tv First Business KICU January 2, 2013 4:00am-4:30am PST
the opening bell launches a new year of trading. what to expect from the markets in 2013. in today's cover story, turmoil in major u.s. shipping ports has retailers questioning how to stock the shelves. how the affordable care act will give a push to new trends in healthcare. and, new technology that can bring you and your electronics closer than ever. first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's wednesday, january 2nd. i'm angela miles. in our first look for 2013:
today kicks off a fresh trading year. in a quick rundown of best the stocks to own in 2012, bank of america was the top gainer in the dow, up more than 100%. ironically, it was the biggest loser in 2011. pulte group, a home-builder stock, surged 195%. apple also makes the cut despite struggling at the end of the year. the stock was up roughly 27%. traders are already setting up for the jobs numbers due out this friday. it's expected 135,000 jobs were added and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 7.7%. there is the sound of the opening bell on our show for a new trading year. gary kozlowski of united futures trading joins us, and happy new year to you gary.
> > happy new year to you. > what do you anticipate the january effect will look like this year? > > we had so many people sitting on the sideline at the end of december this past year. what we are looking at, everybody is antsing, they want to get themselves into this market as soon as possible. they want to see what they can get involved in to try and recoup some of the losses, 'cause a lot of people did get hurt at the end of last year with all that was going on. > what is going on with the wintry weather and natural gas? > > well in last week's report we saw that there was a draw of 52 billion cubic feet on the natty gas. ok, we are seeing the february contract slowly getting up there. it is getting closer to that $3.50 range, and with the cold weather coming in - and it's been consistently cold now; we have been in the 20s and 30s here in chicago anyways - and we are seeing that there's more use, more use, more draw now. so, we should probably be seeing $3.70-, $3.75-range, probably by week's end. and with
some of the other storms that are predicted, we could be getting close to that $4 range in the very near future. > how are you positioning for the friday jobs number gary? > > it's going to be a real toss-up on that one. how many people were let go for seasonal jobs? is that going to be actually factored in on the numbers? also, i am not seeing a lot of new hires. there is talk of it, but we have to look at what thursday's jobless claim report is and first see how that plays out, and then we can make a better judgment on it. right now they are looking for a gain of possibly 50,000 to 75,000 jobs. that is really not going to change the percentage numbers at all. > and gary, quickly before you take off, i know you are a big currency guy and you're watching the yen right now. what do you see there? > > since the new regime came in just a few weeks back, the first thing they said they were going to do is devalue the yen. we saw the yen at 81. now we're seeing the yen in the 86 range. we are going to look for it to be heading to that 90 yen-per- dollar range in the very near future. don't be surprised if it breaks into that and
probably gets into the 92, possibly by the middle of next week. let's see how that plays out. but definitely short the yen. that is where the money is. > thanks gar. have a good one. > > you do the same. the recent labor dispute between shippers and longshoremen along the east and gulf coasts underscored how quickly shelves of goods can empty. our cover story takes a look at some innovations that are bringing to market more of what consumers want. even when the supply chain isn't threatened, retailers worry about inventory. one retatively new company helping retailers of products for infants and toddlers is plushlittlebaby.com, an online clearinghouse started by jina park, who's also a mom. "we test these products out. we have 'mommy testers.'" products that pass the "mommy test" are included in catalogs. park also founded a trade show in june for retailers and parents. "it's an educational experience for parents who want to be in- the-know about what products are coming out." it's tough being a kids company. the recession hit hard. "the retail industry went down and others shut down, so we want to help rebuild
independents in the retail market." what may help retailers even more than a hand-picked trade show - a company called nu- order. it's adapted software to ipads that can show page after page of apparel, for example. in turn, it can shorten the order and delivery from wholesalers to retail shelves. "since using nu-order, sales have gone up 18%, so you can see it's produced direct benefits." after a year-and-a-half, nuorder has convinced 40,000 retailers to use its digitized order processing. "they're instantly able to place an order and restock their store in under a week." 2012 was a good year for nu- order. it raised $3 million from backers and helped sell more than 750,000 items of
clothing. meanwhile, barge traffic along the mississippi river faces a threat. shipping industry trade groups say a section of the river may have to close due to record low levels caused by the summer drought. last week the army corp of engineers released water from a lake in southern illinois, enabling shippers to continue moving billions of dollars in commodities. wal-mart is keeping a closer eye on its supply chain. following complaints of poor working conditions, the retailer plans to monitor warehouses in illinois, new jersey and california. the warehouses work with wal-mart merchandise, however are not directly staffed by the company.
