connected with the white working class. >> it would make as much sense as anything else this election season. we're ten seconds away from the top of the hour. you know the speak about any projection before we arrive there, but now it is 11:00 on the east coast, and we can give the following projection from idaho. too early to call in a race we are characterizing, as you see, with trump on the left, 0% of the vote in, and ted cruz on the right. graphics happen for a reason. >> there is only going to be a republican race in idaho tonight. there is no democratic race in idaho until march 22nd. in idaho, it should be noted that less than one in ten registered voters statewide is a democrat. it is a state that is very, very, very red. it's interesting, though, the governor of idaho, whose name is butch otter, and who chuck todd says once won a tight jeans

contest -- butch otter has made an endorsement in idaho, endorsing john kasich, as did the "idaho statesman" newspaper, which is a dominant outlet in the state. rubio has an endorsement from the senator, and then raul labrador who is influential with conservatives. so, there has been campaigning in idaho. rubio's been there three times. cruz and kasich have each been there. trump is the only one who hasn't been there, but it's going to be an interesting race with 32 delegates at stake here. anybody who gets 20% of the vote or more in idaho tonight will qualify for a share of those delegates. >> and if we pan to the left geographically, if not literally, there is the story we're following at this hour. the democratic primary in michigan too close to call, 34,580 with 86% of the vote in. michigan happens to be where chris matthews is tonight. chris?

>> well, brian, i think that we're seeing tonight, someone just mentioned the parallel voting pattern here, both for bernie sanders on the democratic side and donald trump on the republican side. both running on the antitrade issue in a state that very much feels affected by bad trade laws. the motor industry was the first one really hit, actually, probably second after the textile industry was blown away in south carolina. it went from -- of course, we all know the history of the trade stories. new england made shoes and textil textiles, they went south because of the labor unions not being down south and then the moving out of the country altogether. i think the auto industry was the most important industry in the country for us. what is it? as goes general motors, so goes america, so goes the country. and i think there was a strong feeling that we needed to protect our auto industry. and of course, people out there don't feel -- out here don't feel they've been protected. it's interesting, though, and rachel's mentioned this -- where does the reagan democrat go? well, if you're a democrat, it's

not so hard to vote for a democrat if that person seems to be responding to what you're concerned about, in this case, the loss of industrial jobs, the hollowing out of american manufacturing in this country, and who do you blame? you've got to blame policy, not just history. so, on the republican side, trump appeals to the same -- except he says it differently. he talks about economic nationalism and gives it more of a nationalistic flair, but obviously, both people, both the democrat who's a working guy and the republican voter both feel the same stress out here. and i think, it's interesting. bernie and donald trump would carry the same state. it's just going to send a big message all through next week. brian? >> chris matthews, thank you. chris matthews in detroit for us tonight. and we are still keeping an eye on the results in from michigan, where it is too close to call. a large proportion of the vote is in, and the margin between clinton and sanders is pretty

chunky at this point. looks like there's about 34,000 votes between them. but chuck todd explaining earlier why it may be that this race is not being called. steve kornacki has a closer look at what vote we've got and what vote we don't have. >> also a detail from the exit poll that might be interesting, given that we have been talking so much about wayne county, detroit in that area. right now about a 35,000-vote lead statewide for bernie sanders. looking at wayne county, about two-thirds of the vote in, still 25,000 for hillary clinton, the lead there. now, what we've been saying is that the expectation is that as more vote comes in, this hillary clinton lead and this margin is going to expand significantly, and that's why she's still in this fight statewide. there is a detail from the exit poll, however, and take this with a grain of salt, because when you do the exit polls and start breaking down the regions of every state, the numbers can sometimes be all over the place. however, in the exit poll tonight, they surveyed wayne county only, wayne county, which we're looking at and saying this thing is coming down to, and

they found in the exit poll a margin in wayne county for hillary clinton of 56% to 40%. that's what the exit poll said. and we're looking at with two-thirds of the vote in in wayne county is hillary clinton 57%, bernie sanders 41%. so, if that is actually what it is, and that's a big if, because with the exit polls, when you break them down regionally, you can get funny numbers sometimes, but if that is legit, if that's the margin you'll see in wayne county, she is not going to get the kind of margin in wayne county with the rest of the votes that are left to overtake bernie sanders statewide. >> steve kornacki, thank you. chuck todd, talking about the specific results from wayne county, is that how you understand it, that she has to have a big enough margin there to explain the rest of the state? >> that's right. and again, it goes back, maybe there's still some vote in flint that -- because the flint numbers are not nearly as wide in genesee as the clinton campaign expected, so that leads them to believe there's some flint out. but i've been talking to various

