we welcome you back. >> do you want us to hum the music. the election

trump, cruz, marco rubio, and nothing for john kasich. here's the democratic map. hillary clinton in gold. bernie sanders in blue. that's where we stand. andrea mitchell watching it all with us from washington.

i'm sorry. she's not. hi rachel. >> hi rachel. >> i'm right here. >> got a big board behind news the issue on the republican side remains the same, which is that donald trump is going win or nobody's going to win. right now it looks like the only other person in contention to even try to win is ted cruz. john kasich wants to win his home state. probably his best shot of winning nimp -- winning anywhere else was tonight in michigan. right now he is not even second in michigan. he is third to ted cruz. marco rubio keeps telling everybody that tonight doesn't matter at all, unless he wins hawaii, which will be important. so far he has only pulled out wins in the minnesota caucus, and in puerto rico. he is winning in his home state but your home state alone is not enough. either donald trump is going to wrap up the nomination next week, one week from tonight with

the big delegate prizes in all the states that are going to vote or it will be decided at the convention. there is no other option for the republican party. if donald trump keeps having commanding nights like he is having tonight anybody else is going to have a difficult argument on their hand for trying to make a small d democratic case why he shouldn't get the nomination, why he wouldn't have earned it. we knew that was going to be the forecast going into the night. it is underscored when you look at this national map and you look at his absolute nom dominance in the republican race and you look at the ease of his wins. there is no reason to compare him and hillary clinton at this point except for the fact they are front-runners, but for her to lose michigan tonight and to wrap it up as handily as donald trump did. >> this was a map that was made for cruz. and essentially trump stole it. he was able to -- he -- you know he has run even with him with

evangelicals give or take depending on the state and he has won all the working class voters, some of whom have come in who haven't voted in primaries in the past. you laid it out very fairly. this is it. it's do or die next tuesday. they either stop him in florida or ohio or he is the nominee. >> is there any coherence to the places where ted cruz has won? because he didn't pull off a traditional southern strategy. which we thought he would. he has won in the scatter shot spots. >> he has won places -- you can tell a ted cruz state in a few ways. number one, it touches the state of texas. that has helped. number two, it is a closed process, closed primary. only opened to republicans. donald trump does better when you have independents and democrats coming in. and then the third part of it is the more rural it is. because the more rural, the more religious. idaho fits that pattern, even iowa fits that pattern. while it's same day voter

registration it is only open to republicans only. that is the pattern for cruz, which is really the traditional santorum huckabee pattern. the problem for cruz is all he is is a better funded version of santorum and huckabee. >> devastating but it is true. >> he has yet to prove he can do something greater than that, that he can go out and win a swing state. he wants to target illinois and missouri. if he pulls that off next tuesday that's a big deal. he needs to find a place to win in the # big five next tuesday. north carolina he can pick off a lot of places. would al see how he does. illinois and missouri he needs to spend time in. missouri should be right for him. that's a southern-like state. there is a reason missouri joined the s.e.c. cultural as well as anything else. i think there is a shot there. >> can we talk briefly about cruz's shot in florida? obviously, there has been a lot of noise about cruz making a splashy entrance into the florida market.

people are seeing it as basically a psych out move for marco rubio. if marco rubio does as badly as it looks like he is going to do tonight, and his national momentum slows down further and it damages his prospects in florida does cruz have a shot in florida. >> no, all he does is hand it to trump. >> he is kicking rubio while he's down. the whole point is to bash rubio and keep him from winning. >> this is the weird gamble that cruz is making. and i get it. but the gamble is, i want to get rubio out of the way sooner or later. i've got a quick way to get him out. if we dilute his vote and let trump win. now it strengthens trump short-term, which is why i think it is a high risk, but it gets rubio out of the way because one of the things they discovered is rubio and cruz they are more people's second choice than people

