♪ >> hello, at a very warm welcome to quite regret, coming to you from the heart of berlin -- welcome to quadriga. the votes handed angela merkel a historic fourth term in office. partyr right alternative entered for the first time with just under 13% of the vote. how will a weakened angela

merkel respond domestically and internationally? our question this week on quadriga. what now, frau merkel? andrea'skluth, who says angela merkel is now a lame-duck and will get weaker as a four term progresses. but in a world of bullies, dictators, prima donna's, she last best hope. , ao with us is werner familiar figure. he believes europe needs angela merkel's leadership more than ever, but after her devastating election setback, she faces a desperately complex task of forming a new coalition. hu,a warm welcome to pascal she says with agues weakened

angela merkel -- welcome to pascal hugues. let's begin with you, pascal. give us a little bit of the flavor of how the election outcome here in germany has gone down, with all the surprises it brought with it. shockingk it's a bit and probably a disappointment for emmanuel macron, who two days ago made a big speech about europe, presenting his vision of europe for the future, and he coalition,,t the big the grand coalition, was re-conducted. he had a chance of realizing partly his program. but now it's going to be very , i think it's a bitter feeling you have in france, that it last the french are back on

with the young president who wants to introduce reforms who has ideas about europe, now the at leastoing to be until christmas discussing this new coalition. everybody was saying the germans usual boring, business as , they didn't want experimentation, and now here we are with big experimentation as a little bit in germany. >> i was smirking, the germans reputation, they love order, they're a bit boring, they're going to sort this out, and suddenly it has become -- i thought it was interesting all along, it wasn't boring, but suddenly it's becoming a cliffhanger with the possibility, not a probability, of actually failure, not just negotiations that at least lead

to christmas and beyond, but coalitions that lead nowhere at all and possibly new elections. i don't think that's likely, but if germany is from the point of view of france, which is very important to germany, since the pention, the worry that le could be the one next time, merkel is hoping for several months for this time to help macron for as much as she could. that is on hold for the time being for the reasons that pascale just mentioned. >> how much has angela merkel's political mandate been weakened in the last few days? >> it has been weakened a lot, no doubt about it. cliffhanger i think is the right description right now. this is where we are, and it will take a while. we have no government in the , for 1.5 years, and therefore the same thing will happen here in germany.

dead, we politically do have a working government, and therefore we will see a very am a very complicated and complex attempt to form a new government, very open-ended, no doubt about it, but the world can rest assured germany will continue to do its job in the face of insecurity around us, no doubt about it. but in the e end, because theres nonot alternative to this government, nobody wants new elections, it will happen. the only question is when, and under what conditions. the conditions will be very, very complicated. >> the voice of reason there. i'm not sure i quite buy into what you're saying. the short statement from the chancellor. let's listen to it and then talk some more. >> i don't know what we could have done differently.

into thist of thought election campaign, and i rented the way i planned it. >> what do you say there? at that, i see angela merkel, who is normally so cool, kong, and collected, looking clueless. exclude us is absolutely the right work. when we try to describe the current major players, it's even worse in the verio right now. they're the word is really big, clueless, definitely. i was almost shockcked when i heard angela merkel on monday saying we did everything ok, there was no need to change. go on sayiningn't let's move on like before, that's impossible in german politics right now. we do need change, no doubt about it, but because the central question is, will we achieve that goal?

and before angela merkel can really enter into any meaningful negotiations about a new government, she has to clarify her relationship with the party. >> i just want to hear little more about angela merkel. how her psyche is at the moment. the financial times said she has taken a hit. that was quite evocative. >> her psyche, i once wrote a large piece just about her body language, which suggests -- i talked to a psychologist about this, she has a low cortisol level. she does not get stressed as easily as other people get stressed. i have to think that even the situation is intractable, she's probably the best person for it. so her psyche, i'm not worried about. she said something very interesting in the roundtable discussion on television, in calm, there is strength. that is her model. her principal is to slow things down. the fact that things will be

slow, she likes to decelerate things, observe, allow others to make mistakes. i don't think her psyche -- i just think the political role in germany around her has actually changed. she's in a new situation that will render her weaker. you telling your readers and friends about where these coalitions might go, how long they might take and how much risk there is involved in all this? >> just to come back to what you been saying, i think in this world where you have so many loonies around, it's a very good quality for leader, especially a german leader, because this is a very important country. but i find angela merkel a little bit stubborn. more than one million people who would normally vote for her, for the extreme