boiler rooms, the frustration, not just our boiler rooms and the other networks', but the campaigns' the way michigan is dumping this vote, it's not by precinct, so it's very hard. >> what do you mean -- >> for our viewers -- >> when i say dumping the vote, it's like okay -- >> what do you mean like that? >> here's just more raw totals out of macomb, or it's not telling you where in macomb it's coming from. it's not telling you it's coming from perhaps this precinct, which is a wealthier precinct, where you can match it up with our exit poll. we have sample precincts. the way our boiler rooms work, we have sample precincts that we want to wait from, but if you get a vote dump and the county just says here you go, we've got 60% of the vote we've counted and it's 57%-41% clinton, but we can't match it up with our sample precincts that we know is a precinct that we would use to help model it out and project -- >> so, you can't say underperforming versus overperforming. >> correct. so, we don't have that. it's not just us.

it's why the campaigns, none of them are declaring victory or defeat, because they don't know any more than we do. >> even with over 80% of the vote in, it doesn't matter if you don't know -- >> or 90%. we're now at 90%. i notice a big chunk must have come in for clinton with the margin back under 25. >> even bernie sanders standing in front of that festive wall did not make -- >> remember '08? we're going to have these nights. i remember in indiana waiting for gary. you know, waiting for gary, indiana, and all this, and we were doing that. >> i was going to say, who's gary? lawrence, we keep talking about the excitement gap. you know, even a democratic member of congress tonight talked about the excitement gap between the two parties. this, however, starts feeling like a little bit more excitement on the ground. >> this is what you'd call an exciting turnout for democrats. >> yeah. >> and the fact that, as chuck's reporting now, it's the first real democratic primary there since 1992. that means it's the first one since nafta. and you know, the two democratic --

>> good point. great point. >> -- the two democratic senators who vote against nafta split on this, one went with hillary clinton and one went with bernie sanders. there may be states, like i think california coming up, and others where the most important vote in the candidates' past is the iraq war vote. in michigan, don regal, the former senator, insisted to me last night that nafta remains the most important vote that you can have on your record going into that state. hillary clinton didn't vote on it. and to tell you the truth, she didn't lift a finger to get nafta passed as first lady, not a finger. >> but she owns it with her name. >> in fact, all she cared about, quite understandably, is get that thing out of the way of my health care bill, because that goes through the same committees. but she carries the burden of nafta, as does bill clinton in michigan, which is why bill clinton couldn't be used in michigan the way he could -- >> by the way, look at places where it looks like the michigan

electorate, the ocohio democrat electorate. wisconsin is a state where we've seen polling that that's very close already. >> and that's a primary where it's stand alone. >> that's right. >> no one else is voting the night wisconsin is voting. >> at a minimum, we know the clinton spin, they're going to win in delegates tonight because that's a fact, there's no doubt about it. but we are seeing her weaknesses are where donald trump will have strengths, okay? >> exactly, yeah. >> with this same group of voters that bernie sanders is appealing to. those folks -- i mean, this is why she ought to -- when she goes into the general election, she will be thankful bernie sanders is still there, because learning how to win over a sanders supporter is going to help her face off trump, and i think it's going to mean she is going to have to worry about it for her running mate. i put sherrod brown now front of the list, front of the line as a potential running mate for her, because she's going to need somebody that appeals to the sanders/warren wing of the party. >> again, on behalf of our viewers, explain who sherrod brown is. >> sherrod brown, you talked

about senators against nafta. he was a member of congress back then, but he's an ohio now democratic senator -- i believe now a senior democratic -- and here's a guy who you would look at his voting record on paper, say he's too liberal to win in ohio, but he is a connector. he just knows how to connect to folks. he's got that gravelly voice, you know. >> republicans looked at him on paper, thought he was super vulnerable, threw everything they had at him and he skated. he's a very effective guy. >> very good campaigner. by the way, she has not been as an effective a campaigner on the stump. she's going to need somebody who also is going to be tough against trump, and he's got a -- you know, there's a gruff toughness to him that speaks, that is why he's done well with voters who may think he's a little too liberal, but he's my -- >> my kind of guy. >> he looks like us from ohio, he drinks -- >> she may need that kind of

guy, because if she's going to be weak in the rust belt, that's very, very bad drk. >> somebody described him as a younger version of joe biden who might make a few fewer campaign mistakes. >> i don't think she needs a guy. i think the best person she can possibly choose is elizabeth warren, who remains the most exciting, non presidential candidate in that party. when you see elizabeth warren take a stage with a democratic audience, there's nothing quite like it, and elizabeth warren has all of bernie sanders' credentials. you have a complete transfer of bernie sanders' allegiance to elizabeth warren on minute one, if that's the way this turns out. >> i think the secret divining rod -- not divining rod -- the secret dividing line between the two arguments leans towards sherrod brown, because brown's wife, connie schultz, is as effective a campaigner and political persona as anybody else in the democratic party and has never been an elected official.

