>> tonight, the massive stakes of the special election in alabama. >> we've got to stop looking like idiots to the nation. >> would a roy moore win be an even bigger headache for republicans? can the democrat doug jones shock the world? >> get out and vote for roy moore! >> and the president pours gasoline on his own "me too" moment. >> it was a sexist smear attempting to silence my voice. >> the first results from election night in alabama when "all in" starts right now. >> one of our attorneys is a s7m >> good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes and it is a very big night. the polls have just at this moment closed in the special senate election in alabama at this hour, nbc news characterizing the race there as too early to call. with polls closed we can now begin tow8u returns. we don't really have any of those yet because they have literally polled -- polls closed

41 seconds ago. there's a lot to keep an eye on as the returns come in and we begin tonight with our first fresh exclusive look at the actual exit polls for the day. joining me to breakdown the latest batch of exit poll data hot off the presses, msnbc national political correspondent steve kornacki. as this happens at 5:00, i believe? now this is the apm, this is the full day what can you tell us? >> just in, the last five minutes, basically the headline from this, there's something in here that each campaign's going to like. let me take you through what we have. first of all this question of composition of the electorate. what did it look like today? the headline from these numbers is this. 30% of the electorate right now in the exit poll is black. we talked in the run-up to this race about how important to demok

made up 28% of the electorate.tç that was supposed to be the high watermark for democrats. good news was 26%, 27%. right now an exit poll seth 30% of this electorate is black tonight. so that is extremely good news for democrats. i say there's something in here for both parties. i want to go through and see obama in 2012 got 15%, got blown out in the state. the threshold was 30%, 35%, depending. this is a touch lower than the jones campaign wants to be seeing, 27%. break it down, he's losing double digits with college-educated white voters. that's the group he thought he could make inroads with.

so jones' campaign may be a little short in this exit poll with white voters. they also are doing a little better with black voters than they thought. so chris, as i said, there is something here for each campaign right now. >> obviously we don't have any returns yet. and one of the things that's happened in the run-up to this election is it's almost created a new kind of way of pollsters communicating. because it is such a black box to everyone. how the heck to model what this electorate looks like. these -- those two data points would seem to be in line with a kind of pollster average and pollster predictions of a close race. wherever that closeness ends up. >> yeah, and mean, again, if you looked at this right now, if you took each one of these in isolation, if we just looked at the white vote in this race, we'd be saying, okay, you know what this was a good night for roy moore. if you said to anybody coming into today that 30% of the electorate was going to be blacñ tonight, oh my god, that's

beyond best case scenario. so i think this is looking close right now. cliche, we'll see what happens when the returns come in. but you talk about those models beforehand. nobody was talking about 30% black vote. >> give us a little context. it's funny because you talk about 2012, the last time barack obama was on the ballot, you get a fairly high black turnout for the state of alabama. of course obama loses by 23 pints or something in the neighborhood of 23 points in 2012. i mean, it has beene2qb a very time since there was a very competitive statewide federal race in the state of alabama. >> yeah, 1996, that was the year jeff sessions won his senate seat the first time, the margin was 7 points in alabama. the last time you had a single-digit senate race in alabama. last time you got within a couple of points, 1 point. 1996. richard shelby, the current senior republican senator, he won his seat in '86 by a fraction of a point. otherwise, races with 30, 40 points, sessions essentially unopposed one year, that's been the norm. >> one more question.

those races are happening before the partisan shorting-out is happening in the south like y> it's sort of the post-civil war regime crumbles)) in the ' and '90s, now a solid bloc of republican voters. the final question here. you've been making this point, i think it's an interesting one as we look at more exit polling data, things about abortion, things about what party you support, who you want to be running the u.s. senate. you made this point, i think it's very astute, if this were a statewide supreme court race, you think moore would basically be toast.l that the thing that has kept him going is that voters, particularly die-hard, bleed-red republican voters, are thinking, i may not like roy moore but what is at stake is control of the united states senate federally. >> take a look, i think we can call this up here. this was roy moore's last election in alabama. five years ago he's on the ballot, mitt romney's winning the state on this same day with 62% of the vote. roy moore barely wins this election. roy moore, before any of the

