speech. >> you're watching al jazeera. a reminder of our top stories, the first group of evacuees from the besieged steel plant in markable have evacuated -- kherson --mariupol have evacuated. hundreds more still thought to be trapped there. the teenager has been killed after russian forces targeted the city of odessa. russian rockets strike that the port city for the third time. >> today the russian army
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at least once. the u.s. state of tennessee has halted executions for the rest of the year, this follows concerns raised by advocates of prisoners on death row and the state's failure to follow testing procedure. muslims across the world are celebrating the holiday marking the end of ramadan with the easing of pandemic restrictions. mass prayers and celebrations are once again a hallmark of the festivities. we follow those stories on our website al20.com. i will be back with more news. this is inside story. >> chad, again delays a dialogue on national peace.
the military government opposition groups and rebels were supposed to start discussions on a new constitution in hold elections. after your of political turmoil, what will this mean for chad? this is inside story. hello, welcome to the program. it has been a year of political upheaval in chad. the sudden death of the president last april left the power vacuum, his son and army general took over and formed the transitional was her cancel. muhammat, returned -- promised a quick return to democracy but that has not happened. a national dialogue with appositional groups and fires have been postponed. the talks were supposed to talk next week -- start next week. 300 representative from the
military government and rebel forces have been holding preliminary discussions. they have made little progress on reforms and elections. the of the delay will give all sides more time to give -- reach a peace agreement. how did chad get here? rebels launched an incursion during elections last year. that winning the poll, the president was killed for visiting the front lines. his son, four-star general muhammat rapidly took over in a coup. he promised to hold elections in 18 months. after a national dialogue. as a precondition to join those talks, rebels demanded amnesty and release of prisoners. he complied, and march, rebels and opposition groups began talks, a month later than scheduled. chad's stability is crucial force neighbors, the country lies across, and beside africa. as soldiers are integral to the g5 join force, battling arm
groups in the region. -- armed groups in the region. let's bring in our guest, joining us from chad's capital, he is a senior researcher at the institute for security studies. he is a security analyst at. the consultant dfo politico. he joins us. joining us from -- is an rica, she is the director of the central africa project at the international crisis group, a very welcome to you all. let me start with you today, the dialogue of national peace has been delayed, once again. what are the reasons for that? >> i think the main reason an official one we know for now is -- now is a demand from tar, asking the chadian to postpone to the 10th of may as planned. the money came from made by the
different rebel groups that are sitting, discussing the transition of government. this came as a result of the fact that debates are not really moving forward. people sitting there are far from peace and agreement. and coming to the national inquisitor that is supposed to be starting. here are the main reasons for that. >> after a year of such political turmoil what does this delay mean for chad? >> the main consequence of the delay is the impact on the overall transition. the 18 month transmission -- transition was supposed to end of this year with the celebration of elections. and the establishment of elected authorities.
this may raise concerns about the length of the transition. and the opportunity of the italian authorities that have taken power, after the former president. >> the discussions that happen going on and thus far, how have they been going? >> i think one of the things is that the issues are very complex and they are very long-standing. the problem in chad today it did not just start, even with the former president in office, there were groups that were very dissatisfied with the government. rebel groups, opposition groups,
these are very long-standing issues. it is a bit too optimistic to expect, within 18 months you could agree and have a very solid conversation and ended with a declaration to say, we can move on to it. one of the things you have to recognize is it would take a good amount of time to actually address these issues. across, political reforms, or questions about the state itself and also there are territorial issues. i did not look at the timeline as pragmatic, given the complexity of the issues. >> you were just talking about how complicated these issues are and how far they go back. we surprised that the delay
happened? or have happen or were you expecting them? >> i was expecting them. if you look at comments coming from one of the african diplomats, who was observing the talks, he was not surprised as well. that is because, for instance, if you look -- the government in chad commits to the process. they wanted the government to grant amnesty as a precondition for talks. the government that it back in november. so, there is commitment from the government. if you look at the rebel side, that is where it gets complicated. you have demand growing.
should he stand for reelection. the government itself has made concessions but you also have to consider, the competing rival, was a between the opposition and rebel movement. between the main bus making of this group, there are very strong issues that divide them. you have to settle this because if you just rush the process, what you have is a declaration or agreement that is just a valid for one people. >> i's are you nodding along to what he was saying, did you want to jump in? >> yes. i was on the same line, on the fact that there is a concern in
chad, on the fact that it cannot be gone without the president, of the main leaders of the groups. there is some tolerance in terms of delay. but the delay is starting to get more frequent. it was supposed to be out by the end of the list last year. then it was postponed again. , so this starts becoming an issue, also in terms of the revision of the constitutional charter. this was one of the first engagements and conditions by the african union, after they
established the meeting of transitional authorities. he cannot run for election after the end of the transition and the risen -- revision of the constitution is one of the key points that should be discussed. all of those are issues. they are still open. >> you wrote a piece in march in which you said, the partner supporting the transition, dialogue and reconciliation process should be firmer on the need to respect the time frames and ensure conclusiveness so that no stakeholder is left on the sideline. a stalemate can see chad slide back into political instability. how concerned are you at this time that instability could continue and grow?
