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tv   U.S. Farm Report  ABC  October 24, 2015 5:00am-6:00am CDT

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situation tolerable. acrificing life on the farm to fight for our contry's freedom... "for me, i don't know if there's anything else that would have been as rewarding as serving in the military." in leave a legacy, we're off to wisconsin to meet a farmer able to pursue a life-long dream thanks to his supportive wife. and in john's world.
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and corn taxes will see more immediate results, possible being removed all together. the current president has clashed with farmers since taking office in 2007. that's when she tried to raise the soybean tax to 45 percent. soybeans support a third of government spending. china is lifting restrictions on u-s pork processing plants, opening the door for as much as half of u-s pork processed in the u-s. china banned pork from u-s plants after officials found traces of ractopamine starting a year ago. imports can now come from 14 u-s plants and warehouses. china is the largest buyer of pork. a supply and demand imblance is creating a slow recovery in the global pork market. a new report from rabobank shows adverse exchange rates hurt pork trade in the third quarter of this year. and with elevated price levels today, the remainder of this year will be challening. rabobank says looking longer term, the main question is how much growth we'll see in major
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importing countries, and how that will impact trade. the u-s is putting the breaks on milk production, with the latest numbers showign the slowest rate of increase all year. the u-s department of agriculture says milk ouput grew less than one half of a percent in september. and looking at the third quarter, production rose almost one percent. california continues to lead the pack in the decline, with the state milk numbers down 3 point 6 percent on the month. the state's also losing cows, with usda showing the herd down one thousand head. south dakota continues to perform the best-- cow numbers are up over 10 thousand head from a year ago. milk production is up 12 percent. those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with a look at next week's weather. mike.
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thanks, tyne, well for parts of the country it will be a little wetter week although in texas it can't be wetter than what you've seen over the past three to four days. some of this drought severe exceptional drought will probably be wiped right off the map here within a couple weeks. it usually takes a little while to get rid of severe drought, but you're just going to have so much rain, already have, and we'll get some more that we'll see some of this drought just go away by the next we show it. still severe drought out west even though there are chances of moisture coming your way as well. so let's go day by day. we'll start off on monday.l there that's system. another one, this is not the one that gave all the rain over the past
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especially southeast texas, parts of southern mississippi valley, as well. stalled front, carolinas, northern georgia, maybe a shower or two, maybe a shower northern michigan form a cool front and storm system coming in to the west. so washington, oregon, norther california getting some rain showers. you can see chillier air has settled once again into the middle and eastern portions of the country by wednesday then that storm out of the gulf comes north. the storm in the west comes east. and this is a huge weather maker. lots of rain for northern plains into the ohio valley parts of the great lakes, tennessee valley. some of that will be soaking rains, another decent system. this is the second one coming into the west coast, giving some rain there. that ones moves into the four corner region on friday, giving showers and even some thunderstorms again into parts of texas, new mexico, but cooler and even colder air moves into much of corn belt as we head through next week. back in our next half hour with our longer range outlook. thanks, mike. when we come back, matt bennett
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be right back.
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welcome back to u.s. fa me matt bennett of bennett consulting, and chip mellinger of blue reef agri marketing. i'm hearing there's still some old crop left out in the countrysides, so if some of these farmers haven't seen an incentive to sell that old crop
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yet, what's your advice for them? chip? >> well, if you've held it this long you probably have to hold a little while longer. at least get through the january crop report, maybe into the last half of winter, and see if there's any developments, whether that be some dry weather in brazil, you know, a drop in yields, corn yields on the january crop report. if you've held it this long you probably have to give it a little more time and see how this thing shakes out in winter, but i think the rope's got to be pretty short at this point. >> we talked about it last week, but basis is just all over the board in some areas, and you guys were telling me like in some areas of indiana there's just not a lot of corn, so basis is really, really good. so how does this all shake out, matt? >> well, i think what we have to understand is where basis is really, really hot is where the crop wasn't all that good, obviously, and so those guys are going to have a harder time maybe going ahead and pulling the trigger like chip's talking. they're probably going to want to wait just a little bit longer
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to have it's pretty tough for me to sell that at $4 cash, even though that's a number we all like to see. a guy that had 24bushel corn, he'd love to sell at $4 cash, but a lot of those guys we've been talking about are 45 and 50 under. so how do we get the corn from those areas over here? obviously we've got to keep pushing the basis, and i think basis is trying to do quite a bit of the work right now. basis is telling us that the crop isn't so good in some places. i think as we move forward we're probably going to see that's going to converge at some point. >> chip, what about those areas where the crop is that good and the crop's piling up on the ground? what are they doing to try to get that out and how could that help other areas? >> well, i think it adds on with what matt was saying. in my opinion in the eastern corn belt it feels a lot like 2012. i mean, this basis is just screaming 340 over. the difference is in 2012 nobody had a crop. this year is just a logistics issue. the crop's all in the northwest corn belt. there's two, three million bushel piles on the ground.