she's a pulitzer prize-winning columnist. we know they're always great. but she is an absolute equal in terms of a public persona to her husband, to sherrod brown. and if she didn't want to pick a woman for her running mate, i think the connie schultz factor in sherrod brown actually would make a big deal, and they're both going to hate me for saying that. >> i was just going to say it, hate mail from the brown household. >> yes. >> i have an e-mail from connie, i'm sure, right now. saying tell rachel to shut up. >> that's how bad that was, yeah. >> while that comes in, we'll take a break. we'll be back right after this with more on michigan.

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who has the lowest. go to compare.com, plug in some simple info and get up to 50 free quotes. choose the lowest, and hit purchase. it's fast and easy. compare.com saving humanity from high insurance rates. well, you never know going into these election nights what's going to be the story, which state's going to be the barn-burner on these multiple-state tuesdays, and this is it for tonight, so far. who knows, hawaii could be a cliffhanger. too close to call in michigan. sanders over clinton. 92% of the known, raw vote in, 26,000 separating them. steve kornacki is crunching the other known numbers. >> let's take a look here, what is still left to come. you look at these numbers, where are the votes still outstanding? basically, we said half the vote is in these three counties,

macomb county, home of the reagan democrats, white working class. it's basically all in right now. oakland county, suburban, higher-income, college-educated, that is basically all in right now. so, this is the main outstanding one, wayne county. we've been talking about it all night. that's a hillary clinton county. the question is how much? also, genesee. that's where flint is, still about half out right there. and from bernie sanders' standpoint, where grand rapids is, there's still a lot of vote to come there. sanders is doing very well there. and we can just show you very quickly, where does the counting stand right now in wayne county? a 34,000-vote lead for hillary clinton, 75% of the vote is in. if you extrapolate that -- that's a big if, but if you extrapolate that and she wins the rest of the county at the same rate she's winning it now, she will net an additional 7,000 votes out of wayne county. she is losing statewide right now by just under 30,000 votes, so that's if you netted -- if you keep going at the current rate. so, he needs probably a bigger margin as that vote comes in.

>> steve kornacki, thank you. the michigan race right now, again, 92% of the vote in, 50%-48% with bernie sanders in the lead. this is still considered too close to call. in michigan for us tonight, the great chris matthews. chris? >> thank you, rachel. i'm bringing in rhonda romney mcdaniel, the republican chair of the whole state of michigan. your uncle's very much involved in this stop trump movement, right? >> yes. >> is that fair to say that that's what he wants to do? >> yeah, i think that's fair to say after the speech he gave last week. >> do you think he wants to be president? >> no, i don't think that's it. i think he is concerned for our country. i think, like he said, he just felt like he couldn't live with himself if he didn't come out and try to do something. >> for years, the republican party of michigan has been ad moderate party, george romney back in the '60s. it's always been sort of a establishment republican party. today donald trump won out here. what happened? >> well, i've seen donald trump in the state for the past year. the crowds have been enormous.

i will not say that it's always a traditional republican crowd. i've seen him in birch run with 3,000 people there. there were a lot of macomb reagan democrats there. and i think that's something we've seen across the state. in grand rapids, he had big crowds. i am not surprised to see him do well in michigan, based on the enthusiasm i've seen for him around the state. >> if he gets to the republican convention in cleveland as a party chair out here, will you support him? >> i'm going to support who the voters choose. >> will you support trump? >> yeah, if he's our nominee, i'm going to support trump. the voters choose. that's the beauty of democracy. >> the topic we talk about all the time on our program is can any political party after 60 years of letting the voters nominate decide at convention to give somebody else who didn't win first? ? >> it's happened in the past. >> when? >> well, we've had brokered conventioned -- >> i'm trying to remember. when is the last time someone

went in with most of the delegates and weren't nominated? >> i don't know, but if you don't go in with a 1,237, the rules are -- >> can you imagine nominating somebody who comes in second in the primaries? >> getting the nomination? it's up to the delegates at that point. there is a threshold. the candidates all knew that going in. they all knew the 1,237. that was in place before they even were on the map. so, when we go to cleveland, if someone hasn't reached that threshold, then it becomes a nominating convention. i think it will take a lot of work. they will have to unite the party, it will be difficult, but that's the progression, those are the rules. we're not going to change the rules. >> do you believe donald trump will continue to be a republican if he doesn't get the nomination having won most of the primary delegates? >> yeah, i think he will. he's committed to that. >> after the convention? >> well, he's committed to staying with the party. >> really? >> yeah, i do. i'm an optimist. >> were you surprised the other day that michael bloomberg announced he wasn't going to run third party? because everyone thought that was going to help the republicans. >> yeah, i'm not surprised.

