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tv   Perino Stirewalt Ill Tell You What  FOX News  November 7, 2016 9:00pm-10:01pm PST

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matter what happens. america is voting in t minus one minute. thanks for inviting us into your homes tonight. that is it for this late-night edition. fair, balanced. >> etc. midnight and we're looking at the first votes being cast. i'll tell you what. i'm dana perino. >> i'm chris stire walt. >> here is what we can tell you. after 596 days, the final campaign events are happening now. you made it, america now. it's over. >> the fox news election team is fanned out from coast to coast with all of the latest on this historic election. also, are the polls right? we're going to put them to the
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test. and topsy-turvy race for the senate. finally, all americans are created equal. that is not the same for counties and chris is going to testimony you which are the most important when it comes to predicting results. chris? >> yes. >> it is midnight in dixville knox. why is that important? >> i want to congratulate americans for surviving this. we know this is ridiculous. 40% of the ballots have been cast, but the civic pageant of voting in person which i think is good and important, i think election day should be a national holiday. everybody ought to get it off, except for us, obviously. and people should see each other
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and be part of this civic pageant. in new hampshire, they dig that stuff. towns with fewer than 100 human beings can open their polls whenever they want. and as first votes are counted the sprint to the finish line continues. so look that up on the campaign trail with jennifer griffin and griff jenkins, the griff and griff show had been all night long. >> looked like a big crowd there for hillary clinton. >> well, as big as we've seen. 33,000 people turns out, dana. here, we're standing in front of independence hall. and what is really notable tonight is this was really a moment where president obama it was a farewell address and
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making the case for hillary clinton and why she would be the best to preserve his legacy. for the president, this has been a very personal campaign, he took very personally, donald trump attacks on him. he used them as races at times, today was the last day for him to be campaigning and he ended it here in philadelphia. hillary clinton went on to north carolina. she'll have her final campaign rally down in north carolina, she was joined by jon bon jovi. it was poignant, seeing the two first families standing together. michelle obama, a very important voice in the democratic party making the case for why decency is on the ballot and how a protest vote would be a vote for
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donald trump. here, tonight, 33,000 people, a large crowd, and now, tomorrow, hillary clinton will cast her ballot first thing in the morning near her house in and see if she'll make history. >> jennifer, you've done a fantastic job and you're almost home, sister. you're almost home. >> we'll see you soon. >> thank you. >> let's turn to griff jenkins in grand rapids, michigan. griffinator? >> well, chris ends it here in grand rapids, michigan. the final rally of his bid, he's not here yet. mike pence arrived but trump is on his way. now, the scene is too familiar. one side of the street we have
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100 protestors exercising their first amendment right, letting folks know they don't like candidate trump. on the other side, thousands lining up, this line here outside of the davoss, this line goes around the block. they're yelling back and forth peacefully. no issues so far. earlier, donald trump doesn't have bon jovi or lady gaga, he did have ted nugent electrifying the crowd with the national anthem. trump has come here twice in two days, making eight visits to michigan since he got the g.o.p. nomination. he cut a deficit to three and a half votes. and we'll find out if these folks will get out of bed and vote for donald trump. >> griff i know if there is no
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tear gas you're fine. >> i'm nervous about you getting honked at in the street. >> please stay safe out there, griff. >> thank you, griff. >> we're keeping it safe. >> and we're going to be able to go back to dixville notch. how many people vote there? ten? >> we've got data. >> they're tabulating. they're very careful at tabulating. >> this is what the decision desk is like. >> do you know would i met today? nicole pence. what a lovely young woman. and several members are getting ready to go to trump tower tomorrow night for that party. as they did the electoral votes over there. hard to overstate the anniling force. >> what does that mean? >> hardened like feel that an
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election like this is for a family. i have seen families brought together and broken apart in this refiner's fire to carry analogy forward. you can see how this shared experience, because it is not just physically exhausting but emotionally. you're everywhere and your life gets up rooted if you're the running mate, right sf. >> or the children. >> exactly. >> chelsea clinton said today she's, if i get this right, fiercely and ridiculously proud to be her mother's daughter. >> well -- >> at the end, here she is. it comes down to tomorrow night. >> you look at chelsea clinton. she has led an utterly abnormal life. she went from being a 12-year-old governor's daughter in arkansas to being the first daughter and having to have braces on national tv. >> i think she turned out okay. >> yes. >> do we have results here? from dixville knox?
