>> hello and welcome. the shape of the u.s. race is finally clear. hillary clinton and donald trump look set to be their party's nominees. the battle is joined and it't's already curtaining nasty. the com battedive trump has promised a radical change in american politics and that sounds good to many people in america. clinton, on the other hand, has promised continuity but that's not the kind of campaign platform that gets a lot of voters excited. this presidential camplee could be one of the most brutal in modern american history. that's our topic today on

"quadriga" and we're going to talk about it with three people who watch u.s. politics very closey. it's a pleasure to welcome crist jana maya, a correspondent be with the morning show and former by reported for a.i.d. from washington. she says we look at -- with shock and no awe at a u.s. campaign at a man who be -- would be fired from any school for his hateful, racist remarks writes our next guest about politics. she says one of the biggest challenges for hillary clinton see that her s to conventional qualities as a candidate matter more than donald trump's populism. and erik kirschbaum now works

as a correspondent for the "los angeles times" in berlin. he says there is a lot of frustration with the government n europe and it the moon i fests itself in support for right-wing candidates like pen. but it's hard to imagine americans electing anyone by clinton. can we really be sure it's going to be clinton against trump when it comes to the general election? or i iit possiblble there could be more surpriseses in store at the parties' conventions in july? >> after all the surprises, it looks like trump and clinton. clinton got enough delegates with the wins in california the other day.. it would take a miracle to prevent trump from being the nominee so it looks like trump and clinton in november. >> even though trump is

alienating the republican party bosses and elights, the people he had tried to curry favor with recently, like speaker paul ryan, who now says trump's remark is racist but he will vovote for him. >> it is remarkable that trump is uniting, needs to be uniting his party around him but he seems to be cuzzing more division. went a bit too far, calling a judge a mexican and it raises a lot of ghosts thee republicans don't need right now. it was a total own goal for trump and not going to do him any good. >> hillary clinton could -- would be the first woman president of the u.s., she's the first female nominee for president. she was celebrating that very openly this week. but not all that many americans are perhaps are -- not as many as one might expect are celebrating with her and

supporting her. why is that? >> good question. it's probably because she is roareded as the person who stands for establishment and that seems to be a bad thing in america, obviously because so many people seem to be unhappy with the established politics. it falls back on her. she has been in power for a long time and has the experience trump doesn't have and that doesn't seem to be to her advantage, which is kind of interesting to watch. on the other hand, many women obviously and many immigrants are really behind her and think she's got a very good chance to actually succeed even though she comes across add maybe a little bit -- maybe not as warm as people would like her to be. but then again you don't go drinking beer and coffee with a candidate, right? >> it surprised me last time i was in new york how unenthusiastic people are about hirg -- hillary clinton.

there is no real buzz for hillary right now. >> but do you think that would would -- could change now that the general election phase is starting? and can she also win over the young people who supported bernie sanders? >> i think that's absolutely crucial. obviously they're trying to match sanders in behind her. if he would more or less give up and say all right, i'm going to support her and if he can get? of his issues across, for example, education is very important for young people and doesn't come across as the old, grumpy old man not able to give up, if all that happens, i think there could be more enthusiasm for hirg -- hillary clinton because it's been divided between obviously the young people and older people. i'm not optimistic, actually. >> you mentioned people in america who feel that the american dream is dead in that opening statement that i quoted. of course, those are the people to whom both sanders and trump

have been appealing. trump, of course, is seen by many of those as an outsider with a fresh, authentic point of view and as a self-made man but in fact he's neither. >> no, he's not but he's very smart and appealing to people i think that have a lot of frustration and anger, frusustrated with the politicia in washington, d.c. he appeals to people that are older, male, white, that had the american dream in their mind that they can have one job in their lifetime, buy a house, buy a car, support the children through college and then that's it but that life if america is over. there is no longer the american dream they wish for and donald trump just stands there and says w well, if you vote e for i'm bringing back the american dream, bricking back the 1980's, which is not going to happen but he's smart in appealing to that demographic which i think may not be there in future elections, so this is

