tv All In With Chris Hayes MSNBC November 5, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm PST
we are starting the 8:00 hour here in the east of what has become day three of election day. and we want to go to steve kornacki at the board. one of the major dramas tonight has been the state of pennsylvania. people throughout the day thought there might be some movement, there might be reason to believe we would have a break in pennsylvania. of course, everyone watching knows if joe biden is awarded pennsylvania, it's 270, it's ball game. so, steve kornacki, remind us first off how much outstanding vote there still is in pennsylvania. >> right, brian, so we, again, there was just an update here a second ago, donald trump's lead statewide in pennsylvania is 63,725. a very small update a minute ago from the county where penn state university is. it brought that down a little bit. now, what is left? we have some information here from the state of pennsylvania on what they say is outstanding.
they say there are roughly 250,000 outstanding votes in the state of pennsylvania. now, where are those votes? about 72 -- say about 70,000 here are from philadelphia, itself. then if you go immediately outside philadelphia, delaware county here, bucks county here, between those two, you got about half of what you got in philly, got about 35,000 right there. so between philadelphia and its suburbs, you got just over 100,000 votes remaining there. you also have, here's, you know, one of the frustrating aspects of this, allegheny county where pittsburgh is, they're sitting on 35,000 votes. they said they took an administrative work day today and they will do those ballots tomorrow. so there are 35,000 ballots there in allegheny county. we're not going to get anything on those tonight. then you've got sort of a scattering, i think one of the bigger places also on the map,
lehigh, lehigh county, where allentown is, there's 25,000. you've got a bunch of sort of counties like that around the state. now, i put all of this out there because we have been watching all of these counties as they've come in. and we have talked about this tonight and it has become very clear, and we've got a big enough sort of data set here from the counties that have reported to say, clearly, biden is winning this mail vote overwhelmingly in pennsylvania. he's winning it in democratic areas. he's winning it in republican areas. if you take all of the mail ballots that have been counted so far in pennsylvania, whether you're talking about philadelphia, the bluest city in pennsylvania, whether you're talking about carbon county, where trump is winning overwhelmingly in the overall vote, if you take it all together, the mail vote in pennsylvania right now is going 76% for joe biden. that is his statewide number in the mail-in vote.
so, you've got 250,000 votes remaining in pennsylvania. you have a clear trend right here where joe biden is racking up votes in the mail-in. if, if biden were to get 76% of the remaining votes, the remaining mail-in vote s the state tells us they have of 250,000, biden would get about 190,000 of those, trump would get about 60,000 of those. the difference between those would be 130,000 votes. 130,000 votes for biden, right, minus the 63,000 that trump currently leads by, that would give biden a lead statewide of 67,000 votes, roughly. now, again, there are -- i don't know why i said -- there are a lot of ifs here, as i said. we're extrapolatinging froe ini
statewide trend. we're extrapolating from the statewide trend. there could still be surprises in some of these votes. this is information the state is giving us in terms of where they say the outstanding votes are. we have seen in pennsylvania and elsewhere, sometimes, oh, wait, there's an adjustment, the numbers change. there's a lot of ifs here but the trend is also extremely clear in pennsylvania, we've been showing you that tonight. we've been showing you deeply, deeply red counties where joe biden is still winning big in the mail-in vote. that trend of biden winning the mail vote by 76% is pretty well established right now. so it gives you a sense, based on what the state is telling us is outstanding, and based on that trend, of what the potential is here, at least, the potential is, for joe biden with these remaining votes. >> steve, just one word about the kind of work that's going on as you keep pointing out, this is the counting that involves slicing open envelopes and
flattening out ballots that may have been folded that way for weeks then scanning them, going through, determining the votes. if there is some disagreement over whether, which candidate is circled, representatives of both parties go over that ballot. this is the painstaking work. we should also point out the thankless work of everyone we've seen counting these ballots who for the most part skew public-minded and earnest and decent and hardworking. >> absolutely. and also to give you a measure of just the difficulty of the work they face, again, we say there's 70,000 or so ballots to come here from philadelphia. about 12,000 an hour. about 13,000 -- >> yeah. >> working at just -- the scene you have right there -- >> yep. >> -- everybody doing that work around the clock, what does that result in? you know, about 12,000 votes -- ballots an hour get processed and reported out. that's why, i mean, again, we