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>> clinton four, trump, two. >> there are four more votes to go. >> you'll get it. >> as it happens. >> the other thing we wanted to talk about before bringing in our panel, you're going to talk about something called variance. >> yes. >> the difference between what the polls said the night before and the results. >> right. >> do you want to run through that? we have all the way back to 2000. >> yes. we do. i would -- it's interesting. i would like to talk about that. >> i know you did. >> i love variance. we've been telling you this whole -- this is our second to last show. >> i know. >> and ultimate. >> do you want to ask me what that means? >> but the, as we've been saying the polls are usually right but that come was a caveat which is now that they're wrong. >> now you tell us. >> the final result is not going
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to be exactly -- we're in the going to talk about polling today. it's election day. we don't want to influence the outcome. we don't want confusion there is real data coming in unless it's real data right there. until tonight at 7:00, when the first polls close, we're not going to talk about polling data. >> zip. >> but we're going to talk about variance. >> that having been said, the numbers for donald trump is about 3 or 4 points behind hillary clinton in an average nationally. that is our final half time report average. so looking back, what was it in the past? if we look at what do we have first? 2012? okay. looking at 2012, you can see the difference there. that it was fairly close, this was the final poll average versus outcome. >> i don't think people remember that romney and obama were as close as they were going into that election.
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>> right. what happened is that romney went down, obama went up. that is how obama went from a half point advantage to almost a four-point advantage. >> i see, okay. >> that is the variance. >> okay. okay. >> it squiggles at the end. let's take a look at 2008. obama went down? >> up a little bit. >> everybody went up just a little bit. >> mccain went up substantially. >> not enough. >> not enough. and let's go back to 2004. this is good. you're going to enjoy this. i predict. bush went up substantially. and so did kerry. but not enough. it's the thing about is it enough? kerry was trailing slightly at the very end. he did go up but not enough. the grand daddy of them all. 2000. i love this one. woah, nellie. george w. bush did go up but
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albert r gore junior or whatever, 3.1 points. the point being, you see in each of these cases that both of these candidates are going to go up. they go up a bit. the question is, who has got more, as i said on "the kelly file" yesterday, go go juice. you have to have enough go go juice. that carries you over the edge. >> can you get that in a can? >> you can. it's got tarine like red bull. my point is that there are missing trump voters. there are missing hillary clinton voters, too. what we're going to find out today at about 6:00 or 7:00 is who has got more go go juice, who is going to finish stronger right there with that last little bit. there are two scenarios that are likely. >> okay. >> donald trump wins by a point. hillary clinton wins by seven points. those two outcomes within this range of variance, that we saw
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the largest variance ever was three points, the largest variance. if you put 3.3 points on her and he doesn't get any, and if he wins by a tenth of a point. >> have you to tune in to watch fox news channel. >> do we have final results in dixville notch? >> they're 4-2. >> used to be 10. >> one abstention. not predictive, but interesting nonetheless. >> there is lady gaga coming up. our panel joins us, they've been working overtime, getting ready to bring you wall to wall coverage and it's going to be huge. >> huge.
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midnight rallies in one corner, lady gaga. in the other, mike pence. let's bring in this week's panel to talk about that and more. katie babic, reid galen, lots going on. are you excited? it's election day. you paid it. does anyone know what 596 times marks? >> the beginning of time. >> the day ted cruz says he's going to run for president. >> in april. >> yes. yes.