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function of this basis is to get the spread wide enough between the eastern corn belt where they're corn deficit, the western corn belt where they have piles on the ground and make it profitable to rail that corn east, so i think there's a little bit of an upper limit to this basis, and i'm a little cautious in, i guess, reading too much into the strong basis thinking, hey, that means we have to rally or the crop's not there. in the big picture it's still a big crop even if they would cut yields another bushel or two on the january report. still going to be one of the top two or three crops we've ever raised. >> so considering that, matt, what does it take to rally these prices substantially? >> well, i think a substantial rally is going to take like chip was talking, we're going to have to drop the yield back just a little bit. >> do you think that will happen? >> i think that it's going to come back just a little bit, but i've been dead wrong on corn yield probably three reports in a row. >> easy to do this year. >> so you don^t want to take that to the bank. i do think it's probably going to
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states such as illinois and indiana that need to come down just a little bit more. i'm not sure iowa's quite where they have it even though there's really good corn in northern iowa. there's other parts of iowa that are struggling. i think moving forward we're definitely going to be keeping a close eye on the safrihna crop for brazilians because that's where a lot of the acres are going to be planted. a lot of people are planting beans first go around, and i think there's going to be a lot of pressure on the safrihna crop to be a good crop. >> yeah, we'll get into that a little bit. chip, in your mind, what does it take to have a big move in both corn and beans, and is it likely that we could see that? >> well, yeah, i think weather or a major production problem somewhere, and that could be eastern europe or ukraine, brazil or argentina, so unfortunately that's just not in the immediate future here. that's going to be down the road a ways. we're already dry in many parts o the eastern corn belt. i don't want to beat a drum just yet, i'm not saying that, but if by february or march we don't get soso rain or snowfall, you know, we're sitting pretty dry in the eastern corn belt so, that can
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become an issue too. it's going to take a major weather scare and unfortunately that's down the road a ways. >> all right, well, we're going to get into the acreage battle as well as talk about south american production, and we need to hit on livestock too, so we're going to do all that when we come back on u.s. farm report. receive a free trial of the daily market letter in getting knowledge about current market conditions from the professionals at dollar trading. view the markets like
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welcome back to u.s. farm report. well, here we are late october. i guess it's never too early to talk about acreage, but, chip, in your mind does corn need to buy acreage for 2016? >> well, i think some of that's still to be determined. it depends on the next couple months how this south american crop goes for beans, so beans are a big part of this equation.
