can we ever be truly ready for an earthquake. a geologist and engineer update us on the predictability of disaster and what to do if it happens. and hear ow st. anthony's dining hall serving the city's poor and those newly in the need of help. i am susan sikora, and that is on "bay area focus/black renaissance", next!

welcome to "bay area focus." i am susan sikora. tomorrow is the 21st anniversary of the loma earthquake. are we better informed about you are advising the next big one, and do activities elsewhere, like japan and even the east coast help us? we welcome a special scientologist and

paleontologist from the u.s. seismic mark. nice to have you here. >> good to be here. >> let's talk a little about the japanese tsunami and earthquake that happened on narrow 11th. where they -- on march 11th. were they completely unprepared for this? >> they knew the future, the seduction zone, where two pieces of plate come together and one actually dies down below another, that structure was in japan and historically it produced magnitudes of 7.5, to 8 to 8 2q 25 earthquakes. so. they -- 8.25 earthquake the. so, they build tsunami cals along the harbors and beach, but they never thought it could be as large as it was. therefore, even though the shaking did a lot of damage,

they were almost prepared for the shaking. they weren't prepared for the size of the tsunami. and the tsunami came in and overtopped all of the walls that they had constructed. >> now, the tsunami is the ocean water coming in, correct? isn't there a little lead time on that, vs. an earthquake? >> yes, there is. they had about 15 minutes lead time. >> that is not very much. >> no. the tsunami is caused by the ocean floor moving up. when it moves up, it displaces or pushes all the water on top of it, and it has to go somewhere, so, it begin to go on shore and builds into these horrific waves. they made models of what these wave was do, but they never really modeled this one and where she seen the consequences. >> could we get a tsunami here? >> we have had tsunamis along the california coast, and in

fact, a tsunami result from this earthquake. >> nothing what like they had. >> nothing like that. >> would we ever get anything that devastate something. >> not along the california coast, but there is the same time of seduction zone that extends from california, to the oregon, washington coast, to british columbia and it is called cascade ya. we think in january of 1700, the cascadeiaa moved, and it produced a magnitude 9 earthquake, a large tsunami, similar to what occured in japan. >> do we seem to be hearing a lot more about this days, or is the media maybe more hyper. >> i think we have.

and yes, the media is on top of things. we know the affects of earthquakes immediately these days with communications. we could have a big earthquake in the middle of the pacific ocean and we actually looked at the statistics going back to 1900. since then, on average, there is one magnitude, 8-plus earthquake per year worldwide. >> what do you make of the one on the east coast. i had a little -- at least after nobody was hurt at that moment, i left cryptic messages on the phones and relatives in new jersey saying you are out there with the earthquakes. i said at least we don have a hurricane and earthquake -- at lease we don't have a hurricane and an earthquake within an week of each other. i mean, who figured that. >> nobody thinks of earthquake the east coast, but they are there. it is part to have continent much less active seismically

than we are here, but there are earthquakes everywhere. and in 1886 in charlestonsouth carolina, was completely destroyed by a magnitude 7 earthquake. there are earthquakes in boston, in up state new york. people in new jersey and pennsylvania feel earthquakes. they are not as frequent as here, but they do occur. one of the real problem, while our buildings have been designed and improved over time to withstand the shaking, none of that has been done here. >> exactly. the pressure that is under the earth that plays into any of this, does it dissipate a little bit, because, okay we had one over here so that relieves the pressure, or this again a false sense of security. >> yes. it is an urban legend. we have these little earthquakes, that relieves the stress and pushes off the timing to the big ones.

but really the little earthquakes tell us, really, the stress is high. the little patches in the earth's crust are responding and slipping. so, the little ones do not relieve the pressure for the big ones. >> is there any way to predict it? i mean, you worked on it all the time in memo park. this is a state of the art facility, as far as we know. are we getting any closer? i mean i, i don't expect an app on my phone, but that said, are we any closer to knowing, okay, it is coming, things are looking bad? anywhere?

