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tv   First Business  FOX  December 19, 2012 4:00am-4:30am PST

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no matter what comes out of washington.. why traders are convinced.. there will be no falling off a fiscal cliff. in today's cover story.. why retailers and wall street firms are stepping away from gunmakers. plus- who has more power millenniels or baby boomers.. the surprising answer.. and what will interest rates look like in 2013? first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas good morning. it's wednesday december 19th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look what is the market telling us? stocks rallied once again what traders view as a sign a deal to avert the so called fiscal cliff.. is highly likely. money pulled out of gold -- which is considered a safe haven.. and instead went into equities.. as well as oil. shares of oracle bounced almost
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3% in heavy volume. the tech company surpassed wall street's expectations. oracle is up 28% this year. gas prices are closing in on a 2 year low. the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular is $3.23. it's time now for trader talk with larry shover of sfg alternatives. hi larry. good morning. what's going on with this market? are they rallying into the news of a possible deal on the fiscal cliff or we see an even bigger relief rally when the deal is done? i think yes and yes. i think the market is expecting a deal to get done and we're just making up for lost time. let's keep in mind that back in september we were willing to pay 14 times multiple for the stock market. that would put the s &p at 1500 so it's really been stagnant and we're just rallying making up for lost ground. what have been the best performing commodities
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this year and where would you still put some money to work? i think gold actually---even though we had a $28 dollar fall down yesterday. gold had a $150 range up to 1800 dollars. i think gold right now is in a corrective phase probably a good place to start putting your money. everyone should have a piece of it in their portfolio. oil has been inching higher. is this going to ruin the day for holiday shoppers who are now paying less money for gas and all of a sudden we're going to see an increase at the pump? i think yesterday's snapback rally in oil was really just a corrective bounce and let's keep in mind that across north america it's been warmer than usual and so with that there has been more supply of oil and gas keeping the price lower. so to answer your question, i think we'll be okay through the holiday season. what are you doing with your money right now? right now i like boeing, i like occidental and i like halliburton. stocks that haven't caught up with the rally and
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will probably rally through the year's end. livin large---thank you very much that's larry shover of sfg alternatives. have a good day larry. thank you. one place money isn't going-- long-term investment in guns. as our cover story explains---investors--are distancing themselves from weapons well as some retailers. pittsburgh-based dick's sporting goods is suspending sales of some rifles in it's nationwide chain of more than 500 stores in 44 states. no word how long the suspension will last. meanwhile, cerberus capital management, a new york based private equity firm says it will sell its investment in freedom group, a considation of one of the largest firearms manufacturers in the world--- including the manufacturer of the assault rifle used in the connecticut school shootings. the hedge fund's decision comes shortly after one of its largest clients, the pension fund for california's teachers said it's reviewing its half- billion dollar commitment to cerberus... which also invests for california's public
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employees. "these pension funds hold more power than we think." john challenger says california's teachers are not alone in demanding more transparency. "certainly its an increasing trend." the selling of freedom group also coincides with renewed debate in washington to restore the federal assault weapons ban that expired in 2004. "we must engage in a thoughful debate about how to change laws and culture that will allow violence not to continue to grow." "as we continue to learn the facts, we'll examine what would be an appropriate and constitutional response that would better protect our citizens." challenger noted stock prices of several firearms manufacturers are dropping. "if they look at their projections, those companies may not make as much as their thought they'd make as of a year ago."
