tv The Claman Countdown FOX Business September 16, 2022 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
took 130 hours in 1989120 hours just every month to pay your mortgage so maybe just maybe your parents didn't have it so much easier than you. there's good news, 52% of adults living with their parents say it's a very positive or somewhat positive experience. so, you know me i'm always finding a silver lining. just like this cp effect we're coming back, liz. liz: i was just thinking about my parents, charles, and how hard they worked. i mean, we work hard too, but -- charles: nowhere near close to them and they don't even go to the grandparents forget about it liz: oh, yeah i walked uphill 1e from school. both ways to and from charles remember the odd fedex ad, when it absolutely positively has to be there overnight? well, you could say fedex is absolutely, positively what triggered the broad based sell-off pretty firmly in play as we kickoff the final hour of trade though look at the dow down 187 and the s&p down 35.
they both nearly cut their losses in half, but let's pull apart the s&p right now. s&p which closed yesterday at 3,901 could not hold the line. it gapped down to 3,880 right at the open you can see on the intraday picture here and right now, i guess it hit a low of about 3,837, right now, we're at 3,865. yeah, the ugly open for all the majors happened before the opening bell, sparked by fedex. with this loss of about 21.5% for fdx, that is the worst percentage drop in company history. here is what happened. the package shipper plummeting, taking out all kinds of floors after blindsiding analysts last night and investors with a very messy quarterly report. fedex wiffed on revenue and earnings per share you could drive a truck through that miss. analysts expected earnings of $ 5.14. fedex came in at $3.44 but perhaps way more worrisome, a
serious warning that company says worldwide shipping demand suddenly started eroding at the end of last quarter, so much so that fedex has pulled current quarter guidance and says it will resort to major cost cutting. the ripple effects, folks, far- reaching. dow jones transports which included fedex, which include fedex, right? gut-punched this hour down 756 points, actually off the lows of the session, but the percentage loss 5.5%, you know, the railroads are in this too as well as a lot of logistics companies but look at fedex rival ups, along with trucking and freight logistics companies, yellow and xpo. plummeting here, we've got yellow down 10.6%, xpo logistics losing 5%, ups down about 4.8% but the aftershocks don't even stop there. amazon now ships more packages than fedex does, and could surpass ups this year, so if fedex is experiencing a customer slowdown the market is telegraph
ing that amazon maybe experiencing the same thing by selling off amazon down about 2.5% right now. look at boeing more than 80% of fedex's fleet of planes made by boeing. as fedex says it'll slash flight frequency, boeing shares are grounded down about 3.7% off the slows of the session hit just after 10 a.m. eastern. resting still though at the bottom of the do jones industrial so such a wide spectrum can get swamped by one stock warning, how do you still successfully invest? let's bring in satiri funds dan niles with the s&p down 19% year-to-date. the private fund is not only beating the s&p his fund is positive year-to-date and dan, are you positive today on a day like this? >> [laughter] well, we're losing a little bit today, but we're still up nicely for the year. liz: we'll get to the trades that helped log gains for the year during what's been a very challenging 2022 but
first, how are you viewing and how should investors view the fedex news? >> well, if you go back in time , back in the 2000s, alan greenspan was the chairman of the federal reserve. he used to say he would talk to the fedex ceo i think it was fred smith at the time on a weekly basis, because he thought that they were such a great representation of what was going on economically worldwide because they had such far- reaching view into that and so it's was called the fedex indicator and so you should look at today and there was an interview yesterday for about 10 minutes with the fedex ceo and if you listen to that interview you go wow, things are really bad because what he basically said was since the june 29 analyst day, every single week, business got worse and it got worse in asia, it got worse in europe, and it got worse in the u.s.. liz: but dan, that pivot, and i want to say walmart and target a couple of months ago experienced
the same thing where suddenly, things got a lot uglier, to what do you attribute that pivot? fedex basically said watch out we have the european supply chain problem. i mean look at and then sure enough you want to talk about the ripple effect look at general electric stock. ge is getting pulled down because of all of this and i do believe their cfo had come out yesterday and said we still have supply chain issues that are hitting our aerospace division, not to mention our healthcare parts, we still are having trouble getting. >> well i think you have to look at this very big picture. there's an old saying on wall street of don't fight the fed and usually that's used in a positive manner and what you have to remember is the fed went through an unprecedented expansion of their balance sheet last year, and that's what enabled the market to go up in the middle of a global pandemic, right? the first thing you think when you're thinking of the entire world getting shutdown is not to run out and buy stocks but what happens is the fed flooded the world with money, government s flooded the world
