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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  May 23, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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right now. the dow coming off an eight-week losing streak. the s&p, nasdaq coming off of seven weeks of losses. today's rally led by bank and energy stocks. obviously the market was clobbered last week. the dow is now up 638 points. we're seeing s&p with a gain of almost 2%. the nasdaq with a gain of 1.3%. for now, toss it over to charles payne. our time is up. charles: jackie, thank you very much the old finnergy trade is back. the markets starting week off in green after friday's inspirational reversal. was it the real deal? money betting on the dow side as hedge funds lost a bundle. they're betting retail investors will blink. at some point a bounce will stick but how do you avoid not being a sucker until then? as the world parading around davos, appears rest of us are tired of globalization. what it means for the world
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economy and what it means for your portfolio? should we make it easier to do business for china. when president biden is hughes musing out loud by china and taiwan. take you down a trip of memory lane. when we used pay phones and used money. all that and much more on "making money." ♪ charles: 1:25 on friday the cp effect started early, right? the stock market was in the midst of one of those free false, face it investors have become accustomed to. it was easy to believe the damage would get a whole lot worse on the weekend. who buy as late friday rally? then something strange happened. the market reversed a little bit of nibbling, open the floodgates, buyers materialized quickly. easy to write off the move friday and bear market bounce. the key is going to be weather the country can avoid the recession or not, how deep we
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go, how soon we come back. that is still up for debate. i happen to think for the moment the market will skirt official recession. back-to-back quarters of negative decline. even though the stock market still sending out very dire signals. now on that score it helps remember the old saying. paul samuelson helped coined it, the stock market forecast nine of the last five recessions. even if this isn't a recession consumers are obviously changing their spending habits. a recent survey from morning consult, majority of declines in hotels, air fares, recreation. that was the reopening trade people were betting on. wall street continues the real estate investor death watch we're learning more and more hedge funds are in a whole lot of trouble. according to one analysis, 2022 has been the worst year ever for hedge funds. you now they return to massive shorting to make up those losses. retail investors have very
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little cash in the charles schwab accounts and exposure are elevated with respect to where consumer sentiment is. in other words, they're hanging in there we have a lot to chew on. let's get the read from shah gilani and gary kaltbaum. last time we spoke you have begun to nibble a little bit. if you have begun to buy, what are you looking at? >> we have. we bought rio tinto on the recent dip. we sold it. bought it higher and attractive levels down here. bought nvidia, like it down here. with our purchases we're willing, frankly just ready to buy lower and to average down but we may not get a chance. we may see this market bounce. i don't think it has got legs to bounce but wells fargo is another one. looking forward to buy on the dip down here. we did own that before. i took a very nice profit out of that. some plays worked before i think are going to bounce. we're getting back into those.
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charles: gary you're probably skeptical. 24 hour turn around, 24 hour market turn around. what will it take for to you start nibbling? >> a lot more than that a couple things. number one, if you want to know when the market will really get going, you need to have the risk appetite indices leading the way and they're not right now. the nasdaq seems to be being led on a leash by, for a change financials are strong today. got good news out of jpmorgan. i'm just not there yet. i have, keep in mind what happened on friday is pretty simplistic. the dow dropped 2,000 points in less than three days. so it is normal at any point in time, i always say this to you, it is normal at any point in time after big drops like that to have random rallies. they make it difficult. why? because you already seen the evidence already. 45 minutes into the close on friday, the dow goes up 500, gaps up another 3, 400 today.
