tv Morning Joe MSNBC October 30, 2020 3:00am-6:00am PDT
senate. thank you, hans nichols, yes, we'll be reading axios a.m. you can sign up at signup.axios.com. speaking of the center and centralism i'm still watching georgia, georgia, in the final days. there's so much on the line there. perhaps an unexpected performance by joe biden and two senate seats. stick around. "morning joe" starts right now. hundreds of people gathered for a president trump campaign rally in bemidji and at least nine people have tested positive for coronavirus. >> there were two hospitalizations that were associated with that one who is in intensive care. >> to shuttle all of the people back to the cars the trump campaign hired 40 buses and the buses were delayed and people had to wait to get back to their
cars. police tell us there were about a half dozen supporters who were transported to the hospital. >> there was few masks and in the 87 degree heat multiple people passed out. 12 taken to the hospital and the president said this as a fire truck sprayed water into the crowd. >> are they doing that on purpose? friend or foe? >> covid in minnesota. >> boy, that looks like fun. >> hypothermia in nebraska and heat exhaustion in florida. the health risks of a trump rally. >> triple threat there, willie geist. it is dangerous to your health to go to those things. >> yeah. start with the gathering with the covid reasons and this is an additional layer, but you're smushing a bunch of people together in a time when we're racing towards more infections
and president trump is carrying on with his rhetoric and rally as if that's not happening. >> yeah. other people in his family are dismissing of this seriousness of this going away. donald trump says we keep turning the corners. we keep setting the records for the number of coronavirus cases every day and we had a thousand -- i think over 1,000 people died of covid-19 yesterday. just to put this in perspective, that's more people dying in one day than died in u.s. fatalities in afghanistan over the past decade. donald trump talks about how long we have been in afghanistan and soldiers that are still getting killed in afghanistan and the marines. more people died yesterday of covid in america. something we just -- again, now take for granted every day. but more people died yesterday of covid in america than died in
the afghanistan war. u.s. soldiers, over the past decade. >> it's staggering at this point. the disconnect. along with joe, willie and me we have chief white house correspondent for "the new york times," peter baker. host of "way too early," kasie hunt. and politics and journalism professor at morgan university, editor, jason johnson is with us. so we're now in the final four days of campaigning ahead of election day. today is all about the midwest. both donald trump and joe biden will make stops in minnesota and wisconsin. trump in rochester, minnesota, and green bay, wisconsin. biden in st. paul, minnesota, and milwaukee. trump also rallies in michigan just outside of detroit while biden holds a drive-in rally in des moines, iowa. willie?
>> so we know where their focus so let's look at the polling. in pennsylvania, the latest quinnipiac university poll shows joe biden ahead there by seven points. 51% to 44%. couple of polls out of florida. monmouth university gives joe biden a six-point advantage. 51% to 45% in the poll. quinnipiac has biden ahead by three in the state, 45% to 42%. in ohio, the quinnipiac pack shows biden ahead by five points, 48% to 43%. in north carolina, the latest "new york times"/siena poll has biden ahead. and in iowa, donald trump is ahead by one point. 47% to 46%. so airtight in all of the states. i know you're skeptical of any poll that shows a five-point lead in florida. you've run for office there. what are you seeing in florida and why don't you believe a
five-point spread poll? >> also, we didn't have a five-point spread for ohio in biden by that poll? >> yeah. >> yeah, that ain't happening. i mean, i feel like -- i feel like harry bailey at the end of "it's a wonderful life," sobbing, i want to believe in polls again. it's so comforting when -- >> you never know. >> you look at a poll, oh, that's great. well, let's just talk about florida. so a number of polls out, florida plus 6, biden. florida, plus 3, that's a little closer to the reality. we had a "new york times"/siena poll that had florida plus 4. smartest democratic operative i know who ran a massive poll across florida has biden up four. maybe it will happen. maybe it will happen, but if you look at the early numbers, look at the data coming out of florida, republicans keep
chewing away at that huge 430,000 vote lead the democrats had last weekend. they knock it down about 50,000 every day. republicans are outperforming democrats on a massive scale. they're going plus 50,000 about every day so where is that democratic energy after four years of donald trump? they lost another 40, 50,000 yesterday, so now that lead has been whittled down to 155,000 votes and that's going all the way through sunday for early voting. look at miami-dade and joe biden is still underperforming. so right now, i see all the polls that show a four or five point lead for joe biden, but i see the data on the ground. i also understand that this is,
forgive me, steve kornacki, but this is exactly what pollsters were saying not four years ago in florida, two years ago in florida when they had ron desantis down by five points. had rick scott, current senator, rick scott down by four or five points. it seemed like every poll had gillum as the next governor of florida. it was an absolute shock when he ended up losing. and so, again, i see these florida polls, six. plus 5, plus 4. they just don't ring any more truth than that ohio poll that has joe biden up by five points. i do not know what -- now, if it happens i'll be shocked and the pollsters have it right, but steve, we keep talking about 2016 and the pollsters getting
it wrong. they got a lot of the upper midwest states and florida wrong in 2018. >> yeah. a critical point to keep in mind. there were changes made to polling at the state level after 2016 and we'll see how they hold up but i do think it's worth remembering in 2018 a particular type of state, state with a large noncollege white population, state with large -- with a large rural white population, you saw misses. you saw miss in the polling in 2018 statewide in ohio, you saw it in indiana and in missouri. saw it in tennessee. you saw it in north dakota. some demographic characteristics there that tie a lot of states together. i know a lot of them lean republican but it is a question i think when you look at some of those polls out of the midwest and like you said the example of 2018 in florida looms large. the modern history of florida being a one or two point race looms large. of course in florida, we're always talking about it seems
there is some kind of tradeoff in place when you look at the polls where the democrats maybe have gained ground, biden has with seniors in florida, just as he's losing ground with hispanics more particularly cubans in florida. florida has a way of finding equilibrium by election day. >> yeah. i think it was josh barro last night who commented, yes, there are tradeoffs in florida but all tradeoffs aren't created equally. someone who has been on the ballot four times in florida i can tell you if i had to choose a tradeoff where i lost more cuban-americans than hillary clinton did four years ago, but i picked up a lot more white seniors, i'd take the old white seniors any day of the week in the state of florida because that's a pickup on a fairly massive scale so i will say this. if joe biden overperforms among
older white seniors where hillary clinton underperformed last time, and if those independents -- we already had 1.6 million third party, other party, nonrepublican and democratic, not affiliated floridians vote already. 1.6 million. we don't know how those are going to break. if those break for joe biden, then, yes, maybe biden gets a two, a three-point lead. but those are a couple of big ifs. >> white seniors, older voters in florida in particular, key obviously to florida, but remember we'll get the florida result early. we think we'll get a lot of results in the 7:00, 8:00 hour from florida. just remind you what happened in 2016 and what we could tell from the vote that came in in 2016. think along the gulf coast in florida when you saw at 7:45,
8:00 that president trump was running 10, 15 points better in counties than mitt romney had four years earlier. he hit levels that you didn't think a republican would hit, he was seeing turnout levels that you didn't think a republican could hit. of it told you wait a minute, who are the older white voters who live along the gulf coast, who have moved to the gulf coast of florida. they're from wisconsin. they're from michigan. they come down from the midwest and they retire to the gulf coast so if you're seeing that surge along the gulf coast of florida early for donald trump it told us look out for a couple of hours and we get the votes from the midwest which is exactly what happened. work that in reverse, thinking ahead to election night 2020. if it's not showing up this time, if you're seeing the kind of shift among the seniors in the gulf coast counties the question you start asking then, "a" does that say something
about where florida is going and portend a shift in the midwest as well? >> a great point. i remember early 2004, i was on the panel with chris matthews. i think brokaw, howard fineman, mike barnicle. this is something for people to be looking at at 7:15, 7:30 when the florida results came in. i started looking -- because the whole state of florida doesn't report obviously until 8:00 when the central time zone of florida, my part of the state starts reporting, but i could tell by 8:00, by comparing what bush had done in 2004 with what he was doing in 2004 and these florida -- in these florida counties, whether it was in miami-da miami-dade, broward or palm beach or whether it was the center of the state or up in jacksonville and duval county.
i could tell that bush was so overperforming his 2000 numbers and i turned to people on the panel, i said, hey, florida is not going to be close this year. since there are so many transplants in this state, if bush is outperforming himself here, this is going to also be true across the midwest. also -- and it ended up being that way. that's why, steve, we have all been hearing that, yes, pennsylvania, it's going to take them 18 years to count all the votes in pennsylvania but it's important for people to remember that by 7:30, especially if 75, 80% of floridians have already voted, by 7:30 we can go in and look at a lot of the counties especially in the middle of the state and like you said, along the gulf coast. if donald trump is underperforming by 10, 15%, what he did four years ago in those florida counties, that's not
just bad news for him in florida. that's bad news for him across the country. now, if donald trump is doing as well in those -- even those small counties some of which will have 90% of their vote in and we'll get it by 7:30 at night on election night f you take some of those counties in the center of the state and donald trump is holding those margins, well, joe biden may be in for not just a long night, a very long few weeks. >> well, you know, look, we can -- how about this. i'll call this up. this is what happened on election night 2016 in florida. actually, let me hit the button right here. so as an example, take a look. take a look at pasco county. that's what i was trying to call up. this is one of the counties i remember seeing early on election night north of tampa, gulf coast. look at the trump margin, 59% to 37% over clinton. look at what we were comparing that to four years ago, romney won it by seven and trump was
winning it by three times the margin mitt romney won it by. so you're absolutely right. what we'll be doing on election night 2020 is we're going to have the 2020 result right and we'll see how does this compare? county after county to four years ago and was saw all of the trends you're describing in florida. have they changed in a way that favors the democrats, have they changed in a way that favors the republicans, have they canceled each other out? but yeah, i just expect -- it was tim russert 20 years ago who said florida, florida, florida, but that's my expectation for the early hours of election night 2020. there's a lot of florida and a lot coming out in florida and georgia and ohio, some other states too. it can be telling us something very significant about the national race. >> well, willie, pasco county, let's look at pasco county that steve had up on the big board right now. that's one of the four or five
counties that i'm going to be looking at, that you're going to be look at at 7:15, 7:30, because again they're -- all of the early votes unlike pennsylvania and the other midwest states, florida is counting the votes right now. they're counting the absentee votes and counting the early votes right now. polls close at 7:00. they drop them at 7:15, 7:30 and again, in a county like pasco county they're have counted will already 90%, 95% of the votes. that will come at us very quickly and if we can show steve, by the big board and show the numbers there, you look at what barack obama got in 2012 and see that he got 46%, hillary clinton gets 37%. if we're seeing a number for joe biden out of pasco county at 7:15, 7:30, on election night and he's sitting at 42%, 43% that's big news because that
means a lot of those obama/trump voters are edging back towards joe biden. and that means that some of those older white voters are breaking away from donald trump. if trump holds his numbers and biden is down in the 30s in pasco county and ten others in the middle of the state, then great news for trump. he's holding on to the people that he knows he needs to win and that will carry through florida and maybe some other states as well. >> yeah. there's a reason that donald trump was in tampa yesterday and on a hot day. he knows exactly where he needs to be and what he needs to do in the state of florida. even if you move over a couple of counties to pinellas county, president obama won that county and donald trump flipped it back in 2016. we'll be -- the i-4 corridor we'll have a close eye on that all night. i know you will too, steve. i have heard from a lot of people over the last few days wondering with all of the mail-in vote how to process the
numbers that we'll have coming in on election night. so as you look, you mentioned georgia, you mentioned florida, you mentioned north carolina, ohio should have a pretty good feel for those states. but what are the places where if it drags on it could be a couple of days and how should we look at the percentage that we get in first that that vote that's in the bank, the early vote, while we wait for other votes to be counted? >> yeah, it's going to vary by state and we can use 2016 in florida as an example here. of course things are a little bit different this year because of the pandemic, because of the emphasis on early voting. but, four years ago, when donald trump carried florida you see by 1.2 here, going in to election day all of this -- these daily updates on early voting in florida, the ballot advantage for democrats going in to election day was 90,000 and what that translated into was that hillary clinton won the early/mail-in vote in florida in 2016 by six points.