with money, and so the markets went up because people went out and bought meme stocks, boats, cars, homes, and some people bought the s&p 500 stocks. now what you're seeing is that, you can get away with that right up until there's inflation, and now we've got the worst inflation in 40 years which the fed ignored for a good portion of the year, so now there's stock having to raise rates rapidly to drive up unemployment to get down inflation, and so there's a time component of this , and that's what the part everybody is missing because over the last 13 years, every downturn has been shallow, because there's been no inflation. now, with 40-year highs, you're just going to keep raising rates , leave them higher, and it's going to take in my opinion , until the middle on the s&p 5. liz: let's tackle the fed, becaus meeting and
announces exactly how much it is tightening rates once again. a) what are you preparing another 75 basis points hike by jerome powell & company or now we're starting to, especially after the fedex situation, we're seeing a retrenchment pulling back just a bit from that 1% interest rate hike that the market had been anticipating last week bias much as the odds of 40%, i believe at the moment fed funds futures because what we do is get this for our viewer s right up to the second. 14% probability of a 100 basis point hike. and again it's 100% of at least 75 basis points. what are you expecting? >> yeah, i've always been expecting 75 but i also think the terminal rates so where they take it to, so right now they are at 2.5%, you're going to get 75 basis points next week, that's going to take it to 3.25% but what investors should be thinking about is that rate probably goes up to 4% to 5%.
it's not going to stop as early as everyone wants, but one simple reason is that people bring up oh, used car prices are coming down or gasoline, but what you have to remember is the u.s. economy is 75% services -based so the biggest component of that is wages, and if you look at wages, you have over 11 million job openings, about 6 million unemployed, so that ratio is about 1.9 times. the prior record is 1.25, so it's going to take a massive spike and layoffs to get that down to control inflation and then rents is 30- 40% of inflation and that's going to follow home prices with a one year lag so that's going to continue to the middle of next year. liz: i began this introduction with you by saying that as the s&p and i'd like to get everybody the very up-to-date and up to the moment numbers here. s&p is down 18.7% year-to-date. not only have you and your sator
i fund, which is private, i should add, not only are you beating the s&p. you're actually up. how are you doing that? what trades did you put into place and are you still looking at in place that have enabled you to do so well during as what we said is a very challenging year. >> so you have to remember, we came into this year saying publicly that we thought the market be down at least 20% from peak-to-trough and then in may we changed that to we thought it be down 30-50, so if that's what you're thinking, you have to assume every stock you buy is going to be down, but you have to remember, we're a hedge fund. so for us, we maybe long walmart which we are, but we are short a whole bunch of other retailers against that, and so if walmart is down less than everything we're short, then we make money, and that goes for tech stocks, everything in our portfolio. so in some ways i hate to mention things that i'm long because people go oh, i've got
to rush out and buy that. no in a market where the s&p is down 30-50 if you're long something you better be short something against it, so that's one of the things we've done. the second is we've carried a high amount of cash and for retail viewer that can't manage their portfolio daily, because this is all we do, right this is my full time job. you should just sit in cash, wait for the fed to stop raising rates before you think we're anywhere near the bottom. liz: you're also long oil, copper, and are those oil and copper stocks or is it the actual physical commodity itself? >> we're long names that equities, so stocks, that they derive their revenues from that, so that's what we typically get involved with. so it's the big energy companies in the world, the big copper companies, uranium is another one, coal is another one, and so those will be the names we get involved with but remember if you go to a global recession
those come down as well but our belief is -- liz: less so. >> less so because you under invested for over a decade. in addition to that you have the u.s. government and every government around the world saying oil is dirty. coal is dirty, et cetera, so there's no investment in that space, so you should see prices holdup better than for other sectors where you are adding capacity. liz: dan, macro, again. just goldman sachs saying that there's another 27% possibility drop for the s&p 500 if the inflation hawks are correct. do you agree with that number? do you have a different number? >> so as i said earlier, liz, our single point number is $200 in eps on the s&p for next year. you put a 15 multiple on that, which is generous given where inflation is. you end up with 3,000 on the s&p s&p today is around 3,900 let's say. liz: 3,867. >> yeah, but you know, you could easily see it go down
