to the white house but he didn't get far. charles: a lot of typically obama folks warning. listen, there is politics involved, l. ili i'm glad you're here. in this teeth, jeff bezos said inflation is regressive tax that hurts the least affluent. this is the main point we need to understand. all these schemes have hurt poor people, not helped them. >> that is exactly -- basic of economics with inflation 8% or more and basics like baby formula are in shortage, everything that americans need to perform are not catching up with wages at the same pace. clearly it is not working. >> biden administration taking credit for cutting deficit without speak together emergency spending needed in 2020. even morgan stanley put out a piece, that 1.9 trillion
2:27 pm
turbocharged inflation to 40-year high. we have this, it is very interesting, we have it on the screen. joe, i show it. cost of production goes up. prices go up. cost of living goes up. so wages go up. how do you break this? this thing looks innocuous, but it is killing average americans. how do we break this? >> the fed is going to break it -- charles: how? >> charles, we've only gone 75 basis points so far. we haven't begun the quantitative tightening, that starts next month yet the equity market is down 16%. we have credit spreads widening significantly which nobody is really focusing on. if the fed goes 50 in june, 50 in july, and we'll see the economy break. consumer psychology is poor, business psychology is poor. the huge food and energy hit you're right hurting lower and middle income classes, that will hurt demand lower demand. at the same time people losing money on 401(k) that is a real
2:28 pm
mess to me the demand cycle will be broken by the fed. charles: lili, the fed is trying to hurt the market. folks wondering what the heck, i didn't make that much during the boom and deliberate attempt to make things derail the economy. >> exactly, it is very tricky. what is the right balance how much do i raise of interest rates so i can temper all the inflation but at the same time, that is going to create unemployment. it will make everything more expensive. to that we have to add the threat of increasing taxes to those that create jobs and capitalists like the bezos of the world that makes no sense. all of sudden you will create more disincentives to hire people and keep the economy healthy. charles: you have the pulse of, that is the main thing you do, right? >> right. charles: you have the pulse of americans. the consumer sentiment number came out, worst number in decade. certain part, durable goods, it has never been this low. i hate to be a refrigerator salesperson right now because you ain't getting no sales next
2:29 pm
two or three years. explain waning consumer sentiment. overall malaise that seems to be a darker cloud in this country. >> that is exactly right. we analyze voices of people. last analysis 17 million people, americans put jobs and economy and inflation at the very top that affects your psyche. you're going to hold back. little savings you have you will not spend. all of that will impact our ability to really you know, temper that demand when prices are so high. you are going to hold back. it will create a compounding effect. i keep looking at that wheel. it is slow. charles: joe, one of solutions we hear from the administration, they will do a lot. apparently at the will get in the meat production business. president biden talks about this only four producers. coming to the rescue of the market. this is y-imby. yes in my backyard. it began under president obama make urbanization if you will of suburbs. you can't get federal money if you don't build multifamily
2:30 pm
homes. people move to the suburbs and rural areas, for specific reason, they don't want to live in urbanized america. >> for the government, we're here to help. that is the old cliche. i really don't have that much to add. you were very eloquent before we started what you think the impact of this. ideally you like to government to stay out of areas where they will make things worse. this is probably one of those areas where they compound the problem are. charles: lili, i got to go, they're selling this to black and hispanic communities, hey, we'll get you chief and affordable housing. interesting enough, hispanics in the polling moved significantly to the right. >> that's right. because a lot of people think we want favors, when we want opportunity. hispanic immigrants like myself came here for the american dream. that means give give me a fair t to have a job, earn a good living, not get subsidies and stimulus. charles: buy your own house? >> exactly right. give me a chance to by my own house. charles: joe, lili, thank you very much. appreciate it. the crypto implosion continues.
2:31 pm
even a top believer dissed his laser ice. i have a bitcoin believer says the investment theses became more attractive. meanwhile jay powell comes clean. does it mean he will be the next paul volcker or not? i'm not sure. so will the real jay powell please stand up. we'll be right back. ♪ lemons. lemons. lemons. lemons. look how nice they are. the moment you become an expedia member, you can instantly start saving on your travels.