so everything that's going on now this period in 2016 in florida, hillary clinton won by six points that's what it ended up being. then the folks who went out on election day and voted, donald trump won them by 12 points. trump won the election day vote by 12. you put those two buckets of votes together, that's what it added up to. so what you saw in 2016 overall was a democratic advantage in the early/mail votes because of the way florida reports out its results as joe is saying, in that first hour especially when you get these big reports out from these counties and you're seeing 70%, 80% of the vote this is the bucket you're seeing officially. then this is the bucket that gets added to it. so in a state like florida you might expect that the earliest numbers you get will be the best numbers that joe biden sees in florida and then the question is can he hold on as the votes from this bucket which are probably going to be more donald trump friendly as those are added in across the state. that's the story in a state like florida.
it's probably going to be different in a state if you go to in the pennsylvania, pennsylvania is a bit of a mish-mash in terms of how different counties are doing it. but there are some counties in pennsylvania that aren't going to touch their mail-in ballots until next day. and they're only going to report out on election night the votes that were cast on election day. there are other counties, other places in pennsylvania like the city of philadelphia for instance, that are going to report out probably a big chunk of their mail-in vote along with their same-day vote. they'll get more of a mix. but even in a place like philadelphia it's going to take days to get through and process those hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots. so if in florida the story is going to be the early vote that gets reported is favorable to biden and then it gets more trump friendly as the night goes on. in pennsylvania, a couple other places, the story is going to be the first numbers you see and probably for a few hours on election night for all of election night are going to be the best that trump sees in
pennsylvania and then they're going to improve for biden as the mail comes in and can biden overtake whatever advantage trump has. >> you're looking a the polling averages in the critical swing states that we have been looking at for months and months now. we're four days out. how close are these states, steve? >> yeah we can take a look here. there's three tiers here. we always talk about michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, the three trump barely won but are so critical to his electoral college math in 2016. the polling there is continues to be the biggest trump vulnerabilities in the swing states. again, if biden just wins the three states, overwhelming likely he's won the election. it's very difficult to see trump coming one 270 without those. if you move to florida, arizona, north carolina, states trump won
in 2016 but by much smaller margins, they have arizona in a tie. there are some -- i should note there are some of the other poll averagers who have biden up by about two points in arizona right now. depends what mix of polls you use and what weight you give them. north carolina though, they have got biden up by a fraction of a point. texas, iowa, these are states that trump won by hike single digits what is the polling showing there? trump up a couple in texas. a tie in ohio. five-point lead yesterday was the biggest thing that biden has seen out of ohio. georgia, iowa. biden leads very, very slight, but iowa it was a ten-point race almost in 2016 and now biden leading by one. a big shift in the polls but very, very competitive. >> all right. >> steve kornacki, thank you very much. wow. this going to be really going
down to the wire. >> it really is. you look at the state of florida, and as steve said, hillary clinton was up plus six percentage points going into the night and now we have not just democrats and republicans thinking that both parties are cannibalizing the same-day voting. so we're not exactly sure what that 6% is going to look like. have republicans by cannibalizing i mean, have they taken voters that were normally vote on election day that donald trump is going to depend on election day and have they moved them forward and had them voting early? so going to be -- going to be a lot of questions, a lot of moving parts as steve said. a lot of shifting alliances going on in the state of florida and across the country. we'll be following it, but i do think we're going to get a pretty clear message out of florida early in the evening. so peter baker, we're going to
the final weekend obviously. so much can happen in the final weekend, of course. we have things far different than say they were in 1980 when jimmy carter and ronald reagan seemed to be tied on the friday going in to the final weekend and then reagan had the late surge. we've got in some states 60% of the voters, 70% of the voters, 80% of the voters, they have already banked their vote right now. so not as much of a shift but still in a race that could possibly be this close, the final dash to the end could make a big difference. how are the two candidates going to be talking to their voters to try to bring home a victory? >> yeah. you know, i think this is all fascinating, by the way. thank you for the education. i'm glad to know about the difference between florida and pennsylvania myself. i think the last weekend matters so much less this time than any election we have ever seen. we have always wondered what could be the last minute
surprise that changed the votes. we saw it in 2000 when george w. bush's duis became public and threw his votes into a recount in florida and we saw the bin laden tape in '84 and things change at the last few minutes but with 82 million votes already cast, roughly 60% of the total cast in 2016, they're speaking to a smaller and smaller set of voters. with biden and trump today in the midwest will be doing is talking to the handful -- not a handful but a relatively small percentage of people who haven't voted yet. very few you feel like are undecided. this is a matter of getting people to the polls who are inclined to vote for one candidate or the other. could anything they say in the last few days really change that? hard to see what that would be. the bigger unknown at this point is how many of the votes get counted and what standards are
applied, right? those are the fights being held right now in the courts day after day. new rulings from the supreme court or other federal courts, setting up the rules of the road for election night and for the days that follow. those are the bigger battles than the set speeches that the candidates will do. >> yeah. >> for sure. >> there's some surprising decisions that have come out of the supreme court. i will say, mika, as far as the supreme court goes, they know as does the rest of america, at least people that are following closely speaking of the court cases, donald trump is going to be ahead in pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin the first day. most likely because that's day of voters. they're going to favor him. and then once he goes ahead, he and the republican party and their lawyers are going to try to stop the vote.
they're going to use whatever means they can to get to the supreme court and stop the vote while he's ahead. they have been trying in one court case after another. they cut short the voting in those midwest states because they understand if all of those votes are counted, obviously it's going to benefit joe biden and most likely joe biden is going to win. so donald trump knows and his lawyers have admitted as much, they're going to challenge as much as they can challenge and stop the vote while donald trump is ahead. >> he's very transparent. >> very transparent about it. so i am certainly hoping that federal judges up and down the line understand they have got to let all the votes be counted or they'll be seen as nothing more and it will be very transparent. as just a flunky for donald j. trump. >> kasie hunt, we talked a
little bit about pennsylvania and florida but you're looking at georgia. tell us why. >> yeah, it's a bit surprising. as i was listening to joe talk about florida and the -- what he's been saying is completely reflected in my reporting as well. that it is so incredibly close and that we simply don't know at this point how that's going to break down. but what has been surprising to me is that i have some strategists now saying they think that biden is more likely to win georgia perhaps than florida which is really something considering, you know, florida has been on the map as a swing state the entire time. we have been talking about georgia for several election cycles now, thinking, okay, it will go blue, no, really this time and it's never happened but there's a couple things going on. one is that stacey abrams has been doing infrastructure work down there with black voters and two, the antipathy toward trump is just off the charts. joe, we talked about the suburbs
of atlanta, places like buck head, where there is this in intolerance for what they have been seeing out of the white house and the character of the president all the way along that it has really accelerated the change along with the demographics and other things in georgia. so you know, if biden can put georgia on the map we have a much different potential outcome here or at the very least we have a different election night potentially because then all of a sudden, late results from wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania become less important as you're trying to count up to 270 electoral college votes before the end of the evening. >> so jason johnson, i asked steve that question about a viewers' guide to make the point that joe just made. we know may a lot about florida or north carolina or georgia and ohio, but pennsylvania, wisconsin and michigan, people have to be ready for the first numbers to show donald trump with a lead and have some
patience which is difficult to see how it plays out. what will you be watching on tuesday night? what will be the indicators to you early on or as we get deeper into the night about which way this race is tilting? >> the most important thing, i pay attention to in pennsylvania, arizona, texas, it's not just the raw numbers but taking a look at first-time voters and voters who skipped out on 2016. if you voted in 2008 and 2020 and skipped 2016 you're more likely an obama coalition voter and you were turned off by hillary clinton and donald trump. and when i see those who skipped 2016 or first-time voters that predicts very, very well for joe biden. i'm looking at election day numbers and saying, okay when you do the exit polls how many same-day voters didn't vote in
2016? it looks to me right now that donald trump is probably going to have anywhere from a 6% to 10% same-day election lead in places like pennsylvania and places like florida in order to make sure he has the state. i think those are things are key. this is really important. we just saw in wisconsin a new federal court ruling that says they're going to end the seven-day window in order to count votes. this is just a slow-moving coup. it is absolutely illegitimate to stop people from voting. i said before, if i'm in line at 6:59 i don't get to vote until 8:50 my vote still counts. so we're also going to being looking at -- what i'm looking at is what kind of push back at the state level if you have enough votes coming in at 8:00, 7:59 that they believe are going to change the result. if for some reason joe biden is ahead in michigan and ahead in wisconsin and in pennsylvania after election day, donald trump
and his minions will immediately flip the script and say we need to count these extra ballots. >> yeah. >> that's a good point. >> so peter baker, we have two pretty big news stories going on. we had the stock market crash, earlier this week and it rebounded yesterday. we have good gdp numbers and the economy is still suffering. 7.4% growth. on the other side of that, over 1,000 people dead yesterday from covid-19 while members of donald trump's own family are trying to play it down. what do you sense covering this race is going to have the bigger impact going in to the final weekend? covid or a bump in the gdp? >> well, you know, i think covid obviously because it's surging right now. it's dominating attention and it's dominating attention that it's not helpful to the president. a thousand deaths is huge obviously to have donald trump jr. last night to say that the
deaths are almost nothing is flying in the face of reality. i think you can't argue with a disease. you can't argue with people being in the hospital. you can't argue with people being sick. you can convince people that the economy is better than it really is, perhaps, but you cannot convince people they're seeing it in their own lives the impact of the pandemic and the president wants to say it's the media talking about it but it's not. it's about 229,000 deaths so far in this country and that's just in the last eight months. that's a very hard toll to simply wipe away. now, a lot of republicans who wish he had talked about the economy more because he could have used those numbers that came out yesterday as a jumping off point to make his best pitch, i built the economy before, i'll build it again. the voters showed in polls they give him more credit on the economy than biden and that's the best selling point that the republicans thought he had, but he's back focusing on hunter biden or other topics and he
even talked about it at the rally himself. i got the calls, people don't know what they're talking about saying i should be talking about the economy. so he's reflecting out loud the conversations being had behind closed doors and basically saying i'm not listening to the people. they're not here, i am. i won, so i know what i'm doing. >> he just can't do it. he is the definition politically of a one-trick pony. he can do one thing. he can scratch away at cultural divisions, at wedge issues. but not promoting a 7.4% growth in the economy going into the final weekend. a lot of people on his own staff and a lot of republicans in washington that are banging their heads against the wall. peter baker, thank you. congratulations to you and susan. the man who ran washington, just a fantastic biography of james baker. what a great book and a great story. thank you. also this programming note.
joe, willie and i will be running election night coverage on peacock. nbcuniversal's new streaming service. we'll tell you what need to be watching for as the votes come in with top election day analysts and reporters who cover the key states every day. plus, top pulitzer prize writing reporters like bob woodward, david ignatius and campaign veterans like david plouffe and jim messina. all on peacock on election day, tuesday, starting at 6:00 p.m. eastern time and if you haven't yet joined the peacock revolution, go to peacock tv.com to sign up for free. you can download it on your smart tv or smartphone as you would any app. >> already -- >> even i can do it. go to the app store.
>> we have been watching actually -- willie, we have been watching 30 rock nonstop. >> i love it. it gets better with time. >> it's just incredible. >> it gets better with time. >> peacock -- you know what i'm excited for? you know the kids are all on the streaming platforms now and for the kids who will tell you have jon meacham talking about the james k. polk administration all night long. so you'll be watching. >> this is a consequential election that we're honored to be up covering it and we'll be up all night long. >> to let you know not only about the polk administration. willie and i to prove we're down with the kids we're going to be breakdancing at about 8:00 or 9:00. >> with our boom boxes. >> a trend with the kids. >> with our boom boxes. that's right, baby.
president trump's campaign event will actually follow coronavirus guidelines but not by choice apparently. we'll explain that ahead. plus, a grim new toll in the coronavirus crisis. 9 million confirmed infections in the u.s. but the president still says we're rounding the curve. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. you're watching "morning joe." we'll be right back.