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>> he had the little thing. >> he had marco had flawless launches. packed auditorium. this stuff. and jeb bush did his with a facebook post. >> yes. i remember. >> so it was very techie. >> i remember that. >> yes. >> and then, you had donald trump. >> yes. >> he's like here i am. and i'm going to win it. >> i wanted to look at one thing. donald trump is on his way to grand rapids. >> it's shaped like this. >> let's take a trip down memory lane of what happened in michigan last spring. >> oh, oh. >> i just want to take this
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opportunity to thank the people of michigan who kind of repudiated the poll that's had us 20, 25 points out. repudiated the pundits that said bernie sanders was not going anywhere. >> julie? >> yes. >> bernie sanders wins the primary in michigan. now we hear hillary clinton goes to michigan to an interesting part of the state to try to shore up the vote there. is that real? >> i think she's running out of places to go. because if michigan and pennsylvania don't vote early. she's going where you have the bulk of the voters. >> so she wants michigan the same way ohio wanted pennsylvania. i don't believe either michigan or pennsylvania are in play. this would be impressive. 1984 was the last time.
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>> now, wait a minute. wait a minute. >> go ahead, stirewalt, prove me wrong. >> michigan is a democratic state but not by a lot. president obama outperforms typical democrats in michigan because of a surge in african american support in wayne county. you know, the issue, katie is that that is not going to be for hillary clinton. instead of 12 points for barack obama in 2008, you're going to see a john kerry side. you're expecting a john kerry size, a blue state, but not by much. >> win to win? >> yes. >> and a win is a win. yes. yes. >> and i think that the trump campaign saw to bernie sanders supporter vote. >> yes. >> they decided and trump said this multiple times with stuff we've seen at dnc, votes should be coming to vote for him. and there is a lot of people on that side of the democratic ticket who are very bitter about
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the things they've seen come out. trump thinks based on his internals the race is getting closer whether he'll be able to close out a win there is going to be tough, i think, this late in the game. i was in minneapolis a couple weeks ago and also, milwaukee, it's not really trump country at this point. i don't think it's going to be. the state of michigan might be, but it's going to be tough. >> what about the notion there are bernie sanders voters that did not like hillary clinton and donald trump said i'm going to make a play for them. has he been able to bring them over? >> i think the difference between a bernie sanders voter and donald trump voter is that they may be angry at the system but have different ways of expressing it. the way donald trump talks about minorities, latinos, african americans, is something i think most of those millennial voters are not a fan of. those older, long term liberals,
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hippies from the 60s don't want much to do with it. and coalar counties around detroit have been more conservative probably have a great deal of center right women who want very little to do with donald trump. >> when looking around the country and look at the states and we're talking about -- the county i grew up is is going to vote for trump probably. we have dislocation of the manufacturing, information age, information dislocation you have older voters and white voters and guys and gals are fed up. when i look at the states, i look at pennsylvania and i see why pennsylvania is a tough pull for republicans every time. especially in those suburbs outside of philly. i look at michigan. mccomb county, going northeast
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and also, over to that section of the state north of flint. times have been tough. democrats there probably not too happy. >> you look at flint, do you envision anymore who has tremendous anger of the republican governor in michigan saying i know our water crisis in flint has been awful, i'm going to vote for trump. >> donald trump thinks he has to try to reach out to african american voters. if he goes from 7% of the vote to 9% of the vote does that help him? and hurt her? >> maybe. i don't know. let's not attorney general yet about michael moore, from flint, michigan talking about how you shouldn't underestimate donald trump for months now. and also, we saw the woman who asked hillary clinton the question, that donna brazil sent her about flint, michigan what they're going to do. she's saying based on the
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cheating in that question should be disqualified for running for president. >> we're going to have more, you're looking at the dualing rallies, it's lady gaga in raleigh, north carolina and mike pence is warming up for donald trump who is going to be there for his final rally of this race. coming up, we've been talking about the presidential race, but there are a lot of senate hopefuls running out those final hours. the balance of power, where is it going to go? next. >> yeah! it's endless shrimp at red lobster. with another new flavor you never saw coming... grilled, glazed korean bbq shrimp. and try as much as you want of flavors like new parmesan peppercorn shrimp. just come in before it ends.
