>> bob: his favorite magazine was nra monthly. >> eric: favorite saying? get 'er done. see you tomorrow, everybody. ♪ >> bret: house republicans roundly reject the president's demand to give in over the payroll tax cut. this is "special report." ♪ ♪ >> bret: good evening. i'm bret baier. surprise visit to the white house briefing room today. president obama insisted on a compromise, on two-month payroll tax cut extension. without it, he warned that the fragile economy could be in jeopardy. also in jeopardy, the lawmakers holiday plans. we have fox team coverage. ed menry has the white house response -- ed henry has the white house response to political back-and-forth, but mike emanuel has the latest on the maneuvering on capitol hill. >> the house sounded anything but bipartisan today. trading verbal jabs over the payroll tax holiday issues.

so president obama steps in to force the issue. >> let's be clear. right now, the bipartisan compromise that was reached on saturday is the only viable way to prevent a tax hike on january 1. >> moments later, the speaker responded he needs the president's help. >> president obama needs to call on senate democrats to go back in session, move to conference and sit down and resolve the bill as quickly as possible. >> earlyer the house voted 229-193 to set aside a senate two-month payroll tax holiday extension. and have a congressional conference negotiate a one-year extension. senate majority leader harry reid who passed a two-month plan said, "it's unconscionable that speaker boehner is blocking a bipartisan compromise that would protect the middle class families from the tax hike looming on january 1. a compromise that senator

mcconnell and i negotiated at john boehner's own request." leading republicans said they would be willing to keep pushing to find a better deal. >> there is no reason why the house, the senate, and the president cannot spend the next two weeks working to get that done. >> a senior democrat got emotional at the thought of taxes going up if lawmakers cannot work it out. >> where is your compassion? where is your heart? where is your soul? >> republicans agree it's important to provide certainty to job creators and the american people. >> our economy is too weak. >> the american people are struggling for too long, for congress not to work out our differences. >> after house democrats reduced the short-term senate plan, late in the day, fireworks flew between key leaders. >> is the house prepared to preclude eventually of 160 million people losing the tax cut? >> the house acted.

we have taken the position all people in the building have taken, so much better, more desirable for us to provide certainty to the working families of this country. >> the senate gone and house members on their way home, all could get recalled by the leadership but tonight there is not a clear path to a deal. >> bret: more with this on the panel. it may appear to be a fight between the house and senate. however, president obama today got involved. chief white house correspondent ed henry has that part of the story. >> the white house aides are taunting speaker boehner. they think he is on the defensive. charging that the only reason we didn't bring the senate bill up for a vote he knows it would have passed. >> after attending a ceremony marking return home of the u.s. troops and u.s. forces iraq flag, president obama used the sacrifice of the troops when he rushed in the daily white house press briefing unannounced. to rip in john boehner over

the payroll tax cut. >> when they fight together and sometimes die together they don't know and they certainly don't care who is a democrat and who is a republican. they do their job. they do it for something bigger than themselves. the people need to learn something from them. >> perhaps for the first time in the debate, the president has the upper hand on issue that republicans usually own. asked who they trust more on taxes, 46% said the president. 41% said the president. in a new "washington post"/abc news poll. when it comes to the all-important independent voters the president is beating the g.o.p. by incredible 17 points. which may explane why he is calling the shots. demanding boehner pass two-month extension approve by the senate. >> went ahead and did the right thing. i need the speaker, and the house republicans to do the same. put politics aside. >> before the president's surprise appearance, spokesman jay carney tried to drive a

wedge between boehner and senate minority leader mitch mcconnell. one of 39 republicans who voted for saturday's compromise. >> the president did not and should not be a marriage counselor between the senate republicans and the house republicans. >> the president added a faction of house republicans is blocking his agenda. a claim the white house uses frequentenly,ed a odds with the recent suggestion to cbs news, the fourth most successful president ever. >> i would put our legislative and foreign policy accomplishment in the first two years against any president with the possible exceptions of johnson, fdr and lincoln. you know, just in terms of what we've gotten done in modern history. >> the white house aid told me the president referred to modern history. though he mentioned abraham lincoln. to stop great depression, and healthcare reform are major achievements. >> bret: ed, thank you.