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he said we're rounding the corner, it's going away. we're learning how to live with it. no, he expects us how to learn how to die with it. >> our vaccine will eradicate the virus and, by the way, we have it. but whether we have it or not, it's rounding the turn. it's rounding the turn. >> he's doing nothing. we're learning to die and donald trump has waved the white flag abandoned our families and surrendered to the virus. >> it's incredible the job we have done and the american
people have done. this could have been 2 million lives. >> president trump's super spreader events, he's spreading more of the virus around the country. >> i had it, did you know that? i had to get back on the trail. i said this is not good timing. one thing when you're president you have a lot of doctors but they gave me a drug, moderna. i woke up the next morning, i felt like i could have taken the toughest, meanest person in this group. the bottom line though is you're going to get better. if i can get better, anybody can get better. >> both candidates with very different messages on the coronavirus yesterday in battleground florida. covid-19 infections are spreading at the fastest rates since the start of the pandemic. overnight the country hit the mark of 9 million coronavirus cases and the nation set a new record after topping 90,000 cases yesterday, surpassing wednesday's all-time high by almost 10,000.
982 deaths were reported yesterday alone bringing the country's death toll to nearly 230,000 and many top scientists believe this did not have to happen. let's bring in physician and fellow at the brookings institution, dr. patel, a former obama health director and an msnbc contributor. also with us infectious disease doctor, dr. william hazeltine. he's the author of "my life long fight against the disease, from polio to aids to covid-19." dr. hazeltine, these rallies where people are coming together by the thousands, do you have concerns that coronavirus will spread more rapidly if these rallies are held across the country? >> well, it's obvious that
they're spreading at these rallies. if you look at the number of people who are infected in the areas where he's going, in some places it's as high as perhaps 1 out of 20 people who are infected, coming to the rallies. even if you're outside, even if you're packed closely together, you don't have masks, you're likely to get infected. so these are dangerous rallies and it's emblematic of the administration's lack of care for how to protect this country from the infection. other countries have done it, we have failed miserably and now we have the highest rate we have ever had. in fact, the highest rate in the world by a long shot of any country in terms of the number of people infected and now the number of people dying. >> dr. patel, we're hearing from these stages from the president and his family straight up disinformation, that we're rounding the corner, rounding
the turn. a member of his family member said we're almost nothing in terms of deaths, meanwhile, some 1,000 people died yesterday and more than 90,000 cases a single day record yesterday. you know the truth. we know the truth. a lot of people in the country not hearing the truth so what's your position about where we are right now. you have been on us with for many months warning us that the fall and the winter will be dangerous times. that looks like it's happening right now. >> yeah, willie, good morning to you and to the team. i'm very worried not just about the numbers, willie, but if you look at where we are in the country. just the math. the entire map is lighting up with cases which is very different from the first two peaks where we had more of a regionalization to this. why that's concerning me, it's obvious that people are dying. deaths are real. it's not just the vulnerable elderly or i think what the president likes to portray that quote, people who are weak. everybody's weak because this
virus is that strong. but i think what's more concerning is that half of the counties in the united states do not have intensive unit capacity or the appropriate staffing. when you look at the map and the way it's going anywhere that creates an incredible shortage of health system and hospitalization capacity and that forces the doctors and technicians to make tough choices about who to take care of, how to make sure that people get access to the hospital bed. so when we talk about maybe hundred thousand cases a day knowing that a fixed percentage have to go to the hospital that creates an incredible disaster that i'm very worried about. >> dr. hazeltine, you heard dr. fauci entertain the idea that it's time for a national mask mandate. we are seeing drastic measures considered because of where the numbers show us this is where it's headed right now. from your position, what do you think we could be doing? we're not going to get the leadership from the president on the mitigation efforts we know
that. what could governors, what can local officials be putting in place right now to at least slow what seems to be coming? >> certainly, in direct answer to your question, we could be putting in mask mandates. we could be putting in a series of regulations about closing bars, limiting the numbers of people. we know that has a strong effect on reducing the transmission. the tragedy is the federal government has deliberately withheld its power to control this control this epidemic. we know that was a conscious decision thanks to the comments that jared kushner made to bob woodward. in other words, they calculated that all of the negatives would redound to the governors if they were responsible and if they were responsible for opening all of the positives won down to them. that's a malicious and vicious program toward the american people. and we are paying with it with our lives. >> kasie hunt, jump in.
>> yeah, dr. patel, a question for you about supplies on the front lines. we're seeing some reports that the stockpiles aren't where they need to be to handle all of the caseloads that we're going to be facing through the winter. have you been following that, has that been affecting you and what do you think the front line workers need from our federal government to make sure we have enough of this for the front line workers? >> kasie, thanks for that question. i think there's some impression probably because we are hearing about people buying, you know, n95 masks on the internet and that there's a perception that these supplies are well available, a couple of points. number one, most hospitals have supply but only hospitals and only for about 30 days. maybe a little longer in some cases. but those supplies are really
limited and you have hospital workers and people like me who have one n95 mask and reusing them. we're doing it safely, but if i'm exposed to somebody and i need to change out there's nothing to change to. so the supplies are still an issue. another point to make is that people i think are afraid to speak out about supplies being an issue because i think there's a perception that then they look like they're complaining, we don't have enough when the truth is that all of us are bracing for a supply shortage. we're also bracing candidly, kasie, where we're seeing tests being turned around in one to three days for the pcr tests but as we are kind of dealing with more and more patients coming in those turnaround times will be longer potentially at the critical time when we need the test results to come back faster and not slower. >> doctors patel and hazeltine,
thank you both for being on the show this morning. coming up, "new york times" jeremy peters joins us with his new reporting including a closing message from the rnc that may not be trump approved. "morning joe" is coming right back. is coming right back - [announcer] welcome to intelligent indoor grilling with the ninja foodi smart xl grill. just pick your protein, select your doneness, and let the grill monitor your food. it also turns into an air fryer.
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as we approach the top of the hour, jason johnson, i want to ask you about texas. the vote count certainly is different already compared to four years ago. what are you seeing? >> 94% of the entire vote in 2016 has already gone in in texas and that's before we head into the final weekend. over 10% of those voters are people are people who skipped 2016 or have no voting history
whatsoever. i think texas is the place to watch next tuesday. people who don't have a voting history are ones who don't get polled tend to vote democrat, is it a win for joe biden, no. and i think texas is actually the place to watch this year. more so than georgia or even florida. >> all right. jason johnson, thank you. and just ahead we'll go live to texas to find out what's happening on the ground can there. "morning joe" is back in a moment. is back in a moment you can't claim that as a dependent. because it's inanimate! [ sigh ] people ask ... what sort of a person should become a celebrity accountant? and, i tell them, "nobody should." hey, buddy. what's the damage? [ on the phone ] i bought it! the waterfall? nope! my new volkswagen.
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chariots of you're fired. i think when you're running it's harder for the flies to land on your head. >> welcome back to "morning joe." it is friday, october 30th. can you believe it, guys? it's crazy. >> do you remember when the show started, willie, how you'd run into the studio that way. >> yes. >> going down the long hall. >> in your tank top. >> in your tank top. >> in slow motion too oddly. >> yeah. it was great. >> you did a good job. >> those were the days, my
friend. >> long time ago. >> kasie hunt is still with us. let's bring in jonathan lemire. "new york times" reporter, jeremy peters. and donny deutsch is with us as well. >> jonathan lemire, what are you hearing from both campaigns? we're going into the final four days, obviously. one campaign as dave wasserman wrote has momentum on their side and the other does not appear to. at least in my conversations with people on both sides, i'm starting to sense that on the phone. >> joe, you're right. these are two campaigns that have similar feels on the race and one obviously feeling a little better than the other. both candidates are going to be heading through the midwest battlegrounds today. that upper midwest trio we know so well. from a very different position though. the biden camp is doing so from a position of strength and both parties agree the polling suggests that joe biden has a
consistent, if lead, in these states. wisconsins, the michigans, pennsylvania. around 5, 6, 7, points. it's closer in the sunbelt. and in the biden team i was talking privately to one of their advisers in the last 24 hours. they understand that like -- places, states like florida, north carolina are going to be very close. it's a matter of election day turnout which is an interesting moment here because the biden campaign feels very good about how well they have done so far in their early voting. they feel that they have banked an extraordinary amount of votes already that's going to be difficult for the president to make up. now, we know the president -- that has been their school of thought the whole time. their theory of the case is that they figure they'd go into election day facing a deficit and that they would turn out voters at a higher rate. to be sure, they have been in the field much longer. the republican ground game is more robust this time around than the biden team, in part because the democrats pulled a
lot of their workers, volunteers off of the streets for several months as the pandemic hit. the republicans, you know, for safety measures and the republicans did not do that. they stayed in the field, even as democrats became more of a virtual and telephone operation and how that plays out we'll know in four days. but the democrats are confident they'll turn out voters. both sides acknowledge that the trump campaign would need maybe even up to two-thirds of the voters turning out on election day in states like florida, north carolina and georgia in order for them to capture them and keep open his path to 270. >> yeah. yet, jeremy peters, you look at the polls that are coming out, the public polls. we have seen that have biden up five in florida. up four in florida yesterday. up five in ohio.
again, not to keep going back to the -- to the same thing, again, i don't want to be george bailey. i want to believe again but i don't believe these polls and one of the reasons i don't believe these polls is that neither side -- neither the biden team nor the trump team believe they're up by four or five points in ohio and florida. >> right. and that would especially in florida, joe, as you well note, defy history. i mean, the presidential races, statewide races of this magnitude are not this close in florida and they haven't been for quite a while. so there's that. right? i think the trump people that i'm talking to, the republicans that i'm talking to, are focused right now on those upper midwestern states where the president will be today. and those states i think really illustrate the biggest problem that trump has in his path to re-election and the frustration that i hear from republicans about those state in particular
is very distressing today. i mean, they cannot believe that he's not been able to stick to his message. they cannot believe that virtually none of what he talked about in 2016, you know, with his talk of the forgotten man, talk of bringing jobs back, and building an economy that works for the average person, none of that is coming through in his message now which is predominantly one of grievance, resentment and blame and he needed that to carry him through the midwestern states. you can see that in the private polling, the latest polling out of michigan and north carolina show he's lost ground with noncollege white voters. that's the core of his constituency. so to combine the loss of those noncollege white voters with his staggering losses in the suburbs among educated white voters, and
it's just not looking very doable for him in michigan and wisconsin. pennsylvania is getting a little tighter because, you know, as republicans do, they're coming home. and that's what pollsters i'm talking to are seeing in their numbers and it is going to get a little tighter over the next few days. does that mean trump can pull it off? i don't know. but as we're looking at the numbers one thing that we should be prepared to see. >> right. yeah. no, it's -- again, you're seeing in florida and across those upper midwest states if you're seeing a poll that's a four or a five point lead, good luck. i'd be -- i would be shocked if any of those swing states are beyond three, four points. if they are, if any of them are, then joe biden will be on his way to a historic rout. but one of the unique challenges that the president has, the big
challenge he has, in upper -- in the upper midwest has to do with covid. obviously there's an outbreak going on right now and yesterday "the los angeles times" had a story that said it's -- as covid-19 rages across wisconsin's small towns, hostility towards trump intensifies and therein lies the big rub with the big rallies that's having. this year, as a man supposed to be in charge of the covid reaction for -- >> spreading it. >> for small towns across the midwest who see these images, it's not seen as a positive for many working class white americans who voted for donald trump at record numbers last time, but are now in towns that actually -- >> look at that map. i mean, health officials are confirming that these events are helping to spread the virus or leading to more cases. i mean, that's just fact, it's
not fiction. to have the president on stage saying covid, covid, covid while his audience is spreading covid amongst each other, it's got to be a bridge too far for some. especially those with pre-existing conditions. >> and you certainly -- at least, you know, we feel for the people out in that audience. >> for sure. >> they have been misled. and we hope that they're okay. i know that there are a lot of reports that people are getting hospitalized and go these rallies, that covid is spreading, in communities where he's having the rallies, the incidents of covid is going up. but politically, the political impact of this again is overwhelmingly negative for the president if you look at the polls and you look at what democrats are saying. that every time images like this are shown on the television, it turns off senior citizen voters, not just in florida and arizona,
but across the upper midwest. it will be interesting to see the tradeoff. the president actually may be getting people, 35 to let's say 50, 55, that aren't so concerned about covid while turning off senior citizens. it's one of the tradeoffs. >> that event right there to conclude is against cdc, his own government's guidelines. but we're in the final four days of the campaign, so every move matters. today is all about the midwest, both donald trump and joe biden will make stops in minnesota and wisconsin. trump in rochester, minnesota, and green bay, wisconsin. biden in st. paul, minnesota and milwaukee. donald trump rallies in michigan just outside of detroit while biden holds a drive-in rally in des moines, iowa. so willie, and these are the plans so far. i know that biden and obama will
be having a big event this weekend as well. >> yeah. i mean, they're going to the places they need to go and if you look at the president in wisconsin again today, one of the cross tab numbers in all of the polling we're talking about all week that's stayed with me is in "the washington post"/abc poll where 70% of the people in the state of wisconsin said they're concerned either they or someone they know will contract coronavirus. so that's not just people acknowledging that it's real, that we're not rounding the corner as the president puts it but they're directly worried they're going to get it. so when he says these things up on a stage, it feels good in that place, in that rally. he draws those cheers. but he's not thinking about the people who aren't there in the state of wisconsin who are concerned and who know that we set another record yesterday with some 90,000 cases. a thousand people died yesterday of covid-19 that were objectively not rounding the corner. so jonathan lemire, let's talk about election night. we were just going through some
of this with steve kornacki about the plan for the president, the plan for his campaign team about wisconsin, about pennsylvania, about michigan, that if some of that vote comes in early, that we get that vote that's day of voting that shows donald trump with a lead but we're still waiting for a lot of the mail-in voting to be counted. will they come out and declare victory? will they say then, well, we won, look at the numbers, night of, don't worry about what comes later and launch us into the legal fight that some people have been worried about. >> willie, many are close to the president are advising him to do just that. they haven't settled on a stream just yet, but let's remember they have been laying the ground work for this for months. the president night after night whether it's at a campaign rally or on twitter is tossing out unproven, unverified allegations of voter fraud, particularly mail-in voting.