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or whether it goes out of the window. >> if we vote tomorrow, hillary clinton will win. but, if we stay home, or we may around with a pro tem vote, hillary clinton's opponent will win. >> new, it's up to the american people to dlif the justice we deserve at the ballot box tomorrow. >> that is earlier today, you can see rallies are still going on. some senate and house candidates are in the fight of their lives as well. as those rallies are going on, a friend said he's left a grand rapids site and there are thousands of people waiting to get in. that is a big night and there is some hand waving going on. >> lady gaga put a squirrel on
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her head, looks like. >> it's a new thing. we're going to try that for you for the last show, next sunday. just be ready for that. >> all right. >> we're going to talk about senate races because they're of great interest. what will happen in washington will have to work with a new senate makeup. let's take a look at new hampshire. >> new hampshire has been an up and down tight race for weeks now. kelly ott has been down, now she's up and running against the governor of new hampshire. they have similar track records on number of different issues maggie hassan has not. kelly ayott played a role on keeping check on the obama white
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house and interestingly when distancing herself from donald trump we saw a chamber of commerce ad come out saying make sure you reelect kelly ayott to put a check mark next to hillary clinton's presidency. >> we have donald trump who is going to make a final rally speech of his 2016 campaign. he's in michigan. and the crowd is going crazy. >> what a journey it's been for him. these rallies have been incredible. are we going to take a listen to him? >> wow. thank you.
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thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. you know, we needed to stop about 12 minutes ago. and look at this place. this is incredible. we don't need jay-z or beyonce. we don't need jon bon jovi or lady gaga. all we need is great ideas, to make america great again. that is all we need. so it's now, officially... >> that is donald trump and his final rally. rallies have been incredible for him. >> reid, i want to ask you
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something. we know that having said that people at rallies are impressive. it's not the same as florida. so yes. when trump's orders say his rallies have 10,000 people, she has 500 we know that doesn't mean what they think it means. >> but it means something. right? >> sure. >> it does mean something. all of this stuff translates to television. the guys setting up this stuff have been there for a couple days doing this stuff so trump can be there 20 minutes to show this enthusiasm. a lot of the events are used to encourage voters to get out the vote. i guarantee with every clinton rally they've been utilizing data to turn out. >> is rnc picking up that slack? if the trump campaign isn't doing it?
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>> compared to what secretary clinton is using which is what president obama built over eight years, i'd rather have what she has. >> talking about this incredible important is what you said. the clinton campaign, especially since the obama campaign is over. and people are doing it. what you do is you poll where voters are likely to vote. and they're able to identify and get them to the polls. >> but kate? >> yes? >> there is something -- they keep him on the road. it's a thing to do. it's good for candidates. >> it's good for him and he likes it. there is a reason he's looking at his business prospects. the clinton campaign made something like a million phone calls. a million calls.
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and they're doing it to targeted voters they know will turn out. >> my mom is so ready for the phone to stop ringing. she had to unplug it. >> dana can't get through. >> we'll tell you what as we continue. here is what you need to do mr. and mrs. america. go to foxnews.com and listen and subscribe. you can sign up for fox news half time report. it's our daily news letter, it will make your in box smell minty fresh. "bigger place?" "hi!" "yeah, let me check my score too." "try credit karma. it's free." "check out credit karma today."
