monoportraits for donald trump or legal disputes on his businesses, but when did he stop being a charity and start being things for trump? that was two years after the foundation began, it gave a $7 grant to the boy scouts when it cost $7 to register for the year. i don't know if it was donald trump, but that's what you are supposed to use your charity for. >> there is so much more. we will try to post links on my twitter to today's story about the painting and the second story about all of it. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> that will do it for me at this hour. we will see you here tomorrow afternoon after the cubs win at 3:00 eastern time. we pick up the coverage with a deep dive into polling. >> a bold prediction there.

thank you for that. i'm with the cubs too. live in new york, days to go. week away until the election topping the agenda right now. there is a new national poll out there. at least one of them has donald trump ahead. his campaign said they are turning the tables. >> the momentum is on our side. the latest polls have donald trump leading nationwide and the race for president of the united states. >> but is that celebration premature? we will go over to the big board and take a deep dive into the path for 270 a week out. hillary clinton trying to bait donald trump again. bringing out alicia machado, the beauty queen once insulted by donald trump on the campaign trail a few minutes ago. >> it is really clear that he

does not respect women. he just judges us on our looks. >> trump's campaign manager said it is hillary clinton who is playing defense. the campaign news they are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to shore up blue states in the final days. we will show you what's going on there and a big day tomorrow in arizona. both campaigns are going to be on the ground with events there. this has become a critical battle ground state. chris jansing talking to clinton staffers on the frontlines. we begin with our top story just where does this race stand? seven days away and a slew of polls that can be confusing. let me show you what i mean. do we have the new polls?

going once, twice, we don't. let me tell you what they say. we have three new polls out in the last 24 hours. our own survey monkey nbc news poll shows a six-point lead for hillary clinton. there it is. also a six-point lead for hillary clinton in the reuters poll. this is the one trump supporters have been talking about that has clinton supporters worrying. the abc news poll has donald trump ahead by a point. it's still not working. donald trump is tweeting about this triumphantly today. here's the interesting thing. donald trump just two weeks ago was talking about this exact same poll and he was calling it rigged. two weeks ago this had him down 12 and now up by a point. what happened this this poll that handle has donald trump ahead? here's what the pollsters who took this said.

enthusiasm. what they have seen over the last few days is more enthusiasm among trump voters to go out thero election day, rain, shine, snow, sleet, and hail. vote for donald trump. they are seeing more enthusiasm for trump than clinton. you can see in the past few elections, enthusiasm has been an issue. you think back to 2008, a lot more enthusiasm for obama and a little bit more for obama. they are saying in this one poll that there is more enthusiasm for voters to vote for trump than among clinton voters to vote for her. however as we say, that is just one poll. with all the different polls coming from the different directions, the best thing we can do is average them all together. when you do that, hillary clinton at the huff post with an average that is a six-point lead

in this race. we are still digesting that new s we will see if the attacks move these numbers. can we put the map up there? we can't. there is volatility in the race and one week to go with the candidates. we have casey hunt on the clinton beat. casey hunt is down there in florida where hillary clinton is still speaking. besieged looking into her e-mail situation again. looks like she is trying to bait

donald trump and brought out alicia machado and trump lost a week of his campaign to a fight he started with her. they are trying to get him to react again. >> i think that's probably right. they are trying to change the subject away from that fbi investigation and we know that hillary clinton doesn't plan to mention that at this stop or the other two in florida today. they got a new ad out talking about and that's a one-minute ad and we have seen her on stage talking about that already. we have gotten news that is supporting them. the super pac priorities usa that has been the main super pac supporting clinton will spend seven figures on the air in

michigan and another seven figures in colorado. they have been up and down on the air as that state has kind of trended back and forth. they have thought for a while it was safe. that's the news if you will. they are going up there quite a bit donald trump has been more focused on the blue states. bernie sanders surprised hillary clinton in the primaries and he will be campaigning on her behalf in michigan in the coming days. we should note that some of this is clearing the money out of the account. it doesn't make any sense my sources say to leave anything in the bank for an election that will be over in eight days. that's a part of this. the clinton campaign is going up in new states of virginia, colorado, new mexico. trying to shore up the blue

states that haven't been and the new mexico we have. they are saying the same thing. and spend it before it's too late to spent it. they don't want to leave anything on the field. signs of nervousness and potential expansion on the map. ohio and pennsylvania and that's where the focus is expanding in the final week. fascinating news. they can get the board fired up and we will take you through where the potential vulnerabilities are at the trump campaign and what the campaign is trying to do there. we will show you on the map later if we can.

