join us, all of us and more on our election night coverage kicking off tomorrow at 6:00 eastern here on fox news channel and heading in to the wee hours of the night. that's "the story" for now on monday, the day before the mid-term elections. the story goes on an on. i'll see you back here tomorrow at 3:00 and on "special report" later tonight. take care, everybody. >> inflation is probably first and foremost for me. >> i think our inflation is going to increase. >> i think mark kelly is a better choice. >> dr. oz has my full support and vote. >> i'm be voting for john fetterman because he's a pennsylvanian. >> inflation and all of that, you know, has been hitting all of us. >> neil: you notice a pattern here? it is election.

voters are making it clear it's the economy, stupid. from the beginning, it appears to be hours before polls open in the united states. so which party can run away with it? as i said, the first polls up less than eight hours. we're all over it in georgia and in new hampshire, new york, pennsylvania, nevada, arizona, ohio, florida, so many races, so little time. so let's get right to it. very happy to have all of you with us. i'm neil cavuto, this is "your world." let's just say it is a rushed and frantic frenetic paced world. we begin in new hampshire where you'll find our hillary vaughn on what has turned out to be a real battle. hillary? >> hi, neil. this race has boiled down to two major issues, the cost of energy and the cost of things on food. things like eggs. we were at a diner stop in new hampshire with republican candidate don bolduc yesterday. this sign was on the door of the

diner. it read due to the rising cost of eggs, $1 will be added to every order with eggs. this is something that voters see everywhere they go here on top of the high gas prices they pay every time they fill up. senator hassan says she pushed president biden to release oil from the strategic petroleum reserves and that should have bought oil companies time to produce more. i asked her if she backed biden's threat to hike prices on oil companies if ney don't bring prices down. >> is that the answer, higher taxes to lower gas prices? >> at the end of the day, the oil companies have to have some incentive to serve their customers. they have a strangle hold. the hope was that the oil companies would use that time was to actually begin production out of these wells and increase the supply. they have refused to do that. >> retired general don bolduc

has made his campaign about heating and eating, a investigate for senator hassan is a vote for more of the same. >> she needs to say i'm going to work to reverse joe biden's energy policies. we got to put pressure on him. we need people down there that are going to do it. she's not going to change anything. she's not going to force that change. >> neil, as is new hampshire tradition, polls will open in dicksville notch at midnight. those are the first results that we'll get. a handful of votes does matter. as senator hassan has voted out, every day leading up to election day, she won the first time by just over 1,000 votes, a handful of votes can make a different here in the granite state. neil? >> neil: interesting to watch. thanks, hillary. a lot of democratic candidates might be blaming the oil companies for not drilling more and doing more and taking advantage of what is available to them. along comes the president of the

united states to say something that people have long suspected. that he's against drilling period. in fact, brags about it. lucas tomlinson with more. lucas? >> the president heads to maryland in a few hours. it's not considered a battleground state. last night the president resumed his war on fossil fuels. >> no more drilling. there is no more drilling. i haven't formed in new drilling. >> [question inaudible] >> that was before i was president. we're trying to work on that, get that done. >> it's not just drilling that biden says he's against. coal as well. speaking california friday, biden says he wants to shut that industry down, too. coal is responsible for 22% of this country's energy.

>> it's also now cheaper to generate electricity from wind. we're going to be shutting these plants down and having wind and solar. >> the white house says the president's remarks friday have been twisted to suggest a meaning that was not intended. he regrets it if anyone hearing those took offense. joe manchin says he took offense saying comments like these are the reason the american people are losing trust in president biden and seems his positions change depending on the audience and the politics of the day. karine jean-pierre was just asked about the coal comments. she said it was loud, hard to hear and said the president's words were twisted. >> neil: he said his words. they weren't twisted. sometimes when you hear that on the creative editing, but he said that. so i don't know, my friend. >> thanks very much. >> and the transcript is posted. >> neil: thanks, lucas. now you heard of rich edson. what is the latest, my friend?