keep giving you these updates from philadelphia. it's, here's 8,000 more votes for biden, here's 1,000 more for trump. that's about what they can do each hour. so, there's still, as we say, 70 grand, 70,000 to come from philadelphia. 12,000 an hour. it may take a while to get those out. it doesn't seem like there's going to be one big drop of them. it seems like there's going it be a bunch of incremental, here's the 12,000 we did this hour, here's the new numbers. >> yep. standing on a concrete floor all the while. steve kornacki, thanks, wave if you have anything new. rachel, over to you. >> absolutely. i think it's actually great to have that underscored at the end there, we don't have a schedule by which we will get votes out of pennsylvania. we're getting them as we get them, but to give you what that back of the envelope math is there that steve just laid out, there's about a quarter million ballots outstanding in the state right now. president trump has just under 64,000 votes as his lead. if we extrapolate from what the ballots look like, thus far, and the way they've been trending thus far, where the ballots are
coming from, the back of the envelope math shows potentially at the end of the day a 60,000-70,000-vote lead at the end of the day in pennsylvania for former vice president joe biden. now -- >> can you just make a point, please, for the -- i think when people hear a deeply red county and biden wins the -- >> mail-in vote. >> -- mail-in ballot, for people -- there are probably not too many of those with us tonight, for those who say there must be something wrong with that, i mean, it would be helpful to walk back through that again, how a county can be 79% for trump and then the ballot be mostly for biden. >> it's just that the ballot that got mailed in was for biden. motivated to vote for biden. >> smaller numbers of people -- the point people should understand is small numbers of democrats even live in, like, the reddest part of alabama. >> of course. >> small numbers of republicans don't like trump. so for those who think, oh, this is a sign, here's msnbc saying, a-ha, we caught you because, you know, this deeply red county was
returning mail-in ballots and they're overwhelmingly for biden, it's because there might be a republican or two or few or small or a thousand in a really, really conservative community who just prefer biden. you have small numbers of democrats who live everywhere. >> yeah. >> keep in mind, that's not saying there's something weird. >> we can quantify that no, as steve was saying, it's basically 3-1. >> exactly. >> in pennsylvania, this is not true for every state, in pennsylvania, hard-fought pennsylvania which everybody knew from the very beginning was going to be right at the center of fight here -- >> yes. >> -- 3-1 is the proportion of mail-in ballots that are coming in for biden and matches what we knew from public polling. >> exactly. >> about the intentions of voters. >> that's right. >> voting by different means. >> yeah. >> so it is in keeping, it's just hard to -- it should be noted we had the lieutenant governor of pennsylvania on earlier in this hour, earlier in our coverage, who said, listen, one of the things i'm proud of in pennsylvania right now, we taught ourselves mail-in balloting. this is not colorado, not a state that's been mail-in balloting forever. this is their first real experience with it. >> they had a law in place who
said you can't start until the election is over. >> can't stop counting. >> they handicapped themselves and that was the republican legislature, so if donald trump is mad about what's happening in pennsylvania right now, he ought to talk to the republican state legislators who mandated that you can't even start counting early. >> yeah. >> his own new home state of florida, you can start counting as soon as they come in. >> there's somebody who is waiting to talk to us who has a lot to say about these and other matters because he's right in the thick of it. joining us now is the attorney general of the great state of pennsylvania, josh shapiro, mr. attorney general, thank you so much for being with us tonight. it's nice to see you. >> great to see you, rachel. thank you. >> i know you are not here to talk about the likely outcomes in the state and the partisan cast of potential votes that we are expecting, but i do want to ask you about the legal landscape, as we have talked about in recent days, i think by my count there's, like, five different avenues of litigation that the trump campaign is now pursuing in your state. can you catch us up to speed as to whether any of those legal
fights is likely to affect either the pace of the count or when we're likely to see results? >> yeah, rachel, none of the litigation, none of the noise that's been coming, has stopped the count. the count has gone forward. it may be a little bit slower than america would like, but as joy said, just a moment ago, part of that is because they weren't afforded the opportunity to begin this work prior to election day. that's obviously something that lawmakers need to go back and address. but nevertheless, you know, the law is being followed and clerks from our communities are doing incredible work. i want to give them a shout-out. we really appreciate them. so in terms of the legal landscape, let me maybe begin, rachel, with what the president described as a big win. i think those were his words just a few moments ago. that big win, let me break that down for you, the president's legal team asked for two things. number one, they wanted to move
their observers, and there were more than a dozen, i believe the number is 15, observers who had been in the room the whole time, they wanted to move them from ten feet to six feet. in order to observe. in addition to that, they wanted the count to be completely stopped. well, they lost in one court. they appealed to another. and this is what they want. they were allowed to now move their observers from ten feet to six feet and that count continued. i must say, in the midst of a pandemic where cases are rising, the idea that the president of the united states thinks it's a big win to be four feet closer and breathing down someone's neck as they open up an envelope and cast, or pardon me, count, these legal votes, is pretty silly but that's the legal landscape right now. that is what they are touting as a big win. the most important thing for people to know, rachel, is the count's continuing.