right with revisionist undertones. she says yes, we have to get these people back, but i don't hear enough on how to get them back. you really have to react now against that, and let's see if this coalition will manage to get these people that, but you have to take these people seriously. >> i think an aspect of the talkingthat pascale is about is that germany is a divided country, east and west. the alternative to germany getting something like 11% in the west of the country, and twice as much in the east of the saxony,in the state of they are actually the strongest force in that state. >> one can regret it, and one has to regret it, but that is

the fact. .he has to offer answers she comes from the east, but she -- theselly offered , and for ananswers outsider, it's very hard to explain, but really going out there in the east, when you travel to the east and you see all the cities and towns rebuilt theymut kohl once said really created them big-time, and that it's very hard to understand what's really going on in these five states. but the fact is, people do not really identify with western germany, they never arrived there, and it's obvious now, more obvious than it has been.

therefefore, angela merkel and e other parties as well each offer new answers. >> as complex as that is. >> let's just get some pictures now, the pan-european challenge now facing germany and other european countries from the similar parties in those other countries. >> sunday's election was a political trying out for the amd. the party will help all the 90 seats in the bundestag. if this is a warning for german politicians that the people want something different. do not acceptple chancellor merkel's migration policies to the extent that they haven't implemented. >> right-wing parties now have seats in the parliament's of 20 e.u. state. that gives the party leaders confidence. >> their presence is beneficial,

and we will continue to work on building the europe we want. >> austria's freedodom party has expressed similar sentiments ahead of parliamentary elections set for october. >> or goal is to keep p controlf our country. that's what we intend to do. we have high hopes. what sort of europe to the right-wing parties actually want? pascalea good question, we know there anti-immigration, anti-islam, antiforeigner, anti-e.u. for these populist parties a genuine threat to the e.u. itself? threat, depending on how much they are not in the government, that's the first thing. they have a lot of impact in terms of influence but they are

not in the government. they're not able to make the laws or to decide anything, so that's a good thing. emmanuel macrcron did two days ago is to try to rejuvenate, to get some new energy to the european idea, and that's a very good thing that he young man, he's going to be 40 in december, it's another generation, we know that the older generation are very pro-european. now it's this young, globalized generation. he speaks perfect english, the first president we have in france who speaks english. we have a prime minister who studied and lived in germany. it's a globalized generation. they want to make it clear to the people how important it is to be united in this world, which is very complicated. it's better to build a european

bloc than if every country is acting for itself, but people are very frightened. i just wanted to say it's interesting that the extreme right voters in germany do not vote because they are frightened of losing, it's not the main issue that there frightened of losing their economic strength. it's for ethnic and cultural reasons, their frightened that the cultlture will be taken awa, their language, that they're being invaded by islam. so you have to calm down people and reassure them. >> oh emmanuel macron is the antithesis to the far right are less listen really to what he had to say earlier in the week when you really are down the gauntlet to angela merkel. that come proposing to germany and new partnership. we will not agree on everything, but we will discuss everything. for those who say that the task is impossible, my answer is, you become p pessimistic.

i have not. >> tell us a little bit more about emmanuel macron's vision for europe and what he might or might not get from germany, what he might or might not get from angela merkel, who turned the tide a little bit after this election, i cents. >> i think a lot of his gonesals are -- would have down quite well as the german elite just before the election. collaboration, foreign n and security policies, all of which are things that make good sense, but the important one, and the one that's going to cause problems during these negotiation coalitions is his call for a common eurozone finance minister, a common budget and fiscal capacity, which the greens in the coming coalition talks are for, which the social democrats would have been for, but they bowed out, which angela merkel herself might have even entertained, but

which the bavarian party and the free democrats rigidly and stubbornly will oppose because they think they fear getting punished yet again by voters, because they fear it is the beginning of a slide into a transfer union, from their point of view, were germany will permanently subsidize other countries, and they want to avoid that. so this will be one of several key sticking points and one reason why, because it's the big issues, that will compromise on the small issues, but it's the big issues where they won't get on the same page. >> are people saying about the head of the liberal free democrats here in germany? friendspparel he told that if the liberal center the government, with a look likely to do at the talks workout, he said i'm done for. >> i will be dead, he said he

needs to be optimistic, so let's be optimistic. he's not at all known in france, but now we are discovering him. >> he's being compared to macron. not taking any bets on that. there is a big difference. [laughter] a difference of stature, i would say. >> is macron going to get a deal from germany? to look at what angela merkel had to say about it yesterday through her spokesperson. he said in her name that she is praising his speech the time, it's very important that it did raise all these important issues, but in the end, she did not support his ideas. this is what we are facing now. nobody germany realllly wants aa