>> good afternoon, neil. they're talking about what lucas was discussing there. the u.s. energy information agency says that pennsylvania is number 3 in coal production in this country. probably asking number 1 is wyoming. number 2 in west virginia. also in pennsylvania, you had former president obama, president biden, they were here campaigning for the democratic candidates. fetterman's campaign did not respond to a request for comment about the president's statement on coal. fetterman has said he supports fracking in a transition to green energy that preserves the union way of life citing natural guys workers. fetterman has been declaring his position on fracking after comments he made from 2018 when he opposed fracking. fetterman says he backs fracking with the right environmental controls. >> we support energy

independence and making sure we can never be held by a country like russia and making sure we produce as much american energy as possible. i fully support fracking. >> it was a weekend of presidents here in the common wealth of pennsylvania. former president donald trump was also here. he accused democrats of attacking fossil fuels. >> biden and the far left lunatics are waging war on pennsylvania energy, crushing pennsylvania jobs, gutting pennsylvania communities. >> now, here in this race and across the country, there's some criticism among democrats that democrats and the candidates have not been focusing enough on the economy. economic issues. the "new york times" has a report out that the democrats have spent nearly three times as much on ads focused on abortion rights than those discussing inflation. that's according to a media tracking firm ad impact. as for the polling going on here, john fetterman had a

pretty substantial lead over the summer that has really narrows now to a race that is within the margin of error. back to you. >> neil: rich, i keep keep up with the presidents and former presidents. it's like a marvel movie. usually they end with explosions. thanks. rich edson in pittsburgh, pennsylvania. all right. i want to go to mark meredith in dayton. in ohio is where president trump will be making the rounds trying to close some important deals there as well. mark? >> neil, good afternoon to you. tonight we'll see the ohio senate republican candidate j.d. vance basically plead with soup porters of former president trump to show up at the polls. that's because his race, the senate contest, remains close. vance, who is a first-time politician is facing off the long-term democratic congressman tim ryan who represents the youngstown area. the congressman has been going after moderate voters and also trying to appeal to republicans that are skeptical of vances credentials.

>> we're going in to republican counties and when you see the returns come on tuesday, you're going to see us pull a lot of votes out of these counties because we went there, we listened. >> but j.d. vance insists that tim ryan is lying about his record. if he were to be sent to the senate, he would be a rubber stamp for the biden's agenda. trump's event could be crucial to a victory tomorrow. >> the main effect of this rally is to drive turn-out. we'll have a great time. a lots of enthusiasm. the take-away from voters is tomorrow is the big day, we have to get out to the polls and vote. >> in addition to campaigning with trump, we'll see most of the republican establishment on the stage tonight here at the dayton airport. that is interesting. it's the exact opposite strategy that we've seen from tim ryan's campaign. he's campaigned mostly on his own and shunned the national democratic party saying he wants to run his own race. it's interesting to see if it pays off or not.

neil? >> neil: we'll know team, maybe. we'll see what happens. want to go to andra smith. she's keeping track how this looks across the country in key races she following. hi, sandra. >> sandra: hi, neil. happy to kick into a state with the economy is king. first up, i want to take you to what we're seeing as far as the actual race in real clear politics. the average does show j.d. vance at 51%. tim ryan is polling 43.5%. so to tim ryan's point there, he's in some of these swing counties trying to chip away and grab any of those republican voters that he can to try to obviously narrow the margin here. when i say the economy is king, it's king. top issues in ohio, 47% say it's the economy, stupid. right? so this is the biggest messaging that your hearing from both candidates. threats to democracy, double

digits, abortion access and health care. when i dig in, you'll see why the candidates are visiting the key counties. when you look at the presidential results, eight points that donald trump won in 2020. the key counties where tim ryan visiting akron, a swing county that joe biden won in 2020. 54% of the victory there, 44% to donald trump. but neil, you go down to some of these counties where donald trump is spending time for j.d. vance. and you can see why. they're trying to chip away at some of the blue voters there. president biden won montgomery county, 50.3% in 2020. you're looking at a 6,000 vote dirns in that country. you go back out to the rest of the state. white working class voters all about the economy. look at this narrow margin of

victory that president trump pulled off there in 2020. 54%. these are big spending races. tim ryan has been one of the biggest fund raisers. polls will close at 7:30 tomorrow night, neil. we have this as far as our fox news power rankings. ohio senate race lean republican right now. this is going to be one to watch tomorrow night, neil. >> neil: it's amazing. you're not going to be sleeping. >> sandra: the couch it is for me. >> neil: thanks, sandra. she mentioned the economy. it is on the minds of those in wall and broad. the dow jones is racing a head in the likes of a divided government. they're betting on the house going republican and possibly the senate as well. the white house will remain under a democrat, joe biden. but there's some promising news on the earnings front.