these are legal votes. cast by eligible voters. and soon, as kornacki sort of demonstrated before, you see it's going 12,000, 13,000 or so an hour, soon we will know the results but the bottom line is we're following the law, it's a legal process, and the will of the people will be respected here in pennsylvania. >> let me ask you about another challenge. potential legal challenge that is more substantive than that four-foot difference that you just described, which is the republican effort, now the trump campaign effort, to prohibit pennsylvania from counting ballots that were legally cast on time and put in the mail before election day but arrived after election day. and i know that this is an ongoing fight. we talked about how the united states supreme court may or may not be involved there and how various justices may end up seeing that. i don't know how that's going to go. i'm sure you don't, either. at this point. because it's still in process. but give our viewers some sense of the scale of the number of
ballots that might affect. obviously, things are close in pennsylvania. it's going to be close at the end of the day. regardless of who ends up getting called as winning the state. if that is potentially the strongest legal challenge that the republicans and trump campaign are going to bring, again, for ballots that were cast on time, postmarked before election day, but arrived thereafter, ballpark, and be -- be -- you can be as general as you want here, but how many ballots are we talking about there, roughly? >> yeah, sure. again, the department of state manages that aspect of the election, but my understanding is we're talking about a few thousand ballot. we're not talking about tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands. and, again, this is a great time for us to just take a deep breath and look at this. you know, the trump campaign, i believe, said they were going to go to the supreme court to stop the counting. well, that's actually not what's happening. what's happened is they have
asked the united states supreme court if they could intervene in a case that the justices haven't even indicated that the they wou would take up. over a matter of state law that has been settled by our state supreme court that says, as you correctly pointed out, rachel, ballots that were cast by eligible voting and mailed prior to the close of the polls but received within three days after the election, so up till tomorrow at 5:00 p.m., could be counted. and what they're seeking to do is intervene to say that those ballots shouldn't be counted. i will tell you that briefs are due in that case not for another two tweweeks. this is not an emergency issue. not something the supreme court has indicated they would even take up. that's what's really happening. that's the state of the legal play when it comes to those ballots. >> josh shapiro, the attorney general of the great state of pennsylvania, thank you, sir. i know it's a busy time. thank crew fyou more faking tim
>> good to be with you. >> again, to underscore what the attorney general just said, what is widely viewed, i'm not a lawyer, i may be wrong, but i think my understanding, what is widely viewed as the only substantive challenge that the trump campaign has brought in pennsylvania is this issue about whether or not ballots postmarked before election day, but received thereafter, will be counted and whether that will go to the supreme court. worst-case scenario for the biden campaign and the democrats, that would be a few thousand ballots, again, they are mail-in ballots. as steve just explained just moments ago, mail-in ballots in pennsylvania right now are coming in 3-1 for joe biden. if the back of the envelope math that we're doing tonight suggesting at the end of the day it's going to be a 60,000-70,000 joe biden lead in pennsylvania, once all the ballots we know of are counted, that will be moot. and as the attorney general just said there, briefs aren't even due in that case for two weeks. all right. nicolle wallace, over to you. >> thank you, rachel. i get to bring into our conversation former obama
campaign manager, our friend, david plouffe. so, david plouffe, i talked about this on tv and anyone who covers the biden campaign knows that this is a pretty disciplined campaign. they are not -- there's no hubris there, so they are in character, very cautiously optimistic, you can't get them to say they have anything in the bag, but i'm going to try to get you to say it. does the biden camp have pennsylvania in the bag? >> listen, nicolle, if you look at the trendline, and it's not just philadelphia, i mean, biden now has taken a lead in erie county, leads in all the suburban counties outside of philadelphia are much stronger than hillary clinton had in '16. and he's obviously going to dominate in the mail vote. that's a trend we've seen all over the country. so i think where we know where that's heading. i think where nevada is heading if you listen to john ralston, he's extremely confident. i never argue with john ralston. my suspicion is the arizona lead holds up. you know, georgia's going to be close but you'd rather be biden than not. one thing, we're talking about
what trump is up to in lawsuits. this is not going to be a close election. okay? the battleground states that delivered trump the presidency in '16 are going to be much closer than they are this time. george bush's victory that you helped produce in '04, much closer than the electoral college in all likelihood. this is not 2000, not 1976. it's 1960. so i think we should be careful about ascribing too much time and attention to what donald trump and his campaign are saying. this is not somebody who, you know, the presidency is coming down to one state and it's a few hundred votes. he's going to lose this i think at the end of the day pretty comfortab comfortably. i thing thatk that's where thin stand. >> i think that's a great reality check. and i was admonished today to stop talking about leads. that no one is ahead of anyone else. it's just the order in which things are being counted. so the vote is the vote. and in pennsylvania, donald trump isn't ahead of joe biden. they simply haven't counted all of the absentee vote. so you haven't seen the tightening that everybody expects.