it's two weeks until iowa first of the nation caucuses and four of the republican candidates were today cig zagging the earn part of that state in an effort to make their pitch to potential voters. the country's first primary in new hampshire is just three weeks away. three of the other g.o.p. presidential hopefuls were in that state today. chief washington correspondent james rosen explains it's still almost anybody's race. >> he spent more time in iowa than any other g.o.p. presidential candidate. today it paid off when the staunchest critic of gay marriage won the endorsement of the president and ceo of the family leader. >> i saw him as a champion for the family in the u.s. house. i saw him as a champion for family in u.s. senate. it saw him as the champion for the family on the campaign trail. >> the windfall may not include foot soldiers as the family leaders board opted to remain neutral. still, the former pennsylvania senator told fox news this is

our moment. >> we are within a dozen points of first place. those folks in first place are not going up. we are. >> one man stood apart. >> texas congressman ron paul leads in iowa according to the real clear politics average of major polls. paul's tv ad equates mitt romney and newt gingrich with each other and with president obama. >> story of smooth-talking politicians. insider deals. games, he said, she said. >> a wide open race. anything can happen. ron paul is leading there now but it's wide open. >> newt gingrich was are caravaning across iowa. in a matchup against president obama. according to the rasmussen reports, gingrich steadily lost ground. >> merry christmas and happy new year. >> the pledge to run a positive campaign embodied in the youtube christmas greeting was sorely tested by his spokesman who apologized today after using a curse word

in a private chat with a reporter to describe mitt romney. and gingrich, himself, lashed out at romney not reining in the outside super pacs that have evidently hurt the speaker in the last three weeks. >> will you do that? it's illegal. super pacs have to be entirely separate from a campaign and candidate. >> texas governor rick perry toured iowa with bobby jindal and says he is the only non-washington figure left in the race. but he is still gaffe prone. outlining his flat tax, he said he would do a standard deduction. jindal reminded him it is still in the plan. >> thank you for correcting me on that, governor. not that i ever make a mistak mistake. >> michele bachmann scheduled for nine stops in iowa today. the congresswoman makes a state fire department three individual pastors who called her biblically qualified and capable leader. fox news confirmed that bachmann rebuffed a direct plea that she leave the race

and endorse rick santorum, a charge that vanderplat denies. >> more on this with the panel. thank you. housing and apartment construction urged in november. though 2011 is still shaping up as one of the worst years in history for home builders st. commerce department says the builders broke ground on more than 9% more homes than the previous month. stocks responded positively to the housing market. the dow added 337. s&p 500 gained 36. nasdaq closed # 1 ahead. the market seemed to like the news from europe today where spain saw the borrowing cost plummet in debt auction. indicating renewed confidence in the ability to hand the debt. the spanish parliament voted in conservative mariano rajoh, the new prime minister. he will formally be sworn in wednesday. a pancakes for yuppies program on you. that is later in the grapevine. up next, a mayor mulls letting

illegal immigrants vote. [ male announcer ] sometimes a hint is all the wrapping a gift needs. wait a minute...i... [ laughs ] [ male announcer ] the lexus december to remember sales event is here, but only for a limited time. see your lexus dealer.

>> bret: unemployment rates dropped in 43 states in november. reflecting a modest improve in the the nation's job market. the labor department says only three states saw increases in unemployment. while four showed no change. nevada again had the highest state unemployment rate at 13%. the national guard force working at the mexican board, the u.s. mexican border will be cut from 12troops to 300 in the coming year. homeland security and defense department officials say the remaining force will focus on the aerial surveillance mission using helicopters and airplanes. the mayor of new haven, connecticut no, stranger to:00, raising eyebrows again considering a proposal to the state legislature that gives illegal immigrants a very american right. shannon bream has the story.