the more that come in, consumers are under enormous pressure but still buying. we'll see if that continues. meantime, it's not just republican versus democrat. sometimes you get a feeling when it comes to the next election, it's republican versus republican. the latest on the -- i don't know if you call it the don and ron show after this. ♪ all across the country, people are working hard to build a better future. so we're hard at work helping them achieve financial freedom. we're proud to serve people everywhere, in investing for the retirement they envision. from the plains to the coasts, we help americans invest for their future. and help communities thrive.

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>> what floridians want is somebody that has their back, not focusing on running for president in 2024. >> i know what ron desantis has said of you. i don't need to replay video that says you're just a stubborn old donkey. it's gotten personal and nasty. if you were to lose, governor and i know you don't envision that happening, what do you do after this? >> well, i'm going to win. i'm not worried about it. you're right. it's not something that i envision. >> neil: one thing we discovered, charlie crist will get married after the campaign. whether he gets elected to that

spot and what would be probably one of the nation's biggest upsets if that were to happen. there is some tension convention going on right now just between desantis and the former governor himself, now former congressman, charlie crist, but what is happening with desantis and that other prominent very popular republican, donald trump. steve harrigan has more from tampa on that story. steve? >> that's right, neil. the race on the ballot is desantis versus crist. the other race is certainly getting a lots of attention, a lot of chatter. that would be for the presidential election with desantis and trump. they held competing rallies sunday. trump in the south with a number of candidates. desantis campaigning on the west coast. trump has begin to openly mock desantis in pennsylvania over the weekend.

he called him ron desanctimonious. >> governor desantis is laser focused and the people from florida are benefitting from that. >> some numbers people will be watching for a future battle with the former president and desantis. if desantis wins florida, can he top president trump's margin in the 2020 presidential election, 3.4% and can he carry heavily hispanic democratic counties like miami-dade that hasn't been done by a republican in 20 years. if he does so, it would be that florida is moving away from a swing state to a red state. >> it's fascinating watching that evolution. thanks, steve. let's go to lee carter, republican polster also very good at history. you know, comparing notes on things. i realize wait a minute. she's like half my age.

what does she know? good to see you. let me ask you a little bit about this tension between the former president and the florida governor. how real is it? how palpable is it? >> there's a real tension between them. trump wants to be the one to own the show. he loves the spot light. i don't think he likes to share it very much. so trump is out there, you know, speaking on behalf of lots of candidates when he feels like he can lift them up and he can be the shining star. when it comes to desantis, it's a different story. >> neil: is that because desantis is his biggest threat? >> i think in part. i think he can't help himself. it is who he is. what is interesting to me, he puts his finger on what you have it. his nicknames are hilarious. the timing is terrible. i don't think the time before the race happens or right before the election day is a time for him to do it. i'm not that concerned about it

in florida. desantis will still pull it out. i think in the long run, it's impossible to say what this means for 2024. >> neil: let me ask you about that. you heard the former president made it clear, he was telling brian kilmeade, any other republican that considers running is an act of disloyalty. you've heard that. >> sure. >> neil: you think some republicans will be put off by that? you think ron desantis would? >> there's lists of candidates, 12, 14 folks -- >> neil: they would run regardless? >> i think so. there's a lot of questions about donald trump right now. it's a long way away. i'm sure we were sitting down talking in june of 2015 and "washington post" article about five reasons why jeb bush was going to be the next president of the us. donald trump had not entertained

a run yet. we'll see who captures the hearts and mind of republicans. republicans have to focus on the races in front of them. donald trump doing stuff like this is disruptive to what self trying to do right now. focus on the two issues that are most important to voters. inflation and crime. democrats are making the case this is about a threat to democracy and democracy will be over should republicans take over the house and senate. >> neil: ken griffin, the billionaire investor, has committed to ron desantis. he likes the idea of him possibly being the presidential candidate. i'm sure there might be others. where do you see the money guys playing their bets? >> a lot of the money guys are putting their money on desantis at this moment. it's not just because of who trump is, there's all kinds of polling that said people are ready for the next generation of leaders. this generation, it's time to go. desantis is out there and he's done a lot of great things whether you like him or hate him a lot of things that are controversial that he's done.

