tv This Week With George Stephanopoulos ABC November 4, 2018 8:00am-8:58am PST
good morning from abc news election headquarters. welcome to a special edition of "this week." race to the finish. 48 hours to go. >> this is one of the most important elections of our entire lives. >> the closing arguments. >> we have to crack down on sanctuary cities. >> stop the walls of separation. >> georgia can do more, can be more. >> everything that you voted for is on the line. >> political star power. >> you can vote for politics that's decent, that's honest, l. >> the choice in this election could not be more simple. >> y'all are on the very precipice of an historical election. >> go get em, donald.
>> and white-hot rhetoric. >> if you don't want america to be overrun by masses of illegal aliens, giant caravans you better vote republican. >> democrats, we choose hope over fear. unity over division. >> republicans banking on the economy and the kavanaugh effect. democrats campaigning to preserve health care. our country's future at stake. this morning, our election team standing by with the races to watch. plus our brand-new polls. from fivethirtyeight. from abc news election headquarters it's "this week." here now, chief anchor george stephanopoulos. hello, again. you can see that we're broadcasting this morning from our election headquarters here in new york. this is erto go.
for what's shaping up to the most consequential election in years. it feels like a presidential election. americans are engaged. passions high. early voting through the roof and president trump is campaigning as if he were on the ballot. one way he is. if democrats win the house or the senate tuesday night, trump will wake up to a very different presidency wednesday morning. our brand-new abc news/"washington post" poll shows the president coming into these midterms with the lowest approval of any president since harry truman. he's at 40%, with 53% disapproving of trump's performance. it's the lowest on record. 59% of likely voters say it's important for them to vote shares their opinion of president trump. democratic house candidates lead republicans by 8 points among likely voters, 52% to 44%. that's down from 14 points from last month. the republican base is clearly re-energized in the wake of the kavanaugh hearings
and the democratic edge among independent women is shrinking. on the issues, the republicans have an edge on handling the economy. as president trump trains his fire on that migrant caravan, our poll shows split view. voters trust republicans by ten-point margin on border security. we have a lot to analyze here with our team. i want to bring in tom llamas. tom, we'll be focusing tuesday on two key numbers. the two numbers we show right there, 23 and 2. the house changes hands if the democrats pick up 23. gain of 2 to change control. let's start with the house. >> that's right, george. we're tracking the house races. we identified more than a hundred competitive house races. these are the congressional str
suburbs and excerpts and we see some clusters in the northeast, new york, pennsylvania, florida, virginia, but we're also watching some red states, kentucky, kansas, texas, and in the blue state of california, we're tracking nearly a dozen races. we have taken the competitive races. this is our chip board. aligning them by the way the polls close. remember that key number, george, 23, that's how many seats democrats have to flip. they may have an advantage historically we have never seen a democratic battleground this big. there's a couple of reasons. a quarter of these districts, hillary clinton actually won but republicans hold power. in others, republicans were retired and even more they're the democrats are excited about their candidates. >> the senate? > the senate a different story. when we flip over to our battleground board over here. the democratic seats. we're tracking 35 races. let's go to the
map right now, these are all the senate races. we identified 14 key races. george, as you said, the republicans have an advantage of two seats here. there are a lot of seats that democrats hold in missouri, indiana and north dakota. this was trump country and they have a democratic senator, but there are some races where democrats feel they have an advantage because of republican retirements. in tennessee and arizona. we'll be watching all those, george. >> lot of seats to watch. i want to bring in nate silver. your forecast looking ahead to tuesday night, pretty much mirrors what we're seeing in the house? >> for sure. who's playing defense, in the house, we have democrats with a 4 in 5 chance of winning the house. the national polls are pretty good for democrats. the districts polls are very good for democrats. they're pretty deep into red territory. in the senate it's the reverse. the gop, 6 in 7 chance of holding on. democrats are playing defense in areas they hold. the terrain there is extremely red. if polls are right, you'd have a split outcome.
