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tv   The O Reilly Factor  FOX News  April 19, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm PDT

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♪ ♪ ♪ hi, i'm bill o'reilly. thanks for watching us tonight. the polls here in new york close in about an hour. martha maccallum will join us with exit polling in a few moments. so we will get some insight on the primary vote. but, first, the talking points memo. is the supreme court compromised? is it really looking out for you? they are the ultimate power in america. justices on the high court and what they say goes, 9/11 matters of life and death. hello row v. wade. the supreme court has one major limitation, however, it cannot make law from scratch. it can only uphold or strike
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down what congress and state legislatures have already passed. enter president obama who is trying to redefine immigration law by ordering a quasiam mess city for about 4 million illegal aliens. thus, by signing an executive order, here the pen, bing. the president is changing federal immigration law. something that on paper only congress has the power to do. so, led by texas, 26 states have sued the federal government saying the president has exceeded his authority under the constitution. yesterday, the supreme court heard arguments in the case. sadly, it is a forgone conclusion that the four liberal judges on the court will decide the issue based on their own political beliefs. not what the constitution says. this has been a pattern of behavior for decades. here's the proof. listen to this. the solicitor general of
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texas, scott heller, argued in court, quote: congress has to grant the statutory authority first for the president to be able to act. but the very liberal justice sonia sotomayor replied those nearly 11 million unauthorized aliens are here in the shadows. they are affecting the economy whether we want them to or not. the answer is if congress really wanted them not to have an economic impact, it would allot the amount of money necessary to deport them. but it hasn't. while that may or may not be true, so what? justice sotomayor is not supposed to be concerned about forging policy for this nation. she does not have oversight over what congress should do. her job is to rule on established law, not create it. talking points urges all americans to figure this
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out. we now have a supreme court that is activists, political, not unbiased. and devoted to protecting the balance of power vital to a free society. we don't have that. there is no question that sotomayor, ginsburg, kagan and brar will rule in favor of president obama because they like his view on illegal immigration. even if it goes against the well-defined separations of power. and that is flat out dangerous. or am i wrong? and that's the memo. we have more on this with lou dobbs a bit later on. top story tonight as promoted. the primary vote here in new york where the polls close shortly. with us fox news anchor martha mccallum who has been looking at the exit polling. we will do it different here. usually you come on and tell me but i'm going to tell you. i looked at some of the data. >> good. >> we have a really good
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political operation here. it's very strong. here's what i'm taking and then you tell me whether i'm right or wrong and why. okay? number one, trump wins. >> well, we don't know yet. i mean. >> the indications are? >> the indications are that it's a good night for trump. we knew that basically. >> i know you can't say he wins because the polls are still own. >> we are bound -- when gets closer. other thing to keep in mind is that the polls in new york state don't even open until noon. major later shift than we normally have. based upon the. >> based upon early exit polling o'reilly biggest mouth in the world is going to say trump is going to win. >> yeah. >> however, it may not be as big as the trump campaign wanted. >> you may be right about that. not doing as well as you might expect. in fact, it looks like his weakest area is new york city, interestingly enough. the center of his business and where he lives is not the place where he appears to be doing very well. he does appear to be doing very well in the areas we
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have seen him do well in the past. long island. >> long island he looks strong. >> long island looks big. >> >> exit polling here in new york city the city of 8 million plus is good for john kasich, i saw, right? kasich? >> you have more moderate republicans that work and live in new york city. it's highly educated part of new york state. they tend to go toward kasich. kasich was in second in the polls going in. it's highly possible that he could do well. the thing we don't know is whether or not kasich or cruz or trump, how the delegate mix is going to wind up. >> nobody knows that. >> we probably won't know that until tomorrow morning. >> we want to remind everybody, you probably know this. if donald trump gets more than 50% of the vote. he automatically gets 14 did he goes on top and then congressional district by congressional district. on the democratic side, all right, i noticed that in the exit polling, minorities huge for hillary clinton. and a lot of minority votes in the democratic precincts. >> absolutely. she continues to do well in the bronx, areas like that where there is larger