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makes quite tough. so 90% of the market is in downtrends. scan do thousand a day. the only areas really in uptrends are energy, a smattering of like chemical stocks and agriculture and commodities and after that there is not much, just more after bear market bounces. i just have to wait. it has been the right thing to do. charles: there is research that shows equities typically bottom out six months into an 11-month recession. again your average. all these are averages. if recession began in january that would suggest another month of pain. how are you gauging where recession starts, if we're in a recession or not and how important is that for you? >> i wish that was the case. first of all i don't think we had a declared recession. obviously the first quarter negative gdp print was beginning of that. we need two consecutive quarters. i'm on the fence as far as us seeing that second consecutive quarter of negative gdp i think consumers are still pretty
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reasonable position. i think they will continue to spend, though levels are coming down. i think economy will hang in. i don't think we're going to hit recession territory. i think we'll be very mild. as far as statistics go, mean, average sell-down on the market is 24% f we're getting close to that, we touched close to 20% on s&p on friday we still have a little bit more to go on the downside. charles: gary you mentioned financials. remember at the beginning of year it was finnergy, financials an energy. they both did very well. financials fell off the map. would you be a buyer here? >> no, but, i'm always looking for certain action, certain reactions to get me at least watching them an to start looking at them. for me always jpmorgan is the head honcho, top dog, big cheese. so the fact that they have had a good reaction to whatever they said today is a start but keep in mind, it is a good reaction
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off of yearly lows, in bear markets, in downtrends. i'm a big believer in letting some more cards come out of the deck, i would rather be one day too late than one day too early right now. because you have seen, i mean, just utter disaster in so many mainstay names, stalwarts. charles: right. >> stalwarts in so many names. it is stunning to say, netflix down 75% from the highs. so i'm just, again kicking back. let the market prove itself a little more, not be the guinea pig. charles: i don't think either of you guys are looking at some of these ultradisasters but let me ask you anyway because barron's had interesting enough, positive articles, interesting articles, recent ipos of posh and hood, and some retail that's have been beaten down. shah, is there anything like that, really savaged beaten down
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big time, zoom reporting after the close that are worth a look at? >> zoom communication, absolutely. fabulous balance sheet. i certainly like it down here. it is off 82% off its highs. that is absolutely a buy for me down here. i'm prepared to buy a little bit lower, but when you see a company with fabulous balance sheet, not a lot of debt on the balance sheet, a tremendous cash flow, just like 33 plus percent profit margin you have to own a company like that. as long as you're willing to buy more at lower levels. as far as some of the other stocks, out of ones mentioned in the barron's article, a little too speculative. they don't have earnings or profitability. those companies with rising rates will get hit the hardest. i think they will be have more to go down. charles: fake meat, fake milk in terms of publicly traded companies. they feel a little nichy to me.
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less than a minute to go. gary i know you're not a buyer but do you have a list of buys? >> i have a screen from 2 to 300 initial public offerings, best thing i tell your viewers, i can tell you some of these names will be 10-baggers. we don't know when. the problem wall street broad them out ad ridiculous valuations. hood was 100 times sales, losing a ton of money when it came out. of course it will get dumped. when most of the people on there are trading meme stocks and crypto. something like that not interested but find me companies that are doubling, tripling, quadrupling their businesses and earnings, have people around the corner waiting for products and services that is such strong demand i will show you the big winners. i'm all over it on a daily basis. every day i'm looking for what stock is up 15% today on 500% volume because they came out with earnings that blew away
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estimates. those are the things i'm going to be watching for. i can tell you as of this second, there ain't nothing. so i'm kicking back and relaxing. >> we'll leave it there. shaw, gary, thank you both very much. >> thanks, charles. charles: coming up gen-z stepping up in this market despite the first time to gary's point dealing with these kind of things. should invest with to sort of uncertainty in the air. markets with the friday rally. volatility a new thing for this market. how do you deal with that? also how to be a sucker, not to be a sucker? what about a bounce on its own and we'll go to chart school next. ♪. with my hectic life, you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions, and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. voya helps me feel like i got it all under control.
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♪. charles: there is a lot of charts making the rounds. they're all sort of cautionary tales, saying hey, don't try to pick the bottom now. some go way back in time to the great depression, you had big pockets of bull market rally inside of a secular bear market that took years before we broke even. more recent examples avoiding being a sucker came through the
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global financial crisis meltdown. i will show you this. this is our chart going back to 2007 through 2009. there were five bear market bounces. you can see them here, pretty good bounces here for the market. hold on, i'm sorry. so we have five of them. anywhere between 7% and 20 4% were made on the upside upside if you bought them for big bounces you still would have been down. this whole move, 57%, that is how much you would have lost trying to pick the bottom. what the experts are saying don't do it, don't pick the bottom! here is the problem. at one point we hit a bottom in march of 2009. if you bought let's say here, you broke even. say you bought here. here you broke even. say you were really a sucker, down 57%. at some point you broke even. guess what? you were off to the races. this is what is all about. it is really tough to understand when to start to put your money to work.