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but not all retailers have chosen to suspend sales. outdoor products retailer, cabela's still advertised on its website, the rifle used in the shootings alongside high- capacity magazines, but noted that the weapon was not available in connecticut. and walmart continued advertising on its website another a rifle made by the same manufacturer as the weapon used in connecticut---capable of firing 300-rounds a minute. short term, sales of firearms have been spiking since the presidential election. some say in anticipation of tighter gun restrictions even before the shootings in connecticut. the thought of this next report-- will probably make you cringe. the better business bureau feels its necessary to warning people to be aware of potential scam artists in the days following the connecticut school shootings. every time there is a natural disaster or tragedy scammers will come out of the woodwork. it happens each and every time, the better business bureau wants to be more proactive at this point. we advice consumers to give but give wisely. /// the most important thing to do
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is check out the charity and make sure it's not just a scammer who set up a website trying to take your information or steal you identity. steal your identity that was steve bernas of the better business bureau. here are the questions the bbb recommends that you consider before donating to any charity. is this a charity i can trust? how will the charity use my donation? is my donation a tax deduction? and, am i feeling pressured to give? also watch for the statement "all proceeds will go to charity"-- that sometimes signals only the money left after expenses will to the charity. in cliff notes this morning... president obama and house speaker john boehner are mulling over thier next moves. the president recently offered to raise his threshold on taxing the wealthy from $250,000 to $400,000. he's also showing signs of supporting a new way to measure inflation when calculating annual cost of living increases in social security benefits. house republican were quick to say it's not enough. both republicans and democrats agree: failing to avert the so- called fiscal cliff-- which
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includes tax hikes and spending cuts january first--- could push the nation into recession. the treasury is winding down the tarp program. starting in january the u.s. treasury department will begin selling its stakes in almost all of the remaining banks that received bailouts during the financial crisis. four years after the implementation of the troubled asset relief program the government still owns a part of 218 banks. those banks owe taxpayers nearly $8 billion. the government says tarp was always intended to be a temporary measure. key players from wall street may be heading to the whitehouse. according to bloomberg news.. the obama administration is said to be considering kenneth chenault -- the ceo of american express-- for a cabinet post... possibly treasury secretary. also, the adminstration is said to be batting around the name ursala burns- who runs xerox as a possible candidate for
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commerce secretary. president obama said earlier he is interested in having top business leaders in his cabinet. coal consumption is climbing around the world. the international energy agency-- better known as as the i-e-a predicts demand for coal could come close to outpacing oil in the next few years. global demand for coal is expected to bump up by 2.6% per year through 2017. strong demand is expected in china and india in the next 5 years. while the surge in coal exported from the u.s. to europe-- should peak soon. toyota confirms it will have to pay a record $17.35 million fine. it's being levied against the car giant because it delayed recalling nearly 150,000 lexus rx models due to unintended acceleration problems. the impact on toyota's image may be blunted given that it's in a race with arch rival honda to see which company will be hit with more safety recalls in 2012.
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morgan stanley will pay $5million penalty over facebook's ipo. regulators in massachusetts are fining the brokerage firm for allegedly disclosing facebook's revenue shortfall to analysts -- but not the general public. according to reports.. morgan stanley alerted analysts a week before facebook ipo-ed on the nasdaq. one of the latest deals on wall street has the media in focus. nielsen which already is said to have a monopoly on gathering tv ratings... is moving into the radio market. nielsen is buying arbitron for $1.26 billion dollars. the deal still needs approval by regulators. meanwhile.. neilson is also tie-ing into twitter to measure social media chatter about tv programs. . if mcdonald's has its way there'll be more than just chinese take out available on christmas day. hoping for higher december sales in its stocking mcdonald's is taking the unusual step of urging restaurant owners to open on christmas day. the request is surprising and
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attributed to the pressure on mcdonalds to increase same store sales. those sales were down in october for the first time in nine years but rebounded in november. as restaurants stayed open on thanksgiving day following a corporate suggestion. bing becomes the official "santa tracker" for the u.s. military. norad, charged with keeping an eye on the nation's air space, chose bing over google maps for its offical "track santa" program. bing has a big job. santa travels more than 175 million land miles on christmas eve. at last count more than 1.4 million people had dowloaded norad's "track santa" app. don't go anywhere-- just ahead on the show... is now the time to buy a car or home now .. or next year.? predictions on interest rates after the break...
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then later in the show-- why the bulls are jumping on harleys. first business continues-- right after this..
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is now more money coming in than going out at u.s. banks. $2 trillion more. bloomberg news reports that deposits at the nation's banks went up by 8.7% this year to a record $9.17 trillion according to federal reserve data. the industry is lending only 78 cents for every $1 it has in
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deposits. 2012 goes down in the books as the year of record setting ultra low mortgage rates. greg mcbride of bank joins us via skype this morning for his outlook on interest rates in 2013. good morning to you greg. good morning angie. let's start with mortgage rates. what can homebuyers expect in 2013? i think its going to be another great year. rates are going to stay very low. they may trend up a little bit if the economic recovery continues but by and large i think 2013 is going to be another year where mortgage rates stay at very attractive levels. will it be the same story for auto loans? it will. 2013 is going to be a great year for auto loans. we could actually see rates move a little lower and reset the record lows. and the sub 3% rates that we currently see on the low end, i think they'll persist as well. what about credit cards? will lenders be pumping up rates there or keeping them low? i don't see much movement in rates but that environment is very conducive to switching to a card that has a better rate than the one you
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currently have, particularly if your credit has improved. that's the one thing we're going to continue to see next year are great single digit rates for people with good credit and much higher rates for people that have impaired credit. how are credit card companies doing? do you see a lot of strength there? the delinquency picture id improving and as the economy continues to recover and those delinquencies continue to improve, that's also going to breathe some life into the bottom line for credit card issuers. and last but certainly not least for our investors--- what will be happening with rates on savings and cds? i don't see rates getting much worse but i certainly don't see thm getting better. the exception to that are the top paying particularly savings accounts and money market deposit accounts, particularly if those banks start to see a runoff in deposits. they will have to up their rates to go out and replace those deposits. but it's gonna be the exception rather than the rule so you're gonna have to shop around. what percentages do you predict?