look what he's done when it comes to hurricane relief. he has the bridge to sanibel done. fpl is up and going. he's talking about education and the issues most important to voters. when ideal test his messaging, he performs. when people hear him talk, he's a man of action, not just words. so i think he's somebody that needs to be watched. >> neil: you and i also talked during the break, fellow new jerseyians whether there's the kind of quiet surge that we didn't appreciate a year ago. when the new jersey governor looked like a 20-point favorite to win re-election and he won by one or two points. is there anything like that going on behind the scenes that we don't appreciate? >> yeah, i absolutely think there is. there's a strategy among democrats right now to say that republicans are the ones that a fear mongering. governor hochul talked about anybody concerned about crime as 60 a data denier.

they talk about republicans as fear-based dog whistling. a lot of shame going on saying if you're a republican or if you're an independent leaning republican who cares more about the economy, kitchen table issues than you do about demo democracy, there's something wrong with you. there's disparaging remarks from hillary clinton and others and mainstream meamedia. if you look at a state like florida, lee zeldin has shifted the momentum to be about crime the last two weeks. he's taken a big lead -- not lead. he's still trying but he's really eaten in to that. >> neil: that issue is dominant in new york city where he's spending a lot of his team, most of his time campaigning. thanks, lee. lee carter catching up on that. lee mentioned what's going on in new york and the gubernatorial race. lee zeldin is making it clear crime is the issue and he's

pounding itm mercilessly. al essandra mcadams. we'll have more in a live report next. ty of life. that's why we recommend salonpas. it's good medicine.

>> neil: someone forgot to tell florida that there's another hurricane barrelling down. the latest for governor desantis to deal with after this. vo: it'. because covid vaccines just got a big update. just in time for everyone who works. with other people. just in time for... ...more togetherness. just in time to say “oh, you bet we'll be there!” because the updated vaccines can now protect against both the original covid virus and omicron. and that's a moment... we've all been waiting for.

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hasn't happened in 20 years. tell that to right now what's going on with lee zeldin and the surge he's making. crime is a big issue. for kathy hochul, it's a big worry. she's brought in the big guns to try to nail down that lead she has in some polls. but it's not a big lead. alexis mcadams in new york city with more. alexis? >> hi, neil. you're not crazy. it is a slim margin here that people are talking about. it's much closer than expected. it's a deep blue state. people would not think it's this close this late in the game. crime as you mentioned, the hot topic. when you talk to new yorkers, they don't feel safe. they don't want to take the subway. those are the issues in this election. if you ask some democrats like former president bill clinton, he says it's all spin and the republicans are just trying to scare you. listen. >> lee zeldin makes it sound like kathy hochul gets up every

morning, goes to the nearest subway stop and hands out billy clubs and baseball bats to everybody that gets on the subway. >> yeah, but congressman zeldin says it's not funny. and zeldin has focused his campaign around the surge in crime in new york. he has a lot of examples to pull out especially the subway shootings and stabbings that he talked about today at one of the subway stops. he's blaming governor hochul's policies for the lawlessness around new york. kathy hochul has campaigned on taking guns out of the streets. this morning the governor slammed her opponent saying he doesn't have a real plan to curb crime. we go the latest poll that we've been talking about here. that shows kathy hochul with a four-point lead over congressman zeldin. we saw both candidates back out here in the city today

campaigning. they were both at subway stops but it's been a focal point as we continue to talk about crime. zeldin continues to hammer it home. experts say the polls show it's new yorking. >> neil: his surge is working. now to josh kraushaar, fox news contributor. all i ask you, can lee zeldin, can a republican pull this off in new york state? >> what is remarkable, it feels like a mayoral race. zeldin, a republican spending time at subways in new york city. vice president harris came to manhattan. >> neil: why is that? all you need is a few percentage points in new york city. >> that's what making this race interesting. usually if you're a republican and you're going to do well in new york, you do really well in the suburbs.