transfer union, this is the most important point, nobody wants that, and nobody can push it through. nevertheless, there is some real substance to what he has to say. europe has to come out of the status quo. it has to move forward, but the question is how. therefore it i is important to y this new coalition will not be into european,n, the question wl be how can we move europe forward, but definitely not the transfer union were germany is going to pay big time for the other countries, especially in the south. a saying the idea is to use ,up common eurozone budget that's something we simply won't go along with. quest that's exactly what i just said. climate policy, the diesel gate crisis, those are some of the others, and of

course refugees is perhaps the biggest. if we could just stay with the eurozone for the sake of that, i'm probably more pessimistic than you, that these negotiations can succeed. >> a stalker little more broadly about what angela merkel can and cannot achieve on the international stage. he said at the top of the show hope foris our last achieving what, and why the last hope? >> it's interesting right now, her stature outside of germany, especially in north america, by the way, is gigantic and even in parts of asia. it's only in germany that were close to her and we hear her in the original german where we consider her week now. but what does she stand for? she stands for multilateral, not a unilateral world. she stands for all of us together. she stands for cooperation, she stands for opposing violating

the borders of sovereign states, as putin did in the ukraine. world, asd global opposed to a closing world of re-nationalization. that's what she stands for. that's what we used to call the liberal world order. it was premature to call her the leader of that order and she herself has said that his grotesque, because that's what german leaders must do it since the war, german leaders have to keep a low profile and manage expectations down, but that's where she is. the only possible partner she has on the, shall we say, multilateral and globalist and open side is emmanuel macron. quick so how is she now currently seen in france? what about angela merkel in france? >> is very interesting, the whole campaign focused on angela merkel. she's a sort of goddess in french like her ability to make compromises.

she is not corrupt like the french politicians. she is very low-key. there's a lot of admiration, a little bit like gorbachev, who is not so much liked in his own country but adored outside. in france it's very, very clear. even if she's lost a lot of power now, the french are very relieved that she is there to very tumultuous world as a moment. >> i think 80% of what she just rightly described as the virtues of angela merkel will be supported by her coalition partners. there's one dividing thing and that's a big one, that is immigration. how we deal with the immigration problem, and there you see a huge difference, especially between the csu, the party -- bavarianbavarian

prime minister and angela merkel . the central question here is the limit. will they put a limit on the number of refugees that can come to germany? angela merkel is resisting this. so we'll see what they really say about that, but this is a sticking point. therefore they have to find a solution, and nobody reallyy knows how this will come about. thereforore as i already stated, the most important question is if merkel is ready and able to reunite with the csu. this is the most important question that she has to attack h hasnow, and until she reached an agreement, nothing will move forward in these

negotiations. >> i think if i'm a sort of generalized as to what were seen across the west, times of change so much that the traditional party landscapes are being shaken up. that, trump is not a traditional republican. either republicans or democrats knew what to make of him. emmanuel macron came with his own. i think of you look at this conundrum we are in germany, germany is overdue for this kind of shakeup. i think it is coming. one of the things for possible future show, if you said five or 10 years out, i cannot see this ship between the christian social union and christian democratic in you and for seven decades, i cannot see that lasting much longer. they will go their separate ways. they are just not willing to admit it yet.

>> the question here is who is the new trump in germany and who is the new macron in germany? we only have angela merkel for the time being. >> you know which name, but you're not going to mention it. >> the populists are fighting against each other and there's the rumor that the party will split into. it's not as organized. >> about to draw on your encyclopedic knowledge, we have a four term chancellor. there have been two that have gone before. what can you tell us about what clues that might give us about how this will pan out? >> germans were tired of helmut kohl. that's why he lost the elections and eventually because it's a novel process that will eventually happen to angela merkel.

soon, but whether she will be in office four years from now, i don't know. knonow but it could happen to her like it happened to helmut kohl. it's always very complex for a politician to find a way out. >> my theories that angela merkel has looked at both of them and concluded that they failed in two ways. they did not allow a successor to emerge, and i think she will in this term decide to allow one to emerge, and that's why she is a lame-duck. >> i'm going to say the name we were talking about is gutenberg. we've got to go, i can hear the music here thanks very much for joining us. topic was what next for angela merkel. goodbye.

♪ brian: hello and welcome to "fokus on europe." i'i'm brian thomas, greaeat toe you with us. will, so far this year, about -- well so far t this year, abt , 100,000 refugees have made their way across the mediterranean from north africa to europe. most of them want to somehow get to germany. but the balkan route is shut down, and austria has joined hungary in enforcing tough border controls. and that means many of the refugees trying to make it across the alps are risking their lives in thehe process. reporter: rosenheim station in southern germany.