i have another question for you about the polls. i have reached tout a l eed out the same pollsters you know. they see numbers the way, you know, polysci english nerds see words and speeches. what is it about the numbers, what do the numbers tell you in the exit poll data about the way voters process the coronavirus pandemic? it would appear that trump had some success in creating this false choice between protecting our health and re-opening the economy. and i hear joe biden constantly work and it's unclear whether it's been successful yet, but i imagine this will be a focus and a transition to knit those things together. what do you think that task looks like? how important do you think that is to biden? >> yeah, well, i think we should be careful about, you know, drawing too many conclusions from the exit polls because, you know, i'm not sure how accurate they were. but here's just my sense like yours of having worked in politics. i think clearly the way trump
mishandled the coronavirus hurt him in the suburbs. i think joe biden helped himself by the way he talked about it. by the way, the cdc's in atlanta, i'm sure joe biden overperformed there even more because people are concerned about the way that trump has waved the white flag. i think trump's messaging about, you know what, it seemed crazy at the end but joe biden's going to -- we won't have christmas, we won't have thanksgiving, no one will ever go back to school, no one will ever work again, he's going to shut down america, even though joe biden said i'm not going to shut down the economy, i'm going to shut down the virus. that might have worked with some people. >> right. >> who were at the end of their rope here. i'm eager, one of the nice things about elections is really for the next year or two we're going to learn about what happened this week and get new revelations every month or so. i think that's probably a smart analysis. i think that's job number one, joe biden has to continue to give people confidence that he's going to lead us out of this. in a responsible way. in a way that -- >> yeah. >> -- will allow our businesses to continue to grow. people get back to work. but in a responsible way. and i think at the end of the day that's one thing that maybe wasn't as clear as possible, which is even though joe biden
said it, i don't think it necessarily got through donald trump's bluster, that we are simply not going to heal ourselves economically, kids went go back to school until we get on the other side of the virus. and, again, i think in some suburban areas for sure, that helped joe biden, i'm sure it helped with some urban turnout. you know, some of the reason trump may have been able to hold on to those '16 margins, you know, in rural and xurban areas is that rural areas, that message might have been resonant. >> i think you're right, we'll continue to unpack it. you make a great point. for the first time we'll have an american president who's trying to get rid of the virus and kill the virus. so that will be good for everybody. da david plouffe, it's always fun to talk about all of these things and more with you. brian? >> nicolle, before i lose you, we are reminded and probably don't say enough that people are voting by mail because of an uncontrolled pandemic. we've learned today we said -- >> that's right. >> -- we set yet another one-day record. 109,000 new cases. we actually have it higher than
that at 111,000. and, nicolle, this "associated press" piece of work that is circulating, they took the 376 counties that were most loyal to trump in 93 of them have the highest rate of virus. they all went to donald trump. for folks on the political left who can't process that, you want to take a swing at it? >> well, look, i revealed this during my two hours on the air today that whenever it was that we ran into each other in the hallway, 3:00, 4:00 in the morning on election night, i worried out loud to you that, perhaps, we weren't covering the -- some of the pain and suffering of the pandemic that even if in the head part of a human they understand that the shutdowns and all the measures were the right thing to do, in
their gut, they were grieving for their old lives. and it was all a lie. i mean, what donald trump was feeding them was a lie, but cynical politicians with no shame who are willing to lie and admit to bob woodward that that's what it was was a lie, do end up reaching some people who are in pain and who are suffering and i think david plouffe's absolutely right, we're going to have to peel this onion and really try to understand just all of the injury that all of the suffering and all of this illness and economic insecurity has caused our friends and neighbors and i think joe biden, look, we're not saying that joe biden's going to unite the country, joe biden ran on a message of wanting to unite the country. and in his statements, every day since tuesday, he has said that he's going to be an american president, not a red state president or blue state president. so i think he will be one way to -- i think he will be trying to understand what you just articulated as well. >> terrific point. well made. nicolle wallace, thank you.