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i think it depends also on what our final corn yield's going to be in january. we're already talking about under a billion six. carryout's pretty good if they cut other yields, bushel, bushel and a half, two bushels it's going to tighten that carryout up. so yeah, i can make the case for that, but i think it's a little too early to tell and we got get out to kind of january or february to get a little better picture of that. >> you know, matt, we're hearing from a lot of grain producers that are really just in a tight situation, so what's the mood out in the countryside right now? and considering that, what's your advice to prepare for 2016? >> well, you know, it doesn't take a whole lot of magazines to be picked up that you read that we're burning through equity. a lot of guys have burnt through equity. it's been a really tough last 18 months. we transitioned out of a time of record profitability into a time where commodity prices dipped enough that it put some people in the red, and so looking towards next year i think a lot of guys are kind of sitting around here this fall trying to figure out what's their acreage mix going to be. and i think as chip's saying i can make a case for it. we're
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don't know what it's going to be. we're looking at insurance price 10 right now. d16 is 10 last year's spring insurance price, i think. with input costs being steady, to me that would suggest we're going to need something to be able to hold acreage status quo. now, the one thing that's on the other side of that is soybean prices are cheaper than what we were a year ago. but whenever we're burning through equity a lot of guys are going to be trying to find a way to get the crop out there that they can actually feel fairly comfortable that they're not going to lose a whole lot of money on. >> and which crop's that? >> well, it depends for every producer, but for a guy that's a crop sharer or a guy that owns his ground, he can make quite a bit of money in corn or beans right now, either one. >> chip, when we look at south america, specifically argentina, elections this weekend. they're talking about reducing the taxes on corn, soybeans, wheat substantially. does that open the door for a flood of exports out of that country where farmers have been
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good point. i think that may be one thing the argentine farmer has been holding tight fisted with beans for the past couple of years because it's kind of their inflation hedge. if you get a new government in there that is going to cut export taxes, that could alter the supply situation a little bit and put some more of their beans on the market. so right now that's a benefit to us because a couple of those candidates have kind of mentioned they're going to reduce those taxes. that selling from their farmer has dried up, and our bean exports have been pretty strong the last three or four weeks here, so definitely that could be something that we really need to watch. in a short run it might be supportive to us. in the long run that could maybe put a little more supply of beans on the market. >> at the same time, we have the dollar at a teweek high, you said, so >> yeah, the dollar's been screaming. that's mostly due to some weakness in europe and some hints that they're going to do some for quantitative easing
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there. and that's been something that has really without much to talk about right now fundamentally for the grain market, as soon as that dollar started rallying it just capped our corn and bean rally earlier this week. so unfortunately we're tied to these outside markets. the dollar's rallying. that's a little bit of a negative head wind in the short run here. >> matt, we're going to talk a lot about feed lots coming up on this show, but i was just in texas and these feed lot operators, it's a sting right now. we're looking at huge losses, so where do you see prices moving forward? they say once we could get through some of these heavier weights there's tight supplies, but for right now we're still looking at huge losses per head. >> well, anybody who studies the markets know cattle are very cyclical in nature, so we've obviously had a time of historic profitability here in the last couple years. a lot of these guys have really done well. we were talking before the show, the cow guys, they're still in pretty good shape. they're still doing just fine for the most part, but the feed lots, they haven't been able to bank a margin here for quite some time, and i think earlier in the year they were
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making probably a little bit more money than what they're making now so it makes this a little bit easier to stand. but i think moving forward i don't see prices rallying substantially. >> chip, do you agree with that? >> well, i think we've expanded a little bit. we had better grass conditions in almost the entire midwest and plains than we've had for years, and i think there's still some cattle just now still coming off the grass, so i think that's backed up the supply a little bit and i do think maybe the cow side has expanded a little bit. is it enough to keep us shooting higher into new highs? i'm not sure, but you know, it's going to be difficult going forward because with higpriced feeders we're not seeing very many gains out there right now. >> yeah, very much so. all right, when we come back we're going to get their closing thoughts. for 150 years cargill has been working side by side with farmers in the agricultural
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continue to look forward and are excited to offer online grain
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welcome back to markets now. chip, what do you want to leave us with? >> well, i would say if you're in the eastern corn belt you have to definitely shop your basis around. there's strong basis. do it now. don't wait till december because the opportunity might be nowowand also we have to get in the mentally on this crop and even next year's crop. we have to become willing sellers of rallies and protect that instead of hoping and expecting the markets in a bull trend. >> all right. matt bennett? >> yeah, i think he makes a good point, and i think producers are going to have to understand exactly where they're at. they've got to know what their profitability is because it's pretty tough to market a crop when you don't know exactly where you're at. we just don't have a whole lot of margin. we can't get too cute with this market, so if we get rallies i think i want to be a willing seller of soybeans especially, maybe give corn just a little bit more time. >> all right, thank you both. we appreciate it. stay with us,
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could actually have a win, from a recent decision out of washington, d.c. is going to do that when we come back. this is machinery pete inviting you to check out my new website, offering farmers tens of thousands of used equipment listings to search. let machinery pete help
