and good morning. i'm steve kornacki and here it is. welcome to super tuesday part two. four states up for grabs on the republican side today, hawaii, idaho, mississippi and then the big one, michigan. michigan the biggest prize on the board, our first big test for candidates in the rust belt so far this primary season. will the state restore donald trump's grip on this republican race or will it push us closer to that thing we have never seen in the modern era of presidential politics, the contested convention. the latest poll in michigan putting donald trump ahead by 13 points, ted cruz and john kasich essentially tied for second. a note to that poll at the very end the final two days it showed

kasich surging. for ted cruz this is a good test of how he performs in this part of the country, the rust belt, he was in michigan last night, today he is in north carolina, that's a state that's going to vote next tuesday. for john kasich a strong showing in the wolverine state could keep his campaign alive and give it new momentum heading into next week's critical showdown in his home state of ohio. meanwhile a more urgent question for marco rubio, his star may be fading ahead of next week's big primary in florida. a brand new statewide poll out this morning there has trump leading rubio by 20 points. there is some good news for rubio, though, in a monmouth poll of florida he does show -- it does show that he has a big lead among florida's early voters. that doesn't necessarily mean he has the edge overall, though. trump still leading rubio even in that monmouth poll. nevertheless rubio spent all day yesterday in florida and he is spending all day there today.

>> if we nominate someone that a third of our party hates we lose. if we nominate someone that people won't vote for we lose. >> donald promised the people of this country he would be flexible. that's code word for they're about to stick it to you. >> i feel that i got the worst publicity of any human being in the world. okay? >> a vote for john kasich or a vote for ted cruz in florida is a vote for donald trump. >> a vote for marco rubio or a vote for john kasich is a vote for donald trump. >> do you swear that you're going to vote for donald trump tomorrow? raise that hand. i love you. i love you. >> and mean while on the democratic side things are looking bleak for bernie sanders. he trails by double digits heading into today's vote in michigan, michigan is a state he really has to have if he's going to have any shot at catching hillary clinton and winning that democratic nomination. looking at this race from 20,000

feet the trajectory remains more or less the same. a new nbc news survey monkey online poll shows clinton leading by 17 points nationally, in fact, a slight uptick for her there. on the republican side donald trump still on top, but it is getting a little tighter. ted cruz moving into second place. we have got all the action covered for you this morning. gabe gutierrez is following marco rubio in florida, hallie jackson is with ted cruz in north carolina and peter alexander is at the heart of all the action today in detroit, michigan. gabe gutierrez, i will start with you on the marco rubio beat. so obviously rubio some bad news lately for his campaign, but now word of a big time assist for marco rubio from mitt romney. what can you tell us about it? >> hey there, steve, good morning. yes, the marco rubio campaign is really focusing all in on florida right now, they have a rally later on today in the sarasota area before heading to the jacksonville area later this

evening. as you mentioned mitt romney now recording a robo call for the marco rubio campaign in four states voting today and the thinking is it could potentially help marco rubio in a state like idaho with a significant mormon population, as well maybe in michigan where romney's father was the governor there. it's a steep climb for marco rubio especially in michigan some polls have him down there in fourth place. that would be a very disappointing finish for marco rubio in michigan, but let's take a look at romney's robo call that he recorded. >> hello. this is mitt romney. and i'm calling on behalf of marco rubio for president. i believe these are critical times that demand a serious thoughtful commander in chief. if we republicans were to choose donald trump as our nominee i believe that the prospects for a safe and prosperous future would be greatly diminished. and i'm convinced donald trump

would lose to hillary clinton. >> a spokesperson for mitt romney says that romney is willing to do the same and help out the other campaigns from senator ted cruz or john kasich in any way. his focus is to stop donald trump, but again, the key -- the key race right now for marco rubio campaign is here in florida. that monmouth university poll has him down at -- down 8 points here in florida, but has him virtually neck and neck with donald trump here in northern florida. really trailing significantly in central florida. the rubio campaign feels that they can perhaps gain some momentum from this debate later this week in miami, but his critics are calling on him to get out of the race, the question will be can he gain enough traction in the next couple of days to be able to take on donald trump. steve. >> all right. gabe gutierrez in florida with the rubio campaign. we will be talking in just a minute by the way to marco rubio's communications director. mean while let's bring in nbc's hallie jackson. she is in raleigh, north

carolina, the state capital there, also where ted cruz has an event set for noon today. hallie, obviously a big day, a lot at stake for ted cruz, he got some momentum out of last week. the interesting thing to me the last few days is watching ted cruz, he is playing to get that one-on-one fight with donald trump. he still thinks he can get that. >> reporter: it's all he wants, it's all he has been talking about and he has been incredibly explicit about it, yesterday rolling out this new line that we heard from him saying very clearly to a vote in his words -- a vote for marco rubio or john kasich is a vote for donald trump. so he is laying it all on the line because his campaign believes that if they can get it down to a two-man race cruz versus trump then supporters of rubio and kasich will come to ted cruz and will not go to trump. there are some question marks about that, particularly when you look at the calendar moving forward as to whether ted cruz really can get the delegates that he needs, knock marco rubio, knock john kasich out of race. here today they are looking to idaho to be successful in

michigan i think the campaign wants to make sure they get above that 15% threshold and pick up delegates. watch mississippi, too, steve. you've been talking about it, we've been talking about it this idea that maybe it could mirror louisiana in the idea that late breakers, late deciders will end up shifting over to ted cruz. the campaign feels like it has momentum, talking about its fundraising, talking about what a big day saturday was for the campaign bringing in more than a million dollars online alone. i want you to listen to what ted cruz has to say about what you might call or what he might call cruz-mentum. listen. >> i've encouraged, i think, the momentum is surging in our direction and we're seeing a couple of things happen. number one, we're seeing folks who had been supporting donald trump who are realizing he isn't who they thought he was. that donald trump is someone who has been in his own words part of the establishment his whole life. >> reporter: so, listen, let's be real clear about -- everybody wants to claim momentum all the time, everybody wants the

momentum and want to talk about the momentum like they have it. the question is is it real? what are we seeing in polling and most importantly what are we seeing tonight over the next week i think you're going to see ted cruz look to missouri and hear in north carolina for super tuesday a week from today. steve. >> hallie jackson with ted cruz's campaign in raleigh, north carolina. thanks for that. now i want to bring in nbc's peter alexander, he is live in detroit, michigan. michigan the biggest prize on the board today, 59 delegates up for grabs. peter, set the stage for what we can expect in that republican race up there today. >> reporter: well, everybody expects that donald trump should come out the winner here tonight and a win in the wolverine state would be significant for him, it would signal state here in the upper midwest, in the industrial north. obviously he has proven that he is not a regional candidate now spreading wins all across this country, but there are some signs of cracking in the support structure behind donald trump and they come from a monmouth poll that you referenced earlier.