a break for our coverage. when we come back, two things. some of the legal challenges that the white house is mounting in states all across this country where they're counting the heat vote. and number two, steve kornacki going to dive into some of those philadelphia suburbs that are so critical with the numbers they are holding right now. as we are holding at 253-214. a tally we've been told might just change in the next couple of hours, and if not, days, certainly. before voltaren arthritis pain gel, my husband would have been on the sidelines. but not anymore! an alternative to pills voltaren is the first full prescription strength non-steroidal anti-inflammatory gel to target pain directly at the source
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on the sleep number 360 special edition smart bed, now $1,799. only for a limited time. to learn more, go to sleepnumber.com so the question before us, if the lawful election process goes forward, is will the president's supporters accept the lawful result even if he is encouraging them not to? ♪ it is coming up on 8:30 p.m. on the east coast. we have been watching numbers trickle in all evening. in both georgia and in pennsylvania. now, when we last checked in, 94% of the vote in pennsylvania
is in. the difference between the two candidates, president trump still in the lead, but his lead has been shrinking all night long. has now dropped below 60,000 votes. when we started at the top of the night, we were at 78,000 votes lead for the president, then it dropped to 75,000, then dropped to 73,000, and 64,000. now it's down to 58,000. steve kornacki, are you prepared to tell us what's been going on most recently in pennsylvania and where this vote's coming from? >> yes, we got two counties that we just got more of the vote from in pennsylvania, so, again, as you see it tick down, it's under 60,000, the 2 counties we just got reports from are bucks county and delaware county. okay? so right outside philadelphia here. now, you see in delaware county, this is already a democratic county. this is already a place where biden's doing well. we said this is one of the bigger outstanding sources of votes in pennsylvania. we got about one-third of all the votes they have left to come
in delaware county. and you can see biden gained there from this report. he gained there about 3,000 -- excuse me, he gained pabt eed 0 votes. biden winning, though, 80% of what was just reported. 80% of what was just reported in delaware county. again, remember, we talked about that, on average as these mail ballots are being reported across the state, 76% of them are going for biden. the trend continues. here's a very democratic county. above the statewide average. biden getting 80% of the mail ballots. cuts into trump's lead with an incremental report from that county. where basically when we get these, we're just making sure every time that that trend that we think is established, that that's holding. if it starts changing, then we have to adjust our thinking here but the trend, that's what we want to just keep checking. is it holding up? because if it is, you can see where that can lead. i took you through the math a few minutes ago. take a look up at bucks county.
this is not as democratic a county. biden's winning the county but much more narrowly. different than what i just showed you. in the mail ballots we just got in here, biden's not doing quite as well. but he's doing well. he's getting 67% of them. so you see, in a swing county, biden's getting 67% of the mail-in ballots. in a democratic county, a pretty solidly democratic county, he's getting 80% of them. in delaware county. and in philadelphia, an overwhelmingly democratic city, he's picking up 90%-92% of the mail-in ballots. so, again, these things are tracking. if you just take a look at the gap that biden faces statewide right now, 58,000, and if you look at the number of ballots that are left to be counted in the state, statewide, factoring in philadelphia, factoring in -- biden just needs to average statewide about 63%. he basically needs to get 63% of every outstanding vote in the
state of pennsylvania to overtake trump. 63%. he just got 830%. 67%. the biggest city and biggest outstanding source of votes, he's been getting 90%. >> so, steve, it feels like that's a lot of individual entegers the math is easy to understand what it's likely to be at the end of vice president biden. >> the two variables, yeah, are number one, every time we get a report from a county, i'm going through the math we just went through there, i want to see has there been any change, has there been any sudden shift, new pattern here, where suddenly trump is winning the mail vote? something like that that changes the expectation that we have which is biden is going to be winning big in the mail vote everywhere. so far i haven't seen that anywhere but i check every time. remains a variable with what's outstanding. only other things besides that, again, these expected vote numbers we're getting here, we are getting them from the state. and we have seen in the last couple of days, whether it's
pennsylvania or other states, sometimes we'll get estimates from states and then the estimate is changed then, oh, wait, this county actually has this many. there's always a possibility of something like that happening. so i'm working off the estimate what the state says is its belief of the votes that are out in each one of these counties. if that is correct, if the information from the state is correct, on what's outstanding from them, and if the pattern we're going through just continues to hold then, yes, it's -- it is that simple. >> and i should note that the other potential externality here could be legal challenges, don't you think, going on there, but as we just discussed with the attorney general from the state of pennsylvania, obviously, he's the one who's defending pennsylvania's voting procedures and laws from -- what's happening from the republicans in the trump campaign, but from his perspective, there's absolutely nothing substantive or potentially significant in terms of affecting any number of ballot -- any significant number of ballots in any of the legal challenges that the trump campaign and the republicans
have thus far brought. so, we're starting to get a clearer picture of the whole story in pennsylvania. back over to you, brian. >> i heard you say "legal challenges" which brings to mind our chief legal correspondent, ari melber who's covering nothing but. ari? >> thank you, brian. i want to hit two points in this update. one underscoring exactly what rachel was just discussing in the news-worthy interview with the attorney general. the key point there is not only whether or not the challenge is valid, he suggested it's not in pennsylvania, but that even if the trump campaign won and got some of those mail ballots tossed out, it wouldn't be enough. it would be, as he put it, several thousand or less. and we heard from the secretary of state, would be under 1,000 in her update this morning. so that's really important. is the case any good? even if the trump campaign won, would it spread the kind of margin that kornacki has been showing at the big board for pennsylvania? the answer being no. in other words, you lose on the law, or you lose on the facts.