>> probably not. it is variable what can tell us what is imminent. we don't know down the road how technology will change. 50 years from now, there will maybe be a major break through. i don't think you can ever say never, but in the short term, no, we won't predict earthquakes. but we are getting much better at two things. number one is looking out ahead of time, decades, 10 year, 30 year, 50 years. and from all the information we have on fault, we can estimate the likelihood or probability. we are getting better in the short term, in an earthquake starts in one place, being able to alert another area that is shaking is on the way. >> is there any take away that we know now that we did not know in 1987? >> yes. we were completely unprepared for anything in the bay area. nothing had happened since

1906. and that was sort of the slap on the wrist that said you better get ready. we made a lot of progress in preparing and hardening our infrastructure since then. >> i heard the smart trains in japan were able to stop because they heard the warnings? >> yes. >> i guess we have a lot to do. if you want to know more about this, go to earthquake.usgs.gov. dr. david schwartz, thank you for being here. >> my pleasure. stay with us. we will talk to you about what to do if one comes. what do you have to do to get ready? stay with us.

welcome back. we are talking about earthquakes. joining us now is matt stein. his book "when disaster strikes: a guide to surviving a big crisis." >> thank you. >> are most of us still unprepared? we talk about this stuff and then it seems to die down. >> that is right. people talk about it all the

time and very little actually gets done. whenever you see a disaster, what happens? you see people warning around. walking, not driving. they usually have nothing and they are usually thirsty and hungry and cold and wet. that also means they often get sick. >> what do i need? water? granola bars? clothes? all of the above? >> every family should have a 72 hour kit. a big disaster, you are down one week, two week, is very common. it covers the basics for food, water, shelter, medicine and clothing for you and your family for a minimum of three- day, but you definitely want to have stocks for at least a couple of weeks on hand. now, the rule of 3's is the big thing to think about. 3 seconds without blood circulation and you are how the. 3 minutes without air and you are out. 3 days without water and it is hot and you have to be active

-- 3 days without water people start dying if you are hot and active. so, what will happen in an earthquake? water lines will bust, things will fall down and you will be walking down the street with the behavior you can carry on your back and you will be -- with whatever you can carry on your back, and you will be drinking out of the duck pond. and if you are prepared, you can pure five the water. >> for people that don't remember a big earthquake in their lifetime will think i will get on my cell phone and call something or order up or whatever. and you say to that? >> the first thing to go down with be the cell phones. they will be gone quickly. and in a major earthquake, within three-day, the infrastructure in the entire area is completely gone. all the back up power is gone. you are not pumping gasoline. you are not pumping water or

sewage. you have no air conditioning, no elevators in buildings working, and if your buildings are still standing, and you are certainly stuck with ditch water and duck ponds. >> so? >> so, this is the most important item in my aid kit. >> it doesn't look very state of the art. >> it is a water bottle. this is a state-of-the-art back country water filter. this goes to nepal, the top of event resistant. this will purify your water. you take this end and stick it in your ditch or duck pond. and inside this is a cartridge with a ceramic outside and a carbon core. it will take all the nasty bugs out of the water and the carbon core takes all bad tastes, odors and chemicals out of the water. so, you pump this into the bottle and you get nice, good tasting water.

>> i can get this from any duck pond. assume i don't have a duck pond nearby. what else can i use? >> if you don't have a duck pond or ditch, you can't use sea water because of the salt. you can't drink sea water, your kidneys will shut down. you will die from lack of water if you drink sea water. you have to find water, rain water, duck pond water, ditch water. whatever, you need to find something. and there are a lot of ditchs in the city. imagine all the people in cats surrounded by water -- katrina surrounded by water everywhere. it came by sewage plants, huge mounds of manure and chemical refineries. there were toxic sewage coming all around katrina and those people are thirsty. they will drink it. imagine your kids were sick because you didn't have a few bucks for this, or, if you

have a bottle of color rocks bleach, 5 drops if it is newer, 10 if it is older. you have to wait at least half hour if it is warm after you add it. if it is cold, chilly, a couple of hours. if it is ice cold water, four hours you have to wait for the bleach to do its trick. >> nobody hat come with a desal version for sea water? >> there is, but you are talking a couple thousand versus $70. here is another really great -- water is such a critical item. this is a really great toy right here. >> where am i getting this? >> you can get it at any back country place, rei, back country supply place. you have seen the movie, men in black, right? >> yes. >> he takes his pen out and says everybody look this way,

gives a click and it flashes. you take the pen out, fill the bottle with water, the blue light flashes and all the bugs a dead. >> no blue light, don't drink? but the downside, if the water is scummy dish water, it won't work. it has to be clear water to work. you have to have really nasty bugs in totally clear water, smell great it's, looks great, but it could still make you sick unless you kill it. >> and i should have battery operated -- communication will be important. if help is on the way. a battery operated radio might be better, or not? what is this? >> there is a radio that is hand crank operated. you can crank this for a minute then listen for 15 minutes to the radio. it has a built-in spring generator. it is am/fm, plus short wave.

