unafraid. a lot happening this week. "on the record" stars with -- ss with my good friend brit hume just down the hall right now. good evening, and welcome back, i'm brit hume and this is "on the record." the presidential race has grown even tighter tonight amid signs enthusiasm for hillary clinton has dropped sharply. it appears that drop may have started when the fbi reopened its case into clinton on friday. nationally, as of this evening, the real clear politics average of polls shows clinton leading donald trump by 2.2 points in both the two and four-way races. the betting odds meanwhile continue to favor her now but now by less than 3 to 1 as compared to nearly 5 to 1 edge she had only days ago. our fox news electoral map has shifted in in trump's favor as well as correspondent shannon bream reports. >> it has been a wild week on the campaign trail, including several changes to our electoral map. again, this is based on the

latest polling and information we're gathering on the ground. let's start with a couple of moves guaranteed to make trump supporters happy. we have seen both florida, a 29 vote prize and nevada, which carries an additional 6 move from leaning democrat to becoming toss-ups. now, the good news for the clinton campaign. alaska moves from deep red, a solid g.o.p. strong hold to now leaning republican. also, we have seen north carolina, a key battleground state with 15 votes move from a toss-up into the leaning democrat column. so, how does that impact the overall numbers with 270 being what a candidate has got to get to to win the white house? well the solid g.o.p. states you see them all in deep red they account for 95 votes with leaning g.o.p. votes adding in an additional 79. together they account for 174 votes. the toss-ups, those are all the yellow ones sprinkled all over the map including critical states like florida and ohio total 77 votes. the solid democrat states are at a strong 182 with the light blue states leading democrat states adding

another 105. together those last two groups equal 287. those numbers show a tighter race than last week but, they still give trump the same assignment one week out from the election hold all the solid and leaning g.o.p. states pick up all the yellow toss-ups and pick off at least one major state that now leans democrat. things have been trending his way but clinton remains strong in the electoral college count, so we'll see one week from today. >> shannon, thank you. fresh polling since the fbi letter came out points to a change in voter enthusiasm. the abc news tracking poll shows in trump with 1 point lead in a four-way race. take a look at this, the percentage of clinton backers who say they are very enthusiastic has dropped in event days from 51% to 43%. in addition, voters in that same poll who said they would definitely turn out on election day favor mr. trump by 11 percentage points. veteran pollster and organizer frank luntz joins us.

frank, as you look at these new numbers what do you think? >> i think the trump people are pretty happy about it and they are happy because they see all the trends moving in the right direction. the point that you just made, brit, the idea that the intensity, the passion is on donald trump's side, that is significant because turnout, if you have just a 5-point fluctuation between clinton and trump in turnout, that can be worth half a percentage point and there will be at least two states, i promise you, two states decided by half a percent or less. the thing that has to give trump pause is colorado and north carolina. those are two states that trump has to win and they are still in hillary clinton's camp even with the race closing. and, brit, as we all know, in the end the popular vote isn't what matters it's the electoral college. that electoral college map is very difficult for trump even though in every other indicator it's moving in the right direction for him. >> is this the kind of momentum, frank, that you see that could begin to change those states that have now become, such as

florida now, a toss-up, nevada now a toss-up that could put them in the trump column given, you know, the political makeup of those states they look like states where trump would at least have a good chance. this momentum seems to be holding, at least for the last several days. what are your thoughts? >> i agree with that it's holding in states that republicans have to win. that's the problem that people have talked about now for the last four years. just how hard it is for a republican presidential candidate to put together enough states to win 270. in the off year elections, it's become quite easy for the g.o.p. to dominate senate races, house races and gubernatorial races. but in the higher turn out, frankly, more voters of color, more younger voters, the g.o.p. has not been doing well among those people. they are still not doing well now with just a week to go. and that's holld trump back. >> i want to ask you about one other -- the numbers i mentioned which was the lead that mr. trump holds, at least in that "the washington post" tracking poll of about 11 points among people who say they

are going to -- definitely going to vote on election day. now, i should add to that that mrs. clinton enjoys that lead in excess of 10 points among people who say they have already voted. she is up. of course that group is smaller than the group that will turn out on election day. what does that say to you about the possibility that mr. trump could overtake her with the voters that turn out on election day itself? >> well, we have seen early voting, particularly in 2012 benefit barack obama. and it's basically on track now. in some states the republicans are doing a little bit better than they did in 2012, but democrats tend to vote early. republicans tend to vote on the day of the election itself, that they are traditionalist and they appreciate the value of election day. to me, i'm not following the national polling and i do think that the numbers will continue to narrow. i only care about nevada, north carolina, and colorado. if trump takes two of those three states, he is probably the next president of the united states. if he fails, then it's