that's bad news for the trump campaign in pennsylvania. one of the last places that as rachel's reporting emphasizes where they think they have a path. the second update i want to do relates to what happened earlier tonight. the president spoke. brian williams cut away. we didn't air parts of what the president said. i do want to update viewers on the legal facts from that. because something really interesting happened at the white house. for all the weeks and months of talk about voter fraud and donald trump's threats and warnings and claims, what we saw tonight was lacking in any specific legal plan to affect anything in the election. so the president spoke, but he didn't have the white house counsel or the attorney general or private legal team there. he did not outline any specific way that they would either use cases to defend states where they're winning or change the results in states where they're losing. again, going back to rachel's interview, we heard from the attorney general of pennsylvania explaining, well, in one of those cases today it was about where people stand in the room. fine. that's not moving any results. the other thing in my notes i want to mention is the president here didn't really seem to have
a firm grasp on how courts are involved in american elections. not my place to get into why, but i'll tell you this, the president spoke tonight and seemed to assume, he said, he's claiming states, so is joe biden, the courts will have the last word. that's not the case. under state law and federal precede precedent, courts do not tend to get involved in these results once they're certified and go to the lawful process. they're more of a last resort. i think that's a really important point in the days ahead. the president can say what he says. the lower courts can hear something. but the idea that any person, a candidate or otherwise, goes and makes claims, that doesn't mean the appeals court yet alone the supreme court want to get involved. they typically defer to what happens in a state unless there's overwhelming evidence of a problem or it's super close. so i would leave everyone with this because the president spoke tonight, we may hear him again in the days ahead, the federal courts of the united states, which have been dealing with elections for literally hundreds of years, they're not twitter. you can't just post anything and then have them spend their time on it.
they have high bars and so there's no evidence we have as of tonight, it could change, if it does, i'll report it, but there's no legal evidence we have tonight that suggests there would be the kind of cases that would go up the federal courts into the supreme court to deal with or change what we're seeing so far on the big board. brian? >> ari melber at our los angeles studios. ari, thank you very much. another break for our coverage. we are continuing to watch the board. the raw numbers coming in from several states. in some cases one at a time, in some cases by the dozen, by the hundreds. that and more when we come back. still your best friend. and now your co-pilot. still a father. but now a friend. still an electric car. just more electrifying. still a night out. but everything fits in. still hard work.
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but before we sign i gotta ask... sure, anything. we searched you online and maybe you can explain this? i can't believe that garbage is still coming in. that is so false! frustrated with your online search results? call reputation defender today to join tens of thousands who've improved their online reputation. get your free reputation report card at reputationdefender.com or call 1-877-866-8555. welcome back. we have ongoing news here. georgia tightening. pennsylvania tightening. and we're expecting another
round of vote out of the state of arizona in around 20 minutes. steve kornacki at the big board, steve, what do you got? >> yeah, we got news first, i'll get you to arizona. let's start in pennsylvania because i got it teed up here. just keep you posted as we get the vote in, here's more, c cutting trump's statewide lead to 53,221 votes. where did this vote come from? comes from lehigh county. that's where allentown is. we talked about this is one of the big outstanding areas of vote. there are still mail-in ballots to come from this county, but gist got a bunch more and, by the way, how, what was the p percentage of the vote that biden's getting from them? remember, we want to see if he's still in every one of the reports winning it overwhelmingly. 75%. he's getting 75% of this new batch of mail-in votes that were reported out. therefore, it helps him cut down that statewide lead that donald trump has to just 53,000. by the way, at 53,000 now, you
know, if we watched this thing come down significantly since we've been on the air, at 53,000, we're clearly past the point here where if the votes that are left in philadelphia are what we are being told they are, just in terms of the size, and biden wins them by anything approaching what he's been winning those mail votes in in philadelphia, philadelphia, itself, would be more than enough now to vault biden over trump in that statewide lead. so one thing to keep in mind as that continues to dwindle, now just 53,000. in terms of arizona, that's where about 20 minutes, half an hour from now, 18 minutes according to that thing, we get some news, i think. we're going it get maricopa county, we're going to get another big batch of votes from maricopa county. this is, again, is, like, 60%, maybe a little bit more, of the state population. phoenix, phoenix metro area. and this is where hundreds of thousands of votes remain here. that's the clear majority of the votes that are to come
statewide. we have seen as we wait this maricopa report which we think will come about 9:00 eastern, a lot of the other counties in arizona have released reports of their own and the net effect has been to trump's benefit. he's brought down joe biden's lead another 11,000 votes in arizona. so biden now leads statewide in arizona by 56,000 votes. and so, again, that trend, the key here had been, we said, with the votes remaining statewide, okay, trump needed to be winning those by at roughly a 59% rate, if he was going to have a chance to erase all of joe biden's lead. the net effect i can tell you of the votes that we've gotten this evening from all of the other maricopa counties, the net effect has not been to change that. trump is still on that same pace that we're talking about. that 59% pace. so it makes it even more critical when we get the maricopa results here.