it seems as though hillary clinton -- although tonight's changing the story -- but it seemed at that point that hillary clinton was on her way to securing the nomination, mainly because of the superdelegates, which isn't discussed as much, but she has a commanding lead with superdelegates, the party insiders, the establishment of the democratic party that aren't bound by the voters. and i think that favors her. >> okay. as a loyal niece -- >> yes. >> -- can you say that your uncle, mitt, should he be at the republican convention in cleveland this summer? and they're looking for someone to replace trump because he hasn't gotten the requisite number of votes. would he be available or not available? >> he said he's not interested in running and he doesn't foresee that happening. >> do you think he will? >> you're going to have to ask mitt that. i love my uncle mitt. i wish he were president now. >> well, you wish he was president. do you want him to run for president? >> i wish he were president right now. i'm pleased with our field. they've worked really hard. let's see what happens. there's a long way to go, march 15th. >> i think i can read your hope.

thank you, ronna romney mcdaniel. back to you guys. >> chris, thank you. we want to bring someone back we talked to earlier in the evening. i made him swear he would come back on television and report what he could. robert costa is national political reporter with the "washington post." robert, we already have a lead story -- donald trump just added two states to this incredible campaign season, and we're neck and neck in michigan for the democrats. what can you add? >> i think there's a secondary story talking to top republicans tonight, major donors within the party. there's a lot of anxiety about senator rubio's performance, and there's also some real analysis of trump's news conference, a sense that he is making an overture to them, to the party establishment, talking about his conversation with speaker ryan, acting not so much as a nominee, but as a uniter. they think those two factors, rubio's poor showing and trump's willingness to move closer to

the party tonight. >> about mr. trump's press conference, i'm wondering if there's been any negative reaction among republicans you've been talking to to the other aspect of mr. trump's press conference tonight, in addition to uniting the party and saying nice things about the republican party needing to hold on to the house and senate, name-dropping paul ryan. in addition to that, he did the long-form qvc thing, where he rolled out and touted and actual actually hocked all of the trump-branded products, even to set he had set up to look like he was doing a presidential press conference inside the white house somewhere. any reaction to those optics and the presidentialness factor among republicans tonight? >> widespread negative reaction among the establishment, who view it as a surreal distraction, a sense that trump, even when he tries to act presidential and move toward the party, still has to tout his brand. but there's an understanding now months after watching trump within the top ranks of the

republican party that when trump speaks about his brand, he's really speaking about his candidacy, and that's why he has a passionate defense of his brand and his companies, because he believes his success in business, his career is really intertwined with what he's trying to offer the voters. >> robert, nicolle wallace, who because of travel could not be part of our coverage tonight, has openly talked about and embraced her steps on route to accepting donald trump, and it sounds like while no two people are on the same timed path, what you're describing are people getting there in their own way. >> it's a very difficult time for the establishment, brian. i just flew back from park city, utah, where top republican donors were meeting with some top republican governors. you had a retreat of the american enterprise institute in seattle and georgia over the weekend, and both of these conclaves, there was a sense that these ads are not really working against trump, going after his companies, going after his ideology. no one's really sure at this point if this never trump

movement can be effective in toppling the front-runner. >> yeah, the latest attack ad got quite wide air play via free media today, networks like this one, he utters the now-famous sound bite, "i have the best words," and then it has a series of him using some choice four-letter words and getting bleeped out. it's the one he praised from the podium tonight. >> trump -- i spoke to trump associates this evening, and they believe when they look at the map, he's winning in the rust belt, winning in michigan, winning in the deep south, and they think they can run an outsider campaign that is very unconventional, but as long as it stays different, if it's not the same when it comes to foreign policy, it's not hawkish, if it's different on trade, more bold on illegal immigration, then they can remain the front-runner, be separate from the party that has really lost its own popularity with the base. >> robert costa, our friend from the "washington post," thank you very much for being part of our coverage tonight once again.

another break for us. when we come back, we will continue to drill down on this michigan race, getting closer, getting more interesting as the hours go on.