>> polls have a wide margin of error. rick, our political director, this race is hard to model with the turnout? >> eight points is exactly where democrats need to be, right on the cusp of where they need to be to have a good shot of taking the majority. if you narrow it down to the batt battleground districts, democrats are depending on groups that don't typically turn out in midterm elections. bottom line, george, they need them to vote. we're talking about younger voters, nonwhite voters. they're telling pollsters they're going to vote in unprecedented numbers. but th >> nate, let's educate folks on probability. going into the 2016 election, the house.ast was actually lowe
break down statistically what that means. >> so what our forecast accounts for polls being wrong. how much uncertainty there is in the forecast. the range of outcomes in the house is really wide. our range covers 80% of the outcomes, on the low end 15 democratic pickups all the way up to the low to mid 50s. most of those are above 23. which is how many seats they'd need to take the house. >> and one of the big x factors you've written about this year is unusually for midterms, the democrats have a fund-raising advantage in the final days. >> there are lots of districts on the board, where there are republican incumbents where seats are ordinary safe. you have a democrat who's raised twice as much money. their voters are very
enthusiastic. there are a lot of republicans who will not be sleeping well tonight and tomorrow night. that's why if democrats beat their polls, that can happen, that happened in virginia, in the governor's race last year, then we're talking about very big numbers. republicans in the house and the landslide if you will, that's as good as we can do in the polls. >> okay, let's broaden out the conversation a little bit. another unusual thing about this election is the ferocity of president trump's campaigning. both in volume and what he's talking about in the final days. here's a little bit of what he's done in the last three days. >> republicans want strong borders, no drugs, no gangs, and we want no caravans. thank you. >> democrats are openly encouraging millions of illegal aliens to break our laws, violate our sovereignty, overrun our borders and destroy our nation. >> there are some bad people, as i said -- bad hombres in that group.
>> chief white house correspondent jon karl here with me. the presid >> george, with a president presiding over an economy as good as this one, stay the course. the economy is booming. let's keep with this. instead it's midnight in america in trump's campaign rallies. he's counting on fear and loathing to rally his base. it is a gamble. the gamble here is they need to get republicans as energized as the democrats. largely, they have done it. 80% of both sides said they're definitely going to vote. but the gamble here is, is he alienating those independent and moderate voters? it's a serious risk. they've gotten their bases energized. going to those rallies, i'm telling you, you see trump
>> even though, cecilia vega, that argument regardless of the facts. >> not just a campaign in the last two, three weeks basedn fearmongering but on misinformation and spreading falsehood. i'm struck by our poll on immigration. 6 out of 7 issues. that hasn't changed despite president trump's repeated hammering on this issue. it really has the potential to backfire. >> martha raddatz, one of the president hasn't been deterred by is the pushback from the military. now 15,000 troops heading to the border. general mattis is going along with it, not so much former leaders. >> definitely not, former leaders, including martin dempsey who tries to stay out of politics. couldn't help himself this week. tweetingour me laid, they meet threat with confidence. but a waistful deployment of
overstretched soldiers and made if they use force disproportional to the threat look, guys, don't pull your guns out if people are throwing rocks. we heard president trump talk about if there are rock throwers coming at them they would be seen as firearms. he did back off of that. and i have to think that someone like secretary mattis got to him. those troops won't follow any kind of illegal order. plus, they're back there with wire. it's those images. he's appealing to that base. he's got soldiers down there, the military in helmets and body armor, those are the images that his base will see and he thinks the migrants as well. >> let's bring in chris christie, former republican governor of new jersey. trump ally. address the argument that jon karl was making there.
is it wise to be focusing on this when you got an economy going gang busters? >> george, i think they may have made a strategic decision. which is, the house is much more difficult for them than the senate. they have a bunch of red state democrats who they want to try and get out of the senate. i think what you're seeing with the president is, he made a strategic decision, his ability to claim victory on election night will be by adding seats in the u.s. senate. he doesn't want to take the risk that he's trying too hard on the house. >> you started out by saying "they," but this is being driven by him? >> george, as i have said many times, he's his own strategist. he does not listen to other people generally in terms of political strategy. you see this from him getting involved in republican primaries early on this year.