2:32 pm
so you can go and see all those, lovely, lemony, lemons. and never wonder if you got a good deal. because you did. meet ron. that man is always on. and he's on it with jardiance for type 2 diabetes. his underhand sky serve? on fire. his grilling game? on point. and his a1c? ron is on it. with the once-daily pill, jardiance. jardiance not only lowers a1c... it goes beyond to reduce the risk of cardiovascular death for adults with type 2 diabetes and known heart disease. and jardiance may help you lose some weight.
2:33 pm
jardiance may cause serious side effects, including ketoacidosis that may be fatal, dehydration that can lead to sudden worsening of kidney function, and genital yeast or urinary tract infections. a rare life-threatening bacterial infection in the skin of the perineum could occur. stop taking jardiance and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of this infection, ketoacidosis, or an allergic reaction, and don't take it if you're on dialysis. taking jardiance with a sulfonylurea or insulin may cause low blood sugar. a once-daily pill that goes beyond lowering a1c? on it with jardiance. ask your doctor about jardiance. at adp, we use data-driven insights to design solutions to help you manage payroll, benefits, and hr today, so you can have more success tomorrow. (mom allen) verizon just gave us all a brand new iphone 13. ♪ one thing leads to another, yeah, yeah ♪ (dad allen) we've been customers for years. (dad brown) i thought new phones were for new customers? we got iphone 13s, too. switched to verizon two minutes ago.
2:34 pm
(mom brown) ours were busted and we still got a shiny new one. (boy brown) check it out! (dad allen) so, wait. everybody gets the same great deal? (mom allen) i think that's the point. (vo) now everyone can get a new iphone 13 on us on america's most reliable 5g network. (allen kid) can i have a phone? (vo) for every customer. current, new, everyone. to show the love.
2:35 pm
2:36 pm
stand up. many many are wondering if the real jay powell will stand up. he got confirmed four four years. maybe he is over that. maybe he has confident engineering a soft landing, tossing his hands in the air saying well it is out of control. we have sven hendrix. you've been critical of howell. do you like the new version that might be ready to come clean saying listen, i can't do anything? >> as the philosopher mick jagger opined you can't always get what you want and that may pertain to a soft landing here. look, the answer to your question is no because this is actually quite self-serving and obfuscates reality what happened in the last two years. on twitter i've been talking about they're overdoing it, they're overstimulating it. they kept printing into
2:37 pm
overheating economy with massive inflation. you can't stop structural inflation on the supply side but you fact they overdid it and the primary reason they over did it they're not admitting that publicly, at least not to the current fed board because they want to explicitly avoid a taper tantrum. so they were clearly looking at the stock market. the problem the bubble got too large. now it blew up. it is causing extensive damage to the economy as well. charles: to your point former fed chair bernanke, he must have a book or something, i'm seeing him everywhere. he just came clean, he admitted under his watch actions were stalled. they didn't want to quote, unquote, shock the market. with that in mind, how much, seems like now the market is shocked. are they taking powell seriously or trying to do his work for him? >> that is exactly it. the market has done the tightening for the fed already. then i can make some technical cases why we're actually maybe already in peak tightening mode and the fed may just simply play
2:38 pm
catchup. they have done kind of jawboning. the market is leading this. not the fed. the fed has been totally behind the curve here to trying to catch up to the market to a certain degree. the issue is, you have a traditional script, a you have a bubble, a burst and question is how much damage is being done to the extent the economy is slowing faster than the fed is willing to admit to we may be heading into recession much faster it. this notion they can hike so many times is laughable from a mathematical perspective. charles: i agree with you there. you mentioned something starting to make the rounds, comparisons what is 457ing to the stock market, the economy, to 2000. lots of similarities of the are we as vulnerable though? obviously after 2000 the economy and the stock market fell off a cliff? >> here i give you the bad and good outlook simply the bad, this time we didn't have a tech
2:39 pm