it just gets more and more interesting. first of all, on the right, we should explain, too early to call. idaho gop-gop only primary, 10% in, ted cruz ahead of donald trump. 10% of the vote, 32 delegates at stake. it's that story on the left that is genuinely close and genuinely gets more interesting as the hours go on. michigan democratic primary. we've been locked at 92% in, yet the vote continues to move, somehow. let's go to steve kornacki with an explanation. >> yeah, well, something just happened. what we're seeing here is the votes come in in spurts. these counties will put big chunks of them up here. that statewide difference will change. a minute ago while in commercial, the race had tightened. it was down to about 17,000 statewide, because a big chunk came in from wayne county, detroit, that area we've been talking about. but we also all night have been

saying there are some other areas out, one of them kent county, grand rapids. bernie sanders doing well there. it's not been out all night. we'll take a look. it just came in. and see this? bernie sanders now a 16,000-vote margin there, so most of that, i think close to 90% now in from grand rapids, in that area. that affected the statewide total. it had helped bring bernie sanders -- now we've just had more vote come in while i've been here. let's take a look at wayne. we've been saying all night this sort of the be all and end all, and there you go, hillary clinton up now -- that's a 53,000-vote lead in wayne. unfortunately, i don't have the percentages up there, so i don't know exactly how much that is, but a 53,000-vote lead in wayne and statewide. that's got her 22,000 behind right now. so, again, they're sort of trading off right here. but that big area, grand rapids, we've been saying all night, wait for that to come in, sanders people have been waiting for it. it's come in and helped him. we have wayne still out standing. one more i'm going to check on,

flint. that has nothing in the last few minutes. >> okay, so, chuck todd, while -- i mean -- >> yes. >> while we're talking, the numbers are moving, yet not, help us out. >> and sanders people are like, why don't you just call this? the big conspiracy to stop. there's no conspiracy, folks. the only reason we're not calling this is because we don't know -- i go back to what the counties are doing. they're dumping vote totals, but we don't know from what precincts. the way our boiler room works and every boiler room works is you have sample precincts that you want to know that give you the correct demographic makeup of a particular county. if we don't have it, we can't match up vote totals, so we don't know what is out in wayne county. is it going to be a part of wayne county that is a good area for bernie sanders or is it a part of wayne county that's going to be good for hillary clinton? and because we can't do that, that's the hesitation to call that because there's still technically enough vote. that said, hillary clinton's running out of vote. that's all i'm going to say, hillary clinton's running out of

vote to catch up. >> something we don't say often enough that people may not know -- our decision desk. as with all major news organizations, it tries to work in a vacuum. so, they're not surrounded by other calls that other news organizations are making. >> correct. >> they use human intelligence, they use computer models. at the end of the day, you try to hire good people who know elections. >> not only that, we do put them in a bubble. they don't talk to other networks. the only communication -- we do work very closely with the "associated press," who in many ways serves as the stringers in the particular counties and all that stuff. >> yeah, they're often the first line of defense. >> they're the first line, and that is something that all of the networks work with, but we're not in do hoots with all the other networks. we don't talk -- it is sort of in a bubble. they have no tvs on. >> right. >> they're not being influenced by anything that steve is saying or i'm saying or you're saying or whatever. we do try to dheep in a clean way. they don't talk to the campaigns. they literally are dealing with election officials, the "associated press" and our friends at edison who, of course, do the consortium of the

exit poll. >> do they get any of the hot dogs that you have brought to the anchor desk? >> i can't believe you told that story! >> that's what now -- now -- >> look at our good luck. look at our good luck. we have a projection. >> there it is. >> must not talk about hot dogs. >> bernie sanders is the projected winner -- >> wow. >> -- of the michigan democratic primary. as we are talking about the method of our election desk, we had no warning that during the course of that conversation, they decided to project. so, we have a call. as rachel pointed out earlier, 147 proportionally distributed delegates out of michigan. wait until we get into winner take all prime reaches. now, those are exciting. >> we do know the end of the story tonight, though, in the democratic race, because there are two outstanding races, one too early to call, one in which polls have not yet closed. those are both on the republican side. idaho's primary and hawaii's

caucus. these are the only two contests tonight on the democratic side. >> this is it. >> michigan and mississippi. mississippi we got basically an instant call. we know that will be a very large margin for hillary clinton right now with 95% of the vote in in mississippi. she's winning 83%-16%, so that will be just an absolutely huge margin. what's important there, though, is that bernie sanders is above 15% in mississippi, so that means he won't get blanked in delegates, but he will not get very many. hillary clinton will get the vast majority in this very tight race in michigan, which took us 2 1/2 hours after poll closing time, 3 1/2 hours after we got our first data out of michigan, before we were finally able to make a call. this will go down as effectively, obviously, a sanders win, but effectively, a split in terms of the delegates here. so, they're going to split them in michigan. she's going to win the vast majority in mississippi. she's going to have the better night overall, but in terms of momentum and bragging rights and what sanders wants to be able to make as his case for the way