baggage we've talked about for the last few weeks, he had enough baggage to nearly lose a statewide race where there's no issues of who are you going to appoint a supreme court justice to decide roe versus wade? it's not attached to any of that. u7ç huge liability for the republicans in 2012 before all of this.0dz again, we have in an exit poll finding, which party do you want controlling the senate? they say republicans. moore's hoping people vote for the party, not the person. >> one more follow-up require think it's word noting as well. you talk about roy moore and what makes this the race so hard to figure out. roy moore as singular figure. he wins that race, goes back to the state supreme court, he's been removed once for disobeying federal law. he will then end up removed again, right? so even when he jumps into this primary and before&hx:t "the washington post" story in which a 14-year-old says he picked her up outside a custody hearing and molested her. before that, after that election, which he ekes out by 4

points, he gets removed again from the state supreme court in alabama. >> and that was over the issue of gay marriage. it was the ten commandments a decade ago. then it was gay marriage. if roy moore is a figure now basically two decades in alabama, this is a very well known guy. this is an intensely polarizing figure in alabama. then you throw all of this in. it's the ultimate test between person and party. po on this. doug jones was from the beginning a credible candidate, whether people are going to vote for him or not. this is not someone they found at the last second, this was someone who had a profile, a resume, a story to tell. his run i think as a campaign, a very respectable campaign. >> i think the one question, if he comes up short, who knows, theré5-u thing people will look at, not so much a question of strategy, but just sort of a what-if, is that question of abortion. because it's in the exit poll tonight. 54% of alabamians say they believe abortion should be illegal. he took a pro-choice positig,h;n this race. that's something the moore people were talking about. that's something they wanted to bring up. can you win with the pro-choice

label in one of the most anti-abortion states in the country? >> you couldn't get seven seconds into conversation with any moore surrogate anywhere in the state of alabamaefí"h with abortion coming up. they clearly thought that and control of the senate is their ace in the hole. steve kornacki, that was great. we're going to check back with you throughout the night. let's go to montgomery, alabama. the roy moore election night headquarters. we've got nbc news correspondent vaughn hilliard standing by. i want to saya88un you have bee doing phenomenal reporting on this race throughout. i've been following everything you've been posting. great interviews, talking to lots of voters. how would you characterize how folks have been talking about this race in the final stretch? >> i appreciate ú'áy chris. i should note that when we were looking at -- talking to these voters, there's two types of voters. there's hesitant voters that are hesitant about roting for roy moore, understanding the allegations against him there's also hesitant voters who are not open about their5> willnessing vote for democrat doug jones.

today montgomery, there were several people, they will tell you, i don't want to tell you hoy voted for. finally iehd0x convinced them tl mexéo.ñ to the side, without their name, not on camera. they were republicans who were opening and up saying, we voted foreq5l doug joents. many saying, for the first time in their lives. i talked with a schoolteacher, amanda adams, who said she hasn't voted for a democrat in 20 years but she said she was willing to make that sacrifice despite knowing what it may mean to the u.s. senate and vote for doug jones, democrat in this race. i want to bring up what is i think interesting. i just finished talking with a campaign official here at roy moore headquarters watch party. usually at this point, we're just five÷hñ minutes after the polls closing, usually the campaigns have a little better sense of tracking of where this race is. yesterday a campaign official for moore told me?r they were confident, up 8.5%, suggesting they were baked in, winning this, while maintaining support in the more traditionally conservative places like baldwin

and shelby county. just now i said, where do you feel you're at? they said, we're seeing high voter turnout. couldn't offer specifics. talking with the doug jones campaign this afternoon, they also said, we're seeing a high voter turnout. it's very much up in the air what that means. you went throu all those exit polls there with steve. and it's tough. we've been here for more than a month. to try to track down particularly where those republican crossover voters, it's very difficult. i think they were questioning up to this very end. one last number i want to throw out from exit polls is 31% of roy moore voters here today say they voted for him despite hesitancy. which was in stark contrast to those, about 80%, that said for doug jones that they voted for him with full confidence, without hesitancy.zs÷ so it's a question of how many republicans voted him knowing that. >> a great point by vaughn there about shyyzky6 voters in both c not wanting to publicize their vote for different kind of sets

of reasons. and von, that point about cross-over republicans. between high turnout among youn# voters and african-american voters, some segment of cross-over voters is necessary state that donald trump won by nearly 30 points. vaughn hillyer at the montgomery headquarters, we'll come back to you. birmingham, alabama, to the doug jones election night par3án@ñ n news correspondent katie beck, what's happening there? >> good evening. l(%uátz in here in . at a d speaking to voters, also encountering a lot of that,4yh consternation that vaughn was we heard from one gentleman who said he was writing in nick saban instead of voting for roy moore. he said he was a long have time alabama fan, he simply didn't know what to do, he had a crisis