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hispanic and black vote. it looks like staten island. >> bernie. >> bernie does better in some of the more strong white areas which he has done as we have seen throughout the course of this. one of the interesting things that you have heard bernie talk so much about wall street, flight that message is permeating and getting through. astonishing to me the numbers of people who hate wall street. so this anti-wall street rhetoric has really seeped in. when you look at republicans. 51% say that wall street hurts the u.s. economy. 51%. >> 51% of republicans. >> democrats, that number is at 64%. >> wow. >> believe that wall street, which is one of the strongest industries of this city, right? hurt. >> greed heads. a lot of it has to do with the mortgage backed securities. >> absolutely it does. we all know that the federal government was a large player in that but they are blaming wall street today. >> one of the new questions that was asked. >> now you can answer. this i'm done spouting off. what was the most interesting thing you, you know, looking into this exit
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polling that jumped out that's not obvious. >> i think in a way the newre fd trump. this is -- he feels that this is his city. but it imidz divides up. goes to the issue hough donald trump's base is fascinating that this wealthy man. this very successful man does he have well with middle class voters. because they feel like he is their kind of successful man. he speaks to them, perhaps, more strongly, certainly than a mitt romney did who was, you know, kind of beaten up by voters for being too wealthy. that doesn't cut the same way with donald trump as it does. >> that's because trump is more of a populist than romney was. >> absolutely. >> is he a straight talker. >> gets away with wealth without being punished for it. >> wealth isn't really what he is selling. romney wasn't either. romney was motorcycle toast in the way how he campaigned. that became who he was. who trump is this bomb thrower who is going to change everything. i think the polling showed that if you want big change, the breaking big for trump. >> outsider, outsider,
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outsider continues to be the big theme here tonight. >> martha maccallum will be around 9:00 when we go to the coverage. >> new numbers too. >> i think we will have the election up at 9:00. senate minority leader is convinced donald trump will not win on the first ballot at the convention. take a hard lock at that later, gutfeld and mcguirk on some americans trying to get the bible out of public libraries. how dare they up ahead.
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real is touching a ray. amazing is moving like one. real is making new friends. amazing is getting this close. real is an animal rescue. amazing is over twenty-seven thousand of them. there is only one place where real and amazing live. seaworld. real. amazing campaign 2016 segment tonight, if donald trump and hillary clinton win big here in new york this evening, the last crucial test comes in california. now, we believe mrs. clinton already has the nomination locked but donald trump may be another story. joining us from chicago, tom bevin from real clear politics and here in new york city philip bump reporting for the "the washington post." what do you think mcconnell went out and said that he doesn't think trump is going to get it on the first
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round? >> i think that the republican establishment is trying to set the expectation that this thing could be a contested convention. they need to -- there is a poll that just came out nbc "wall street journal" said six out of 10 republicans think whoever comes in with the most votes should be the nominee. if this thing goes to a contested convention, if donald trump doesn't have the delegates he needs. the republican establishment needs to set the expectation this is a thing that could happen. >> this is a normal thing. it's not going to be a catastrophe. >> right. >> it's just part of the system. >> so they are already starting now. do you concur with that mr. bevin? >> i do. just shows what a mess the republicans have on their hand. mitch mcconnell despises ted cruz. he certainly wants to get to a fresh face scenario to protect his majority. still mentioned that "wall street journal" poll. you were talking with martha about the exit polls. 7 in 10 republicans in new york think save they think the person with the most votes should win. just imagine in that number holds true across this, if republicans come out of the
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convention without donald trump as the nominee and he has won the most votes. they will be a very divided party. >> and what about the wisdom or lack thereof, mr. bevin, of the republicans saying, lock, if trump -- donald trump is our nominee, we lose the risk of losing everything, senate, house, total collapse, like reagan, mondale. we're going to get wiped out. but if we go to cruz or someone else, we have a chance to save the house and senate. now, that may be unfair to donald trump. i mean, nobody knows how is he going to conduct himself in a general election. but, do you believe that sentiment has taken root in washington? >> oh, absolutely it has. the polling data right now that we have reflects that but i don't necessarily buy into that conventional wisdom. donald trump he is unpredictable. he scrambles the map in ways that i think nobody can predict, right? his strongest asset in a general election is working class white men.