closer to 50% from peak-to- trough to get to a level that makes sense, so we still are sticking with down 30-50 but the time is what's important here, which is i think that's going to take through middle of next year because the rate hikes you're seeing today will affect the real estate market over the next six months to a year. it's going to affect borrowing costs over a period of time, and that's the thing people need to remember. the feds nowhere near done. liz: can i just clarify you said down 30-50 you mean 3,050? >> down 30% to 50% from its peak in early january. liz: and we are nowhere near or certainly haven't breached the june lows for the s&p, i believe or the nasdaq, correct? can i just ask you, as we finish up here, on a day like this are you buying the bruising at all of the markets? >> you know, unfortunately, the markets not oversold, so for
us, my twitter handle is@ danieltniles. we'll post when we think the market is technically over sold. we're not there. we're not even at the june lows so for us we think there's a good shot before this sell-off is done. you get near those levels, you may get a short-lived bounce because people are like the fed raised by 75 basis points, and now it's the peak, and you'll get these rallies as i call them or bear market rallies but ultimately, that 3,600 and change range with the s&p bottom you're going to go to 3,000. you're going to undercut that by a severe amount, fundamentals are terrible, multiples are coming down, you don't want to fight the fed. you don't want to fight the fundamentals, and that's kind of our thing. liz: dan inles saying unfortunately the market is still not oversold. if you're long something make sure you are short something else in the same sector. good to have you, dan. thank you very much. >> my pleasure, liz, thank you.
liz: dan niles. will a global recession ding sales of the brand new iphone which hit stores today? apple ceo tim cook heading to new york's flagship apple store on fifth avenue. check this out, to check the sales out for himself. but as the apple faithful chair on the launch day for the iphone 14, wall street is boo'ing apple now replacing tesla as the most-heavily short ed stock. with the closing bell ringing in just over 45 minutes and the dow down 180 we're going to take you live to the fifth avenue apple store next, to get a read from customers. that when the "clayman countdown" returns after this quick break.
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liz: apple's brand new iphone, the 14, officially launched today. eager iphone users desended upon apple stores around the world, waiting in long lines to get their hands-on the brand new mobile device, but look at this. the apple faithful in new york city got a surprise visit from ceo tim cook who showed up to kickoff the new smartphone launch at apple's iconic fifth avenue store, and susan li was right there for it. she's been gauging sales on the iphone 14's big day. susan? reporter: yeah, so liz, this is a consumer sentiment indicator because throughout the entire day here, at the cube, which is a fifth avenue apple store, attracts more visitors by the way than the statue of liberty, you see steady lineups here and we've been speaking to some of these apple fans who have been here since last night waiting in line, hoping to get their hands-on the new
iphone 14 lineup, which by the way isn't cheap. especially in these inflationary times, since we know the iphone 14 base model starts at $799. also of course we had tim cook, apple ceo, in-person with the executive team here to open the doors to the apple fifth avenue store and this is by the way the first year in three, since covid that all covid restrictions have been lifted so there might be some pent-up demand. now we spoke to a few of these fans that were eager to get their hands and be the first to get their hands-on the iphone 14 and we asked them why they are spending right now. >> i hope that the price is pretty consistent with what it is now. in europe, the price increase. >> it's more or less the same price as the one you had before. it's okay. it could be cheaper, but -- >> apple has so many loyal customers i feel like they continue to attract people, especially with the way they do their launch events. reporter: yup, and i have to tell you that morgan stanley, barclays, jpmorgan, they all say that iphone 14 orders have been
stronger than anticipated. 80 to 90% of the traffic and orders so far have been for the pros, the largest screen s, and the bionic chips and you mentioned apple being the most shorted stock on the market right now liz but that's because a market cap is bigger than every other company listed here in the u.s.. back to you. liz: well yeah, but i mean, tesla for a long time has been the most shorted stock, even when it didn't have as big a market cap as it has right now, and it just makes me wonder, susan. are those shorts going to get really squeezed? we had dan niles , i'm sorry dan ives of wedbush just a week or two ago and he was saying exactly what your customers that you interviewed just said, susan , which was the fact that they didn't raise the price will make it very attractive to more people. reporter: and dan ives says he expectses 90 million of these handsets to ship before the holiday period, or over the holiday period.