realize. they share more supporters. the two have been in each other's way in some of the states although tonight marco rubio wasn't in anybody's way. but i think that's what the cruz campaign is calculating. >> how can anybody think that strengthening trump short-term is a good idea? clearly not a good idea. >> i think a lot of it is personal antipathy. a lot of it s. there is a lot of bad blood here. >> weird. >> i know it's weird. some people hate each other. >> chris matthews is in detroit. i call this, if you would have told me a year ago election season. everyone starts every sentence on the democratic side and on the republican side if you would have told me a year ago, i wouldn't have believed you. >> what? >> fill in the blank. bernie sanders, democratic socialist, donald trump would be at the top of the pack in the republicans. >> oh, yeah. i know. well that would have been a wild pick. i have to tell you. i've got rick tower here who tried to stop that from happening for a long time, communications director for ted cruz. by the way, lying ted and little marco -- this is what -- that's how the conversation went

tonight from trump. >> i think you can expect more it. i think if the republican establishment wants that kind of a person to get the nomination, then they won't do anything about it. but look -- >> what about rachel's argument. i completely -- i think we all agree it makes historic sense that right now it look like trump can win the nomination by cleveland. no one else can. and if someone tries to win at cleveland having not beaten trump in the primary season will they get away with it historically? will a party nominate someone who didn't come in first? >> it hasn't happened in -- >> i don't know. >> i'd have to go back to stevenson in 1952. >> those are the rules. >> i know the rules. >> if you don't arrive at the convention with the requisite amount of delegates there is a process to nominate. >> but there is a way to get it filled up. so the leader does end up getting if nomination. >> marco rubio had a really bad

night, third, third, and fourth. john kasich replaced marco as the establishment candidate tonight i think. if marco goes into florida, i think he is going to lose. i don't know what his path forward is after losing florida. >> what is cruz going to win next week. >> missouri. >> that's it. >> missouri looks like a midwestern state. >> the winner take all states he is not in contention with, ohio and florida? >> he could possibly win north carolina. i think winning florida would be a long shot. if rubio got out, maybe he could win florida. but that's the whole point. if rubio got out -- >> rubio is not getting out. >> i don't think he is either. >> how does cruz win? >> he could win -- well, he could win if marco is effectively out and people stopped voting for him. which they did tonight. he got single digits. he will get no delegates tonight unless he wins hawaii. >> michigan, ohio, pennsylvania -- he is not going the win those states. >> he came in second in pennsylvania that's strong. >> when do we give controversy

out for second. these are winner take all states. you don't get a trophy. no cigar. >> if -- donald trump did well in these states. the other candidates are going to have to decide. if donald trump was any other candidate it would be over. we have all said. that but he is not. so these other candidates are in the race. if they continue to be in the race donald trump will be a nominee and you will have a nominee who says things like little marco, et cetera. >> if you were still in the campaign with ted cruz and you watched that strange performance by trump tonight first of all selling all his wares, defending him against attack made against him by anybody, even lindsay graham, point by point for over an hour what would you be thinking? >> i think this is an insecure

individual and do i want him to have the nuclear codes. >> does he still have fire power? >> in the conventional sense, no. but he does. he has essentially broken all the rules. we'll see going forward. people are finally starting to attack him, finally starting to spend money against him. it remains to be seen. >> who is the best bet now being the nominee going into cleveland. >> who is the best? >> bet? >> besides trump. >> trump is the best bet. >> yes. >> you are willing to concede that. >> i think he has the best path to the nomination because of the numbers. the question is whether the party is going to accept that and whether they are going to try to rally behind cruz. the establishment is talking about rallying behind cruz. you have lindsey graham talking about getting behind cruz. and that he can work with cruz. >> i'm only interviewing you but he has been lucky in his opposition. the pope, or vincente fox or jeb bush or your guy, he seems to relish and exploit every mano

a mano encounter. if the establishment shows its ugly head at the convention in cleveland and tries to stop the guy who went in there with the most delegates it's going to be a an ugly convention. >> if he doesn't get the requisite number of delegates i think they will try to stop him. >> what happens then? >> you will have a very ugly convention. >> i think -- >> back to you. i think 's going to be worse. i think it's civil war. i think trumps if he doesn't get the nomination having won the most delegates. if he wins the nomination, there will be a lot of people who walk because of that. >> we have that to look forward too. chris, thank you. yeah, it didn't look like a peaceful ending either way. a break here. when we come back, more of our live election coverage on this super tuesday two. have we agreed to call it? >> superish tuesday.