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that's hillary clinton's biggest weakness. it could have him winning states like pennsylvania. which republicans haven't won in a number of cycles. and perhaps even losing states that republicans haven't lost in a while like georgia or some place out west like arizona. i think we don't know how donald trump will perform in the general election. >> it's all conjecture and we don't like to do that here. isn't it true, mr. bump that more men than women vote in america. >> yeah. >> the women are the majority of people going and then you add to that the coalition of minorities who, according to the polls, don't like the republican party and really don't like donald trump and senator cruz. so it looks that the republican party, do you concur that it's a mess, that they have just like don't know what to do? >> yeah. i mean, it's very clear they don't know what to do. that's been made very clear. this is going to be a tough election cycle no matter what happens. hillary clinton, who i think you are right will probably be the nominee for the democrat. she is not a strong candidate. she has very high
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unfavorable. candidates on the republican slide are likely to be someone who is not very popular and also has weaknesses. going to be a tough election because of the item grasks at play. we saw how they shifted in 2008 and 2000 12. odds are good the shift will continue. >> let me stop you though. the people, -- the minorities were really motivated to vote for barack obama. really motivated, okay? >> they are not going to be motivated for hillary clinton that much. maybe i'm wrong. but i don't see that surge there. >> well, i think it depends first of all who she is running against earlier. secondarily, the electorate in 2014 was as diverse as the electorate in 2008. that's something people don't realize during the off year when the republicans crushed it, it was still the same percentage nonwhite voters that it was in 2008. >> there wasn't as many going out for the off year election than the presidential election. mr. bevin, what about the minority vote? donald trump, when he comes in here, i asked him about it. point blank, look, don't worry about it. i'm going to get them, because i'm going to bring
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this jobs, and i'm going to make it easier for them to prosper. and they are going to buy into my message. i don't have any concerns about it at all. could that be true? could the minority vote, you know what? i want somebody new. i want somebody who is going to create jobs. >> it's tough to say, bill. i mean, he does have very high negatives. he has said some things that have alienated members of the minority community, certainly. but, on the other hand, there are some aspects to his candidacy. again, this is the year of the outsider for republicans and for democrats. donald trump is certainly an outsider. if he is running against hillary clinton. she is the an tis sis of outsider. she is epitome of establishment. that will work against her in a general election. i think will cross racial boundaries as well. >> here is interesting thing. exit polling we just discussed with miss martha shows that minorities in new york broke big for hillary clinton. tonight. all right? and if hillary clinton does wind up winning new york, which i believe she will, it will be because of that vote.
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the minority vote. because bernie sanders is winning with white men on on ---are they motivated. is the minority community as motivated now as it was when barack obama was on the ticket? that's to you, mr. bevins. >> sure. this is the sort of lasting question is barack obama's coalition, was it unique to him or is it durable and transferable to hillary clinton? we don't know the answer. right now she is doing well in primaries with minority voters. the missing piece for her right now is the youth vote which bernie is winning overwhelmingly. are they going to turn out with the same intensity in november? we don't know. we have to wait and see. >> all right, gentlemen. thank you very much. we appreciate it major corporations pulling away from the republican convention. why? and then lou dobbs on a new poll about building a wall on the mexican border. it may shock you, this poll.
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those reports after these messages. ♪ i love ya, tomorrow in the largest heart failure study ever. entresto helped more people stay alive and out of the hospital than a leading heart failure medicine. women who are pregnant must not take entresto. it can cause harm or death to an unborn baby. don't take entresto with an ace inhibitor or aliskiren. if you've had angioedema while taking an ace or arb medicine, don't take entresto. the most serious side effects are angioedema, low blood pressure... ...kidney problems, or high potassium in your blood. ♪ tomorrow, tomorrow i love ya, tomorrow.♪ ask your heart doctor about entresto. and help make tomorrow possible. ♪ you're only a day away ♪
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impact segment tonight. four years ago in tampa, florida, coca cola spent $660,000 at the g.o.p. convention there. this year, coke says it will spend 75,000. wal-mart might not spend anything. even though the company has in the past. same thing with apple and google. joining us from boston mary ann marsh and here in new york city andrea tantaros. why do you think they are cutting back. >> a lot of companies are fearful that donald trump will be the nominee and getting pressure from activists and cutting back on donations. what's happening is a lot of these corporations are saying if they are cutting back on the right, we can't give money to democrats and