this campaign is going to unfold and why he's still in it to win it, michigan, that win is going to be important. >> well, and rachel, don't forget, the clinton campaign, they had designs on being able to essentially declare the nomination over tonight. >> yes, they wanted -- >> they wanted to start turning the corner, and they were making michigan victory to say, hey, if you can't beat us in michigan with your message, bernie sanders, you're not going to beat us anywhere else. and honestly, that's a fair rationale, but guess what? >> he did. >> bernie sanders won. and you know what, the two victories highlight their weaknesses. bernie sanders struggles with african-americans, connecting with african-americans, particularly in the south, and that is going to -- you know, if she ends up the nominee, that will be why we will talk about that. but her weakness is with these voters who feel as if they've been left behind in this economy. >> yeah, and it is because she's answering for clintonomics? >> because she's answering for the establishment. she's answering for the sort of mainstream -- look, the democratic party has been split

on trade for a long time, and the clinton brand, and frankly, obama, too, which she has tied herself to, is on the minority within the democratic party. >> donald trump tonight made an explicit case that he can take those votes, that he can win -- he can put those states in play -- >> he said he can win michigan in the general election. >> and that's why i think that, you know, the combination of the sanders victory in michigan and the trump victory in michigan, that's potentially really important, and it's something -- >> a flashing yellow light. >> exactly. >> i won't say red, but it's yellow. >> a flashing yellow light. >> on the flashing yellow light, let's go down to -- well, let's get over to detroit, chris matthews. chris, how does it feel now that we have a declared winner? >> well, you know, you've seen a pattern among the dramatic senators now for decades, all the way from bobby casey to sherrod brown, debbie stabenow, all very strong antitraders. they don't like the trade deals we have made. the unions who are behind all these democrats are very much

against them. this is sort of the first big test of a big, industrial state, and i think we can see a pattern, perhaps, continuing. so, bernie sanders looks like he's back in the action now, because if he can win here even narrowly, he can contest pennsylvania, ohio next week, and that's, of course, winner take all. actually, it's not winner take all for the democrats. but he's able to go into these industrial states with strong labor movements and be on the side of labor, which has been fighting this thing. we have richard trumka coming on this week, saying can i come on monday night? so, trumka will come out talking about trade issues. bernie has got the hot issue here, and that is trade. >> chris -- >> chosen to agree with him on every element of his positions on this, and her problem is just, she's saying exactly the same thing. she's saying it's second. and there seems to be some price being paid for that. >> well, it's not just second, though. i mean, look what she said about tpp as secretary of state -- >> she's against it, she's against it. >> but i think it comes down to

a credibility argument. you know bernie sanders has been against it for a long time. i think the problem she has is some of these voters aren't fully convinced that when she gets in there -- look what happened between obama and clinton, when obama came out against nafta, and remember austin ghoulby said don't worry, canada -- >> he was never against it. clinton and obama each said they would open it up -- they're going to open it up, take a look -- >> but i don't think -- that's the problem, right? that's the leap with these sanders voters, they don't believe her moves yet to the left. she has to make that more -- >> and they've got history behind them, because what we've seen in trade is there is a democratic party position, there is a republican party position, and there is a presidential position. nafta was negotiated by the bush administration. it was then enacted by the clinton administration -- >> didn't clinton run against it at one time in '92, sort of? >> at the very end, he said i'm for it, but i want to add a lot of things to protect labor and the environment, and then there

were things written on some side letters to cover that. but presidents have been completely consistent on trade, no matter what party they come from. they all take exactly the same position when they become president. i think bernie sanders would guarantee a snap in that particular perfect line of. >> by the way, so would donald trump. i mean, that's what's here -- >> well, i don't know what he's saying. he's not saying he would -- >> on this issue he's been consistent -- >> he's incoherent. he is an incoherent ignorance on this issue. can't make any sense of it. >> speaking of free trade, allow me to go to a break. the story of this half hour came exactly at 11:35 eastern time as colbert and kimmel and fallon were going on the air, local news was going off on the east coast. we got word from michigan, we have a projection. bernie sanders for the democrats, hillary clinton picked up mississippi earlier in the evening. our coverage continues on the other side. man 1: [ gasps ]