when he headed into the polls and that's how he came out. but these voters, obviously this is something they've been wrestling with, seeing the' national attention. and they expressed to me how hard this hasidzñ been on alabas a state. a lot of them feel they've been misportrayed in the media, feel they've been center stage for something they don't want to be >> although it should be noted if roy moore is united states ju senator, the national coverage and national spotlight on him individually in the state of alabama will probably continue. katie beck, thank you for the update, appreciate it.=çiz >> thank you. >> with me now, democratic national committee tom perez, who was in alabama this weekend working to get out the vote for doug jones. and tom,: bfqb3/y there was somd forth about the -- whether the dnc was going to commit to this race.

am i right that you were there this weekend this. >> no,y2y i wasn't tmttny we had our team there, chris. we have hood a team there throughout, frankly from before the republican primary, because we've been all-in for a long time. doug jones is a spectacular candidate. and this case wasn't about right versus left, it's about right versus wrong. doug stands for everything that we should be fighting for. >>! here's the problem that strikes me if you're running the dnc, as you are. the democratic brand is not great in alabama. that's not a knock on the democratic party, just is the fact of the matterm÷ go in that state. what do you do when the democratic party brand is not great, but there's a huge amount of grass roots energy, a huge amount of grass roots fund-raising. you obviously want doug jones to win a race that as of the last six-$d™eeks looks possible. what do you do to help him win without tying up the national party in a way that hurts him?

>p' do to helpurc+÷ candidates. that's what we did for doug. doug has a 67-county strategy. because not only does he have to win in birmingham and huntsville and mobile and montgomery and the bike belt, he has to hold his own in other counties. he can't get shellacked like prior democratic candidates got. we invested in organizing, we invested in digital, we're out there.cn"7d turning out voters, knocking on doors. calling people. texting people. that's what campaigns are about. that's what the new democratic party is about. organizing, organizing everywhere. helping democrats win. >> i understand that you're responsible for organizing and not messages but let me ask you this given that it's a conservative state and people have the politics they have, and doug jones is democrat, what do4 you talk about to republican voters in those sorts of places where you can't get crushed as you say that is both true to the core values of the democratic

party and is also you're going to find some sort of receptive audience among folks that have been voting republican in alabama? >> well, you talk about the issues they care about. doug jones is all about #kitchentable. he was talking about good jobs. he was talking about theú,jì(lc% that his dad was a steel , he understands blue collar work. he's talking about the fact that if obamacare gets repealed, i'm sure he doesn't call it obamacare, but if it gets repealed, that the access to that rural clinic is at risk. as you know, we talked a lot in virginia, the number one issue for voters in virginia was health care. they went overwhelmingly for the democrat. so the beauty of this situation is theóp!7x message of economic opportunity is a message i think that resonates everywhere. the voters of alabama, and i have spent a lot of time out there because i've done civil rights work down in alabama. that's how i met doug. i've known him almost 20 years.

the voters of alabama don't want someone in washington who's fighting culture wars. that's what roy moore wants to do. they want someone who's fighting for good jobs, for fair wages, for access to health care. >> let me ask you about that. one of the things a lot of people have pointed to in reporting on this race down there, and we looked at the cross tabs about abortion. this is a very, very anti-abortion state. that is the way -- that's the place the electorate is. it's very anti-abortion state among black voters as well. although there's a majority that support it. it's a higher number that are opposed to owe abortion in that state than other plates in other states. is there a problem for doug jones in taking essentially the national democratic party's line on this issue in alabama? >> listen, as vaughn's. thing a few minutes go highlighted, for a lot of voters in alabama, this came down to not an issue of right versus left, but right versus wrong. the family values party can't

possibly be the party of roy moore. this is more than about party. and i admire the republicans and the democrats and independents in alabama that have understood that there are times when you go to the voting booth that it's about more than one issue. it's about your identity as a state and as a nation. as doug correctly said, vocals involved in abusing children should be prosecuted, not put in the u.s. senate. i think a lot of folks understood that. i've talked to a lot of businesspeople in alabama over the course of the work i have done, and they're for doug jones because they know he's going to fight for a good business climate in alabama. how do you go recruit businesses toî@ñ come into alabama when yo number one surrogate is roy moore? how do you make that sell to that company? >> that was a team that doug jones was hitting particularly down the stretch of this campaign. tom perez, thanks for making time for me this evening.

