cruz communications director, now a political contributor here at msnbc, rick tyler is with us as well, along with joe, willie, and me. what a great group. >> a great group. so? >> so, willie, what are you looking at right now? >> i'm looking squarely at ohio, for the reasons steve kor knack y just said. it looks like based on all the polling donald trump will have a good night in florida. ohio is still up for grabs. it's a close race and a popular governor there. if donald trump can win ohio, i don't want to say it's over, but steve kornacki pointed out he has a clear path to the delegates and no contested convention. >> if he wins ohio along with florida, it's just really -- >> the one asterisk there is that assumes he would also take north carolina and illinois. if he loses north carolina and illinois and wins ohio and florida, i can't imagine that scenario, technically that could happen and then it's still a wide-open race. >> and it's very interesting. you said something earlier on

about, before we came on the air, he's actually pulling out more disaffected republicans that haven't voted than democrats. we're seeing in ohio, at least, cl, you know, is sort of the heart of the reagan democratic area, a lot of democrats saying, telling our reporters, this morning, that trump is actually the first republican they've ever voted for. >> that may be the case, but that's an anecdote. there was an analysis in the atlantic that said that trump is actually motivating republicans who may not have voted in the last couple of -- >> for romney -- >> right, who weren't motivated to come out for romney or mccain. no surprise there. i think the question for trump is, he's won 35% of the overall votal to date. he has never won more than 50% of any race. can he do that tonight? how does cruz do in, for example, missouri, tonight? how does he do in illinois? who does kasich do in illinois? we will see. but, you know, the big question for trump is, can he get over that 50% mark? can he break that ceiling.

and if that's impossible, then are we looking towards a convention in cleveland? >> rick tyler, what are you looking for to find? >> well, i think it's all in ohio. that's why i'm here. if governor kasich can win ohio to slow down donald trump, but it looks like rubio will lose florida. we'll see if the polling is really wrong there. if rubio loses florida, it does get to a two-person race, because even if kasich wins ohio, he would have to win 110% of the votes, and i don't see him winning any other state tonight, of the delegates left. so that leaves no path for him. if rubio loses florida, it doesn't do anywhere else, it looks like he's not going to, it really becomes a two-person race, and that does give cruz a shot, if he can consolidate the establishment's vote, including the conservative's vote, against what donald trump is -- >> so let me ask you something, rick. i don't understand why ted cruz keeps saying, we're not going to be going to a brokered convention. somebody's going to win this thing outright, when the fact

is, it's, especially after tonight, going to be an uphill battle for ted cruz to get the 1,237 that he needs. shouldn't ted cruz be talking about an open convention? shouldn't he be hoping that john kasich fares better moving forward and maybe take away some of the votes from trump when we turn this thing to the northeast? >> i hear those two schools of thought, joe. one is that if the others stay in the race, it would deny trump the requisite number of delegates to arrive in cleveland, here in cleveland, with the right amount of delegates. but i think that cruz is banking on the fact that this is a, this is a high-floor, low-ceiling candidate. and if he got at shot at him one on one, he could beat him. and if he could beat him, and particularly if you look at all of these -- all the rest of the primary states are closed, except for wisconsin and indiana and then montana, a couple of small other ones. but all the other large states

are closed primaries. donald trump has not done well in closed primaries, only won four of them, cruz does well in closed primaries, so there's still a shot. >> but steve kornacki, we're going -- we're coming up on -- i mean, donald trump has already fought the battle in dixie. i mean, we're going to new jersey, we're going to new york, we're going to connecticut. it seeps to me we're going to his backyard now. >> that's the -- there's two things. first of all, there's that. there's the geographic aspect of it. new jersey is a big state coming up. the other thing it is, it's a winner-take-all state. today is the other critical date. march 15th is the first date that states can hold winner-take-all primaries. we have two of them today. new jersey's another. there's a whole bunch after this. so the if you're donald trump and we've had this line that he can't hit 50%. he's got that ceiling. even if that ceiling is real, if he's getting 41% in new jersey, and that's more than anybody else, he's getting 100% of the delegates in new jersey. so that's the other thing that changes today, that if donald trump is in -- whether it's a three-way race with kasich, a

four-way race if rubio is still active, trump can be gobbling up delegates with 40% of the vote. >> and if you have to wonder if ted cruz regrets being the factional candidate that he has become. because essentially what he's doing, he's saying, i'm going to motivate white male voters to come out and vote for me in droves and evangelicals. he hasn't reached out to h hispanics, he hasn't reached out to other minority communities. he's basically saying, we don't need you, i only need very, very conservative voters. >> who's saying that? ted cruz. >> ted cruz. >> and i think that might hurt him now as he's moving into new york, new jersey, these states in the northeast. is that going to appeal to those voters? i don't think it's a sure thing -- >> well, mary, who's left -- who's left? well, he doesn't -- >> who's left? >> he certainly doesn't in the one on one matchups i've seen. but who in the republican party that's left has done anything but reach out to white -- >> look, kasich -- >> -- male voters.