that sounds pretty bullish so from what i've seen and spoken to a lot of the apple fans out here, they are eager to start buying, regardless of the high inflationary environment. liz: i'm just looking, susan, thank you. i'm just looking at the apple intraday i don't know if we can put this up. apple at the lows of the session , $148 per share, we're backup to about $151 a share and by the way, we are at the session highs right now, even though we're still down just about eight-tenths of a percent so a little bit of a comeback here with about 38 minutes left to trade. apple's product launch today, coinsides with this. it is just 100 days before christmas. don't get mad at me for telling you that. fedex already played grinch but as inflation hits wallets and a global recession maybe looming we're going to go live to the port of bayone, new jersey where containers are already arriving filled with the stuff headed for
retailers, but with consumer s so cautious, will those get to make it under consumers christmas trees? closing bell ringing in just as i said 38 minutes we've got the dow now down 137 low of the session a loss of 411. s&p down just under 1% or 28 points and the nasdaq down 108, russel losing 34 points or 1.9% there's your percentage loss leader. we're coming right back and charlie gasparino as well. (vo) while you may not be closing on a business deal while taking your mother and daughter on a once-in-a-lifetime adventure — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your dreams, and the way you care for those you love. so you can live your life. that's life well planned.
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liz: fox business alert, markets are staging a bit of a comeback at this hour. the dow was down bias much as 411 points, now we have cut those losses pretty much in half uber, let's get to that. backup and operating at this hour after the ride hailing company proactively shutdown some of its systems in the wake of a hack attack. shares down about 3.5% off the lows of the session, after the company said a hacker had gained control of its internal system via the company's slack account. in one slack message the hacker wrote, "i announce i am a hacker , and uber has suffered a data breach." who does that? is that weird? uber is saying within the last hour, that the security breach
did not involve access to sensitive user data, but it is also continuing to investigate. adobe, well, it is losing another 4.25% today, which means shares of the digital media software company have lost nearly 25% this week alone. investors outright rejecting adobe's $20 billion acquisition of software design platform figm a. adobe plummeted 17% yesterday once the deal was announced. bmo capital has cut price targets on adobe and bank of america cut its rating to neutral from buy saying the fig ma deal will be an over hang, until the acquisition proves itself to be profitable. can we look at ncr, because it is not a pretty picture. this is sort of like twinning federal express here down 21%. right now after the provider of automated teller machines, announced it's going to split into two companies rather than sell itself.