here at msnbc headquarters in new york, it's 3:15 a.m. in the east and 12:15 in the wrest. with breaking news tonight, nbc news reports donald trump has won the hawaii caucus. sheer a look at where the race stands. with 83% of the vote in, trump a commanding lead with 45%. followed by ted cruz and marco rubio. and then john kasich. it ends a very big night for trump. the third state that he has won the hawaii caucus as well as the michigan and mississippi primaries this evening. donald trump now with 456 delegates with all eyes now on the winner take all primaries in florida and ohio next week. as we said, nbc projects donald trump to be the winner in hawaii. stay with msnbc all morning, the place for politics. now back to our special coverage, already in progress.

>> wow. >> the lid was blown off the hot dog place. >> we've got a great bernie rally here. >> the celebration has unexpectedly erupted on chris matthews's set. >> look at this. look at this. look what's going on here. >> the down trodden. >> seconds away from a bad word. i have that feeling. hair on your neck stands up. >> this is the part of the night when things get weird. that's why we stay up this late. >> yeah. >> speaking of weird our friend steve kornacki. >> she meant that affectionately. >> he knows how i mean it. he knows it's positive. what's going on with the delegates on the democratic side. >> i'll give you something weird. this is a huge night for bernie sanders. he just won the biggest state he has won yet. he just won michigan.

let's take you through the delegates. 130 delegates for that state. they give these things out proportionately. that was close race in michigan. it's proportionate by district in this state. it's not official right now but it looks like bernie sanders might have won more districts than hillary clinton. if things go well for bernie sanders when these are distributed, he will win 70 to 60 the pledge delegate count in michigan a gap of about ten right there. the other state that voted tonight of course was mississippi. a blood bath in mississippi. 83 to 16. here's the thing. they give out a lot of delegates by district there. to get any delegates in those districts you need 15%. it looks like there are districts in mississippi where sanders didn't even clear the 15% threshold. what does that mean? 36 delegates up for grabs in mississippi tonight. wait for this. hillary clinton it looks like is going to win that thing 32-4. if you add these two together, hillary clinton is going to get

about 92 delegates out of tonight and bernie sanders is going to get about 74 delegates out of tonight. if you add that -- again, the allocated -- these are the delegates being given out in the the primary season. if you add these together what does that mean fore hillary clinton, 761 when night is finished. bernie sanders, 545. he will be down 216. came into the night down less than 200. gets his biggest win of the campaign, ends up down 216 or thereabouts in the pledge delegate count. his campaign's theory here, they catch hillary clinton, win the allocated county delegates, these super delegates change their mind and go for bernie sanders. this is why it's so hard to make up a 200 delegate gap in that pledge count. >> in 2008, we saw a mirror image this where we saw barack obama in 2008 having built up a small but significant delegate lead early on in the primary process and even then then

senator clinton kept winning states, she never caught up. it's difficult to come from behind in the democratic race. >> exactly. she got big wins in small states in that race. he got big wins in caucus states, racked up the delegates there. hillary clinton won pennsylvania and ohio, big states late. but because barack obama still got 45, 46% of the votes in those states proportionately she wasn't getting the numbers he was getting by winning small states 70-30. >> the margin matters, margin matters, margin matters. >> margin matters. >> can i say one other thing about ha that in terms of our guest here, elise jordan, lawrenceo done is back with us. >> we rewelcome you. >> in hawaii there is one sidebar story in terms of the republican race. which is the marco rubio campaign says they have had a dirty trick played on them. they said the ted cruz campaign, the ted cruz campaign specifically in hawaii sent out

