tv Nightly Business Report PBS November 2, 2018 5:00pm-5:31pm PDT
>> announcer: this is night business report withil griffeth and sue herer deal?al or no mixed messages from the white house upon a trade agreement with china kping investors guessing and send stocks all over the place. >> america gets a raises. wage growth accelerates at the fastest pace in nearly a decade. now it's t fed's turn. shipping and handling no one said logistics is sexy but sits lucrative for one shipper who has a bright idea. those stories and me on friday, november 2nd. we do bid you gooevening, erybody and welcome. when the white house speaks on trade, the market listens. that's what happened today.
however mixed signals from the president and h top economic adviser caused the dow to zigd g all day. stocks sharplyig higher ove on a bloomberg report that said president trump asked officials to prepare a draft for u china trade deal. but at midday a white housevi ser threw cold water on at. >> there is no massive movement to deal with trade. we are doing a normal routine run through of things we have putogher. and normal preparations. okay there is no mass movement, no huge thing. we are not onhe cusp of a deal. >> and stocks fell sharply on that comment only to reverse course a short time later when the president said the two countries are getting closer. we've had good discussions with china, getting closer to doing sometmung. they ver want to make a deal. i think we'll make a deal with
china and i tnk it will be a fair deal for everybody. but it will be a god deal for the united states. >> and that lifted stocks off the lows. when it' all said and downet down done t dow down 107 points had been down 300 points at the elows. nasdaq fell by 77. the s&p 500 slipped by 17. in addition to the cfusing mments, wall street had to teal with a sharp decline in apple shares. an a strong jobs report that showed accelerating wageh. gro adding up to a head spinning day. and bob pisani witnessed it all fromhe new york stock exchangern >> an early g rally quickly faded onned from. the dow ob nasdaq and s&p snapping three-day win streaks. investors focused on three key drivers, trade wars, jobs report and apple. first the markets got a lift from high hopes on trade between president trump and xi jinping were going well. and there were reports of a possible deal being drawn up.
but all that action fizzled out afte several officials including top economic adviser rry kudlow said there was no imminent deal. but then the markets lifted latt in day when the president himself said they getting closer to a deal. which is we don't know. addo tha a strong jobs report showing wages grew at the fastest pennsylvania pate are pace in nine years. up 39 1% year over year. and worried by a federal reserve the fed might be boxed in and forced to raise rates in december on perhaps more than two or three times next year. tech led losses in a big way. thanks to apple. apple tumed% after the earnings boat. but iphone shipments missed the mark appear the company says it's no longer breaking out sales for iphones, ipads ob mac books. marking a major change a as they transition from a hardware player to services business.
that really led to a decline in tech i call it. not only apple by microsoft, apple, amaze and. google keep in mind these megacap stocks make up the half of the nasdaq so 0fare nightly business report, bob pisani. >> as bob just mentioned it's payday in america. not oy did the jobs market heat up last month but wage growth accelerat y afterrs dd stagnant paychecks. the the economy 250,000 jobs, easily exceeding the expectations. the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, a 49-year low. wages were the big sto. year over year they rose 3.1%. the biggestnnual gain for average hourly earnings since 2009. and the labor force participation rate rose to 62.9%. and october marked the 97th consecutive monthf job growth.
