tv Barrons Roundtable FOX Business September 25, 2022 11:30am-12:00pm EDT
china around how they deal with taiwan, and finally a president says, look, if you mess with taiwan, we'll respond. gerry: it used to be called strategic ambiguity. that's it for this week, i'm afraid. thanks to byron york and richard fowler. i'll be back next week here on the "wall street journal" at large are. thanks very much for >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by global x etfs. jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. richard gelfand on new releases and how artificial intelligence will improve your moviegoing experience. will the impact of new technology on healthcare industry, major developments in the search for alzheimer's treatment.
three things investors should be thinking about right now, stocks slammed after the fed lifted rates another 3 quarter percentage points, there was a new for the year. bond yields as good as they will get and may be time to buy. gold not so much. interest rates rising, junk bonds are looking more attractive. is it too early to jump in? been levisohn, carleton english and jack hough. we've been debating whether the june lows were the law of the market, you were skeptical, that was not the low. >> it was not the low. had a new low, even flirted with bear market. the other two indexes are very close. the market, the fed keeps
finding ways to raise rates 3 quarters of a point. rates are going higher and anyone thought it wasn't just the us, others are raising rates, other problems with places like the uk undermining that, lowering taxes which contradicts what they are trying to do. energy stocks, 6% on friday. i would not be surprised if we get another set. ibly15 how low can we go? ben: the market trading 15 times earnings, then it comes down to where earnings are, if they fall 10% the market, the s&p will be above 3000, dropping 20%, looking at 2730 but if it drops 30% we are
looking at s&p at 2400 and that is a big drop. jack: that is based on 15 times those earnings, if we see earnings fall that far it could be worse. ben: true. jack: what can james do? ben: not much. there is not too many earnings next week. we are not getting much data. we will get the third reading on second-quarter gdp and august pcp, it will take a couple more weeks before we get it. jack: stock market wasn't doing very well. that did not look at 2022, you say the yields are high enough. jack: it might be time to buy long-term treasuries. i want to give you a specific trading idea from the chief
economist who says to buy tlt and short goal, the ticker for the i share of the treasury bond. you get higher yield on shorter treasuries, people call that an inverted yield curve but you want longer exposure, high interest rate sensitivity and no way this economy will handle the interest rates suggested if you look at what is happening with inflation or what is happening with the economy, and those bonds will prove a good deal. the gold side is more complicated. it has been terrible historically. i am not sure it is possible with the mad max doomsday crowd now that they've gone over to crypto but more inverse with bond yields that have risen a lot, gold hasn't fallen like it
should. you need to see yields come down or gold could crash by more than half, treasuries, the short gold works, my hedge is if it doesn't work, i know that well. jack: and then the bitcoin will be -- you have a contrarian play. andrew bary says they are looking at junk-bonds. carleton: you are getting an appropriate level of risk. part of the reason is during the pandemic a lot of companies took advantage of low interest rates in their balance sheets and put out maturities. take advantage of the situation at the time, you're getting yields for 8% but not taking on as much risk necessarily. jack: one way to get exposure is to buy a simple index.
what if you want active management which sounds like a good idea? carleton: look at the colombia high-yield bond index, and the high-yield corporate index. jack: american airlines, that sounds crazy. carleton: it is backed by their mileage plan of all things. jack: americans got used to streaming movies at home but major blockbus it's beautiful. ♪ you ready babe? “everywhere” by fleetwood mac
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great to see you in the flesh. glad you are here. >> first time i have been in a studio since the pandemic. really amazing to be back. jack: a good transition to your business, the movie business, all about blockbusters. when we spoke virtually, you predicted top gun would exceed high expectations, there is momentum, imax doing better than your other non-imax theaters, you have the remake of the black panther sequel, the avatar sequel, is that enough to keep the momentum going? >> we are not a different exhibitor, we are different business model. we are in 89 countries, for the first half of the year where everyone is reporting, imax was 90% of the box office in 2019 which is a record year.
