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tv   AG Day  FOX  October 20, 2015 4:30am-5:00am CDT

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global dairy markets. what that means is that they will require more of thr milk internal to make that cheese produ and for their other products they are going to need bring in some support. and protecting a valuable commodidi from poachers. agday-brought to you by the dependable, long lasting chevy silverado. good morning i'm clinton griffiths. a cold blasmoved into parts of the corn belt over the weekend...and those freezing temperatures brought the gring season to an end. farmers are pushing their equipment hard to finish harvest. and soybean harvest is now on the down hill slide. usda's crop progress report shows 77 percent of the crop now harveste that's 9 points ahe of the five year average. the eastern corn belt really pushing progress ahead. ohio is momo
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pfrcent of that crop icut. that's about five point ahead of the five year average. nebraska sitting at just 40 p pcent rvested. while 85 pepeent of illinios i inow in the bin. it is very difficult to give up a farm, even one that is losing money because the cash rent is too high. this report from the university of illinois extension todd gleason has a few simple guidelines one mimit follow to help them make that cision. those farmers thinking they can withstand a loss on a farm next year because the cash rent is too high should put things in a longterm perspective to see if its viable strategy. first and foremost says unersity of illinois agricultural economist gary schnitkey realistic expectations of future returns should be used. it is about long run prices. it has been suggested $4.60 corn and $10.60 soeans. some years we will be above at and some yearsrselow that. but if we are looking at our cash rent levels and plug in $4.60
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gains, then you must question if those rents are sustainable. if they are not, then lower those rents. here's the thing about using the long run corn and soybean midpoint prices. those are calculatedor thirty years worth of trade. usda's price outlook k rough 2020 doesn't en get close. it's a lot more like current prices and that's a whole different set of expectations. even if you thought, "just one more year, and the cash rene will come down to4a more reasonable level", that m mht not be the case. at our long run prices, $4.60 for corn and $10.60 for soybeans, an appropriate cash rent for central illinois would be about $250 per acre. thacash rent would generate a loss at the budgeted prices we are using for 2016, which are $3.90 for corn and $8.90 for soybeans. so, if
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losses. rents would need to go below $220 per acre in central illinois. obviously this is at a very high yield level compared to other parts of the corn belt. even if a farmer believes thee university of illinois long-runprices of $4.60 corn and $10.60 soybeans are accurate, there could be aelatively long period in which prices are bow the long-run average. these risks suggest using a variable sh rent lease might t the best answer.for the university of illinois extension, i'm todd gleason. cooler weather over the weekend now a warm up as hrvest rolls on. with more from around the e untry country mike hoffman joins us with cropwatch. good morning clinton. at this time of year, fid fires can quickly spread out of contro we heard about a quick thinking farmer in southcentral illinois who saved
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the "posting" on agweb, a farmer in scott county, illinois activated the pivots using his smartphone from miles away to help knock down flames. a neighbor also arrived with a disc to cut a fire-break. that papa of illinois is considered abnormally dry on the drought monitor. also on agweb -winter wheat seed isn't getting enough moisture to germinate. we heard from a farmer in montgomery county, missouri who says after the wettest spring e er, seed wheat just is just sitting. and this scenic view comes from northern st. joseph county indiana. you can see some of the foliage is starting to turn into those ll hues. others still have plenty of green. temperatures dipped below freezing over the weekend. and taking a look at the weather map today a big dome of high pressure keeping things mostly dry from the south east to the southern plains but things will be changing over the next couple of days i'll have your forecast in a couple of minutes cattle prices seeing momo strength to start the week...and a newew
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of the year. co-bank says it expects live cattle prices to have a strong year end. this follows on theeels of the steepest 30 day decline since 2003--that was the year bse was discovered in the u.s. co-bank says live cattle prices dropped 26 dollars per hundred in just 30 days...last week the 5 area price for slaughr steers in at 123-sp about 5 bucks in the last week but 40 dollars below last year. cobank expects these lower prices to be some what temporary. pces should recover between now and the end of the uear. longer term, however..2016 and 2017 prices are likely to trend dodoward, pressured by creasing supplies. on the retail side,eef prices fell for the fourth straight month...down to 6-23 a pound in september. also in washingto the president urging congress to vote on the trans pacificcpartnership beforereext year's lame duck session. the hill reporting...congressional aides say the vote is likely to take place during the lame duck
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session. white house press secretary josh earnest said "t(e timeline that we envision is shorter than that," other senior capitol aides from both partieie saying the vote e n't happen until after the 2016 elections. adding that waiting allows congressional members to take a tough vote on the free-trade deal without electoral consequences. up next we'll take a little closer look at the tpp and d at it could mean fororhe global milk situation and prices. tyne morgan joins us from the agribusiness desk. and later a high value crop is under seige from poachers. an interesting look at genseng and what's being done to protect these easured roots from robbers. american never stops growing. thanks to farm credit,