>> pleasure to be with you. >> much more on the high-stakes senate race in alabama, how it got to this point, the reverberations on capitol hill. the elected. and the lose-lose situation the republican party as a whole findsist find s itself in at this hour.

i generall lly consider mys to be a republican but today i voted democrat for doug jones. i do believe that roy moore is a sexual predator. he's been removed from office twice. so in my opinion he thinks he's above the law. >> i voted for roy moore. and i just believe a man, until he's actually convicted of something, you can't go by hearsay or what other democrats -- what other parties are trying to say he has done. >> alabama senate race is one of the strangest elections in years, if not decades. republican roy moore was already disliked by a wide swath of his party because of his homophobe yeah his religious bigotry, and

his in your face lawlessness that got him removed from the supreme court twice. then came the sexual misconduct accusations. "the washington post" reporting an allegation that roy moore had molested a 14-year-old girl. allegations of sexual assault of other teens followed. a deep, deep conservative bone-red state where a democrat has a chance to win a senate seat. josh moon "the alabama political reporter" joins me live from montgomery. josh, start on the dynamics of the last six week in the wake of the "washington post" revelat n revelations and how that shaped the terrain of this race. >> you know, it's funny to me that it seems like we had this whole setup here with kind of the cult of roy moore. you know, and these people who have been around for a long time in this state. these guys who he could rely on forever here that were going to

show up and vote at any election that he was in. he was going to get this small percentage of people out there to vote for him. and then slowly over time, after that "washington post" story hit, you kind of saw an erosion of the people who were going to hold their nose and vote for him. among the republicans here in this state. because that's what a whole lot of republicans were doing here, they were going to hold their nose, vote for the republican, toe the party line. i think you lost a lot of those people as the story went further and further without any real answer from roy moore. >> there's a real question about the backlash effect that if the moore campaign and trump coming back around to moore and endorsing him explicitly -- it could basically turn this into a story about the liberal media and the carpet baggers and george soros involved in some conspiracy, if they could rally folks -- i wonder how much traction do you think that kind of backlash-stoking had?

>> you know -- it's unclear to me, really. because i think a lot of the people that you heard that from were already those hardcore roy moore supporters. >> right. >> you know, they wanted to vote for roy moore and they were out looking for reasons to do so. so they bought into the conspiracies of george soros, which, i mean, come on, man. you know? what are we talking about here? i mean, you know, it's just so foolish. these people, these women that they're talking about, you hear their trends and fafriends and about them, they've lived in these towns their entire lives, everybody knew them, most people knew these stories who were close to these women. the idea that all of a sudden george soros has come in and, you know, concocted this conspiracy to get rid of roy moore, it's just so absurd. but people bought it. because this was who they wanted to vote for. and they wanted to believe this nonsense. >> final question.

how much -- particularly barkley had a line, we've got to stop looking like idiots to the world, barkley an alabama native, he was there for doug jones. how much do you think that's in the mind of voters about how alabama looks to nonalabamians? >> i believe that's a big thing right now. i really, really do. i think there are a lot of good people in this state who have now seen us through the eyes of the national media. and they've taken a look at some of the goobers we put on tv the last month here to say just ridiculously absurd things. and they are embarrassed by it. they want to get rid of some of these people. and i mean, who could blame them? if you've watched some of these interviews. i think that this is -- it's a real turning point, or it could be. >> all right, josh moon, thanks for joining me tonight, i've appreciated you analysis throughout this race. >> thanks, chris. all right. as we look at the very early returns in the alabama senate race, the race is still too early to call.

there's only 1% of precincts in. coverage of the election continues including one democratic congresswoman's calls to take precautionary measures to protect teenagers working on capitol hill in the event roy moore wins tonight, that story next.

ings are going to speak louder than words. all this mess is going to be over with a vote. the verdict rests on the people of alabama. >> we're back with live coverage of the special senate election in alabama where the votes are still being counted. right now nbc news is characterizing the race as too early to call.