let me show you how the numbers have changed over the course of the last several days. you can see what it looks like in the first couple of days the poll was done, thursday and friday overlapping that -- overlapping that sort of demolition derby debate there, donald trump up 17 points at the time over ted cruz, 39 to 22, kasich at 17. but the interviews that were done as part of that poll over the weekend, after the debate, after mitt romney's comments show trump's lead shrinking at 32%, john kasich at 26% and ted cruz at 25%. that is all very significant here. among the reasons that people anticipate trump would do well in a state like this and frankly in mississippi as well is because these are open primaries, unlike those primaries we saw this past weekend. that means that independents and other nonrepublicans would be allowed to vote today across this state which is obviously part of what has become the broad coalition that donald trump has constructed so far. another dynamic that now is worth considering in this race, we have now heard from the former new york city mayor, of

course, that is michael bloomberg, bloomberg saying that he is not launch an independent 2016 bid, he put out an op ed late yesterday saying the following, he said, i believe i could win a number of diverse states, but not enough to win the 270 electoral college votes necessary to win the presidency. he added, there's a good chance that my candidacy could lead to the election of donald trump or senator ted cruz, writing, that is not a risk i can take in good conscience. steve. >> all right. peter alexander in michigan. thanks for that. earlier this morning donald trump again leading in those polls heading into michigan. he called into "morning joe" about an hour ago, he was asked about some criticism floating around that compares the pledge of support he has asked some people to take at his rallies to the nazi salute. take a listen to what he said. >> talk about what you're doing when you're having people raising their hands and are you in any -- in any way making an

attempt to emulate what hitler or anybody else did -- >> boy, is that a stretch. wow. that's amazing that that would even be brought up. of course not. of course not. that's ridiculous. this is the first i've heard of it this morning. i was on the "today" show and they mentioned it and i said, what is going on here? i think it's ridiculous. it's absolutely -- you know, i have these massive rallies, we have 25,000 people at some of them and more and we're having actually a great time considering the subject merit is not so good meaning the country is not doing well and i say -- and jokingly -- raise your hand if you swear to endorse me and swear to go and vote for me and the entire place practically laughing and having a good time raises their hand. they're raising the hand in the form of a vote not in the form of a salute. that's crazy. that is crazy. >> yeah. >> i can't believe that's even being posed. >> all of us around the table, i

think, actually agreed it was equally crazy, but needed to ask it. >> so, florida, right now you're getting absolutely hammered, about $10 million, $12 million in 30-second ads being spent against you. >> right. >> we see that you have an ad going up against marco rubio. are you going to actually put any money behind that ad or are you going to rely mainly, as you said yesterday, on facebook and twitter to respond to over $10 million in attack ads? >> well, a little bit on facebook and twitter, but also we've put up some ads and they're good ads and spending a couple of million dollars, maybe a few million dollars, i don't know what the final determination is, but they're up, we already have ads that are up, and, you know, we'll find out if they're effective, but certainly the establishment is just hammering me with ads. i had the big tournament down at doral where adam scott won and i'm watching the tournament and i see during the ad portion i

see ads against me and i'm the one having the tournament. i own doral. so it's sort of a weird feeling. but, no, they're spending a lot of money on that. the good news is i'm up against a senator who frankly is very unpopular in florida. he doesn't vote. he doesn't go and vote. i think if he actually ran for an office there he wouldn't be elected dog catcher. >> donald, does it make it less likely that you can make peace with the establishment after this is all over because they are spending so much money in attack ads specifically directed at you? >> well, you know, i've always gotten along with people, i think you understand that. i've always gotten along, i've had great relationships with people over the years. i've had feuds and i've had fights with people and i've been able to get along. we will have to see. i think we can. the bottom line s you know, the biggest story in politics is how many people are showing up to these primaries. i mean, you know, there are 50, 60, 70%, millions of additional people over four years ago, four years ago they were dying the

republicans and now it's been energized. you know, instead of being given credit they take ads against me. i will tell you if i am out, if for some reason i'm out you will lose millions and millions of potential voters out of the republican party. and i don't think there's any track, any way that the republicans can win. frankly, if you take all of these new energized people, people come up to me, there trump, i've never voted before. 40, 50 years old, i've never voted before, this is the first time in my life i've voted. you have to see these people, they're incredible, they've never voted before many of them and others. they're coming from the democrats, they're coming from the independents. it's the biggest story in politics what's happening with the republicans and i've done a great job and i'm not being given credit, instead they take ads against me. the funny thing is if they're successful and if i don't win all these people are going away, joe. these millions and millions of people. they are not going to vote for rubio. they're not going to vote for

ted cruz. >> if they take this from you at a convention will you run as an independent? >> i don't know, joe. i don't even want to think about it now. i mean, to be honest i'm the front runner by quite a bit, cnn had me at 49 the other day, 49 to 15, i think 15 and 15 for the two of these guys. i hear rubio is getting out. there was big stories all over the place that rubio is getting out. i don't know if he's getting out. he probably should. he hasn't won hardly anything. he probably should get out and he's not popular. he's not popular in his own state. he has defrauded his own people because he said he was going to be a senator he doesn't go and vote. >> mark halperin. mark. >> mr. trump, in 2014 what was your effective tax rate and how much did you give to charity? >> well, i gave a lot of money to charity, i could release a list. i don't talk about my tax rate because i'm under audit, but when the audit is finished i will give you my tax returns. i've also filed full financials with the federal elections commission and it's almost 100

page so you have my full financials talking about all of the things you have to talk about including worth and all of those things, cash flows, worth, very little debt, tremendous cash flow, great company, some of the greatest assets in the world, which frankly you can't learn about from a tax return. honestly you can't learn very much from a tax return, almost -- frankly, almost nothing, but i've filed my financial statements with the federal elections commission. that was donald trump earlier this morning on "morning joe." donald trump the front runner heading into the vote in michigan today, in fact, the polls in the wolverine state for that primary are now open. on the front page of the detroit free press this morning here is the head line, get out and vote, it's michigan's moment. to help us sort out what to watch tonight as the results roll in national political correspondent karen tumulty joins me from miami this morning. she is going to be co-hosting a

democratic debate tomorrow in florida. let's talk about the republicans. there is a lot of debate going on, a lot of conversation going on looking at tonight, looking back at what happened over the weekend. i think the question people are looking to have resolved tonight is did something change in this republican race in the last week that slowed donald trump's momentum and maybe made republicans look anew at some of his rivals? what's your take on that? >> first of all, this is a lovely spot you guys at msnbc have down here in miami. i think that the dynamic -- there is some evidence that the dynamic could be changing, but, you know, we thought that before with donald trump, occasionally he will stall and then he'll pick up another burst of momentum. i'm especially interested in michigan. here is why. it's an open primary and it's also a test of his appeal with white working class voters. not just those who normally vote in republican primaries, but

whether he can sort of draw in new voters and i do think michigan may be the single best test that we have seen of that yet. >> you are down there in florida, of course, we are all looking ahead to that florida primary a week from now. marco rubio, it's make or break for him. we've seen a couple polls there, one has him a little closer than the other one but both have him behind donald trump. what's your sense of the state of play on the republican side there in florida this that do or die test for rubio? >> well, it's certainly uphill and it shouldn't be for marco rubio in his own home state. don't forget, too, that next week is when we hit the part of the calendar where primaries become winner take all. another story line that you are hearing down here is ted cruz who is really, you know, opening up campaign offices, really putting in what we're hearing is a pretty intense ground operation. florida because it's so big is really a hard state to build

this kind of operation, but it looks like, you know, ted cruz is pushing hard as well. so this is really going to be a dog fight here in florida. >> that's an interesting story line, too. it looks like ted cruz is really trying to push marco rubio out of this race, really thinks he has a shot if he can get this thing down to a one on one race against donald trump. it seems the calculation from ted cruz is that if he does that and if he can keep donald trump from getting that first ballot majority at the convention, create that open convention we're always talking about it seems his calculation the republican establishment we always talk about would ultimately choose him over donald trump. what do you think of that calculation? >> well, you know, we're hearing that calculation also from john kasich's people, but here would be my concern, as much as i as a political reporter would love to see a brokered convention because it would be such a great story, i think that if the republican establishment takes this in its own hands and overturns the will of a

plurality of republican voters, they are just going to be reinforcing everything that donald trump's voters hate about the republican establishment. so on the one hand, you know, they think this is the only way to save their party from an electoral disaster in november, on another they are going to alienate a lot of these people who are showing up for their republican primaries. >> all right. karen tumulty in miami on what looks like a beautiful morning there. good luck with that debate tomorrow night. thanks for joining us. >> thanks, steve. we have much more ahead here on msnbc. while the rubio campaign is closely watching today's voting date they're also focused as we've been saying on florida and the spokesman for the rubio campaign is going to join me next after fighting back hard over a report that some advisors were telling rubio to bow out earlier rather than lose his home state. >> jamie's report was utter

nonsense. she did not contact the campaign prior to coming on the show last hour and reporting that. it is 100% absolutely false. i think cnn is doing a disservice to voters by airing that sort of -- that sort of reporting without even checking with the campaign. her sources, what ever they are, have no idea what the internal operations of the campaign are. wolf, i have a lot of respect from you but i'm going to ask you to stop reading that sort of fiction on air because it is not true. if jamie had checked with the campaign and had good sources in the campaign she would know that that is not true. that is fiction and cnn should stop reporting it. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪

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it always comes town to florida. it will come down to florida on the 15th and it will come down to florida in november. i've been here before. i've been in this moment before. when people say something can't be done, i know it can be done and it must be done.

