tv The 11th Hour With Stephanie Ruhle MSNBC May 17, 2022 11:00pm-12:00am PDT
with rewards for the whole family! from epic trips... to jurassic-themed at-home activities. join over 3 million members and start enjoying rewards like these, and so much more in the xfinity app! and don't miss jurassic world:dominion thanks for joining us, i am ari, in theaters june 10th. reporting live from nbc election headquarters, we're tracking these reports for primary elections in five states across the country. some -- projection of the republican nomination for governor's doug mastriano, that's another key race for the republican nominee is now also a january 6th rally
attendee, the far-right election denier was in the capital on election day, he got a push from some less radical -- concerns about his viability in the general, where he faces the relatively popular pennsylvania attorney general josh bureau. a democrat who could benefit from mastriano's extremism. here at midnight on the east coast, we can also tell you the state's republican senate primary remains too close to call, mehmet oz is basically tied with dave mccormick, while the super mega candidate is trailing in third kathy barnette. the number two official in that state john fetterman defeating connor, lamb fetterman is not giving a traditional victory speech tonight, we won't have that for you, because he's currently recovering from a stroke in the hospital, he's expected to make a full recovery.
then there is a call on a giant upset, allows for republican -- madison cawthorn, now you may have, heard as you see right here on your screen, officially a one term or. losing his seat to chuck edwards, crawford has made a call to concede, the interview that race has ensuring that will get into later tonight. now ted budd has won the republican nomination for senate in north carolina, where he's facing off against supreme court chief justice, sherry beastly, the democrat. then we have kornacki had the big board, and he's tracking the open races right now, which include idaho, polls close in the last hour, the republican governor there faces a primary challenge from his own lieutenant, a trump endorsed me who may move that party further to the right, even in the very red state there. the race, too early to call. and a nail-biter, the democratic primary for 80 and a house seat in pennsylvania,
where the margin is just over a miniscule 500 votes that separate liberal community organizer some early, and lawyer steve erwin. i made a promise, and we intend to deliver on it. you know it's election items in america, when you have our friend and colleague steve kornacki at the big board, he's been following all of these races. he'll give us the latest now. >> yeah, let's start with the closest, one it's been the closest all night, the panel pennsylvania republican primary, you see david mccormack with a lead over mitt was, of about 2687 votes. now we take you through where the outstanding votes are, because there's a couple of pieces to this right now. just moments ago mccormack got a very good piece of news for his campaign, we've been talking about these counties right outside of philadelphia, the suburban collar companies outside of philadelphia. voter rich, about a quarter of all voters will come out, of it may become slow to report.
one of the big ones we got, delaware county we've got a big batch of votes from delaware company. it's a good batch of votes for mccormick, he leaves in that batch over oz so that helped to push david mccormack's lead up statewide that number that you see right there. now the other places here in the philadelphia area where we have big outstanding votes will start in montgomery county you can still see a lot to come in montgomery county. it is kathy barnette's home county it's listed on the ballot as her home county. it's listed on the ballot is his home county as well. interesting lee our system we receive votes from is not necessarily plugged into the website of the county and we were just looking at the website of the county and the website of the county is reporting out a few more votes than we have so far recorded in our system and the upshot of it is that according to the website for montgomery county ought oz could be due to net in
the next few minutes about 1600 votes this writing thing isn't working well. 1600 is what i'm trying to tell you if that does to get added into the system, one montgomery is showing on its website, then that statewide lead of about 2600 for mccormick would come down to about 1000. we may see this about another county that reported -- getting bits and pieces from around the state. but there's an opportunity and offices home county of montgomery to narrow, for him to significantly narrow that gap with mccormack. and that would leave one other major piece of unsettled business in the philadelphia area, it's bucks county because a lot of votes still to come in bucks county, and this is gonna have a lot to say about where the statewide results finally lands tonight, between mccormack and oz so it's a nail-biter between mccormack and oz the philadelphia suburbs the biggest piece of outstanding votes. you see what's going on in those places. two things to keep in mind,
number one wherever this lands tonight, the final margin is critical because pennsylvania state law is automatic recount is the if the margin is low center equal to half a percent, to 0.5. you can see right now and 0.2, it's two tenths of a point separating these candidates. so the prospect of a recount looms as a significant possibility at this point. the other thing to keep in mind is, they've counted a few more in the last few minutes or see now is that they're about 30,000 mail in ballots that haven't been counted some counties are gonna count them up at the very end of tonight but there are a number of counties in pennsylvania that are not going to touch their mail-in ballots until tomorrow so there is the prospect that a significant chunk of these 30,000 or so mailed ballots will not be counted until tomorrow so again you can do the math you can see how mccormack unknowns have been within a couple of thousand votes of each other for hours now this thing could land