>> as government, we have responseability to provide services and be responsive to people who live here. >> new hall of fame, connecticut, mayor john destefano it's fighting to see that 10 to 20,000 illegal immigrants get a right to vote in a local election. in a city that lost fewer than 16,000 vote votes in the last mayoral segment, the segment of the population could make a difference at the ballot box. he says the critics are wrong when he says he is violating the u.s. constitution. >> the same document for a long period of time precluded women and african-americans from voting. americans had a more expensive view of what it meant to belong to a community. >> that is a ridiculous comparison. you don't say that people who have broken the law to come to the united states and who have not complied to become citizens are the same as

african-americans or others. >> malloy says he is inclined to be supportive of protecting the right that come with the citizen. but he is not closing the door on the mayor proposal altogether. >> i am doing my best to honor ideas. nothing i read or heard thus far would convince me to support such a law. >> critics of the plan say the lawmakers who support the idea do so at their own risk. >> any legislature or governor that proposes and passed such a requirement would get angry response from voters at the next election. >> he sparked controversy when his administration refused to promote several white firefighters who outscored african-americans on promotion exams. the case was fought to the supreme court which ruled against the mayor. in washington, shannon bream,

fox news. >> bret: bill o'reilly asked president clinton about the issue of immigration his time in office. i have to give you a hard time on the border? ready you took office in '93. 4.5 million people coming across the border. you left office, 7 million people coming across the border. why couldn't you secure it? >> the economy got better. it's a long border. we had a fence in san diego. >> it worked. >> it worked pretty well. >> why didn't you finish it all the way through? >> for one thing, back then even the texas republicans didn't want it. >> you could have done it by executive order. >> i don't know if i could have or not. >> to see more of the interview tune in to the o'reilly factor tonight at 8:00 p.m. eastern on fox news channel. >> trade group representing u.s. airlines says there will be a 1% decline in holiday travel which it blames on the lingering economic concern. the flights will still be

full, because the airlines reduced the number of flights. a deadly snowstorm is slamming the great plains, with forecasters warning that holiday travel would be difficult, if not impossible. so far the storm is blamed for six deaths. still ahead, how the keystone xl pipeline is or is not a factor in the payroll talks. up next, leon panetta has tough talk for iran. my name's jeff.

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>> bret: secretary of state hillary clinton and the united nations rights chief blasted the military use of excessive force against unarmed protesters including women. hundreds of women marched in

to cairo's tahrir square today to protest. at least 14 people have been killed in five days of classes. iraq sunni vice president denied charges he ran a hit squad that killed government officials. al ashemi accused the shiite led government that issued arrest warrant for him monday of waging campaign of persecution. the transition of power from late north korea leader kim jong il to kim jong ii is being watched by the powers, none more closely than neighboring south korea. cargreg palkot is in seoul with the latest. >> the body of late leader kim jong il lay in state today in the same mausoleum his father is on display. the dictator 27-year-old son kim jong ii paid his respect. his own path to the top seem

assured. state media referred to him as a leader -- as "letter." north korea claims it's heart heart-felt. others aren't so sure. >> i attribute it and that is what they were supposed to do. i didn't notice any genuine tears. >> no threatening moves have been detected from the north, the fear is a young leader for muscle flexing military or lack of direction could lead to trouble. >> north korea has nuclear weapons, missiles. we need somebody in firm control. >> that is not right there now? >> it's not there right now. >> word of the death of kim jong il broke in south korea, noon local time monday. today, it was front page news. >> for sout south koreans who he seen war, idea of young, untested man in charge has

most deeply concerned. >> not ready to take over north korea. everybody is worried about it. >> crisis, and also an opportunity. >> an opportunity would be welcome by the desperate people of north korea. where one-third of the nation suffers from malnutrition. seoul said it did send condolences to the people. >> leon panetta spoke unequivocally about the threat of iran and the nuclear weapons program. also given timetable in america's response to the looming threat. national security correspondent jennifer griffin is following the story from the pentagon. good evening. >> geng, bret. the defense secretary made a series of strong statements in the past week about iran nuclear program. how far the u.s. is willing to go to stop it. he was asked how long before