at 9:00, we think. we get more of the maricopa county results. that's the question we're asking. is trump still sitting there getting 59% of these new votes, getting more than 59% of these new votes? if the answer to that is, yes, donald trump continues to have a realistic chance of overtaking joe biden in arizona. if the number comes in lower, significantly lower than 59%, then we could change our thinking about the possibility of trump overtaking biden. so it's going to be a big moment. again, biggest county. by far the biggest share of the outstanding votes in arizona. that's what we're looking for, is trump getting around 59%? that's the number we're going to be looking for for trump when those numbers are released, again, pretty soon, we think. >> all right. steve, i want to do another round on georgia as well. the per durdue race is now down he's below 50%. but i want to complete this thought on arizona. and vaughn hillyard is in scottsdale. vaughn, you heard all that from
steve. what can you add from there? >> reporter: steve is absolutely right, brian, we are going to be getting these results from maricopa county. i just got off the phone with an elections official here in the county. they said that roughly 730,00,0 votes are expected to drop here at the top of this hour. also the new news an additional batch is slated to drop tomorrow morning around 11:00 a.m. eastern, 9:00 a.m. local time here. in the big question that steve just outlined is the trump campaign has consistently hit their marks. with what they have needed to accomplish with the ballots that have come in, they've hit those marks. sem essentially the metaphor we could use, the trump train has moved right along here. as the ballots come down to the tuesday early ballots that have to be processed by the county, will those maintain the pace that the trump kamd pacampaign n here or will democratic and independent voters come in at a higher rate on tuesday and
dilute the trump number down from the 59% number that steve just outlined? i think, brian, your next guest will help make that case. >> vaughn hillyard in arizona, thank you for that. rachel? >> our next guest, democratic congressman ruben. a marine corps combat veteran, iraq war veteran. sir, thank you for your time tonight. it's good to have you here. >> thank you for having me. >> right now with the count that we've got in arizona, with about 88% of the vote in, joe biden leads by just under 57,000 votes. but as we've been discussing with what's expected from your county, from maricopa county tonight, in coming days, as that vote comes in, it looks like the president is on track to sort of tie it up with vice president biden. we think. that's our best guess. in terms of the math and our extrapolations. i want to ask if that best guess here comports with what you're expecting in your state.
>> i don't, you know, he's been keeping the marks to keep up and essentially tread water but i know, for example, my very democratic district, my very blue district, is still has about 30,000 outstanding ballots. i think there is another democratic district next to me, congressman stan who also has another 30,000 ballots minimum outstanding. that is in the mix. that's still left. we have a lot of drop-off ballots that favor democrats and independents. this is going to be the best batch they have, it's going to be difficult for them to fully come back. at the end of the day the democrats did the right thing to win this race here in arizona. >> i was struck, sir, by your own race this year, every member of the house is. every two years. you were no exception. you beat your republican challenger by i believe in excess of 50 points in your district. congratulations and congratulations on the lack of drama there. but i wanted to know what you
thought, based on your own experience, your own knowledge of maricopa county, your own experience of democratic party's efforts in that state, what people should understand abo aboabout how the two sides did contesting this race. it's still so close. sounds like you believe that vice president biden's going to pull it out in the end. we will wait and see as the numbers come in, but how do you feel the two candidates did just in trying to woo the voters in your district and in your state? >> well, i think the right thing that vice president biden did and his amazing staff here in arizona is that they realize that in order for democrats to win in arizona, we have to actually cast a wider net. republicans actually have higher voting registration than we do. so in order for us to win, we both have to motivate democrats, we have to motivate independents to come out. our base is very young. so, you can't just go operate and try to turn out the vote in swing districts. that's why my race was always going to be for sure. i was always going to beat my opponent by a lot, but the reason why i put a lot of time
and money and effort into my district is we needed to have higher turnout in order for us to make sure that we could compensate for some of the republican turnout. so, you know, that's what i think happened here, correctly. i think the biden campaign did an amazing effort and investment in the latino community that really swung it back where we are producing higher returns from -- from latinos than we did with secretary clinton in terms of both percentage but also just in raw votes because there are now more registered latinos. >> around this time last night, congressman, we had some footage from maricopa county from the office where votes are being counted there. and we saw maricopa county sheriff's deputies outside protecting the building, itself, but they weren't maintaining any sort of perimeter and we saw trump supporters who were boisterous, in some ways, in some accounts characterized as intimidating.