exhibitors were 64%. we really mostly come out of it but it is really blockbusters that drive us and the fourth quarter blockbusters look really good, you never know until people buy the tickets. but i am feeling we are through the other side of this thing. >> a technology that leads to the streaming experience, explain why you did that. >> imax is about being the best. are key features we do things for filmmakers that are part of the ecosystem, a lot of the power of the imax brand, what this company has done and has done well doing it and has clients like disney, paramount and comcast -- jack: the purchase was
thursday. >> on thursday. what it does is figure out how to optimize the image of any device, so if you had a phone, and you are watching us that doesn't have to be high resolution but if you are watching a chris nolan movie on a 100 inch tv you want that to look great. what this technology does, figures out what device you are on, what looking good means and how to assemble the compression and transmission so it saves money for streamers and most importantly for the directors, make sure the consumer gets the best vision. jack: streaming is challenging to your business and covid made it work, i want to ask about the movie industry, the owner
of regal cinemas, give us a prediction for the movie industry, whatever the new normal looks like will it be the same as the old normal? >> i don't think it will be the same as the old normal, there will be less screens, a lot of mid-level content will go to streaming instead of theatrical and theaters will increasingly have to be premium to attract audiences. i gave statistics how imax is doing well, we provide an experience you can't get in the home. changes in the industry are like wind at our backlick give us momentum, market share has gone up not only in the us but around the world. people are used to being on their couches and so used to watching episodic tv in a streaming format. when they want a special event, they want to see something they couldn't otherwise get and imax fills that bill.
we were talking about top gun, when you watch that movie it is totally different than regular cinema, the wings are cut off, the heads are cut off. this is not only seeing the whole thing but feeling you are in that fighter jet with tom cruise and the public gets that more. they have had enough streaming, they want to get off their couches and do something special. jack: and other thing is china. you have a big business. in rough numbers 800 screens out of 1700 worldwide. recently, i doubt many i have whole have heard of the movie moon man. >> my favorite movie. jack: the highest grossing film in the first couple months of august. much stricter covid lockdown and china is not a great place to do business.
how does the future of your business look in that country? >> we are in a time when there are rolling lockdowns. it won't last forever, the last couple months, there haven't been a lot of movies released. the election is in mid october and once we get through the election period the number of movies released will go up, the number of movies imported will go up, we believe they will loosen restrictions on foreign films and -- jack: one more question. wall street. is wall street missing something about imax with stock down 38%. >> the street is missing that we are not a north american exhibitor. we are not in north america, one third of our revenues come from north america. we are not an exhibitor.
we have no net debt, 500 million in liquidity, we are a technology licensing company. we don't own the brick-and-mortar. we license our technology to exhibitors around the world and increasingly, we are going to other technology adjacent fields. that's the big one. they look at thus and say they have leases, landlords, no, no, we are a technology company. jack: and maybe someday you will be priced like one. new technologies and artificial intelligence are changing of the healthcare ind i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this.
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jack: innovative technologies and artificial intelligence bringing new hope to therapeutic drugs and treatments and the way they are delivered. "barron's roundtable" investors examine what is ahead in this week's cover story. tell us about this cover story. four well respected investors, i find it interesting they said innovation is not only coming in the new drugs but the way all healthcare is delivered. carleton: it is interesting. innovation, littered throughout the article, the big theme from this panel, definitely would not want to call the end of the pandemic but the fact that covid was not top of mind for our panelists. what they are focusing on is what is possible and treatments for weight loss or cardiac illnesses, innovation in those spaces but one thing the pandemic taught us was difficulty in accessing healthcare or delivery of it whether it was getting supplies or having appointments.
