>> announcer: "this week" with george stephanopoulos starts right now. closing in. >> we're talking. we're talking. >> democrats try to unify on president biden's investment plans. >> but do you feel like a deal is close? >> i think it's very possible. >> the american people want us to act, and i think we're going to have to aggressively come together to do that. >> we've got a lot of action going on. >> as the price tag shrinks, what's in? what's out? the latest on the negotiations. and -- >> we now have booster recommendations for all three authorized covid-19 vaccines. >> the cdc green lights mixing boosters. the fda finds vaccines for children safe and effective. dr. anthony fauci joins us live. plus, the growing threat of china. >> i don't want a cold war with china. i just want to make china understand we are not going

epk. ai trail. h stakes on th >> this race has got the full attention of the entire united states of america. >> so what is this race going to say about the midterms? >> i think this race is going to set the tone, i hope for the democratic party. >> jonathan karl reports from virginia, and our powerhouse round table weighs in on all the week's politics. good morning, and welcome to "this week." it was an intense one on capitol hill, and the campaign trail. democrats worked behind closed doors to find a compromise on president biden's build back better agenda, and voted overwhelmingly to hold top trump adviser steve bannon in contempt for failing to testify on the january 6th insurrection, and in virginia, the governor's race now a dead heat. how that turns out a key signal for both the president and his

predecessor. we're going to cover it all this morning with our round table, and we begin with congressional correspondent rachel scott tracking all the week's developments on capitol hill. >> reporter: with his agenda on the line, and his credibility at stake, this week the president it done. >> we can afford to do this. we can't afford not to do it. >> reporter: after months of party infighting, stalled negotiations and missed deadlines, a new sense of urgency from the president now setting clear expectations. >> we all never believed from the beginning we would get anything done. i think we have a deal. >> reporter: that deal would be far from what he wanted or promised. faced with republican opposition and a split within the democratic party, the president was forced to abandon proposals he campaigned on. tuition-free community college likely dropped.

paid family leave could be cut from 12 weeks to 4 weeks, and the $300 monthly child tax credit will only be extended for an additional year. >> is that enough to you? >> as far as i'm concerned, a one-year expansion is a death sentence for the child tax credit. >> reporter: the total price tag would also be lowered from $3.5 trillion to just under $2 trillion. >> everyone is going to have to compromise if we're going to find that legislative sweet spot we can all get behind. nobody will get everything they want. >> reporter: president biden pulling back the curtain on the sensitive negotiations, detailing the resistance from two moderate holdouts, senators joe manchin of west virginia and kyrsten sinema of arizona. >> when you are in the united states senate and you're the president of the united states and you have 50 democrats, every one is a president. >> reporter: manchin at odds with the party over how to tackle climate change, a central focus of the president's foreign trip in the coming days, and sinema rejecting biden's proposals to pay for the sweeping new programs. >> she says she will not raise a single penny in taxes on the corporate side and/or on wealthy people. >> reporter: her opposition frustrating progressives. >> let's just at least restore the tax rate to what it was

before donald trump did his tax cuts. to me, it's just ridiculous. >> reporter: and leaving the white house scrambling for other alternatives. >> can this package be paid for without a corporate tax increase? >> yes, absolutely. we can also close loopholes for high income americans and crack down on tax cheats. >> reporter: democrats hope the framework on the spending bill will give them enough votes in the house to move forward this week on the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package. the nation's crumbling infrastructure hitting farmers hard here in the mississippi delta. they're saying for too long, too many bridges like this one have been closed down. what is your message to lawmakers about funding bridges like these to be prepared? >> we just need a steady stream of funding. >> and can this issue wait? >> no. we've already waited. >> reporter: with democrats' all or nothing strategy, any federal funding to help rebuild the nation's roads and bridges will have to wait until they strike a deal on the entire agenda.