his shot and he's doing well. >> in germany, france, elsewhere, disenfranchised people are going for the eatsy answers to very complicated political quesestions and i thi it's obviously very easy to fofollow a person who comes across like that. >> when you don't realize what the world is really all about -- >> he also says you're afraid and if y you vote for me, all your fears are going to go away. i think the american society has bececome a very afraid society. afraid of terror, different people, their next-door neighbor, african-americans. there's a lot of fear in the society i believe. i talk to a lot of people there and they're all afraid of so manyny things. he stands there and says i'm not afraid of anything or anyone and if you vote for me i'm going to be the strong person in the white house. >> but here's something very puzzling. many are disillusioned with the politicians in washington. they say they are lying, promisising things and don't deliver. the fact is trump has promised

lots of things he dididn't dedeliver. started a school for real estate provokers where there has been clear fraud and that has beenen reported upon, canne yet nothing seems to stick. hits supporters stick with him despite the fact that he has been shown to be telling lies. how can that be? >> yeah, i'm surprise bid that as well, but i think it has been reported but i don't know if the people have heard him, necessssarily, are reading the big piece in "the new york times" or "l.a. times" about what he has done wrong. then there are out lets like fox news that are just giving hihim air time and air time and that's part of the problem is the media that's -- that's been not very good on reporting on what he has promised and did not do. whwhat i think w we have to see is a very much more critical civil land scay. a civil society like america

cannot vote for trump if they want too uphold the established ekenny wallace for minute orkts for gay people. all the issues are so important and so much on the line and we need to stand up and address that more and make people hear that. >> one thing's for sure, the media has been keen to report some of the more outrageous statements that have been made by donald trump. let's take a look. >> 4ir8 clinton has to go to -- hillary clinton has to go to jail. all right? she has to go to jail. >> i will leave it be to the psychiatrists to explain his affection for tyrants. >> hillary clinton is a weak person. totally scripted. >> he is tempt -- temper aamerican leaguely unfit to hold an office that requires knowledge, stability and immense responsibility. >> instead of saying crooked hillary, a very accurate description, wonder if i could say lyin '.

>> we all know the tools donald trump brings to the table. bragging. mocking, composing nasty tweets the >> she does not look presidential, that i can tell you. she doesn't. this is not a president. >> i believe the person the republicans have nominated for president cannot do the job. >> so, hillary clinton there talked about the tools that donald trump groings the table. he has made it clear that among those tools will be vicious, vicious attacks. he is not afraid to hit employee the belt. he has done it plenty in the past. he has indicated he's perfectly happen i for example, to make bill clinton's past affairs grist for his mill. won't hillary clinton be thold a different standard in can she really fight with the same kind of weapons? or will she be in a disadvantage in this kind of, what could become really a mud wrestling match?

>> if it stays nasty like this, she will havave a problem but she's already shown she's going to take on trump where he's most weak. e gavavey -- a gave a speech about foreign policy that week that went t down really well. don't forget, donald trump has a lot of people on his side. there say much higher turnout and we see m many of these peop who never voted before are voting. maybe it was betteter when turnout was lower. but trump has pulled it off. but it could hurt him in the general election because he'e's got it win these middle of the road voters and he's behind in so many states that it looks now like an easy win for the democrats unless trump gains 10 percentage points acrososs the board. >> clinton, as erik just pointed out. did make quite a strong speech last week. clearly she had been doing some

thinking, training and also undoubtedly had a lot of consultants at her side telling her or working with her on how to address the kind of polemics trump has been throwing her way. she's a very tough politician. do you think that will stand her in good stead? will she stand up and put up with or even trounce these attacks? >> i'm sure she will. she can keep her calm. whereas he goes out of his way to be nasty and horrible, she is just composed. she doesn't use bad language like he does. there is one personality on the one side which you really think is very easy to attack, and on the other side there is his inexperience in political matters so she has a lot of things to go for. what -- when you are talking about the middle of the road voter, the middle people, they don't like that when their