extending an already record breaking streak. well let's turn to anthony chan for more analysis on this strong jobsor r chief economist at chase. good to see you anthony. >> good to see you, bill. >> is this what a goldilocks economy lisks like? hat what we describe here. >> it's encouraging because we aretarting to see wages ticking up, that's what we wanted to do for some time. i know there is concern whether there is inflation. t when you look at the data what i find is that there is a relationship between the changes in the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. as you lower the unemployment rate wag. pick up a little b but the relationship is much, much weaker looking at chang the unemployment rate and the overy'all inflation rate and that's what matters to the federal reserve. >> what does it mean to the federal reserve? does it box them io another rate hike in december or do you think the econo is kmuging along fine with only moderate
inflation. er everything the f reserve has been do getting the job done. raising interest rates eight times and any will raise rates once per quarter. there is nothing in the report that says they should defeat from the path. i think that in december they willaise rates one more time and continue well into 2019. >> along those lines, larryow kuaid today he feels this is a growth economy with low inflation. and ed lazire today he used to chair george w. bush's council of economic advisers. sort of did the math along those lines on whether or not there is inflation in this economy. take a listen. the fed has this notion of a target rate of about 2%. whether you o like thatnot that's the target rate. if you said, well 2% added to the 2.5% productivity growth we would be then saying could afford 4.5% wage growth and still not be putting upward pressure on prices beyond that
which the fed would allow. >>t' and t the ammo some would use to say that the fed shouldn't be so aggressive in raising res in the future. what do you think? >> well, i think the fed hasn't been aggreive at all. and in fact you did see in the latest quarter. productivity growth o in exce 2%. but unwith unwith of the things you notice youaw the busines investment in the third quarter went down. i don't see any reason we see productivity growth in excess of 2% into 2019. if we continue to get two and three% productivity growth i'd be the first person on lienl to say there is no concern what so far. but i don't see pinductivity that strong especially if we see business investment lowing down and economic growth slowing down. when those things happen historically you see productivity sloowng and that's what the federal biserve is trying to protect against, the posty of inflation. last point on that, remember
that what the federal reserve today influences or impacts the economy about 18 months into the future. what they do today is trying to protect us from sometn the future. >> very good. anthony chan with good to see you thanks for joining us. >> my pleasure. well,mphe octoberyment report is the last major economic report before the midterm elections. and the economy may play an unusual role when entering the voting both next week. ylan mu i >> america job market on fire. 250,000 jobs created last month. the unemployment rate at 3.7%. dhe lowest level in near 50 years. hat has voters in maryland feeing pretty happy with the economy. >> i think the economy is good right now and certainly moving in the right track. >> every major sector of the economy added jobsast month. manufacturing up 32,000 jobs. transportation gained 25,000jo . and leisure and hospitality
increased by 42,000 jobs. but will the numbers help republicans in t midterm election sns a recently poll by nbc and the "wall street ha journal" found voters believe the gop is better at managing the economy than democrat the preside touted the job support on his way to a rally in west virginia tnd tweett the numbers are incredible. keep it going, vote republican. >> iouave a republican sweep i think you may get much more stimulus. if younmave divided govt for a norm since the y 1940s get more blocking ever the president's agenda, maybe less stim us into2020. i think a lot more sugar if we get republican victory on tuesday. >> but if you think the numbers are a slam dunk for republicans, ink again. the president's pty typically loses seats in the mid-terms. and one new analysishe shows losses are actually bigger as the unemployment rate falls. many political pundits predict that democrats will control the
house and economists heidi scherr holst pointed out the jobless r for a while. lling >> by the time president obama left office it wa 4.8%. it has continued declining since then now 3.7%. that's fantastic for workers. and the key thi to remember, however, is that no sitting president gets to take credit for just not mesng up an existing positive trend. >> at a polling station in silver spring maryland, voters we talked to were rn. >> i feel like they are both equally responsible because economic trends play out over a really long time lines. and so it's sort of a combined party effort if you ask me. >> i don't think it's either or. just -- i think it's working together to make things wk out for the community. and the hpeople. >> wust a few days left to go before the election, both he parties claim hold the key to a strong economy.
for nightly business'm report, ylan mui in washington. >> now to apple and that sharp decline in the stock that we ntioned earlier today. a number of analysts expressed concern over the company's new reporting structure that will no longer break out sales figures by-product category. jeffrey said that decision is fueling fears that the company has something to hide.rm says it fuels fierce. and bank of america mailer lmg says it expects negative revisions that sent t stock down 6.5% making it the worst performing stock in the dow. >>woheest performing stocks were exxon and chevron. thosees compalew past earnings estimates and thanks to higher oil prices both delivered the strongest third quarter results in four years. investors were pleased sending the stock higher in trading today. but the rising oil provides that is helped deliver atrong quarter are leaving behind a lot