we've got 1% in. if you look in the upper right-hand corner. those results essentially meaningless at this hour. the 70% and the 30%. republican roy moore is hoping voters will essentially absolve him tonight of multiple credible allegations of sexual misconduct. some involving teenaged girls as young as 14. he's trying to follow the same path laid out by the president last year. win the election, case closed. but even if moore wins tonight, it will not be the end of the story, because if moore wins, he will be walking into the capitol just as other male lawmakers are being kicked out for allegations of their own. in that climate, some of his fellow republicans, including senate majority leader mitch mcconnell, are already calling for moore to underabout an ethics investigation if and when he gets to washington. across the aisle democrats aren't waiting for the final results to prepare for moore's arrival. congresswoman gwen moore called for new protections for senate pages writing, it would be unconscionable for congress to not be vigilant and proactive in

taking precautions to safeguard these children, given the well-sourced allegations against roy moore. if the president is the model for moving beyond sexual misconduct allegations, the past few days don't offer roy moore a ton of hope. some of the president's own accusers are back in the spotlight demanding a "me too" moment of their own. dozens of democrats in congress are calling for an investigation into the president's behavior and a growing number of senate democrats are calling on the president to resign immediately from office. now trump being trump, he could not resist dumping gasoline on that particular fire. his choice words for senator kirsten gillibrand next.

after a number of women came -- let's start with the results. the alabama senate race of course polls closed about 32 minutes ago. we have just 1% in. doug jones there on the left, roy moore on the right. of course it's going to be a long night if precedent is anything in alabama, where it takes quite a while. we do not know what this race will do tonight. it is characterized at too early to call at this moment, although we have our very own steve kornacki who's working on precinct by precinct data that might give us a little bit of a clue. we're going to go to him in a little bit. after a number of women came forward yet again to describe being groped or harassed by the man who is now president of the united states, new york senator kirsten gillibrand became the latest senate democrat to call on the president to resign.

she's been a leader on the issue of sexual assault in the military, was the first colleague to publicly call on senator al franken to resign over his own sexual misconduct allegations. her comments appear to have gotten under the president's notoriously thin skin. "lightweight senator kirsten gillibrand, a total flunky for chuck schumer, someone who would come to my office begging for campaign contributions and would do anything for them is now in the ring fighting against trump, very disloyal to bill and crooked, used." okay. the president's apparent innuendo drew swift and forceful condemnation from democrats on capitol hill, including senator gillibrand herself. >> it was a sexist smear attempting to silence my voice. and i will not be silenced on this issue. neither will the women who stood up to the president yesterday. neither will the millions of women who have been marching since the women's march to stand up against policies they do not agree with. >> according to white house

spokesperson sarah huckabee sanders, there was nothing remotely suggestive about the president's tweet. >> there's no way that this is sexist at all. this is simply talking about a system that we have that is broken in which special interests control our government. and i don't think that there's probably many people that are more controlled by political contributions than the senator that the president referenced. >> congresswoman jackie speier, democrat from california, has been leading calls for congressional investigation into the allegations against the president. let me start with what the president had to say about your colleague kirsten gillibrand, what's your reaction? >> actually one of disbelief. when i first heard it, i kind of lost my breath. i thought, this grotesque statement by the president of the united states, which suggests that virtually any woman in this country, how dare you. how dare you demean another woman in that manner. how dare you be the president of the united states and conduct yourself in that manner. he is so ill equipped to be the

president. and every day there's yet another tweet to substantiate that. >> you know, the idea of investigation him in congress over the allegations that are already public and already on the record and have been in most cases for over a year has really picked up steam recently. you've been calling for that. what would that even look like? >> well, we have requested that the government affairs and oversight committee take on that responsibility. trey gouddy this evening sent a letter saying, this is criminal conduct and should be looked at by the department of justice. so we're referring it there. interesting approach to take. i think what's most important is that these 19 women who have called out the president for what was sexually harassing conduct at different times in their lives should be aired. we should hear from them. nikki haley, the ambassador to the u.n. by the president and

fellow republican, has said these women should be heard. and we've got to create a forum so they can be. >> do you think all this -- do you think the president thought that he would never have to hear about this again after he won, and how do you think he feels about having to hear about it again? >> i think it does get under his skin. i think what is most disturbing about it is how he so swiftly says, they lied, they lied. women don't lie about this. women are very loath to come forward. 70% of those who are sexually harassed never report it because they are fearful of what will happen, retaliation, having them looked upon as being liars, all of that bodes for not coming forward. so if they're willing to come forward, there is truth to what they're saying. >> this is a question, personal question, i'd like you to answer honestly if you can. roy moore might be elected to the united states senate. i imagine there's some