an e-mail blast last night effectively telling voters republican voters across hawaii that marco rubio was getting out. they forwarded the cnn story the marco rubio campaign voe fifrously denied that he was getting out before florida. they are calling that a dirty trick that's basically the same kind of dirty trick the cruz campaign played on ben carson in iowa. that hurt ted cruz's perception of decency. is this something that's going to resonate about around the ted cruz candidacy or one of those whacky things that happened late at night in a small state. >> i think it is resonating. that was the robo call that i got from mississippi from the trump campaign talking about how ben carson had been played this dirty trick and how it was terrible and ted cruz wasn't a man of character. et cetera. et cetera. i think this is an area resonating among republican primary voters. however, the rubio didn't do enough to magnify it.

they started out pushing back at the cruz campaign you about i think they could have blown it up even more. >> if it is a dirty trick, as dirty tricks go, it was perfectly targeted for tonight because the only place -- the only place where marco rubio had any kind of chance to do anything. and the cruz campaign gets to say -- if it was deliberate they get to say hawaii, those people, we had nothing to do with them. and you know, there is a kind of ring of credibility to that because it is so far away and who is paying attention to their hawaii campaign? well, this week everybody is paying attention to their hawaii campaign and they know exactly what they are doing in hawaii. and there is an echo. that's the big problem in politics. if we've heard something like this about you before and now here it comes again, it has extra credibility. >> look at the bombast definite -- look at the bombast deficit. just like the excitement deficit. a perceived sleight in the hands of donald trump gets magnified. look at what he was able to do with cruz on the honesty score. this time, to your point, it

wasn't picked up. it wasn't used as -- >> rubio campaign is doing a little with it but haven't made it resonate. >> it's partially because they don't have the megaphone right now. everyone is seeing what is happening tonight, his disappointing performance, and rubio is kinds of getting pushed aside and everyone is focusing in on the two-person race. kasich was hopeful because of his second place finish in michigan might make him the new establishment front-runner. but i don't think -- maybe he will win ohio, maybe there will be a glimmer of hope but it doesn't seem likely now. >> when and if rubio is out of the race, donald trump will add this to his list of dirty tricks that lying ted as he calls him has pulled off. this will take its place besides the ben carson one but he is not going to use it until they get rubio out of the race. >> if you are in charge of the rubio campaign what's your public stance tomorrow? what do you say to the

candidate? how do you send him out? what do you do? >> listen, he's got to go out there. chuck made a point out there, so many early votes have already been cast in florida. rubio owes it to those voters to stay on the ballot. you would in effect kind of corrupt or destroy future prospects for early voting in florida if major candidates were in positions where they end up dropping out before election day after i have cast my early vote. yeah, and he is a senator from your state. you know, his challenge is going to be just to face questioners in the media who in my eye are trying to kick the candidates out the door. as soon as they get an interview who is not front-runner in either party they are always asking how long are you going to stay in here. >> more important is thursday night's debate. he has had two terrible debates. this is his last shot for redemption in florida. >> as a political pro, i know we've got to go.

as a quick look ahead for florida and rubio, the big thing in marco rubio's life right now is he doesn't have a job once this presidential campaign is over unless he is going to be president. he is not going to be in the senate again. not running for re-election. is there a case to be made that he ought to get out in florida before he potentially loses that race? because it would be better for him to have quit before losing badly in his home state than to get beaten badly in his home state if he wants to ever run for florida governor >> it's tricky for him on the one hand in terms of legacy if he wants to run for governor best not to be a loser. on the other hand, the donor class that he is dependent upon and will be dependent on him in the future is invested and on the with aing him to deny a trump a victory in florida.