after the split, one company is going to focus on digital commerce while the other will focus on atm's, and ncr says tough financing markets cut its efforts to find a buyer even though it did come close with several private equity firms that kicked the tires before deciding nope and walking away. and nordstrom down 18% year-to-date is actually higher by 2% right now, after mexican high end department store chain liverpool acquired a 9.9% passive stake. the high end retailer, one bright spot where you see much of the retail sector selling off , and by the way, while we're on the subject of retailers and shopping, might not feel like christmas is around the corner, but it is officially 100 days until santa packs up his sleigh and hopefully heads to your home and target, walmart, amazon, they are already letting parents know exactly which toys are hot and which ones they should quickly get their hands-on. their annual best toys and games
lists range from the classic bar but playhouses and crayola crayon kits to a virtual reality headset, and the popular cards against humanity game. isn't that pleasant? card against humanity but as a mentality already setting in with inflation at four-decade highs? and throw in a lot of recession fears on that? madison alworth live at the port of bayone, new jersey. madison let's talk about what you're seeing and the activity you see on the ground. reporter: liz, we've had activity at the port here all day long and that is a good sign that the health of the port is strong. normally 100 days out you'd be seeing all these holiday gifts and items coming off off ships but big box retailers learned last year we exposed supply chain vulnerabilities instead of waiting until the 100 days out mark, ships like behind me have been shipping in christmas goods really since early summer. ocean freight is currently in a much more stable position. take a listen.
>> this could be good news for the shoppers, inventory levels are high, shipping costs have dropped all the way from $20,000 to $4,000, and so though there's a lot of inflation in the economy, the fact that retailers have inventory to get rid of, the fact that shipping costs are down may actually help to keep prices in check during the holiday season. reporter: but inflation is already in the shopping environment, even with these better rates. it's top of mind going into this holiday shopping season, to deal with it. 41% of shoppers are seeking discounts and 27% are already shopping to spread out their spend and to try to take advantage of early deals, even with the deals though americans are expecting to take on debt in order to put gifts under the tree this year. like you mentioned we're seeing some of the major retailers put out gift lists to help those family. walmart has a list that includes gifts under $25. that kind of tells a story about the consumer this time of year.
last year we had problems with the supply chain. this year supply chain is good, getting those supplies, is the challenge. liz? liz: okay. well, my list is easy. chocolate. madison thank you very much. madison alworth i know 100 days until christmas. where did the time go? plenty going on in crypto world today as ethererum's long- awaited merge did reach the finish line, so why all the red? what is going on with cryptos? the biden administration putting out a frame work regulating digital assets and is looking at a potential digital dollar. we're going to break it all down with the ceo of high blockchain the company used to be the biggest publicly traded min er of ether. he showed up, by the way, to his first retail job in new york city, in his dad's pick-up truck , filled with the few possessions he had and just about no money to his name. today, he leads one of the most lucrative clothing companies in
the nation. hear how land's end ceo jerome griffith went from farmland in pennsylvania to being the first in his family to go to college and then to where he stands today. his story is my latest everyone talks to liz podcast episode. it's going to inspire you and he will explain how he did it coming from where he came from. it's available on apple, google, spotify, anywhere you get your podcast. i hope you listen, because it's the weekend. you're driving somewhere right? listen to "everyone talks to li" closing bell ringing in 26 minutes dow is still struggling down about 208 points. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help.