>> thanks to rachel for that. that's where things stand on capitol hill. now the campaign trail, and this year's marquee matchup in virginia. with foempl former democratic governor terry mcauliffe squaring off against glenn youngkin. donald trump and joe biden looming over the race. our chief washington correspondent jon karl joins us from charlottesville. good morning, jon. >> reporter: good morning, george. the eyes of the political world are on virginia where the democratic candidate is trying to win with some help from president joe biden, and the republican candidate is trying to win by staying away from donald trump. >> get out there. get to work. >> reporter: it's crunch time in the virginia governor's race. joe biden won this state by 10 points, but with just over a week until election day, this race is a tossup. terry mcauliffe, a fixture of national democratic politics for decades and virginia's former

governor is facing off against republican glenn youngkin, foer top execuvet the carlisle group who has never run for political office before. >> you need someone with some experience. >> do you want tired or recycled policies from a tired politician or do you want to embrace someone new? >> reporter: virginia was once a solidly conservative state, but no more. it's been 12 years since republicans won any statewide office here at all. over the summer though, polls showed mcauliffe with a narrow lead, and polls now consistently show the race statistically tied. this race is about more than just virginia. it's a key test of the current president's agenda, the shadow cast by the former president, and the first major indication of what lies ahead for the midterm elections. from joe biden to barack obama who campaigned for mcauliffe in richmond yesterday, mcauliffe has tapped the biggest names in the democratic party to give his campaign some much needed energy.

>> we've got stacey abrams here, two visits by the president, a visit by the former president, obama, a visit by the first lady, a visit by the vice president. why all the -- why do you need all the help? >> we did this last time. i mean, we did the same thing in '13. we bring them in. this is the biggest race in america. who doesn't want to be here? >> reporter: for the most part, glenn youngkin is keeping prominent republicans on the sidelines. he has donald trump's endorsement, but he hasn't done a single campaign event with trump and rarely talks about him. not surprising given trump is deeply unpopular in virginia, but youngkin hasn't been able to avoid trump entirely. the former president called into a recent virginia republican event. >> i hope glenn gets in there, and he'll straighten out virginia, lower taxes, do all the things we want a governor to do. >> reporter: it was an event that bizarrely included a pledge of allegiance to a flag said to be on display during the january 6th rally before the capitol riot. mcauliffe of course, pounced. >> they did the pledge of allegiance to a flag that was

used to bring down the democracy that that american flag symbolizes. >> reporter: youngkin wasn't at the event and denounced the january 6th pledge. >> i wasn't involved in that at all. that's the whole idea of the flag thing seems kind of weird to me and it was wrong. >> reporter: youngkin turned down repeated requests over the last several weeks for an interview with "this week." his campaign says he's not doing any natititial ber views, but h has been a regular on fox news. >> he's a total wannabe donald trump. he's been endorsed by donald trump four times. >> terry, you just made folks in las vegas a lot of money. there's an over/under tonight on how many times you're going to say donald trump, and it was ten, and you busted through it. >> you're not running against donald trump. you're running against glenn youngkin. >> i'm running against trump's divisive culture wars and trump's policies.

glenn youngkin has brought every one of his policies. this sets the tone for the state, and it's an important message for this country. >> reporter: mcauliffe has suggested his struggles to put up a big lead or a reflection of joe biden's struggles. >> the president is unpopular today unfortunately here in virginia, so we have got to plow through. >> reporter: mcauliffe caused some of his own troubles on the issue of education when he defended his decision as governor keep parents from pulling books some deemed sexually explicit out of school libraries by saying this. >> i'm not going to let parents come into schools and actually take books and make their own decisions. i don't think parents should be telling schools what they should teach. >> reporter: that last line quickly made its line into a youngkin ad. >> and terry went on the attack against parents.