children hear nasty language on television. i'm totally surprised how the americans can put up with that. if you were used to that language in your normal circumstances, your normal life, you would not go to a normal school. people would certainly expel you and the parents would be called. >> it's kind of old with trump. it was entertaining for a while, exciting and ditch but it's going to get old and i think trump is going to have a hard time with this crazy, profane, vulgar message. >> on the other hand, trump has had a very decided advantage in media coverage. every nasty tweet that he sends out gets picked up by the mainstream media and then retweeted and discussed and in fact the president of cbs went so far as to say trump is bad for the country but it's very, very good for cbs. they've had revenues like never before thanks to all the

interest in donald trump. what do media themselves need to be doing going forward to in fact create a level playing field here? ore -- or won't there be one? >> i think it's difficult because within the -- on the one haund want to report on everything that is going on. that is your job as a journalist. but i think what the huffington post did, beneath every article on donald trump they say donald trump has been making racist remarks and has been unpolite. hey state very clearly where their editorial opinion is. i think you have to be more rational in covering this election. it's a very nasty race and going to be a lotot morore nast until november. i think it's going to be very interesting to see the first national debate where hillary and trump will be up on the one stage for the first time debating the issues. donald trump cannot be as vulgar as he has been so i think that is going to be very

interesting. >> you don't think he'll talk.side -- size of hillary clinton's hands? >> we hope he doesn't but you can never be sure about him. he can pull off anything, apparently. bubut sometimes it might help t just take a ststep backk before you retweet and facebook something just for the attention ond - -- and the audience reach. >> but isn't america itself, brought that onto itself? having elections as a big show that is run on the media as a show event almost with all that money involved and everybody has to go out of their way to attract attention? so in a way, you have got a person who delivers the big show, you know? there he is. and honestly, they're cynical enough to say ok, the race is great. let's go for it. >> that's one side perhaps of how the u.s. brought this on is -- itself. another side might be polarization, both in the sense

of in washington, that meant that in eight years all thehe parties did in congress was fight with each other, then polarization of the media, meaning even if there is critical reporting, a lot of those trump supporters maybe aren't going see it. >> the milll enyals get their information from different platforms, facebook and twitter and things like that. it's a total different race this time and there is this polarization this time. i think sanders would have a very difficult time if he were to become. , he would have a very hostile congress but hillary clinton can work with a congress dominated by the republicans and at least get something accomplished. it's a crazy election. but the democrats have won every election except 2004 all the way back to 1988. the republicans only won one. so the electoral college advantage the democrats have is pretty enormous. it's something that people who are worried about trump should think about.

it's not like one big election, like in germany it's 50 individual elections. the democrats have a pretty good heat start at this point. >> i totally agree but it's easy to say the democrats are going to make it. i think it's so dangerous that donald trump came that close or might cocome that close to the white house and we don't know what happens until november. if there is one major tag in europe or even america, don't want to think about that but just imagine one big terrorist attack. i think that would give him a major advantage. >> let's briefly think about what a donald trump in the white house might mean in terms of foreign policy. of course hillary clinton's presumptive advantage is that she had advantage -- experience as secretary of state but donald trump did hold what he called a major foreign policy address recently and more or less outlined where he would go, although it left many people somewhat in doubt. let's take a closer look. >> north korean leader kim

jungun, shunned by the international community because of his nuclear development program but donald trump says he'd be prepared to talk to kim north korea recently praised trump as a wise plifplgts trump also says he'd like to have good relations with moscow and beijing. >> we desire to live peacefully and in friendship with russia and china. we have serious differences with these two nations and must regard them with open buys but we are not bound to be adversaries. the statement. >> he praises dictators and picks fights with our friend. >> perhaps trump can use these now male bonding efforts to resolve longstanding international disputes. >> so is he a hawk? >> i don't know if he knows. obviously he has no experience.

what he said is that in nato have a speaking role, the other countries to would to pay more. it's hard to tell if anything is thought through or not or if it is coming from -- it's a worrying thought that he should be the onene who actually holds the button the >> yes, as hillary clinton has said, he would have the codes, the nuclear codes. according to trump in that major foreign policy address i mentioned he has written a book "the artd of the deal" and he says we should be -- we need to take a mar transactional approach to things. is that a clear strategy that you think would bring gains vis-a-vis say china or russia? >> no. it's a dangerous strategy. it might work for a businessman but as a nation, it's scary.