>> if i took thousands of early votes and then dropped out and wasn't there for you on the day of election day. >> you know what he should do? he should run in minnesota. problem solved. >> well, look at the time. another break. we'll be back with more right after this. >> or puerto rico.

raise your hand. i swear i'm gonna vote for donald trump next week. >> it is like nothing we've seen before in modern american political history. the stop trump movement reaching a new level of urgency. >> donald trump is a phony a fraud. his promises are as worthless as a degree from trump university. >> he refused to give them their money. >> did you see the money they spent, the millions in negative ads about me. >> don't let trump fool you. >> trump is just a fraud. >> stop him now. >> a lot of people establishment or not who agree with me that donald trump should not be president of the united states. >> he is attacking all the core tenets of the republican party platform. >> i reject trump and i'm urging other republicans to do the same. >> i had to support ted cruz over donald trump, i would. >> i will not stop until we fight a man that chooses not to disavow the kkk. >> how many times have you

supposed to disavow? >> hijacked by someone who is not a conservative. >> this is a campaign that doesn't begin to be over. it's broken all the rules of history so far. i have a feeling it's going to break a few more before we're finished. >> wow. >> it has been one week of the stop donald trump effort on full blast. >> week in the life of what passes for -- and there has been so much discussion around this -- the gop establishment trying to do a takedown of donald trump after this incredible campaign season. >> at the end of that one week, he wins michigan and wins mississippi. >> here we are. the board doesn't change. it gets more impressive for him. let's bring in our next two guests to talk about this. steve schmidt is a friend of ours. he has been on already tonight a lot of campaign experience, mccain/palin, george bush, george bush white house, around schwarzenegger, and the republican national committee and you are a former national counsel to the rnc, to the romney campaign, bush/cheney.

i'll start with you. sum up what you see on the board tonight. for donald trump, and also the losses on the part of a guy like marco rubio. >> donald trump is the overwhelming front-runner for the republican nomination. if he wins in florida and ohio next week he becomes the presumptive nominee. when we look at the contest tonight, the two candidates in the republican race who have any path to the nomination are donald trump and ted cruz. john kasich attempting to win ohio next week, marco rubio attempting to win in his home state -- they are attempting to essentially be favorite son candidates but neither has any path to the republican nomination. and this notion that the washington establishment will deny the nomination to the person who secures the most votes over the primary process i think is fanciful.

but even if it were to happen -- and i don't think it would happen -- but if it would happen, then it would destroy the republican party. it would blow it. it would guarantee that hillary clinton was the winner in the november election. and that's why i think it is unlikely that that will happen at cleveland during the convention. >> ben that's where you come in, i'm afraid. you are like it or not a part of the washington establishment. >> thank you. >> and we should also note you also love your party. and you've meant a lot to it over the years. last time you were here, i think it's fair to say we shared a moment. you got very candid about how one would go about wrestling the nomination from donald trump. how much of that do you still stand behind? and do you think it is at all a possibility for cleveland? well, look, here's what is interesting about it, and what those who might choose to try and derail donald trump will

sake some solace in. mitt romney, at this stage, after the second week of march, had 54% of the delegates. your statistics just showed that donald trump has 43%. that is a tough trajectory to get to a majority of delegates unless he wins both ohio and florida next week. and so this is not so much a trump versus cruz, trump versus kasich, trump versus rubio. this is donald trump's contest with himself to be able to amass enough delegates to come to cleveland with a majority. truth of the matter is, there are procedural and rules obstacles that a candidate would face if he doesn't have a majority of the delegates on the first round that don't involve rules manipulation. it involves the way the rules are now. >> in terms of those rules and in terms of just us all being able to imagine what that convention fight might be like

one of those rules is you have to have won a majority of delegates in eight states i believe in order to be considered for the nomination. is that a rule that would go out the window along with every other convention once we got there? >> in fact that's not rule. that's part of what's called the temporary rules. each convention has to pass for itself the number of states that put a candidate's name in nomination. that rule was in effect for 2012. it's not in effect for 2016. in the 2016 convention and its rules committee has to make that decision. so there is no eight-state rule in effect right now for the next convention. in fact, in 2012, the number of states required was increased by that convention from five to eight. and the 2016 convention can make