very, very rarely you would see presidents do. he's gotten involved in many of them. many candidates on the ballot now is because of the president's direct intervention. so, he's his own strategist. when i say "they" i'm using the royal "they." >> democratic senate candidates claire mccaskill sort of aligning themselves on this immigration issue. >> she's facing an uphill battle. george, if democrats win on tuesday it's because they're campaigning on hope and they're focusing on healthcare and they are also trying to overcome the odds in these midterm elections by trying to fuel independents and millennials to come to the polls. we see an increase in what we call infrequent voters, they're more engaged, more positive about voting, that's a plus-sign for democrats. >> that's the hope with the
early vote for democrats, matthew dowd. one thing we saw back in 2016 is that those voters didn't come out, particularly latino voters, didn't vote in higher numbers despite the president's rhetoric on immigration. >> i think this election, like the trump's presidency, has a whole bunch of unique characteristics. our poll actually looks a lot like 2006. in 2006, the abc poll the democrats had a six-point advantage. there's unique circumstances. we have never had a president go into an election with a economy like this and job approval in the low 40s. and we have never had an election where both sides are motivated. >> i want to pick up on that and bring this to jon karl as well. i remember 1994 very well. president clinton didn't go out and campaign a lot in the final days.
going to stay home. >> no, and if you go back to pre-kavanaugh, there were real concerns among republicans that they weren't as energized. the idea driven by the president but also by some of his political advisers you had to find a way to get the base to turn out in 2016. so the president has thrown himself right into this. he's out there nonstop. george, to the point about the house, he's not touching any of the areas -- >> they don't want him there. >> they don't want him there. he's not going there. he's campaigning in the states he won campaigning in those areas of the states where he's popular. >> george, let me just say this look is the florida senate race and the wisconsin governor's race. in the florida state you have two-term governor rick scott against bill nelson. in wisconsin, scott walker
looking for a fourth term. it's going to tell us a lot about voters how they feel about politicians. in those states so key to the presidential election, we'll see what happens there in terms of the republican intensity. if scott and walker win, then i think it's going to be a decent night for republicans. >> matthew dowd, you've been talking about the fact that we haven't been paying enough attention to the governor races right now. huge potential to many flips to democrats on governor races. that could have a much higher long-term impact. >> obviously, everyone in america is concerned about who's going to hold the house and the senate. when you look at politics going forward in the last 20, 30 years, it's the governor races in purple states. it's where republicans have held the office -- florida, michigan, wisconsin, iowa, ohio -- there's a real high chance they lose in all of those places. when te aces,
it not only affects what might happen today sh, what happens i 2020 presidential, it affects redistricting. to me, yes, we have two big things to watch, the house and senate. to me, what's going to impact going forward is those governor races in purple states. >> donna, everybody else is looking at the possibility of having the first african-american governors of florida and georgia. >> it's going to be a historic night. in addition to andrew gillum, stacey abrams, and ben jealous. 42% of all of the democratic nominees this fall. gubernatorial, senatorial, house candidates, are women. it depends on women coming out to vote and other infrequent voters. >> as bad as the map is for democrats on the senate side, it's that bad for republicans on the governor's side.
of the 36 governor races, 26 are republican defenses. >> and of course you were a governor. explain what te crge. >> you control the political apparatus in your state. you control who's counting the votes most of the time. who's the secretary of state, the chief election officer. going forward from there, you control redistricting after the census, at least have a very large influence over it. as matthew aptly puts, it's not only happens tomorrow but in 2021, 2022, on redistricting these house seats which will have a huge difference. that's been the republican's huge advantage. '09 and '10 set the stage for a republican decade. >> keep in mind, the president is the president today. because he won three states in those purple states in the midwest by less than 100,000 votes. the likelihood that each of those have arge blue wave is ve. pennsylvania republicans have no chance. michigan, it looks like the democrat is going to win the gove governship
democrats' favor. >> martha, matthew dowd talked about pennsylvania. one place democrats are hoping to pick up house seats. >> exactly. when you talk to voters in pennsylvania, especially in those suburbs, and some of those who voted for donald trump, he's gone too far for many of them. he's too divisive for them. for them, he's absolutely the issue. >> we're likely to see in congress no matters on tuesday night. a record number of women running. >> record number of women and lgbtq candidates. but we can focus on the president's travel and that tells us where he's looking. going back to florida, he's headed to florida twice in the last week. he's very concerned about having to win that state not just for
now but for 2020. >> okay, everybody, stand by. we'll be back. coming up next, party leaders make their closing arguments. rnc chair ronna mcdaniel and the chair of the dnc, chris van hollen. what do ya think? sidekick material? eh? superhero: i seriously can't deal with you today. mucinex cold & flu all-in-one. fights... oh no. no-no-no. sore throat, fever, cough, sinus pressure, chest congestion, headache, nasal congestion, body pain... all in one did you really need the caps lock? superhero: hold this. finally, a piece of the actiooooon! get tough on cold and flu symptoms. mucinex cold and flu all-in-one. but some give their clients cookie cutter portfolios. fisher investments tailors portfolios to your goals and needs. some only call when they have something to sell. fisher calls regularly so you stay informed.