bubble but you also have a housing bubble and a bond bubble. they're all kind of just meshing together right now and it is ugly because usually you have some sort of safe haven. in the last few months there were no safe havens, bonds got hit as hard as tech and small caps for example. the overtightening in terms of the market perspective with so much debt added in the last few years is making serious rate hikes actually impossible without creating not only a recession but maybe something much more significant in terms of a depression. remember, we've addedtrillion dollars of debt in just the last couple years. a lot of this debt has to be refinanced. we're over $30 trillion. that is the mathematical issue. the potential positive outcome, i look in terms of a trifecta, the 10-year yield has tightened for the fed already, the dollar tightened incredibly being so strong to the extent other central banks like the ecb
2:40 pm
finally coming around to start doing their own raising the dollar could actually pull back and that could reduce some of the damage that's been done. we'll have to closely watch what happens with credit. junk, they have been plummeting incredibly hard. that obviously is all contributing to this tightening we're already seeing in the economy. charles: absolutely. i wish we had more time. always appreciate you. thanks so much. >> thanks, charles. food to be with you. charles: same. the crypto implosion, folks, it is raging on. the establishment, well they're moving in for the kill but the community is having none of this nonsense. we'll speak to a prominent voice there in just a moment. ♪.
2:41 pm
new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. another crazy day? whose resumes on indeed of course it is—you're. a cio in 2022. so what's on the agenda? morning security briefing—make that two. share that link. send that contract. see what's trending. check the traffic on your network, in real time, with the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. lunch? -sure. you've got time. onboard 37 new people, with 74 new devices. does anybody have any questions? and just as many questions. shut down a storm of ddos attacks. protect headquarters and the cloud. with all your data on the nation's largest ip network.
2:42 pm
whoa, that is big. ok. coffee time. double shot. deal with a potential breach. deal with your calendar. deal with your fantasy lineup. and then... that's it? we feeling good? looks like we're feeling good. bring on today with unbeatable business solutions from the most innovative company. comcast business. powering possibilities™. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones
2:43 pm
another crazy day? let's of course—you'ref it. a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business, with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want—your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with unbeatable business solutions from comcast business. powering possibilities™.
2:44 pm
charles: so i had an opportunity to speak at the risk on conference over the weekend. lots of smart investors in the audience. they had a lot of great questions including this one. >> so i'm a big fan of your roaring '20s scenario. i believe the same thing and i have thought that but where do you think the fed plays into that? >> great, great, great, question. so the federal reserve was
2:45 pm
created to stop wild business cycles in america. i want you to think about this. in the early 1900's, let's go back to the 1800's. in the 1800s there were four panics. i say they were devastating, i mean devastating. they wiped out people like crazy, you couldn't even imagine. so when we got to the 1900s, they decided we need this federal reserve system because it would smooth out the economy. no more crazy gyrations. of course that didn't work. another question, of course, that led us to discuss the roaring 2020s, which is sort of the topic. i'm still on to that. in the meantime, a lot of those stocks have been annihilated. the good news, i got to tell you, i'm spying them. i think a lot will be buy and holds here for the next weeks and months to hold for a decade. my next guest has been at the forefront of this type of
2:46 pm
investing. we have sylvia jablonski. the question was asked about the federal reserve, monetary policy with respect to the roaring 2020s. what role does the fed have to play to make sure we live up to the fruition of some of the names you have loved for a while? >> charles, great to see you. i think it is going to be a bit of a difficult task as we all expect but the issue is whether or not the fed can manage a soft landing, right? i mean we have these high levels of inflation. something has to be done about it so the fed has acted but the question is will the fed act in a way that is sort of, you know, methodical, transparent to the market and priced in along the lines of what is already priced into the market? will we be able to, will we be able to service our debt and will we be able to continue to grow? so i think a lot of it hangs on the speed, frequency, the quantity of the rates. charles: in the meantime tech stocks have been struggling the last few sessions.