iran could get a nuclear bomb? it would probably be sometime around a year that they would be able to do it. perhaps a little less. if they proceed, and we get intelligence that they are proceeding with the developing a nuclear weapon, we will take whatever steps are necessary to stop it. the secretary added the u.s. has no evidence that iran leadership ordered the iranian scientists to pursue a bomb. even if they did, most u.s. and israeli estimates believe irainians won't have a delivery system for another two to three years. secretary panetta was clear based on the known enrichment site that it would take more or less a year for iran to obtain enough material to assemble a nuclear weapon. if iran took the decision tomorrow. the problem is the u.s. and others don't know if iran has hidden enrichment sites. that is why the secretary told us on the recent trip to the middle east, u.s. will keep flying spying mission over iran to keep an eye on the nuclear sites.

today, diplomats met in rome and discussed whether to impose oil embargo on iran and further sanctions. >> bret: thank you. we have update to a story jennifer recently told us about. family of bronze star national guardsman sampson luke originally denied death benefits after he died at home after returning from a training mission. the army reversed the decisio decision. u.s. government is close to resting the case against the army intelligence analyst blamed for the biggest leak of chasfied information in american history. once it does, it is up to a military officer to recommend whether 24-year-old private first class manning be court-martialed on 22 charges, including aiding the enemy. he is accused of providing secrets to the wikileaks

website. did disney land play a role in determining the next north korean leader? the answer is next in grapevine. plus, why the u.n. does not think santa is up to the tas this can year? you lose, the more you lose, because for every two pounds you lose through diet and exercise, alli can help you lose one more by blocking some of the fat you eat. let's fight fat with alli. ♪

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>> bret: now some fresh pickings from the political grapevine. oklahoma republican senator tom coburn has a new report out highlighting what he calls more than $6.5 billion in wasteful government spending. some examples included the

waste book are almost $800,000 to subsidize pancakes for yuppies. coburn says ihop restaurant built intending to help underserved community. however, it was opened in a popular washington, d.c., neighborhood. $113,000 for video game preservation in new york. $10 million in federal funds to u.s. agency for international development to remake sesame street for pakistanis with a message about education. more than a half a million dollars to documentary project about how rock 'n' roll contributed to the collapse of the soviet union. presumptive north korean leader kim jong ii jumped the direct line of succession for unusual reason. his older brother fell from favor after he was arrested a decade ago trying to sneak in

japan on fake passport. at the time he said he was going to disney land. santa is slammed in a new ad relieved by the united nations children fund. it shows santa workshop opening a box to his chagrin contains only medicalisms. taksupplies -- medical supplies. take a look. >> all this stuff goes to poor countries, like africa. i don't do poor countries. ♪ ♪ >> bret: conservatives say they asked why on earth would jolly old st. nicholas resent aid for poor? is this just another way that the u.n. bureaucracy asserts its own moral superiority? ♪ ♪ >> bret: our top story at the bottom of the hour, the house rejected a plan to extend the payroll tax cut for

two months. republicans are instead demanding that the senate return to negotiate the extension for entire year. lost in the shuffle is something that once appeared to be a strong political bargaining chip for republicans. chief washington jim angle considers the keystone xl pipeline. >> no matter whether the senate or the house prevails, president obama will face a nasty dilemma, both bills would force him to make a decision on the keystone pipeline in 60 days. he is delayed the decision until 2013, a safe distance from the election. republicans argue against any delay on this or other part of the bill. >> our bill provides 20,000 jobs with the keystone pipeline construction. another 120,000 new jobs in the supply chain. >> why wait? >> the issue divides the president's base with the environmentalists opposing it

and labor unions supporting it, which many see as the reason for the delay. even democrats question the delay. >> if we are going to use oil we know we are addicted to, would you rather it come from a friend, neighbor, trusted ally or send the money to area they know will use it against you? >> it's time to make a move one way or another. we know what the issues are. and we can make a decision. i just think delaying it doesn't benefit anybody. >> the president once threatened to block any bill that included the keystone provision but dropped threats after both the house and senate agreed on it. the state department gave the initial environmental approval for the pipeline. rationale for delays the final approval was objection in nebraska over the route for the pipeline. since then, the nebraska governor and state legislature agreed to find another path and have it agreed by the time construction reaches the state. >> the issues in nebraska have been resolved.