probably hillary clinton. >> now, we have noted that the polling average in north carolina, which seems to be emerging for the early part of this week as truly the key state and that shows it leaning, still leaning d. but there is one poll out tonight, i guess it's survey u.s.a., i don't know what you think about that particular polling organization, that actually has mr. trump up, what, six or seven points. what do you make of that. >> so i have looked in races. 1968 hue pert humphrey made up 6 points in the last week of the campaign but still came up short. same thing in 1976 gerald ford against jimmy carter. thursday of election week until the following week election day, reagan moved 9 points. but that's because of a presidential debate. the fact is that trump and clinton are not going to face off with each other between now and election day. can you move thee points in 8 days? 7 days? absolutely. but it is still better to be in hillary clinton's position right now where she has had a consistent lead in

those three states. >> okay. frank, always good to have you. thank you very much. >> thank you, brit. >> with a week to go to election day donald trump is facing momentum as the investigation by the fbi on his opponent. carl cameron is live inside -- well, no, he is outside a trump rally for a change. wonderful. carl, nice to see you and for you to be able to hear me. >> hi, brit. yes, one of those rare occasions when we were actually able to do outside one so we could talk. what we're talking about is donald trump and mike pence today in pennsylvania, a state where he trails in the polls, tonight trump here in wisconsin, another state where he trails in the polls, trying to expand the battlefield based on the surge that he has had in some of those other battle ground swing states that you were talking about with frank and others earlier this evening. today in pennsylvania valley forge, as a matter of fact, both trump and pence were there together and while mr. trump and pence both did criticize hillary clinton, there was no mention of the fbi investigation of hillary

clinton's newly discovered emails on her aide huma abedin's laptop. this was about policy. something trump has been very studious, very disciplined about for the last week and a half when the obama administration announced that they were, in fact, going to be increasing premiums for the affordable care act next year. this is how trump advanced his policy proposal today in valley forge. watch. >> i will ask congress to convene a special session so we can repeal and replace. and it will be such an honor for me, for you, and for everybody in this country because obamacare has to be replaced. and we will do it and we will do it very, very quickly. it is a catastrophe. >> pence was part of that and he talked about what trump's plan actually is, do away with obamacare, create health savings accounts, foster more intrastate commerce for health insurance, much the way car and life insurance is sold and allow block granting of

medicaid money to the states so that they can handle it. that is the entire -- that's essentially the totality of what trump would do in lieu of obamacare. tonight here in wisconsin, the band is back together for donald trump. rudy giuliani was part of the opening introduction speeches which are still underway. reince priebus was here. we're in the home state of the house speaker paul ryan who today said he did early vote for the republican nominee. but seemed to agonize over not trying to say donald trump's actual name and when he was asked if he was going to come to the rally in his home state tonight the speaker said he wasn't aware of it and had other plans. so that little rift continues to exist even though the speaker did vote -- early vote for the republican nominee. brit? >> i think we have seen, carl, that among the other dignitaries my father used to hate he preferre poobah actu,

scott walker trying to warm up the crowd for him. i wondered if there has been a fall-off in the intensity of audience response. i'm sure the crowd is always huge, they always are. when he talks about issues and delivers point by point as to how he is going to deal with obamacare say, how is the audience responding to that? >> they are responding very, very favorably. this thing is about to start and the line goes -- i can see about a quarter of a mile and third of a mile the line is four and five across and still going. a lot of folks aren't going to get in tonight. the capacity of the hall he is in is 3400. it's already elbow to elbow. this has been happening quite a bit. the crowd loves the policy part of this. it in many ways undercuts what was a year and a half of the media and the critics and the analysts and a lot of his republican opponents saying that donald trump wasn't putting forth policy. it's not just the affordable care act and its repeal. contract with the american voter ticks off a dozen

different ideas. policy promises not so much specifics in the aggregate, but they love that stuff. and what he is now being able to do and turn and punch away at hillary clinton for the email scandal, for the obamacare catastrophe with the rising premiums, et cetera, et cetera. so he has both. this is the kind of thing that, you know, convexal political reporters have been waiting for him to do and he is doing it exactly at the right time. brit? >> all right, carl, thanks very much. tonight is hillary clinton's perception held by some at least that she is a corrupt candidate. there is more news from the fbi and this time it has nothing to do with clinton's emails. fox news correspondent jennifer griffin is with that campaign just outside orlando. hi, jennifer. >> hi, brit. well, there are far more protesters, pro-trump protesters outside hillary clinton's rallies here in florida today. hillary clinton did not come back to talk to us on board the plane. she has not done so for several days. she is not really engaging with the traveling press since the announcement by the fbi director on friday.