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just had its kind of mini super bowl, known as the merge, plus there's fresh clarity today around regulation which is something that crypto world has been asking for. so what is that? well the white house released its first-ever digital asset framework designed to make transactions easier, protect investors crypto wallets, and establish the u.s. as a global crypto leader. that's good, right? well the white house also moving one step closer to developing a seperate bank digital currency, known as the digital dollar. all of this as yeah, the merge just happened. that means ethererum successfully completed its merge yesterday basically putting ethererum on to a more energy- efficient proof of stake mechanism versus proof of work mechanism for validating transactions. joining me now in a fox business exclusive, blockchain executive chairman and u.s. global investor ceo and cio, frank holmes. okay, why is crypto down when is
this sort of a sell on the merge news? >> well, i think as a sell on the merge and i think that the government did a brilliant job of stealing the show. we had presentations in front of the senate. we had a paper come out of the white house, and we had janet yellen making statements and that seemed to capture a lot of the news flow. you look at twitter and linkedin , et cetera, and the statements and then there was lots over how much energy is going to save. you know, liz, when i look at ethererum, because we were a substantial miners of ethererum, there is like over 30 million gamers around the world that turn on their computers when they go to bed and they try to mine one or two ethererum coins a year, and that's how they upgraded their computer systems. i had a paper route as a kid. they were doing ethererum mining , but it's deminimis on how much electricity they are
really consuming. they are continuously using their gaming and same thing with a lot of other computer graphics so i don't think there's such a big drop in the energy consumption or proof of going to proof of stake and what this really appears to be and the concern is proof of security , because the sec believes that a lot of these tokens and other instruments are really securities and i have to, i agree with them, so bitcoin is not a security, it's a digital asset because of proof of work. when you go to proof of stake, then it becomes a proof of a security, and that's where the big uncertainty is coming from. liz: and we were hoping to get more clarity from the government. i mean they've had several months to come up with a roadmap here. what did you glean from it? what does it mean for people who not necessarily are the crypto accolades people who already love it but those out there, maybe some watching who say, you know, i want to dip my toe into the crypto waters a digital currency waters but i just need
to know that i'm not going to somehow watch my money disappear >> well, i agree, and i think it's really tragic that what they call shadow banking evolved with celsius and voyager and then they went to their own little crypto metaverse and reached out to investors and promised higher yields, but they were basically shadow banks with no regulations and they have all imploded and that's hurt people and i think that it's necessary for the government to go after anything with a string around and any entity, that is making rates as promised as a lot of these companies were doing. we were pushed to try to put up our coins, and to earn a yield and i said no, because the counterparty risk was too great. liz: good call. >> we need clarity here on regulations. there's no doubt and i'm a big supporter of the sec and what they're doing, but i do think the white house has to get a better paper than what they
circulated because it's really not pure-to-pure, it's not a scientific piece of paper. it's by an employee with a central bank of holland, and you got to think of that person's writing and citing this person for a lot of, which i would say, is disinformation and not scientific. liz: well, frank, you know i do have to ask, because we've got the fed meeting next wednesday, and wasn't currency, cryptocurrency supposed to protector be some type of separate asset class that would somehow be a contrarian investment during very difficult times for equities? who knows? it just feels like on tuesday, when the whole market was tank ing, so did bitcoin, and then of course, we haven't seen really strong moves for quite sometime. how should this asset class be viewed? >> there's no delta. the bulk of the coins are out there are securities, in my
opinion, because the bulk of them that traded have gone through the proof of stake but they are all going to follow like silver follows gold and the whole thesis of gold as being a great hedge against inflation, and the same thing with bitcoin. so i think that the alternative asset classes, and that's what you have to look at and as you go to a new industry, a new group, there's just going to be much greater volatility and that's what bitcoin is, and bitcoin mining stocks are just like you see gold stocks will move with the price of gold and bitcoin mining stocks and ethererum mining stocks are going to move in particular with the direction, by the hour, with bitcoin. liz: well, your stock is up about 40%, quarter to date. we'll be watching all of that. its been a rough go for all of the names in these spaces. come back again, frank, thank you. >> thank you. liz: well, efforts to regulate crypto are underway.
is the securities and exchange commission chief gary gensler going on a hiring spree ahead of the mid-terms and how should investors interpret that? charlie gasparino breaks it next plus, a wrap up of the trading week as the bears dig in their clues ahead of next week's federal reserve meeting. closing bell we're about 14 minutes away. dow is down 152. all right we're continuing to try and scratch our way back to the flatline. with my hectic life you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. voya helps me feel like i've got it all under control. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪ ♪
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liz: as companies from silicon valley, the wall street freeze hiring, the top cop is in hiring mode. the agency is anticipating a heavy amount of congressional oversight if the republicans take the house in november. charlie: my producer spoke with someone who served in the general counsel's office in the obama years. here is what he said. gary gemsler will get a thermonuclear beating if the gop takes congress.