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we try to bring you charts to use to help us out here. i have had a lot of guests on to discuss this. a lot of chartists are not really clear with me. one of my favorites, thrasher analytics, andrew thrasher. andrew, i talk about buying on upside. they keep blowing me off. is there levels you want to start getting back in this market? >> i want to get back in the market when we get less bad data. see your 2007 to 2009 chart, raise you the nasdaq from 2002 when the market dropped nine times, nine counter rallies over 15%. some were 40% rallies. you can have huge, huge countertrends in a long term downtrend. will that be what we see today? i don't know. but they could be ugly as you were discussing. charles: talk about another thing, you're talking fundamentals as well, right? technical part, also the quality of the names. back then we know the names on the nasdaq, there wasn't a lot
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of quality. there were some good names and some awful names. >> right. charles: right now the trailing pe dropped from 36 to 16 points on the s&p 500. the forward p-e has dropped from 23 to 17 and the speed, what i want to talk about is the speed of it, andrew. we have come down, this is the fastest pullback, draw down forward p-e for s&p 500 in 15 years. does that suggest we're oversold? look at other times it happened because we had pretty good bounces? >> we did. i'm a purebred technician. when you're talking p-e ratios all i hear is p and price. 16% of stocks are down 20%. we started flirting with that level with the broad index. most of the market been down, well past that level. that is where you're seeing a driverss overvalued growth names are pummeled down 70, 80, 90%.
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that put a lot of pressure on rate of change for the p/e. what i'm focused on is the p, we're seeing a lot of p, a prices down significantly worse than the broad market. what is driving, what i talk about on your show the big four. big four in the market are driving things. we saw last week they were making lower lows. the broad market, average stock was not. but it is really hard for the market to digest when tesla drops 8% or apple drops 4:00% that is hard for the market to digest. charles: to that point, we live by the sword, we die by the sword, they carried us for so long. >> right. charles: 30 seconds, quickly most important chart or most important thing we need to know right now? >> equities get a lot of attention. look at futures markets. we're starting, there is some interesting setups and pressures. metals, lumber, is absolutely hated now. sentiment towards lumber is extremely low. i think there are opportunities there to look at.
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there is bull market somewhere. you have to look hard enough. some names invested and involved in those commodities look interesting right now. that is where our attention is. charles: andrew, always appreciate it. love the conversations with you, so us did the audience. thank you very much. see you real soon. all right, folks, health officials claiming monkeypox threat not the same as cove keefe but we're getting a lot of chatter about this. i want to know more. we're bringing in dr. jenette after the break. for many young investors. this is the first bear market. how should you stay positive and also stay smart? don't go away. ♪
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bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities.™ throughout history i've observed markets shaped by the intentional and unforeseeable. for investors who can navigate this landscape, leveraging gold, a strategic and sustainable asset... the path is gilded with the potential for rich returns. charles: it has been a tough year for investors of all
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stripes, right? now all eyes are on younger investors or those who entered the market in 2020. wall street says the investors have to blink, take heavier losses, realize losses bite the bullet. i think wall street is underestimating the resolve of investors. we have etoro investment analyst calely cox. this allocation survey that comes out every week. it is interesting because it remains elevated. rebounded a little bit. put that in the same chart as consumer sentiment, something has to give. they used to trade in tandem. i know etoro does its own surveys. you had your own in march. why are retail investors staying in there, why are they hanging in there even though wall street keeps say they have to you know, bite the bullet? >> first i agree with you, charles. i think we're underestimating retail investors here and i do want to know that the aaii survey data was pretty bearish up until a few weeks ago.
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investors have not been exactly naive about this drop. retail investors have a longer time frame naturally. we're seeing a younger investment base out there. naturally younger investors have higher risk appetites. they have been shown to flood into stocks and crypto. i wouldn't rule them out just yet. millenials are coming into their economic power. these younger investors might not have as much cash on hand but might have more resolve than anything. charles: here's the thing, historically, buy low, buy low, sell high. you know, people listened to that their whole lives. they're saying why should i sell here at the low, particularly to your point if they're younger investors so isn't history on their side? >> yeah, i will add too, they are more educated than ever. they lived through the great financial crisis and bull market after that. history is on their side more than ever. stocks went through every crisis they have been through, and there are constantly
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communicating, champing huddle, not for bad cause, right? that seems to work out if you have time on your side and that's the big if. luckily retail investors most do have time on their side. charles: what is your thought on recession? are we in a recession? do you see that impacting this market? >> yeah, so there are warning signs. i'm certainly not going to step out here and say growth looks decent. growth is slowing. i want to warn everybody, slowing growth doesn't exactly equal a recession. we have reasons to feel optimistic too. company earnings are coming in fine. companies are reinvesting in their businesses. you know i think it really really depends on the fed now. we're watching fed closely. especially if they slip into recessionary narrative to see if they change their and we could see markets back off. charles: what would do that? a benign cpi print or something like that or relatively benign?