let's be clear there's no evidence of mail fraud. mail-in voting which has been used in several states for a number of cycles is proven to be very safe and very legitimate. no suggestion that there's fraud. tar more states have opened it up, far more americans are voting early. we are seeing americans vote early in record numbers and in turnout on a whole. we are on pace for the highest turnout in a century. 1908 as many voters are going to vote as expected to this time around. some states we will know fairly early on or at least some point while it's still tuesday on election days states like north carolina, florida. potentially arizona. states that have experienced counting early votes, mail-in votes particularly arizona and who are counting all along and we'll have a good sense of the states then. the states up in the midwest
though, michigan and wisconsin as well as pennsylvania, far different story. pennsylvania will take days to count. both campaigns acknowledged that. talking to a democratic adviser close to the biden campaign yesterday who said if this comes down to pennsylvania we are not going to know for a week or more perhaps and there are those great -- who have fears that the president that night from the oval office whether it's in an address will say, we won. how can you expect us that the margin shrinks, what's going on and hammering home misconduct. >> jonathan lemire's analysis is so effective and what makes it even better he does it from the studio with silhouette painting. stunning paintings. >> i like to consider myself a
renaissance man. >> i think -- i remember seeing silhouettes -- no, my great-grandmother's house. yes. i saw those silhouettes they scream at you. the on thing my great-grandmother had that was bold enough to do a silhouette of dogs' legs and there's a silhouette of nothing more than the legs of a dog. >> i don't know. >> it's a bold move, bold move. but -- >> my next -- my next work when i -- i hope to have -- i hope to have finished by election day is i'm working on a silhouette of mike barnicle so i'll keep you posted on that. >> that would be very good. very good. but yeah, that background -- >> it's hideous. >> it is hideous. he looks like he's in the hotel room from "groundhog day." why don't you go downstairs
after this and watch "jeopardy!" with the gang. so donny deutsch, we have four days left and we have talked about donald trump and his inability to stick to a message and we saw it yesterday i think better example of that than ever before. that the president was handed a 7.4 number for a gdp growth. of course, that comes after a big -- you know, we understand the context. the economy is still hurting but any politician in america would go out and do nothing but hammer 7.4% gdp growth. he just couldn't do it. he still believes that his message is division, is class division, is race division. and he's taking that 42%, 43% strategy all the way to the
bitter end. >> yeah. donald trump is like a little league catcher who had his best moment years ago and goes back to it. no matter what anybody says to him this is what he'll continue to do at his rallies. i want to pick up on the rallies as far as how they play. parties usa did a poll, if you're a persuadable voter, are you favorable towards him or unfavorable. in arizona it's 74-7. in florida 60-13. north carolina 67-8 and in pennsylvania, 58-18. i don't remember ever seeing poll numbers about anything like that. persuadable voters what president trump will present over the final four days is so toxic to them. i think those are numbers that stick with you. the other numbers i want to focus on versus 2016, in 2016,
15% of the voters decided in last week of the campaign and this week it's only 4% or 5% tops. out of those voters, 30% of them in wisconsin went for trump last -- i mean, 30 point difference, 17% difference in florida. so the combination of what people are seeing for the next few days are the spreader events and that there's no longer this kind of undecided group. by the way, undecided people are those who don't like either candidate and those numbers are breaking dramatically towards biden, i'm not quite sure over the next 72 hours or so what's going to change this election. you know, at the bottom of the screen there we see that number it's 229/934. if you see on the average a thousand americans are dying a day, so that will continue over the next four days, i'll put that in the bucket, i'm not sure what the hell donald trump is
doing. >> let's look at the new ad by the rnc and jeremy peters is reporting on this. it sort of acknowledges what trump is avoiding. take a look. >> thank goodness it's finally time to vote. what about the democrats? repeal the tax cuts that will cost me over $1,000. i can't afford that. higher taxes on employers, but my husband is looking for work. ending private insurance? we have had the same pediatrician for years. okay, let's look at republicans. protect medicare. keep taxes low, more job creation. okay. this choice is clear. >> jeremy peters, what stands out to you in terms of that ad and what's it actually appealing to? >> right, well, this is the message that many republicans wish president trump would focus on. it's a message that many senate candidates are focusing on.
but it's traditional bread and butter republican stuff. the democrats are going to raise your taxes, they're going to mismanage your health care and hand it over to the government. i mean, it's pretty easy and these are persuasive issues. i mean, these have been poll tested. obviously the rnc wouldn't be putting more than $2 million behind the ads if they didn't think it was going to move people but the problem is as you look at president trump's messaging coming from the stage at the rallies and coming from a lot of the commercials, it's all about stoking fear, racial division, and the sense that, you know, the country is going to go to hell if biden is elected. this is a much softer way of saying that. but it's also a way that republicans have seen in their data and can see in the poll numbers of their senate candidates it actually works. and i think the reason this is so significant is because as the
race tightens in states like iowa, for example, i saw a private republican survey yesterday that had joni ernst up in iowa and trump up significantly in iowa now that the poll may be an outlier, who knows, but republicans thinks that it's a sign that things are shifting back in their direction in the redder states that flipped for trump last time. if they can focus in on this issue of health care, of taxes, that's a whole lot better than trying to scare people. >> right. well -- >> they don't have a health care plan. >> it's crazy and kasie, first of all, that was obviously -- obviously targeted for suburban female voter, educated, wearing a mask and talking about issues,
right? but we could play that again, but did you all pick up -- i could have gotten this wrong. i think she was talking about her husband's job. and it was like -- she said my husband's looking for work. are you looking for work? are you? did i get that right? let's play it again. >> all right. yeah. let's make sure. >> thank goodness it's finally time to vote. what about the democrats? repeal the tax cuts that will cost me over $1,000, i can't afford that. higher taxes on employers, but my husband is looking for work. >> okay. >> i can't do this. let's look at republicans. protect medicare, keep taxes low. more job creation. okay. this choice is clear. >> wow. so kasie, my husband's looking
for work. it fits -- it fits actually -- from 1953. it fits right in to -- it fits right in to donald trump going, hey, little ladies i'm going to keep your neighborhood free of black people coming in. i mean, it is so insulting to suburban voters so here we have the republican party trying to reach out to women. educated women in the suburbs who probably, i'm thinking, probably have a job. but they're talking about their husband's work and again, we're not overstating this so much. it just shows that, again, that their mindset is not from another election year. it's from like another era. >> joe, suburban women are
concerned about their own jobs, they're concerned about their families. that could mean their husband's job, that could mean their jobs. in many cases, women are working more than one job and there are plenty who are bread winners for their family. yes, the frame on this is incredibly limited especially in the age of covid when so in people and women in particular have been so hard hit by the economic impacts of this. but you know the other thing that stuck out to me, joe, is that there is another word that's missing from that ad and that's the word trump. all you hear about are republicans. these are issues that the president is not in that ad at all in the final weeks. and, you know, i mean, let's call a spade a spade here. if you're for the most part a republican candidate trying to run for re-election the president is a nightmare for you because of these suburban republican women we have been talking about. i mean, they -- we have talked
about this theme broadly for many months now. they can't win without him. they need every single republican trump vote that's out there. but they can't win with him either. they are in many cases running behind where he is. the only place where they're potentially on offense with the republican senate candidate is in michigan where their candidate is one of the only ones that actually can get any distance from president trump because he hasn't been in washington for the last year or so. i mean, the numbers -- biden's in iowa, right? president trump won iowa ten points and we're talking about joni ernst potentially losing that senate seat and a margin way closer than it was? this is why the people who are, you know, behind the scenes privately thinking that it's going to be a landslide for joe biden this is why. montana is another example. it shouldn't be close. president trump won montana by 20 points but instead there's a
competitive senate race there. they have a strong candidate, they have other dynamics at work. but the president -- people are reacting to what they have seen for the last four years. and it is very obvious in all of the data and the people that i'm talking to are saying it's much more likely joe biden wins the presidency and republicans narrowly, narrowly, narrowly hang on to the senate for the reasons we saw in the ad but not because of president trump. >> we should remind people that half line that joe picked up on in that ad about husbands going back to work was screamed from a stage by president trump in lansing, michigan. he said i'm getting your husbands back to work. i'm getting your husbands back to work. we have talked about suburban housewives, saving the suburbs for suburban housewives. we should point out that the government figures show four times as many women left the workforce in the month of september, the most recent month we have for data, than did men. wrong on every count you can
imagine. >> wow. >> but donny deutsch, that ad did look quaint. like a political ad from a different era where you're taking about issues going in to the final weekend of a presidential election and these important senate elections. but nothing, nothing -- no ad can overshadow what president trump says from the stages every day. >> no. i like ike ad it's stunning the planet he is on and who he's talking to. look, women are going to decide this thing. women are going to take him out of office and mika, you and i talk about this a lot, about the superiority of women and women have a protective instinct and women are sharper than men and women will push this over the line for trump. i want to congratulate you guys on peacock. you know, we like to say that kids are the future, but streaming is the future. and i'm going to invite myself -- >> it literally is. >> for those kids who don't
understand that, that's the world right now. you know, i don't want to jeff shell's job here. but i'm going to invite myself. >> there's no doubt. willie and i were talking about this before, we're down with the kids. we'll be breakdancing. willie's got a boom box. it's absolutely incredible. i'm wearing my air jordans. we'll be doing -- >> wow. >> okay. >> you're not down with the kids. jeff shell is down with the kids going to the streaming. your mic is not clicked on. fix that. >> hey, donny, can you have your kids fix your wi-fi? >> but the peacock thing, it's really exciting election night. i'm serious, joe, willie and i will be running election coverage on peacock, nbcuniversal's new streaming service. we'll have top election data
analysts and reports who cover the key states every day and plus pulitzer prize winning reporters and campaign veterans, presidential historians, all on peacock on election day. tuesday, starting at 6:00 p.m. eastern time. go to peacock tv.com to sign up for free. you can also download it on your smart tv or smart phone just as you would any app. >> or. >> even i can do it. >> yeah. >> that's saying a lot. >> you can ask your kids how to do it. >> i can download an app. >> but 22 million streams, willie, and jeff shell spoke yesterday to investors. a little -- 22 million users on peacock now. it's just absolutely exploding and he said yesterday that based on their analytics, 92% of those 22 million people they have signed up specifically to see you at the big board on tuesday night. >> wow.