protestors argue retailers like wal-mart should ensure warehouses comply with u.s. labor laws. wal-mart says it plans to audit u.s. warehouses like it does in its factories abroad. the retailer has been under heightened scruntiny following a fire in a bangladeshi factory that killed 112 workers in november. the banks are back. 2012 was the most profitable year for the u.s. banking industry since 2006. in the 3rd quarter alone of last year, financial firms earned $37.6 billion in comparison to the $32 billion lost in that same quarter in 2008. other signs of strength from the banking sector: bank lending edged up 3.2% during 2012; also in 2009, 140 banks collapsed. the number dwindled down to 51 last year. improvements in job growth and the economy are giving banks the boost. but there is more to that story - bad behavior cost banks big
money in 2012. banks paid $10.7 billion in fines last year - the highest number on record. illegal mortage activity accounted for nearly half of those fines. most of the money ended up with the u.s. treasury. the rest was given to homeowners who were victims of illegal mortgage activity. libor manipulation cost hsbc and barclays nearly $2 billion in fines, while money laundering hit hsbc and standard charter with a combined total of $3 billion in fines. financial planners consider the first week of the new year the best time to set goals for saving for retirement. among the more popular resolutions: create a budget that allocates at least 10% of your income to investing or savings - that way you will spend less and save more; and put money into your company's 401k - it only takes a few minutes, but its estimated more than half of working americans have no retirement plan and fail to take advantage of 401k savings. other advice from marketwatch.com:
dont worry about short-term market moves, including large sell-offs. the market tends to bounce back... eventually. scams targeting the nation's veterans are on the rise. aarp says an increasing number of fraudsters are posing as "veterans advocates." scams advertise free-lunch seminars that are actually sales pitches. other scams target veterans' health benefits as a way to get vets to hand over some assets. aarp advises veterans to be wary of so-called 'veterans advocate' organizations that are not accredited by the u.s. department of veterans affairs. movie stars are heading to wall street. liberty media plans to spin off the starz and encore channels into a new publicly traded company. according to a report, starz and encore generated $1.34 billion in revenue last year. analysts are concerned about what the future holds for starz. it will lose
disney movies to netflix starting in 2017. some champagne fans are turning to prosecco for a cheaper cheers. many champagne fans opted for the sparkling italian wine this holiday season. the drink is similar to champagne, with a less expensive price tag. in europe, where economic crisis drags on, champagne sales are fizzling out. however, sales of prosecco doubled this year at european grocery chain tesco. still to come, technology is becoming more human. find out how - later on. but first, will the healthcare reform act make boutique medicine more common? bill moller explains, next.
we all know that healthcare in america is changing. one thing that the patient protection and affordable care act - obamacare - on thing that it has done is to create a new form of care, one that the wall street journal calls "the end of empathy," but businessweek calls, in fact, "the future of healthcare." "concierge care," is one way it's described. roberta greenspan is founder of specialdocs consultants, a healthcare consulting firm. why don't you just define that term for us, first of all? what is concierge care? > > "concierge care" is a much more personalized approach to medical care where the physician goes back to practicing the kind of medicine
he always wanted to and has an interpersonal relationship with the patient that allows him to be accessible on a personal level 24/7. > what are the barriers now that prevent the marcus welby kind of model for healthcare from being delivered from the doctor to the patient? > > the barriers today are multiple: i think one of the primary barriers today is that the physician who has increasing overhead and decreasing reimbursements is finding it very difficult to maintain a viable practice. period. > so all the paperwork they have to do and the bureaucracy, the regulation that seems to get in the way. how has this expanded? is this now available across the country? and it's through primary care physicians - they join groups to provide this kind of care. > > actually it is mainly primary-care physicians. there are now sub-specialists such as endocrinologists and
pulmonologists, some cardiologists perhaps, who have gone into more personalized care - we like the term "personalized care" rather than "concierge." but they are private practicing physicians. when we talk about groups and medical centers, that's a whole different arena. these are basically physicians who want to maintain their autonomy, they want to stay in private practice, and they opt for the personalized care model. > and this is good for the bottom line, it is greater efficiency, and it is good for the patients and the doctors as well. sounds like it's not just a good thing - your view is that this is a very good thing for healthcare in america. > > i do believe that or i wouldn't be in this business. > how broadly has it been adopted, would you say? > > across the country at this point my sense is that we have - really it's a very small percentage, probably 3-4000 physicians across the country. > but it's the coming thing without a doubt. > > it has absolutely grown by