both trying to get inside that building and having quite a raucous protest outside. as the vote stretches on in maricopa county, it's so important as to the overall resolution of this race, are you worried about physical security count continues? >> well, look, i'm worried about security. i'm not worried about intimidation. we're arizonans. we're tough. we were the people that were getting chased around by sheriff joe arpaio years ago with his, you know, a lot of his, you know, deputies that he tried to use for political purposes. you know, the county recorder of maricopa county is a marine. he's not going to be afraid. and we're arizona tough. so we're going to finish these votes. we count. we count every ballot. and, you know, i don't know what the arguments are from that crowd. some of them are arguing we should count every ballot, which we will. some of them are arguing we should only count the legal ballots, which that's all we do. then there's this wild
conspiracy theory spread by republicans and the president themselves about different types of neffioarious things that jus aren't occurring. deep down they know they're losing arizona, and there's really not much they can do to turn this around. this is a last shot by a lot of same people we see all the time in arizona, the qanon crowd, the militia, the black helicopter crowd all getting together on one issue that really doesn't make any sense. >> congressman ruben gallego, thank you so much for being with us tonight. as i mentioned, we're expecting more vote out of your county, out of maricopa county within the next ten minutes or so. appreciate you being here to help us understand it. again, it does look in arizona right now as things are tightening. the biden is lead is at about 56,800 votes right now. but as we see that vote come in, the trump campaign is hoping there will be enough to catch biden from behind. but we shall see. it's interesting, joy.
congressman gallego there, who knows his district very well -- >> right. >> -- who like i said just won by more than 50 points in his district in maricopa county, expressing confidence that he doesn't think trump is going to be able to catch biden there. i'm looking at the map. i honestly don't know. >> the thing is i'm glad that he also mentioned the latino vote because i think there has been a skewed narrative about the latino vote based on miami-dade county, one county in florida does not represent the latino vote. but i think it is psychologically sort of skewed people into not really understanding where the vast majority of the latino vote went. states like nevada and arizona are highly likely to fall into biden's camp. and even the campaign feels this way as well because they had a huge surge of latino voters, of new latino voters, of young latino voters. you know, there's always been this question, maria teresa kumar has been on our shows. there's always been this question of when does that vehicle code actually pop? of all the populations, the
latino vote is the youngest. like all young people, it's hard to get them to vote. as that vote matures, it's one of the fastest growing populations and will become a juggernaut for the democratic party. it's starting to kick in now. and the non-cuban vote, which is all of the west -- set aside miami-dade -- that's biden country. >> nbc's gadi schwartz joins us from the maricopa county elections department, which was the scene of much drama last night when we joined gadi live. tell us what you're seeing on the ground right now. >> reporter: hey, rachel. we've got our light on today. it's a much different vibe. we've got a pretty sizeable crowd, but so far we've seen them praying. we've seen them talking a lot about -- pretty much sharing information. a lot of them are confused as to how the election process worked, especially when it came to sharpies. we've had some people come out and try to explain why the sharpies are fine to use on those ballots. we've had some people here
talking about how they don't want to hear about the conspiracies. they don't want to hear from qanon speakers, which is what we were hearing earlier today. they want to talk about making sure the focus is on the election and the focus is on making sure all of these votes are counted and counted quickly. there's a lot of frustration now here that it's taking so long. they feel that it should have already been done. they should already have an answer. meanwhile inside that building, that's the building over there. there are a team of poll workers. they are counting those ballots. we're expecting not a huge batch, probably another batch within 70,000, 80,000 to drop tonight. we know that the lead between biden and trump, biden in front is starting to narrow. every single time one of these batches comes out, the last two times times, it's narrowed down to 68,000, 69,000 votes. again, it's six minutes, seven minutes until we should get that batch. it should give us a little bit
of an idea of how this is going. but the latest from the election officials inside is we're probably not going to know the final results tomorrow. it could be this weekend before we have the final tally here in arizona. >> gadi, real quickly i'm sort of doing the geometry as i'm talking to you. one of the things i was concerned about last night is it felt like that somewhat volatile crowd was really close to the building. indeed, you described how some members of the crowd had tried to get into the building earlier and had gotten through the doors. am i right in surmising right now that the crowd's actually being kept a little further away from the building tonight? >> reporter: absolutely. so let me show you actually. we're going to walk this way. we are -- this is where things get a little -- you saw how dicey things were yesterday. >> yeah. >> reporter: today they've set up this barrier. this right here, this is a fence that they've installed. that is a media staging area on the other side, and then this right here, you can see this sign. it says "freedom of speech
zone," so that's where everyone is allowed to congregate here. they say they're doing that just to keep the crowds managed and to try to keep the poll workers in a safe place where they can concentrate on what's most important right now, and that's getting that vote counted. rachel. >> gadi schwartz for us in maricopa county. gadi, great reporting. thank you very much. we're going to take a quick break. when we come back, we're expecting, as gadi just said there, 70,000 votes out of arizona. you will want to see this when we come back. stay with us.
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good evening. so glad to have you with us tonight. 9:00 p.m. in the east right now. night three of our ongoing election coverage. we don't know how long it's going to go on. neither do you. that's fine. five battleground states are now still too close to call. say it with me now. pennsylvania, georgia, north carolina, nevada, arizona.