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look at up state new york. >> that is donald trump and he does not like hillary clinton. i don't know where you heard that. but it's true. >> he's making his final case, he's in michigan. >> and we're in new york where it is election night. it is election day, already. we made it. we lived, dana. >> so excited. >> now, i'm so excited because it's time for i tell you what data dodge. we roll around in poll numbers and demo graphy and have fun. but what if we talked about actual humans? that would be interest something. >> better than rolling around. >> like a dog and a dead deer. okay. so we're going to talk about the counties that are bell weathers. do you know what a bell weather is? >> i do. >> the male sheep that leads a flock home. >> i didn't know that. >> bell weather -- >> cattle ranch? >> yes. >> so bellweather leads the
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flock home. these are counties and states that are bell weathers for how this state voted in four cycles. i want you to know about it. this is florida like the mac daddy of swing counties on the end of the i-four corridor. used to be republican. used to be republican. and then, got younger and more diverse and more democratic. that is why john mccain and mitt romney struck out. then, i want you to look at miramac county, new hampshire. this is close, close, close. this is suburban boston. this is the southern tier of new hampshire. this matters a lot. for donald trump's folks because he's got to win over enough suburbanites there. >> didn't you tell me it is hard
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to poll in new hampshire? >> they have boston cell phone numbers. >> northampton east, and this is the first part of america's west belt. this is where bethlehem steel shut down in 2004. times have not been good there. this is al gore won and where donald trump is go owing do it in pennsylvania it's going to be in a place like that. now, nevada, i love, the biggest little city in the world, reno. it's a weird mix of california emigrees. and jefferson county, colorado. >> i know jefferson county, colorado. >> what do you want to say about it? >> they have a great fair. i've been there has a kid.
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>> you can get an elephant ear there. >> absolutely. >> and i know, saginaw county, michigan. this is what we're talking about. it's just north of detroit. it's up there in the part of the state that is where reagan won. there is a large black population up there. and that is probably why democrats are spending time there. i want you to take a look at caswell county, right on the line in the state that is right on the line. so close. this is the one that looks like the rest of north carolina. it's got the right mix and it has economic disruption that donald trump capitalized on against trade and other things. >> is that why romney won there in 2012? >> it's close. so close. sandusky downohio.
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whiter, whiter, 94% white. obama did well there. and he's not doing that well in these parts of northern ohio now. that is why donald trump is doing well there. cedar county. iowa. this is quad cities in between the two. herbert hoover's native county. >> obviously. >> al gore won by two counts. >> wow. was there a recount? and last, my favorite, wisconsin, this is america's dairiland. these are socialists, democratic former labor people. these are the people who donald trump is going to win, these are kind of bernie people, these are white votes, these are farmers
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with an industrial foot print there. >> okay. come on. >> and let's -- >> hillary clinton is walking out with bill clinton and i think chelsea is there. yes. this is her final rally of the campaign. they're in raleigh, north carolina. >> we're going to be right back. i'll tell you what news quiz is coming up. we'll see if the panel has been paying attention this week. >> it's going down.
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test. test test. test. test test. test. test test. test. test test. test. test test. test. test test. test.
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welcome back. almost busted. i thought we were going to have music. it is time for our panel, time for the panelists to be tested. >> to take the news quiz. it is our patented, never improved upon perino and stirewalt. the first question goes to katie. >> she is nervous. >> no, she is not. cool as cucumber. former attorney general janet reno passed away on monday at
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78. she was first woman to serve in the post and served longer in the post than all but one who i'm not going to ask you who that was. she made her. was it little rock, arkansas, miami, florida, or boston. a, little rock. b, boston. c, boston. >> was miami, dade county. she is from the everglades. >> goes to reid. legalize recreational marijuana is on the ballot in five states today. california, massachusetts, maine, arizona and nevada. in how many states is recreational reefer already legal. 15, 2, 4 or none. >> that would be c, four. >> nice. >> are you working on the issues? >> or are you high right now. >> you live in california, you can't get very far.
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>> interesting. >> strong play, my friend. >> i'm impressed. >> our final news -- those states are alaska, oregon, washington and colorado. the district of columbia is not a state. final news quiz question goes to julie. an aero mexico flight to mexico you city was given priority landing status on sunday for what reason? an attempted highjacking. so soccer fans could make it to end of a key match. c, giant snake. d, explosive lavatory. >> only because it lived my nightmare. c, snake. >> let's see what it was. daily double. >> can you imagine? do we know if the snake was in the luggage or in the plane? >> that's the worst part. someone tried to smuggle a snake on a plane, guys. >> you think that's what it was? >> they were smuggling it. >> was it a venomous snake?