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>> that is a good question. i mean it is all relative, right? that is a really good question. i think the signs are already there and i think even if the fed hint as little bit of the fact inflation may have peaked, just some progress there may be enough signs for the market to take back on financial conditions. charles: let me ask about the, fed released economic well being fourth quarter. 12% of adults held crypto or used it. 99% holding it as an investment, actually have a bank account. this suggests to me people are really looking at this as a legitimate, authentic, long-term investment. what percentage of, do you see now buying the dip? >> yeah. that is another really good question. obviously we work for a brokerage or i work for a brokerage that offers crypto. so we have a bit of a bias. in the survey we ran in march, 90% of investors ages 18 to 34 were planning on investing more money into crypto the next 12
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months. charles: wow. >> we think here especially with bitcoin at these levels, ethereum at these levels, we could see investors buy buy the. certainly institutional investors are going out to do that. we ask customers to remember the utility to crypto. i don't want to say flight to quality, because i think that is wrong for the crypto space. there are cryptos with utility with them and you have to be very distinguished kind of looking through which cryptos to invest in. charles: 12,000 of them. we get what you're saying. go with ethereum, go with bitcoin. putting words in your mouth only because we have to wrap here, more importantly, 90 percent looking to buy the dip. that is what i call diamond hands. thank you. >> thanks for having me. charles: cover health of market or consumer spending but what about the health of society in general? joining me now fox medical contributor dr. jenette nesheiwat. doc, president biden said we should all be concerned about
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monkeypox but i've spoken to a couple of very smart folks in the last couple days they're telling me, in your industry, they're saying it is not as much of a t threat but then you siebl gum saying we have a 21-day isolation period. i don't know. on the heels of covid i'm a little anxious about this. >> it is important to be informed and to be aware but i agree with those professionals. i wouldn't panic right now. preparation and prevention is ideal. the reason why they want to do the 21-day incubation or isolation period, because it takes five to 21 days for the symptoms to appear potentially. sometimes you see it within the first few days. charles: right. >> we do know, charles in europe there were a couple of parties where this could have been the base all this outbreak first formed. charles: ground zero kind of thing? >> you got it. in men -- charles: how contagious is it? >> it is not very contagious but it can spread. we're seeing between the ages of
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20 and 50 of younger men anyone can catch it. you can catch it from respiratory track, large respiratory droplets. if someone snieses has to enter eyes and bought. open wounds on skin. skin contact, bodily fluids, is a live have, could spread that way. not easily spread. i don't think it's a huge risk to the public right now. charles: on friday morning, i saw world health organization emergency, and monkeypox, all in the same sentence i got nervous because the world health organization part of it scared me more than anything else. i don't want them anymore involved in our lives than they have in the past. let me ask you about the baby formula crisis. the white house posted a tweet, showing pallets, 70,000 baby formula, i think they came from germany, 70,000-pounds, initially said tons but it was pounds. they took a victory lap.