you run up the score upstate. if zeldin someones this, it's because he's making inroads with hispanic voters in new york city, maybe a little bit among african american voters in new york city. eric adams coalition that was so centered on worries over crime in the major's race, if he can get 35% in new york city, which is hard to do for a republican, but that is the goal from his campaign, we could have a big surprise in new york. >> neil: it's been 20 years to your point. there's history to a republican getting elected three times in a row. george pataki in 94 and 98 and 2002. it's hard. typically the map is democrats have the advantage. they run up a huge lead in

he doesn't have the same political playbook that george pataki did. hochul has been tone deaf when it comes to talking about crime and understanding this is a big issue. >> neil: let's look at the race and the aggregate across the country. not only governorships like this but you sense of the senate and the house. i like to pick your brain on where you see momentum. i talked to lee carter a year ago and governor murphy in new jersey seemed to have an insurmountable lead. i wonder if that 15, 20 point lead that he had had more

republican potential voters known that it was a horse race and that he would ultimately win by a couple points, many more would have voted. we don't know. your thoughts now. >> look, pennsylvania, georgia and nevada, those are the -- all of these senate battlegrounds are very close. the mood seems to be favoring republicans. you tend to see the late-breaking voters that decide at the last minute, they go against the party in power. the mood is favoring republicans right now. you have lots of money powelling into the battle grounds and they're coming down to the wire and we'll probably have to wait awhile to see who wins the senate majority. the house looks much more favorable for the republicans. >> neil: all right. so open judgment here, but do you think the president loses the house, maybe even the senate that he would pivot, do a bill clinton and pivot? >> that's what a lot of political pundits and advisers

would tell him to do. but he could have pivoted to the middle when he got elected as president. he had a big coalition, an anti trump coalition. he won because of moderate suburban voters. he didn't listen to the voters that wanted to calm things down. didn't want the spending that took place early on. he may not -- the bigger question is doesn't biden run if he gets defeated. >> neil: one race at a time. thanks, josh.josh already had his six pack of red bull. we'll see what happens. we have more coming up including right now what the president is doing not only after the election results, but before. he might have tipped his hand how he really feels about fossil fuels and how he really feels about drilling. sometimes presidents can say the darndest things when the mic is hot and no one is editing it after this. ♪

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♪ >> no more drilling. there's is no more drilling. i haven't formed any new drilling. >> [question inaudible] >> no, i -- >> [question inaudible] >> that was before i was president. we're trying to work on that, get that done. >> neil: all right. the president was responding to a protester at this events where he outlined clearly, we didn't edit any of that, no more drilling. that's that, end of story. it's that kind of statement unequivocal, black and white, quite clear, that has galvanized many of the president's critics that he says one thing and doing another. we're not here to target the

president but to understand maybe that's why oil companies are leery of expanding or doing anything in an environment where you have an administration that doesn't like you very much. that does not apply to austan goolsbee. the former economic adviser for barack obama. austan, i talked to a number of people, both sides of the aisle. you heard what joe manchin has to say about the president's comments on coal. he can't believe him. is that a problem? >> well, i couldn't tell -- i couldn't hear what the person was saying when he was referring to the -- what drilling was stopped. was it about something specific? i know if you look at the drilling data, oil production for 2022 looks like it's going to be the second highest ever of all times in the united states. so the argument that there is no drilling going on is kind of disproven in the data.

>> neil: that was from the second year of the trump administration, that's the record, of course and then we went into covid and all sorts of reason for what happened afterwards. the reason why i mention this, there's this notion that the president might be sending signals but when it comes to the economy itself, he is not really responding in a way that could be helpful to the party. hence, they bury the guy. your old boss, barack obama, is everywhere. but not the president. what do you make of that? >> yeah, that's kind of a laundered tradition. the first mid-term goes badly for the president. >> neil: no doubt. i remember your boss was all over the country in his mid-terms as presidents are. >> no, no, i don't -- that's now how i remember it. i was there. i remember president obama being willing to go to battleground states. as i used to joke, all the battleground areas says he

doesn't need to come here. don't mention my name. don't say that he knows me -- >> neil: are you surprised me -- let me ask you. you're a economic adviser and he was dealing with the controversy in his first mid-term, barack obama, losing 40 seats because of the healthcare act and finalizing and that that was deemed controversial. there's other issues to be fair. this president can't seem to get a handle on that palpable rage. do you think if he were to have a rough day tomorrow, democrats lose the house, potentially the senate, he would pivot? he would acknowledge that he got a shellacking? >> i think he would acknowledge that he got a shellacking if he gets one. i anticipate for trump, for clinton, obama, for a lot of presidents, the first mid-term is a rough go.