of questions. jackie deangelis has more. >> reporter: profits surge in t americ biggest oil company exxon and chevron were able to ride the wave of higher oil a pric better refining. the oil and natural gas outputback surpassed expectations for the first time in 10uaers. and is a sharp increase in output from the red hot permean basin. that strong them crank out cash. the strongest since 2014. oil prices in the mid-70s in october because of supply and demand. they were stabilizing. many thought the premium was warranted since the iron yans were likely to export less sanction time set to go into effect in two tais. but recently there's been a change in tone. oil prices have fallen dramatically about 15% the past month. the new thinking is that ironor yan e may not fall as fast as expected. market hat stock
uncertainty and the potential for slowing demand and oil is now in the low 60s. that could set off a cha reaction within with the industry. lower oil prices mean companies like exon and chevron produce less, reversing the surge in production we sawn the most recent quarter that led to stronger than expected results. because drilling can't continue if it becomes less profitable.s and go oil prices so may future quarters forexen and chrch for nightly business report, jackie deangelis. time to look now at some of the upgrades and downgrades. we begin with shares of ups tonight downgraded toeutral pr from buy at citi. the analyst sites the potential for new tariffs in january which could hurt the volumes in the first lf of nextear rich price target now $115. the lowest on wall stre by the way. that stock fell 1% to 105.99. kraft heinz downgraded to negative from neutral at the analyst citing less confidence
is management pan downare downward earning rns are likely. the price target $47. the stock fell 9% to $50.73. and miebl kors was upgraded to boy at ubs the company cited the strong brands. provides target $80. the stock rose 5%o 58.29. still ahead, help wanted. the construction industry isg. boomin but where are all of the builders? t >> construction industry added 30,000 jobs last month. biggest one of th drivers of that strong
employment report. but even with the latest gains, the industry is still facing thousandstages with of positions left unfilled. kateer r is in baltimore for us toght. >> reporter: the construction industry isbooming, adding some 330,000 jobs this year alone. but experts say there are still nearly half a million open jobs waiting to be filled. these big numbers mean bigs opportunitie for baltimore'sge eu jouers after completing a local program called project jump start training and placing baltimore residents in construction jobs, jouers works in a job he enjoys that pays well. >> it gives you jobs, skills and aining that you can start getting paid at a higherso leve. y pay is i get paid a good enough amount to where i can provide for my famy and still have a little pocket change, you know rb to run around. >> the industry isem attpting to
find more employees like jouers letting workers with and without college degrees know that jobs are available and careers can be promising. >> you come into our industry -h beautiful thing is we will teach you the trade that you wa. to lea and we will pay you while you do that. and when you graduate from that competency base or time based apprenticeship program you'll make a great living. >> but a skill worker shortage is hitting home for larry epz, his company green job works in baltimore needs 20 skilled worker, a challenge for any employer in a increasing tight labor market. lopez is trying to attract tal went benefits like paid time off and health insurance. his workers are employees not contractors. >> how can you d for a customer if you do not you know e people rship to that work for you? it's critical if we want to be successful in the industry. >> e in thisloyees market jouers is two years in with an eye tofu hisre.
>> since i've been in construction i think i want to be a superintendent. i like running the sites. >> building a future in an industry looking for w nkers. fohtly business report, kate rogers in baltimore. >> alibaba blames n uncertain economy dpor the weak outlook. that's where we begin the marke focus ton. the chinese ecommerce company cut the full-ier revenue forecast alibaba says the trade war and slowing economy could hit sales of consumer durable goods. but that other services will be fected not quite as much. so shares of alibaba fell about 2% to 147.59. newer bronzed topped profit expectations and raised the full-yearoutlook. maker of sharpies and grew said itble to offset tariffs by returning production of some goods bac.s to the it negotiated exemptions and prices.raised shares rose more than 14% to $1.99. very sign has entered intme an agr with the department
of commerce that allows that company to increase wholesale prices for.com domain names. that pricing power sent the stock to an 18-year high. shares popped by to 165.02 today. and wal-mart h filed a lawsuits against synchrony financial late lt night alleging breech of contract. they were the wal-mart exclusive credit card issuer the last 20 years until the retailer replaced them with capital one over the per. in the new lawsuit wal-mart amging that synchrony's underwriting standards caused wlrm financial harm and it's seeking shh 800 million in damages. synchrony calls the complaint baseless. synchrony shares fell more than 9% today to 26 o 43. hairs of wal-mart rose a fraction to 101.34. and now to thet mar monitor who likes dividend paying stocks that he said should benefit from consumer spending. the last time he was o in april
he recommended three etfs. the s&p aerospace. etf up 2%. the spider s&p market etf down 10%. and the i shares north america tech software etf which is 7% higher. joining us is mark lutine he is at janny montgomery scott welcome back. >> thanks sue. it >> let's start the first, carnival as in the cruise line. a nice yield. >> it does. it has above a three handle yield which i think is still appealing. even as we seehis bump in interest rates recent but particularly compared to the s&p 500 at less than 2%. it's benefitting from flows of traffic, the baby boomers and millennials that are flush with cash or seeing wages increasing likeou you talked in most of the segment here today and looking for experiences and you know chances to get a the hustle and busle and carnival is i think a good name with a healt. divide and i think in a good position to take advantage of that.