>> kasich has tried to rise above the fray. i keep calling him pastor kasich, preaching to the crowds, his messages of unity and love and hugs and all the rest of it. >> you are such a cynical "wall street journal" editorial -- >> i think every journalist becomes cynical after a while, joe. but the reality is that kasich is betting on the convention. cruz wants a one-on-one matchup with trump, trump wants a one on one matchup with cruz. we'll find out today if we'll get that. >> but there are two things that can happen now. steve, correct me if i'm wrong. if you look, rick just said the statistic that kasich would need 110% of the remaining delegates. i'm no statistician, but those sound like long odds to me. it's trump wins a majority of the delegates or we go to cleveland. >> so our friend sam stein has a

piece suggesting that the surge of anti-trump spending isn't all it's cracked up to be. the figure pales in comparison to 2012. think about this. four years ago, mitt romney's super pac spent more than $15 million on ads in the final days of the florida race, which almost all of which was aimed at newt gingrich, following his win in south carolina. remember that? >> oh, my god, rick, he actually, there were two times during the campaign that mitt romney deboned is newt gingrich. one was going into iowa, when it looked like gingrich was pulling ahead in iowa. the next was after he won south carolina. it was a laser focus, i never really saw anything like that. just tore him apart with $15 million in negative ads. why hasn't there been the sustained, consistent, organized focus against donald trump? >> it's a good question. i've talked to a lot of people about that very thing.

and i've talked to a number of campaign professionals and reporters who said, after the announcement of donald trump, though one took the campaign seriously. and then it seemed like everything he said, and as we went on and on, that's going to be it, that's going to be it, well, we no longer believe that. now it's almost too little. newt did make a tactical error in iowa. he should have fought back right away, he decided not to, because he wanted to run a john kasich-like positive campaign, and he got eviscerated. florida was probably just too much to handle, because mitt had spent almost upward of $30 million in florida. he wasn't going to be able to match that. he got all the momentum coming out of south carolina, but he probably should have skipped it. but, you're right. we'll never know what would have happened if there was a sustained negative attack on donald trump. but, again, every time there's a negative attack against donald trump, he seems to get stronger. >> he does. >> but i'll point out, he has a low ceiling. and what i want -- what steve was talking about in the winner-take-all states, if kasich and rubio stay in, that will ensure that donald trump takes those winner-take-all

states. the only way that cruz has a shot at any of the winner-take-all states, if those two candidates drop out. >> so, mary, if we move forward and let's say trump has a very good night tonight, what do conservatives do? i know there are a group of conservatives who reported along with erick erickson, who are going to be getting together, talking about an independent conservative run against donald trump. >> i think a third party run is a ticket to president hillary clinton. >> or maybe he'll take that over -- >> and again, we don't know what the map is going to look like after tonight. if rubio loses, as the polls say that he will, kasich wins, cruz picks up some delegates in illinois and missouri, then you are looking towards the convention and these campaigns are going to put forward their narratives and their arguments as to why they can win in the general. and that's what kasich is -- >> let me ask you this. i know you can't speak for the "wall street journal" editorial page, but you can speak for yourself. would you start moving towards

getting behind a donald trump candidacy if your only choice was trump and clinton? >> at the editorial page, we talk about policies. and we try to educate voters, so that they make the best possible, most informed decision. and that is something that really has not happened a lot on this campaign trail. whether it's trump on trade, whether it's trump on trade deficits, whether it's trump on the benefits -- >> but what about you, personally? what about you personally, though. if you had to make a choice between donald trump. because a lot of conservatives, talking about erick erickson's group, i think they've made the decision. they would rather have a conservative vote for and lose -- >> we don't have somebody with 1,237 delegates. so to me, it's kind of a meaningless question. >> you know, mary, it's meaningless, except it's not. >> and i'll tell you why. you have to look at what the facts are on the table today.

if trump has won 35% of the national polling, if kasich is ahead in ohio, this thing just rolls on. and i say, let the process play out, and i think, ultimately, voters in the democracy get the kind of government that they deserve. they get the government that they choose. so, let's see how tonight plays. let's see how tonight plays out. >> you think if they get to a contested convention and trump has a plurality but not a majority of votes, there's a chance that someone else can get the nomination? >> we wrote an entire editorial about the rules for a reason. you heard trump say this in the last debate. he wants the rules changed for him. he said, if i have a plurality, i should just get the nomination. well, that's not actually how the rules work. let's go through the process that's been laid out and let's see where it all falls out. >> okay. are we going to palm beach. all right. so let's go -- i think this is palm beach, florida. west palm beach. and andrea mitchell is in the middle of interviewing hillary clinton. let's just listen in.