>> reporter: with just days to go, there's no race in the country right now political leaders in both parties are paying more attention to than virginia's. what is this race going to say about the midterms? >> i think this race is going to set the tone, i hope, for the democratic party. >> reporter: so if you lose, it's a bad, bad sign. >> we're not going to lose, jon. who thinks like that? >> reporter: the biggest challenge for terry mcauliffe is energizing democratic voters. polls have consistently shown that republicans are more enthusiastic about this race than republicans. that's a big reason why you saw barack obama here campaigning with mcauliffe yesterday, and george, today you will see the dave matthews band performing a concert at a mcauliffe event here in charlottesville. >> bringing that. how's the pandemic playing out in this race? >> reporter: well, mcauliffe has made it a big issue, you know, youngkin is opposed to vaccine mandates. mcauliffe has used that to portray him as being anti-vaccine.

youngkin says that is not the case, but interestingly in a recent poll, the most recent poll here in virginia, the pandemic came in third among issues far outpacing the pandemic was concerns about the economy and jobs and education in schools. >> jon karl, thanks very much. let's talk about this now on our round table joined by chris christie, donna brazile, and sara isgur. how do you read this one? >> look. i think virginia is very close. i think the rga is spending a lot of money. they make decisions based on what they think they can win or lose. when you see them spending a lot of money in virginia, i think that gives you an indication they think it's winnable. new jersey is down to a single digit race. the latest poll i've seen has it at six points. >> not as close as virginia. >> not as close as virginia, but a trend, george.

two weeks ago, it was at 15, and now it's at 6. so it's trending. whether there will be enough time for that to happen in new jersey, we'll see, but there are national head winds created by joe biden, and other democrats causing problems, and you hear mcauliffe himself, he's blaming biden and that's what you are seeing here. >> donna, these races often are tough for the party that won the presidential race the year before. >> right. and terry as you all know has bucked that trend before, and i think he'll buck it again. we saw his turnout in virginia both in 2017, 2018, of course, for the midterms, 2019, but trump was president. i think what terry is doing in the closing days of his campaign is he's increasing the level of enthusiasm. he's really focused like a laser on jobs, but he's also doing something that i think is important, and that is he's saying to national democrats,

congressional democrats, let's wrap it up so that we can get back to creating jobs and doing what the american people want us to do. >> he wants the accomplishment there. you saw glenn youngkin make the point in the debate about how many times terry mcauliffe will talk about donald trump. how is he walking that tight rope? >> we've seen republicans have to walk this before. look at 2020 susan collins' race in maine. that was a race where the democrat tried very hard to tie susan collins to donald trump, failed to do so. susan collins won re-election. youngkin needs trump supporters to come vote for him, and he also needs those northern virginia d.c. suburbs that are most interested in the school issue for instance that have been turned up to pretty hard blue democratic areas to scoot back just a little for him to win this race, and that's the tightrope, is the lower part of the state getting, you know, not alienating them by pushing trump too far away, but in no way

tying himself to trump for the top part of the state with what we've seen as really the school board parents. they're the new soccer moms in a lot of ways that could really change this election. >> school board parents and mcauliffe got in hot water by talking about parents shouldn't be dictating the curriculum for their students. >> i'm getting ed gillespie vibes. i'm thinking back to previous gubernatorial elections in virginia, where it was going to be monuments and the new thing the, you know, the trouble that starts with a capital "t," and that starts for critical race theory. we're in this moment where i looked back at some of the polling numbers and the polling numbers, it's actually been remarkably steady. the lead for mcauliffe on august 31st was about 2.8%, and on october 19th, it was 2.9%, and i think it's a pretty steady rac and one of the challenges we're having is we're going to want to use this as a bellwether for the nation. not every state is like virginia where you have a northern virginia area that is incredibly diverse, and it'll look

different politically, but i think there's a sense here where we see republicans that are just going to keep trying something. >> but if ed gillaspie -- he lost his race. >> right. >> if the state which had been trending blue actually goes republican, that is a signal, isn't it? >> i mean, i think it's a signal of what this means for virginia and especially how to win a race in virginia, but as we've seen time and time again, what wins in virginia or what wins in texas or what wins in california might not necessarily work outside of those areas. i think the nationalization of politics does not mean that state politics doesn't still matter. >> here's where it's national though. where it's national is joe biden's numbers are bad, and there's no denying that, and i don't care -- >> he's been on a pretty steady slide. >> a steady slide down, and he's creating head winds for these candidate. if new jersey is a six-point race right now, there's no way new jersey should be a six-point race. there's --