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ss--grains trade lower but livestock finding a bounce. lets seeonday's session ended from the floor of the cme. lower trade today across the floor. corn, soybeansnsand wheat all trading lower. wheat market is more of a weather market with a forecast for better rain potential in the great plains, as a cold front now located in the gulf of mexico pulls some tropical moisture norththy northwest into texas which will provide some better rain in some of the dryer areas. the market is really ignoring some pretty positive demand news with some more
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report for soybeans. so we're really focused on harvest. weather forecasts are calling for mostly drier weather as a i noticed here in the midwest. and a more normal precipitation patterns in brazil and argentina which will added planting prospects there. thanks very much, this is jack scoville, i'm of price futures group, here on the cmeroup floor with some comments for the market today. the tranpacific partnership involves 40 percent of the world's gross domestic product. and if approved american ag commodities are likely to see a big impact eventually. tyne morgan takes a closer took in today's analysis. we are here now with mike north of commodity risk managememt group. mike, when we look at dairy and tpp we are still trying to figure out all the details and the impact it's going to have on the dairy industry. but is it a non-issue you think for u.s. farmers? it appears that way right now and obviously you can see 11th hour rule changes that may upset the
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apple card and bring out some opportunity for us, but right now it looks pretty much like a wash and so it comes back to`if we are going to gain a a footing in the world market, it comes back to people inside the united states reaching out to buyers and other countries and making their own relationships happ. speaking of that, india hit market headlines last week talking about how they could grow past china. why is there so much energy and optimism around india for dairy right now? well, they are like y growing countru, their diet is expanding, t ty are looking at higher calorie diets w wh more flavorful foods and different options and cheese is hitting the store shelves. and what that means is that they will require more of their milk ihternal to make that cheese product and for eir other products they are going to need to bring in so
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concentrates, some o` these other products that are mobile and can get into the country without refrigeration and provide them with some of these core ingredients that they are going to need and so it opens the door for us to maybe push some powder into that market and expand our reach. and does that really help us, because when you look it kes up more fluid milk to make some of those products, so when you are looking at some of those for in user products going to areas like that is it an optimistic factor for the dairy industry. yeah, absolutely, y expansion product usage in any market allows us to come in and backkfill some of those products where milk got robbed from, so it's always a good thing and for us right now as we depend more and more on exports to keep ovr growing dairy industry running on all eight cylinders, it's a great thing to see this happen. all right, thanks so much mike. stay with us, we have much more coming up on agday, when we come
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back. cuthrough the uncertainy in the markets. give mike a call at 888-747-08484agday -brought to you by basf. grow smartrtith
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&welcome back to agday. here wiwi meteorologist mike e ffman. we've been watching on the drought monitors, areas in texas and louisiana really dry. but do
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you think so hope this week. yea, we talked about this over the weekend. we're still looking at later in the week something in the western gulf. probably not a opical system but something with a lot of moisture in it.t.ight now though we'r'r just seeing a few showers in the western gulf. some of those will be trickling into parts of tx the next couple of days. high pressure dominating the southeast,the ohio valley, tennessee valley most of centraland southern plainy keeping things dry in ose areas. front to the north, will dip i io new england to central portions of great lakes causing some scattered showers in that ara. and a fair amount of moisture in the 4 corners region as you n se a slow moving area of low pressure continues to move thru that area, so we'll be watching that systeteas well. so let's put the maps into motion through the day tonight and into tomorrow morning, you can see the cold front by morning into central iowa. not a lot of moisture along that cold front so f!r. few scattered showers from the great lakes into the northeast as you can see, but high pressure still keeping most of the southern corn belt and
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parts of colorado, easter utah, parts ofew mexico as well. then as we head through the day tomorrow you'll see that increasing amount of moisture in the southern and western portions of texas, but that's even out ahead of that storm system we talked about off the top ofhe show. that's just going to be an increasing of moisture type situation in tixas which is great news for r at whole area. you u n see widespread showers, new mexico, northern and western texas, also across the great lakes. checking precipitation estimates over the past 24 hrs, we just haven't seen a wle lot. a couple of@ spots in the northeast. few areas out west and have continued to see some showers and some spots gotten a half inch or more. add on the next 36 hrs, we'll definitely see some more moisture. that would be a lot for west texas and eastern new mexi. we'll see if that works out. that computer model shows 2-2-inches in some of thth area. but again we'll be seeing that increased moisture in that part of the country. but most of