meanwhile that was the story from the clinton side of things. his attacks today were on obamacare and health care. katie is on the ground and donald trump will be headed there. katie, interesting. we just saw alicia machado and hillary clinton seems like an eternity and back in the first debate, we brought it up and donald trump could not resist. getting into a fight with her.

i spoke with a source close to the campaign and he acknowledged that he steps on his own message. he needed to tamper is down and not say something outrageous and take away from hillary clinton's bad news cycle. we haven't had him say something so outrageous. he raised the bar on what qualifies as an outrageous statement and he has been sticking to the message in terms of how donald trump sticks to the message and talking about obamacare and the saying that they rigged the election. one week until the election. if he is able to do that, they

can gain ground and not necessarily win because it's a big hurdle, but he will get moderate republicans and the republican that have not been comfortable to change their mind and feel more comfortable a& sh might have to face an indictment and i will have to vote for donald trump and not an empty candidate. they need to if they can do that they have a better chance. it is a big hurdle. we saw john kasich write in in ohio. that underscores the deep rift in the republican party that there is. even disdain for hillary clinton can't mend. >> wisconsin is one of the blue states that donald trump has to

win the toss ups and find one surprise in the blue states. that's one of the states his campaign is trying to look at. thank you for that. for more i want to bring in chris collins and a congressman from new york. he was among the first and may have been the first member of congress to endorse donald trump. he is nodding. my memory is not that bad. appreciate it. i want to play because we talked so much about that name. alicia machado is back. do we have this, guys? we dot it. i want to play what she had to say. take a listen. >> it's really clear that he does not respect women. he just judges us on our looks. >> that was just a few minutes ago. i imagine donald trump hears

that and feels that's unfair and doesn't like it. how should he respond? >> first of all, was she talking about donald trump or bill clinton? i'm just joking. what i would say is donald trump knows actions speak louder than words. the way he treated women in top positions, i am confident he moved beyond this and will not take the bait. no doubt she led him down the rabbit hole at a couple of debates and he learned from that. he will talk about obama scare. 1 securing our borders and bringing our jobs back. he will be talking about the issues and let the press handle the e-mail scandal. if this is a referendum on hillary, donald trump wins. if it's on donald trump, he may not win. in both cases, that's what it

comes down to. i hear about the narrow path that trump has, i think today hillary clinton has a more narrow path in that all donald trump has to do to win this election if he wins ohio, north carolina and florida and he is on a path to do that, if he picks off any one of these states, virginia, pennsylvania, michigan, wisp cons in, colorado, new mexico, he is the president. with ohio, north carolina and florida he is at 253 electoral college. he will win nevada and he is ahead in iowa. >> you have got a few and i wish i had the map here because i love going through these. you have a couple of big ifs. you are assuming arizona and polling we have seen out of arizona said that looks like a toss up and you are assuming nevada and you know as well as i do the early vote indicators looked favorable for the

democrats. maybe it changes on election day, but the polls have looked at even at best. there are a lot of ifs. >> i give you that nevada is the if with one increase. we have arizona, but i think the money speaks. the fact that hillary clinton is spending seven figure sums in the blue states said she is scared to death. if she wasn't, she would be powering the money into one state. north carolina. she defeats donald trump, i don't see a clear path. if she beats him in floater, he has an all but impossible path. her money is going into colorado and new mexico said she has a lot of worries or she would be putting all those dollars into

north carolina and florida. >> you are confident for the last week that donald trump is going to stay on the issues as you define the issues he should be talking about. this campaign began in june of 2017 and we are talking about can he for one week out of the campaign be yped enough not to say something off topic and have a message for one week out of a campaign that has gone for more than one year. does that say anything to you about his focus and discipline and about his temperament that we have to have that conversation? >> what it tells me is he is not a career politician like hillary clinton who has focus groups to decide what she is going to say and delivers them to a teleprompter.