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how long is this going to last. >> that was premature celebration. this is national crisis. the shelves are still empty. this will feed 17,000 babies no more than a week. we need a long-term solution. we can't wait another week, another few days, we need babies to have vitamins, nutrients they need. critical nutrient, like in tennessee, north carolina, babies are being hospitalized for malnutrition. they dropped the ball. they need to come up with a long-term solution. reopen abbott safely, allow for individual imports. push the defense production act to get more formula on the shelves. charles: maybe we could somehow encourage more manufacturing here. we should ever have to go through this again. >> should never have happened. it is upsetting to see what happened with omicron over holidays. we were unprepared. but our government had enough notice to predict and anticipate the needs of our children. so this should never have happened in the first place. charles: speaking of omicron, china is just, beijing now,
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making moves. there might be a case or two. all they need is one or two cases. does this reflect how stringent they were in the beginning? by the way america applauded how great they were doing, how poorly we were doing. i don't sense any natural immunity. we've been able to get natural immunity in this country. i think it is serving us well? >> i think what they're doing now is sort of backwards. we learned lockdowns actually made things worse medically and economically. so i think it's completely unnecessary, these extreme draconian measures they're taking for a few hundred cases? we have vaccines. we have natural immunity. you combine that together, you have hybrid immunity. we have anti-virals. it is really overkill at this point. i think it will have negative impact in the long-term, not medically, physically but also mentally. charles: dr. nesheiwat, too long. thank you. ecb christine lagarde saying crypto is worthless although she
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wants to regulate it. okay. jim bianco coming on. deglobalization. is this beginning of the end for big business? we'll be right back. ♪ everyone remembers the moment they heard, “you have cancer.” how their world stopped... ...and when they found a way to face it. for some,... ...this is where their keytruda story begins. keytruda—a breakthrough immunotherapy that may treat certain cancers. one of those cancers is advanced melanoma,
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monarch mining is fully funded and poised to become canada's next great gold producer, with four high grade projects close to their 100% owned, 750 tonnes per day capacity mill. monarch mining. ♪. charles: president biden sent the white house staff into a tizzy again with his comments about u.s. military intervention to defend taiwan from an attack from china. the cleanup team has gotten a whole lot of practice. they moved in pretty quick. biden hinted that the white house is ready to remove some of president trump's tariffs. that was music to wall street'sers ears, they love that, fatter profit margins. it is a conundrum. we watched europe pour billions of dollars into putin's war
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machine. they had no choice. having to buy gas and natural gas. and spending billions of dollars to rebuild ukraine. we have the benefit of watching this. will we go deeper into our reliance on china even as we pledge to go to war with them at some point? think about that for a moment? will we torpedo our own fossil fuel miracle to rely on solar panels and equipment from china to cede effectiveness to north korea and beijing? we have jim bianco. there are a huge spike of companies saying onshoring is happening, deglobalization has begun. i want your thoughts on that? >> first of all you're absolutely right, wall street does not like tariffs. you can remove them. you just get fatter profit margins. that is music to their ears as you said. as far as the onshoring thing goes a bit of a mixed bag. a lot of people are talking
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about onshoring. some companies are moving towards it but there is deep skepticism this will be actually a thing long term on wall street because the belief is, you can onshore all you want but the cheapest source of whatever product you're talking about is still going to be asia, most likely china. so there is going to be that push-pull between national security and reliance on supply chains versus cheap products. charles: yeah. >> this is a new conversation. we haven't had that conversation before but right now wall street still thinks the cheap product thing is going to win out. charles: there is no doubt about that. i say okay, let's add in, i don't know how many billions we've already sent to ukraine, say ultimately we have to chip in for trillion dollars to rebuild ukraine. fast forward 10 years from now, 15 years from now, maybe we spend five trillion to rebuild taiwan after we lost thousands of soldiers and american lives. someone has to be forward thinking on all of this, maybe smaller margins now will save us from a lot of heartbreak, lost
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lives and treasure in the future? let me ask you about this, i saw you tweeted about this, i think it is really intriguing, and it goes hand in hand, larry summers about the war, essentially a war against big business adding to inflationary pressures. there is no doubt about that these large businesses have the leverage but should we be rooting now for big businesses? >> you know, it is, it is a difficult question to answer because we should be thinking about reshoring. we should be thinking about security. but, that is easy to say when companies have to meet quarterly numbers. when they have to meet yearly numbers and their pressures are constantly on to produce now, now, now, not being able to think about the big picture and when you talk about giving companies incentives to reduce, yeah, they're reliance on asia and reshoring security it just gets called corporate welfare and that has got a dirty name as well too. i understand all of the
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arguments for it and i wouldn't be against some kind of a movement towards reshoring but the fact of the matter no one is going to voluntarily do it because it means higher costs right away. there has to be incentive. while we all talk about it, i don't see anybody showing up with incentives right now. charles: to your point if target's stock can get smacked 25% in one day for missing one quarterly earnings report, no one will want to risk that over and over again. i got to get your thoughts on lagarde saying crypto is worthless, it is worth nothing but it should be regulated. i know someone like you takes a really smart approach to bitcoin in particular but this whole defy, decentralized revolution. they keep coming at you. they keep saying this thing is worthless and they keep attacking it. >> if it is worthless it doesn't need regulation, it is just made up monopoly money, which one is it, it matters or doesn't