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john joins us from the farm this weekend to tell us why a recent deveopment in washington could be a win for whole milk. john. recently the dietary guidelines for americans has been in the news as usda officials work on the latest revision. while the controveries over sustainability and meat consumption have been headlines another rather surprising development came to light. it could be that the avoidance of whole milk in favor of reduced
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a few years ago. now after decades of data, there is countering evidence that saturated fats, as found in whole milk are not entirely bad for you. while still heavily debated, one possibile reason is what replaces fat in our diet. apparently, if we add more carbohydrates we can actually increase our health risk more than continuing a higher fat diet. however, if we replace saturated fats with unsaturated fats, there are strong data of better outcomes. one very popular reaction to this news like this is to throw your hands in the air and snarl, "next year they will change their minds again" and write off dietary research as little more than
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unhelpful, in my opinion. food science changes because new and better evidence becomes available. with modern technology now advancing what we know about what we eat in greater detail, i expect many similar revisions in the future. it does not diminish the efforts of scientists to offer their best advice today from current research. such new discoveries also offer a chance for producers - in this case dairy producers - to respond with professionalism and respect. instead of criticizing past miscalculations by nutrition experts, i hope to hear encouragement and praise for efforts to better understand how dairy products can fit into optimal diets. in short, if whole milk does suddenly come
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ready with a business plan. thanks, john. with feedyard losses so steep and operators on the brink of financial collapse, we'll see why prices still have a chance to recover. that's our
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farm report. weleome back to u-s farm report. we have much more ahead this weekend. it's a feedlot frenzy. we'll tell you why balance sheets are bleeding red. in leave a legacy, strong family support helped one dairy farmer pursue his passion for both serving and feeding our country. john tackles the topic of prison pork in customer support. and al pell has a tarheel tractor this week. now for the headlines, after intense pressure to serve antiobiotic free meat, subway announced this week it's making the switch. subway is the latest fast food chain to remove antibiotics from its meat supply, but denies the pressure from advocacy groups is the reason. the company with the slogan "eat fresh" says it will eliminate antiobiotics in all its meat, making it the largest chain to adopt the production practice. subway will start next year with chicken and turkey,
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then eventually moving to antiobiotic free pork and beef in all of its 27 thousand stores. rabo agrifinance's don close told me looking down the road, he thinks demand from u-s export markets instead of u-s customers could drive the move to antiobiotic free meat production in the u-s.
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suppliers, and what impact it will have on food prices. the epa mine spill could have been prevented. taht's according to a new interior department investigation of the coloardo gold mine incident that dumpted 3 million gallons of wastewater into the river. it tainted waters in three states. the investigation found it could have been avoided if e-p-a chekcked on water levels inside the gold mine before digging into its entrance. yngenta's c-e-o is stepping down. mike mack announced his resignation for the end of october, sending syngenta's stock 5 percent higher. c-f-o john ramsay will serve as interim c-e-o until a new one is named. this move comes just months after syngenta turned down several takeover attempts by monsanto. mack was very vocal about his desire to keep syngenta operating as a separate company. in his resignation announcement, mack said he believes it's an approopriate time for the company to benefit from persepectives of a new leader, calling current market conditions challenging. we could be on pace to have the warmest
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year on record. according to our reporting partners at agweb, unless the weather makes a sharp turn to the cool side, global temperatures could set records. noaa says september had the warmest average global land and ocean mperatures since records began in 1880. noaa says the u-s had the second warmest september since 1998, but spain and alaska saw the coldest month in more than a decade. that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman joininus now with a look at the long- range foreast. mike, noaa says we had a very warm september. that sure made for perfect harvest weather this year. thanks, tyne it definitely was nice harvest for most folks but we are going to get into a little wet weather patterns as we head through next couple of weeks you can see jet stream showing a troph kind of digging into the east, especially into the second hal of this week. that's going to have a lot of rain ahead of it then a quick shot of cold air that there's just little ripple after little ripple coming eastward, some of those going to get west coast areas that haven't seen much rain over the past two to three
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going above normal for west coast, northern half of rockies right down through central and southern mississippi valley into southeast. below normal for much of west texas, new mexico, below normal for far northwest and northeastern great lakes. precec over next 30 days. from mid atlantic to florida, southern half of mississippi valley from ohio valley southward through southern half of plains into the southwest, above normal expected. below normal for far northwest and far northern tier of states, great lakes and new england. tyne thanks, mike. as we've been reporting on u-s farm report, feedyards are having a rough go. a dramatic turn in prices sent profits spiraling downward leaving operators trying to survive. but even as balance sheets bleed red, our farm journal report shows us why some are hopeful the final outcome of the year may not be so bad. what started as a bull market made a quick reversal
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just dropped a lot quicker than everyone expected and kind of sent the industry in shock mode for a minute.."> for texas panhandle feedyard operator ryan moorhouse, the situation is as bad as advertised.