>> why is brrnernie sanders doi that well against you in illinois? >> look, we are having a great contest in all of these states. and i'm very pleased that so many people are engaged in our side of the political equation, contrary to what you're seeing with the republicans, we're actually running a campaign on issues, not insults. we have a lot of the same goals. i think i have a better approach to actually realizing affordable college, paying down student debt, all the other issues that we're talking about. and i'm pleased that, as we stand here right now, i have a considerable lead in delegates and i've gotten more votes than anybody running, including donald trump by a big margin. >> would it hurt your momentum if you lose your home state to bernie sanders? >> i don't -- look, this is about getting delegates. and what we are doing is amassing enough delegates to win the nomination. and i think we will have a very good night getting delegates tonight. >> he's gone after you in his

speeches and also with an ad, because of rahm emanuel, the unpopularity of rahm emanuel. is rahm emanuel a real problem for you, especially with african-american voters in chicago? >> look, i'm running on my record, what i've done, who i am, and what i will do as president. and i think voters understand that. >> you said that there are no insults in contrast to the republicans. president clinton today went after bernie sanders in chicago and said that he's the blame candidate and that you're the responsibility candidate. that's being personal. >> oh, i don't think so. i think that, you know, that's pointing out that we have very different visions of where we are in the country and where we need to go. look, i'm an optimist about america. i hear so much pessimism, so much negativity, frankly, on both sides. lots of really dire predictions about our country. i think we can have the best years ahead of us, if we do what we have to do. and that is don't be blaming and

scapegoating and bullying and engaging in bigotry, like donald trump. let's look positively toward what we can achieve together and how we can get it done. so, that's where i stand. >> the "snl" parody this past week, kate mckinnon having you as a transformed candidate from hillary clinton to a brooklyn hawk and bernie sanders in a tie and jacket, did you see it? >> i didn't, i missed it. i'm sorry. we were campaigning somewhere. >> does it worry you that people think you are no longer hillary clinton, you're changing on trade, you're changing on key -- >> that is just not -- you know, that is just not true. look, i understand the story line, but let's talk about the reality. i voted against the only multi-national trade deal that came before the senate when i was in the senate. i said that i opposed the transpacific partnership. i actually waited to find out what was in it. i didn't just oppose it reflexively. i fought for american jobs when i was a senator from new york,

when i was secretary of state. so, look, i understand the power of the one-liners and all of that. but the facts are different. and i think people understand, number one, what i have done, and number two, what i will do. >> was nafta a mistake? >> you know, i think that you'll have to ask the experts who say on balance, some people were helped, some people were hurt. that is something that is going to be argued about for years to come. i'm saying, let's make sure trade works for us. you can't say no to trade. we're barely 5% of the world's population. we have to trade with the other 95% of the world's population. so the question is, how are we going to do it? and i've been very tough on saying, we've got to have a level playing field. when i was a senator from new york, i took on the chinese, on behalf of new york companies. when i was a secretary of state, i took on the chinese and others on behalf of, you know, american companies. that's what i've done, that's what i will do. >> you just landed here in

florida. did you see the trump plane? >> i did. that seems to be a big topic of conversation among the journalists. you want to get on it and see it yourself, don't you? >> i don't know about that. i was just wondering what you thought about it. >> i didn't think anything of it, to be honest. i saw it and i've seen it before. >> and your thoughts about the way this campaign has evolved with the protests and the violence at republican rallies, at his rallies, i should say. >> well, i hold donald trump responsible for that. he's been inciting aggressive behavior and even calling for violence, saying he'd punch people in the face and all of that, for months. and, you know, the other day i said, you know, he's like a political arsonist. he's been playing with matches and now we see people who are behaving in ways that are very disturbing. and he has to be held responsible. you know, that's his campaign. he's the one up on the stage, urging people on, saying he's going to pay legal fees for people who are punching others. i just think it's a very disturbing trend. and he should be the person singled out for it.