professional context in which you'd meet roy moore, stand across from him. what would you do? >> i wouldn't shake his hand. i probably wouldn't even recognize his existence. he shouldn't be in the senate but that's something the senate's going to have to decide for itself. they have talked about referring it to the ethics committee. and that is the appropriate place to which it should be sent. >> all right, congresswoman jackie speier, thanks for your time tonight. rebecca tracer, writer at large for "new york" magazine where she profiled senator gillibrand a few months ago. since we have alabama rolling in the background here, this does seem to be whatever happens, particularly were roy moore to win, another moment when it's like, you're loading the spring of the backlash. you know? of the anger that folks feel about people getting away with this. >> right. it depends on which version of the backlash you're talking about. >> right. i mean the backlash against --

>> the normalization of harassment, assault, and accepted jen dir discrimination in our public sphere and other places, yeah. i'd say there's backlash to that. yeah, i think you are. but on the other hand, if he loses, it's going to tell us how rampant the anger already is and the kind of electoral power it's having. we have evidence of that even in the fact that the election looks to be that it might be as close as it's going to be. i mean, this is unheard of in alabama, for a crucial senate seat, for a seat that the republicans need, the fact that it's going to be close at all, if it indeed is going to be, it looks like it may be. that is telling us a lot about how much this issue and the broader issue of sexism is beginning to have electoral impact. you can see that from virginia elections, special elections that took place in georgia, local elections where democratic women won. i think we're beginning to see electoral reverberations here that are real. >> it's an interesting point. so much of the commentary tends to be well, it's alabama, he's

still roy moore. how is this even close? but that point i think is important. this is something that people have been saying which is that, the allegations have had a big impact. this is a close race right now. because a significant portion of people do believe these women. >> donald trump won alabama by 30 points. is that right? >> yes, yes. >> we also just elected donald trump president. i mean, the speed at which these things -- >> good point, yes. just a year ago. >> it was just a year ago we leaked donald trump president. the speed at which these things change. there's fascinating polling that was released by a pollster named trace undam about the speed with which the interest in looking at sexual harassment as related to the kind of power that men have, that interest is spreading to republicans, to trump supporters. >> that's interesting. >> there are huge numbers across partisan divides that are now saying, a, trump himself should be investigated, that sitting lawmakers should be

investigated, 70% or higher. >> 70% saying congress should investigate allegations with trump. you never see a poll at 70%. it's a 66/33. >> a pollster did similar polling after last year's election, i recommend that you look at this polling. because the jumps have been twrem in a year's time. >> quickly on gillibrand, what the heck? >> well, when i saw the dweet -- i thought to myself, if i being an oversensitive feminist here? i think that maybe the president is calling a sitting senator a prostitute? >> you texted me that. >> i did. am i just being thin skinned? you know, it's the kind of thing that is unbelievable. but also in the category of things that are unbelievable this year, it sort of is right on the nose. >> and sort of central to who he is. >> central to who he is. also central to the kinds of power abuses that are at stake in the conversations about harassment to begin with. the sexualizing, demeaning, and

degrading women. even without touching them. >> he sexually harassed her in front of the country amid a national conversation on sexual harassment. great to have you here. >> thank you. >> coverage continue in the alabama senate race. steve kornacki's got new information about which way the election is headed.

joining me to breakdown the latest batch of exit poll data and precincts reporting, hot off the presses, msnbc national correspondent steve kornacki. >> it's skeletal, sketchy, it's early, 25,000 votes. jones out to the early lead. it depends where it's coming from. you can't read much into that. we want to look at the particular areas of the state. let me dive into one county in a second. very quickly again the bottom line strategy if you're jones is, you're looking for a huge number out of birmingham. we only have one precinct in in jefferson county. you're looking to win in the huntsville metro area. you're looking to win in mobile, looking to eat into the republican suburban base around