within a couple of thousand votes either way when the night is over and we could be sitting at a pool of mail-in ballots to be opened tomorrow and counties across the state that could decide this thing the one thing i could tell you about the mail-in balance is that those have been counted so far mccormack has been leading all caused by nine points among them this is a trend we've seen in republican primaries across the country so far the spring oz has the trump endorsement, the candidates backed by trump the candidates backed by the trump aligned groups have tended to do worse with the mail-in votes and better on the same day votes so there is an untapped votes of mail-in votes at the end of the night that could decide the election there might be some cause for optimism from the mccormack count on that counts. so that's one other thing to keep inside in mind on pennsylvania again potential for recount, potential for thousands of mail-in ballots to be counted tomorrow and still a ton of votes to be counted
particularly in the philadelphia area tonight. >> steve, we're following pennsylvania they're listening to break down, and we just got a projection here it's an official projection of brad little winning in idaho. that is from our election debt, walk us through it. >> i think the numbers, there may be the easiest ways just to go across the country and won a big country. >> steve, take your time if you need to travel all the way to the west coast or over their get over there. >> there it is, he was a senate race let's get to the governor's race, you can see bad little there's got some attention because the trump endorsement of mcginn and his lieutenant governor there were going over it's a very unusual relationship, she would overrule his executive orders when he left the state, particularly on covid measures. you can see is pretty much a thorough victory here for brad little the incoming governor the other race in idaho than i think is worth looking at
coming into tonight, you take a look here, mike simpson incumbent republican, he was getting a challenge from the right. he's one of about three dozen republicans who voted for the creation of that independent january six commission, so there is some chatter that simpson might find himself in trouble in this primary, but no signs of troubles so far for simpson, there is one main challenge here from brian smith on the right, i think people were looking at this and saying. it looks like the results are actually gonna be pretty lopsided. >> fantastic, well look, steve that's fascinating because we're getting calls and your breakdown, as we take keep an eye on all this we're gonna go back there directly, to ron hilliard has been a doctor officers headquarters, the candidate just addressing the crowd. volunteers, what is happening there. >> yeah, ari, office just
walked on to the stage and told the crowd to get some rest, that there are days at head here, and why we're standing here we are in bucks county which is one of those very counties that steve was just laying out, this is more affluent suburbs north about 45 or 50 minutes of philly philadelphia this is where a great part of the vote is outstanding, this is the very area where minute oz is relying on having a great share of the vote here their county right next door to us, montgomery county. which is exactly where mehmet oz helped his final campaign rally last night with hundreds of folks. it was essentially trying to galvanize support in this area. now why are we, why are these counties so important for mehmet oz beyond the obvious need to garner some votes here?
>> it's important because kathy barnett became a factor on all of. this kathy barnett is not going to win the senate nomination here. at the same time, we may be talking about tomorrow and the west of the week, the way that she impacted this race here. look at montgomery county. her also her home county. right now for the results that have come, and she is leading oz in montgomery county by about seven percentage points. several thousand votes here. but then you also look at bucks county. odd is leading here, but, she has about 24% of the share here. and i was talking just earlier here to an advisor of barnett who acknowledged to me that they felt like they were able to take quite a dance pop up on the support. sort of that soft support the oz was facing among a lot of people who were skeptical of him despite that trump endorsement. and she really ran her candidacy around this idea that she was the most maga candidates. and that maga expanded beyond donald trump. and i think that's why we're talking about the reshaping of this republican party in 2022. ultimately, trump is going to walk away with a lot of winds adding a lot of these loyalist to his table here. at the same time, he may find other individuals.
i don't think david mccormick, a couple years ago is the same david mccormick that we will be seeing on the campaign trail here. in the months ahead. but as we watch it come down to the wire here, montgomery county, bucks county, exactly where we are, going to be waking up tomorrow and see these results come in. >> thank you, and you mention montgomery county has one of the free to watch as well as where oz finished up yesterday. and steve, i'm hearing that we have new votes, new data out of montgomery county. take it away. >> this is what we were just talking about a minute ago and the last update had a montgomery county website was showing results that hadn't yet registered in our system. that look like they were favorable results for oz. barnett is actually going to win the county, this is her home county. pennsylvania ballots, they list candidates home counties on the. so if you were a montgomery county voters today, you saw that listed as a hometown candidate, and you saw was listed as a home county candidate. they ran 12 here.