in fact, one of her senior staff did speak to us and said that the fbi has not reached out either to the campaign, to clinton's lawyer, or to huma abedin, whose emails, of course, are in question. we saw the first images of huma abedin yesterday dropping her young son off at a preschool in new york city. these pictures were published by the daily mail. huma abedin has not been on the campaign trail with clinton since friday. she used to never leave her side. meanwhile the campaign has another headache with the fbi today. the fbi released documents from a 2001 investigation in to president bill clinton's pardon of democratic donor marc rich whose wife denise donated heavily to the clinton library you will remember, $450,000. clinton pardoned marc rich on the last day of his presidency. and the fbi says that they released those documents of the investigation because due to a foia request.

the timing of the release so close to the election created more churn for the clinton campaign. spokesman brian fallon tweeted absent a foia litigation deadline, this is odd. will fbi be posting documents on trump's housing discrimination in the 1970s? clinton has been trying to stay on message and make her closing argument on the trail. today at her first event in florida she did not reference the fbi director james comey or their frustration with the agency for releasing information on the eve of an election. he left those argue. s to surrogates. she was joined today by alicia matched who donald trump called mispigy. he hoped to appeal to women releasing an ad today with some of the most offensive stuff trump has said about women. the headlines continue to be about the fbi investigation. she is here in sanford, florida. that, of course, is where trayvon martin was killed

several years back. and hillary clinton has become very close with his mother sybrina fulton and other mothers of the movement. again, they are trying to talk about issues, national security issues, and they keep getting drawn back to this fbi issue. back to you. >> jennifer, i should note that the fbi is out with a statement tonight about that marc rich case in which they say that that freedom of information act request that led to this release today was in -- sort of in the cue and was acted upon when they got to it and automatically released when the okay for release was given and that there was no attempt here to time it in any particular way. i don't know whether the clinton campaign is aware of that but i thought i would pass that on. >> absolutely, brit. in fact, the fbi says it was a pure coincidence and they have received multiple foia requests for that document and it just came up in the cue. the clinton campaign when they were tweeting i don't believe was aware of that but the timing could not be worse for them. back to you.

>> all right. jennifer, thanks very much. well, with the new cloud of doubt, of course, hanging over the clinton campaign, how is hillary clinton responding? jennifer gave us a taste of that hear now from our nightly political panel. guy benson political editor of town hall.com and nina easton the veteran journalist at "fortune magazine." nina, your thoughts. >> i thought the clinton campaign when all the news about this broke last friday was. >> it seems like a week ago, doesn't it? instead, three or four days? >> how long is it until election day? >> six days. >> anyways, they did a pretty masterful job of shifting the headlines from the fbi and trouble in hillary camp to comey, right? so jim comey, the head of the fbi became the target of attacks within 24 hours at the most. that became the headline. they activated the entire democratic machinery to go after him. and, by the way, they had the -- they also were able to call on republican top,

former top justice officials who also added fuel, helping clinton by saying -- but by making the point that he not only broke protocol but potentially acted incredibly inappropriately, so they shifted that. >> your thoughts? >> i disagree. first of all, some of the top republicans from the justice department, veterans, have come out and defended comey. michael mukasey actually attacked him from the other direction saying he should have pushed further to indict mrs. clinton or recommend charges. but, i do wonder how this could have played differently if hillary clinton had just said right out of the gate, this is unexpected, some people are going to question the timing, this is what director comey felt he had to do to make sure there was no allegations of some sort of coverup. we will cooperate as much as we possibly can. we do not anticipate any change in outcome. let's get back to the election. that's not what she decided to do. they decided to go on the attack, shoot the messenger and, yes, they have rallied the media to their cause, which is not particularly hard to do. >> and the base. >> and the base of their

cause. >> wait a minute, the base is rallying, why is the enthusiasm falling off? >> i was going to point to that. that enthusiasm gap, we have to be careful of that. i remember in 2012 watching very closely the mitt romney vs. obama campaign and there supposedly mitt had all the enthusiasm on his side and, therefore, you know, and people didn't like obama as much because the economy wasn't doing well and it was overestimated, and it turned out -- and at that time, you know, a week before the election, the polls were tied and obama won by 4.8%. >> there was a big discrepancy between the national polls and state polls and the state polls turned out and state polls turned out in an election state by state to have been right. let me just ask this question. did not the -- if she had said something like what guy suggested, with no new information from what's in the emails, there was really nowhere for that story to go. in other words, the story

would undoubtedly -- people may have asked about it but there was really no new revelations to come. the story would have had a chance of dying. the effect of her attacking comey was to keep the story alive, was it not. >> i don't think it would have died. you had trump out there saying this is the next watergate. >> he can say that all he wants but that's the end of it. >> no. the press would have been looking -- would have been speculating about what was in those emails. there would have been -- they would have completely bought into press investigation based on limited facts and it would have not gone in her favor. now, however, she needs to be -- she is having trouble regaining the offense. i agree on that part. >> one of her closing arguments seems to be and she made this exact comment at a rally yesterday there is no case here. sort of like closing with i'm not a crook. i'm not sure how that plays. the cynicism on the comey attacks is obvious and embarrassing. these are people -- the democratic party was just couldn't say enough about the professionalism, the