here. that's sort of the path that jones is cutting. from moore's standpoint, what you want is you want giant numbers out of the rural areas. here's where it gets a little interesting. we have one county where we've got about half the vote in right now. otherwise we're looking at scattered precincts. in the northern part of the state here, it's limestone county, right here on the border. this is interesting. because when donald trump ran last year in 2016, donald trump got 72% of the vote in this county. when roy moore ran for chief justice and nearly lost five years ago, in 2012, he got 62% in this county. what is it looking like right now? roy moore running basically at the level even now. we'll see. it's half the vote in, aboutt % 40%. the question in rural counties for moore was, can he improve on what he did in 2012 when he nearly lost? because trump, this is the part of the state, when you're basically looking north of birmingham and take out huntsville, every other county here, trump basically improved significantly. it was his best improvement over

mitt romney in 2012. so if you think the trumpification of politics, the polarization that comes with that, might boost moore, you want moore if you're his campaign to be running better than he did in '12. that's the level you want to see in that county if you're jones. >> we should note he did win that, he won that race, that state supreme court race, eke the it out by i think 3 points. but also interesting data there, one of the questions i think a lot of people have been asking is, what about write-ins? there was talk of a write-in. richard shelby goes on the sunday shows to say he wrote in the name of a prominent republican yor you've got this idea, i'm going to write someone in. at the same time it's hard to imagine people get in the car, driving to a polling location, and writing in someone. that indicates around 2%, not an enormous effect at this point. >> you had one candidate who kind of emerged named lee buzzby, from what i can tell that boom lasted about six

hours, he didn't seem to make much of a splash. a lot of people felt, if you're going to go to the trouble of voting in this election, everybody knows the stakes, everybody knows what's on the line, what the story is, that means you have a preference for who wins or loses. to put the write-in vote, doesn't seem like many people are interested in that. >> limestone county, from what you've said, is that if you're the jones folks you look at them and say, they haven't put us out yet. roy moore is not running away with this race at 8:47 and the dominos are going to start to fall. is that fair? >> yeah, no, again, it's basically two games for jones. it's hold your own in rural areas. >> right. >> relative to how clinton did against trump last year. and right now, again, it's limited in scattered evidence. we've got to see when these big counties come in. you look at the one county where we have the most vote if you're jones, that's what you want to see coming out of that county. >> that's very useful, steve kornacki, thank you. from a doug jones event,

national political correspondent for "the washington post," gadston is the hometown of roy moore, the place he somewhat infamously according to reports was banned from the mall, what are you hearing there? >> the first precinct in the county, which we need to findwhen where it was, landslide for jones. this is an area where democrats organized very well, they knew some of the victims personally, some of the accusers i this say, in the moore situation. at this party they were telling me they really had not had a race that did not see their party in decline, losing members, seeing people switch, in decades. so this was a galvanizing event. when people were turning out at the polls they were the 50th person on election day for a presidential race they were at the 30th you put in so many miles covering races in this country. what has struck you being on the ground in alabama?

>> long signs don't vote. i've learned that lesson the hard way. i don't think i've ever seen as many long signs for a candidate since the 2011-12 recall attempt against scott walker are. every scott walker supporter wanted you to know he was a scott walker supporter. in this race everyone wanted that tote actual on their lawn saying they were backing doug jones, not roy moore. i was in counties where donald trump won by 50 points and i drive a block, look up the economic data, and i'd see five doug jones signs in a place that went strongly for trump that was very well educated, fairly wltsdy. it was hard to myth that. people who are voting for roy moore and even if you went to a deep rural area, you did not see the grassroots support that you saw for donald trump. but even for state senate candidates. >> all right, dave weigel who's got more frequent fliers than 9/11 in the business, thanks for joining us. tonight's no-win situation

for the republican party, either lose a senate seat to a democrat or a man accused of child molestation is a republican in the u.s. senate. rick wilson, jason johnson join me next.

fake news will tell you we don't care for jews. one of our attorneys is a jew. [ applause ] >> we have very close friends that are jewish and rabbis and

we fellowship with them. >> kayla moore, wife of roy moore prepared remarks to prove her husband does not hate jews and the man behind her, the man republicans will have to deal with in 2018, a senator from alabama who stands accused of child molestation and defines the rule of law if he is able to win tonight. even though it remains to be seen how establishment republicans will deal with roy moore, 61% of americans want the senate to expel roy moore if he wins and 45% of republicans agree. jason johnson political analyst, professor at morgan state university. rick, let me start with it appears to be from very early but basically until the dead heatish range, too early to call, is the official ch characterization benchmarks being hit. let's start with the if moore wins scenario. one thing that occurred to me when i saw the 61% polling