>> marco rubio facing a crucial test next tuesday in his backyard, his home state of florida. a new poll out from tampa television station bay news 9 this morning showing donald trump with a 20 point lead over marco rubio in that state. and yesterday controversy with cnn reporting that some of rubio's campaign advisors discouraged by his prospects in florida are talking about getting out of the race before primary day. rubio's communications director, now, alex conant called that report 100% false. and he joins me now, good morning, alex. we played a clip of that before going to the last break. i want to ask again this morning looking at this new polling out of florida you guys are still -- your sense right now, you still think you can win and will win florida next week, is that right? >> yeah, of course. we know that poll that you just referenced is not accurate. there was another poll by a

respected pollster that had marco closing fast on donald trump, it is a single dimt race. more importantly inside that poll it showed that we are way ahead in the early vote, that tracked with other data we have seen, another poll that was released over the weekend. we know that florida is going to be very, very close but we feel really good about our place in the race there. marco is drawing big crowds, the early vote, the absentee ballots are tracking in a favorable direction for us and we have the momentum going into the final week. look, marco knows how to win in florida, he has won as an underdog before in florida. he beat charlie chris in florida in 2010 we are confident we will win there and when we do it will be a new game on the campaign trail, a lot more delegates, money and momentum and a map that is favorable for us moving forward. >> you had that cnn report yesterday, we had you pushing back against it on wolf plateser and th wolf blitzer -- >> cnn just canceled my

previously scheduled interview on anderson cooper tonight. can you tell us more about that. is it your sense that cnn because of what happened yesterday with your objections to their report are you suggesting they didn't -- they kicked you off the show because of that? >> i don't want to speak for cnn obviously. all i can tell you is that i was scheduled to be on anderson cooper last night, it was a previously scheduled interview. when the first initial false report aired on wolf blitzer's show i contacted the network, wolf was kind enough to have me on so i could respond and set the record straight in realtime. an hour or two later anderson cooper's producers informed me they would not be covering the story and the segment had been canceled and canceled my interview as a result. look, i think cnn has a lot of egg on its face, i don't know how a report made it on air without anybody checking with the campaign to see if there was any truth to it whatsoever. if they had they would have known that the report was false. cnn the story still on their website. i think that's a problem for them. i don't believe they are continuing to report on it on

air but they shouldn't have it on on the website because it's 100% false. i don't know how a report makes it on the air on a major network like cnn without anyone checking with the campaign first. i know msnbc, nbc news, other cable news networks wouldn't allow something on air without checking with some sources at the campaign. that's what happened at cnn yesterday. it was not a fine moment for them. >> let me ask you, too, about the other news this morning. we played earlier that robo call, mitt romney recording a robo call on behalf of marco rubio, although also the romney camp putting out the word he would be willing to help out ted cruz and john kasich, basically just not donald trump. mitt romney's involvement in this race right now, saying he is against donald trump but not taking sides, not picking between the other three candidates out there, is that helping or hurting the cause of stopping donald trump? >> well, i think it's absolutely helping. look, we need to stop donald trump and mitt romney is doing

what he can to help, but we appreciate his support with those robo calls, i understand he is willing to do it for other campaigns, too, because he hasn't endorsed yet but we certainly appreciate it in those key states. if you live in florida right now the best way to stop donald trump, the only way you can stop donald trump is voting for marco rubio. all the polls show all of the early voting shows that marco is the only candidate that has a chance of beating donald trump in florida and ted cruz those in a. that's why he's trying to undermine our campaign there. you had a report saying he is doing things in florida. we have seen no evidence of ted cruz campaigning in florida. he has announced in i plans to go to florida. in hawaii we are seeing dirty contribution. the cnn report the ted cruz campaign send that to some of our supporters in hawaii suggesting that marco rubio is getting out of the race. it's the same thing that he did to ben carson in iowa.

it's evidence that ted cruz is willing to do and say anything. he is not being honest what he is doing in florida and republican primary voters or caucus goers in hawaii today. it's an unfortunate state of the campaign. >> alex, you're mentioning florida and yet there is a report in "politico" this morning today, too, talking about a lot of what you mentioned, this idea that ted cruz and his super pac backing him have his anti-rubio ads ready to go, offices ready to go in florida, they've been sending signals they may make an all out push down in florida and certainly on the stump ted cruz has been saying he wants marco rubio out of this race, he wants a one on one with donald trump. you're saying, though, you think what they're doing in florida is a head fake. what's the reason that they would have for doing a head fake like that? >> obviously to try to underplien our campaign. ted cruz knows that if marco rubio wins florida that we are on pace to winning the nomination. the map gets more favorable for marco after march 15th. there are not going to be any more small rural caucuses that ted cruz has shown that he can

win. instead we move to big states, more urban areas, suburban area, more swing states, states that marco rubio has shown that he can do well in and that ted cruz has underperformed in. remember, we beat ted cruz in virginia, we beat him in south carolina, we beat him in nevada, they beat him in minnesota, in dpa, a state that ted cruz thought he could win. once we get past march 15th the map gets more favorable for marco. if marco wins florida when we win florida then no candidate will be on the trajectory to securing the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination. the odds of a contested convention become higher after march 15th. >> let me ask you about that, then. if that's what we end up with, in phone gets the majority of the in the primaries and you have this contested convention, would it be possible, would it be acceptable do you think for a candidate who does not emerge with the most, with a plurality of delegates from the primary process, somebody who comes in second or third which is what you right now would be on course

for to at that convention leapfrog the person who got the most delegates because that person presumably donald trump would say that's a crime against democracy. >> let me get through the next couple weeks here first. the convention isn't until july, who knows what the state of the race will look like then. i can tell you there's certainly historical precedent for what you just described, but -- where -- we're quite a ways off from that. donald trump cannot be the nominee of the republican party. it would be a disaster for our party in november, not just because we would lose the white house and we would lose the majority on the supreme court but we would lose the senate, i believe we would lose the house, with he would lose a lot of governorers offices and state legislatures around the country. it would be a loss of generational proportions it would take a long time for our party to recover from. that's why i'm asking all of your viewers if you live in florida vote for marco rubio today, vote early, he is the only one who can stop donald trump in florida and that is our best way to make sure he is not the republican nominee.

>> alex conant thanks for the team. senator rubio will be sitting down with chuck todd for a msnbc town hall special, that's tomorrow night 8:00 p.m. eastern time. after the break we're going to turn to the democrats in what has become a critical test in michigan today for bernie sanders. i'm going to talk to his campaign manager next, but first hillary clinton's final plea to voters in michigan. >> it's so important for all of you to turn out as many voters as you can tomorrow because the sooner i could become your nominee the more i could begin to turn our attention to the republicans. hi i'm kristie. and i'm jess. and we are the bug chicks. we're a nano-business. windows 10 really helps us get the word out about how awesome bugs are. kids learn to be brave and curious and all kids speak the language of bug.