>> playing the role of steve kornacki. you have been steve kornacki's understudy for a decade. >> i have. >> now you bring all of kornacki's gifts without any of his rage and peacock subscriptions, through the roof. >> i love that, that narrative. no one with less rage than steve kornacki. i'm going out today right after the show, khaki shopping to get my kornacki on. >> yes. >> i will be the poor man's steve kornacki. he has been filling me in on the board so i think it will be fun tuesday night. >> it will be great. >> i can't wait. >> we're really honored to be covering the election. it's so consequential. and where else would we be but together? thank you both very much. texas is infamous for having one of the lowest turnout rates in the country, but according to the texas tribune, the lone star state, is only about 300,000
votes short of 2016's turnout already. we'll look at the state of the race there next on "morning joe." >> you know we won that big supreme court case against your governor so what the hell happened? why isn't it open? still not open? you know we sued, we won the case. what are they appealing, she's appealing the case. hey, governor, let your state open. get your kids back to school, governor. not a good governor. and you know what else? i'm also getting your husbands, they want to get back to work, right? they want to get back to work. we're getting your husbands back to work and everybody wants it. and the cure can never be worse than the problem itself. (a mix of announcer voices) we are heading towards the 2020 presidential election, ....how to ensure your vote counts......because of covid-19
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live look at new york city, 34 past the hour. it's cloudy, it's rainy. one of those days. >> willie, look at that city. this is a city, as we listen to the stones, new york's official british band. the things that are going on in new york city -- i mean, you have guys standing on sidewalks and actually being eaten alive, swallowed into the depths of hell where rats are all over them. you hear that great story yesterday? >> yes, i did. of course, for the viewers, joe is not making that up. he's alive thank goodness. but he was swallowed on the sidewalk. >> he was swallowed by the sidewalk. let's look at the pictures again of new york. you know, the biggest problem right now, think about all of
the house wives in new york city right now, that they're sad because their husbands aren't at work, right? >> right. >> i mean -- >> my gosh. >> they're listening to jack benny, right? >> waiting for them to get up so they can make him some coffee. >> i know. >> make him breakfast and get him ready for his day. >> can you believe -- how is one so isolated that he would say, hey, i'm trying to get your husbands back to work to a crowd of women in 2020. >> it's amazing. as you guys know, you know christina, my wife very well. when i get home to the apartment every day, i hand her my briefcase, there's a hot meal waiting. i take off my top hat and give it to her. i'm just kidding. she runs two of her own companies that she started by herself. but to your question, donald trump, how do you get that isolated? maybe by spending the last four
years in a penthouse with the mirrors and the gold and the same designer that saddam hussein had. i don't know. let's turn back to the race. kamala harris -- >> that was brought up, by the way. >> yeah. we needed that. kamala harris will be in texas today making stops in ft. worth, houston and mcallen in the rio grande valley while the continued record breaking early vote gives democrats hope of pulling out an electoral upset in texas. the most recent "new york times"/siena college poll has trump ahead of biden. texas has not backed a democrat for president since 1976 or elected one statewide since 1994. let's bring in ceo of the texas tribune, evan smith and professor at the lyndon b. johnson school of public affairs at the university of texas, msnbc contributor, victoria defrancesco soto. good morning to you both.
evan, let me begin with you. is texas fool's gold for democrats right now in terms of the race or does joe biden have a real shot at winning there? >> i'm a big skeptic. we keep hearing this is the time that texas will turn blue and it doesn't happen. i'm not a skeptic anymore. texas is in play. and the president tweeted at 2:30, way ahead in texas, no, you're not. this is the first cycle when we do not know the outcome of the election four days out. >> so evan, as -- i mean, they're spending time there. kamala harris will be down there and they'll talk about immigration and families being separated at the border. we are seeing massive early vote, particularly around austin. places where you see progressive votes and young people as well. what is the scenario if you play it out where joe biden could pull this out? what would have to happen? >> i know there's a lot of
attention to senator harris being in mcallen and that's important because the latino vote in texas will be significant for the biden/harris ticket to win but i would pay attention to ft. worth. only one democrat running for president has won tarrant county and that's lbj in 1964. beto o'rourke narrowly beat cruz in tarrant county so i'd be watching ft. worth and be watching the suburban areas, austin, williamson, hays county they're not traditionally voting for democrats but there's an opportunity for the biden/harris ticket to do and it's a legitimate and open question to what happens on tuesday. >> it seems like a lot of national trends are applying to texas. i have talked about it a good bit. the guy i served with in
congress in one of the most conservative districts in america was comfortably, pete sessions was comfortably in a dallas suburbs and in the district that no one thought a democrat could win in and yet the democrats took it last time. i guess i'd be is more skeptical statewide of the democrats' chances except for the fact that none other than ted cruz keeps saying that republicans need to watch out. democrats could win the lone star state. >> right. and this gets to the purpling of the suburbs which evan has talked about. we are seeing the suburbs become increasingly competitive. so we always knew that the urban areas where you had more diversity were good places for the democrats to compete in. but over the last couple of cycles, we have seen the suburbs turn purple. in one of these suburbs we have an open race. we have the first afro latina
running for a democratic post and she has a shot at winning. this isn't tarrant county, one of the traditional red areas. no matter what happens on tuesday, whether joe biden wins or whether donald trump wins by a couple of percentage points, i feel very comfortable in saying that texas is purpling. whether that's a deep red purple or more of a purple purple but no matter what happens look at how the state is trending. the suburbs no longer are a deadlock for republicans. and you're also seeing folks fed up with the administration. they have had enough. >> jonathan lemire? >> evan, great to see you. there's no question it's remarkable that texas is in play at all. a biden adviser though that i spoke to recently said they felt a little better about it a few weeks ago than they do now. they think it's a sense of the republicans coming home and worried about the fallout from the former vice president's remark at the debate about
ending the oil industry. i want to get your take on that. we heard about how that's playing in pennsylvania. as part of the fracking discussion there. but it has -- it hits home incredibly hard in texas. what have you picked up on in terms of the ramifications of biden's remark in the lone star state? >> it's big issue in the state of like texas and the fact that republican leaders, the lieutenant governors and other, have made hay of that, in the last couple of days to put this over the top for the president but look, so many people have voted early over the last two weeks in texas that something that happens in the eighth or ninth inning i'm not sure is enough to have the effect it would in the normal election cycle. what you heard earlier is true. we're in 95% of our record setting turnout just as of today with a full day left and an election day. we may turn out 12 million texans which would be a third of the best-ever day. whether it's the vice president's comments at the
debate or anything else that happens at the 11th hour i'm not convinced that the shape of the election can change very much at this point because so many people have already voted. what we're seeing in texas is a worst to first in terms of voter turnout and i think the story of tuesday regardless of who wins the presidency is that texas will have finally shed its worst in the country voter turnout label and that would be a great thing for democracy in texas and a great thing for civic engagement. >> victoria, do you agree? >> i do. i absolutely agree. we had the dubious honor of being the state with the lowest turnout. the other dubious honor is that we're the state with the hardest voting, right? it's hard to register to vote. it's hard to vote. and over the last couple election cycles the republican administration at the state level has been making it harder and harder. they put in place strict voter i.d. they didn't extend it for
the pandemic. we have gone from not only worst to first, but because we have seen texas voters overcome so many of the institutionalized obstacles that have been put in front of them and i think it's been mobilizing. the texas voters said we have had enough and i think this is really powerful to the point of civic engagement that evan just mentioned. >> evan smith, thank you very much. up next, we'll stay on texas and the race that victoria mentioned just a moment ago. one democrat who is hoping to make history in her bid for u.s. congress, she will join us next. . congress, she will join us next.
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slept in the same kiddie pool the night we fled domestic abuse and had nowhere else to go. that was a home. then, there was the shelter we stayed at while mom got back on her feet. but moving from place to place, one thing stayed the same. the classrooms where my teachers encouraged me. the lunchroom where i always had a meal. my school was a home too and that's why i was able to get a full scholarship to college, become an educator and eventually i ran for school board here in texas. >> what a powerful -- now she's
running as the democratic candidate for u.s. congress in texas' 24th district. candace valenzuela joins us now. candace, welcome back. how do you think texas is doing in terms of early voting and . > now she's running as the democratic candidate in, candace van valenzuela joins us now. how do you think texas is doing in terms of early voting, and democrats stepping up, and what do you think your candidacy has to do with it? >> well, i have to say it's been electric here in texas, especially over the last couple of weeks. early voting started a week ere yerl than it traditionally would. the first day of early voting people were lined up at 5:45 a 7:00 a.m. opening. in my race just yesterday we surpassed our 2016 total turnout. so we're expected to see a whole lot of new voters, young voters, voters of color, and we are trying to make sure that as folks are going to the polls, they're informed, they're protected. we're telling them what they need to bring with them, and we're just trying to keep those lines of communication open.
if anybody would like to help with that, you can go to my website, candacefor24.com. we're looking for volunteers to be on the phones with folks to get them there safely. >> candace, victoria defrancesco soto is with us, and she has a question for you. >> so candace, i want to hear more about what women on the ground in the suburbs of dallas, fort worth are saying to you. you know, we saw that republican ad earlier today that we talked about on "morning joe" that women are concerned about their husbands getting jobs. is it that or is it women looking to how they are going to get back on their feet, how they are going to get jobs, and what else is pressing on the conscious of black, brown, and white women in these texas suburbs? >> i mean, that ad is frankly quite insulting as we are seeing hundreds of thousands of women across the country losing their
jobs. these jobs that they've treasured, jobs that gave them fulfillme fulfillment, and their kids do too. our families give us fulfillment as well, but to have to feel as though we're forced out of the work force because of the demands placed on us due to covid-19, it's tragic, and so many of the moms that i'm talking to, so many of the families that i'm talking to are concerned about getting back to work, but getting back to work safely. they're concerned about getting their kids back to school, but getting them back in school safely, and when you have a federal government that fails to acknowledge that covid-19 exists, actively thwarts people trying to follow the science and doesn't want to make sure that we have the adequate protective gear in order to get us into the position to have a flourishing economy and to have flourishing educations, moms are going to be communicating with their votes at the polls. they want to see action, but they want it to be pragmatic. they want it to be based in
facts and reality, and that's just not what we've been getting over these past few months. >> hey, candace, it's willie geist, great to have you on the show this morning. i want to ask you about your district, the 24th, which includes a bunch of suburbs from kind of between dallas and fort worth for people who don't know the district. and i was looking back at some of the voting data there, in 2012 your district voted by more than 20 points for ted cruz. six years later, that same district goes by three or four points for beto o'rourke against ted cruz. so what is happening in your district? how has it been moving historically and even since beto o'rourke won the district two years ago? >> you know, this district was hand drawn by the incumbent who's announced his retirement last year, during the tom delay years, and i think that he didn't anticipate much like any of the folks who drew their districts for themselves didn't anticipate the fact that texas is young and changing every single day.
this district is now a suburban majority person of color district. it's very well-educated. it's very surprising when i describe this district to folk who is don't live here, there are more ph.d.s here than there are cows. this is the kind of district that is responsive to an administration that follows the science, is responsive to an administration that cares about families and health care and good paying jobs, and that's not this administration. >> candace valenzuela, the democratic candidate for u.s. congress in texas's 24th district. thank you. and victoria, defrancesco soto thank you as well. great to have you both on. coming up, covid katss hcas another all-time high yesterday as the president bragged that he gets bigger campaign crowds than ronald reagan. what the president failed to mention is that reagan's campaign didn't make people sick, potentially deadly.