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not give money to republicans. so democrats are having the same problem, bill. right now the dnc is expecting to spend 84 million on convention. it's only raised 40. so the republican party is interesting trouble getting corporate sponsors but so are democrats. this is not a problem for a donald trump. this is a problem for a reince priebus, for the party. he has got to go into the coffers. >> mary mary anne, do you see that? if you are going to be bailing out of the republican convention you can't spend big in the democratic convention. customers favoring republicans wouldn't buy your stuff, right? >> right. most corporations try to be bipartisan in convention efforts. if they're not going to spend money in the republican convention or only provide services and not provide other six figure checks that go to underwrite all the expenses they probably won't do it on the democratic side either. what's so interesting here is, bill, the risk-reward calculation that many of these companies seem to be making. they find it riskier to go and support the republican
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convention but they find no risk or little risk in opposing the transgender legislation in north carolina. they have pulled out of businesses there. and threatened north carolina and costs millions of dollars and cost the governor 6 points down to his democratic challenger. interesting comparison when you look at what they think is risky for their business versus what's not right now. >> one state out of 50 isn't a national campaign what you have is uncertainty in the republican candidates. we all know hillary clinton is going to win because the democratic party fixed it as bernie would say. >> she earned it. >> you say she earned it. super delegates are not beholden to anyone and they are going to go with the conventional choice which is not bernie sanders. >> to be fair, bill. she has 2.5 million more votes on bernie sanders. she would win it just on the pledged delegates not to the super delegates to be fair. >> don't you believe that's
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a tie when nobody even knew who bernie sanders was six months ago to run 2 million votes behind her? i mean, it's embarrassing. but let's -- >> -- no. he has a good message. >> i know his message is things are great in havana. uncertainty -- talk about that donald trump may go in. doesn't get the nomination outward even though he may go in leading in the delegates but he might not have enough, he will blow it up. he will blow it up. not riots, i don't believe there are going to be riots but i think there is -- if he doesn't get it and he thinks he is being denied it, it's going to get nasty this there. macy's pulled all his ties out of there because of what he said about mexicans. >> working behind the scenes to threaten corporations. >> a number of female activists. african-american activists they are threatening if you give money as a corporation to a convention with a trump
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nominee, we are going to pressure. >> you do you know what groups are doing this? is it black lives matter? is it move-on? who is doing this. >> a number of them. a number of them. look at this, bill. dnc getting same blow back. duke energy not going to you. wal-mart saying not going to give money to the convention. who gave that quote? lobbyist. who is lobbyist dan bartlett. who did dan bartlett used to work for president bush the establishment. feeling the heat from corporate lobbyists establishment. one last brass trying to flex their muscles saying we are not going to give money to a convention. what would trump care? >> wal-mart, wouldn't like trump anyway because trump is hammering them for making stuff overseas. >> think about this. that's a problem too for democrats because corporations as i said before aren't going to give money to either. here's the difference. donald trump is rich. he can say i don't take corporate money. they are not coming to my convention. hillary clinton, she is taking, what, an upwards of
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couple hundred thousand dollars ahead. clooney fundraisers. she is the one bottom and paid for. this about corporations hurts debby wasserman schultz and the clintons the most. >> i think it's more complicated than that i think the problem especially with the republican convention and for many of these corporations you have heard such incendiary rhetoric throughout this campaign thus far and it's only april that a lot of companies say we wouldn't allow that kind of talk in the workplace. a lot of their employees look at them and if they are going to write big 6-million-dollar checks for convention where candidates have been divisive and dismissive of employees. employees look at the company and say are you endorsing that candidate? i don't want that. >> it reflects bagged on the company and fear boycotts as well. >> i may have to go to both conventions and calm everything down. the voice of reason. >> awesome. >> all right, ladies. thank you. a quick footnote andrea has
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a nau new book coming out called "tied up in knots." plenty more as the factor moves along this evening. but the feld and mcguirk. big outrage that some want to prevent public libraries from having the bible in the building. but, next, lou dobbs on new border wall poll that may surprise you. we hope you stay tuned for those reports. ♪ i don't want to live with the uncertainties of hep c.
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personal story segment tent. was we told you in the talking points memo the issue of illegal immigration very intense in the u.s.a. pew survey asks if americans favor border wall. overall 62% say no to the wall. 34% support it. republicans 63% yes to the wall. 33% oppose. democrats a whopping 84% opposed to the wall. 13% want it. with us now fox business anchor lou dobbs. these numbers surprise me. do they surprise you. >> they do. the opposition, if we look beyond these top line numbers as you suggest republican supporting border security and democrats favoring wide open borders. surprise to me adamant position. when we see a real public about it see the numbers shift. >> depends when the debate is right now i think the number is probably lower than 62% opposed to the wall.