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hillary clinton and bernie sanders battle it out for michigan and mississippi in today's democratic primaries. voting is well under way at this hour in both states. here is a live look at a polling station in flint, michigan, nearly 200 delegates at stake in both states today with michigan the big prize. in many ways this could be sanders' last stand as he tries to blunt clinton's momentum. check out our new nbc news survey monkey online national poll this morning, it shows hillary clinton extending her lead over sanders to 17 points. that is up 4 points since her key super tuesday wins. sanders down 3 points since the last time we polled this. >> let's go to cleveland where hillary clinton is holding a post primary rally tonight at cuyahoga community college. kristen welker is there. kristen, what are we hearing from the campaigns as the voters head to the polls today? >> reporter: well, the stakes couldn't be higher. that's for sure. both campaigns concede that.

and we are hearing the rhetoric heat up between secretary clinton and senator sanders particularly over this issue of the auto bail out. secretary clinton has been slamming senator sanders, a part of her closing argument since that debate for opposing the auto bailout. of course, that is something that is credited with saving millions of jobs in michigan and throughout the midwest, including here in ohio. senator sanders has been vigorously pushing back saying that secretary clinton is essentially distorting his record. clinton has been running radio ads, they have both been talking about it on the trail. take a listen to what they both had to say yesterday. >> when the chips were down and the vote was called i voted for the auto bailout, he voted against it because it also helped some other groups like the banks, but, you know, sometimes you don't get perfect chooses in life for politics. so i voted to get that money flowing to save those auto jobs. >> that is absolutely false.

there was one vote in the united states senate, happened to be on december 11th, 2008 and of course i voted to defend the automobile industry. >> reporter: a number of polls show secretary clinton has a double digit lead in michigan and as you pointed out, steve, in some ways this is senator sanders' last stand. he has to be able to win a state like michigan, a larger more diverse state if he's going to be competitive in states like ohio and illinois which of course vote next week. a lot riding on tonight. steve. >> all right. kristen welker in cleveland setting the stage for the big test tonight. thanks for that. after the break i'm going to be joined by bernie sanders' campaign manager, jeff weaver. you're watching msnbc, the place for politics. at mfs investment management, we believe in the power of active management. by debating our research to find the best investments. by looking at global and local insights to benefit from different points of view. and by consistently breaking apart risk

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from detroit. jeff, thanks for taking a few minutes. let me just ask you this a must win state for you tonight? >> look, steve, this is a long process. i know folks in the media every time we have an election it's always this is the most important one ever. i get how that drives ratings but let's be clear, it's a long process, a lot of delegates and a lot of states. this past weekend we won three out of four states, gained a slight -- a small delegate advantage over the course of that weekend. this is a long, long process. we're going to go all the way to the end. california has 400 some odd delegates, new york, pennsylvania. there is no must win state. >> i have to ask you, jeff, we actually have -- we just put it up on the screen the pledged delegate count, these are the delegates given out in these primaries and caucuses we have you down 199 right now, we had you down 195 going into the weekend -- >> well, then -- >> three caucuses, but you saw what happened, you won -- >> your calculations are wrong, then, steve. >> you've won three caucuses and she won one primary and you are

basically in the same place in the delegate race right now. >> that's right. secretary clinton first lady of arkansas has done well in the south, has a long history there. when you get outside the south she has had a difficult time having anything close to a convincing win, massachusetts tied, iowa tied, in evidence up up 5 points when she was up 35 points eight weeks before. every other state sanders has won with large double digit leads. i think what the secretary has yet to prove is that she can convincingly win outside of the south. i have to tell you in the general election if you can't win outside the south you can't win and become president of the united states because the battle ground states are not in the south. >> michigan, though, michigan is a potential battle ground state. we're talking about a big state, a diverse population, i think about 20, 25% of the democratic lake effect cat in michigan is going to be african-american. >> yes. >> the polls show you down there, we will see what happens tonight, but what does that say about your campaign if you are not able to get a win in a state like michigan. >> i think it's going to be much

closer than these public polls, our internal polling, the clinton internal polls shows it much closer. the clinton campaign let's be clear they don't turn on a light unless it's been poll tested and scripted. the fact that the secretary is up here in michigan spending all this time is a testament to the fact that they understand this race is closer in michigan. you have bill clinton now in north carolina, sort of launching on senator sanders down there indicates that they understand that north carolina is closer than the public polls are showing. so this is a long race, steve, and like i said i know that you guys think that it's every race, the next race is the most important. it's a long contest. one of the things that's been disturbing in michigan is this last minute negative vicious and false attack by the secretary on bernie sanders during the last debate. foshs magazine called it cheap election tactics, she was called to task by "the washington post" saying that fact checkers might check it but she's counting on voters not checking in. look, they are now resorting to

dishonest negative -- i won't use the l word but dishonest attacks against the senator. >> i assume what you're talking about here is the bailout issue that she raised in the last debate into yes, the automobile rescue package. >> let's get into that for one second. i take your point, there was a bill in the -- in the senate in 2008, december 2008 that would have paid for the auto bailout, president bush at the time supported it, the democrats supported it, bernie sanders voted for that bill. so let's put that on the record. >> he did vote for it. yes, he did. >> absolutely correct. however, the case that the clinton campaign is making here is that this is an example in their view, this is an example of living in a world a more philosophical world, when it came down to it and that bill was not going to become law, that bill was not going to be passed and that was not going to be the pay to pay for the bail out you either had to take it out of the tarp funds or you

weren't going to bail out the industry. >> there was a letter from larry summers at that time that said that tarp -- the second part of tarp, that money for the auto industry would only come if there was this massive restructuri restructuring, the truth of the matter s steve, and i made this point on another show yesterday, what passes as real politics in washington is about selling people out. that's what it's about. people saying this is the best we could do, that's the best we do do and the lobbyists who fund their campaigns laughing all the way to the bank. that's how washington works. we need people down there with courage who are prepared to stand up for big banks and the wealthy special interest. that has not been hillary clinton's history in her term in washington and that's why they're funding her campaign with millions and millions of dollars. those people aren't tools they know what they're getting. >> jeff weaver, good luck tonight. >> thank you, steve. we will be right back.

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and it's primary day in michigan. a live look from inside an polling station in the city of flint. up next, we're going to talk about just how important this sate is for republicans. especially for a surging john kasich.

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it is a high stakes game for republicans in the state of michigan. 59 delegates up for grabs today. that's the biggest prize on the board in the republican race today. and the wolverine state could also be the comeback state for one of those republican candidates. governor john kasich who has run a distant fourth through much of this race, is surging in michigan. as he makes a final sprint through that state. a new monmouth poll shows him running neck and neck with ted cruz for second place in michigan. still 15 points behind donald trump. but the polling in the final few days showed an even tighter race with kasich closing in on trump. this morning, kasich said his campaign is finally picking up

steam. >> we're growing here. you know, you can feel the momentum here in michigan. thank goodness. and you know, the intensity of the supporters, the people who are for me, is really pretty remarkable. you would be amazed if you saw it. i think we're going to do well here. i think what's happening is people are finally starting to hear me. that's what i think is happening. up until now, not so much. >> and chad is a political reporter for the detroit news. chad, thanks for being here. so, i'll give you a chance here to play a las vegas book maker, the morning line for this republican race in michigan. if you had to set expectations tonight, what would they be for how the race is going to finish in. >> well, the race in michigan is still donald trump's to lose at this point. he's the favorite. he's been holding a double digit lead in most polls over john kasich or over ted cruz in any scenario you look at. but john kasich is the one who is actually campaigning in michigan. all four of these men were in

detroit thursday night for that sort of showdown in motown brawl on stage at the fox theater. and john kasich sort of didn't talk half the time, but he kept on his message that he's trying to stay out of the mud, so to speak. that marco rubio and donald trump and ted cruz have kind of engaged in. and then marco rubio and cruz left the state. trump the next day campaigned on friday, and kasich campaigned every day in the last week except for sunday. he was down back in ohio, because he's obviously putting a lot of eggs in his basket there with the march 15th primary in ohio. but he was back in the state yesterday and making a swing through southeast michigan, and he's in the state today, in lancing. ted cruz did show up last night, late last night right outside of grand rapids for a rally. he was delayed, his campaign in mississippi, which is part of the story of these campaigns. this condensed cycle is these

guys are all over the map. rubio is kind of mostly left michigan to go back home and defend his home turf. >> we're seeing kasich surge. kasich is the governor of ohio. we know about the michigan/ohio state rivalry. you can vote for a guy in michigan? >> he's been trying to play nice with that on the trail. a couple weeks ago, he had a vote in suburban detroit, and he really laid it on thick, saying that tom izzo is magic, which is kind of a term the people, you know, assess with magic johnson, msu great basketball player. and so he's really trying to -- yesterday, he even admitted he was trying to suck up on some fronts. >> i guess he's refraining from bragging about the result of the ohio state/michigan game last year. chad, thanks for joining us. we appreciate it. and that is going to do it for me this hour. i'm stove kornacki. i'm going to see you right back