2:47 pm
it has been kind of weird because bond yields seem to have peaked and they have been coming down. so what happened to this relationship, bond yields up, tech stocks down, bond yields down, tech stocks down. what is going on? >> i think a lot of it sort of doesn't matter. i think there is so much fear and panic in the markets. there is volatility due to the headwinds as we discussed. rate hikes coming, inflation, geopolitics, supply chain issues. so a lot of it has investors spooked. you have the dow and s&p correction territory. nasdaq bear market and some of the top tech names you mentioned they are in bear market territory but if you're looking for long-term investment opportunities these are the times you get in. you look back a couple years from now, you wish you bought apple at september 2021 levels. it is unlikely to happen again. charles: right. >> i'm not calling a bottom here but it is dollar-cost-average time of year. charles: i'm glad you brought that up, listen, we're in the fourth industrial revolution,
2:48 pm
the beginning of it and every time you look at the markets how these things work you always get the hype and then you get that first and then reality comes and between hype and reality we get these markets kind of fall apart. how do you scale into them when they get to the reality part, when they start to live up to some of the hype? >> that's a great question. i think in some of the opportunities out there now is a great time to get in, for example, the semiconductor stocks. i loved them when they were at higher multiples and higher prices than they are now. now i have the opportunity to buy them lower to build up my position there i think some names, talking about the fourth industrial revolution, when you think about 5g, artificial intelligence, web3, a.i., electric vehicles, running our coffee pots efficiently in the morning, you need chips for all of this. there is a cross-section of gaming, data centers, cloud, cybersecurity and all the
2:49 pm
aforementioned secular tech trends. it is really important to look at these types of names as opportunities for the future. i don't think it will take 10 years for these things to play out. charles: right. >> i think you get price appreciation along the way. it is never bad to buy when markets pull back this much. i think they pull back more. i think we're in that range now. charles: absolutely. i have to hop. you still like nvidia, is that still at the top of your list? >> still at tomorrow of my list, apple, microsoft, google, i think names are beaten up. the froth is off of them. they're good cash balance heavy companies. charles: no doubt. you don't have to wait 10 years. seeing that it probably the right move. thanks so much. i appreciate it. >> thanks. charles: the biggest topic at the risk on conference was bitcoin. we had amazing lineup of speakers. including, perrianne boring. i learned a lot, perrianne, including yours.
2:50 pm
we have a short attention span. this is tiktok public. forget about five minute elevator speech. they need two minutes or less. since last 24 hours i lost track of all the anti-bitcoin headlines over weekend. everyone is calling a demise. saying it's a ponzi scheme. everybody is dumping the list goes on and on. how do you tell the public that is not true? >> yeah. charles, i love your talk as well. i saw it, just the message, we are the fundamentals to have an economic boom in the united states was just so positive. blockchain technology, bitcoin, having largest market cap of all about it coin securities will set the stage for that economic revolution. this idea is just, it is not serious. look bitcoin has been one of the best stores of value. it has a market cap of over $1.2 trillion today and it has
2:51 pm
been the best performing asset 10 out of the past 12 years and the fundamentals of the network are as strong as ever. we're continuing to see the hash rate increase. we're also seeing the number of wallets, the number of users are increasing. we're also seeing more institutions entering the crypto and the bitcoin market. the current downturn, what we're seeing today, this is in response to the fed's quantitative tightening. this is impacting assets of all types, traditional assets, as well as crypto. economists across the board they generally agree that we were going to see all investment vehicles take a hit and that's what we're seeing. >> although there was this time one of the buy, one of the buy points of bitcoin it was detached from all the other assets. also many are saying you know, yeah, the fed is taking action because inflation's a problem and bitcoin was supposed to be a big inflation hedge. has it failed that test?