this legislation recognizes the agreement that was reached in nebraska and it accommodates that. >> if the president were to act today, he says, the work and the jobs could begin. and nebraska's governor says he supports the effort to accelerate federal approval. in washington, jim angle, fox news. >> bret: we'll talk about the back and forth over the payroll tax cut extension on capitol hill today with the fox all-stars after a quick break. but to be honest, i find the omega choices overwhelming. which one is right for me? then i found new pronutrients omega-3. it's from centrum, a name i trust. it goes beyond my heart to support my brain and eyes too. and these ultra-concentrated minigels are much smaller than many others. it's part of a whole new line of supplements. there's probiotic and fruit & veggie too. new pronutrients from centrum helps make nutrition possible.

democrats and republicans in the senate said we are going to put our fight on other issues aside. and go-ahead and do what is right. on something we all agree to. i need the speaker and the house republicans to do the same. >> i need the president to help out. all right? [ applause ] >> senate voted to give the american people $166 tax cut.

we voted to give american people $1,000 tax cut. we are going to do this the right way. >> bret: $166 you heard the speaker say there, with the tax cut. the house voted today to set aside the senate two-month extension and push for a one-year extension in what is called a congressional conference. it's a negotiation. so far, we haven't seen both sides coming together. we haven't seen senators saying they will do it. what about this? bring in the panel. steve hayes for "weekly standard." a.b. stoddard associate editor with the hill. sindcated columnist charles krauthammer. a.b.? >> the house republicans are digging in over principle. not just digging in over politics. there are politics involved but they're angry with the senate. the senate has not passed a budget in a long time. the senate has been fopped of

temporary patches. it makes the congress look more dysfunctional. the house republicans are rebelled against temporary two-month patch to payroll tax cut extension. that being said, this is not going to be understood by most americans. this is something they will be exposed to charges of hypocrisy because they were opposed to the payroll tax cut extension on policy grounds. then agreed to go along with it, but only for a year to get past the next election. two-monto-panth ant the they are staying in the house through the holidays begging the senate to come back. the senate is saying we passed a bill with 89 votes. and we're not coming back. i really think this is a very high risk gamble for the house republicans. it's bad politics. people are tuned out for christmas. they want their $1,000. they hate the congress. >> bret: they are only going to get $166. >> they believe it will be

extented again in february. >> bret: but all they are agreeing to, is two months. so i get conventional wisdom in this town and i get the politics. there is a question, however, about lo listics of passing a two-month payroll tax cut. you had neutral parties like the payroll services. that say it jo listicly is difficult to do. and two, why isn't the onus then on the senate now to negotiate the full year? >> well, the onus technically is on the senate because the house was able on the floor to do what is technically reject the senate amendment. and request a conference. they are asking for what they call regular order. it would be the senate's turn. the papers have gone to the majority leader's office. but it is a question of politics. are people listening to the fact you can't enact a payroll tax cut for eight weeks? or are they listening to the

fact the taxes might go up? >> but the question you asked, it could be on the senate because house passed a version of this before. the reality, overwhelming vote in favor of this deal puts pressure on the house republican, where i think a lot of the pressure comes in. >> bret: the senate republican signed off on harry reid version. >> the senate republicans attack them for playing politics. >> they are playing politics with the middle class. a.b. is right. they are arguing on principle. they want a big picture detach argument. what we need is more people arguing on principle. the problem is that politically speaking you have to know when to make the arguments. right now, i think a.b. is right again.