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and good morning to you. i'm jose diaz-balart. we're coming to you live this morning from the historic miami river. this is a key trade artery between south florida and the americas. about 24,000 jobs are generated right here in the state of florida from this river. we're on our way to garcia's seafood grille on the miami river where politics is served with lunch. first, let's talk about the polls. now open in three of the four states casting ballots today. michigan, mississippi, and idaho. hawaii will vote later today. all together, there are 150 delegates up for grabs.

more than a third of them in michigan alone. but today is just a warm-up for next week's mini super tuesday, the day that will decide whether this race is over in mid-march or extends for another four months. >> raise your hand. i swear i'm going to vote for donald trump next week. i swear. >> obviously, you never know what he's going to say except it's going to be vulgar or profane. >> super tuesday has shown, what super saturday has shown is we're the only candidate that has beaten donald trump repeatedly, and that can and will beat donald trump. >> he's there, he puts it down, and then he starts lying. i call him lying ted cruz. rubio's worse. this guy is such a scoundrel. >> you're be asked to choose the very identity of america, and quite frankly, the identity of the republican party and the conservative movement. >> we started with 17

candidates. as the field manarrows more and more, we're getting closer to a two-man race. >> as we mentioned, the candidates are already looking beyond today. all four are campaigning in states that vote next week, including florida, ohio, and north carolina. of course, no one, no one has more at stake in florida than does marco rubio. two new polls showing he is still traying donald trump from anywhere from 8 to 24 points. nbc's gabe gutierrez is following the rubio campaign in florida. haley jlie jackson is with the campaign. i want to start with you, gabe, with senator rubio is campaigning for a second day in a row. how are they feeling about florida right now? >> good morning. he has events today in the sarasota area and in the jacksonville area later today. his campaign feels like it could be closing the gap just a bit with donald trump. they point to that monmouth university poll released yesterday that shows marco rubio eight points down. yes, there is other polling that

shows him down by double digits. the rubio campaign is latching on to that poll, and that poll shows early voters and absentee voters have significantly gone more towards marco rubio than they have for donald trump. of course, even with eight points down, this is marco rubio's home state. many of his critics say he really should have put more infrastructure here in florida and tried to take the race sooner. i want to play his new line of attack. he's comparing donald trump to one of his previous opponents here in the 2012 senate race, his previous opponent. let's take a listen. >> i have been here before. donald reminds me of charlie crist, a guy who was ahead of me significantly. reminds me of him because he supported him. he gave charlie crist a lot of money. but i feel good about the directions of things. we're going to have to work hard. i have been in this role before, my entire life, actually. it's an important role to play and a role i'm comfortable with. we're going to chemoworking hard. >> and that is what the campaign

is trying to brand itself as, the underdog, yet again, the underdog. they can win. again, he has a very steep hill to climb. he could finish fourth in michigan today. and he has really on super saturday, finished third place in all the states, and fourth in one of them. so this is a very steep hill to climb for the marco rubio campaign. donald trump calling on him to exit the race. again, the rubio camp says they're not leaving, definitely not before florida, and they're saying they will win florida and hope to gain momentum from the debate in miami later this week. jose. >> gabe gutierrez in jacksonville, thank you very much. senator rubio, by the way, will sit down with chuck todd for an msnbc town hall tomorrow night at 8:00 p.m. eastern. i want to bring in hallie jackson who is in raleigh, north carolina, where ted cruz is going to rally two hours from now. cruz seems to be the man with the momentum right now, right? >> he seems to be. but let's see how the voting shakes out tonight, jose.

particularly when you look at a state like idaho where the cruz campaign is feeling good, when you look at michigan, looking to get above the 15% threshold to pick up delegates, and mississippi is really interesting because will it be like louisiana? where you see the late breakers break away from trump. florida, as we look ahead to the next week, where you are, really interesting when you look at the cruz strategy here. he's hoping essentially to keep a lid on marco rubio, knock him out of the race, and make it a head-to-head with donald trump. cruz has been explicit about this, saying over the last fwour hours a vote for marco rubio or john kasich is a vote for donald trump. that's the most clear he's been yet in the race, trying to get it down to a head-to-head matchup. cruz thinks he has momentum. i want you to listen to what he had to say about that yesterday. >> a vote for another candidate, a vote for marco rubio or a vote for john kasich, is a vote for donald trump. because there's only one candidate who has repeatedly

beaten donald trump. there's only one candidate who can and will beat donald trump. that is our campaign. >> so cruz is trying to bring together the folks who would otherwise support rubio, support kasich, in the hopes that that will give him enough support to beat donald trump in contests moving forward and to lock up the nomination prior to the convention. the challenge is that the calendar is not necessarily favorable to a candidate like ted cruz. you look at places like the south, look at places like his home state of texas. those are areas where you would expect cruz to play well. not necessarily the midwest and northeast, which are some of the areas we're moving into. florida, donald trump has been pounded with attack ads. more than $8 million spent against him by campaign super pacs, outside groups as well. will that be enough? can donald trump get past that and take florida? polls show he's ahead by a little bit. but marco rubio making that play.

>> hallie jackson, thank you so much. ted cruz indeed has high hopes of making this a two-man race in the next couple weeks. but according to a new nbc news survey monkey track poll, he has a lot of ground to make up as he trails trump nationally by 19 points. one person who hopes he can can do it, manny roman. good to see you. how confident are you that cruz can actually, you know, make that gap smaller and maybe even here in florida in the next couple weeks? >> we have the wind at our backs. a great super saturday. we think we're going to have another good night tonight. today we announced we raised over $7 million. on super saturday, we raised $1.5 million, the most in a single day. we have the wind at our backs. i think all the candidates in florida have the wall at their backs. we're going to continue to make our push in florida and throughout the other states, and i feel confident this is a two-man race now. i think we have seen that the other candidates don't have a path to the nomination, and we

clearly have a path to the nomination. >> you talk about rubio having a wall at his back. we're not talking about the trump wall he wants to build in mexico, but there is a wall trump has vis-a-vie all of the candidates because he's way ahead and it seems like all of the candidates are having a tough time getting traction at all. >> super saturday, we beat donald trump on delegates. the gap we have with donald trump is closer than the gap marco rubio has with us. we think this is a two-man race. we're going to make the case that donald trump is not a conservative. he's been a liberal for 60 years. he's been on both sides of every issue. once we point out the only conservative option is ted cruz and the other candidates drop out, we're going to win the nomination. >> manny, you know one of the key races is florida. we're here. everybody is talking about florida, not only around the country but around the world. yesterday, marco rubio talked about why florida republicans had to vote for him. listen to what he said. >> florida, it's very straightforward. a vote for john kasich ted cruz

is a vote for donald trump. i'm the only one who has any chance of beating donald trump in florida. if you don't want donald trump to be the republican nominee, you have to vote for marco rubio. >> so donde esta cruz in florida? >> he's coming down. he'll be here for a couple days. rubio has switched his campaign to a single-state campaign. he's polling in single digits in other states. you can't win a presidential nomination in a single state. if he wins florida, which you should if it's your home state, it gives him 99 delegates. he'll still be behind ted cruz. marco rubio wants to make the case if he wins florida, it changes the game. it doesn't change the game. he'll still be in third place and still polling in single digits in michigan and other states. he's got no path to the nomination. if you want to beat donald trump, we want to beat donald trump, you have to get behind ted cruz. >> is cruz here going to make a real strong push in the next week?