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matter. when the price was down, there was a dark day with the failure of the terra blockchain, the real colors come out they are worried about this type of decentralized finance revolution. makes people like the ecb, federal reserve, fdic less important because you could replace banks in some instances with a computer algorithm that runs automatically. so i can understand their fears but, i got to say, this is not going to go away. jackie: charles: yeah. >> it is too entrenched, it is too global. it is going to become a thing. now it may take longer because what happened last couple weeks, there may be dark days ahead but that is the way all new technology is and this is going to be no different. charles: me think christine lagarde protests too much. with you there, jim. love our conversations. talk to you real soon i hope. meanwhile, folks, earnings season is winding down. there are companies out there
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reporting, some big ones. you warrant to know should you buy, sell or hold? guess who is here? danielle shay, she made you a lot of money last time she was on the show. move over barbell approach, we have a new investing buzzword, quality, quality. what the heck does it mean? we're finally going to get an answer, next. ♪. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates,
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charles: market bottom guessing game becomes more intense every day, right? this morning mike wilson of morgan stanley saying the firm's clients are bearish, not optimistic about a quick bounce. think actually believe the market will bottom at 3400, then go to the target of 3900 within 12 months this matches a survey of equity specialists see another 10% hit to the market. wilson has gotten a lot of fanfare for his bearish calls this year. i tell you my next guest laid out the premise before most and i think before he did. we have edge wealth ceo, cameron
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dawson. the latest work, you point out seven things. cameron, you've been spot on. i gave awe hard time. you've been spot on. i want to i have about you props for that. overall feelings on the market the way it is acting for the last several sessions? >> we have to get used to the volatility. we can certainly see bounces from here that is normal and quite common but the challenge we have, we don't have makeup to enter into a new bull market run, the kind of unflinching bull market that looks a lot like 2019 or 2021. if we see the bounces what do you do in that scenario. we think if you see that quality names rebound a lot that is opportunity to reduce positions get a little dry powder, redeploy for things we like for the long term. charles: you mentioned high quality before. one of my buzzwords. last year it was barbell
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approach. i never knew what that meant. be honest last year i thought it was a copout. this year a lot of people are saying quality. microsoft is down a lot. apple is down a lot. amazon is down a lot. are they note quality stocks? >> they are quality but you can't have quality without valuation discipline. that is what we learned this year, if you went into this year with a really high multiple, even if you did have things -- charles: quality are great names but low valuations? >> not low valuations necessarily. we're not trying to dumpster dive and buy cheapest names. charles: okay. -- was $74. 74 p-e ratio. it has been around couple 150 years. the company will always be here, would that be quality in your mind, that ratio, trading at that level? >> i don't think we can answer the quality question just looking at the valuation. we also have to look at the balance sheet and cash generation. >> i got you. >> that is really important because as we go later in the cycle and liquidity tightens you do not want to own companies
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that want to go out to the debt market to raise really expensive debt to keep the lights on. you want companies that generate a lot of cash and don't have extended balance sheets that can be a stablizer when economic uncertainty picks up. charles: so capitulation, classic capitulation, are you looking for that? that one day where we're down a gazillion points and everybody sells, billions of shares trade hands? or could you charge that its rolling like we're in the midst of it? >> you and i have been looking for capitulation the last two months and we really haven't seen the classic signs of true flush. a lot of things we look at are elevated yes but they're not at extreems. the thing is, for all the bearish sentiment out there equity allocations still remain near all-time highs. look at aaii equity allocations, they're 70%. charles: we did that earlier in the show as a matter of fact. interesting, no bell went off in march of 2009. i don't remember there being a session, okay, that was classic
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capitulation. i found a lot of people missed the subsequent rally or subsequent rebound. so you're positioning yourself in equities but just rotating. what are you looking at? >> what is more attractive here? >> comes back to the quality but when we think about the capitulation, when to start buying -- charles: is there sector or names you can give me as an example. >> it is not just within one sector. not saying we'll focus on names in energy sector for example, because they're lead we need to look intrasector. charles: got you. >> we need screens make sure we're not buying companies that are over eggs tended, don't have good earnings momentum, is not generating cash t has to be a different approach buy all consumer discretionary because we start a new cycle. >> i love that. that is essentially a serious stock-pickers market, more than normal, right? we're going teacher and deeper to make sure these names weather the storm? >> much more so. you see much more dispersion
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within sectors. a lot more winners and losers. that is what want when the liquidity tide goes out. we see who is swimming out the proverbial shorts. charles: warren buffett. congratulations on the new gig. congratulations, you've been killing it. great year for you. my next guest has been right and very, very bold. she made a lot of money for people on the show, simpler trading danielle shay. you're also we're not in the pain threshold camp. what you are looking for? what is the ultimate capitulation for you? >> you know, charles, i agree with your previous guest. i've been waiting for capitulation. i would like to see the vix up above 40. want to see a couple limit down days. want to see people saying hey, you know what? they're bailing on everything. i think one reason why we haven't gotten that, it wasn't that long ago, where the market crashed in march of 2020. everything was fine after the fact. so i think that investors are still holding out hope that we could bounce again. i would like to see capitulation but it is not here.