>> that isn't that close. >> 1.1 million more democrats than republicans. joe biden won a year ago in new jersey by 17 points. so come on. like, my point to you is that it's telling you something. what it's telling you is not what new jersey is going to do, and how they're going to be governed. it's telling you what even new jersey thinks of joe biden. even in new jersey, joe biden is now upside down. >> let me just say this. joe biden is going to new jersey. so welcome. >> thank you. please. >> by the way, chris, he's gone back to virginia, and while he may not be as popular as he was on august 1st, he's more popular than donald trump who was as popular as a root canal. >> i know, donna. you love to talk about donald trump. joe biden is the president, but you know what the elephant is in the room in virginia and new jersey? it's donald trump because he's

not only dialing in. he is calling in the shots for the republicans. that's why we have all these cultural wars. >> you're thinking about the energy question. we are seeing a lot of democrats. this isn't, like, democrats being the supporters of the joe biden. this is, like, democrats saying, i don't have the think about politics right now. you're seeing for a lot of people who have been incredibly plugged in for the last four years, they are disconnected. republicans are more connected because they're in opposition. republicans like being in opposition. >> he wins by 2.9 points, let's say. this will be seen as a rebuke of the progressives who have not figured out that they do not speak for the vast majority of americans and most americans when they hear him speak, they think, oh my. that's not even the language i'm talking about. a data guru had incredible stuff and interviews in data he had this week just showing again and again why democrats are losing this when they shouldn't be. so even if mcauliffe wins, still

seen as really bad for that left wing shift. >> donna, that has gotten a lot of attention this week, and it seems to be driving the forces on capitol hill towards it. you have had the most optimism among democrats for having a deal than you have had all year. >> the plane is about to land. go ahead and buckle your seat belt. make sure that you put your tray table away because the democrats are really focused on getting this job creating future ready proposal across the finish line. it may have taken a long time, and we didn't like what the sausage looked like in the making, but it's going be appetizing for a country that wants to be competitive in the future. let me just say this. i love when republicans talk about democrats. i live with a lot of them. especially progressives. what progressives are arguing for, they're arguing for climate change. that's a reality we have to face. they're arguing for access to

health care. that's a reality we must face. i don't find anything that the progressives are arguing for in this big massive bill which i've reduced to this, this is not bad for america. >> as long as it doesn't kill the deal. >> of course. of course, and that's why i think the president today is going to be on the phone. he's going to try to get those last two or three moderates over the finish line, and by the way, the vice president this week was making sure that we get the progressives. so we have a healthy democratic party, and a healthy democratic process. >> if they can get this done, is it enough to bring biden back? >> no, it's not, george, because when people start to figure out the specifics of this, despite donna's color-coded form over there, they're going to see red. this is not what the majority of the american people want. they're going to be angry. they're going to see red. it's not what the majority of the ame want. it'snot, and so i don't

think it matters now, and by the way, now they're moving too, and we have to see where they're moving next because "the new york times" are on their way in here, and you say, even if biden gets $2 trillion, that's a failure of compromise, and what he needs to do now is kill the filibuster to prove to progressives he's really serious. i love this conversation. keep it going. >> take the question i just gave to chris. >> i mean, i think that for one thing it's interesting because the american people voted for joe biden, and joe biden talked a lot about infrastructure during the campaign, swing and that what this deal means, it's interesting because voters are complicated. that's what we always forget. voters will vote for increasing the mandatory minimum wage and also to support donald trump because voters are people and people are complicated. i think one of the most important things here will be that what does this bill actually end up being? what does this actually mean? i think we saw this numerous

times with people getting stmulus checks last year. we've seen this when government does a thing, and the thing results in something for the american people -- t ge >> -- we need to stop thinking about sausage and politics and horse race. >> the biden administration with those checks, and i think what the biggest thing people are looking at right now, things are costing more when they go to the grocery store or anywhere for that matter, and they blame joe biden for it. >> and that's going to be the question. if this bill ends up improving the economy next year, it could change. >> it'll increase inflation. you can't spend $2 trillion and have no effect. >> $5 trillion. you want to talk red? we'll talk red and the last administration. we saw red coming into this administration. $5 trillion to deal with this pandemic. things are costing more because we know the disruption that the pandemic has cost. >> we'll take a break, and you guys will come back later. dr. anthony fauci is up next. trelegy for copd.