>> from the very beginning, we said we're going to run a 50-state campaign. we're going to make a push for florida, and part of the push is how does that affect the national landscape. we're going to make a push, a 50-state campaign. we have 10,000 volunteers in the state, over 300 people in the leadership team, and ten offices. we're going to make a push and hope this is a two-man race soon. >> thank you for being with me. appreciate you coming to garcia seafood. >> with the latest florida gop poll still showing donald trump leading the sunshine state, as marco rubio significantly closing in on trump's original now double digit lead. now the florida senator on the trails in some polls by about eight points. with me now are two extraordinary journalists i happen to call friends as well. been covering florida for years. they also join impact in south florida. great seeing you both. jackie, earlier today, trump was on your television station speaking with one of your

anchors. let's listen to what he had to say. >> well, rubio is doing very badly. he's been a very bad representative of the people of florida. a horrible representative, if you look at it. and doesn't get much worse. he never votes. he doesn't show up to vote. he's got the worst voting record in many, many years in the u.s. senate. you know, the people of florida are not happy with him. >> and jackie, so how is rubio going to try to shift that discussion away from that and into a winning policy in the next week? >> we have been hearing that message from donald trump now for some time now. especially in the last debate. but marco rubio, at least here in south florida, he's pretty confident that he can win south florida, especially with the congressional republican delegation behind him. now, quite frankly, he needs to get into central florida. make some moves there as well as the panhandle and north florida. if you look at florida and cut it in four slices, you have south florida, central florida,

the panhandle and north florida. right now, he's pretty confident with south florida. he's working feverishly in central florida. with his win in puerto rico, he feels he has some momentum. yesterday, good news for marco rubio in terms of some of the puerto rican leaders there, they gave their support to senator rubio, and today, this morning, as a matter of fact, the venezuelan community is also behind senator rubio. good news for him today. >> patricia, you been tweeting about the rubio's early voting push in his neighborhood. realistically, does he have a shot? also, early voting including the ballot included jeb bush in there. and a lot of folks who voted for him essentially can't vote again, you can't vote twice, most of the time. does he have a shot? >> early on, rubio's campaign, while bush was in the race, and the absentee ballots had been mailed, tried to go on radio and tell people we still have contests to go. don't rush in your ballot. if you're on the fence, because maybe your candidate will be gone by the time that florida comes around.

and indeed, that's what happened. now, they have turned to trying to get the people who still ahae not returned their ballots to return them now, not to keep waiting. they don't want the risk the people voting for trump, voting for cruz. then you have the early voting in person, which is what i went to yesterday, where in the cuban american enclave, you saw a lot of rubio support, and you also saw a lot of confusion. we have staggered early voting hours in florida. some people thought, oh, we got calls from the campaign or rubio supporters. we can vote anytime. you have to make sure you're at the right time to vote. some people were there early and they left because the polls were closed. >> both of you have been covering south florida politics for years. why is it this state, our state, is always in a key point when it comes to elections? >> actually, if you look at the definition of swing states, that's florida. you never know how they're going to vote. it's like the box of chocolates reference. you open up the box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get. of course, never was it more

evident during the presidential campaign with barack obama. they voted a democrat into the white house, yet a republican governor, and two senators, a republican and a democrat. you never know where florida is going to be. >> do you think the fact rubio was able to take puerto rico will have an impact on the i-4 corridor, where so many people from the island have moved to that area in the last years? >> i'm not sure. we have seen that puerto ricans who moved to florida often don't register with either party, if they do, they tend to register more democratic than republican. and they also don't tend to turn out in higher numbers, for various reasons, but he will need those people if he's going to defeat trump in central florida and probably if he wants to take the whole state, he will need the people who are maybe like, oh, okay, we like rubio, but whether they're super excited or not, he's going to need to turn those people out. in the past, puerto ricans have

not really flexed their entire political muscle in the state. >> patricia and jackie, you have something in common. you're both university of miami freaks. you love university of miami. learning this about both of you, right? and jackie, let me say, you are the face of south florida. we're so proud of you. and what you do representing our communities on a day in and day out basis. >> i appreciate that. >> thank you both, ladies. university of miami fanatics. i shouldn't have said freaks. >> no rick james there. thank you very much. another big tuesday in presidential politics with so much ahead this hour. primaries and caucuses in four states across the nation. up next, a look at what's at stake for the democrats as hillary clinton grows her national lead. is michigan now the last stand for bernie sanders? and later, can marco rubio fight the fade and pull off a win in his home state next week? we'll be talking about that and a whole lot more on the florida

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for democrats today, it's a battle for michigan and mississippi. voting is under way. this is a live look at a polling location in flint. bernie sanders needs to have a pretty good day here if he has any chance of slowing hillary clinton's momentum. nearly 200 delegates are at stake in the democratic primaries in michigan and mississippi. nationally, hillary clinton is widening her lead over bernie sanders. in our new weekly nbc news survey monkey online poll, clinton now leads by 17 points. let's go to cleveland, where secretary clinton holds a

post-primary rally tonight. at a community college there. nbc's kristen welker is there as well. kristen, good morning. what are we hearing from the campaigns this morning? >> hey, jose. good morning. both campaigns acknowledge the stakes couldn't be higher in michigan. secretary clinton has a double-digit lead, according to most polls in that state. but both campaigns privately say they expect the race to be a lot closer. and what we're seeing is this race is heating up. senator sanders has been criticizing secretary clinton sharply for supporting past trade deals like nafta, incredibly unpopular in states like michigan. secretary clinton firing back, criticizing senator sanders for opposing the auto bailout, which is credited with saving millions of jobs in michigan and throughout the midwest. sanders has been responding on the trail and recently in a radio ad. take a listen to this ad. >> it's not surprising his opponent is out with a new radio ad trying to distort the truth about bernie's record. the "washington post" spells

things out pretty clearly. stating his opponent's campaign, quote, glosses over a lot, including the fact that sanders is actually on the record as supporting the auto bailout. he even voted for it, unquote. >> the auto bailoutline is a part of secretary clinton's closing argument. she hopes it will help her secure a win in michigan. and she is increasingly pivoting to the general election. take a look at what she had to say yesterday on the trail. it got a lot of attention. >> it's so important for all of you to turn out as many voters as you can tomorrow. because the sooner i could become your nominee, the more i can begin to turn our attention to the republicans. >> and while clinton does have momentum, she does not have this race locked up yet. mathmatically, to do that, michigan is going to be key, and

it is critical for senator sanders. he has to be able to win a state like michigan to show he can win some of these larger, more diverse states and a state like michigan has a large swath of white working class voters who should appeal to him. and a win here, by the way, would indicate that his chances are good in places like ohio and like illinois, which vote next week. so a lot riding on tonight. both campaigns watching these votes very closely, jose. >> nbc's kristen welker, thank you so very much. hillary clinton holds a rally in ohio tonight. then heads here to south florida for a debate tomorrow night. last month during the msnbc democratic town hall, i pressed her on the issue of immigration reform. listen to that. >> do you promise to deal with immigration reform within the first 100 days? >> absolutely. we're going to introduce legislation. i'm going to call everybody on the committee, democrats and republicans alike. >> within 100 days? >> yeah, i'm going to introduce my priority legislation and this