integrity of james comey for months after he declined to recommend charges. now, on a dime, they turn to suggesting that maybe he even committed a federal crime. this was after weeks of hammering how trump's rhetoric might be undermining trust in our institutions and now they are doing exactly that themselves. it's sort of pathetic to watch. >> major, respected voices question comey's actions as being, again, not just out of the ball park for protocol but being inappropriate, ineffecting an election and investigation. >> nina, guy, stick around. time now to speed read some other news in the world of politics. house speaker paul ryan says as carl cameron reported that he has already voted for donald trump. ryan told fox news that he cast his ballot for the republican nominee last week. ryan still refuses to campaign with trump, however and won't be at tonight's trump rally in ryan's home state ofistic with. he also expressed confidence that house republican also reelect him as speaker. some hard right conservatives are talking about replacing ryan.

some are unhappy ryan distanced himself from trump early on. an fbi investigation has so far turned up no direct link between donald trump and russia. for months the fbi looked russian role in the links. investigated close advisors to trump in ties to russia. searched anyone who may have been involved in hacking democrats' computers. today the "new york times" reports none of those allegations -- investigations, excuse me, revealed the link between trump and the russian government. as the race for the white house takes unexpected turn, both the trump and clinton campaigns are changing advertising strategy. the clinton campaign is back on the air in colorado after suspending ads in july. back then it was a sign of confidence that clinton had wrapped up that state. meanwhile trump is maintaining ads in michigan and in new mexico. a sign he is trying to win those democratic leaning states. trump fraud.com, and trump suck.com. but it turns out that donald trump himself owns those and

other similar dozens of other similar web addresses. the sites sound like they are bashing the nominee but by owning them trump makes sure his critics and rivals cannot use them to attack him. wikileaks just released its 25th dump of emails from hillary clinton's campaign chairman. wikileaks promises something much bigger coming soon. we will tell you about that next. >> in three days it's the little things in life that make me smile. spending the day with my niece. i don't use super poligrip for hold, because my dentures fit well. before those little pieces would get in between my dentures and my gum and it was uncomfortable.

even well fitting dentures let in food particles. just a few dabs of super poligrip free is clinically proven to seal out more food particles so you're more comfortable and confident while you eat. so it's not about keeping my dentures in, it's about keeping the food particles out. try super poligrip free.

there are new wikileaks emails out today and once again they raise uncomfortable questions, including about an email about her emails. among other things, chief national correspondent ed henry reports. >> as hillary clinton's campaign scrambled to deal with fallout from the fbi

investigation into her private email use. >> hello dated city. >> wikileaks continue to pile on with its 25th installment of hacked emails from clinton campaign chairman john podesta. today's dump puts the spotlight on advice to and from podesta. like this email from democratic strategist joel johnson. after clinton beat bernie sanders in the nevada caucuses. quote bernie needs to be ground to a pulp he boat wrote. you crush him as far as you can. other than that hope all is well and congrats from nevada. another email causing heart burn from clinton's camp is the one involving details of private server. >> did you wipe the server. >> what, with like a cloth or something? >> just two days before congress subpoenaed clinton's emails podesta told cheryl mills, quote, we are going it have to dump al those emails so better to do so sooner than later. clinton aides said clinton

meant as soon as possible and dump them out there. if that's the case the campaign chairman's advice was not taken because later that march, thousands of clinton emails were wiped clean. >> and they didn't just push the delete button, they had them deleted where even god can't read them. >> another email exchange shows how the inner circle reacted when clinton confidante lanny davis said to fox news a neutral party should go through clinton's emails. >> i think it is a reasonable idea if anybody has any doubts that there is a delete on hard drive. >> to have an independent force go inspect her private email? >> we got a zap lanny out of our universe said campaign manager robbie mook. i can't believe he committed her to a private review of her hard drive on tv. the new emails also showcased the cozy relationship between the clinton camp and google's chairman. quote: i met with eric schmidt tonight wrote podesta. is he ready to fund, revise, recruit talent clearly wants to be head outside advisor. just a month later schmidt

actively coached the campaign on how to cloud voter base and how to use target to target voters. smart phone also be used to identify, meet, and update profiles on the voter. a dynamic volunteer can easily speak with a voter and with their email or other digital handle get the voter videos and other answers to areas they care about. this brings the total to nearly 42,000 emails released by wikileaks in the final days of the campaign. but stay tuned, they are promising more. saying they will launch phase 36 their efforts by the end of the week with talk of some sort of a bombshell as early as thursday. brit? >> okay, ed. we will wait for that and the fbi is combing through clinton emails on anthony weiner's laptop. how are they doing that? catherine herridge has that story next. crohn's disease. i didn't think there was anything else to talk about.