>> okay. >> so, they sell cheap emergency radios. it is probably going to break if it is too cheap. so, get yourself a decent quality. eton make as good one. >> quickly, with all these things, if i assemble them and use your book to do so and get all this ready. suppose it is in my garage but i am in the city driving. do i have to have a duplicate kit in the car? >> it is a good idea to have a copy of these item, kit, in your car. you are talking act your life here. a few bucks can make a big difference. >> matt stein, we want to thank you. we are forearmed. and the book is called "when disaster strikes." you can get more information from matt' website on matt-- matstein.com. >> thank you. >> stay with us, more ahead.

welcome back. at the economy continues to serve the community for those in need. meet sherry razlor, the executive director of st. anthony's dining hall. welcome. >> thank you for having me. >> i can't imagine how hard your job has gotten in the last two or three years now. what is difference? >> we are seeing an increase

every year of at least 10% of the numbers of guests coming to the dining room. more folks coming to the technology lab to learn new skills, computer skill to be employable. all the programs are seeing equal increases in numbers. >> let's get to the dining room, first. you can't do much in all the other areas if you are hungry and can't think, pretty much. that population is up by 10%, that demand? >> it is. we are serving up to 3,500 meals each day. we are expecting to serve over 1 million meal this is year. we are seeing more folks that are unemployed and being able to chemical to st. anthonys for several meals a week which enables them to keep housing and clothing for the children for clothes. we are really providing the hands below the safety net, as it were. >> and given the times we are

living in and the economic challenges that seem pretty daunting, i guess the question is the embarrassment sometimes for people who have never not only been in this position, but never thought they would be in this position. my question to you is how do you work with that to keep their dignity and get the word out at the same time? >> from the beginning saint anthonys has impressed on all the staff and volunteer that is everybody is met with respect and dignity. and we have seen many people who were donors and now comes for a meal, it is hard. the loss of a job, that sense of i have failed. so, what we do each and every day, our staff of incredible volunteers is to remind folks you still have your dignity that. you are welcome here and part of our family from the beginning, st. anthony's family wanted to call it a dining room for that reason. you are dining with family and

friends. you are accepted for exactly who you are and what is happening in your life. >> what kind of supplies do you have? are you constantly scrambling -- you serve those meals one dean and go back out and -- one day and go back out and get more donations coming in? >> we rely totally on private donations and individuals. we get a third to half the daily food from the food bank. then we buy in bulk so we are able to have bulk food we can do, and we purchase about a third of the food, as well. we have executive-trained chefs at st. anthony's. they are able to take whatever fresh produce comes in on any given day and create a wonderful and nutritious meal so our guests get good nutrition. >> is it becoming more necessary, sherry, to ask what seems like the same people all the time. the people on the a-list, the people with the money in town. they say, i just gave to you.

i need to give to someone else. does that become difficult for your staff to do? >> i think we continue to see an incredible generosity of the people of san francisco. we have a wealthy city, and we have abundance and it continues to come. because of our history being here and we stand with folks when they hit the hardest of time, i think all of san francisco knows we are a civic anchor and she want to know we are able to keep that stability and reclaim that stability. >> i assume you need cash and a check is good even you probably take plastic, but what over donations can you make now, maybe people facing foreclosure and they have things to get rid of in a hurry, not necessarily junk, things they put in a garage sale. things they continue have any space for or where they are going. >> we have a an annual curb side donation. the saturday before

thanksgiving through the day before thanksgiving, the 17th through 23rd of november, folk cans drive up and we have volunteers in red jackets outside and you can drop off clothing. a lot of folks bring turkeys and other bulk items, potatos, rice, beans, and that is a beautiful thing that we do both the week before thanksgiving anacreon the week before christmas. and that -- and the week before christmas. and we are opened through the week and weekends. we have a emergency food pantry at the social work center and it helps us to have more food throughout the year. >> people can come to the food pantry, take them home and cook them themselves? >> yes. a lot of them are seniors and quarter of our guests are veterans. we work with them to make sure they have food. >> is there any requirement if somebody come to your door and says i am in need. i didn't think it would happen. do you need paper, a license?

what do you need from me? >> if you come to our door and you are hungry, or in need of an education, a computer class, you are welcome. >> how has this work changed new. >> i think it transforms you from the inside-out. when you meet the guests and you get to interact and see the common humanity, and as much as we might think as a volunteer, staff person, we are giving to them, they give back to us hundred-fold. you cannot help but be changed whether you interact with your fellow brother and sister. >> and st. anthonys is in the city? >> yes. at the golden gate and jones. >> okay. and for more information, information is on the screen... we will leigh you now with the bay area's -- and we will leave you now with the bay

area's own neverland. they perform friday and saturday, october october 28th and 29th in the bay area. i am susan sikora. thank you for watching. [doorbell rings]

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