is at the top of the list. it's going to be introduced. >> lorella joins me, the director of the latino vote for the hillary clinton campaign. great seeing you. >> let's talk about the town hall, because she did finally say, yes, within 100 days, i will have immigration reform. is this something that's been a priority for the secretary, and if so, does she have concrete proposal plans to put in place if she does get to the presidency in those 100 days? >> yes, what you have heard her say is she's going to introduce legislation and build a coalition we need to get immigration reform done in the first 100 days. i was working with congress and with the coalition that pushed for immigration reformd in 2013, and it's a process. we have to build a coalition. we have to get the proposal right. that's exactly what she's talking about. and so what she has said all the way since the beginning, when you talk about her priorities, she sat down with dreamers and talked about the issues that keep them and their families up

at night. gr it took her a while to say yes, 100 days, it would be a while. it took a while. >> it's important to think about the process and the way immigration reform gets done. we don't want to be in a situation where we're promising something we can't deliver. our community has already gone through that. important to think about how do we bill the coalition the first 100 days. >> how do you do that? there have been attempted in the past, not only the one you worked on but the one before that. i have to tell you, even on both sides of the aisle, you have on one side, poison pills, on the other side, complete rejection of any kind of comprehensive immigration reform. >> well, i think you need a leader that can get it done. you also need a movement that is working to push for it. you know how important that is. you know how important florida is. you know how important the latino turnout in the primaries on march 15th here in florida, but also in november, is to getting something done. and something that is. >> for the community. right, so takes building. it takes bringing people together. she has the experience to do that. >> you know, i'm sure you saw this report in the "new york

times" citing federal figures that naturalization figures have jumped 11% over the 2015 fiscal year. because of latinos wanting apparently to vote against trump. so here's my question. how do you get latinos to vote for hillary clinton? if she's the nominee, for hillary clinton instead of against someone? >> well, they are voting for hillary clinton. 315,000 of them showed up at the polls in texas and cast a ballot in support of hillary clinton. they're doing that right now through early vote here in florida. i'm sure they're going to show up and support her on march 15th, and that's because it isn't just about immigration reform. it's about immigration reform, it is about our relationship with latin america, it is about what is happening in puerto rico with the debt crisis. it is about breaking down the barriers that are holding people back. and she has talked about a holistic approach to get that done. that's why latinos are listening. she's also not a stranger to our community. she has 40 years of fighting for our community left and right, addressing the issues that are holding latinos back. and so that's why people trust

her to get stuff done. >> lorella, thank you. great to see you. what do you think of garcia's seafood? >> i love it. i feel like i'm in peru. >> i would say the best seafood in the world. >> i would agree with you. great peruvian food in general. up next on this super tuesday, live from miami, the state to watch today is michigan, which could solidify donald trump's lead on the gop side. and looking ahead, all about florida. 99 delegates up for grabs for the republicans in a winner-take-all contest there. we'll break down the delegate math for you next. >> it always comes down to florida. it will come down to florida on the 15th. and it will come down to florida in november. welcome to opportunity's knocking, where self-proclaimed financial superstars pitch you investment opportunities. i've got a fantastic deal for you- gold! with the right pool of investors,

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extraordinarily beautiful city here. a beautiful day out here. you know, four states are up for grabs in the republican race today. hawaii, idaho, mississippi, and michigan. michigan the biggest prize today and the first big test for candidates in the rust belt region. what does donald trump need to achive today to make sure he's on track for the nomination and not inching toward a contested convention? steve kornacki is at the big board. >> good morning. let's take a look now. what you see, the current delegate count on the republican side. you need just over 1200 to win the nomination. you see trump, 87 ahead of cruz. rubio further back. that question of can donald trump get to 1237 in the primary season or will we have the open convention looms large. michigan, the biggest test on the board today on the republican side. there are 59 delegates here. one thing to keep in mind when you watch the returns come in from michigan tonight, 15%, that's the magic number. candidates have to hit 15% in the state-wide voed to get any

delegates. if you're above 15%, they start giving them out proportionately. a good night for donald trump, we have seen polls that have him ahead and polls that show kasich closing. but a good night for donald trump would be getting close to 30 delegates out of michigan. the other big state on the board tonight for the republicans, mississippi. this one has 40 delegates up for grabs. again, this isn't one where the conventional wisdom a week ago was that trump was going to win big here, when you see how close louisiana got, when you see this is sort of ted cruz's neck of the country, his neck of the woods there, if he gets closer, that could be trouble for trump. on a good night between these two states tonight, a test for trump, if it's a good nightering he's probably going to get around 50 delegates. probably pick up somewhere around 50 delegates. push that number close to 450. two other smaller states also voting tonight. that sets up the big question, march 15th. we talk about florida, the do or die test for rubio, ohio for kasich, but there are three

other big contests on the 15th as well. in north carolina, illinois, and missouri. if you're donald trump, you have a chance to really put some distance in here over the next week. if you can get close to 50 tonight, if you could pick off florida, that's 99 delegates in florida, and that's winner-take-all. win the state by one vote, win all 99. probably push rubio out at the same time. illinois is another one, 69 delegates, it's not exactly winner take all, but you get the lion's share of the delegates. those are two big opportunities on top of tonight for donald trump. and jose, really, when you look at where the delegate race stands right now, he needs to take advantage of those opportunities if he's going to get to 1237. >> absolutely. steve kornacki, good seeing you. thanks. steve was just talking about what's at stake in florida, and this tampa bay tribune headline says it all. hispanic voters along the i-4 corridor from tampa to orlando will be key for whoever wins florida. we were just talking about that

a few minutes ago. msnbc's thomas roberts is in tampa. thomas, great seeing you. you have been talking to voters. what are they saying to you? >> yeah, jose. we're on the west coast of florida over here in tampa, in hillsborough county, and i'm along the river walk. a gorgeous day. a little breezy, and we have folks running by and on their bikes. as your guest pointed out, this area with the heavy influx of residents who have left puerto rico and while we saw marco rubio win that primary on sunday, when you get to florida, it is a closed primary. so you need to be a registered republican if you are going to be voting in the primary and have interest in support of marco rubio. so there may be a connection to family members or folks back in puerto rico that talk to folks here along the irk-4 corridor that might be supporters of him. he was just here yesterday for a rally down the street at the convention center. they hadime anticipated a large crowd. sources tell us they rebooked an area to have a smaller space for the crowd that did assemble for him. while this area is pivotal for the right, and we know it's a

three-man race between cruz, trump, and rubio, it's also pivotal for the left. yesterday, we went out to george steinbrenner field. spring training happening, and it was a yankees/astros field, and we caught up with folks to check their temperature between the sun, the beer, and local politics. >> cruz is a little conservative for our taste. >> very conservative for our taste. >> bernie is the progressive candidate for us. >> you say very conservative. >> very conservative. >> she thinks he's very. >> always conservative. >> i know don't about you, but i'm anti-establishment. >> down the line. mitt romney's speech the other day totally helped trump in my opinion. if there's a brokered convention and donald trump is in the lead and doesn't come out of it as the nominee, there's going to be a blood bath. >> you think it's going to be bad. >> bad. >> to me, don't get out and insult each other. get out and state what you plan to do.