but then i realized there was. so, i finally broke the silence with my doctor about what i was experiencing. he said humira is for people like me who have tried other medications but still experience the symptoms of moderate to severe crohn's disease. in clinical studies, the majority of patients on humira saw significant symptom relief. and many achieved remission. humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. if you're still just managing your symptoms, talk with your gastroenterologist about humira. with humira, remission is possible.

but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one.

with it, i earn unlimited 2% cash back on all of my purchasing. and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... which adds fuel to my bottom line. what's in your wallet? just a week before election day the fbi is using special software to sift through emails on a laptop belonging to clinton aide huma abedin's estranged husband anthony weiner. agents kept finding more and more emails tied to clinton herself. fox news chief intelligence correspondent catherine herridge is here. hi, catherine. what do you know. >> based on our reporting today we were able to learn that these new york fbi agents that first analyzed the computer kept getting hits for documents in sort of three separate buckets. one was the foundation, the other was the clinton

server, and then the third was classified records. we don't know if these are duplicates but that's why they have got this new program that's churning through all of the emails now. >> so what this program does is looks for search terms? >> correct. >> like searching a database for a particular word or phrase or whatever? >> that's right. it's a program that has parameters that are set like key words, for example. but also has the ability to take records and mash them against what's already in the fbi's holdings. >> it's called -- it's anti-duping. >> d duping that was a new term. i would like to be d-duped myself. so it can go through and give you a little folder. may not be that little in this case a folder with the new records. here's the thing. once you have got a folder like that, you have to determine whether there is classified information and that's where the process sort of grinds to a halt. >> because you have got actual email out and read it? >> you have to physically get it out. that's what the fbi calls

eyes on and then you have to farm it out to the agency where you think the agency intelligence came from. what we learned is that over the weekend they had this special task force during the initial review of the clinton emails. this is an intelligence community task force. these are like cia people and the like and they ramped that up over the weekend to start drilling down through these records to understand what was there for two reasons. one, whether sources or methods were compromised and, two, to kind of have director comey's back if he was really pressed monday of this week for more details from the white house and congress and the politicians. >> so, in other words, this would give him something to talk about. >> exactly. give him a little cover like we have done -- like he would know for himself -- he would have even more confidence than what the new york agents have said. >> does this strike you as some sort of crash program. >> yes. >> to try to get something out before election day, reach some kind of preliminary conclusion? >> okay. i am going to take that back. i don't think it's a crash program to get something out before the election. but i think it has that

sensef urgency to reaffirm where the review is going and whether it's justified. what i would say is that these programs going through 675,000 emails, if that's a good number, sounds like incredible task to you and i. but for these computers and the algorithms they use and d-duping it that's something experts say they can do in a couple of days. so that's pretty quick. so we may know whether they are duplicates or not. if there are new records that's when it really close down. >> it's hard to picture the fbi coming out and saying anything more about this investigation because after all every time they say something people say they should not be talking about an ongoing investigation. >> i know. it's a real box to be in. but the director's position has been pretty consistently that when the review is complete he will make a statement. and the sense is that in july when he made his statement he felt he was dealing with the entire universe of evidence and now he knows that's not the case. >> catherine, thanks very

much. >> you're welcome. >> these states that you see there on your screen could change everything. next tuesday there are 34 u.s. senate seats in all up for grabs one week from today. the bad news are from the g.o.p. 24 of them are in republican hands in anti-incumbent year. recent developments suggest that what looked like certain loss of control of the senate by republicans might not happen. let's look at. so senate races. for that we turn to scott jennings who did political analysis for bush 43 white house and now does it for us. scott, welcome. >> thank you. >> let's go through some states that were on that map. first of all, indiana. indiana is a state that's a republican-held seat that looks certain to flip to the democrats but what are you seeing now? >> democrats felt they had a slam dunk recruit in evan bayh who used to hold the seat and he comes back hopefully in their mind to dan coyotes. he runnings a terrible campaign which he doesn't live in indiana anymore. they have made hay of. dead heat. republicans feel good about

their movement there especially if it's true that trump is moving that could help pull todd young the republican across. >> that race is now just a 2 point, 3 point lead for young in the real clear politics average. missouri is a red state if there ever was one. roy blunt is the incumbent republican but is he in trouble, right? >> he is. it's been a close race in missouri. the democrat candor has run a very strong race. some pollings showing hillary clinton competitive. this is where you will see trump if is he separating in the really red states it will help somebody like roy blunt who has stuck with trump. some senators have not. blunt has stuck with trump. if he wins by single digits or double digits you would think it would be a good hold prospects. candor is one of the best recruits of the cycle. >> good candidate. >> took a gun apart blindfolded in a tv special. >> he is down only .7% in