>> yes. i am concerned by the fact that if we do not reach any agreement, a national dialogue is holding this meeting of most of the biggest urban groups. are out of the deal. it means that they could. still be able to have the country stable. an important factor of coming to a peace agreement. but what is making the peace agreement fading is having the composition of different groups actually sitting at the table. the groups are so fermented. so, how can we come to a peace agreement at the division is just between the government and the different groups that are speaking? but also we give other groups a seat at the table. we are facing two situations.
the first is that there is no more visibility when the national dialogue happened. there is no visibility on which would be the issue of doha. and after that, when should the transitional period end? the initial 18 months that have been planned, are insufficient, finish in the discussions in doha. and going to elections. there's something people are not considering when discussing the coming meeting. there's too much stressing on the dialogue discussion. but at the same time, there is something very important that have a lot of dynamics that need to be addressed. they are linked to intercommunal conflict, to. corruption and a lot of other problems.
so, if all of this is not solved, there will still be questions about the inquisitiveness of that dynamic. but then having socials within the country. it is also something that is very important and actually is enforcing. most of that is discussing the future of the country. >> just how crucial is chad's stability for his neighbors? how concerned are chad's neighbors at this time because of what is going on? >> chad is -- has a very key role in national security given the fact that you look at the issue of the chadian army has played a strategic role in pushing back on that army in the heat of the war in 2010.
the army was very targeted in crushingit -- crushing it. one of the things people look forward to is the presence of the former president going to the warfront and face the combat. so, chad, not only serves that very important military role, but also it is a good logistics job for international security. patterns for countries. jed -- thaad -- chad joined task force with nigeria. it plays an important role for the issue -- and also addressing the environmental issues within the region. of course, the headquarters is,
they coordinated with nigeria to see how they can address in chad because of the shrinking food supply. if you do not add this issue of food security crisis, we will not be able to solve some of the most important drivers of the conflict. it is not just terrorism. it is an important group in all of the measures. even, -- the issue of incorporation, the multinational task force, it's a very
important country, that is why leaders and analysts across the region are watching closely what is happening because if chad can gain more stability and more political stability to become an at an even better position to support. >> if chad continues to slide into instability, what does that mean for security and for the battle against insurgency in africa? >> the stability of chad is a key issue for the entire region. not only as being fortified but also for the rest of the neighboring countries. i am thinking about sedan -- sudan. most of it is committed by the
militia. the conflict crosses the border into chad. looking at the southern border, also the situation with the central africa republic has been a cancer in the past era. especially after the inclusion of russian nationalism, last year in may and september. this is something that the authorities are monitoring closely because they may be factors in the country. a stable chad, they're currently
in chad on the southern border. the same thing for sudan. the eastern border is a full of sudanese militia. chad is a key. in determining to maintain the stability, but they affect the authorities election. it is one of the key conditions. there are many transitions ongoing in the region, especially now. it is not the only one but for the moment, we will have to see
if this will continue to be the case. >> i know we touched on this early in the conversation but the amnesty law was designed to draw armed groups into the transition process, does that include some entities? >> i think globally, amnesty laws is not excluding the biggest group that are a concern. the factors have been included in the fight where the president is not excluded from this amnesty. globally, that it is it -- that is it. but how the amnesty will be play concretely on the ground, i think this is also one of the reasons for which some of the main rebel troops are not keen. there are discussions, for the national title. the way this amnesty might be
play down is also for the main rebel groups including someone like the head of it. >> the front for change and concorde in chad is demanding amnesty for all of its fighters, that an issue that can be resolved? >> that would be very difficult because the government will give amnesty. what we have to understand is this particular group is responsible for the debt of the president -- death of the president. his son is empower. any son who knows the start -- circumstances on that and has of -- has a part to do something he will do it. it will be very difficult for
the current president grant a full comprehensive or broad range of amnesty for all of it. it is a personal issue, as much as it is about the national consideration. maybe, he will use it to get a concession to run for the election. it is not politics but at the same time it is all personal. him, as a leader, he stepped into his father's shoes. he is doing his best but he will argue on how the country is running. it seems, business as usual. but that to some extent, he would argue that he has a capacity to continue to ruin the country. if the front for change is insistent on getting comprehensive and wide amnesty
he may push them to actually support his position on being able to be reelected. it is a very personal issue for him and that may not be possible. >> from talking to you, this all sounds like an extremely complicated process, some might say perhaps it is irreconcilable. i want to ask you, are there some immediate steps that can be taken in order for the groundwork to be laid for reconciliation among all chadians? >> the transitional authority of done something that at least for what i have seen so far was not that usual. opening the political space to opposition leaders and civil society organizations.
what can be done is that it is political openness. not only transitional, during this difficult month where we actually change the political scene. the current elite are running the country would actually effectively open the political scene two other parties. it would radically change the situation in the next term. as mentioned, it is important to keep the engagement that was at the beginning of the transition, and may need to be revised. or chart the constitution, to include the eligibility for the correct transitional authorities for the upcoming election.
something that can also be done, in terms of coming down intercommunal attention in different parts of the country's , is also to include and to make this diagram the most inclusive possible in terms of community from all around the country. not getting the impression that this is something they are keen on in the elite of the country. the situation -- the council will not change, including as much as possible in different communities, making them part of the process and give a space, to discuss land, different
community tensions, corruption and about all of the problems that are not being put on standby during this transition. >> we have run out of time, we are going to have to leave the conversation. xo much for all of our guest -- thanks so much for all of our guests. thank you for watching, you can see the program by visiting our website aljazeera.com. you can also join the conversation on twitter. from heat -- me and the whole team, goodbye for now.
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