what kind of goals do you have set for when you become president? not tearing each other apart. >> so there we're hearing about more of the substance of the campaigns that have been run and what people are attracted to, and what they're not. i'll give you a warning sign here of what we're seeing locally, we haven't run into any alligators along the river walk, but we're going to be broadcasting again, our home away from home at the columbia cafe. this is the oldest restaurant in florida. founded back in 1905. still a family-owned operation. they have been fantastically generous to us. when we think of the state of florida and the delegate math. 246 delegates available for the democrats and the 99 winner-take-all for the gop, this really is marco rubio's last stand to be able to carry his home state. and if it is all about delegate denial math, this would have to be the state he carries to advance beyond march 15th. currently, donald trump is leading in the state, and we know that ted cruz is also

making an aggressive play here in florida. it's a chess game. and we'll wait to see until the 15th who exactly can carry the day. >> thomas roberts, great to see you down here in florida. do me a favor, if you get a chance, the tampa st. pete area, there's a salvador dali museum, if you get a chance, go see it. it is worth it. have you gotten a chance to go there yet? >> i will do that. i have not. but i am interested in becoming a snowbird co-anchor of yours and i can come down and be with you from november through march every year if you would like. >> i'm loving it. i always love the salvador dali said the only difference between a madman and me is i am not one. we'll see you 2:00 p.m. live from tampa here on msnbc. a live look now at polling stations in flint, michigan. one of four states holding a primary or caucus today. mississippi and michigan, the biggest races for the gop. we'll be live at voting stations

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voters are heading to primaries and caucuses in four states today. republicans are holding contests in mississippi, michigan, idaho, and hawaii. democrats have primaries in mississippi and michigan. we have reporters in the two states with the most delegates at stake. cal perry is in mississippi. tony dokoupil and joy reid are in michigan. let's start with cal at a polling station in mississippi. how are things there so far? >> good morning, jose. things are quiet. a trickle of voters. this is hines county, jackson, mississippi. you have two choices. you come in, you can vote here on the republican side. the democratic side votes down here. pretty simple voting booths. old school mississippi. the thing to remember about today in mississippi is winner

take all, if you get 51% of the vote. that's in play for hillary clinton on the democratic side, if she can do that, shale rr take the states's 41 delegates which would be huge for her, making the math very difficult for bernie sanders. on the republican side, pretty unlikely donald trump reaches that threshold. we have seen a push from ted cruz, especially on the morning airwaves. ads running all morning here on local tv. a potential huge night for hillary clinton where she could take all the delegates. with that, i shoot you over to michigan and tony dokoupil. >> thanks, cal. i'm here at motte community college. beautiful school here in flint, michigan. the biggest polling center anywhere in flint. seven precincts here. michigan is not used to being such an important primary state. you have to stop right here at the door. i can't go in, can't talk to the voters personally. this is a heavily hit area by the lead crisis. but it's jobs and manufacturing. jobs and manufacturing.

and believe it or not, although every candidate is competing very hard to be the defender of american worker, it's hillary clinton who seems to be the clear favorite. there's one anecdote that tells the story. yesterday, i was in buick city, a former gm complex in flint. 28,000 workers used to work there. 1999, it was shut down, completely closed. there's a union there, i talked to gene ridley, he only has 400 members down from 28,000. he blames nafta for that decline. that's a bill clinton era trade agreement. in this election when she walks through the doors just like this, he's supporting hillary clinton. it takes a politician to win again other politicians. that's the picture here. joy reid is in dearborn. what's it like there, joy? >> all right, tony. thank you very much. we are here at hey elementary skro school, and in the city of dearborn. at the gym is in session today, but they won't be having gym because we're here voting. this is wayne county, michigan,

the 40th precinct on this side. barack obama won the 40th precinct in 2012, and if you swing to the other side, this is the 41st precinct that votes on this side. mitt romney in 2012 took that side. we're on the west side of dearborn. everybody knows dearborn is the city with the largest arab american population in the united states. that's really the east side. there's a dividing line of a freeway. this side is different, varieties of immigrant communities mainly from europe. it's a very balanced sort of city. to give you a sense of the people we have spoken to, a lot of focus on economy, economy and jobs. also education. even though we're not in detroit, we talked to voters concern about detroit schools and the flint water crisis. those are some of the issues people are talking about. in local media, lots and lots and lots of ads running for hillary clinton. bernie sanders, we have seen some anti-trump ads on local news here. but a lot of people, i think, waiting to see if the issue of the bailout winds up being

decisive in the michigan primary. can might. hillary clinton, of course, leading in the michigan polls. back to you. >> joy reid, donee dokoupil, and cal perry thank you for being with me. now let's take a deeper dive into today's michigan primary. i want to check in with detroit free press reporter todd spangler. how are you? >> great. thanks for having me. >> joy reid was talking about this. hillary clinton and bernie sanders have been sparring over the auto bailout. take a listen to some of that. >> when the chips were down and the vote was called, i voted for the auto bailout. he voted against it. because it also helped some other groups like the banks. but you know, sometimes you don't get perfect choices in life or politics. and so i voted to get that money flowing, to save those auto jobs. >> that is absolutely false. there was one vote in the united states senate. happened to be on december 11th, 2008. and of course, i voted to defend

the automobile industry. >> how is this all playing out in michigan? >> well, it's potentially a pretty effective attack from secretary of state clinton. while it's true that senator sanders did vote for the auto bailout in december of 2008, there was a later vote that had to do with t.a.r.p. funding in general, and part of that was the auto bailout. he did vote against that. it could be an effective attack. it's really going to come down to turnout here in michigan. >> yeah, and the question of turnout is, if people believe one side or the other, because they're both saying they supported, and yet, you know, there are differences in exactly when and what that support included. >> that's true. i don't necessarily think that the debate over the auto bailout and senator sanders' support for it or nonsupport for it is going to affect his supporters that much. what's really going to matter

here is whether or not the younger voters who he's been trying to talk directly to here in michigan actually do turn out and whether or not he can tamp down turnout among particularly the african-american community, which we expect to be very much in secretary of state clinton's back. >> and talk about this water crisis in flint. how has that factored into the democratic primary? >> well, both clinton and sanders have been really struggling for the votes, really going after those votes in flint as a way to try to get through to african-american voters across the state and democrats who have really been using it to bash the republican governor here, rick snyder. really what this is going to end up being is whether or not clinton's early support coming out, talking to flint mayor karen weaver, is really going to end ummaking the difference. some people think it might. >> todd spangler, thank you very much for being with me. i appreciate your time. >> thank you. from a model growing up in communist yugoslavia to perhaps

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president. >> grew up here in then communist yugoslavia, studying in this classroom with a friend who is now school dean. she was a shy little girl, she says. calm and kind. she was friendly to everyone. but melania had big plans. >> she dreamt about being model all the time. >> her father was a salesman. her mom worked in fashion. and this is melania, age 7, on the catwalk. later, she was spotted by a photographer. i saw her very beautiful eyes, and those cheekbones. melania's first photo shoot in this studio. his favorite photo of her. she told msnbc what happened next. >> i moved to milan and paris to live there. and i had successful modeling career. >> she moved to new york, meeting donald trump at a party. she liked his sparkle, marrying trump more than 20 years her senior. later appearing on celebrity

apprentice. >> melania would like to add another 20,000 to winning team. >> melania, now a candidate's wife. >> she said right from the beginning, you know if you run, you know you're going to win. and she said that from day one. so melania, thank you. thank you. >> now, on the world stage, melania has had an incredible journ journey. friends from back home admiring her progress from a world away. >> in public, she's very calm. very graceful. nice. and it's good. it looks like she's happy. >> keir simmons, nbc news, london. ♪ (cell phone rings) where are you? well the squirrels are back in the attic. mom? your dad won't call an exterminator... can i call you back, mom? he says it's personal this time... if you're a mom, you call at the worst time.

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luis garcia is the owner of garcia's seafood on the river. a family-owned business. thank you for having us in. how did the business start? >> my parents were exiled out of

cuba and came to this country. this country opened their arms to my family. my father started right across the street. i get emotional when i talk about it. but this is the american dream, and i'm living it. so now that the political thing is happening, we're excited and fascinated by it. we're looking for the right candidate. who represents the small businesses and family values. >> luis, thank you, buddy. thanks so much for having us. that wraps up this hour of msnbc live from the city of miami river. thank you for the privilege of your time. i'll be back tomorrow, 10:00 a.m. eastern time. tamron hall is up next from garcia seafood grille. if you come to south florida and don't visit this place, you havent visited south florida.

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