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hundreds of people gathered for a president trump campaign rally in bemidji, and according to state health officials at least nine people who went to the rally have now tested positive for covid-19. >> one case was known to be infectious, there were two hospitalizations that were associated with that, one who was in intensive care. >> to shuttle all these people back to their cars, the trump campaign hired 40 buses. officials say the buses were delayed and people had to wait to get back to their cars. police tell us there were about a half dozen supporters who were transported to hospitals for a variety of medical reasons. >> the president's rally drew thousands with little social distancing and few masks, and in a separate challenge in the 87 degree heat, multiple people passed out, 12 taken to the hospital, and the president said
this as a fire truck sprayed water into the crowd. >> are they doing that on purpose? are they friend or foe? >> covid in minnesota. >> that looks like fun. >> hypothermia in nebraska, and heat exhaustion in florida. the health risks of a trump rally. >> triple threat there, willie geist. it's dangerous to your health to go to those things, man. >> come on. >> yeah, i mean, start with the gathering on its own for covid reasons, and then is an additional layer. the larger problem is that you're smushing a bunch of people together in a time when we're racing toward new records of infections and deaths are near a thousand a day and donald trump is carrying on with his rhetoric as if that's not happening. >> right. >> you know, other people in his family are just missing the seriousness of this. it's all gone away, donald trump keeps saying we're turning the corners. we keep setting records for the number of coronavirus cases every day, and we had a
thousand, i think over a thousand people died of covid-19 yesterday, and just to put this in perspective, that's more people dying in one day than died in u.s. fatalities in afghanistan over the past decade. donald trump talks a lot about how long we've been in afghanistan and soldiers that are still getting killed in afghanistan and the marines, more people died yesterday of covid in america. you know, we just, again, now take for granted every day, but more people died yesterday of covid in america than died in the afghanistan war, u.s. soldiers over the past decade. >> today is all about the midwest. both donald trump and joe biden will make stops in minnesota and wisconsin. trump in rochester, minnesota, and green bay, wisconsin, biden in st. paul, minnesota and
milwaukee. trump also rallies in michigan just outside of detroit while biden holds a drive-in rally in des moines, iowa. really. >> so we know where their focus is. let's look at the polling this morning four days out. in pennsylvania the latest quinnipiac university poll shows joe biden ahead there by seven points, 51-44. a couple of polls out of florida, monmouth university gives joe biden a six-point advantage, 51 to 45% in that poll, and quinnipiac has biden ahead by three in the state 45 to 42. in ohio, the quinnipiac poll shows biden in by five points, 48 to 43, and in north carolina the latest "new york times" sienna college poll puts joe biden ahead by three points there as well, 48 to 45. also iowa, president trump ahead by one point, 47 to 46%, joe. so airtight in all those states. i know you're skeptical of any polling that shows a five-point
lead in the state of florida because you're focused on that. you've run for office there. what are you seeing in florida, joe, and why don't you believe a poll that shows a five-point spread? >> and also, didn't we have a five-point spread in ohio for biden? >> yes. >> in this poll, yeah. >> yeah, that ain't happening. i mean, i feel like -- i feel like harry bailey at the end of "it's a wonderful life," like sobbing, help me believe again, i want to believe again. i want to believe in polls again. it's so comforting when you can look at a poll and go, oh, that's great. well, let's just talk about florida. there are a number of polls out, florida plus six, biden, florida plus three, that's a little closer to the reality. we had a "new york times" sienna poll that had florida plus four, democrat
smartest democratic operative i know has biden up four. maybe it will happen. maybe it will happen, but if you look at the early numbers, if you look at the data coming out of florida, republicans keep chewing away at that huge 430,000 vote lead that democrats had last week. they knock it down about 50,000 every day. republicans are outperforming democrats on a massive scale. they're going plus 50,000 about every day. where is that democratic energy after four years of donald trump. they lost another 40, 50,000 yesterday, so now that lead's been whittled down to 150,000 votes. that goes all -- you know, and that's going to keep going all the way through sunday for early voting. so republicans have a massive advantage there. when you look at the numbers out of miami-dade, joe biden is still under performing. so right now i see all the polls
that show a four or five-point lead for joe biden, but i see the data on the ground. i also understand that this is, forgive me steve kornacki, but this is exactly what pollsters were saying not four years ago in florida, two years ago in florida when they had ron desantis down by five points. they had rick scott, current senator, rick scott down by four or five points. it seemed like every poll had gi gillem as the next governor of florida. it was an absolute shock when he ended up losing. so again, i see these florida polls, six, plus five, plus four, they just don't ring any more truth. and that ohio poll that has joe biden up by five points. i do not know what universe -- now, if it happens, i'll be
shocked and the pollsters will will have it right, but, steve, you know, we keep talking about 2016 and the pollsters getting it wrong. they got a lot of the upper midwest states and florida wrong in 2018. >> yes, that's a critical point for people to keep in mind, i think. there were changes made to polling at the state level after 2016, and we'll see how they hold up. i do think it's worth remembering. in 2018, a particular type of state, state with a large non-college white population, a state with a large rural white population, you saw statewide in ohio, you saw it in indiana, you saw it in missouri, you saw it in tennessee, you saw it in north dakota. some demographic characteristics there that tie a lot of those states together. i know a lot of them lean republican. it is a question, i think, when you look at some of those polls out of the midwest. and like you said, the example of 2018 in florida looms large.
the modern history of florida always being a one or two-point race looms large. of course in florida we're always talking about it seems there is some kind of tradeoff in place when you look in these parties -- in these polls where the democrats maybe have gained ground, biden has with seniors if florida, just as he's losing ground with hispanics, more particularly cuban americans. florida always has a way of finding equilibrium it seems by election day. >> so it does. i will say, and i think it was josh barro last night who commented that, yes, there are tradeoffs in florida, but all tradeoffs aren't created equally. as somebody who's been on the ballot four times in florida, i can tell you if i had to choose a tradeoff where i lost more cuban americans than hillary clinton did four years ago but i picked up a lot more white seniors, i'd take the old white seniors any day of the week in
the state of florida because that's a pick up on a fairly massive scale. so i will say this, if joe biden over performs among older white seniors where hillary clinton underperformed last time, and if those independents, we've already had 1.6 million third-party, other part non-republican democratic, not affiliated floridians vote already. 1.6 million, we don't know how those are going to break. if those break for joe biden, then, yes, maybe biden gets a two, a three-point lead. those are a couple of big ifs. >> you know, the other thing you mentioned, white seniors, older voters in florida in particular, key obviously to florida, but remember, we're going to get the florida result early. we think we're going to get a lot of results in that 7:00,
8:00 hour in florida. remind you from what happened in 2016, think along the gulf coast in florida. when you saw it 7:45, 8:00 on election night in 2016 that donald trump was running 10, 15 points better in these counties than mitt romney had four years earlier. he was hitting levels you didn't think a republican was going to hit in terms of support. he was seeing turnout levels, you didn't think a republican was going to be able to create. it told you, a, that trump had a shot to win florida, certainly, but it also told you, wait a minute, who are the older white voters who live along the gulf coast who have moved to the gulf coast of florida? oh, they're from wisconsin. they're from michigan. they come down from the midwest, and they retire to the gulf coast. so if you're seeing that surge along the gulf coast of florida early for donald trump, it told us in 2016 look out for it in a couple of hours when we start getting those votes from the midwest, which is exactly what happened. work that in reverse thinking ahead to election night 2020. if it's not showing up this
time, if you're seeing the kind of shift you're describing among seniors in those gulf coast counties, the question you start asking then is, a, does that say something about where florida might be going or b, does that portend a shift in the midwest later in the night as well? >> steve, hang tight at the big board. we want to run through some of the key battleground polls just ahead. we'll be right back, you're watching "morning joe." ♪ with the ninja foodi smart xl grill just pick your protein, select your doneness, and let the grill monitor your food. it also turns into an air fryer. bring outdoor grilling flavors indoors with the grill that grills for you.
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i want to fight. you need us harry. what a goal! bockey ball, hockey ball, you name it ball. i'm gonna be ready. just say show me peacock into your xfinity voice remote or download the app today. i've heard from a lot of people over the last few days wondering with all the mail-in vote and the early voting, how exactly to process the numbers that we'll have coming in on election night. so as you look, you mentioned georgia, you mentioned florida, you mentioned north carolina, ohio, should have a pretty good
feel for those states, but what are the places where if it drags on, it could be a couple of days, and how should we look at the percentage that we get in first that that vote that's in the bank, the early vote, while we wait for other votes to be counted? >> yeah, and it's going to vary by state. we could use 2016 in florida as an example here. obviously things are a little bit different this year because of the pandemic, because of the emphasis on early voting. four years ago when donald trump carried florida, you see by 1.2 here going into election day, all of these daily updates we're getting on early voting in florida, the ballot advantage for democrats going into election day was 90,000, and what that translated into when those ballots were all counted was that hillary clinton won the early/mail-in vote in florida in 2016 by six points. so everything that's going on now this period in 2016 in florida, hillary clinton won by six points. that's what it ended up being. then the folks who went out on election day and voted, donald
trump won them by 12 points. trump won the election day vote in florida by 12. you put those two buckets of votes together, that's what it added up to. so again, what you saw in 2016 overall was a democratic advantage in the early/mail votes because of the way florida reports out its results, as joe was saying, in that first hour hour especially when you get these big reports out from these counties and you're seeing 70, 80% of their vote, this is the bucket you're seeing initially, and then this is the bucket that gets added to it. in a state like florida you might expect that the earliest numbers you get are going to be the best numbers that joe biden sees in florida, and then the question is going to be can he hold on as the votes from this bucket, which are probably going to be more trump friendly as those are added in across the state. that's the story in a state like florida. it's probably going to be different in a state if you go into a pennsylvania, for instance, pennsylvania is a bit of a mishmash here in terms of how different counties are doing it. there are some counties in pennsylvania that aren't even
going to touch their mail-in ballots until the next day, and they're only going to report out on election night the votes that were cast on election day. there are other counties, there are other places in pennsylvania like the city of philadelphia, for instance, that are going to report out probably a big chunk of their mail-in vote along with their same day vote. they're going to get more of a mix, but even a place like philadelphia it's going to take days to get through and process those hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots. so in florida the story is going to be the early vote that gets reported is favorable to biden and then it gets more trump friendly as the night goes on. in pennsylvania and a couple of other places, the story is going to be the first numbers you see and probably for a few hours on election night for all of election night are going to be the best that trump sees in pennsylvania and then they're going to improve for biden as the mail comes in and the question's going to be can biden chip away, overtake whatever advantage trump establishes. >> that's a good explanation.