that number one, eight, 18, 28, or 58 if it wishes. so fun, fun, fun. >> the temporary rules versus the rules, versus the rules that we think they'll stick to is a nice set of dividing lines. >> a world in which we'll all live. >> we are all going to have to learn. all summer vacation is hereby canceled because we are going to be study up until the conventions. steve schmidt, as somebody who knows the republican consulting class very well and you know a lot of professional operatives, is there an active market right now in people who are good at things like convention organizing, delegate work, the types of insider play that will be necessary to win a fight at the convention if the other campaigns are going to make an effort to try to take it in cleveland? are people on the market for that kind of work right now? >> look, washington, d.c. is filled with people who have the expertise to execute a plan laid out by somebody like ben who

would be able to look at the rules, to navigate the rules, and get to the outcome and the scenario that ben just laid out. putting that aside, though, i think that there is a reality here. and the reality is this -- the republican party has seen a rebellion against its establishment, against its leadership in washington, d.c. by the grassroots. can you imagine a scenario where the result of the election would be that the person who got the most votes, got most delegates -- and let's say he was short, narrowly, of the threshold to be nominated, that it would be wrested away and the nomination would be given to whom? to a washington insider? perhaps to mitt romney? to marco rubio? i think it's fantastical. and the consequences of it would be i think hard to imagine. it could put the house of representatives majority into jeopardy.

it could put the u.s. senate majority into jeopardy. it would absolutely fracture the republican party. >> ben ginsburg i think i can surmise from the way you have been talking about it that you disagree with steve schmidt that you don't necessarily think it would be fracturing or crippling to the republican party to have that kind of fight at the convention where the person who went in with the most but not a sufficient number of delegates didn't end up with the nomination? >> i think it's very much -- if somebody gets a majority they are going to be the nominee. if donald trump has a majority, it is done. he will be the nominee. if he's short, then it's going to depend on how short he is. somebody who goes in with 43% of the delegates will be barely over 1,000, more than 200 delegates short. that's a historically weak nominee for a candidate going into the convention. if he is 50 delegates short that's tough to take away. the rules once people start

peeling back the rules will make it obvious there is no skull duggery that has to be done if a candidate comes into a convention 200, 250 votes short. in fact, the rules deal with that process. and that's where you will get the wide open contested convention. >> ben ginsburg, former rnc general counsel. steve schmidt, republican campaign veteran. thank you. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> talk about two different views about how this could happen. ben seeing all the ways it's possible. and steve seeing how it's impossible. and those guys are equally smart and equally facile with this stuff. >> that's exactly it. you would want both of those

guys heading into a fight. they are just going to use different weapons. >> yeah. >> no one is fighting here. you can tell the kids to go to sleep. we'll keep going for the adults on the other side of this break as we cover another amazing night in american politics.

we are back on this super tuesday two evening, which is actually now wednesday. and one thing i don't say often

enough, preceding interviews of all kinds, both parties, if you are connected to a campaign, it's just an assumption you haven't slept well, eaten well, you haven't worked out since the last time you were home, wherever that is. there is a 50/50 shot you can name if someone comes up to you and says, where are we? 50/50 shot you'll get it right. i've seen some fantastic reporters get it spectacularly wrong. given all of that, also, spouses have to travel separately often. jane sanders, first lady of vermont -- >> of the sanders -- first lady of the sanders campaign. >> first lady of the sanders campaign, college president in her own right, traveling separately from her husband was approached tonight with -- after the good news arrived that her husband had won michigan. >> jane sanders, you just walked into this hotel room here having

learned -- you got stuck on a plane and weren't able to be here for the results but you saw them on the plane. your reaction? >> right. we are all very excited to see it. i mean we were going to be here for the rally. but a canceled plane turned into another delayed plane and the third plane got us here just now. i'm excited to go up and see my husband. >> you were just on the phone with him. what is his mood like right now having unexpectedly won michigan. >> pretty happy. pretty happy. what else could it be. >> what happens next. you are not only his spouse but also a close political adviser. what's your view of where this campaign goes from here. >> i think he has a winning campaign. he has a message -- what i've always known, the more people see him, the more they get to know him, the more they like him. every bit of time that we have we are out there on the campaign trail. he has a whole bunch of things happening tomorrow in florida, and on the next day in florida,