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i would say it's probably 55% to 45%. the organizations the way they word the questions. here is the bottom line on the wall. the wall would save thousands of lives. maybe millions of lives because it would prevent the coyotes, these are the human people smugglers who rape, who beat these people up, sometimes kill them. poor mying migrants trying to get in there saves horrors for the migrants themselves and then the drug trafficking. >> which no one wants to talk about. >> i do. >> and so do i. >> tons of narcotics coming across that border. with the wall, that would stop 80% of it. when people say it wouldn't, you just go to israel. israel built the wall between them and the palestinian authority and it works. >> you can go to saying. the smugglers put up a wall. that wall worked. everything moved.
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i don't know if that's the test. >> do you buy into the wall to save millions of lives. >> i absolutely do. >> that's hard to sell it? >> to me irresponsible and immoral not to stop the drugs you are talking about. think about this. and i know you know the numbers. we are talking about the majority of methamphetamines, marijuana, cocaine and heroin come across that border into the united states. >> that's correct. >> and destroy those millions of lives. >> controlled by the cartels and they use the profits to corrupt the entire country of mexico. >> do you find it interesting, bill that that two former presidents of mexico darking trump stopping. they won't talk about stopping the cartel that drives the traffic of both human smuggling and narcotics. >> they are afraid. they are scared to death. the cartels are really the power in mexico. you are a big trump supporter, right? >> i'm going to vote for
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trump. >> yeah. >> i don't think -- >> you are a jersey voter so you can't vote tonight. >> i'm a jersey voter. >> i believe that trump if he is elected will build the wall. he will have to build the wall and he will build it. mexico is not going to pay for the wall. they are not he may start a trade war on them impose tariffs or back their trucks up to guatemala. he would do that. >> i wouldn't estimate. >> i wouldn't under estimate the possibilities is what i'm saying. what i personally believe and this is purely my judgment, i believe what donald trump has already done is change the initial bargaining position for the debate and the discussion about what will be done to interdict drugs as well as -- >> -- you just said -- lou jobs just said the cartels control the country. >> they control mexico. >> that's what i'm talking about. no cartel in mexico is going to give money to build the wall because there will be a
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grave the next day. >> there are many possibilities. >> many possibilities. >> for that money to be concentrated and dedicate to do that wall. he has enunciated several of them. talking about remittances. $50 billion a year. >> you can't stop it. >> you are such an optimist. a man of vision. >> i'm a guy -- >> -- you've got to believe in the future. >> i believe in the truth. and the truth is you can't stop the u.s. mail or fedex or anything else if you are president. you can't stop it they will send the money anyway. >> if we elect a leader who has the capacity to bring both parties and the house and the senate together no limit to the possibilities is to this country. it's what built this country. leadership and guts and vision. and we have got, it seems to me, a candidate articulating each of those things. >> so you think if trump gets elected president he is going to unite everybody behind him?
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i absolutely do. without equivocation. >> well, donald, i hope you are watching. this is -- right here. >> well, i mean, i'm going to vote for him. >> i know you are a supporter. and we respect that. listen, donald trump is the best political story, by best i mean the most important political story in my lifetime. in my lifetime. the assassination of president kennedy may be more but it's close. hey, lou, thank you very much. we appreciate it gutfeld and fk golden circle on deck. boys on a ban to remove the bible from public libraries coming to a town near you.quit that's next. y urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation,
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test. test.