>> thank you, ma'am. >> thank you, good to talk to you. >> all right. that was our andrea mitchell interviewing presidential candidate hillary clinton. >> that was a fascinating -- >> she was absolutely correct about the violence. >> fascinating view. >> yeah, no doubt about it. mary kissel, what's your take your thoughts? >> on hillary clinton? >> absolutely. >> free college, free health care. she was against -- she was for free trade, then she was against it, when obama pulled to the party left, now she's for it again. you heard her say, you know, we're 5% -- >> is this a -- >> but, but, but, mary -- but, mary -- >> why isn't she pressed on how you're going to pay for it? who's going to pay for it? because wall street isn't going to pay for that stuff. >> but mary kissel, you're going to have to admit that if you look at her record and look at what donald trump has said, hillary clinton is closer to the "wall street journal" editorial page -- >> her record -- >> on trade. >> sorry, what's her record? >> on trade. >> what's her record, joe. >> he's trying to tell you.

>> what did she pass in the senate? what's her record? >> what she's supported over the past 40 years. >> but that's not her record. >> okay. well, mary, donald trump doesn't have a record yet to date on what he would do on trade. but if you take what she has said and the positions that she's held over the past 20 years, her positions on trade are closer to the "wall street journal" editorial page than donald trump. >> she's against the trans-pacific partnership. this is a 12-member trade deal. >> i understand that. >> it's been negotiated now -- >> but she and her husband were for nafta. >> they were for nafta. now you hear her questioning nafta. she said, it was good for some, bad for others. it shows you how far to the left the president has pulled party. once upon a time, both democrats and republicans understood the value of free trade. >> you do understand that hillary clinton would be closer to the "wall street journal" editorial page on trade than donald trump. >> make that argument to me.

>> i don't have to make that argument, because it is so simple -- for you to sit there and tell me to make the argument, you're just being argumentati argumentative. >> no, i'm not. >> she would be closer to the "wall street journal" editorial page on intervention. >> let's talk about it. >> ton trade. >> let's talk about her record on foreign policy. let's talk about her record on foreign policy. she was wrong on putin, wrong on the reset. she ignored the green revolution in iran. said nothing while -- >> closer to the "wall street journal" editorial -- >> -- in the streets. >> closer to the "wall street journal" editorial -- >> let me make the argument. she totally misread the arab spring. in benghazi, she sent her friend in, then lied to the mother about it. she let china walk all over us in the south china sea. she armed the rebels in syria. and then when the president said no, didn't resign in protest. she's been an absolute disaster on foreign policy. that's her record. >> she has supported intervention time and time again as secretary of state in just about every situation that's come up before her. >> is that a principled position to say, you know, president

obama, you need to enforce the red line, or else none of our -- >> i'm also talking about -- >> -- or else none of our allies -- >> -- i'm talking about libya. you can go ahead and say whatever you want to say. the fact of the matter is you know that hillary clinton is more than an interventionist -- >> you haven't made a single counter-argument to me. >> yes, i have. >> no, you haven't. you've made a deck larative at e same time. >> you're talking to yourself. >> leaving from behind in libya. no force left behind. >> i'm sorry. >> why don't you go over there and talk to yourself and -- >> supported the iran nuclear deal. >> it's unbelievable. >> where's the counter argument. >> it's in the history books, mary. >> you're not making an argument. >> because i start to talk and you interrupt. i hope you've enjoyed your debate with yourself. >> and you keep inviting me back, somehow. >> because we like you. >> we like you an awful lot, even though you're saying things you know just aren't true. >> nothing you've -- nothing i've said is false, not a single

counterargument. >> because you won't let anybody talk. so congratulations. >> no -- >> steve kornacki, thank you for being us. we greatly appreciate it. and rick tyler, thank you, as well. are you still there? >> i'm still here. good to be here. >> good to talk to you. >> by the way -- by the way, joe, you're right. she is inextricably tied to nafta, and she said she wants a million manufacturing jobs restored to the united states. that is precisely the amount of jobs that were lost in north carolina, ohio, and missouri since nafta. that's why she lost michigan, so she's in for a rough ride, i think, tonight. >> as i tried to say, nafta, gat, the world trade organization, just about every other trade deal that's come down the line until she started running for president. >> and she supported tpp very strongly. >> she supported it as secretary of state until she started running. she's been consistently free trade. i haven't given the opportunity to say that, but you were allowed to, so thank you for chiming in. >> so there might be some

similarities. >> there are a lot of similarities. possibly. >> i think both front-runners are anti-trade and i think that speaks volumes about what's happening in the country over the last seven years. >> starting tonight at 6:00 eastern time, msnbc kicks off its special coverage, breaking down primary results, turnout numbers and exit polls. still ahead this hour, we'll be checking with some of our correspondents at polling stations in illinois, ohio and missouri. stay with us. we'll be right back.

welcome back to a special edition of "afternoon joe." >> it's going to be a big night. >> a big, big night.