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they won't try to erase our gains and eradicate our progress. that's what's going to happen. they're going to work hard and we will be fighting. it will be -- it will be ridiculous, frankly, it will be bad for our country. the democrats. it could happen. it could happen. we're doing very well and we're doing really well in the senate. but it could happen. you know what you do? my whole life. you know what i say, don't worry about it i'll just figure it out. does that make sense? i'll just figure it out. >> president trump in west virginia this week. joined now by the chair of the republican national committee, ronna mcdaniel. thank you for joining us this morning. unusually a subdued president there, almost resigned to losing the house, are you?
>> absolutely not, especially with the economic numbers that we saw on friday with 250,000 jobs added to the economy, with wages over 3% for the first time in a decade. i mean, the american voters are looking at what's happened over the past two years. they're making more money. more jobs are coming back. that's a great closing argument in a lot of these houses races within the margin of error. their going to say, the republicans have offered a record of results and democrats are offering resistance and going back. >> you say it's a great closing argument, how come the president isn't making it? >> he has. he's talking about many different things that he's accomplished as president. the list is so long. i think he's highlighting the fact that we need immigration reform. democrats aren't coming to the table on that, strengthening our military, taking care of our veterans. the national security issues that he's taken on -- north korea, iran and syria. but the economy is a driving
force with the tax cuts and the deregulation. people's lives are better. they're taking home more money to spend on their lives and that's a very compelling argument for many of these voters across the country. who they want to keep in the majority. republicans are the party who have delivered. >> you want voters focused on the economy on tuesday. the president every single day over the last week has talked about immigration, talking about sending troops, talking about the migrant caravan, even tweeting out that ad that the president put out illegal immigration, showing that illegal immigrant who committed murder blaming that on democrats. that has caused even some republicans to react. john kasich, republican governor of ohio, tweeted out, the politics of fear, hatred and division should have no place in our country or
the republican party. let alone the presidency. americans should reject this. do you? >> i think the president is highlighting a failure in our immigration system. that this disgusting person got -- >> he blamed it on democrats. >> he don't want that in our immigration system. obviously, we recognize that we have a broken immigration policy right now in this country with these caravans coming toward our country. with 12,000 kids that have come unaccompanied, that are coming on their own, parents want to get into this country. i know why they want to get here. our economy is doing great. we have lot of jobs. the president has said, let's get merit-based immigration. let's focus on eliminating the visa lottery system. something that canada doesn't do. let's strength our border. democrats won't come to the table on an important issue. because they refuse to work with the president. he's closing with the argument, we're the party of results and they're the party of resistance. >> there's division within the republican party.
on immigration, as well. you're not concerned about the possibility. that the president's focused on immigration. the ads like that is going to cause a backlash in the suburban districts you need to hold, in order to hold the house. >> i'm with the president at these rallies. the president is talking about these accomplishments. the media is focused on immigration, i get that. he's focused on economy. he's talking about the jobs and the lowest unemployment in history for the african-american and hispanic communities. our country is on a great comeback. the fact that nancy pelosi said she's going to raise taxes and the president recognizes the historical trends. with the house and the senate. he's doing everything he can to turn out every vote with his exhaustive schedule. but there's a whole variety of issues he's talking about, accomplishments he's made as president that made
safer and given the american people more jobs, more money and a comeback that frankly a lot of democrats didn't think it was possible. >> chairman mcdaniel, you blame the media, but it's the president himself who said he wants the election to be about the caravan. >> the president hasn't said he wants it just about to be about the caravan. he's talking about the economy. it's not getting the same coverage. remember, president obama said, we'll never get above 2% gdp and now we're at 3.5% gdp, over 4% in some cases. we have seen 4 million people go off of food stamps. we've seen 4 million new jobs come to this country. the good things to talk about. the president is talking about it and a lot of other things. >> where do the house and senate stand wednesday morning? >> it's tight, george.