i think this sums it up. the gop congress, if they get the banging committee plans to do oversight on the agenda. genser is ramping up hiring. he's trying to get people -- liz: anticipating. we don't know. why is he at the hire now. >> these committees control the budget. if republicans get congress they will try to put a hold on the sec. corp ration esg disclosures, crypto crackdown. it will be pretty interesting.
this is a moving story. we did talk to the sec and asked for a comment. per spokesman, our hiring based on the mission and need for the sec has remained pretty constant, which is a non-denial denial. one of the ways we know they are ramping up hiring is they are advertising. one interesting thing that elliott came across is there is a weird side office he kree. office -- he created inside the es correct. it's and i enforcement division inside the enforcement division. it's like some weird star chamber thing he created that was not there when jay clayton was there. it's like an expansion of the
sec that no one knows about. it's unclear exactly what they are other than maybe a super loyal union of the sec to gary genseer. if the republicans get congress they will say what the hell is this thing and who are these people. we are getting none of that. under the democrats he's allowed to do what he wants. i know you have him on this show occasionally. maybe you should ask him about this little star chamber story on the side. liz: he's always welcome on your show. >> no. no, you are not. charlie: you have had weird people on this show. liz: like world wrestling? we are coming up on our 15th
anniversary. charlie: remember -- liz: i interviewed lamb chop. gerri willis' lamb chop. closing bell, we are about five minutes away. the nasdaq down 1%, on track to finish 50% lower. the worst week for the tech heavy index since january. not over yet, according to famed wall street investor dan niles. >> unfortunately the market is not oversold. my twitter handle will post. we are not there. we are not even at the june lows. liz: he says by the time all is
said and done, 30% to 50% off the january number. liz: joining us now, howard capital manager. and fitzgerald group bridge keith fitzgerald. i believe we are in the fourth losing week out of five. are you look at this whole picture saying the bulls have left the building entirely? >> we are clearly in a down trend. to fight the market in a down trend is the way to lose money fast. we are sitting in 40% cash. we have 86% of our cash in our bond fund, we are bearish on the bonds. but the volatility is extreme. fedex, a 22% drop in one day.
that's pretty rough. that was a tell on fedex that the economy is slowing down. fedex's numbers were pretty weak. liz: i like what you said, i'll ask you in a second what i want to ask keith fitzgerald now. the trade, keith. do you start dipping and buying in a bruising session like today. >> i think you do both. the key to success is offense even if you have to play defense to do that. we have been going off the chevrons and the big tech we know will be there 5, 10 years out. but to my colleague's point, these are very dicey markets. always sit in scene exit row.
>> what's your exit row. >> my exit row is do i have an absolute today it laying. the fact that we are catching today. they know they have got to be in the game. liz: you just said you like dan niles are in a left cash. what will you be looking for that tells you to put money into where you are waiting? and where is that. we have some of your picks on the screen. these are all etfs, and then the healthcare sector. >> as long as the trend is down we'll stay heavy in cash until the trend changes back up.
i am trading etfs, not individual stocks. they are a broader base investment. they don't have the whip saw like fedex. even if i come out with good news but it's not the news they expected, tough a broad-based dividend paying etf, i think it's a better way to trade right now. liz: we talked about etfs yesterday that are able to change without getting swamped. keith, your number one pick is chevron. you don't want to take any money off the table? >> we have been taking profits and redeploying it. you don't get off a winning horse in the middle of a race.
liz: it's so good to have both of you. thank you so much on a very rough day. it ends up looking a little bit better than we expected. folks, we are closing down on the week. it looks like the nasdaq will be down 5%. but the transports down 8% on the week. that will do it for us. "kudlow" is next. [♪♪] larry: hello, folks, welcome toll "kudlow." i'm larry kudlow. as we said many times on this show. americans are smarter than joe biden thinks they are. no matter how many displays of cognitive dissidence or falsehoods, or outright lies i don't like to apply to presidents, americans see right through it. you can't tell the public there is no in
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