>> it's going to be so exciting. >> on both sides. you don't know what's going to happen in ohio. on the democratic side, hillary clinton should do very well in florida. but some of the other states might be a little tighter than expected. >> and joining us now, we have attorney and republican strategist, now an msnbc news, nbc political analyst, ben ginsburg. >> good to see you. we offered ben a cupcake. he said, my body is a temple. >> did mary get one? come on. magnolia. all right, we had quite a spirited conversation we're going to continue, but can we stop with some of it withe poll first? >> let's do. >> nbc's kate snow is at a polling station in springfield, illinois, and nbc's chris jansing live at a polling station in highland heights, ohio. kate, we'll start with you. important races for both parties in illinois. what are you hearing on the ground there? >> reporter: yeah. hey, mika and joe. this place is packed, actually. they're seeing bigger turnout here. we're in springfield, illinois. bigger turnout than they've seen in previous elections, really, anybody can remember. the place is the full.

they usually only have a few people here in the afternoon and they're getting ready for the bigger rush, after people get off of work. this is a primarily majority republican county, so we're talking to a lot of trump supporters here, but, remember, that ted cruz was all over the state of illinois yesterday. his last stop was late last night, right here in springfield. and he made the argument that donald trump had contributed in the past to rahm emanuel, up in chicago, and to rod blagojevich, who, of course, was the convicted ex-governor of this state. so trying to tie donald trump to them. but we're talking to a lot of trump supporters here. i talked to a couple of voters on the way out. take a listen. so this is your first time actually voting in a primary? >> correct. >> and? >> kasich. i've worked in government a long time and i'm very impressed with what i've seen from john kasich. >> he's not polling so well here in illinois. >> true. >> why do you think that is? >> i think his campaign got off to a slow start. hopefully he's gaining some momentum.

hopefully tonight is a big night for him in ohio and hopefully he gets to move forward from there. >> did you vote for a change? >> yes. >> do you mind me asking? >> trump. >> you too? >> yeah. >> how come? >> well, i think it's because he's, i think, ready for the people. i mean, he's going to be helping the people more. instead of all the other ones that get paid for backing up, you know, supporters and all that. he's using his own money, which i like that. >> reporter: now, on the democratic side here in illinois, people are wondering if that could be a tight race, too. hillary clinton, bernie sanders, they've been all over the state. hillary clinton outspending sanders a little bit here. interestingly, guys, i talked to one voter on her way out, she's a democrat, and she voted for kasich, because she wanted to stop donald trump. people can grab whatever ballot they want, it's open here, so they can grab whatever they want and cast it right over there. >> now to chris jansing in ohio.

what are you hearing there, chris? >> reporter: crossover is a huge story here, as people come in and they can take those ballots. this is a place that is republican. you would expect it to vote two to one republican. today, it's about three to one. 75% of the people voting here are taking that republican ballot. now, many of those democrats who have decided they're going to cross over, we don't know who they're voting for, but people we talk to outside gave us a very clear trend. take a listen. >> i'm a registered democrat and i'm going to vote for john kasich. >> because? >> i want john kasich to get to the convention. >> is this an anti-trump vote on your part? >> it would be. >> why? >> oh, alphabetical, chronological, numerical, how do you want me to start? there's just too many reasons. we came together as a family to say, let's vote for john kasich, shall we. >> the whole family? >> i'm thinking. it's still private. we respect each other's voting booth, but -- >> i voted for john kasich.

>> why? >> more as an anti-trump vote. >> are you a republican? >> no. >> so you crossed over -- >> crossed over. >> what made you feel so strongly you need to do that? >> i just don't want trump involved. i think he's dangerous. >> we heard the same thing from more people. and a lot of the folks i talked to in the kasich campaign were hoping for this, hoping that some of marco rubio's voters would come over. the question really is, what might it mean on the democratic side. will it give some momentum to either of those candidates. as you know, this is a critical state on both sides, joe and mika. >> and we are watching. chris jansing, thank you so much. we'll see you bright and early tomorrow morning hosting "way too early." you're a saint. thank you very much for doing that. a lot of crossover. on both sides. >> no doubt there's going to be a lot of crossover tonight. ben, i want to ask you something i tried to ask mary. it wasn't a success. >> you'll have luck. >> i'll ask you. i'll try you. so when you look at foreign policy. you have donald trump basically