it's tight. it going to depend on voter turnout on election day. democratic enthusiasm is definitely there. we're seeing that in the early voting in all of these key house and senate races and the republicans have been matching. so, literally, election day voting is going to determine the balance of house. i'd say that there are 27 seats within the margin of error. obviously, we have had wins with 44 retirements and the historical trends on the house. but i feel like we can still keep the majority and the senate is a better map. if we keep the senate that would be defying history, as well, usually you lose three seats. >> ronna, thank you very much. we bring in the democratic senate campaign committee, senator van hollen. you just heard the predictions there from ronna mcdaniel. it's true that your democratic senators are up against the wall on tuesday.
are you confident that you can take the senate? >> well, george, it's great to be with you. here's where we are. we have a lot of races within the margin of error. i won't make predictions. as you discussed earlier in this program, senate democrats really face the toughest political map in 60 years. it's remarkable that we're in a strong a position as we are. and that's a testament to our senators and to our democratic candidates who are running as candidates who are going to stand up for their states. their job is to put politics aside. stand up for their states. sometimes that means working with president trump if it's good for their state and sometimes it means opposing the president if it's bad for their state. like the president's effort, the republicans' effort of taking away protection for pre-existing conditions. >> you have seen, your democratic senator donnelly in
indiana is advertising about how much he's supporting president trump. it seems heitkamp in north dakota punished for the kavanaugh nomination. how democrats handled the kavanaugh nomination. any regrets? >> never count heidi heitkamp out. in her last election she was ten points down with a week to go. it's much closer in north dakota. don't count her out. the reality is, heidi did as she always does what she thought was the best thing for the country. sometimes that means supporting the president on issues as she did with the earlier justice gorsuch and sometimes that means opposing the president on these issues. >> how about bob menendez in new jersey? he was indicted, later acquitted on corruption issues, but he does seem to be in a tighter race in new jersey than you'd expect. are you confident he's going to pull it out? are you concerned that he may
bbe holding back democratic house candidates? >> i'm absolutely confident that bob menendez will win that race. the people of new jersey have been very clear they don't want a rubber stamp for donald trump and that's what bob menendez's opponent has done and will do and his opponent has spent $30 million of money that he gained as a ceo of a pharmaceutical company where he really gouged on prices for cancer patients. that's why you have a competitive race in new jersey. obviously, there are other issues bob menendez has to litigate, but people of new jersey don't want a donald trump rubber stamp. >> democrats hope to pick up seats in arizona and nevada. one x factor there is, will latino turn out there to vote? >> they will. we're seeing the early voting results in those states and you're seeing a good, healthy turnout among latino voters as well as younger voters and
you're seeing a pattern of good turnout for democrats and independents who are supporting democratic candidates around the country, george, and again, that issue that's been front and center for the last two years, the republican efforts to take away important health care protections, is one that senate republican candidates have been running away from their records on. and we're making sure that people know exactly what they did, which was vote either in the congress, the senate or through lawsuits to take away those protections for people with pre-existing conditions. i'll also say the republican senate leader's comments the other day about the republican plan to cut medicare and social security gives away their playbook. the debt went way up to $2 trillion as a result of the tax cut for big corporations. now they want to come back and take it out on people who have medicare and social security. >> you are you prepared for a
world wednesday where republicans pick up seats in the senate? >> george, we're prepared for whatever result we have. but let me just say, the fact that we still have a narrow path to a majority is a sea change from where we were 18 months ago and as i said, it's because our candidates have always said they'll stand up for their states, first and foremost, put aside the politics, do what's right, and we're seeing the results here. these are some very close races and of course, they're in states that donald trump won big and it's a testament to these candidates that they're so focused on what matters to people in their state. when it comes to healthcare, that's not a top-down issue. it's not like president trump going out there and talking about immigration and trying to divide people. and by the way, we have just seen a litany of documented false statements and lies from the president on that issue. but on the healthcare issue,
this is a bottom-up issue, when republicans tried to appeal the affordable care act, you found people in rural areas saying no. you found the american cancer society, the american diabetes association, all of these local chapters who have nothing to do with politics, said don't take away our protections for healthcare. yet, republicans continue to try to do that. >> senator, thanks very much. >> thank you. we'll be right back. >> announcer: "this week" with george stephanopoulos sponsored by raymond james. ♪ can i get some help. watch his head. ♪ i'm so happy. ♪ whatever they went through, they went through together. welcome guys. life well planned. see what a raymond james financial advisor can do for you.