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thanks for staying with us. i'm bill o'reilly in the back of the book segment tonight, what the heck just happened and here now the stars of this weekly segment. bernard mcguirk and greg gutfeld. gutfeld, any cut feeling about new york? play on words there. >> it's very good. like a jungle sometimes and makes me wonder how i keep from going under. i predict that donald trump is going to win big because this is his city. is he lick the harlem globe trotters instead of five black guys is he one orange
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guy. is he new york city. is he as new york as scaffolding, cat calls and stepping in some sun bathed liquid you can't identify. >> all right. so you are predicting a big night -- >> -- it has to be a big night. has to be a blow-out. >> you are a trump supporter, mcguirk. >> tonight is the beginning of his march to victory. he has had a few stumbles. the insufferable ted cruz won a few voterless victories, of course. between now and june 7th, which is california and new jersey, it's going to be like sherman's march to the sea. >> wow. >> anything in the way gets trampled. >> indiana though that's an interesting state. >> still up in the polls, that's right. but he has got the atlantic states next week. indiana following. >> both predicting and again woe believe we will have a call at 9:00 on the republican race. >> i already know. he won. i talked to a psychic on sixth avenue. he told me that trump wins by 35 and then he stole my watch. >> good. democratic side? >> yes. >> hillary or who is going to win. >> hillary will come -- she
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will beat bernie but only by a slim as margin as the polls predicted. he will continue. he has the momentum. he is nipping at her heels. >> when you see bernie and hillary they shouldn't be running for president but working the polling booth. nevertheless here they are. he has humiliated her once again. >> mary anne marsh embarrassing. >> big fly at lunch get him away. >> were bill, barack and bernie. war on women outrageous got to stop. >> exit polls show that the minorities are voting for hillary clinton tonight and that will put her over. i think, pretty hand diddly. it's an interesting story. james la row, larue, the office for intellectual freedom for the american library association has released 10 peculiars that are under fire to get them out of the libraries and on the list is the bible, gutfeld.
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have you ever opened the bible? >> i was altar boy for seven or eight years. that ended abruptly. you can read about that on wikipedia. it's easy to go after the bible because even the most extreme followers will not try to kill you. the worst thing a christian does is right write an angry letter. the real hypocrisy here is that people in ache keep i can't always strive for controversy. that means should embrace the bible. performance artist had read the bible nude it would be mandatory on every college campus. >> here's the big t libraries have the quran. but you don't have any hears for calling the quran because the bible quote has sex and violence in it. that's what these people who want the bible out. they are not saying we don't like god, which they don't. they are saying it's sex and violence in the bible. >> exactly. on the same list with 50 shades of of gray and two boys kissing bleefnt. >> we call it the lie berry.
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rorschach and blockbusters. i wouldn't worry about it too much. >> go in, get a little card. take the book out. read it, bring it back, you save 20 bucks. >> have you been to one recently. occasional student and hoards of i have a grants. they smell like the bathroom at penn station. >> not where i live. we have a very nice library in rhode island. >> i'm not allowed in my library. >> we don't want to know why. >> tip to the people new to the bible. old testament a little more happening there. the sequel not as exciting. >> a little more violent in the old testament. >> in the old testament. >> a lot of smiting. >> new testament pg. old testament r. >> when jesus was executed that's fairly violent and graphic. but you guys would never ever uphold taking the bible out of american libraries, would you? even you would draw the line on that. >> of course not. this is just ridiculous that they would put this list out. we organize a task force
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tough religious guys like tim tebow and ray lewis track these people down. >> that's a good idea. tebow. >> tebow and lewis. lewis i don't want to get in any confrontation. >> you want him in this fight. >> is he born again. all right, gentlemen, as always, we thank you. and factor tip of the day. i hung out with some legends last night. i did. we're going to show you the pic. moments away. i take pictures of sunrises. it's my job and it's also my passion. but with my back pain i couldn't sleep... so i couldn't get up in time. then i found aleve pm. aleve pm is the only one to combine a safe sleep aid plus the 12-hour strength of aleve... for pain relief that can last into the morning. and now... i'm back. aleve pm for a better am.