mccormack is listed as allegheny county, western pennsylvania. so the upshot of all of this is, we've just got a big batch of votes from the website, recorded into our system. barnett will win the county, but on this next vote on mccormack. this is a big county, a big suburban county right outside philadelphia. and look at that. does it brings the mccormick lead statewide to 1020 votes. it is now 1004 votes we. he's got another small update. from another county. it's one tenth of 1%. separating oz from mccormick. and as was just saying. we are getting significant both from philadelphia suburban counties. it makes bucks loom large. we can see we still have a lot about to come in in bucks, of at least early perhaps could be incurred by what we are seeing at a. bucks one of the other philadelphia areas here, the opportunity -- delaware actually we are close to all in delaware. so bucks looms particularly large now as an opportunity for oz to further our road that
mccormack lead into trying to overtake mccormack. again, there are counties all across the state where we have scattering of those coming in as well. anything significant we see will let you know. but at the biggest single one, that we are keeping an eye on right now is right there. it's bucks county. >> all right, a real nail-biter in pennsylvania. steve tracking that. given that we are watching this, i want to bring back michael steele who's been watching all of this tonight, we go on the ground to w. h. y. y. i why in philadelphia. katie mayer political reporter there. thank you for joining us, what do you make of it at this hour given what we're learning and how tight it is? >> yeah, it's very tight. this is a race where both of the candidates who are now competing for these trenches about that are coming in in the suburbs don't have extremely tight ties to pennsylvania or to the areas where they live. so, yeah oz has montgomery county listed as his hometown on the ballot. but it doesn't have a history there. it is not a political history there. and that does matter in this
race. where you really can't tell how the votes are gonna split in these again, really important populist suburban counties around philadelphia. same for that david mccormick. he did well around allegheny county, but again, he hasn't been there many years. that's a factor in this. >> when you look at barnett slipping, she was sort of both boyd and perhaps complicated by the closing message that tied back to january six, and more and more scrutiny of the commons that she made attacking minorities. you have the sense at this hour of how that's playing? is she underperforming as someone would call a surge for the self described supermaga candidate? >> it was always really difficult to tell what that surge was going to be, because it was so last-minute and it was happening when she hadn't been scrutinized very much and he was constantly being buffeted by negative ads. and not just saying that she was involved in january six. the oz campaign had a pac that funded and add up, a packet
supported oz. an ad that said that barnett accuse her of saying that white people can be racist. so the attacks are coming from a confused set of angles by republicans. who were really taken aback by her rise. i think that the fact that it was difficult to interpret what that meant, it was borne out here where there was this dissatisfaction with oz. and with mccormick as gop candidates, as maybe sufficiently close to donald trump. at the end of the day, it was tough for her to make up that ground. >> and as for fetterman, clinching to the democratic side, we mentioned that he was still recovering. did you get anyway a sense of whether the voters had concerns about that? or they have gotten enough information that people didn't see it? excuse me as an issue. >> you hear that anecdotally absolutely from some voters. i will, say people had already been voting for weeks before fetterman became ill. and so i think, at this point, it's difficult to think how it played in with the final vote. and how much voters are gonna care about that. and it's gonna be much more of
a factor in the general and we see and recover. if we can get back on the campaign trail. how long that takes. but yeah, at this point, it was very difficult to see what kind of impact that had on the primary vote. >> all right thank you katie meyer, reporting there from us for more than one race as everyone stays up late. i think we're gonna fit in a break before we get back to michael steele, who was here to discuss not only pennsylvania that we have such an eye on, to close the call in the oz race, but as well, what the republican party is going to do tonight with some of these returns coming in. michael steele, kornacki at the big board, a lot more, our live coverage continues, after this.
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because there are no consequences. we can't wait. recall chesa boudin now. minute oz. the odds now 714 points, in less than one tenth of 1%, but oz leaves a statewide we said we were waiting on bucks county, just outside of philadelphia. we don't have all the votes from bucks, but i think we got a big chunk of what was left in bucks, and on is leading the way over mccormack, his margin in the counties just over 3000 votes, the votes that were added in that recent drop four bucks enough to put on as a head statewide right now. now, where is the remaining vote? if you are watching a couple of minutes ago, there was a little confusion about one of the other colar counties, one of the other philadelphia counties, and that is delaware county. delaware county does have more votes to come, so specifically more votes to be counted here.