that real clear politics average. >> this one has been leaning democrat all year. a lot of folks thought it wasn't in play. we see late spending here by the democrats. we see outside groups spending in wisconsin. we see hillary clinton going there with her campaign money. so clearly something's going on in wisconsin. >> doesn't seem to be reflected in the real clear politics average has ron johnson down to the former senator, the man he eplaced actually russ feingold by northeasterly 7 points. >> polling had it for republicans late movement in both parties has convinced me there is some concern on the democrats' part that johnson is not totally out of it but this one does lean democrat. >> new hampshire has been close for a long time law seeing there. >> flat dead heat in new hampshire. ayotte unlike blunt in missouri has had a different relationship with trump. she disavowed trump. she is running with governor hasan and it's been a very close race. >> both of those candidates are popular with the voters, aren't they. >> they are. both have been popular and

both have had interesting journeys in their campaign. they have had ups and downs, republicans feel good about ayotte's campaign skills. if trump doesn't win new hampshire. >> then it's not very close up there for him, is it. >> not at the moment. again, this is another state where you can see if clinton falters at the end, even if she holds onto the white house loses a few states like new hampshire wins it but wins it close you can see where ayotte can win and republicans like her political skills. >> she has been pretty popular up there. north carolina this seems to be the state of the week that everybody is talking about. your thoughts about north carolina for the republican incumbent senator richard burr there. >> burr has been in a dogfight all year against debra ross. burr has run what some think is a lackluster campaign. he is up slightly and up a little bit in this elon poll out. >> elon is a college. >> average showing him up a little bit. early voting is going on in north carolina. if it's true which statisticians say it is that

african-american turnout is way down over 2012, this helps burr, of course, because those are solid democratic votes. if it's also true that trump is moving a little bit in north carolina and is gonna try to put that one on the board for himself, that would help burr, so i think this is slightly lean republican but still another dead heat race on the map. >> we have got time for a couple more. florida, what do you see there. >> this one is going towards the republicans. marco rubio left the presidential campaign and went back to run for his senate seat. democrats thought they had a really strong shot here until aruba came back. patrick murphy has been a bit of a mess as a candidate. we have had a few close polls there. hispanic early voting here has been up and although that might hurt donald trump, marco rubio is going to be stronger with the hispanic voters? florida. it looks like and feels like rubio is on his way back to the senate. >> lastly, quickly, nevada? >> nevada dead toss-up, hard state to poll. we have had polls showing the republican up and polls showing the democrat up. early voting here looks a lot like it did in 2012. if that's true, that's good

news for the democrats. heck has been battling hard. this is a personal seat. this is the seat of retiring harry reid and so the republicans would love to pick it off as a way to hold the majority. >> that would be a gain, yes. >> right. scott, tremendous stuff. thanks very much. obamacare was created to keep americans healthy. a new study finds many obamacare users are avoiding doctors. we are looking at the premium hikes. [ dinosaur growls ] and his dad earned 2% back at grocery stores and wholesale clubs. yeah! even before they earned 3% back on gas. danny's parents used their bankamericard cash rewards credit card to give him the best day ever. that's the joy of rewarding connections. learn more at bankofamerica.com/getcashback. before i had the shooting, burning, pins-and-needles of diabetic nerve pain, these feet... ... kicked off a lot of high school games... ... built a life for my family... ... and liked to help

others in need. but i couldn't bear my diabetic nerve pain any longer. so i talked to my doctor and he prescribed lyrica. nerve damage from diabetes causes diabetic nerve pain. lyrica is fda-approved to treat this pain, from moderate to even severe diabetic nerve pain. lyrica may cause serious allergic reactions or suicidal thoughts or actions. tell your doctor right away if you have these, new or worsening depression, or unusual changes in mood or behavior. or swelling, trouble breathing, rash, hives, blisters, muscle pain with fever, tired feeling or blurry vision. common side effects are dizziness, sleepiness, weight gain and swelling of hands, legs, and feet. don't drink alcohol while taking lyrica. don't drive or use machinery until you know how lyrica affects you. those who have had a drug or alcohol problem may be more likely to misuse lyrica. now i have less diabetic nerve pain. and it's great to help others get back on their feet. ask your doctor about lyrica.

now that fedex has helped us we could focus on bigger issues, like our passive aggressive environment. we're not passive aggressive. hey, hey, hey, there are no bad suggestions here... no matter how lame they are. well said, ann. i've always admired how you just say what's in your head, without thinking. very brave. good point ted. you're living proof that looks aren't everything. thank you. welcome. so, fedex helped simplify our e-commerce business and this is not a passive aggressive environment. i just wanted to say, you guys are doing a great job. what's that supposed to mean? fedex. helping small business simplify e-commerce. i've never been #1 in anything until i put these babies on. now we're on a winning streak and i'm never taking them off.