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i want to bring in pierre thomas for more about voter suppression and access to the ballot. we're looking at this issue in several key states. >> right, georgia is one of them. there are about 50,000 votes that we have been paying attention to where there's some question with regard to voter registration. as it compares to other government records. 70% of the people are african-american. some people are very concerned about that. now, those people should be able to vote on election day if they show up with their proper i.d. but it will depend on how the polling stations deal with those individual voters. >> and in alaska. >> you have to have show a proof of residency when you vote. many of native americans who live on reservations haven't had those type of addresses. they've been trying in recent weeks to get specific addresses. it will depend on how each polling station will deal with
them when they comin vot >> the whole issue of ballot security, hacking into the election systems this year, several candidates have said they have been hacked. what's the state of ballot security? >> good news and bad news. good news, we're not seeing the level of russia activity that we saw in 2016. certainly nothing on the scale of hacking the dnc or the clinton campaign chairman john podesta. but you still see, according to some sources, the russians trying to affect the campaign through social media. putting out bad information, trying to sow seeds of division among americans. >> and the big social media companies, like facebook, still haven't figured out how to deal with it. >> they say they're trying harder. facebook in fact talked about how they set up a war room. they got about 20,000 employees working on this. twitter said they have identified thousands of accounts in which people were trying to sow disinformation, they have taken down those accounts.
we're talking about millions of these accounts, it's an ongoing threat. >> you're tracking these issues on election night. pierre thomas, thanks very much. pierre thomas, thanks very much. i'm dianne feinstein and i approve this message. "look what she's accomplished... she authored the ban on assault weapons... pushed the desert protection act through congress, and steered billions of federal dollars to california projects such as subway construction and wildfire restoration." "she... played an important role in fighting off ...trump's efforts to kill the affordable care act." california news papers endorse dianne feinstein for us senate. california values senator dianne feinstein
for more on this. we don't know what will happen tuesday night. democrats hopeful they'll take control of to house. talk about their plans if that happen. >> if the democrats take control of the house, they'll likely put the trump administration under an intense microscope, they'll launch investigations into conflict of interests to the president's tax returns and the issue of russian collusion. but there's a political risk here for democrats, they'll have to show that they can legislate not just investigate. first up, expect them to address something to address corruption in government. they're well aware that americans are fed up with washington. send a message that there's a new sheriff in town. >> if the republicans hold the house? >> if republicans hold the house, more of the same. congress will continue to act in the way that they have. there's no big rush of legislation.
no immig standing in the wing here, while republicans are running on these issues there's no big legislative push here to back that up. >> if the republicans hold the house, likely to see a serious fight for the speaker. >> paul ryan is out. a huge fight to replace paul ryan. lot of names being floated. kevin mccarthy. steve scalise, and the far right, jim jordan, lot of names will be fighting to be speaker of house. >> and if democrats take the house, no guarantee that nancy pelosi will be the house speaker. >> no, george, whether or not t they won't support pelosi and you'll see likely lot of calls for new blood in democratic leadership. that said, pelosi has a lot of experience and he knows how to pass bills.