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back to where we were. but we'll get back to where it's tolerable anyway.">
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profitability, but i think we'll be in a range that is at least more tolerable, and considering the cattle industry has seen reduced placements the past 9 months out of 12, he says 2016 holds promise, as well.
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well udnerway and considering the aggressive heifer retention,
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years. up next-- we're off to headlines last week shocked the pork industry, as news outlets discovered the obamama adminstration eliminated pork from prison menus. while that decision was overturned and pork will remain in prisons, john phipps gives us his take. john. on facebook we received this comment from mark scendau: "would like to hear your take on obama's ruling about pork not being served in federal prisons. i do not believe inmates voted they do not want pork and think some investigative journalism is order before riots s eak out." mark, we talked about this briefly on friday's free for all on agritalk, so you can listen the discussion on myfarm radio.
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this tumult is wildly disproportionate. look at the numbers: there are a little over 200,000 federal prisoners in the u-s. if they consume the average amount of pork each year - 50 pounds - t ty represent 10 million pounds of consumption. ill admit this sounds impressive until you compare it to out total pork production of over 20 billion pounds. so we're have a major pork producer tantrum over less than 5 hundredths of one percent of the market. if the national pork producers and sentator grassley have time to devote to this extremely minor issue i suggest they have a confused system of priorities. second, this decision is was not made by president obama, but he does bear untimate reponsibility,
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just like the ceo of cargill is to blame for thehecrewup in my bean settlement last week. again, seems a impractical way of looking at how the world works. finally, senator grassley didn't believe that prisoners would rank pork that low, but like you he has no evidence to disprove it either. i realize it is now acceptable to simply deny any fact you don't agree with, but if prison officials do produce surveys that support their claims, i doubt either grassley or the nppc will apologize for calling the administrator a liar. finally, as best i could determine, about 15-20% of federal inmates are muslim and proscribed from eating pork. that alone might drive the ranking down significantly. pork producers
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interests by manufacting outrage from tiny irritations. it's small wonder we see little progress on real problems facing farmers and congress when this is what consumes their time. thanks, john. if you have a question or comment for john, just shoot as an email or send us aote on facebook or twitter. up nexxt, a touching story about how a strong family bond can keep a farm afloat, even when the husband makes a respectable career change. leave a legacy is next
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pioneer-- helping you get the right product on the right acre. science with service, delivering succeess."> chasing our dreams is often a difficult or overwhelming road. in leave a
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legacy, the wisconsin dairy news introduces us to a dairy farmer finding a way to pursue two passions thanks to love and support from his family. alan and stephanie hughes are teaching their young sons, bryce and gavin, the responsibility of caring for their herd of sixty cows. "they love doing chores, they love being out in the barn, i mean, how nice is it to raise your children on a dairy farm?" on their small dairy farm in pittsville, wisconsin, the boys even help their dad fix his antique e actors when they'reenot busy working with the cows. "good job, give me five! give me five!" somewhere along the way their father, alan, went from refurbishing his grandfather's farmall-20 tractor to fixing up f- 16 fighter jets as a member of the 115th fighter wing of the wisconsin air national guard. "this is something that i've wanted to do my whole life, but the one reason why i did it at this point in time was because
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while the couple shared a dream of running a small dairy farm, alan also had a dream of serving in the militar so, stephanie encouraged alan to pursue his dream and dedicated herself to running the family farm. "i couldn't wait for him to get a hold of that passion or that ing that he wanted tdo in life. and he has that now." alan's work ethic and motivation, which were second nature on the farm, helped with his military training. "for me, i don't know if there's anything else that would have been as rewarding as serving in the military." knowing that stephanie is able to take care of the farm and the family makes it a little easier for alan to pursue his dream. "that's a big part of the reason why i didn't join the military earlier is because i didn't want to give up the farming and the agriculture side of thing, and i'm very lucky to have found a way to do both." and that's wisconsin
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for sharing their story. your can learn more about farm journal's legacy project by visiting farm journal legacy project dot com. when weweome back, al peleltakes us to the east coast for a classic tractor.