number, donald trump is a certain kind of charisma that roy moore doesn't have, and roy moore strikes me as a pretty c toxic figure and regional intense figure for national republicans to have to carry around. what do you think of that? >> i completely agree. he's a guy whose been an edge case in alabama, the reddest state in the country. roy moore is always under performed even people like mitt romney in state-wide races in alabama. so the specificity of roy moore's particular political flavor is not something that you can scale beyond non-metro regions of alabama. that may still be enough to pull him over the finish line tonight but the toxicity of roy moore's brand, the fact that -- let's not forget roy moore likes -- is actually attracted to teenage girls, that will stick with him. that will be a problem. if the democrats are disciplined

and smart about it, they will turn that, the fact that he's going to get seated in the u.s. senate and that for all the brave talk, i believe that the caucus will do nothing. they will launch an ethics investigation and nothing will happen. you know, that's going to be something if the democrats were smart, they would hang moore around our necks and if roy moore is smart, he will, he will play his little game with steve bannon and make himself into a star of the new right and poison or destroy the republican brand. >> he's got every incentive to perform quite a bit. you know, one of the things that happens in a race like this is a reminder what the racial politics of the south look like and how intense they are and how hard -- how sort of racial and partisan lines have lined up, and what it brings you to, it seems to me is that if, you know, if roy moore is your nominee, you can send him to the u.s. senate because of how that structure works. >> right, we just saw this in atlanta. people will cross party for race

all the time, and so roy moore is somebody who is going to benefit from the fact that not only have democrats not broken over 40% in the state, you know, running statewide in 20 years but the fact you have a tremendous amount of voter id, voter accesuppression and reporn twitter areas primarily black voter areas have fewer voting machines. all the structural dynamics come into play. >> it's the case there are 300 more per precincts in alabama than white presents. >> yes, yes, and, you know, with fewer and fewer machines, that being said, what is interesting is what i've been reading is there is a lot more effort in the race because people believe there is a chance here, the naacp is making more phone calls than 2016. they figured they were a lost cause in 2016. the naacp spent more money putting people on the ground. you could see a change. i don't necessarily think it will lead to him not winning. >> there is a question about the

30% number. that's a number that not a lot of people were banding together. rick, let's go to the flip side. i mean, i remember -- i was in washington d.c. covering the news the morning after scott brown won and i remember walking into this running into a democratic member of congress that looked like he was hit over the head. glassy eye look of complete despair. what would it mean for the republicans if they woke up tomorrow to a doug jones win? >> well, what it would mean is that they would have to furrow their brows and express deep concern or perhaps even worry significantly that donald trump was doing something to the republican party that wasn't as positive as they had hoped. they won't understand that the cancer that's eating them is steve bannon and donald trump. it's not something external. it's caused by those two people inside, you know, chewing their way through the carcass of the

gop and they don't care about the damage. trump and bannon don't care about the damage people have to patch up if doug jones wins tomorrow. it should be a shock. it won't be a shock. there's a delusional bubble around trump that is poisoned their ability to really think their way out of the problem. >> here is the other problem, you know, if roy moore wins, then you have to deal with roy moore and if you look at everything in his -- >> sure. >> the way he's talked to people and deals with republicans in the state. >> the way he deals with supreme court judicial colleagues that hated him. >> kicked off twice. you say how much everybody dislikes ted cruz because he's a know it all. it will be worse. he'll be lecturing people and not going to be a reliable vote. i don't see how this is a win for republicans on any level. >> there is really this question to rick to your point about we're seeing the same dynamics that made donald trump the president of the united states by first making him the republican party nominee at play in this race in alabama and the

open question tonight is whether this is the bridge too far. even the republican voters of alabama, donald trump won by 30 points cannot bring themselves to send roy moore to the united states senate. rick wilson and jason johnson, thank you for joining us. that is "all in" for this evening. "the rachel maddow show" starts now. this is a fun day to be in the jobs we have. >> fascinating, one of the most fascinating races. >> so many things to watch and monitor and pay attention to and contention and one of the days i'm super grateful to be here. >> me, too. >> thanks to all of you at home for joining us this hour on this very exciting, very consequential news night. it's going to be very consequential either way and we have no idea how it's going to go at this point. it is now 9:00 p.m. eastern time, which means 8:00 p.m. central, which means poll haves been closed in the great state of alabama for one hour. i ,