nearby for a suggested fee. lyft is hiring now, with plans to expand in l.a. and seattle coming soon. computers and smartphones will soon have the capacity for touching, smelling and feeling. ibm is the brains behind a new line of extremely smart tech products due out during the next 5 years. dr. bernie meyerson, vp of innovation for ibm, recently joined us for an update. > > basically, we are going to change fundamentally how you interact with them. if you think about it, for years we programmed computers. imagine really converting a computer to the point where it can learn from you. so instead of programming it, you teach it. to do that, we are looking at some real innovations in the way you get data into a computer through senses like a human, as opposed to just simply typing in a bunch of instructions. > what kind of senses are you talking about here? > > the classic human senses: sight, smell, hearing, taste,
and touch. basically enabling all of them so that essentially you can say to the computer, "i like this," and it understands what you mean by "this" through all of those senses that it can, to some extent, share with you. > that's incredible. how is it possible to create a computer that has a sense of smell? > > think about this: if you have a little chip, on the surface of the chip, basically with each transistor you can have a chemical that is only sensitive to one particular chemical molecule out there. but if you have billions of transistors on the chip, which they do today, you could literally sense the chemical fingerprint of billions of different things that come along with the odor that you're smelling. and you can say, "look, i like that smell," and after it hears to say that about many different things, it can figure out what attributes in the smell chemically you liked, and what you didn't. and it can actually perhaps even design a custom perfume.
> what about smart phones? how smart will phones become? > > they will become the conduit. they literally- it is unlikely you're going to want to put all that computing horsepower there. but because you have this tremendous connectivity today with 4g and all these new networks, basically you could put the sensors in the phone. so as an example, if you had a sense of "smell," that actually could detect, for instance, disease, like a strep bacterium. if you are sitting there talking and you sneeze, the phone says, "wait a minute, i detected this bacterium." it could even give you a little red flag saying, "hey, go to the doctor." and the computing horsepower that drives that decision will probably sit behind a wall somewhere at the end of the network. but your phone nonetheless will be sort of the portal, the web portal to all of that information. > how soon before that product gets on the market? that's a good one. > > that is a good one. medical stuff i believe you will probably start to see within the next three to five years. i would not be at all surprised. > nice. that is dr. bernie meyerson of ibm innovations. good to have you on the show. take care. > > thank you. still ahead on first business, how one trader hopes to make money on canadian currency. chart talk is next.
we are taking a look at a currency play today in chart talk. alan knuckman of optionshop joins us now. good morning alan. > > good morning. > your play is in the canadian dollar, also known as the loonie. but you say that there is an oil connection. could you explain that please? > > they're the number one exporter of oil to the united states, so their economy is very much based on energy. so their currency has kind of been suffering lately as the energy sector has been down. but we are seeing a resurgence here, and we just made two-month highs in crude-oil here recently above $91.50, so i think that could add some support, and you've got a very solid base at $99, which is the halfway of the highs and lows for 2012 in the canadian currency. > here is the chart and a look at the canadian dollar. what do you see in the charts that you
like? > > i am looking at a june option, a limited-risk play. a june option has five months. you can buy an option here for a relatively inexpensive $1,500, because there is such a low volatility - this market hasn't moved much. and it has five months to develop here. the near-term target is $106. what is interesting is there is usually a high correlation between the canadian dollar and the australian dollar, which has made new yearly highs, but we've seen this canadian lag behind. look for that to play a little bit of catch-up and participate in this upward rally as the dollar turns lower and crude oil goes higher. > is it possible for somebody to get a positive outcome or a good return on this even if they do not do an options play? > > there is not a whole lot of risk if it holds that support at $99. that is the overall play. but what i am looking at here is there's a high probability that it is going to participate in the rally that we are seeing in crude on the upside. if you look at things technically, the next upside is $96 a barrel in crude, and then $100. so i think some of the worst is behind us as far as these low energy prices. and we've seen this resurgence even
though we have had these fiscal issues hanging over us, so that is a very positive sign for economic growth worldwide. > alan knuckman. always a pleasure to have you on the show. have a good trading day. > > you too. plenty of u.s. dollars are expected at the box office as the film "the impossible" goes nationwide this weekend. it's based on the true story of a family caught by the devastating tsunami in 1994. some critics say it's a tough film to watch but will likely become a box office hit. find out more on movies and money tomorrow. from all of us at first business, thank you for watching, and have a great day.