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we're we're seeing a lot of confusion about vaccines. you have the additional dose, and you have the booster shots. there is some confusion with our patients, between the immunocompromised and the booster shot. you talk about additional vaccines. >> confusion over boosters, and let's talk about that with dr. anthony fauci. thank you for joining us again. there has been a lot of news about boosters this week. fair amount of confusion. all three are now approved, and the cdc has signed off on mixing and matching vaccines. explain who can get them now, and your best guidance on which booster people should get. >> well, first of all, it's a level playing field now, george, because all three of the products that are available to the american public, the mrnas from moderna and from pfizer as well as the j&j, and first we

had the pfizer approval which means that people 65 years of age or older and those who have underlying conditions that put them at a higher risk, and 18 up to 64 of people who either live in or work in a circumstance that put them at higher risk. it's the same criteria for pfizer. the j&j authorization means that anybody 18 years of age or older who received their primary shot within the past two months can get it. so it really shouldn't be confusion. all three products, the mix and match means that under the situation if you were originally vaccinated with one product, could you and would it be appropriate and safe and effective to get boosted in the third shot for the mrna and the second shot for j&j by another product, and the answer is it's perfectly fine. we would hope that people, if

available, would get the boost from the original product, but if not, there's the flexibility of what we're calling mixing and matching. in other words, getting something other than the time of the first shot. >> can i press you on that? i've read some studies that suggest it's better to mix. say you got the johnson & johnson the first time around, it's better to get the moderna the second time. >> if you look at the level of antibodies that are induced, in fact, you do, if you originally had j&j and you get for example, a moderna or a pfizer, the level of antibodies, namely the proteins that you would predict would protect you, those levels go up higher with the moderna boost to j&j than the j&j boost. however, it's a little bit more complicated because in the clinical trial that j&j did, the clinical effect of the second dose of j&j was quite substantial. so it really becomes an issue of

what's the most convenient. what do you feel is best for you. if you have any question about it, you consult your physician. i think the good news about this, george, is that allows a considerable degree of flexibility for people to get what we hope they will get, namely a booster that will increase and optimize their protection. >> let's talk about kids. pfizer reported on friday vaccines are safe and effective for the younger children ages 5 to 11. the fda is meeting next week. should we expect kids to start getting vaccinated in november? >> i would think, george. you never want to get ahead of the fda in their regulatory decisions nor do you want to get ahead of the cdc and their advisers on what the recommended would be, but if you look at the data that's been made public and announced by the company, the data looked good as to the efficacy and the safety. the fda and their advisory committee will be meeting next week on october the 26th, and

then their regulatory decision will be handed over to the cdc likely november 2nd or 3rd. so if all goes well, and we get the regulatory approval, and the recommendations from the cdc, it's entirely possible, if not, very likely that vaccines will be available for children from 5 to 11 within the first week or two of november. >> the u.s. is funding risky covered research in wuhan, and that was kicked up when they released a letter about that research that showed that the sub contractor had not disclosed some results in a timely manner. some have seized on that to say you misled the public. the nih says that false. our medical unit backs that up, but senator rand paul steps up that criticism in the interview with axios on hbo. let's play that. >> absolutely. the thing is, is just for lack of judgment if nothing else. you know, he's probably never going to admit he lied.