the country may not pay attention to every dodge and curve of the fight. but thinking that the house republicans are blocking a president who wants to pass a tax cut. >> bret: know when to hold them, know when to fold them. >> the republicans have been outplayed. it's a game. he knows he doesn't have any effect on the economy. this is a way to track obama. he has succeeded. this has a lot of republicans on board. the democrats succeed to have the upper hand. if the republicans leave now, the democrats are not going to save the republican and the house and do nothing. we will go to january 1. there will be a tax hike. they will pass it in the

senate and the house. what republicans should have done is swallow the bill and accept it in a month or two. or what boehner ought to do is call the house back and propose the bill that the senate passed. with one change. change date of tax cut from 29 of february to december 31. every other comma, adjective in the bill is the same as passage. then dare the senate and president not to accept. >> bret: okay. people were taking notes on capitol hill. play this sound bite from president obama on "60 minutes." part of the interview that did not air but he talked about the legislative accomplishments. >> the issue will not be a list of accomplishments. as you said, i would put our legislative and foreign policy accomplishments in our first two years against any

president. with the possible exceptions of johnson, fdr and lincoln. in terms of what we have gotten done in modern history. >> when a roman concurring general returned to triumphant procession to rome, the crowd cheering him and calling him names there was a court hearing in the back, whispe whispering and obama ought to hire that guy. he is owed and he is still around. >> what about that comment? >> he is going to invite a heap of criticism -- >> bret: you are saying you are better than accomplishment of washington, reagan -- >> a long list. a long list. it invites criticism for his

attempt to expand the role of government in many ways and why he is unpopular in the battleground state. obviously, he is trying to change the subject. trying to be re-elected in terrible economy and trying to to break with history. trying to change it to his accomplishment. >> he said modern comparisons but he mentioned lincoln. >> two problems, one this is what the president thinks of himself. if he is asked to talk about himself, this is how he reflects. this is not the first time he has done it. level of narcissism is unprecedented in this town, in washington, d.c., which is seaing something. the bigger problem he said when he was elected he was coming to washington to fix the economy. one first thing he did is pass stimulus. he is wrong and arrogant. >> bret: next up, the latest in the 2012 race. people love the surf & turf. you can't go wrong.

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♪ ♪ >> bret: today, i as an individual. >> today, i as an individual am going to endorse rick santorum and mobilize whatever resources i have at any disposal to advocate for him. >> the national posts don't mean anything. people aren't paying that close of attention to what is going on here. the people in iowa are the ones paying attention. >> part of what i'm still getting over, i used to be an analyst at fox. every once in a while a reporter will ask an analytical question and i forget i'm not an analyst. i'm a candidate. if i make a mistake i'll tell you that is a boo-boo. >> it's possible this will go a long way. we built enough resources and raised money to have a campaign that will go to the very end. >> bret: a lot of action today on the 2012 campaign trail. first of all, bob vander plaat

endorsing rick santorum. the organization did not. but vander plaat did. the national poll, new poll out. abc news/"washington post." again, you can see the tie there at the top. ron paul at 15% and the others below. look at iowa, american research group, the latest out. gingrich at 22%. ron paul 17. romney, 17. perry, 13. there are the others. new hampshire. arg has a new poll out. you see ron paul again inches up to 21% in that poll in new hampshire. back with the panel. steve, thoughts? >> i think the bob vander plaaat endorsements are significant in as far as endorsements are significant. he is a big name in iowa. a lot of people loyal to him. there was a split among the organization that led for him to make clear he was endorsing rick santorum as individual. in my experience, interviewing

people in iowa in the past week, there are a lot of people who will offer to you, rick santorum as someone they support or are supportive of and they raise the question, can he win in iowa? i don't want to waste my vote. but if i think he can win, could cast a vote for him. who knows whether the people i talk to representative of the state. there were a lot of them who made the case. >> bret: what about, a.b., the fact that vander plaaat called michele bachmann to get out of race and endorse rick santorum. >> this is so interesting. she made the argument she is right with the family leader, on all of their issues. traditional marriage, all of them. she said no. thank you very much. she is ahead of rick santorum, she told him in the polls. she is going to stay in the race. rick santorum's endorsement from vander plaaat and whatever mobilization he can provide for him is bad news for newt gingrich and good for mitt romney.