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no mail tonight because we are going to get you to our election coverage quickly so we can have a call. i do have a tip of the day. last night my pal, earth, wind and fire were in town. they were outstanding as always along with the band chicago, excellent as well. the show at madison square
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garden was a sell-out and everybody had a great time. the reason i even mention this is that earth, wind, and fire have been together for 45 years. and their music is uplifting. word of the day. uplifting. no matter if you're young, if you're old, if you're presbyterian. it doesn't matter. it's fun. everybody can appreciate earth, wind, and fire in chicago. now, the music simply makes you feel good. and it cuts across all racial boundaries. there is no angst. i mean, these guys are solid. and i introduce this music to young people every chance i get. because they're really, really something special. and that is it for us tonight. tomorrow we may be speaking with donald trump, depending on what kind of a mood he is in. and i think we will be. also, we're going to have a
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roll licking mail segment on last night's talking points memo which really shook up some people. it's posted on bill o' thanks again for watching the factor this evening. let's go now to the coverage of the new york state primary with megyn kelly and bret baier. >> thank you, bill. we are just minutes away from polls closing in new york where, for the first time, in decades, the primary in the empire state could play a major role in securing the nomination for both parties. good evening from america's election hawkeys in new york city i'm bret baier. >> yea, new york is finally relevant. we have never been relevant. we are tonight. hi, everybody, i'm megyn kelly. you are looking live at both trump headquarters and clinton headquarters in new york city. donald trump is expect to do speak at the top of the hour. and we're waiting on hillary clinton as well. both candidates with a lot on the line tonight. 9 a delegates at stake for the republicans. and if donald trump can take them all, we will be very happy. he would make it mathematically impossible for ted cruz to win the
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nomination outright, which cruz has said he will do. on the democratic side, 247 delegates at stake. hillary clinton trying to hold off a surging bernie sanders and win her adopted home state. >> we have fox team coverage tonight in the battle for new york. ed henry is live in times square with the clinton campaign. but we start with chief political correspondent carl cammeron live from trump tower. carl. >> fifth and 57th avenue and trump tower will soon have its owner-occupant at a podium behind me. a mob scene here 400 to 500 friends and family behind the candidate and there are hundreds of reporters here from all over the world tapped in for what is said it to be a convince of a speech and news conference where in he will take questions from the press. that remains to be seen. donald trump expects to do well tonight. he knows he must do well and a clean sweep would put him close to clinching the nomination and make it impossible for ted cruz and john kasich who has no chance of actually winning
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the necessary delegates to actually do so before the convention. it would be a very big win. the trump campaign has said that its target was to get about 80 delegates. in order to do that, he would have to win a majority of the 27 congressional districts. each with three delegates awarded to candidates. if a candidate gets more than 50%. it's winner-take-all for those three and then there is one all statewide contest in which if a candidate can get more than 50% and win it, they would get an additional 14 tellings. that brings the total to 95%. donald trump has worked very hard in new york. there have been robo calls. there has been door-to-door bee canvassing, perhaps more work in this his home state han any of the preceding contests, caucuses and primaries. for trump tonight it's a very big moment. he also knows he's looking at five big races next week, all of which the polls suggest he's got advantages in on the atlantic sea coast. but winning his home state has been his goal and it will be a big pivot point if it's as big as he expects.
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>> over on democratic side, bernie sanders has been drawing massive crowds in new york city and generating plenty of enthusiasm. but hillary clinton is way ahead in the delegate count, mostly due to superdelegates. and she hopes to extend that lead tonight. ed henry is live at clinton headquarters in times square just around the corner from here. ed, we're being told some sanders supporters had some major trouble at the poll s today. >> yeah, that's right, megyn. in fact, there's breaking news. a wild card added to all of this state election officials saying that maybe over 125,000 democrats in the borough muof brooklyn were deny the opportunity to vote. mayor de blasio says he's investigating. african-american leaders are concerned. that's important. recent polls have shown that hillary clinton has a massive edge with african-american voters here in the state of new york. bernie sanders and hillary clinton watching that closely.
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clint clinton's goal is not just to stop sanders' momentum, remember he's won eight of the last nine contests, but to deliver a knockout blow because off the delegate lead. sanders today was in manhattan at the beginning of the day talking tough, saying he will not let clinton walk away with the nomination tonight, a short time ago he had a rally in pennsylvania. that's the next big state voting next tuesday. and he doubled down and said that clinton is getting nervous and he believes in fact that he's going to defy expectations here in new york. but watch closely. sanders is not predicting he will win tonight. so the very bottom line is, he may exceed expectations and only lose by a few points, but given the late hour here in these contests, bernie sanders has to not just win but win by a decent margin if he's going to start aching up in the delegate game. >> while donald trump is ahead in the delegate count, a big vuktry could go a long way to getting to 1237. right now trump is leading with 756 delegates.