saying, turn syria over to putin. of course, putin doesn't want it. et cetera, et cetera. you have in hillary clinton someone who supported regime change in iraq. she supported regime change in libya. she was reported to be the most hawkish in syria, the most hawkish in afghanistan, among all of barack obama's foreign policy team, and yet, you have donald trump, who is -- seems to be an isolationist. what kind of decision is that for republicans, as they look forward to the possibility of a trump versus clinton general election? >> it's a tough one. this is a scrambled deck. you heard that in all to have the interviews out of the polling, that your reporters were doing. it's incredible cross -- >> isn't that crazy? >> across party lines. >> well, it speaks to donald trump's candidacy, as a phenomenon that's just plain different from anything we've seen. so you do have dogs and cats sleeping together, to an extent, and you do have different people

coming -- >> and can i ask you, do you have any doubt on the issue of trade, whether wall street is going to be more comfortable, say, a president hillary clinton or a president donald trump, given everything that they've said, publicly. >> i mean, i think they're going to be more comfortable with a hillary clinton presidency. she's been very successful at getting lots of contributions from them over the years. why would that change now. >> so what do republicans do, if tonight passes by and it looks like donald trump is moving towards said nomination. >> so what will be interesting is, which donald trump shows up at the convention and then at the general election. you have the donald trump who's increasing tupperorn out by lead bounds. that is good. we've always talked about how turnout is too low, participation rates are too low. he's doing well on that. on the other hand, if the way he gets there, but increasing participation, is a divisive,

sort of, isolationist message, that's really tough for republicans, and where you'll see that play out is how it impacts the senate candidates and the contested congratulational candidates. >> no doubt. coming up, marco rubio isn't just facing a potential loss in his home state, but also big questions about the status of his political future. we're going to dig into what the republican party looks like after the election, next.

so we're sitting here, trying to figure everything out. ben and mary. mary, have you figured this out yet? >> well, we were talking right before we went to the break about where donald trump does well. he does well in economically depressed areas. so that raises the question, can he break that mold? and what does that mean when he goes into new york or to new jersey? >> it's a really interesting

setup. april 19th, new york, proportional by congressional districts. obviously, a very diverse state. the rest of the mid-atlantic states, which go a week later, also pretty diverse. not many big winner-take-all states in there. >> and you look at what you just said, mary. you look at upstate new york, that's had economic challenges for decades now. actually, trump, it's -- >> trump should be strong there. >> trump, i think, "the new york times" take a look at where he was the strongest, upstate new york and alabama. >> so, you do have some regions that -- >> california -- >> economics. >> we might be talking about california. >> california has more delegates than any other state. only 13 of them go to the statewide winner. the rest all district by district. >> another question we're following is plamarco rubio's campaign, what will happen? joining us now, mark leibovich. >> i'm telling you, it was a

scene almost right out of "almost famous." he was riding in the plane with rubio and it was bumping. >> mark wrote about the end of marcomentum. it reads, "the last time i saw marco rubio in person, he seemed to be on the verge of inheriting the charred republican earth. it was february 22nd, the day before the nevada caucuses. we were aboard rubio's campaign plane. suddenly, the plane hit a patch of nasty turbulence. i was fairly sure we were all about to die. it's just a little turbulence, rubio reassured me. it's just like a campaign. i've been thinking about this choppy joy ride over nevada as the final days of marcomentum, such as it ever was now appear to be at hand. even in likely defeat, you can still see a bright future for rubio in the gop. the problem is, no one has any clue what the republican party will look like after trump is done with it. if the gop needed an autopsy after 2012, will it demand a cremation after 2016? >> and of course, mark, you leave the point out where, as

you all think you're going to die, you stand up and make a confession. we'll talk about that later on, while everybody's singing "tiny dancer." okay, so what's interesting here is, in 2012, after the race, we went to all of these symposiums, and all the conservatives are saying, this is what we have to do in 2016. and everybody had it planned out so well, and the rnc had all their best-laid plans, and all of it has seemed to play into donald trump's hands. >> donald trump had other ideas and so did the republican electorate. that's the amazing thing. this is actually -- the autopsy post 2012 is a classic example of republican elites, republican, you know, wise men and women getting together and figuring out what the prescription was, and just getting it wrong, as so many prognosticators have gotten everything about this election wrong, to this point. so, yeah, rubio looked on paper, at least, in 2013, 2014, like the future of the republican party. you know, someone forgot to