he's going to continue to dissemble and stretch the truth. >> i'll give you a chance to respond to senator paul, but also, what about the funding? >> i totally disagree with senator paul. he's totally incorrect. neither i nor the doctor from the nih lied. the frame work from which we have conduct about the research that we fund, the funding at the wuhan institute was to be able to determine what is out there in the environment in bat viruses in china, and the research was very strictly under what we call a framework of oversight of the type of research, and under those conditions which we have explained very, very clearly, does not constitute research of gain of function of concern. there are people who interpret

it that way, but when you look at the framework under which the guidance is, that is not the case. so i have to respectfully disagree with senator paul. he is not correct that we lied or misled the congress. it's just not correct, george. i'm sorry. >> it showed that what was being researched was very far from the covid -- the sars-covid virus. >> yeah. >> what did relearn from the letter? does it show that some of the research we were finding is riskier than we know? >> no, it isn't. we knew what the risk was, and what the oversight is. certainly, they should have put their progress report in in a timely manner. no denial of that, and there will be administrative consequences of that, but one of the things that gets mixed up in this, george, and it needs to be made clear to the american public. there is all this concern about

what's not. with the implication that research led to sars-cov2, and covid-19. which george unequivocally anything that knows anything about biology and viruses knows it is molecularly impossible for those viruses that were worked on to turn into sars-cov2 because they were distant enough molecularly that no matter what you did to them, they could never, ever become sars-cov2, but yet when they talk about that, they make that implication which i think is unconscionable to do, to say maybe that research led to sars-cov2, and you can ask any person of good faith who is a virologist, and things are getting conflated that should not be conflated. >> thanks as always for your time and information. >> thank you.

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for your worst cold and flu symptoms, on sunday night and every night. nyquil severe. the nighttime, sniffling, sneezing, coughing, aching, stuffy head, best sleep with a cold, medicine. you hear people say, biden wans to start a new cold war with china. i don't want a cold war with china. i want china to understand we are not going to step back and we are not going to change our views. >> you are saying the united states would come to taiwan's defense? >> yes. we have a commitment to do that. >> there's president biden on thursday. biden defends taiwan as tensions mount between the united states and china. we have steve ganyard, and the director of the asia program. bonnie, let me begin with you. president biden's team including the defense secretary walked back that comment saying the united states policy is not explicitly saying we would defend taiwan, and the strategic ambiguity that has not changed. something similar was said to me in our august interview.

is there more going on here than meets the eye? >> well, i think that president biden personally feels quite strongly about avoiding a chinese attack on taiwan, and it is quite interesting that he keeps saying that he would come to taiwan's defense. that said, u.s. policy is to sell taiwan weapons to defend itself, but the united states will not say in advance whether or not it would come to taiwan's defense. >> you don't think that's changed? >> no. i have talked to people in the administration who say that u.s. policy has not changed. they want neither side of the strait to make changes in the status quo. they want peaceful resolution of disputes, but the fact that the president comes out and personally says that he would defend taiwan is an important

signal to beijing, and perhaps might strengthen deterrence. it might make jinping think twice about whether he would use force against taiwan. >> they say this is an antiquated policy and we need something that china should know the consequences if it tries to take over taiwan. does he have a point? >> george, getting away from straight strategic ambiguity means that the u.s. has to commit to the defense of taiwan now. the whole idea behind strategic ambiguity is to make the chinese think two or three times, will it get to a nuclear exchange? will they trade? how do you keep the chinese from attacking? when might that happen? most conventional military estimates say that's three to five years out. the chinese noted what the russians did with the annexation of crimea. put these men, people without

uniforms and do cyberhacking and critical infrastructure. it was crimea, and that is very appealing. we may see that rather than a conventional attack. >> i was struck by you saying when, not whether. you say it's inevitable? >> xi jinping has publicly said he has a solemn commitment to what he says the reunification of the taiwan and the mainland china. this is not a question of if. it's a question of when. this is why the u.s. needs to think now of what their response would be. it may be one year. it may be three years. it may be five years, but it will happen. >> i want to get to you weighing in on that. do you agree? >> i very much want to weigh in on that because i disagree. i think that it is a question of whether. in fact, we had chairman of the joint chiefs general milley in testimony in congress earlier this year saying we have to focus not just on capabilities, but also on intent. everything that xi jinping

really has said about the taiwan and the inevitability of reunification has been said by prior chinese leaders. what has really changed is that china increasingly, and they already have, the capabilities to actually seize and control taiwan, but in terms of intent, i think xi jinping has a lot on his plate. in the next year, it's congress where he will get unprecedented full five-year term in office and he will have to slow down he wants to avoid independence of taiwan but reunification is not willing to take the risk of reunification that can fail, and what could threaten leadership of the chinese communist party. >> this is also contentious u.s. relationship with china. in the confirmation hearings,