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senator cruz has 559, governor kasich 144, putting him even behind senator marco rubio who of course dropped out more than a month ago. bill hemmer has more on how new york congressional districts will play a pivotal role tonight. >> good evening. let's go to the board right now. as we mentioned, 95 delegates on the line on the republican side in new york. in this state we have 62 counties. but as carl was mentioning it's not the counties that matter. these are the congressional districts of which there are 27. in each district, there are 3 delegates available. if a candidate gets higher than 50% in that district, they get all 3 delegates f. they do not get to 50%, they get two delegates. and the second place finisher gets one. clear as mud, right? upstate you've got big areas with not a lot of people. but a lot of area. around new york city and the boroughs here, look how crowded it gets with all these colors down here in the bottom right. we put an inset map here to show
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you 12 different congressional districts that cover only 46 miles from staten island to westchester. it is a remarkable area of the country. we're going to watch how this develops tonight. back in 2012, we mentioned this repeatedly. it did not matter for republicans. why? because mitt romney swept the state, almost 63% of the vote. go back to 2008. hillary clinton/barack obama. she owned this state. easily winning with almost 58% of the vote. how will she do tonight eight years later? we're about to find out in about three minutes. bret and megyn, back to you. >> dana perino is with us, former white house press secretary and julie ra gwynn 60 and tucker carlson, great to see you. dana, let me start with you, what we're seeing p is poised t state. the whole question appears to be
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margin and whether he'll win big enough to make the path nice and smooth for him to 1237. >> we'll see. i don't think -- it won't be a huge surprise. it will be a disappointment i think to kasich and cruz if they're not able to keep him below 50%. we'll see as bill hemmer was just pointing out all those tiny congressional districts that tend to come in later. we may have to wait a little while to find out the margin. at the end of the night, we'll find out that those three candidates, texas ohio and new york and florida, those candidates won their home states. home state advantage is really important. i also think it reflects on demographics. if you want to break the republican party into three faction you might be actually able to look at new york ohio and texas and you have your demographic there. >> julie, it's all about margins on the republican side, about whether kasich and cruz can pick off any delegates. but on the democratic side, what is the margin by which bernie sanders creates and says it's a
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victory? >> well, mathematically he's got to lat literally win every single delegate in new york, which is impossible for him to do, in order to tie her in the pledge delegates. she's leading by about 244 pledge delegates. >> sure. but i'm talking momentum. >> but i don't believe in momentum mattering in this race. what matters is math. momentum only gets you that far. all the momentum he's had in the last few weeks hasn't translated into the math he needs to win the nomination. ultimately we talk a lot about superdelegates but she continues to lead among pledge delegates. unless he won every delegate, which is impossible, there's no way he can catch up to her. she just needs to tread water whether she wins by 2 or 10 or 20 points it doesn't matter. he will mathematically be unable to catch up to her provided she wins at least one delegate tonight. >> tucker, do you think momentum matters on the republican side? or do you think at this point in
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the race gopers have their mind made up? >> i think it matters quite a bit. there was a meeting today in washington between reince priebus the head of the rnc and republican lawmakers on capitol hill. the topic was, should we bring in someone else from outside the race who hasn't run at all to be the nominee installed in cleveland? so that's still on the table. i think people may not understand the degree to which that remains a popular idea in washington. if trump blow it's out tonight, over 50%, fwhief%, it gets tougher to make that argument, to ignore the voters. that's a meaningful mile steen for minimum. on the democratic side, this is the one year i agree with julie, math matters. but you don't know what's going to happen actually. if secretary clinton comes in five pointz over bernie sanders, six points, that's way below expectations. it raises the question, what is he going to ask for at the convention in philadelphia? he'll have a moral claim. what is he getting in return?
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that's the question. it could be a big thing. >> something big. panel, thank you. >> we are watching the polls tonight. we are now just a few seconds before the top of the hour where we are prepared to make a race call, at least on one side. stand by for that. it is 9:00 p.m. here on the east side. welcome to "the kelly file," coverage of the new york primary. my friend bret here with me. as polls close across the state, fox news can now project that new york businessman donald trump will win the empire state's republican presidential primary based on fox exit polls. how big is trump's victory? he may end up exceeding 50% of the vote here, which would be a first for him in any state. ohio governor john kasich is currently well ahead of texas senator ted cruz in the race for second place. but it is too early to say who will take the silver and who will take the bronze on that side. >> it is also too early to say whether former secretary of state hillary clinton will beat