do i know where i'm going? absolutely. we're going to the playoff. allstate guarantees your rates won't go up just because of an accident. starting the day you sign up. so get accident forgiveness from allstate. and be better protected from mayhem, like me. donald trump has made repealing and replacing obamacare one of his key policy plans and with double digit proposal yum rises on the horizon, a recent study by the market research firm gvk found 50% of obamacare users are cutting back on care, compare that to 33% among the general insured population. and in the key swing state of arizona, premiums are expected to go up by 116%. that's the highest in the nation. peter barnes, senior washington correspondent for the fox business network is taking a look at that as part of our ongoing series. >> arizona is the swing

state with the highest projected increase in health insurance premiums under obamacare for 2017. a jump of 116% for the benchmark silver plan more than four times the increase in the national average. and the number of insurers there participating in obamacare is falling from 8 to 2. with phoenix down to only 1. using figures from the administration, the typical 27-year-old arizona voter on obamacare will see his or her average premium in the silver plan jump from $196 a month to $422 a month or about $2,400 a year to 5,000 a year. the administration says tax credits and other government subsidies could cover much of the increase but in phoenix, that 27-year-old earning $25,000 a year would phase deductibles of about $2,400 to about 5300 in a silver plan. about 180,000 people purchased obamacare in arizona this year, the

government says, about 2.3 million people voted in each of the last two presidential elections there. right now, hillary clinton and donald trump are in a dead heat in arizona and the average of the latest polls there by real clear politics.com which means higher premiums and fewer choices in obamacare could be a pocketbook issue that gives donald trump, who wants to repeal obamacare, a better chance to beat hillary clinton there. the administration says about three quarters of obamacare's customers in arizona got a tax credit or some other financial assistance last year to help subsidize their premiums. that says about the same could get help this year and pay $100 or less in a monthly premium. brit? >> peter, thank you. so how is donald trump campaigning amid his opponent's latest troubles? our political panel will assess that next. i'm in. i'm in. i'm in. i'm in. ♪ ♪

one, two, - wait, wait. wait - where's tina? doing the hand thing? yep! we are all in for our customers. ally. do it right. coaching means making tough choices. we are ajim! you're in! stomers. but when you have high blood pressure and need cold medicine that works fast, the choice is simple. coricidin hbp is the only brand that gives powerful cold symptom relief without raising your blood pressure. coricidin hbp.

want a great way to help our children thrive? then be sure to vote yes on proposition 55. prop 55 doesn't raise taxes on anyone. instead, it simply maintains the current tax rate on the wealthiest californians to prevent education cuts that would hurt our kids. no wonder prop 55 is endorsed by the california pta, teachers and educators. because all of us want to help our children thrive. it's time to vote yes on proposition 55.

insurers are leaving. doctors are quitting. deductibles go through the roof. workers' hours are being cut. hiring is frozen. totally frozen. and wages are being slashed. obamacare means higher prices, fewer choices, and lower quality. yet, hillary clinton wants to expand obamacare and make it even more expensive. >> that's donald trump today in the swing state of pennsylvania as he took direct aim as you can see at obamacare, something he has been hammering recent days at the same time this race has gotten closer. is there a connection? tonight he is very much on message speech in wisconsin. nightly political panel is back guy benson political eted tore at town hall.com

and nina easton veteran journalist at "fortune magazine." guy, trump hasn't maintained that much but he hastedty as she has declined. how much does his campaign have to do, if any, with this? >> i think this is a smart move from the trump campaign. you sort of have donald trump and mike pence campaigning against obamacare while hillary clinton is campaigning against the director of the fbi. i'm not sure that works out particularly well if the race is in fact tightening. >> for her, you mean. >> for her. i'm saying watching that clip alone that is a very subdued donald trump, sort of soberly going through the list of real problems with obamacare that is hitting right as this october, november surprise day one of the open enrollment is today and this is exactly the issue, one of them, at least, that he should be focused on and it's wise counsel that is he taking, obviously. >> nina. >> six days before the election and it's good issue for him. obamacare is not very

popular, wildly unpopular with republicans and not very popular with independents. it's extremely timely for him to be talking about this because we have reports out now that potential 25% average increase in premiums. >> yeah and people -- and the word that people are cutting back on healthcare, stop seeing doctors because it's costing too much. >> so even people who are using obamacare aren't happy with obamacare, so it's a really good message for him. he went on to talk about trade, which is another message that resonates certainly with his voters. so sort of antitrade talk. >> now, the question arises, the trajectory of the race right now, obviously the state of the rates favors her. trajectory of the race at the moment favors him. he is the wynn one with momentum and she is declining. is this kind of campaigning subdued, on point campaigning which carl cameron was reporting his audiences seem to love, is this enough to pull this out by election day? he only has a few days.