he is a guy's guy and he wasn't using teleprompters at that point in time. he is a real human being, when you insult him, he punches back and the clinton campaign got under his skin. he reacted in the debates. i pish they had taken his telephone away. he calls his own shots and doesn't like people insulting him or taking swings at him so develop you learn in the political arena and i think he is there now and all we care about is that he stays on message the next days, a referendum on hill row clinton, donald trump wins. >> a republican from new york joining us. >> buffalo it looks like from the backdrop. >> it is buffalo. >> there it is. the nickel city. we are seeing the impact of

director comey's letter, clinton's lead may be expanding in some battle ground states. of course still this is early relative to the announcement coming out lasts from the. we will break down the numbers and pop am round out an all-star lineup for surrogates including her opponent in the primaries. >> i understand that a lot of people r discouraged about this campaign and a lot of them will sit it out. don't you be one of them. the stakes are much too high. this is not a personality contest. >> bernie standers at one of the his greatest triumphs and he is going to join me. going to join me. stay with us.

the u.s.those of us whoof freedserved in the military are very proud of that. i believe very, very strongly in our country and what we stand for. i went to iraq in 2004 to fight for freedom. for generations, our troops have sacrificed for our freedoms.

one of the most important things we do is vote - to protect that freedom. i'm tom steyer. let's make the people we're so proud of, proud of us. please. vote. vote. vote. vote.

>> pasigns of tightening polls and going to defense looking to lockdown the blue wall and fight off a last minute push by donald trump. the clinton campaign buying ads to air in colorado, michigan, virginia and new mexico. all blue states from the last election. kellyanne conway tweeting that someone seems nervous. they pulled out of colorado and virginia months ago. they are on defense. that's the trump campaign on the news. let's show you what's going on. hillary clinton is in a reasonably good position in states totalling 272 electoral votes. great news.

you are over 270. you have to hold on to that. if donald trump -- and this is a huge if, i can't stress that enough. if donald trump were to win the states that look like toss ups, that wasn't supposed to happen. if he were to win north carolina, florida, ohio, we should have a scoreboard,but the point i'm trying to make, if donald trump were to win everything that is a toss up right now, the electoral college scoreboard would be 272 for clinton and 266 for donald trump, donald trump would still need another state. the trump campaign sent him to michigan. that's a state nobody has been talking about. he will need a new blue state. they sunday him to colorado and new mexico. he needs to pull off a surprise. he needs a surprise in a blue

state. that one is a lost cause. the clinton campaign with a week to go, they will try to lockdown the blue states just in case. that's the bottom line for trump. win the toss upstates and he also needs one surprise in a blue state. that could be an awful lot for him to ask. bernie sanders, the primary rival is on the trail for hillary clinton for new hampshire and in maine as well. bringing in tad divine, a senior adviser for the bernie sanders campaign. talked to you a lot in the primary season. let me ask you about that. michigan and colorado and virginia and states that we thought were off the map. what does that say to you that the clinton campaign is on the

air? >> they are running a smart campaign. it's only important to shut downstates to light upstates. they have the resources to do both at once. they haven't communicated with them and they will be able to use that as a fire wall. it's a smart move. >> let me ask you about news from the hacked e-mails with the chairman of the clinton campaign. some of these e-mails that came out stirred up hard feelings among the supporters. bernie sanders supporters who felt that at the time the democratic national committee had their thumb on it. one here is the interim chair and turns out she was an on air commentator and had been providing questions at least to the clinton campaign for the debates. her relationship with cnn and you defended her with the first hints have come out.