and of course we have the uni vision debate tomorrow. >> hillary clinton has already in the past couple of days said she is looking forward to running against the republicans in the general election, consolidating support behind her. what's your reaction to that in light this news out of michigan tonight. >> well, we wouldn't be so presumptuous ourselves. >> you think he is going to be in this all the way to the convention. >> i know he is going to be in this all the way to the convention. there is lot of people counting on him. and he is not going to let them down. and there is a lot of states left to vote. the idea is it's not just about bernie. 'about the issues he believes in so strongly. we need to keep giving voice to. that what is happening now, i mean the states that he keeps on winning -- he won three caucus states this week. and now michigan. so -- >> what do you think of the next states up on the map where he can win? >> the next ones.

illinois, florida, ohio. all of them. i mean, he can win. where he doesn't win is where they don't know him. the more time that goes on, the more people know him. so i think the sky's the limit. but i think he is winning the debate in terms of setting the agenda and giving voice to the concerns of americans. and that's a good -- that's a win in and of itself. >> jane sanders thanks very much for your time tonight. just off of the plane here, where her husband who has just learned that he has won the michigan primary. back to you. >> casey hunt in miami. i forgot to add it is a glamorous job too being on a campaign. you get to end your day separate from your spouse in a bar in miami. both correspondent and spouse.

bernie sanders was awarded the michigan primary tonight. and you listen to the republicans talking about fractures in their party and oh, my goodness, the democrats have their own set of worries don't they chris matthews, who is standing by in detroit. chris, what a wild night. >> it sure is. i think every time we think there is a trend line it gets interrupted and bent out of shape. i will say, though, that there is a parallel theme here. isolationism, certainly protectionism are strong, strong, strong elements in both parties now with trump and bernie sanders both against all the wars we've been fighting, especially iraq, and also against these trade deals. they do have those two common shared themes to those campaigns. both in opposition to party establishment. i think what hillary clinton realizes tonight as she goes to bed she is not going to shake bernie sanders. he is going to be with her all the way to philadelphia.

he has the money, he has the dream and he has that spouse who is gung ho for him. i think he is going to stay with this thing. he is not going to get a second shot. he is 75 in september. this is his chance at history. he is going to take it. on the other side, i agree with steve schmidt. i don't know if i agree with ben ginsburg. if trump comes anywhere near being the nominee, he will win it and they will have to live with it. if he knocks off rubio in florida, he heads to cleveland with a good chance. the republican establishment has been shattered and the example of that is this. compare hillary clinton's performance tonight, even though she lost to jeb's performance in this campaign. the two symbols and persons of the democratic and republican establishments didn't do the same or well this year. hillary clinton is in this

fight, will probably win it, jeb bush has been blown away. the republican establishment is is much, much worse shape than the democratic establishment. >> good point. >> chris, thank you. the only one i know who gets better as the hour grows later. >> true. he gets freed from the bounds of corporal existence. he gets smarter and smarter and you and i turn into bumblers. >> writing notes on file folders. but there is more of that when we come right back.

looking down the calendar, the primary calendar, particularly on the democratic side, with this win by bernie sanders tonight in michigan, the next big state that is demographically almost identical to michigan is of course ohio. and everybody has been talking about florida and ohio on the republican side. but ohio has suddenly become a locus of interest on the democratic side. we're joined by lawrence o'donnell and elise jordan. looking at march 15th, florida, illinois, missouri, north carolina, and ohio, do the prospects look different on the democratic side before we got these results out of mississippi and michigan? >> i think it's exciting for bernie and the rust belt states. i think he has a lot of energy. i think the voters needed that to make them believe they had a shot. i think this is a great infusion of vigor for the campaign. >> bernie sanders personally has been saying he thought he he was going to win in michigan.