2:52 pm
>> well look bitcoin has emerged on the global stage as an alternative to failing fiat systems going back as far as 2013 when we saw cyprus to through its bailout with the european union people turned to bitcoin looking for a financial safe haven and that was the first time the coin made international news. fast forward to 2019, yeah, 2019, in venezuela, going through hyperinflation. you saw people turn to bitcoin to flee the country to get to safety. go forward to 2021 and afghanistan. the human rights foundation document ad group of women who had to use bitcoin to evacuate. they were able to take their wealth with them in incredibly dangerous and dire situation. just this year when the canadian trucker incident where you had people being cut off from their financial system right or wrong, they were able to turn to
2:53 pm
bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to be able to transact to make basic transactions to live. charles: right. >> then this amazing situation we saw in ukraine where they set up a crypto defense fund, raised over $100 million in crypto, able to deploy that to defend themselves against these atrocious actions from russia. look, we have systemic issues in our financial and our monetary system. if what we're seeing today in our economy is not a wakeup call i don't know what is, but bitcoin is your insurance policy. it is fiat system fails you, there are alternative systems to protect your purchasing power to reach financial freedom and bitcoin, it has passed the test, it has worked for millions of people on the world's stage over and over again. charles: that was longer than the typical elevator ride but you certainly made the point. i'm sold. perrianne. >> a lot of history there. charles: great valid points that needed to be said.
2:54 pm
2:55 pm
this is koli. my foster fail (laughs). when i first started fostering koli i had been giving him kibble. it never looked or felt like real food. but with the farmer's dog you can see the pieces of turkey. it smells like actual food. i saw a difference almost overnight. healthy poops, healthy dog, right? as he's aged, he's still quite energetic and youthful. i really attribute that to diet. you know, he's my buddy. my job is to keep my buddy safe and happy. ♪♪ get started at longlivedogs.com
2:57 pm
2:58 pm
could get completed at a lower price which he's been trying to negotiate all along. meanwhile investors are casting a line in a small cap pond. the russel 2,000 has been rushed like nothing else, it's a long way from signaling a turnaround which makes it actually perfect for accumulation, iwm eft sees distance at 180, the big move is 190 that's when all the big boys will get in. that's when you get a sense of urgency so if you want to position yourself maybe that's what you want to do. let's face it, this is a challenge, this market is tough picking bottoms is dangerous but knowing that the worst is over also gives you a new sense of maybe going out there and spreading out the money, so the grand scheme o things is that it's the smartest way if you have limited amount of funds is wait for the breakout, but if you can't put money to work, meanwhile all eyes on walmart, they report before you open tomorrow, couple that with retail sales you'll get a better idea with where the consumer is with respect to spending of course adjustments being made
2:59 pm
with respect to runaway inflation so it would benefit walmart, i think, this sort of environment, this is built for walmart but here is the thing the stock is actually higher on the year, although most of the time they have reported the stock has been hammered, in fact it traded down in two of the last six times, no , two times in the last traded down the last six times in the eight they reported but only one downgrade on the stock so wall street likes it a lot here. i'm not in it right now, but it's not i would tell someone not to be in. the most important thing is it's our proxy for the economy. i still think that you have to have a fair amount of cash. you want to be nimble in these markets and for those who say cash is trash remember how much money warren buffett was sitting on coming into this year. it's amazing he even let that much money pileup, in fact, he probably had too much money in the sidelines but now folks he's in the driver seat. i want you to be in the driver seat and be like warren buffett, so make sure you've got cash even if it means you have to have a heart to heart with
3:00 pm
yourself and get rid of some of the names you know are not going to come back. you want to be prepared for the eventual rebound because i think it's right around the corner. we'll see what happens you don't necessarily force things here, but know that this market is still the greatest money making machine ever, don't be part of the giant washout so wall street can pick-up your stocks at a cheaper price. you want to be the one buying, you want to be the one in the driver seat, right, liz? liz: oh, yeah and you saw that 13 of buffett's filing for berkshire and occidental petroleum and activision blizzard, thank you, charles. dow bulls making a late afternoon stampede, the blue chips down as many of 268 points this morning, now, up about 241, the s&p up 12, as it joins a late session reversal of fortune the nasdaq still lagging as former goldman sachs ceo lloyd blankfein now warns about a recession ahead. our floor show traders are here
112 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
FOX BusinessUploaded by TV Archive on