that is something a lot of these investors are excited to be exploring. jack: the incredible speed with which multiple firms developed covid vaccines, that same technology might help us solve other problems in the future. carleton: that is where a lot of excitement is coming from as one of our investors put it, you basically realize if you can use this messenger rna, vaccine on the spike protein that could have applications for several other diseases, the fact that the speed of that could happen, bringing drugs to market at a faster pace and there's always the regular tory concerns with that sort of thing but creating a potentially viable medicine is a huge one. jack: who is not sick of getting handed the clipboard and filling out that information 10,000 times, apple and amazon tiptoeing into healthcare, will that change this? >> it is welcomed they are making the move. a lot of people are not worried
about their entry. the fact that you are having that progress, really we are feeling terrible and wanting to do anything else, having may be greater efficiency whether it is record-keeping or ease of access, amazon acquisition of one medical or apple diagnostics and things like that where people can monitor their health and be more proactive with it. jack: short clipboards is what you're saying. there is a lot of news coming out on all liners and it is not necessarily good news. ben: we have three studies of all liners treatments the phase 3 trials in the first one as early as this coming week. this is, final test for the beta amyloid hypothesis, this idea you get plaque on the brain and if you can remove that plaque, you can slow down the loss of cognition the comes
with alzheimer's. there has already been one drug that came out from this that proved by the fda even though it didn't seem to work all that well, got rid of the plaque but didn't slow the loss of cognition that much so you have three others that are coming and they might not show much improvement over the other one so a final test for this science that has been working for the past 25 years to see if this could be a cure for alzheimer's. if it doesn't work there are other treatments coming but still a ways off. jack: i will ask about the drug takes. what are we watching? jack: we are watching bio jen. they bet a lot on alzheimer's and also eli lilly. this is not as important so even if the trial doesn't go well they have enough things going on like obesity drug they have that could boost the stock in the future. jack: three pics from the story that caught your eye? jack: lily is favorably
mentioned and three more in an active extreme generosity. boston scientific make medical equipment, pacemakers, spinal cords, scopes, patients pool of electric procedures during the pandemic and going back including for routine tests, turned 50 a couple weeks ago. i understand become more fill you with the scopes from the portfolio soon. growth is strong, united health one of our panelists because that one of the best positioned healthcare services companies in the world, that and technology going down and it cells and finally this hugely profitable drug called humira which will face competition next year. it is 12 times next year's earnings but there are other drugs and growth will pick up after that. jack: thank you for that, we couldn't leave the segment without hitting that point. it may feel like the world is going craz ♪ my relationship with my
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jack: feels like everything is nuts from politics to inflation to capital markets but when it comes to capital markets we are careening toward normal. jack: a year ago crypto was worth more than the money supply of the uk. there was an nft nonfungible token conference, he was playing guitar to raise awareness for holographic worm. that was weird. this is normal. what they are talking about shows the fed funds rate going about 4.5% next year. the average fund rate since 1954, 4.6%. 30 mortgage rates spiked up 6.
3% of the average 30 year mortgage rate since 1971, seven. 8%, we spent a decade talking about how 0 rates made asset prices cruelly, stocks have come down, bonds too and if you make money, 60-40 portfolio with 0 locations, don't know if the underpants cowboy is singing about that but it is good news. jack: free money was the weird thing and that is over. let's go to actual ideas. carleton: going to apache, people of getting it in, the trading action, energy stocks selloff sharply, our colleague likes it. transit discount appears, can definitely make that up and has solid earnings growth protected as well. jack: maybe gas prices come down this weekend as well. what is your idea? ben: the stock looks to have doubled, supporting 50. may be some support around 45
if it breaks that going to 40, earnings guidance is weighted to the fourth quarter this year and if recession is coming and things are looking as bad as it does that might be it. jack: i remember when molson was fancy. great ideas from everybody. to read more checkout this week's addition of qualcomm one.com, follo dr. michael youssef: when the romans came, they destroyed jerusalem and destroyed the temple. and those in the judean region were in danger, immediate danger. our lord jesus christ told them they need to run-- go up to the mountain. he was warning the disciples about these two events. the disciples said, "when is that gonna happen? and what are the signs of your return?" male announcer: up next on "leading the way."