i actually it's going to be a rough go tomorrow. i think president biden would acknowledge that. my view of presidential terms is most of the legislation you're going to pass, you pass in the first one to 1 1/2 years. the biden folks have a record that they can show of what they did. i think the idea of the pivot kind of dating from clinton that we're going to try to rejuice the legislative apparatus and pass some bills in a bipartisan way, i don't know. i mean, what do you think? feels like our political environment is sufficiently divided that if there is a shellacking or a modest victory by republicans and they take the house and senate, i don't see no matter what joe biden says as president, i don't see the republicans going along and saying, oh, yes, let's do this together. >> neil: or vice versa.

how the president tipped his hand and fossil fuels or coal. so the doubts are removed. i found it odd the white house came to clarify those remarks as if they had been taken outs of contest. what we showed is exactly what he said. so do you think that the president actually did harm here signalling to the american people that even though we have plenty energy here, that he's not the guy that will tap it, like it or favor it and that's why the oil industry is saying the hell with it? >> i don't know. like i said, i couldn't hear. maybe you could hear what specifically the protester was asking about when he talked about the no drilling. the fact that oil production is the second highest year of all-time suggests that the argument that we're cutting the amount of drilling in the country is not really backed up in the data. >> neil: but sheer volume, by

population, it goes everybody. covid was a great disrespecter. >> it doesn't. it's not -- >> neil: those two years of co covid when everything stopped is not a herculean accomplishment, right? >> well, bouncing back from that is not. to go to the level of production that exceeds all levels other than one year in the trump administration, it is not like population. oil does not give birth to other oil on its own. it has to be pumped from the ground. i think to say anything about oil that sounds like restriction though when the price of gas is high and when inflation is as high as it's been in the united states and in other countries is definitely going to be unpopular. that's why i think -- >> neil: you might want to open it up and commit even more in this environment. try all in on everything. >> you might want to open up

more and for sure the perception is sticking your foot in it. >> neil: thanks, austan. wants to take you to georgia right now where there is that very, very tight race right now for senate. a little less so when it comes to the gubernatorial battle. that's where you find aishah hasnie. >> hi, neil. both candidates in this u.s. senate seat say that think georgia can avoid a run-offer. it will take high voter turnout on tuesday. i will take you live to their final push and some of their final shots. hi, susan. honey. yeah. i respect that. but that cough looks pretty bad. try this robitussin honey. the real honey you love, plus the powerful cough relief you need. mind if i root through your trash? robitussin. the only brand with real honeyand elderberry. this week is your chance to try any subway footlong for free. like the subway series menu.

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>> neil: i like to joke with aishah hasnie before she came on board with fox, the whole world turn upside-down. there were fighting on capitol hill. she's left at the epicenter of this battle in georgia with the latest there. aishah? >> i'm just minding my own business, making some bacon in macon. that's all i'm doing, neil. leave me alone. this senate race is down to the

wire, neck and neck. it's a state where if a candidate goesn't get more than 50% of the votes, it will head to a run-off in december. nobody wants that. that's why yesterday we saw former u.n. ambassador nikki haley telling herschel walker supporters, don't listen to this red wave. she's warning them. the pressure is on the gop to prevent a repeat of 2020. they don't want that. that's when georgia handed democrats the senate. hailey tried to get out the vote and took a big swing at senator raphael warnock on the open border and he did not like that. >> legal immigrants are more patriotic than the leftists these days. the only person that we need to make sure we deport is warnock. >> this is beyond the pale. herschel walker is demonstrating to you what kind of senator he would be based on the company

he's keeping. >> so voters may look past all of the jabs and pick a candidate that can fix the economy because neil, as you and i both know, inflation is the number 1 issue for voters here in georgia according to the most recent fox news polling. it's likely what drove a record 2.5 million early voters and keep in mind, senator warnock still has more favor with with independents so the g.o.p. has to get its base out tomorrow. >> neil: thank you very much. don't take it personally we like the fact that there's a whirlwind around there. in the peach state of georgia. let's go to chris anderson that work on the fox news decision desk. both geniuses so they can help make sense for this. it's amazing when i heard about the decision, it's actually real human beings. that kind of clarified that. so darren, let me get your sense of what you're noticing now as