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idaho -- gop only, gop primary, too early to call with a quarter of the vote in. ted cruz 31-39 over trump. and let's not forget, we have hawaii for the real insomniacs later tonight. kasie hunt covers the sanders campaign for us, and i'm hoping kasie can explain a visual of an hour ago when bernie sanders was on his way into an event, and i'm presuming it was press inquiries that caused him to stop and give a short statement. what else has he done tonight, kasie? >> reporter: hey, brian. well, for those of you who have covered campaigns before, you will recognize the scene behind me, which is the sanders campaign at the hotel bar watching cable networks and cheering because michigan was just called for him. i had the chance to speak with bernie sanders about what had gone on in michigan right before that call was made. take a listen what he had to

say, keeping in mind this happened before we officially knew this projection, that he had won michigan. >> i want to thank the people of michigan. it is a fantastic night. the polls had us down by 20, 25 points a week ago, and it looks like we'll either win or it will be very, very close tonight. and i think the issues that we focused on are the issues that are a concern for the working families of michigan, and that is the fact that ordinary people in michigan and around this country are working longer hours at lower wages, and they're tired of seeing all of the income and wealth on the top 1%. if there is anybody in this country who knows how disastrous these trade agreements have been, nafta and permanent normal trade relations with china, it is the people of michigan, where they have lost tens and tens of thousands of jobs as companies shut down in america and went to mexico and went to china. so, tonight, i think the people of michigan stood up to the

pundits, they stood up to the establishment, they stood up to the pollsters, and they said that they want an economy that works for all of us, and not just the people on top. thank you very much. >> should the senate vote on money for flint? >> of course. flint is a disaster, and if the local government doesn't have the resources, if the state government doesn't have the willingness, the federal government has got to come in. we will not continue to see children in america being poisoned. thank you very much. >> thank you. >> reporter: brian, this win in michigan for bernie sanders really changes the narrative pretty significantly for him, although he's still saying the same thing he's always said, which is that he's going to take this all the way to the convention, but it gives them more hope for march 15th states -- illinois, ohio, and they're already talking about the new york primary, which isn't until april. so, a pretty long slog ahead with a lot of money from a lot of these small donors, brian. >> and yeah, we are talking about a well-financed campaign, and there is campaign veteran

ted van dyken enjoying a beverage behind you, kasie hunt, from the bar. thank you so much. >> i was just going to say, i'm so glad that she said if you have covered a campaign, you will know what this is. i was thinking god, every time i've been on a campaign, that's what happens at this time of night. one of the things that's going to be interesting to watch here, obviously, this michigan win is a very, very big win for bernie sanders. it would have been a big lost if he lost, but it's a bigger win because he won it there, especially giving the polling going into it, and there's all sorts of reasons why the polling might have been wrong. all the polling said hillary clinton was going to win. but with bernie sanders winning here, especially given the states that are going to be voting one week from tonight, which is a much bigger delegate hall and states that are going to have a big impact in terms of the overall delegate count, it will be interesting to see if this michigan victory for bernie sanders translates into another megabomb of fund-raising. when he has had big, high-profile nights on the campaign trail thus far, his network of supporters, millions

of supporters nationwide, has responded like they have to no other candidate in the country in terms of massive amounts of money contributed through small-dollar donations. and the important thing about that for him and his sustainability is because people are not maxing out and giving him $2,700. people are giving him 20, 30, 40 bucks at a time. he can keep going back and tapping them over and over and over again to give that same size donation again and keep churning out these huge numbers. >> we are going to take a break. we will continue. when we come back, we'll talk to chris matthews, among others.

we are back. the democrats split the states tonight. hillary clinton continues her domination of southern states. and in the past hour, we just saw a projection of michigan for bernie sanders. kristen welker covering the traveling clinton campaign in cleveland, ohio, tonight.

kristen, that's just the way it's going to have to be. and while chuck todd and others were saying her goal was to turn the corner tonight in a speech with two victories under her belt, it was not to be. >> reporter: it was not to be. this is a major upset, brian, there's no doubt about that. the clinton campaign tonight stressing the reality that she is still far out ahead in the delegate count in the math, if you will, but tonight, senator sanders has the momentum, and he's going to wake up tomorrow with the momentum. that is significant. this very much destroys this narrative that he's not competitive in these larger, more diverse states. it also robs secretary clinton the chance of really firmly saying that she is the dominant front-runner and really running away with this race. so, i think tomorrow this race is going to look more competitive. secretary clinton aggressively campaigned in the state of michigan, and she came out with that sort of 11th-hour argument against senator sanders, slamming him for opposing the auto bailout.

they thought that would gain traction in a state like michigan. it did resonate with some voters but clearly not enough. so, now the focus shifts to ohio, where i am right now, and to illinois as well. these states will vote next week. and i think that it underscores that these states will likely be more competitive than initially anticipated. secretary clinton has increasingly been pivoting to the general election, talking about donald trump in her comments, the entire republican field. her campaign officials have been privately saying that they're eager to pivot to the general election. they want to start with their strategy for the general election, but this primary race has just gotten a whole lot more competitive tonight, so that is going to have to wait. and as you and kasie were talking about earlier, senator sanders certainly has enough money in his war chest to have this race go on indefinitely. brian? >> kristen welker in cleveland, ohio, with the clinton campaign. thanks. you've been following a story that stretches from idaho, the location of our next -- one of our remaining contests -- to