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>> people were freaked out. >> you guys did well. >> i was the millennial asked about janet reno? >> why not. she is a trail blazer. >> you're no regular millennial. so with the polls closing in a little more than 16 hours, what will tomorrow night look like? that's what we wanted to talk about, right? when are we going to know stuff? >> you want to talk about that? i like that. >> it is almost 1:00 in the morning. >> did i borrow your notes? >> sure. >> all right. somewhere in here we have this. oh, sorry, i almost looked at the wrong thing. i almost saw my trivia question. basically, let's look at the poll -- first, let's look when the polls close across the country. as we're on the decision desk and we look through to see how things are going, we organize our lives into half hour increments across the country. you see polls closed at 7:00, and that's that little clutch. >> there's no way you know what is going to happen by 7:00. >> here is 8:00, you see the map starting to fill up.
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look at 9:00. so 7:00, 8:00 and 9:00, by 9:00 you have most of the vote in. now we're waiting for the west. let's look at the 10:00. these are all eastern times. and then 11:00. >> so michigan would be at 9:00? >> right. and alaska and hawaii also vote. no, no, i mean -- >> are you sure? >> no, they wanted to even out the field of stars. but so that's what time the polls close. what time will we know? what time will we be able to tell you that we have the decision desk will be able to make calls so the fox news channel can say, fox news can now predict the magic words, fox news can predict blank will be elected 45th president of the united states? >> you tell us. you're the decision desk. >> there's a graphic. let's see we have actual information. in 201211:17 p.m. 2008, 11:00 p.m., and i suspect probably
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what we'll see here, in the 11:00 hours when the west coast states close. in 2004 because john kerry was kind of a nerd, 11:19 a.m. the next day. we knew, but after the 2000 experience the democrats were gun shy about conceding stuff and john kerry waited but we knew. >> that was interesting, but before we can get to that we have to take a last look at the rallies. donald trump in grand rapids and hillary clinton is in raleigh, north carolina. we're going to take a little listen to that. he wasn't with us in philadelphia where he is bruce springsteen sang and jon said, well, hey, i want to go down to raleigh and so here he is! you know, between now and the time -- >> go ahead. >> as we head into our break, if you heard our podcast, now we ask our viewers where do you
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find america this week. you can be a part of our election night coverage. it is super cool. if you voted or are getting ready to vote, post a picture of yourself, your friends, your family, your dogs. >> definitely your dog. >> on facebook, twilter or instagram with the #fox2016. do it show us who you are supporting and tell us why. post picture with the hashtag and see it on the fox news channel on election night in our brand-new super awesome studio from space. if you are taking a picture of the ballot, make sure to check first -- >> don't get in trouble for our benefit. >> shannon breen would be sad if you went to jail for taking a ballot selfie. we'll be right back. donald trump campaign buttons
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(chanting) love trumps hate! did you happen to see this dog out in the parking lot? i am trying to find his owner? he's really really sweet. is he a stray? he was running with a leash so he's obviously someone's so we're looking for the owner. you're a hilary supporter are you?
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i am are you a trump supporter? and you're wearing.um, huh... (laughs) i am hey there little fella' what a beautiful dog. michael would you like to pet the dog? aw look at that. i have my own dog so i wouldn't want to have my dog lost or anything. yeah definitely, i have a golden retriever too. i've been a dog lover forever. i am too! dogs don't criticize. if this was my golden retriever he'd be laying on my feet right now. oh look that's my dog. there she is. oh my god! i love that apparently when it comes to dogs there are no political parties. i didn't ever expect myself to agree with a trump supporter.
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we do agree that we love dogs and dogs love us. i think fundamentally if you talk person to person they care about each other and they care about kids and they care about dogs and unfortunately that's not what gets out in the media things like this give us hope that we can all find common ground in some places and that was what we were just a part of. we all have our differences but everyone loves dogs.
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