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charles: megacap names, they finally started to take a pretty good hit here. what is your thoughts on them? you mean, listen, we paid a heavy price for them going down. we rode the coattails all the way up. any of them in the buy range yet? >> you know, charles, as a long term investor you have to start picking up shares here. we've gotten through may seasonality. gotten through a variety of different landmines, including earnings. you have to stick with some best megacaps, microsoft, apple. i want to pick up some amazon, even costco, that being said. i still think we could have more downside in the market this is an averaging in approach as long-term investor. charles: not a sense of urgency. not sensing the train is not leaving the station just yet. you have a webinar coming out shorting canaries in the coal mine. sound intriguing. i don't want to give away your whole webinar but just one thing you're looking at? >> right now you have to focus
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on trading this market. there is so much volatility. when you look at the long-term portfolio and little bit soft at moment, what you need to focus on is need to focus on identifying those canaries in the coal mine which are the soft stocks, ones that roll over and die first, trading those to the downside. additionally if you have any of them in your long-term portfolio you have to cut those lose. charles: it is tough. i agree 1000 percent. if you have cash, at least you can put it to work. i say the worst thing in the world to have the same mistake hurt you twice. everyone makes mistake but hold something a avoidable mistake. 30 seconds, zoom after the close, nvidia later this week. would you be playing those to the downside? >> i'm going to short zoom, charles. that is an earnings destruction candidate. also snow as well. i will hold nvidia. i like the stock, but hey, you never know in this kind of earnings environment. charles: you've been crushing it, that's for sure. danielle, thank you very much appreciate it. folks, we'll be right back.
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charles: well, it's nostalgia time. first i want you to take a look at this the last phone booth in new york city was removed today and i have to admit a serious tingle of nostalgia thinking about all of the times i used a pay phone back in the day was almost always for emergencies so first i think about my mom, that old manhattan phone book and how thick it was and i also think of
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the old slang, remember that i'm going to drop a dime, well, folks, it is the end of an era. the last pay phone and then we had the fed today confirming we had a lot of money and it wasn't that long ago. in fact a big part of today's session rally came on the release of that survey of household economics and decision-making from the federal reserve, it's a quarterly report and very backward-looking however it does support the notion the economy was strong as heck, like, you know, a lot and a lot of people believe it supports a theory now we've got enough money left to muscle through the inflation battle but let's not forget just how much pressure this market has been under, because of rapid moves in inflation. last week it crushed the biggest retailers in this country, walmart, target, amazon has been crushing, in fact according to ed yardeni, the average household will spend $5,000 in gasoline up from the $3,800 estimate in march and $2,800 just a year ago. the bottom line, yeah, it's nostalgia, folks we had a whole lot of money but it is being
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eaten away by high inflation and what's left is holding it near and dear, so we'll see. two things to remember, liz claman, the pay phones and how rich we used to be. liz: yeah. charles: welcome back. liz: yeah, well you know what? rich is a state of mind, isn't it? charles: true, that's what the they tell me. liz: that's what dolly partonon says one is only poor if one chooses to be. look at me i'm quoting dolly parton. we are just getting this breaking news, sources are telling fox business that airbnb is shuttering its chinese homes that it offers on its website. how are, however, as we've learned from sources doubling down on china outbound, meaning chinese tourists are traveling from china to destinations around the world and therefore, airbnb, according to sources telling fox business, they will be welcoming and embracing that particular part of the business, shares are up a quarter of a percent after having dipped

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