subsequent e-mails involving another debate in flint. let me ask you about the situation. to the supporter who is saying this is proof they had their thumb on the scale for hillary clinton, and the dnc did have their thumb on the scale. they sued them to get the voter files back. i was in touch with donna and i was in constant touch with her. if bernie sanders was the nominee and the rugs had hacked my e-mail instead of john's, we would be reading notes between donna and i. this was taken out of context. she was fair and did a good and honest job and i really don't have complains about donna brazil in the primary process. >> how many hard feelings are there? you talk about the bernie sanders supporters. bernie sanders was calling for and still is calling for a political revolution in the

democratic party instead of bernie sanders dominated for president and somebody who is part of the political establishment. that has been a hard adjustment. >> sure, but bernie sanders as you said in the clip you played understands what is at stake. the differences between donald trump and hillary clinton are unbelievably big. bernie sanders understands we can't have a president like donald trump who believes global warming is a hoax by the chinese. they need to make obamacare that extended health care work better for people. these are the big ideas that separate trump and hillary clinton. bernie knows what's at stake and that's why he is campaigning so vigorously for her. >> one of the top guys from the campaign. thanks if are revisiting it.

>> where they are now with the review. her e changed husband anthony wiener. battle ground arizona. >> new voters will make the difference. people thought of arizona as a red state, but that's the past. this is a deep purple state. >> that's the mayor of phoenix who is a democrat and he is optimistic about what is going to happen and what already has been happening. they have been voting for a while. we will go to arizona where nearly a million people have cast ballots. hey! i've made plans for later in case this date doesn't go well. same here. wouldn't it be great if everyone said what they meant? the citi double cash card does. earn 1% cash back when you buy, and 1% as you pay. double means double.

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saying if he becomes president, he will immediately convene a special session of congress to repeal the affordable care act. if president obama's signature law is not replaced, it will destroy health care forever. house speaker paul ryan revealing that he has already vote and cast an early ballot and voted for donald trump. he visits his home state later this evening. ryan said he would not appear with the nominee. jurors in the trial of two former allies of new jersey governor chris christie charged with plotting that lane closure at the george washington bridge. they sent several questions to the judge today. one of them asked request bill barone and bridget ann kelly can be convicted if they don't believe the closings were meant to punish the mayor and the judge told the jurors they could

convict regardless of the pair's motive. bill cosby spending today in a pennsylvania courtroom as they argue over key issues in the sexual assault case against him. cosby's lawyers want to keep potentially damaging testimony from a previous lawsuit out of this trial and also to stop 13 other accusers from testifying. the comedian is charged with sexually assaulting a woman in 2005. the national transportation safety board is trying to piece together what led to a deadly early morning next baltimore. people were killed when the collision involving a school bus, commuter bus, and a car. no children were on the school bus, thankfully, at the time. the fbi investigation continuing into the e-mails that may be connected to hillary clinton's personal server on a computer belonging to huma abedin.

the election looms days away, but no progress report from the fbi. pete williams has the latest for us. we talked to you 24 hours ago and there was some optimism we might hear before the election. what's the status a day later? >> considerably less optimism on that score. the problem is they don't know housing this is going to take. it is taking longer than the initial thought over the weekend. the thinking was this would go fast. it's not going fast and not because of technical problems, but it's taking a long time to church through the e-mails and do all the sorting and analysis that has to be done by the automated systems. all the experts thought it would go fast and it has not gone quickly. the thing is there is no way to know how long it will take.

they don't know how long it's going to take and can't say whether they will give us a progress report before the election. >> the election is seven days away and millions voting as we speak. thanks for the update and now back to the road to 270, specifically the battle for arizona. this is usually a red state, but this year very much in play. polls show a tight race. a very, very slide lead. this is a state democrats almost never win. the last time they picked it up, they have to go become to harry truman in 1948. two reasons it is close in arizona. latino voters and mormons, nearly one in three are latino and 6% are mormons. mormons are normally a bedrock republican constituency and donald trump has alienated them.

he could be struggling with mormon voters in arizona. sending some of the biggest stars to the state and including michelle obama and bernie sanders. they put two million on the air into ads. hillary clinton herself will be in arizona tomorrow night for a rally. chris jansing beat her there. he is in phoenix and this is the latest stop on the battle ground america tour. chris jansing, we had a couple of states where we didn't think you or anybody else would be a week out. there we are in arizona and they are voting out there too. >> yeah. you totally busted me and here's the stats that i know you are looking for. democrats outperform republicans on getting the registrations. so far on early voting, they are under performing the republicans so they hope to make up the difference with people like chantal. you are volunteering 20 hours a week. if you say it's not hot, it is hot in phoenix.