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over the next 36-48 hours. high temps this afternoon, warming up to 70's and 80's as you can see there e to the central and southern plains. still on the cool side in the appalachians and into the northeast. l;ow temps tonite will drop off into the east. and especially out west dropping intohe 40s in both of those locations. a few 30s in the northeast and northern portions of the rockies. high temps tomorrow afternoon that heat begins to come into the miss valley, ohio va with highs in upper 60s, lower 70s ported in that area. here's the jet stream. youan see the big trou out west gets cut off for a little while. a little trough moving thru the great lakes and northeast. a quick cool down there. and then the main trough comes east. and it'll be a sharper cool down as we head thru theeekend into earlier next week for areas from central plains into the east coast areas. that's a look across the country now let's look at some local forecasts. for ogden utah today, clouds a shower or t'showers possible in
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warm. high of 75. and nashville, tennessee partly to mostly sunny skies. pleasant. high around 73. up next in our dairy today report, the world's largest yogurt maker has positive expectations for profits in europe. and the root of the genseng plant has long been treasured for it's medicinal properties in eastern medicine. but the high dollar cash crop is underseige from poacher. we'll see how owers are hoping to protect these plpnts today on in the country. this is machinery pete invnving you to check oututmy new website -machinery -offering farmers tens of thousands of used equipnt
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world seeing a strong third quarter. danone rolling out earnings and predicting a rebound for the european dairy
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business next year. the paris based company says revenues increased four point 6 percent. it says lower milk costs are making yogurt profitablelend it expects that to continue through 2016. in europe fresh dairy sales rose a half leaders say they expect things to stabilize in the next year. also on thetrans pacific partrship the national farmers union sing the free trade deal could be the beginning of the end for canada's supply management. the union says the canadian government is likely to provide more than 4 billion dollars relief to dairy farmers over the next 10 to 15 years. that compensation wou be much higher than the losses dairy fafaers would experience from a quota cut. nfu says the large dollar amount suggests the intent is to dismantle dairy supply mangement in canada over the next decade. where do you think amicans find a trusted source of food information--other than agday of course. well a recent survey by the chicago council on global affairs found that more than 70 percent of americans believes
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documentaries are trustwthy sources of fooinformation. to be fair, documentaries did fall in the middle of the pack. the rvey found health professionals rank the highest at 85 percent, followed by friends and family at 83 percent, farmers at 82 percent. and only 38 percent find blogs and social media credible. when we come back...protecting genseng production. see how growers are working stop poaching and prote this forrest favorite. agday-brought to you b! yamaha, makers of viking side by sides-
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in thcountry brought to you byhe all new kubota ssv series
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delired. visit your local bota dealer to test drive one today forest growers could help sustain wild populations of erican ginseng, a mecinal plant prized in asia that is threatened by poaching and ls of habitat. thth're using a new labeling program to spread awareness about the coveted roots. michael rubinkam of the associated press has our sto. it's harvest time in denny colwell's prized ginseng patch. he's spent decades in the forest o tending to a plant that's highly sought after in asia. "i love it in the woods to begin with. it's the way my granddad's always done it. i'm carrying on the tradition. i l le the quality i get by forest-grown." experts say forest growers like colwell could help conserve wild populations of american ginseng, which has been overharvested, and threatened by poaching and loss of habitat loss. "we want more and more people to feel comfortable with growing this
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plant. the future is in conservati through cultivation." penn state university plant researcher eric burkhart is heing recruit growers into a new program for forest-grown ginseng. st american ginsengngs mass produced on farms in wisconsin. "the more that we can get people growing it on forest lands, the more we can not only conserve the species, but we provide people with an economic income opportunity that is mething more than timber." exports account for most u.s..production. roots are worth hundreds _ even thousands of dollars a pound. but randy yenzi says growing the plant isn't as easy as throwing some seedn ththground. forest farmeme often wait at least 10 years before harvesting, because older roots are more valuable. "if you want to makit quick, don't evenstart planting ginse, because there's no way of making quick money in this game." poachchs are denny colwell's biggest concern. he estimates he's lost
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installed on his property caught this poach in the act. "the poaching is a major problem for any grower of any size. even growers that aren't of any size. people areooking for it and if they find it, they don't care that it's not thrs. any ginseng he doesn't harvest is weed whacked to the ground, hidden from thieves to grow another year. backers say the new labeling program could help grow demand in the united states o. betting that conscientious consumers will pay a premium for forest-grown g gseng. michael rubinkam, associated press that's all the time we have this morning. we're glad you tuned in. for mike hoffman, and tyne morgan. i'm clinton griffiths. have a greatatay. high strength steel for high strength dependability, the chevy silverado is the official news
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