nick warned the chinese president, quote, the greatest threat to security in our country in the democratic world. the president said he doesn't want a cold war. are we in one? >> i think we are, george. it's a different cold war than we had with the russians. it was primarily a military war. the russians used proxies. we don't see that out of china, at least not yet. with china, it's much more of a economic competition, and the other problem here is that the u.s. and china's economies are inextricably intwined and china remains the second largest economy in the world. it's a fairly hot cold war, and we're coming to that realization, but it's different in a lot of ways. >> is this virtual summit that the president and president xi going to have in december, is this an opportunity to lessen those tensions? is that what you expect? >> yes, i do. the chinese have been reluctant in the first ten months of the biden administration to engage

other than phone calls. they have resisted holding their high level meeting, but now they are interested and the tension on both sides is to put a floor under this relationship. as i said, xi jinping is in the run-up to taking over -- getting his next five-year term. he wants stability, and he just said in a speech about two weeks ago that china needs a stable domestic international environment in order to achieve its national rejuvenation. that goal is supposed to be achieved by 2049. so i think in this particular period, xi jinping does want to have stability, and i think that the two governments are going to put in place what some officials in the biden administration call guardrails, risk reduction measures, maybe some confidence building measures. the two militaries need to reengage. they have not been really

engaging at high levels in this administration yet, but i think we'll see that following the virtual summit. >> bonnie glaser and steve ganyard, thanks very much. up next, the round table, and nate silver analyzes donald trump's chances if he runs again. kim is now demonstrating her congestion. save it slimeball. i've upgraded to mucinex. we still have 12 hours to australia. mucinex lasts 12 hours, so i'm good. now move! kim, no! mucinex lasts 3x longer for 12 hours. (vo) this is more than glass and steel...

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as a striking new poll says more than three-quarters of republicans want that to happen. here's nate silver on trump's chances. >> betting records keep president trump about a 40% chance of being the nominee, and frankly i think that's a bit low. when it comes to polling show that republican voters love the 45th president. the quinnipiac poll for example found that 78% of gop voters want trump to run for president again. in the morning consult poll earlier this month, donald trump would get 47% in the vote in a hypothetical republican primary while pence would get 13%, and ron desantis at 12%. at the same time, there aren't a lot of examples of a party nominating a losing candidate again four years later. the last time a party immediately renominated a candidate after losing an election was with stephenson in

1956. his second time wasn't better than his first, and he lost again to dwight d. eisenhower, and the last time someone gve cleveland in 1892, but he did win on a nonconsecutive term. the primary is complicated at 66%, and voters believe trumps have baseless claims about election fraud. nonetheless, presidential primaries are wild affairs and we should be careful about declaring anybody for inevitable. hillary clinton was a shoo-in, and she lost to barack obama. she also won against the largely unknown bernie sanders eight years later. >> where does that leave us? we believe in probabilities here at fivethirtyeight, and i don't think he is inevitable. >> nate silver, thanks very much. let's talk about this on our round table. sarah isgur, i'm pretty sure you're one of the 22% that doesn't want donald trump to run again, but do you think he will, and how do you explain the 78%? >> at this point, i think you

have to think he is planning to run again. something would have to change for that to not be the case. i think that it is -- you look at the ohio senate race for instance. you have three candidates sort of at the top of that pack all vying to bear the mantle of trump now running $1 million worth of ads about the other candidates all about how he's not loyal to donald trump. you have donald trump launching a social media company which will be an interesting -- interesting to see if that succeeds, and if the republicans, that 78% -- >> quadrupling the stock price. >> certainly on that, and so i think this is -- this is the decision for the republican party. is it going to be the republican party or is it going to be the donald trump party? donald trump based on his previous statement said if he don't fix the 2020 election fraud, you shouldn't vote in '22. you shouldn't vote in '24. >> you talked about the poll numbers. it does show -- right now at