he's already upset the financial markets by talking about renegotiating u.s. treasuries and things like that. it's been the most reliable place to put money for centuries. he threatened to mess that up with jut a few unconsidered words. he doesn't have an idea and it's a scary prosspektd for a lot of america's allies. >> let's talk about the u.s. and europe going forward. both candidates have actually said that they would perhaps expect more from europe at least in regard to contributions to nato, to supporting defense within, say, eastern europe and so on. europe on the other hand is also looking to the u.s. with a mix of resentment of u.s. power and at the same time wishing somebody would fix the middle east. would either of these candidates do things significantly differently? would either -- either of them bring the u.s. back to be the role of world policeman?

>> well, with trump, i agree, you just cannot tell what he's going to do. he doesn't seem to have smart survivors. -- advisors. we don't know who he would pick as the vice president. hillary, on ththe other hand, i ressh very reliable. she would be a very reliable partner for europe and the ununion. it's always like a give and take and i think if the u.s. says, well, europe has to give more in regard to nato, you can question whether the u.s. is doing enough regarding the refugee crisis. so i think there is going to be a lot of talk and negotiations but with hillary clinton it's going to be more reliable. >> trumpt -- trump's call for europe to spend 2% of g.d.p. is actually a p pretty good call. the u.s. has been carrying the ball for nato for a long, long time and countries like germany just talk about doing more for

analyst but they don't. of all the things that trump has come up with, that's one that caught my eyes as one that makes sense. >> and he's already looking forward to talks with putin. so you wonder, are they going to join the juan -- sauna together or what are they going to do? it's that level. but apart from the nato thing, of course you are right on that. ththe 2% we're supposed to contribute, we don't contribute. >> why is europe drag its feet on nato? >> that's a long story! [laughter] i think it will be difficult to change but i think it will probably gradually change. >> you said hillary clinton would definitely be more reliable but in fact one of her advisors has said a key motto for hirg clclinton is "when in dodoubt, act." couldn't that lead to a more activist mflt doctor mrlt role that might in fact be uncomfortable? >> could be. i think what helps hillary

clinton in some regard is that bernie sanders has been in the way for so long. he made her a better candidate, om a european standpoint a already -- more left wing candidate. and a president clinton would not forget totally about all those aspects. of course she's shown she has a strong voice on n foreign polic and is ready to act. we all r.b.i. the -- remember the picturere when bin laden wa killed and she was sitting right next to obama and she voted on the iraqi war so we don't have to forget about that. >> here comes the moment all presenters love and guests hate. i'm going to ask you to give a forecast, who you think is going to win the election. and you are allowed to explain or one or two sentences. >> i think trump is going to have a hard time even finding a vice president candidate.

i think clinton is going to win in a land slide, a very big victory. >> i totally agreement she might not be loveved but she's respected, she's reliable and that will carry her through eventually. she's going to win. >> i have to agree. hirg -- hillary clinton is going to make it. her conventional qualities will reassure the american public that she is a good president. >> so, what could change that calculus. all three of you have given your vote for clinton. what, if anything, could lead to a different outcome? >> if she has a big legal problem in the fall with the emails. if she ends up in the court and has problems with that, that could be something in the works for her. if bernie sanders doesn't do the right thing and bowow out gracefully, if the left-wing supporters of bernie sanders don't vote for her. if trump were to get his act together and start sounding more presidential. it could be a closer race but

doesn't look like it's going to happen right now. >> yeah, if trump would change his personality all of a sudden that mide -- might be dangerous. all the other points dangerous, yes, but probably will not cost her the victory. >> i think changing his personality would help him, but it's not going to happen. as a mentioned before, i think we wouldld have to sigh -- see major terrororist attack. i don't think it would make him necessarily win the white house but it would make it much closer. >> thank you very much for all of us for being with us here on "quadriga" and for you out there for tuning in. hope to see you next time. bye bye.

anchor: this week, we visit the philippines. dolphins playing is a common sight. why is that? daily life in yemen is a battle for survival. it is forgotten by the world. businesses expect guarantees for investments they make abroad. if changes to a law disadvantage a company operating there, they want the right to sue the