>> okay, mary bruce, thanks very much. back here with the analysts. couple of questions for donna and chris. donna, first, on that question i just posed to mary bruce, how big a margin that the democrats need for nancy pelosi guaranteed to be the speaker. >> first of all, nancy pelosi is one of the best in the democrat caucus. i wouldn't throw her under the bus right now because she knows how to win. she raised over $130 million for democrats across the country. one of the reasons why we have a diverse line of candidates is because nancy pelosi went out there and encouraged those candidates to run. i see nancy pelosi -- i mean, she's going to fight like hell. there is call for new bladsh. remember, george, 15% to 20% of those newly elected democrats they'll look for someone who can carry the mantle for them in 2020 and beyond. >> chris, for the white house, a
house withey subpoena is bra re? >> they're getting a new white house counsel, who should be in place in time for january and, you know, if it's democratic house their main job could be a subpoena processor over at the white house. but i think there's real political risk in that as well. we saw that happen with the republican house with bill clinton in the '90s. if you go too aggressive in that regard, there could be a backlash against those people. i bet every dollar i have in my pocket, if they win the house, nancy pelosi will be speaker if they win the house. she'll be speaker. >> we'll all be here on tuesday night. i want to get everybody's take on what th what's the big thing you'll be watching tuesday night. >> i think i'm going beyond tuesday night. one thing we watch tuesday night is not whether the democrats gain control of the house but it's also people campaign and
what this has meant about these incendiary ads, that's a lesson that everyone will learn going forward not just in 2020 but beyond. is this the kind of fearmongering that works. if it does you'll see a lot more of it. >> jon karl. >> i'm watching pennsylvania. trump won the state. by 40,000 votes. a key reason he's president. the republican could lose up to eight seats in pennsylvania. almost certain to lose two because of redistricting. how they do between that margin will determine largely where we go in the house. >> i'm looking at the suburbs, the seventh congressional district in virginia, you have a newcomering looking to unseat a third-term republican there. will there be a so-called pink wave? ushering out a trump supporter in a trump district. we'll see. >> matthew dowd? >> i'm watching independents and that's going to determine who wins this.
why donald trump is president of the united states. a specific race people should be aware of is the beto o'rourke/ted cruz race in texas. that race is closer than what people think. they're very concerned, first time they have been concerned about losing a statewide race in texas in 20 years. >> an opportunity to talk about the early vote. just saw this come in overnight, already more people have voted in the state of texas, two days out from the vote, than voted in the entire of 2014. >> they're thinking that vote in texas. most of the growth in those -- new people, young people and latinos. >> beto o'rourke wins in texas he's atop the pack of 2020. >> he's already a rock star. he'll become the biggest rock star. >> donna? >> i'm watching the oprah effect. i'm watching georgia, stacey abrams is finishing up her campaign on education.
i want to see her win and i want to see her win decisively. i'm watching the other states as well, includes florida. >> there's another race in georgia, though, if stacey abrams does well, if neither she nor brian kemp get 50% there's a runoff in the state of georgia. secondly, does she have the strength to cover mcbath in another key race? >> absolutely. look, she has done something that democrats should have done a long time ago, that's she expanded the electorate, she campaigned in rural areas. like doug wilder who won back in 1989. stacey abrams under that in order to win you had to bring a new energy to the party and she's done that. >> florida and wisconsin as i said before, will be key to watch. who's had a good night and a bad night from the parties? if you see the oklahoma governorship go to the democrats, it's going to be a very bad night for republicans. if you see the united states senate seat in new jersey going to republicans, it's going to be
a very bad night for democrats. >> nate silver you'll be adjusting your forecast throughout the evening. give us a sense. >> you have a two-part election. you have the north and the south. we expect that democrats will gain a lot of seats in the northeast, pennsylvania for example, we expect they'll do very well in governships. in the midwest, they'll have to win tennessee or texas. at least one of those. they'll have to hold in florida. put these suburban atlanta districts in play. the senate might get interesting because of a race like texas. >> rick, you'll be behind the scenes on tuesday night. e ying to len lessons from the lascouple of elections. as we forecast otuday night. we have had some bad exit polls. 2004, 2016. talk about how we're going to communicate with voters during the night and our decision desk. >> we don't know what we don't
know. we'll be as transparent as possible about why we're not comfortable on particular races. we'll try to convey the true uncertainty. >> jon karl, you have said several times, we have to be prepared to be surprised on tuesday. >> i'll be surprised if i'm not surprised. i could see us being surprised by a much bigger blue wave than we have anticipated. i'd also not be surprised if we see the republicans do surprisingly well. we just don't know. it's so much harder to poll in a midterm election and so much harder to poll in these house races. we just don't know. the intensity is so high that also adds to the uncertainty. >> and why it's going to be so all of you. that's all for us today. thank you for sharing part of your sunday with us. we'll be back here on tuesday