you're looking at the polling averages in these critical swing states we've been looking at for months and months and months now seeing where they are. we're four days out. how close are these states, steve? >> yeah, we can take a look here. go through them again. there's three tiers here, we always talk about michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin that trump barely won but were so critical to his electoral college math in 2016. the polling there continues to be the strongest biden polling, the biggest trump vulnerabili vulnerabilities in the swing states. this is the current average for those three states, michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin. again, if biden just wins those three states overwhelmingly likely he has won the election. it's all very difficult to see trump coming up with 270 without those. if you move to florida, arizona, north carolina, states trump won in 2016, but he won them by much smaller margins, the polling there, this is the real clear average, they got biden by a point and change in florida. they got arizona in a tie. there are some -- i should note there are some of these other
poll averagers who have biden up by two points. it depends on what mix of polls you use. north carolina, they've got biden up by a fraction of a point. georgia, ohio, texas, iowa, these are states trump won by high single-digits in 2016. again, trump up a couple in texas, a tie in ohio, that five-point lead yesterday was certainly the biggest thing biden's seen out of ohio, georgia, iowa, biden leads very, very slight, but again, that's also like in iowa, iowa was a ten-point race almost in 2016, and now biden leading by one. big shift there in the polls but very, very competitive. coming up, our political round table is standing by. john heilemann, susan del percio and walter isaacson join the conversation. as we go to break, in an effort to get out the vote, singer, song writer joe sumner thought he'd bring in some extra voices for the chorus of his new track, hope. he started by asking his dad, a
man named sting, and it quickly grew into a team effort with the likes of ben folds, gabby mor o moreno, richard marks and even joe and me? ♪ ♪ i said hope, won't you come back to me ♪ ♪ hope, won't you come back to me ♪ ♪ hope, won't you come back to me ♪ ♪ and make me a believer and set my heart free ♪ ♪ hope won't you come back to me ♪ ♪ hope, won't you come back to me ♪ ♪ hope, hope
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they all endorse yes on prop 25. to end unfair, unjust, discriminatory money bail. governor gavin newsom and van jones. they're voting yes on 25. the western center on law and poverty. the dolores huerta foundation. californians for safety and justice. and the california democratic party. they all agree that the size of your wallet shouldn't determine whether or not you're in jail. so, vote yes on prop 25.
traffic and air pollution will be even worse after the pandemic. that's why we support measure rr to keep caltrain running. which is at risk of shutdown because of the crisis. to keep millions of cars off our roads, to reduce air pollution and fight climate change. and measure rr helps essential workers like me get to work and keep our communities healthy. relieve traffic. reduce pollution. rescue caltrain. [all] yes on measure rr. coming up, congressman max rose flipped a red district blue
in 1202018. >> now he's flipping them off. that's just a joke, max, it's just a joke. i do like a guy that like yells at people in parking lots. >> you know what, sometimes -- >> no, i did that. >> listen, it has to be done. >> it does. >> all right, the afghan war vet is running in a tough race for re-election, and he joins the conversation just ahead. but first, bill karins with a check on the forecast in the wake of the hurricane along the gulf coast. >> yeah, yeah hurricane zeta was nasty. we had 2 million people without power at one point, mika. now it's down to 1.2 million. you have to wonder how many people will still be out of power at election day. behind it is a developing nor'easter now bringing snow to boston, hartford, providence and just outside of new york city. it looks like in new york city itself you'll stay all rain. it's not a big storm but it's just the first snow of the season in areas of southern new england, maybe one to three
inches from providence to boston to the worcester hills. the forecast for today, for all the areas that were so hard hit by zeta, new orleans towards atlanta, areas in the mountains of north carolina, a perfect forecast today to try to get the power back on. no issues in many areas of the west, how does halloween look? chilly and dry in the northeast. it's a pretty good halloween trick or treat forecast for much of the country. a little chilly in the northern great lakes. considering it's the end of october, you'll take it. on sunday we do get a little bit of rain through the northeast, especially in the afternoon, cold and windy in the great lakes. much of the west is going to warm up, and this brings us to the all important election day forecast. some years we've had huge storms with ice and snow and even severe thunderstorms. this election day as quiet as it gets, a beautiful forecast throughout much of the country. i don't see any problems with the weather in any of our swing states. so you know, at least we have that in 2020, a really nice election day forecast. no excuse to not get out there and vote. new york city, plenty of
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the unfair money bail system. he, accused of rape. while he, accused of stealing $5. the stanford rapist could afford bail; got out the same day. the senior citizen could not; forced to wait in jail nearly a year. voting yes on prop 25 ends this failed system, replacing it with one based on public safety. because the size of your wallet shouldn't determine whether or not you're in jail.
vote yes on prop 25 to end money bail. i say it all the time, because we've liked ronald reagan, we've liked a lot of people. generally speaking they don't do the job, right? we've had good ones like ronald reagan, he's the one i think about. fi first of all, he'd never get a crowd like this. he'd have 2 or 300 people. you ought to see yesterday, we had 35, 40,000 people. >> 40 years ago the nation watched ronald reagan win the presidency on an election night that was over nearly before it started. 20 years later another election night took over a month to decide. nbc news senior correspondent tom brokaw witness to both looks back at those historic races as the country braces for what election night will bring four days from now.
>> in the closing days of the 1980 presidential campaign, ronald reagan, governor of california, seemed to be closing fast on the incumbent, jimmy carter, who was plagued by high inflation and also those americans being held hostage in iran. >> next tuesday all of you will go to the polls, you'll stand there in the polling place and make a decision. i think when you make that decision it might be well if you would ask yourself are you better off than you were four years ago? >> after a strong debate against president carter in the closing days, reagan caught fire. >> decision '80, nbc news reports the results of our national election. >> when we came on the air election night, polls were closing, and we knew from exit interviews with voters that reagan would have a very good night. >> we have been polling around the country in the key states,
nbc news and "the associated press" is what we're learning in the key states that makes us believe that ronald reagan will win a very substantial victory tonight. >> well, the pattern that we have on the map already i think does show some ominous signs for jimmy carter. >> just how good quickly became clear as the polls closed and were counted. in those days, republicans were in blue, and the country quickly became a reagan blue tidal wave. >> the map is turning blue for reagan. nbc news now makes its projection for the presidency. reagan is our projected winner, ronald wilson reagan. >> it was an historic victory. the former actor and california governor was declared the winner by 8:15 p.m. eastern time. he had enough electoral votes before california and the west were counted. >> beginning to look like a suburban swimming pool over there. >> 20 years later, another historic election, but this time a new generation.
al gore for the democrats and george bush for the republicans. the former governor of texas, son of a president. and at the end, it all came down to this. >> they need florida. florida, florida, florida. let me show you one more time. this is it right here. florida, florida, florida. >> at first it seemed that gore would win. >> an important win for vice president al gore, nbc news projects that he wins the 25 electoral votes in the state of florida. >> then florida became too close to call. >> what the networks give us, the networks taketh away. the nbc news is taking florida out of vice president gore's column. and then bush. >> george bush is the president-elect of the united states. he has won the state of florida according to our projections. >> and gore was ready to concede, but wait. the vote kept changing. >> so we take florida away from george w. bush.
that means he is short of the 270 electoral votes that he needs to win. >> gore was headed to a concession speech, but he turned around. >> as al gore has pulled back his concession speech, we're on hold at the moment until we get all the votes in. >> both sides brought in their heavy weights. for gore, the famed lawyer david boyse, for bush, family prend a friend and a fighting legend james baker, who organized the militia of warriors and political infighters for a political war. eventually this case went to the u.s. supreme court, and on another chaotic evening, we got the court ruling. >> it is now conclusive that the 25 electors of florida move into george bush's column and cannot be contested. >> george bush was the new president, the second in his family. >> and i will give it my all. thank you very much, and god bless america. >> what will happen on this
election night is not easy to say at this point, but it's already clear that it's not going to be easy or tidy. president trump, after all, has made it clear that he's not going to walk away very easily, and there are all those absentee ballots to be counted, which will take a long time. so we have another extended presidential campaign and election night to look forward to. >> wow. nbc's tom brokaw there and what a tale of two elections. >> wow. >> joe, what were those elections like for you? two different positions. >> unbelievable. i was still in high school and was -- i know this will shock people, but a political nerd, and i would always get my maps out. i would watch them come in. i would color in the states as they came, try to project what was going to happen. my parents said everybody looked at me in a very strange way for good reason, for good reason.
but i remember my mom dragging me to cordova mall for some benefit in 1980, and it was early in the evening so i thought i'd be back in time to see the results. as we were driving home, it was about 6:30 central time, driving home, turned on the radio, and they projected about 14 or 15 states for reagan, and i was like, get home. what's going on? so the amazing thing is -- and this is why you never know how these things are going to go -- on the friday before election day, a lot of people said the race was too close to call. i remember reading a "time" article talking about it being up for grabs, and that weekend people broke hard for ronald reagan. of course, 20 years later, willie, i don't even want to talk about that race. that still makes me twitch looking at it. i was very much involved for 38 days all across the state of
florida in that race, and i remember by the time pete williams came out reading the supreme court decision, i don't remember feeling any joy or any pain or anything. i immediately fell asleep even before bush -- even before bush got up to deliver that concession speech because everybody, democrats and republicans, victory speech, because everybody had been awake for 38 days. man, it was a nightmare. >> fatigue and relief that it was over, i think, was the overwhelming feeling and outrage from the other side. i mean, let's hope we don't run into that this time around. we don't know what's ahead of us. but we do know as tom said president trump and his campaign is ready to fight legally if it's close enough to do that. you look back at that 1980 race, and you look at that map, and it's just staggering to think where we are as a country in terms of red states and blue states that the challenger ronald reagan could win 44
states and 489 electoral votes, and by the way, did better the next time in 1984. we're certainly in a different place. let's bring in msnbc national affairs analyst, co-host of show time's "the circus" and executive editor of the recount, john heilemann, and republican strategist, susan del percio and professor of hits story at tula university and best selling author and historian walter isaacson. john, let's start with you. we're just four days away. we've been talking about the polling in the battleground states all morning long. where are we right now? >> almost there is the answer, willie, hopefully. almost there. that much closer to election day, and i'm kind of now to the point where i'm a little bit with joe from yesterday, i think, you know, where i think we've done so much analysis at this point of all these numbers, and the numbers that we've --
you know, with so many polls and so much talk over these past weeks and months and the data that we have has painted a fairly consistent picture, which is to say, you know, joe biden's the clear favorite going into election day, and nothing that's happened in the last few weeks, the early vote that's come in, nothing's fundamentally changed that. you can look around in the core battleground states and you can find reasons to worry if you're a democrat. you can find a lot more reasons to worry if you're a republican than a democrat. you'd much rather be in joe biden's position sitting here on the friday before election day than in donald trump's. joe biden has a lot of different ways to get to 270 electoral votes. donald trump has really very, very few, and yet all of that is set against the fact that the one thing that everyone knows that i know in politics on both sides that they acknowledge, which is that on election day donald trump is going to have a very, very large republican turnout on election day, and how big that turns out to be is unknown and unknowable.