why 20 hours for free for hillary clinton? >> because i believe in her and loved her since i was a little girl. >> you have been excited to do it for her. i will let you go to the door. not only is she making sure that they have the early ballot because this is an early ballot state, but down ballot states. it's a very, very tough climb for her against john mccain. people thought he was going to have a tough run, but not happening. not only will hillary clinton win here, but she believes she can win and she told me why. >> i flipped two congressional districts from red to blue based on turn out. every single time i won a tough race it has been predicted i would lose. we turn out voters and we know how to do that. >> how much has the clinton campaign helped you and other down ballot candidates?

>> we built a ground game never expects that they would be in arizona. we had the infrastructure already in place. >> so as you well know, i have been in so many of these battle ground states, the intensity here is unlike anything i have experienced. to the point where when i was talking to the democrats, you mentioned all the folks who are coming here. hillary clinton and tim kaine doing a speech in spanish and targeting a lot of folks who live in this neighborhood. the democrats are saying they think they are in so much trouble they are bringing in mitt romney. both sides spinning a bit and both sides truly believing that with ground game they put in place, it is different in many ways for both of them. certainly in the state of arizona. they can win, but when you talk to them privately, it's too close to call.

that's what the polls show. less than one percent separates hillary clinton from donald trump. >> you said it's hot out there. everybody said it's a dry heat. are you saying there is nothing to that? >> you said this is comfortable for you. >> yeah. >> no, dry heat, i don't know what that means. i'm telling you that she is great and all the people on both sides have been great. when they say this is a nice day, they obviously didn't grow up in cleveland, ohio. this is hot. >> that's my instinct. heat is heat. chris jansing is there. >> your instinct is good as always. >> true northerners. up next, democrats trying to take over the senate. we will get to the most important number of the day. there have been changes on that front. you want to stay tuned for this. americans...

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the most important number and we are back at the big board. it failed on my twice today. let's see if the smoke starts coming out and we will try to see if it works. the number is four and the topic is the democrats. they don't just want the white house, but win control of the senate. that's where the number comes in. if hillary clinton wins the presidency, they need four seats in the senate battle ground and they said get the senate. advantage to the democrats that gets a net gain of four. interesting developments let's show you. let's flip four of the red states. the republican incumbent vary in battles. that looks like a likely pick up. they feel good and queasy about

what's happening in wisconsin being challenged by rus fine gold. maybe wisconsin is a little shaky. new polling out of a couple of states. number one is pennsylvania. trump is getting blown out and it's hard for pad toomey to hold on. that is a possibility and they are look at the state of new hampshire. a barn burner. the democratic governor letting over kelly ayotte by a point. donald trump said he had a shot in new hampshire. clinton has been leading.

this is one where clinton can get out to a healthy lead. democrats on offense in those states and one other we can turn out and in missouri, look at this. the republican incumbent is getting a challenge he did not see for the democrat. a dead even race there, but bad news for democrats on the map, this is a new one out in indiana, they caught they caught a break at the start of the cycle, the former senator and a household name in indiana, evan bayh, he had all sorts of issues and it is dead even with a week to go. certainly trending in the republican direction. this is one democrats are counting on. a lot will defend on how well hillary clinton will do.

do democrats get that prize they have been looking at and control of the u.s. senate. the most important number here today and the board didn't explode. stick with us. up next and more reaction with the latest poll and the batch of polling in the battle ground states. what it is revealing about the race just seven days away. our panel is next. (announcer vo) when you have type 2 diabetes, there's a moment of truth. and now with victoza® a better moment of proof. victoza® lowers my a1c and blood sugar better than the leading branded pill, which didn't get me to my goal. lowers my a1c better than the leading branded injectable. the one i used to take. and better than that diabetes pill i used to take. (jeff) victoza® works with your body to lower blood sugar in three ways--