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from the tarheel state this week. mike turner shares his 56 international harvester farmal 100 with u u while this may be a great garden tractor for mike, he has some sentimental reasons for bringing this classic back to life. this tractor came about an hour and a half from here. i've been looking for a tractor to cultivate my gargen with. i didn't have a tractor i could plant without having to use a hoe, use a tiller. so ive been lookg for a cultivating tractor and the farmall made a good series that does that. this one has got a little more sentimental value to it. i grew up on a farmall 100 when i was a little fella. learned how to drive 10 or 12 years old on a farmall 100 so when i found this
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half away i called the guy up and drove up there to take a look at it. he said he had just posted it on facebook. he said he had 4 people to call me, on craigsli. i said im on my way to reedsville. so i took off to reedsville, and went up and looked at it, made a deposit and brought it back home a couple of days later. not knowing much about the history of how well the tractor had been taken care of i put in the shop andtarted doing maintenance on it. changing the oil, checking the fluids, greasing it, putting new grease fittings on it. things that really needed to be done to it. i asked@the guy when i bought when the last time they changed the oil, he said well it was changed 3 years ago when i bought it so i new it needed an oil change. couple of weeks ago i found a set of cultivators i wanted. the sweeps came with it on the back and some round disks used for hilling. i had to buy a couple of letters on the front to farmal. one of them was gone so i b bght a little to try y bring it back up to good shape. and ive got a full set of decals for it i just hadn't ive got to find out where they go so im sure im tting them in their proper place. as president of
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the tractor club this year, the lord gramalala cultural heritage association i thought it would be appropriate for the president to have a tractor he could show, so i have a tractor. and this weekend, we wantnto pay tribute to the helmer united meothodist churh of helmer, indiana. located int eh far northeastern corner of indiana, the congregation is celberating 160 years. congratulations. please, stay with us-- cropwatcp is next.
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mike, one of my sights is a white ocean of open cotton bolls. it really doesn't get much prettier than that. jim nunn captured the sight-- this is in his field in haywood county, tennessee that he think will yield 2 and a half bales or more per acre. he says yields have been excelent in west tennessee, and statewide,
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producers could even see a record crop. but there are interesting dynamics this year with the fewest acres of cotton planted since the 1800's. and tyne, whwh you only have 200 acres of harvest left, it's time to get comfortable. or at least that's what jeremy wolf tells us. he's from mer, illinois and says corn ad beans have both yieled better than expected this year. that helped him have a nice, relaxing morning this week with the sunshine warming his toes. and there's nothing like standing i ia field, watchinggharvest a nice, crcrp autumn day. but cleve is giving us a unique, aerial view of harvest in clay county, indiana. this is footage taken with a drone. and a fun fact, the koheler's are actually distant cousin of our own al pell. as always, we want to hear from you, send comments
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to mailbag-at-u-s-farm-report-dot- com or check us out on facebook and twitter. for john, al and mike, i'm tyne morgan. thank you r watching u-s farm report. be sure to join us right here again next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great weekend, everyone.
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candidates are headed to iowa, after latest poll numbers show iowans shifting their support. weak poll numbers are forcing one candidate to cut back on his campaign spending. and this week, a pre-destined pepsi can from back to the future went on sale. but some fans were left in
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