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much like what we saw this year where the top paying savings rates went from 0.8 percent to a little over 1 percent. i think you could see something similar next year, that 105 to maybe 1.2 percent band on the top paying savings account rates, not the average account, but just the top end. good to have you on the show, that's greg mcbride of still ahead--- bill mollers tells us why millennials are more powerful than the baby boomer generation.
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they are larger in number than the baby boom generation. millenials, those people born between 1980 and about 1995. they're rapidly moving into positions of influence. what drives them? what do they want? marketers, demographers, companies sure are paying attention to this group. edelman, that's the world's largest public relations has taken to measure the millenials most of whom now are in their late 20s. this is alex abraham who runs the group that did the research. you did research on this group a couple of years
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ago. what did you learn since 2010? quite a few shifts have happened in the last 2 years. this is a generation that has been hammered by the economy first of all. it's really changed how they are as consumers. i think we're seeing that their influence over the purchase decisions of other generations is shifting and becoming quite profound. in what way is that influence growing? i think that the relationship that millenial kids have with their boomer parents is different than generations before them. its much more of an exchange, much more of a friendship so we're seeing this cross influence between boomer parents and millenial kids in particular. as consumers in the marketplace, where is their influence? first of all, they're talking to brands. they want two way dialogue with brands in pretty amazing ways. they expect brands to talk to them in social media, they expect brands to show different types of value today. they're looking for authenticity from brands i think above all else and i think marketers need to meet that
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demand. give me an example of a company that's doing that correctly. toms shoes is a great example of a company that's resonating with millenials in a powerful way. that's the company that says if you buy a pair we'll give away a pair to a needy child. exactly. a very simple premise but it's based on an authentic message that they like and its obviously a quality product but the fact that they have this larger purpose and they're helping society, they're really finding interesting. the go-to example is always apple and you would agree there too that they get it right. absolutely, apple does a lot of things right. the fact that they can create powerful conversations and have products that drive conversation is great but if you even think about their in-store experience that they create, they realize that while they're a tech company, they need that offline experience and engagement with millenials as well. and millenials want offline and online engagement from brands. briefly alex, do companies then target just millenials? because they're going to be the largest influencer of purchase power in just a few years. absolutely. i think more and more companies are understanding that this is the it generation in terms of
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size and influence. i would also argue that all brands and marketers should not focus just on one generation. there is such a cross influence taking place now. everybody's influencing everybody so taking a broad snapshot i think is important as well. alex abraham, the specialist on millenials from edelam, thank you so much. thank you very much. coming up... a trader who is revving up to talk about harley. the wheel deal on that stocks is right around the corner in chart talk.
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scott bauer of trading advantage joins us now for chart talk on harley davidson. good morning to you. good morning angie. is this a stock that investors should be hog wild over? it's had quite the run over the last year. it's up about 40% from its low of 36 to where we are currently trading in the 49 range. which also happens to be really toward a top end resistance area. but i will tell you, the technicals really look very, very strong. we're seeing lots of call buying to the upside. and the 200 day moving
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average---which had broke a few weeks ago---which was right around 45 the stock has not even looked back. it's really continued upwards from there. so it looks as if we can break through this 49-49 1/2 area. next stop is probably its all time high at around the 52-53 level. what strike is that call buying happening the most predominantely? we're looking at the 50s actually and a lot of it in december as well with only a couple days left to go until expiration. is this still seen as an economic play of sorts? it seems that over the last year this was an area where people that had discretionary income flocked back into this stock. i would agree with what you just said and quite frankly with consumer confidence on the rise and much of the economic news that we're seeing also being pretty good. if you look at it as an economic play, that
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probably supports the bullish trend. if you were to buy this stock would it be a long term hold for you? or a trader kind of a stock? i would probably look at it as a long term hold meaning 6-9 months. maybe 12 months. certainly not something that i would necessarily buy to have in my portfolio for years and years. but with the trend right now that trend really is to the upside. thanks a lot. that's scott bauer of trading advantage. that's a wrap for today. coming up tomorrow in movies and money .. this year's american films that are blockbusters in china-- but box office busts in the u.s. from all us at first business... thank you for watching.
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we are following breaking news and these are live pictures as firefighters discover a body while responding to a fire in the south bay. we are live in oakland where investigators are looking for someone who started a huge fire early this morning. that sent a security guard to the hospital. we'll have the latest on the investigation. baby, it's cold out there. we have freeze warnings, frost advisories. plus the questions this morning about that phone call that prompted a big scare at the san jose city college campus. it's all ahead. good morning. thank you for joinin


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