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it's really clear that he does not respect women. he just judges us on our looks. >> alicia machado, former miss universe. you heard her name earlier and she was brought up in a debate and donald trump attacked her on twitter, a week long ensued. they are trying to bait donald trump into another one. bloomberg reporter and the host, days away. they would love to see what we just played. that's the last thing we heard.

wie the same token, aren't they so simplified and really going to move things. >> that's what i tried to figure out. the race has been stable in some ways and the bottom dropped out for a few days. let me ask you what you think. we are talking earlier with katie and donald trump, not talking in his speeches about the fbi. about the e-mail issue. whoever has a zero now has a tight script. today the subject was obamacare and they are keeping him away from the issues and keeping him away from the fbi. what the calculation there? >> they realized he has a tendency to trip and suck the oxygen out of a story that is good for him. the senior adviser in donald trump's campaign. their strategy is going to try to keep him off the story and

not talk about the story because it's going to get a lot of attention by itself. trump's campaign realizes in the final days, it's a good one for them and you know he has a tendance tow make counterproductive claims and turn the story into something about himself. that is it right now. can he do it? he did this in the past and got days and the republicans are moving in his direction. on a considerable level, in polls they show the race fluctuating by as much as 13 points that is a bit of an outliar. >> is there any give in the electorate and how much is everybody's mind is made up?

that's one of the things i figure out. the event last friday with the fbi saying we are looking at more e-mails and the question of the coverage of that and the clinton response and the trump response. all the noise in the air and how it affects the race. we have to take the temperature thursday and friday to see it. >> it's not just the one poll. most showed a little movement because of the headline touted as a bombshell and after the facts pour in, it is much vaguer than the headline would indicate. we should have priced into the the fact that republicans were going to go home. the experts said the third and fourth party candidatings would decline. there is a gender gap that hasn't changed much. even republicans are coming home educated republicans and female republicans. to the extent that trump needs to win. >> the message that donald trump is trying to stick to. the issue of obamacare in

pennsylvania. >> we will be able to immediately repeal and replace obamaca obamacare. have to do it. i will ask congress to convene a special session so we can repeal and replace. it will be such an honor for me, for you, and for everybody this this country. obamacare has to be replaced. and we will do it and we will do it very, very quickly. it is a catastrophe. if we don't repeal and replace obamacare, we will destroy american health care forever. it's one of the single most important reasons why we must win. >> mike brings up the issue of republicans coming home and seeing a little bit of that in the polls right now. this issue of obamacare with the premium increases and the issue

of e-mails and the fbi coming out a few days ago. the down ballot candidates and the ones who have been shunning donald trump in many cases may be in the home stretch of the campaign and they have an ability to show common cause that didn't exist before. >> mike is right that the trend was moving in the sense that republicans were already moving to donald trump before the comey news came out. a lot of people expected that this would happen. that was in a way priced in, but i think the fact that so many of these senate races are so close, if donald trump closes the gap, a number of these republican senate candidates can catch a tail wind into the final stretch. there were races in wisconsin and indiana that democrats thought were pretty much locked up and all of a sudden they tightened. there is a race in missouri that they should have had in the bag. one point down in a poll today. there is a lot of uncertainty

and the consequences of that may or may not be particularly significant for the prospects of legislation, but they could be absolutely enormous for the supreme court. there is a vacancy and three justices who will be 78 or older as of election day and if republicans control the chamber, they have the ability if they choose to block any hillary clinton nominee and they are talking about that. the nominations for the judiciary ask all federal courts down and her cabinet could hang in the balance depending on what happens with the senate. >> thanks to both of you. over to hampton pearson for the market wrap. >> hey, steve. markets closing lower today and the dow falling and the s&p off by 14 and the nasdaq losing 35 points. that's it from cnbc first in business worldwide. american express open cards can help you take on a new job,

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that does it for this hour. mtp daily starts now. good evening. i'm chuck todd in washington. welcome to a big "mtp daily" tonight, gridlock alert. why election day might be the beginning and not the end. it makes the likelihood of gridlock getting worse. plus, actions speak louder than poll numbers. it could signal a surprising shift in the