consult the voters of the republican party, apparently. >> i think "time" magazine called him the republican savior. >> that was a long time ago. >> you should probably talk to a republican voter first. no, i'm saying. that's a mistake we always make. >> mark, it's willie. the argument has been put forth in recent weeks that marco rubio perhaps should have gotten out of the race before florida, because if he suffers a big loss in his home state, it damages his brand so much that going forward, his political career may be ruined. what does he view as his future, if not winning in florida and somehow going ahead and getting the nomination here, if he has to get out of the race, how does he look at his future politically? >> i think, again -- first of all, he would say, right now, if he were sitting here, he would say, you know, my future is i'm going to win tonight and we're going to -- you know, we're going to go on to utah tomorrow. >> yeah, we got it, the baghdad bob stuff. we've heard it all before. >> he has "the new york times" cover, which can be his dewey defeats truman cover about the

end of marcomentum. on some version of the republican future, he could still have a very, very bright, you know, opportunity to run again and maybe be successful. but, again, who knows what this thing is going to look like, not only now or in a few weeks from now, but after it's all over. i mean, is there some kind of third party candidate that just splits the party? you know, does the republican party, you know, at some point, just rally around trump and he's going to have to play by trump's rules? no one really knows what the party is going to look like, so no one really knows what environment marco rubio will be operating in, going forward, or anyone for that matter. >> hey, mark. i bet there's a snazzy's office where you are. are crow in new york city? >> this is "the new york times" washington bureau. i've never done a hit from here before. frankly, we just had this renovated, so this is a brand new experience for me. i hope i'm doing okay. i've been very nervous. >> please tell carolyn and everybody, congratulations. very, very snazzy. can you come on tomorrow? i would love to talk to you some

more. >> sure, i'm around. i'm at your service. >> you've got to be from that location. >> right there with the same shirt on. >> with the same shirt? i have a dress shirt that's so wrinkled, it's in my drawer, as most of us reporters do. but you don't want to see that. >> no. sleep in it tonight and we'll talk to you tomorrow morning. >> like joe does. >> i've been in this for three weeks. protesters shut down a trump rally in chicago. today, they cast their votes for who they would like to see become the next president. we go live to chicago, ahead. plus, chris matthews will join us from ohio. >> oh, that'll be fun.

we are back live here on "afternoon joe." chris matthews joins us in a moment. but first let's turn to msnbc's chris hayes who's at a polling location in chicago. >> chris, how are you doing, buddy? in the city that never makes news.

>> yeah, did lately. >> reporter: i managed to be relocated from miami to chicago in march. so, you can imagine -- i downgraded weather wise. >> good move. >> i had to buy a coat before i came on air. but it's a pretty exciting day here right now. i mean, illinois is neck and neck on the democratic side. it's very uncertain on the republican side. on the democratic side, you've got polling showing clinton up and polling showing sanders up. and what has emerged here is pretty fascinating. you have rahm emanuel, the mayor of chicago, who was re-elected just a short time ago, being very unpopular in this city and him becoming a lightning rod in the race between sanders and clinton. sanders has been using rahm emanuel, running ads in chicago about his mayoralty. bragging that he's not been endorsed by him. saying if rahm emanuel tried to endorse him, he would reject the endorsement. and layer on top of that, you have a fascinating grassroots movement here, trying to unseat the prosecutor. that, of course, alvarez, the

woman who held on to that laquan mcdonald investigation for over a year until the tape was released and she announced the indictment. we just talked to t woman who's running against anita alvarez. she's galvanized this grassroots left. the same folks at that rally on friday night protesting. the same folks who have been calling and canvassing for bernie sanders and this insurgent. this huge culmination of rahm emanuel grassroots activism playing out on election day here. >> chris, you are sitting in the middle of what may be one of the most fascinating races. obviously, bernie sanders overperformed so much in michigan. it's going to be fascinating to see if he does the same thing there. so we'll be watching you all night. thank you, chris. >> joining us now from cleveland, ohio, the host of msnbc's "hardball," chris matthews. >> chris matthews, this is like christmas eve, baby. there are so many story lines here. we've been talking a lot, obviously, about trump in florida, also trump in ohio. but hillary clinton, bernie sanders, in the state where you

are. bernie shocked everybody in michigan. do you think we may have a similar surprises in ohio, in illinois? what's going to happen tonight? >> well, ohio has been a state, in addition, of course, to new york and california, that's fascinated me since i was a kid. i don't know why, ohio is fascinating. i guess one reason is it's so american, it's so representative of the whole country. it's a state, as you know, joe and mika, you can't win the country unless you win ohio, if you're a republican, for example. you have to win it. i guess it's like, you can't win the presidency of if you're a democrat without pennsylvania. they're very close states that way. so i would think the question for hillary tonight is that very question. but the other thing is the polling. the polling was great for her going into last tuesday in michigan and it's pretty good for her now. but it's not as great as it was. the other factor was, it was very close, the result last week. it wasn't like she got blown away. it wasn't at all, it was a couple of points. this is a great one to watch tonight. i can tell you that the trade is