washington tonight. >> that's right. there was the very scary sidebar story to the idaho primary, which is that on saturday, ted cruz flew into idaho and did an event, a campaign event but it had an invocation by a local pastor. the day after that event, the pastor was ambushed and shot multiple times in the parking lot of his church, including shot in the head. miraculously, he survived and he's actually regained consciousness today. the person of interest, the suspect in that case, they put out a description of him, they put out his name, they put out a description of his car and license plate, but they could not find him since that shooting on sunday. tonight they have found him, and in all places, he was at the white house. they found him in washington, d.c. he was arrested after apparently throwing some nonhazardous substance over the white house fence. this is a person who's considered to have serious mental health issues, but that shooting suspect in custody with the most surprising end to that story. it's bizarre and scary in lots

of ways, but that person is in custody. >> shocking when it came over a few minutes ago and we connected the dots. we have a projection. and that is that ted cruz is our projected winner in idaho. let's see where we're placing the rest of the field in order. often the projected winner does not mean the finishing order after that. chuck todd? >> this is something for -- you know, i was going to say, before this tonight, it had seemed as none of the challengers to trump had anything to hang their hat on. >> yeah. >> ted cruz now gets to say i won something. it's the only thing -- he continues to be the only guy that consistently can say, hey, when trump's not winning, if somebody else is winning, it's usually me. so, that helps. he's now pulled into second in michigan and his lead over kasich for third has expanded.

so, he'll be second in michigan and mississippi. he will continue to argue tomorrow, hey, if you want to stop trump, i might be the only vehicle left to do it. but as we know, the establishment republican party insiders, they think, you know, what lindsey graham said, pick your poison on how you want to go, but ted cruz consistently is the best organized campaign. he will be a player. if this is an open convention, he will be as pivotal of a player. i guarantee he will know his delegates better than anybody else. i guarantee you his delegates will be more loyal than anybody else, even more loyal than trump's. so, look, this is a well-run campaign. they don't -- look, they're not dropping the ball on idaho, okay? this was a state -- you know, they don't drop the ball on the little states. they do sort of kick -- there's sort of a little engine that could here. >> trump didn't even try in idaho. the one candidate who didn't visit or spend any ad money, nothing. >> everything fell trump's way tonight. kasich didn't get second, no momentum going into ohio.

marco rubio is in fourth place in both michigan and mississippi. he's sitting at 5% in mississippi. >> below john kasich. >> below john kasich. marco rubio's technically from the south. i mean, i always say, when you're from miami, you're so far south, you're in the sixth borough of new york. >> in a state that arguably is at the heart of the republican party base, how can you be the republican nominee? you really can't be. >> there is an exit poll number to me that was the most devastating to marco rubio and i'll ask him tomorrow in the town hall with him. 60% in mississippi said they would be dissatisfied if he were the nominee. 60% of republicans said they would be satisfied if trump or cruz were their nominee. >> yeah. >> how is he upside down like this? it's a collapse. >> they can thank right-wing talk radio for that. >> i think talk radio did hurt him. >> of the four republican candidates, there is one who is relentlessly attacked on right-wing talk radio -- >> and this is new. >> -- every day. but it's been over the immigration issue. ever since the gang of eight, he's been attacked relentlessly

every day. he's been considered poison. they've been against every second of his presidential canvassing. >> well, it has worked. >> and this would be mississippi republican primary electorate would be a place where that would take a mean toll. >> just the broad view on marco rubio right now is not only is he in single digits, both in mississippi and in michigan, but he's losing to john kasich, both in mississippi and in michigan. the really big picture is that of the 23 states that have voted now, we've got 14 of them going for donald trump? the idea that we're talk being any suspense about who's going to be the republican nominee is starting to feel like -- >> and if cruz over the next week continues to make his argument, you know, a vote for anybody else is a vote for donald trump, you've got to coalesce around me, and the establishment and the rest of the party continues to say, i don't know about ted cruz and half-heartedly, then how does donald trump not win the states next week? >> the problem is they're sort of stuck in ohio and in florida in this respect -- both states have early voting. rubio and kasich have already

banked too many votes for them to pull out. >> the time has come to reset for our next hour of coverage. this will be midnight on the east coast.coast. already been an eventful evening. stay with us. that's it. thought there would be more to it. we welcome you back. >> welcome to my life. >> as you say. >> want the election music. ♪ >> does that help? >> it helps enormously, thank you all very much. >> we do this in our private time, too. >> here's the plot line so far tonight. michigan for the democratic party, split look for the democrats as you'll be hearing. it's all on the big board behind me. bernie sanders was awarded the state of michigan. it took a long time after the polls closed for good reason and a very high percentage before that call came