least, donald trump is running much better against joe biden than he did the last time around. >> well, look. donald trump is still hugely unpopular with independents and of course democrats. while he's very popular with republicans, chris, i have another chart here, and here's the problem, chris. i don't see your name among those who might be running in 2024. my god. at least i knew you would win. >> that's right. >> donald trump is right now controlling the republican party. he's controlling the nominees and all of these house and senate races, and he is also bringing in the money for the republican party. this is a dilemma that the republicans must resolve, but here's what we as americans must resolve. do we really want someone as divisive and as uncompromising and revengeful as donald trump to return to the white house? that's the decision the american people must make. >> look. i said this to sarah when we

were off air. today it's just barely nine months since donald trump left office. just barely nine months. i am so weary of our instant gratification society and stuff we just saw from nate. it's nine months afterwards. we expect the whole world to have changed inside the republican party. he was the nominee in '16, and he was the president for four i don't expect things are going to change, especially when republicans are resistant to what joe biden is trying to do now. it's a vacuum. he's the only name. no one has declared themselves for president. no one is yet seen as the president by people in the republican party. we haven't hit midterms now, and quite frankly no offense to our show, this is wasted air because it doesn't matter. it doesn't matter right now, and this is the inevitable answer you get. >> it could matter, and i'll bring this to jane. if donald trump stays out there, it could actually kill the field, freeze the field, prevent others from getting in.

>> i think that that's true. i think that you will see, especially because you're right. like, donald trump will attack literally all of the people who are currently vying for his favor. ron desantis can get on bended knee for donald trump, and donald trump will call him something vaguely obscene. i agree with chris. i feel like we're doing what hey do in, like, collegs where you announce the a.p. poll before the season starts and it's january and the season starts in september and you're, like, who are these people? what's going on? it is so early to be thinking about this. especially when you are hearing from people within kind of the upper echelons of conservatives that were talking about, what would trump's message be? currently his message is, until you make me president before you shouldn't vote. >> it's not too early for donald trump to be thinking about it. >> before you freeze the field, anybody who thinks they're good enough to be president, who is going to be frozen out by donald

president. b sarah. t does he survive the first contact with an actual opponent taking him on? there's going to be a lot of events we saw another development. steve bannon held in contempt by the congress. we'll have the january 6th committees. >> that helps him? that makes donald trump the fighter, and hero and all these people taking him down. >> steve bannon? steve bannon, like, the goldman sachs thought that jeffrey epstein was a spy? i just -- i'm, like, for steve bannon? really? >> here's the problem. here's why this is relevant, and why you guys are wrong. the democratic party has this great opportunity to take 22% of republican voters or some number like that and bring them over to at least become independents to vote for them, and instead what they've spent the last nine months doing is the exact

opposite, alienating them, pushing them back to donald trump. it's a political calculation by the democrats. >> i'll put this to donna, and then you can answer it. how does focusing on january 6th hurt the democrats? >> it doesn't hurt the democrats because we are focused on preserving and strengthening and protecting our democracy, and that's what the january 6th commission, study group, select committee is doing. i want to go back to donald trump. his political argument -- >> of course, you do. of course, you do. i want to go back to jimmy carter. how about that? >> go ahead, and wish him a happy belated birthday, but here's the point. donald trump has the criminal indictments here in new york city. just this past week in west chester county, another one of his golf courses is under some kind of legal -- but still he has to fight these back.

>> that is going to be the last word. i'm sorry. we are out of time. we'll be right b last word. i'm sorry. we are out of time. we'll be right back.

i think it's more turning people into -- >> that is all for us today. thanks for sharing part of your sunday with us. check out "world news tonight," and i'll see you tomorrow on "gma." sunday with us. check out "world news tonight," and i'll see you tomorrow on "gma."

liz: up next, heavy rain in parts of the north bay all morning long with flooding reported. lisa: and a live look outside. this is mount tam. it has been raining solidly since midnight, with with the past 24 hours. it is flooding. we will talk about all the details, coming up next on the abc7 morning news at 9:00.

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