>> we will see with so much early voting as well already in the bank. i would look very closely. she clearly is still the frontrunner in the race based on the polling averages both nationally and in the key states. i'm keeping an eye, in particular, on north carolina. because trump, if you look at the rcp, real clear politics average he has surged slightly ahead in to the lead in florida. he is back ahead just by a hair in ohio. he is still up just a bit in iowa. one crucial piece of the puzzle for him is winning all of the romney states from 2012 and the only one where is he trailing currently is north carolina. a couple favorable polls in the last. >> he needs romney states get him to 206 out of the needed 270 electoral votes so he would need to start picking off states in addition -- florida would be a big piece of it, that would give him another 30, get him to 235 if he carries north carolina but then he has a ways to go still, right? >> north carolina is the one, i think, a very

important race to watch. because if he can gain the lead there and win north carolina, then he is -- and he holds the lead elsewhere he has all the romney states plus the small leads in florida, ohio, iowa. then he needs one more big blue state or a combination of a few small blue states to get to 270. >> tough but doable? do you think so nina. >> tough but doable. the thing the democrats do have that built in demographic advantage and that's going to hurt him regardless of what happens in the next couple days. and regardless of the polls tightening. that's a consistent trend. democratic strategists. >> quickly. >> who think this is all baked in a long time ago and it's really just at the margins that things are moving. >> turns out that way sometimes. sometimes. nina, guy, thanks very much for coming. in coming up, wait until you hear what some viewers thought was the halloween costume i wore on air last night. mean tweets coming up next.

it's not something you do now and then. or when it's convenient. it's using state-of-the-art simulators to better prepare for any situation. it's giving offshore teams onshore support. and it's empowering anyone to stop a job if something doesn't seem right. at bp, safety is never being satisfied. and always working to be better.

which is good for me anever 200-degree range of sight... hey! ... and bad for the barkley twins. take care of all your most important parts with centrum. with our most vitamin d three ever. be overwhelming and complicated. that's why at cancer treatment

centers of america, every patient gets their own care manager, to coordinate every aspect of their care. it's a long journey, its very complicated and we try to help them through that. we are available 24/7. if a new symptom occurs in the middle of the night, we are there to help. the care manager coordinates all of the patient's appointments, scans, chemotherapy... the last thing any patient really needs to worry about is how am i going to get here, how is insurance going to handle this? one of the great things we do is help them manage their symptoms at home. we as care managers want to take as much stress off the patient as we can. meet the care managers at ctca. my name is mena... collette jodi vincent stacy our nurse care managers are with you every step of the way so you can focus on your fight. learn more at cancercenter.com/caremanananar appointments available.

i just want to find a used car without getting ripped off. you could start your search at the all-new carfax.com that might help. show me the carfax. now the car you want and the history you need are easy to find. show me used trucks with one owner. pretty cool. [laughs] ah... ahem... show me the carfax. start your used car search and get free carfax reports at the all-new carfax.com.

>> insult women. >> it's all talk. >> well, here we go again. >> it's really bad judgment. >> issue, not insults. >> she should be ashamed of herself. >> fox news channel has election night covered, fair and balanced, up to the minute exit polls, breaking race results and powerful analysis from the best team in politics, plus, it all happens live from our new state of the art studio, only fox news channel has election night covered because we are america's election headquarters. >> and now it's time for another round of viewer feedback, this one all about that pinstriped suit i wore on the air last night you can see it there. ken said:

please keep the feedback coming, folks, we really like hearing from you. tweet me using brit hume or email "on the record" at foxnews.com. that's about it for us tonight. stay tuned for "the o'reilly factor." bill will break down all the latest polling and what it means as the candidates enter the final stretch. governor mike pence enters the no spin zone as well. in the meantime we leave you as always with our political quote of the day which comes from mark twain who said, quote honest man in politics shines more there than he would elsewhere. we will be back here tomorrow at 7:00 eastern. we hope you will, too. don't forget the factor is coming up next and election day is exactly one week away. we have a full day of coverage planned for you

right here on the fox news channel through the day and the evening. we hope you will join us throughout election day and night. good night. ♪ ♪ "the o'reilly factor" is on. tonight: >> i will continue to address and expose the criminal corruption of hillary clinton. >> but time is growing short for donald trump. he's gaining in the popular vote but the states remain problematic. we will have a full report tonight. >> i pledge to you that i will do everything i can to heal the divide. >> hillary clinton still not campaigning full time. is she trying to run out the clock? talking points will address it. >> the momentum is on our side. the latest polls have donald trump leading nationwide. >> also ahead tonight, governor mike pence will be here. he's in pennsylvania. is it possible that state will go republican?