>> tapvidentiary, the o i haven of dividend play but 3% yield and up and downier on the stock market which do u like it. >> it's a discretionary stock and that's been buffetted by a bunch o issues over the course of the year. but the fact of the matter it's aspirational purchase brand in the form of coach. they build out the portfolio of offerings. again because the consumer continues to win by way of eing wage gains, they have confidence in jobs. feel good about what the future looks like through confidence surveys leads me to believe that consumption is going to remain a positive impulse for the u.s. stand tond the benefit from the thesis. >> i would assume if that is correct thatur next pick wal-mart would do the same. >> yes, besides the prospective nd fall from the lawsuit.
i think they are a retail giant, general merchandiser competing effectively by the way against amazon by way of the ecommerce initiative, big and fast greg. therefore i think is well positioned to address the consumer nee from those fluent to less affluent alike. >> on that note, mark, thank you so much. and as always,eo read m about markeace picks you can head to our website whi is nbr.com. copping up one entrepreneur as bright ideaet that to fulfillment for his customers and for himself. toyota is recalling more than 1 million vehicles on concerns that the airags may inflate without a crash or fail to work if there is anccident.
in the u.s. that recall applies to aboutar 17,000 scion xa models for the years 2004 throug additional models have been recalled in japan and europe. do you ever wonder where all that stuff that you boy online is kept or thousand gets shipped? a lot of companies get helped bu ouing with an ecommerce boom driving growth. third party logistics is worth $2almost billion in the u.s. alone. and that is why one entrepreneur from new yk city got the bright idea to help other companies make sure their products get from here to there. >> rafael began selling high-end surplus watches and jewelry working his way through college in 2009. he discounte prices and sold online through amazon, ebay and others out of an apartment in
consequence. >> the living room was a warehouse and the bedroom was a warehouse. >> as he fntled the apart with 10,000 items, he began to notice price differences between the amazon and ebays telling friends and family rning similar business that is they often paid too much. >> i saw thahey are really missing an opportunity to selling elsewhere where thee margins wer better. isne of them wanted to handle the logtics or space was too expensive. >> a burgeoning ecommee boom mean thousands of small businesses needed help with storage, packaging, labeling and shipping. >> i started calling up friends and it was like hey instead of sending it to amazon. i'll send half to amazon we will keep half and take back and ship it as the orders come in. >> starting in 2011 his company ruby has fulfillment outgrew the apartment and office space and warehouse. by 2014 it was handling a couple thousand orders a day. and rube y took the conveyor
systems and shelving to a warehouse on long island. on average the company says customers save 45% on freight and if you thinkubie's warehouse looks like an amazon fulfillment center, well that's no accident. >> we had to do everything right. and we had to do it the way amazon would do a it just much smaller scale. we have clients today that have distribution centers ten times our size wre that distribution center can't handle the direct to consumer needs. >> in fact rube y handles some orders from amazon. but one thing ruby offers that amazon doesn't is the ability to use a customers branded packaging. >> there is a lot of companies that can sayhey can do the branding but not in scale. soonsz you start doing a thousand orders a day what we see is they bak down on scale. >> i don't want i to be like a third party brand. >> chris start the his-ed end sneaker brand in a brooklyn apartment tree years ago.
now he stas stores in new york, chicago and los angeles. but 60% of its happens happens online when he signed on with rube y this yearhey realized the inventory lacked the bar codes needed for automed processing. >> they discovered the problem and without sending them back or ignoring the problem they would print bar codes themselves and label them and get tm int the system so that nothing is lost. >> now with almost 200 clients and revenue of morehan $17 million a year, rube y has added warehouses in las vegas and new jersey. with plans to expand further in 2009. aiming to keep delivery times down to the two to three days consumers expect and businesses depend on. you can deploy the dollars in products, marketing, staffing, right. things that actually help them grow the business. getting a new forklift isn't ing to add the top line or the
bottom line. >>nd rube y has now has more than 200 employees and to expand not only here at home but internationally possibly into cada and europe in the near future. >> one more look at the day on wall street. kind of a mixed day. 1e dow down points. was down 300. nasdaq fell 77. the s&p was down 17. and that will will do iton r usht on nightly business report. i'm sue herera thanksor f watching. >> i'm bill griffeth. have a great weekend, everybody. we'll see you monday.