and because we just -- but the fact that we know it's going to be likely massive on trump's side and we are not all the way there yet with the early vote, we don't know exactly what the totals are going to be. there's still three and a half, four days to play here, right? it leaves hanging out that one big contingency and whether it's a 25% contingency, a 15% contingency, a 35% contingency. there's a possibility that an overwhelming red tide on election day and donald trump finds a bunch of those non-college whites who did not vote in 2016 and turns them out in vast numbers on tuesday, and it turns out he finds a way to get to a very, very narrow 270, 272, 273 electoral vote victory. is that possible? is sti it still is. you'd much rather be joe biden today than donald trump if you're just playing this out in terms of the probabilities. >> that you would, but walter we've had so many examples, many
of them recent where you just don't know what's going to happen regardless of the polling. yes, we can talk about 2016. it's amazing how many people now four years later are claiming, oh, we knew all along that donald trump had a shot of winning when, in fact, the overwhelming majority of people would mock and ridicule you if you suggested trump had a shot at 270. but we don't have to go back to 2016. we can look at 2018. ron desantis was five points behind andrew gillum throughout most of the campaign. the polls at the end were showing that both desantis and rick scott were going to lose their governor and senate races, and neither of those happened. i remember tom brokaw in 2008 in new hampshire when everybody was saying that hillary clinton's campaign was over, she had lost in iowa, and she was going to lose in new hampshire, the polls had her 10, 11, 12, points down. i remember brokaw telling us
then, you got to wait until you count the votes, and sure enough hillary clinton beat barack obama and made everybody in the media look foolish. that's why, yes, you'd rather be in joe biden's position than donald trump's right now if you look at all the polls, but we still have no idea what's going to happen on election day. >> you know, you've been very good at warning people, don't believe the polls, don't get complacent one way or the other, but you know, in four years ago i was driving across pennsylvania and then new york with my wife, and it was clear with the trump, trump, trump signs that the polls were under counting a certain passion. now you've got passion on both sides. i hate to say it, but as a very young reporter for "time" magazine was with tom brokaw and mike barnicle and others during the ronald reagan campaign of 1980, and you could see that there was a warmth to ronald reagan that people felt warm to
him. i think you don't have that with trump right now. reagan tried to be a uniter, whether or not his policies were you can argue it, but he was an optimistic friendly, you know, just exuded hope for america, and usually it's a more optimistic candidate that wins, and you could tell that ronald reagan back then in the 1980 campaign it was going to go, and just to add, i was with don dickerson at george bush's ranch the day the supreme court stopped the counting because we were at "time" magazine preparing two different man of the year covers, and you know, it's amazing how that history has played out. i hope, i hope we don't have quite a historic night again this year. i'd like to have a calm election night. >> let us pray, let us pray. >> for so many reasons, susan del percio, what are you looking at? i know one of your focus is
looking at republicans and independents who are making their way toward biden on election day dpl ye. >> yeah, and at the lincoln project, we are seeing that is happening. it looks like it could be more than the 3 or 4% that we were looking towards. it could be as high as 5 or 7%, and speaking of independents and republicans for biden, i'd just like to highlight, ed wee na sands, winston churchill's granddaughter penned an op-ed for "usa today" announcing her support for joe biden, and my words not hers but she basically said winston churchill, donald trump is no winston churchill, and it's a powerful piece i encourage people to look atment i am looking, i am maybe a little more optimistic. i understand the question about the polls, but i think that's so people don't think you can play it safe. i look not just at 2018 but look at what happened in 2019 in pennsylvania. the numbers were staggering. they turned over counties, delaware county in pennsylvania
that hadn't seen a democrat in 50 years, so there is something to be said for that. plus, when you look at the re-election of the president as we mentioned earlier and anyone else seeking re-election, they always went to expand their base. donald trump is narrowing it. he's creating hate. he's creating fear, and i think walter's right, you want to see optimism, and people want to see at least a plan for a recovery, and donald trump is telling us we don't even have to worry about one. >> yeah, you know, john heilemann, we talked earlier this morning about what steve kornacki, willie, mika and myself, what we were going to be looking at early in the evening. by 7:15, 7:30, we're going to have a good portion of the 7, 8 million early votes that were cast in the state of florida for everybody to look at at the supervisor of election websites across the state, even before
all of florida's polls close at 8:00 p.m. eastern. what are you going to be looking at? what are you going to be looking for early in the evening once those 8 million, 9 million votes start flooding in to the supervisor and the results flooding onto the supervisor of election's websites? >> you know, i think, joe, i'm going to be like you. it's possibly i'm going to be actually in florida on election night, and if that turns out to be the kacase, that gives you a sense of my sense of where it's important to be focused. that i for the first time this a long time may not be with one of the candidates on election night but instead i'm going to position myself down in florida because i think it's going to be that important that state, and i think if that turns out to be true for me, i'm going to be focused in a very detailed, very laser-like way on some of the key counties in florida on that early vote, on the vote as it starts to come in in florida and on some of those key counties
throughout the state and key precincts, either the ones that have traditionally been key looking at those counties on the i-4 corridor, those counties that have been big swing counties in florida and counties where donald trump blew the doors out in 2016, the rural counties, the counties up in the panhandle. you remember those counties where the reason why we looked up at election night on 2016 and roel realized that hillary clinton was in trouble in florida was that trump was bringing in numbers that were unprecedented on that election day, and i think there are large questions about that. you've talked about florida a lot in the last week. we all have, right? but these focus not just on the key counties but also on the key demographics. how does trump do with hispanics in florida, with senior ts iscis in florida, and blue collar white women. you're going to be able to know on the basis of both geographic and demographic focus what's going on in the state of florida is not only going to tell us a
lot about whether we're going to know a winner in that state or whether it's going to be too close to call in that state, but also it's going to tell us a lot about what's going on in similar counties with similar demographics in the other battleground states. i'm going to be like tim russert on tuesday. florida, florida, florida. >> yeah, and inside of florida, florida, florida, counties like pasco county to see if donald trump holds his margins. dave wasserman obsessed with sumpter county wants to know does donald trump hold the overwhelming 39% margin, or is he five, six, seven, eight points below that? that can tell a lot. you can tell a lot from these quick snapshots. we want everybody to stay with us, but i want to bring in now a guest, mika. who's up for re-election. >> yeah, because from florida, florida, florida, to new york, new york, new york, democratic congressman max rose of new york. he's in a tough race for re-election in staten island, which he flipped blue in 2016,
even while donald trump had won it handily. max, great to have you back on the show. >> max, what are the issues -- >> thanks for having me -- >> what are the issues that your constituents are talking to you about or yelling at you about? >> yeah, they really seem to yell at you a lot, max. >> we're just having fun. look, on a very fun level, what my campaign is about, and i think what elections are about across the country is who is willing to stand up to both parties, who is capable of being independent, putting the country first and who can get stuff done, who can deliver results. in my two years in congress we've gotten everything done from the victims compensation fund to over $100 million for the opioid epidemic, put sanctions on chinese pharmaceutical companies that are producing fentanyl that's killing kids in my district and certainly during covid, standing up testing facilities, standing up covid-only facilities, bringing over $100 million back
for small businesses. but the second thing that i hear over and over again is you've got to get something more done on covid relief. why is there this intense partisanship? why can't the democrats take this $1.9 trillion deal and then put the focus on the senate republicans. put the ball in their court and see whether or not they are going to put the country first or continue with these ridiculous skinny bills. let's not forget, we're focusing so much on politics right now. people are suffering, and they need action right now. they cannot afford to wait for three, four months. >> walter isaacson is with us and has a question for you congressman. walter? >> you just said that your constituents keep asking you why is there this deep partisanship. that's part of the joe biden campaign is saying, okay, i'm going to be a unifier. we've got to have a break from this poison and this partisanship. do you think that's a resent in message or do you think people are saying we don't like
partisanship but they'll go back into their respective partisan corners? >> well, it's certainly a resonant message but more importantly than the message is the fact that we need action right now. and i'm sorry, i'm not just going to wait for unified government in this country for there to be bold action. that's never what this country has been about. we have been capable, and you've written about this, thinking big, bold acting big, acting bold while there was still a divided government. that's what they want to see. there are democrats right now saying let's not do covid relief because we don't want to give this president a win. there are republicans right now who are saying let's not do anything but a skinny bill because it's just those blue states that are having problems and we're not going to win there anyway. that's the problem. you can have partisan combat during the time of election, but then let's take a deep breath and let's act. we have to learn how to put the country first. we have to learn how to put
people first who can't afford a lobbyist, who can't afford a corporate pac. and that's what we're missing right now. but we can get it back. i've got hope. when i was activated in the national guard during covid, i saw the same thing that i saw in afghanistan which was people in uniform and otherwise saying, we can't afford to not get something done. failure is not an option. and i don't know for god's sake, i do not understand why some elected officials think that failure is okay. think that waiting is okay. and that's why the american people are so frustrated. >> congressman, it's willie. good to see you this morning. a few days before your election here. i'm curious about how your district is feeling about president trump. it's such an interesting district of staten island and southern brooklyn because it went for donald trump by double digits in 2016, but before that, elected barack obama twice. voted for him twice. so how are the people in your district, how are they feeling now four years on with donald
trump as president, particularly about the last eight or nine months and how he's handled coronavirus, which, as you know, has really hit particularly southern brooklyn hard? >> well, to make it even more interesting, it was one of the few districts in the country if not the only district to vote for john mccain in '08, then barack obama in '12, then donald trump in 2016. and the clear narrative there is that no one owns their vote. it's not trump country. it's not rose country. remember all these statisticians said i didn't have a chance of winning in 2018, and then i won by seven points. donald trump certainly remains popular. we'll see what the election results actually are. but the frustration lives on, and it's a frustration that government is not working. there's a frustration that -- about this partisan combat. but certainly what you don't see in my district, and i think across the country is you don't see people saying, get
government out of our back pocket. you dont see people saying in the face of covid, we don't want government to act. they want government to work and they deeply respect folks who put their lives on the line who dedicate themselves to service. they don't think they're the enemy, but they are sick and tired of people basing their decisions off of polls, off of party leaders, or off of donors. they want to see them do the right thing. and if then -- if they feel as if you are doing what you believe is best in your heart, based off your morals, then they can get behind you, irrespective of whether they agree with every single decision that you make. that's what this is all about. and that's what you have to get back to. >> yeah, and you've got to yell at them sometimes. you never know. >> sometimes. >> if you are in a supermarket -- outside a supermarket, you just say, you know what -- >> we were just saying hello. we're just saying hello. >> that's what they do. staten island. >> max rose, thank you so much.
be safe out there. greatly appreciate it. walter, one of the great structural defects in american democracy over the past 20 years has been actually the intensification of gerrymandering. when you sat there and listened to max rose speak, that's a guy that had to worry about, with four days left, trump voters not offending them. he had to worry about not defending his democratic base, and i actually think and i'm sure you think that's a good thing because what does that mean? you have to be able to go back to your voters and say, you know what? i'll work with both sides. i don't give a damn whether they are democrats or republicans. i'll work for the people of staten island. we just don't have that many competitive seats in the house anymore. >> you're exactly right. if you look at the five or ten things that have caused this poison and this partisanship, gerrymandering is up there. in new orleans, when i was growing up, the whole area was a
particular district. it was black, it was white, it was suburban. and a person like hale bogg would come along and be able to get a consensus of all sides and was a great leader. after that, it gets gerrymandered and you have david duke and the suburban counties, a guy -- the urban part of the city had somebody who ends up going to jail, and you have a divisiveness. mike barnicle has said over and over again on this show that this election, we have to worry about when we say this is not who we are as a country, that maybe this is who we are as a country. and that's on the ballot now. who are we as a country. and the notion that we're a country that can work together is something we have to keep pushing for. and as you point out, joe, we need, especially with the new census coming on, we need districts that sort of say, you've got to find ways to appeal to different types of people, just like max rose has
to do in brooklyn and staten island. that would be the single best thing that could happen to this country. >> susan del persio, talk about suburban women, and in the last four days, are any minds going to be changed? >> i don't see any minds really being changed. we're going to be up to 80 million people casting their votes before election day. that's a tremendous number. so i think right now, potentially, people who are going to the polls are maybe looking for a fault here or there with the opponent that kind of shores up their vote that they want to make. but suburban women have turned their back on donald trump. again, i know we're supposed to be weary of the polls but when you look at what has happened, the way donald trump speaks to them. you showed a piece earlier when donald trump was, we're going to get your husbands back to work. well, i'm out of work, too is what women are saying and you're not focusing on me. donald trump has made it a win
or a lose proposition. and to walter's point, again, it's about working together. and that's what suburban women have to do on a regular basis to manage their households, their work and everything else. so that's what they are looking for. and i think donald trump will be hurting as a result. >> john heilemann, we're going into the final weekend, the final four days. tell our viewers what matters most. what are you looking at? >> you know, i really want to see who is playing offense and who is playing defense over these 72 hours, joe. i'm watching where the candidates are going. and we're going to see a lot. we're going to learn a lot and see who is on offense. who is trying to take territory and who is trying to defend their territory in the last 72 hours. pay attention to the candidates' movements more than anything else. that will tell you what they think is going on in the race. >> david wasserman, the polling and data and elections guru reported that texas just
surpassed as of this morning its total votes cast in 2016. >> oh, my. >> there's one more day of early voting and, of course, election day itself. they've already passed their total number of votes from 2016. >> that's amazing. >> that does it for us this morning. stephanie ruhle picks up the coverage right now. we'll see you monday. >> have a great weekend. hi there. i'm stephanie ruhle. it's friday, october 30th. let's get smarter. four days. that is all that stands between now and election day. nearly 80 million americans have already cast their vote, and in this final stretch, the midwestern states that tipped the scale for donald trump back in 2016 are coming into sharp focus. that is where both candidates are headed today. joe biden will be in iowa, wisconsin and minnesota, while president trump will make a swing through michigan, wisconsin and minnesota. and for this final weekend, the president will zero in on the