the polls said absolutely the opposite. he was right and the polls were very wrong. >> yeah, and he had a great night. donald trump had the best night and he had the best night in two ways. not just in vote getting but in his control of the media. donald trump, we gave him a 40 minute infomercial uninterrupted here as did every other cable news network. he invited the media to criticize and fact check during -- everything he said during that 40 minutes. that was three hours ago. we haven't had a minute to do that yet. he knows that. we have a lot of data pouring in. he knows that. he was asked one substantive question by the press. the press is deliberately not miked during these events that he has so that you can't hear what the question is. that's deliberate on trump's part. it was about imposing 35% tariffs on cars and everything coming into this country, which is to say a 35% sales tax on

american consumers. he refused to answer it. he belittled the reporter who he called jeremy. i don't know who that jeremy is and told him that's a silly question and wouldn't answer it. >> nobody is listening to you, jeremy. >> he did spend time to try to convince us that trump stakes is a growing concern. that's a lie. trump stakes was a business for two months in 2007. he has been out of business since then. to catalog the number of lies he told in his 40 minutes would take 40 minutes. each one of the those lies needs an explanation. on my program tomorrow night, i will have another victim of trump university testifying. here is a presidential candidate who some people can't imagine not being given the nomination if he simply comes close to winning the nomination by votes. he is a defendant in fraud cases. a federal fraud case in california that he will be testifying in during the presidential campaign.

he is a defendant in a fraud case in new york state for trump university, which he called the university -- the attorney general of new york said it would be the same thing as if trump opened you know a place where he sold band-aids and called it a hospital. this is the most ridiculous candidate to get this far in this process that we've ever seen. to imagine him not being given the nomination if he doesn't earn it through votes is easy. remember, he will be the only one scheduled to testify in his own fraud case while that convention is going on. >> lawrence, we didn't want to let the night go by -- a man who has generated more talk than actual media time is john kasich. and as we head into ohio, he desperately wanted a second place finish tonight in michigan. hell, the kasich campaign was saying second place is a win for us in michigan. we did hear from him. and here briefly are part of his comments tonight.

>> i'm going to continue to run a positive campaign and not get down in the gutter and throw mud at anybody. so i think the people are beginning to reward a positive campaign, one that they say to their children, this is way to conduct yourself in politics. i think that people are beginning to see that. and secondly -- and secondly, because of that, just wait one week from tonight. we are going to win the state of ohio. and it will be a whole new ball game. >> if his projection comes true, if not a whole new ball game, a very interesting one. >> it will be a shrunken ball game. he says if he doesn't win ohio he will get out of the race. we expect that marco rubio would do the same if he doesn't win florida. a week from tonight we should meet here and do this again. i think that's going to be a big one. >> i think i saw the schedule in the break room. and i think we are both down to

work that night. >> we should totally do that. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> i was gonna bring just some -- >> hot dogs? >> yeah. >> i'm so in trouble. >> so as we head into our next hour what have we learned? it's been another eventful night from campaign 2015 into 2016. >> that's right. the front-runners tonight both had good nights. trump had the best night of all. bernie sanders had an upset win in michigan. hillary clinton is going to get the delegates win but bernie sanders gets the morale boost and the momentum. donald trump continues to just stream roll toward what looks like a commanding path into that nomination in cleveland this summer. >> thanks to chris matthews in cleveland and all our friends in detroit. all our friends here.

we welcome you back. >> do you want us to hum the music. the election music.

♪ >> does that help? it helps enormously. thank you all so much. here's the plot line so far tonight -- michigan, for the s tonight. michigan for the democratic party, split look for the democrats as you'll be hearing. it's on the big board behind me. bernie sanders was awarded the state of michigan. it took a long time after the polls closed and for good reason. earlier in the evening it was a landslide victory in mississippi as hillary clinton continued her success in the south. a huge victory over bernie sanders in mississippi. the gop primary late tonight ted cruz was the projected winner over donald trump 42% to