ultimately, iowa will be a divided vote. any anti-romney vote, that gingrich loses at this point. he can't afford it. ron paul continues to surge there. i will say again the governor called his organization second to none. ron paul has been on the ground there for a long time. romney prepared for a very long battle. gingrich needs an early showing. needs an early push. he needs to be popular in iowa. he might not win. write off a ron paul victory but he needs to be second. he doesn't want romney having good percentage close to him and he doesn't want ron paul or bachmann taking votes from him. he needs money to do this and he needs to act like a front runner trying to win iowa. he is not spending enough time there. he doesn't have enough bodies on the ground. not spending enough money. two weeks away. >> bret: trying to win iowa, governor rick perry. he has a new ad out saying that iowanss will choose what street the go down. take a look. >> mitt romney, wall street.

he made millions, buying companies and laying off workers. newt gingrich, k-street. the lobbyist hangout in washington. newt got rich. made millions off of freddie mac. rick perry, main street, the outsider who sparked creation of a million new jobs. >> standing up to the washington machine. guided by principle. ron paul, is one with the plan to cut $1 trillion year one and eliminate the waste. balance the budget. ron paul, the one that you can trust. the one who will restore america. >> bret: okay. the first one obviously a perry ad and then a ron paul ad. go interesting messages there. charles? >> notice who perry is attacking. attacking gingrich. that was a positive paul ad but he has had the single most devastating ad of all. one called serial hypocrisy. perry every 60 seconds.

>> bret: sioux city, we saw it nonstop. >> negative newt ad, onslaught unseen in a long time. newt provided material. there is money used to accentuate the negative. checkered history ideologically. if you look at how this is affecting gingrich he is in the decline. in the two national polls they have gingrich and romney tight at the top. ron paul with half of that. we have perry and bachmann with half of that. then santorum and huntsman at half of that. all of those tears are viz -- all the tiers are visible. you know paul will do well in iowa. will anybody emerge in third tier? the bachmann and perry, possibly santorum. it's likely as a.b. said the

vote will be so split. if newt doesn't win he is the loser objectively speaking. >> bret: quickly, steve. this is not a quick question, unfortunately. you have written about all the talk about a brokered convention and the fact this goes a long way. let's not even talk about the possibility of other people getting in. but just brokered convention aspect of things. >> bret: well, there is a timing issue that i think makes this a possibility. if you were to have ron paul keep a number of his delegates, he is going to be campaigning hard in iowa. he will do what he can in the early state. the early state have already had half of their delegates stripped for violating republican party rules. so they have fewer delegates, proportionally allocated. so early states matter less this time around than the later states. you have basically february off. then in march, starts a sprint toward the come nation, that may or may not be a sprint depending on theout come of the early state.

>> bret: it will be fascinating. we are going to get a map and numbers and map it out for you. that is it for panel. stay tuned for more issues on capitol hill. [ male announcer ] if you think tylenol is the pain reliever orthopedic doctors recommend most for arthritis pain, think again. and take aleve. it's the one doctors recommend most for arthritis pain... two pills can last all day. ♪ the newest droid armed with motocast. granting you wireless access to files on your home computer from almost anywhere. 4g lte equipped to pull pictures, music, and movies. all at mind-melting speeds.

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and earned this heart, for being heart healthy. ♪ feel the beat? it's amazing what soup cano. >> bret: finally tonight, we have seen a lot of back and forth on capitol hill. of course, the approval rate for congress is at historic lows. things are not going great if you are a lawmaker on either side of the aisle. sometimes that negative energy just builds on itself. >> the chair now recognizes the gentle lady from alabama who will be followed by the gentle lady from north carolina. >> real easy question. is this about -- [ laughter ] >> you never know. thanks for inviting us into your home tonight. that's it for this "special report," fair, balanced, and unafraid. we will leave you tonight with the sights and sounds from the lighting of the national hanukkah menorah near the white house.