a problem. last night on our show when i interviewed her, she was saying she's not an anti-trade person like bernie is. she isn't against trade, bernie is. she argues that we're only 5% of the world economy, we have to trade. so she is more moderate, if you will, on that issue. and that's not where a lot of democrats like sherrod brown from out here and people like marcy captor. the people that represent these states, like ohio, are very anti-trade. they just are. that tells you something. >> chris, it's willie. go to the other side, if you would, on the republican front. what's your feel right now? i was there last week, as well. i got the sense that some people in that state are a little jarred and surprised that donald trump is either leading, tied, or just behind their popular governor in that state. >> look, the pattern is very similar for both front-runners, hillary and -- they both look good in florida, both look good in north carolina. but then they have problems. both, i think, are going to have problems in missouri, which is historically an anti-trade state. in fact, back in 1956, the only

state in the union to go from supporting eisenhower to going to stevenson in '56, because they're anti-trade, they just are. that's the nature of the state. then you've got ohio and illinois. you mentioned the mayor situation, a bad situation in illinois. but ohio, again, is the problem area. because, you know, i think hillary clinton will have a real problem there, like she had in -- i think she's going to have a problem in missouri, a problem in ohio. she might win illinois, she might win ohio, but watch missouri for both these guys. trump and hillary could both have big problems in missouri. >> chris matthews, thank you very much. we will be watching your coverage all night long. >> thank you, chris. >> we always enjoy it. we'll be right back with much more in just a moment.

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okay, mary kissel, ben ginsburg, thank you very much. >> so predictions, what's -- >> final thoughts. >> i think the polls will probably be right. i think you're going to see trump win florida and kasich pull it out in ohio. >> you think? >> and what does that mean? >> i think that means it grinds on. >> it goes on? >> it grinds on for another several weeks, looking at the convention. >> and marco rubio going to utah? >> that's the latest news on the wire. i don't see the wisdom in that, but that's what he says he's going to do. >> maybe -- >> get some more delegates. it's all at about the delegates tonight. >> ben, you say he's going to stay in the race, marco rubio,

even if he gets wiped out. >> i don't know if he will, but the reason he should stay in the race if he wants to deny donald trump the nomination, his delegates will not be unbound. they'll be pledged to him at the convention if he stays in the race, smaller pool for donald trump to get his majority. >> so what does he have to do? does he have to actively campaign to keep those delegates or does he just say, i'm going to the convention, and then just sort of tool around? different rules in every state, but by and large, if you have an active campaign, as a candidate defines it, the delegates are still bound to you, if you can get your name put in nomination in cleveland. >> on the first vote? >> on the first vote. >> but they're not bound after the first vote. that's the key. >> but either of druonald trump delegates are bound on the second ballot. >> joe, predictions tonight? >> i think tonight will be really exciting, not just on the republican side, but on the democratic side. i think there are more unknowns going into tonight, outside of florida, than any night. we've been talking a lot about donald trump.

if bernie sanders overperforms, even to a fraction of the way he overperformed a week ago, this is going to be a very exciting night on the democratic side. and you may see bernie sanders pick up some very big wins. >> and he's got a real chance in the three states that are not florida and ohio. >> he does. >> he could do well tonight. >> that does it for "afternoon joe." that was fun. >> that was really great. thank you guys, for coming out. >> we'll be back here tomorrow morning at 6:00 a.m. for "morning joe" with full analysis of tonight's big contests. up next, a first look at the exit polls from today's primaries is just moments away. chuck todd kicks off msnbc's election night coverage -- >> can we keep doing this? >> -- straight ahead. >> can we go another five hours? >> no, it's chuck's turn.

good evening. i'm chuck todd here in new york. here we go again, folks. welcome to msnbc's special live coverage of tonight's do-or-die primary contest. i'm calling it separation tuesday. a lot of people are going to call it other stuff. but at any minute, we'll have our first look at the early exit polls in tonight's five key contests. every one of the five have something interesting to offer. there isn't one you want to just blow off. it will be our first glimpse into the mood and makeup of these crucially important electorates. that includes, of course, ohio, probably the biggest prize of the night, where all eyes are on john kasich, in a state that the anti-trump forces must win. and we are less than 2 1/2 hours from polls closing in the buckeye state. we'll also start getting results from north carolina at that hour. and just an hour later, it's florida, illinois, and missouri. hundreds of delegates in play. an historicht