far as momentum. we always looked at it and i raised this with every time you come, whether we're seeing anything akin to what we saw going on last year in new jersey to a lesser extinct in virginia. what are you seeing? >> man, it's the question, right? are we going to get any late breaking undecided voters moving disproportionally one way or the other? at this point, i'm not seeing anything more than you're seeing on this. it looks as of about two or three weeks ago, republican partisans were coming home. coming home in states where republican candidates had decisive primaries, arizona, georgia and pennsylvania and i think that was fuelling a lot of the momentum, right, people were reading into that that, you know, that was sort of the underpinning of this red wave. it's not clear that that's going to get some of these republicans over the finish line. the data are -- it's so close, neil, in arizona, pennsylvania and georgia, you know, we may look back -- on wednesday, we'll all be geniuses, right? on wednesday, we'll be able to say the fundamentals kicked in.

it was about the economy. right now, it looks so close, if people like chris and i are like we have some gut feels on some of these races. but empirically we're not seeing any strong evidence it's going one way or the other right now. >> neil: do you agree with that? it wouldn't take much. the math is more prohibitive for republicans capturing the senate. that would have been the argument from the beginning. that's a big, tall task here. how do you see it? >> i see four true toss-up races. we have arizona, nevada, georgia, pennsylvania. they are real tossups and often, you'll see a national momentum breaking one way or the other on election day. it could easily be all three or four go one way. you showed the real clear politics projection of 53 seats for republicans. i think that's certainly possible but i think the range of probability goes from dems adding one seat to republicans adding three. and republicans do have some candidate issues, i think, in at

least two, maybe three of those states where we see a lot more enthusiasm behind the democratic supporters of fetterman in pennsylvania, warnock in georgia, where their supporters are much more likely to say they're excited and enthusiastic to go out and support them than the republicans who are lagging by about 20 points in enthusiasm in those races. so whether or not that will overcome the larger national dynamic that has enthusiasm about tide among partisans may be a little ledge for republicans will be interesting to see. >> neil: guys, it's my perception. you guys are the experts. as you know, i read a prompter. i think i count. darren, one of the things that i look at is whether it's a watershed year, it could be. if you think about it, 1994 wasn't only the year of the gingrich revolution but the year that elected and saw george

pataki, republican elected in new york. he would go on in 1998 and 2002 to do the same. but 1994 was the epicenter of all of that at the time. it sounds to me like you both said, i don't want to put words into your mouth that this is not that. what do you think? >> i think that's fair. now, it could be and the races that i would look at are obviously the new york governor's race, the oregon governor's race. and then some of these peripheral races where the republicans could, you know, potentially pick up in the senate and maybe get to the kind of majority that, you know, chris was sort of alluding to. 53 or upwards. colorado, washington, and even that new hampshire race which i don't know if that's a toss-up right now but would it shock me if they pull it off? no, it wouldn't. neil, there are a few races. my sense right now is that republicans will win a couple of them but they'll probably come up a point or two short like the new jersey race last year, you

know, i think that's where we are. but, you know, predicting makes us all look dumb. we're going to back off that to the extent that we can. >> neil: i would be the first to leap at anything that you got wrong. kidding. chris, let me ask you, do you sense there is an issue that will galvanize people. sometimes it's when you see a statement, a pension statement, stock statement. sometimes it's a notice from the boss that they have to get back to work if they're lucky to get to work at all. any event like that that could be moving this behind the scenes. >> yeah, obviously, political gravity of the moment is with republicans as the party out of power. but, you know, the theory of how the democrats maybe hold the senate or, you know, lessen losses in the house is that defending democracy actually is something that is resonating with some voters or that the overturning of roe really changed something for people who might not typically come out and vote in a midterm.

and if that's the case, that could be something of a sleeper when we have been, you know, hearing this is a republican year. but maybe there's some underlying dynamics that are quietly working in democrats' favor. you know, we'll find out tomorrow. >> neil: find out tomorrow. thank you. great seeing you here. so we'll all come together tomorrow. in the meantime, that will do it for us here. here comes "the five." >> jeanine: hello, everyone. i'm judge jeanine pirro along with jesse watters, dana perino and dave gutfeld. it's 5:00 in new york city and this is "the five" live from fox square! >> jeanine: it's make or break time for both parties on the eve of the critical midterm elections. we're just hours away from voters casting their ballots to determine th