still have some to come in bucks, got most of montgomery, most of chester. delaware, the picture kind of shifts outside of philadelphia to delaware county, we do think a significant amount of votes are left here. you can see, so far, mccormack is leading oz with the votes have been counted so far. the opportunity exists here in delaware county, for mccormick to get back when he just lost, the hit that he just took in bucks county. for the moments, oz has taken the lead statewide. now, delaware county, it's smaller geographically but it is big mathematically at this late hour. delaware county looms large, there is a scattering of other precincts throughout the state that are gonna be coming in as well, if anything substantial comes in there. it wouldn't take anything that substantial to swing this back to mccormick, keep an eye on that and let you know too. like i keeps saying, we are not sure on the exact number, but there are uncounted mail in ballots, because there are a number of counties that preemptively announced before today that they were not going
to open their mail ballots until tomorrow, until after the election. some said they do it late at the end of tonight, so the number of uncounted mail ballots has come down a little bit as the night has gone along, but there are counties that have said they are not going to touch them in till tomorrow. so, there will be a certain number of mail balance, uncounted mail-in ballots probably tomorrow. it will loom large. like we said, mccormick so far, has been leading oz by nine points on those mail ballots. so, one of the questions now? is oz able to do well in the remaining votes in delaware? some of the remaining precincts around the state and pad this lead at all? is he going to need to pay the lead to withstand would could still be there in terms of mail-in ballots? that is one of the questions that is posed, this is a very significant development because all night we've been watching this, oz has been down 8000,
5000 votes, 2000 votes, 1000 votes. for the first time we've now seen mehmet oz take the lead statewide in this republican senate primary? >> a major development as you say, first-time development, steve kornacki, steve is at the big board as you understand he will be there for us we will get more data and more votes okay at any time when we get new data or new votes, but now as promised we bring you michael skilled former chairman of the republican national committee. welcome back, michael. >> hey, good to see you bro. >> good to have you. as we ask on nights like this, what is going on? what is going on, what do you see of both odds taking the lead, what are you seeing and more like the extremists like mastriano winning in pennsylvania on the gop side? >> it's kind of a bifurcated message from the gop base. in one sense, i think you look at the mccormick race, and what his race tells me is that they did a good job of pulling out of the larger portion of the
republican base that typically stays home. you have the hard edge right that will go play in primaries, mccormick looks like he was able to mitigate against that a bit print particularly given that he had barnette to his further right than mehmet oz, who is sitting there with trump 's endorsement. to be this competitive at this stage, is incredibly good for him, and it says a lot about what he was able to do. when you look at the other race, the governor's race, you see something a little bit different, in that that's seems to play more to the narrative of the hard right base. sort of pulling the lead up there. it's an interesting dynamic, it's going to set up a very, very dynamic fall campaign. regardless if it's mccormick or oz going into the fall with the republican nomination in their sails.
>> and in the governor's race, here is a little bit about how the republican, mastriano who did win the nomination, how he sounds. >> on day one, any mandates are gone. on day one, any jab for job requirements are gone. on day one, crt is over. we are going to exactly do that, and follow the science, right? so that means, only biological females can play on biological female teams. on day one, you can only use the bathroom that your biology and anatomy says. first -- 1:27 gives us all hope, but we will be found strong, that's his story. and he uses people like you and me to change history. they like to call people who stand on the constitution far-right and extreme. i repudiate that. actually, their party, which the media stands for and
advocates for they have gone extreme. >> take your pick. >> well, i ain't picking from that box of crazy. that's gonna be the challenge, going into the fall against shapiro. how do you now take that narrative into some core areas of the state where that is going to fall flat with a lot of voters. let's be clear, with a lot of center right, center left voters who may otherwise be available to you. it is not smart politics. but, he's talking to a room full of people who want to cheer on those narratives. it becomes a very different campaign now, when you're with running statewide, and every voter matters, not the core group that has been yelling your name for six months or a year, now the entire state comes to play and it looks very dynamic. unless you are telling me that, you know, pennsylvania, and i
know pennsylvania pretty well, having spent a lot of time there. suddenly now is going to use this culture war litmus test, as the guidepost for who they are going to support. mastriano is setting up a pretty dificult campaign, not just for him, but for other republicans who are going to be running down ballot as well. and that may have some impact on how those other races play out. >> and then, while i have, you i want to turn to madison cawthorn, who is one of the most well-known freshman members of congress but won't be anything other than a freshman member, losing tonight in a primary, incomes don't typically lose their primaries, people know that in north carolina. how do you interpret this quick rise and fall? from a very controversial far-right republican? >> a couple of things. one, i recall the tweet that he put out in may of 2021 in which
he tweeted not on anna hey hey goodbye, liz cheney. well tonight, mr. cawthorn realize that political karma is a bitch, and the reality is that he is now the former congressman from his congressional district. that's one. two, it also shows you that the republican party, if they put their mind to it, if they want to, can push back on the deniers and the liars, the fakes, the wannabes, the true rhinos in the republican party, like we -- but they don't want to. the only reason they did here, is because he struck a little bit close to their political vein, and they had to take them out. they made it very clear, early on, that that was going to be the plan. when you're talking about
cocaine parties and orgies, they were like, all right. that may show up in my twitter feed and i don't need to do deal with that. so this race now, sort of resets the playing field for how the party is going to respond, and it sends out a message that we are going to draw that line, and if you cross it will take you out. but that line won't include the big lie, january 6th, etc. >> all well put, and michael steele, proving among other things that he either keeps close watch on mr. cawthorn tweets, or knows how to search twitter. one or the other. >> right. i like to keep one eye on crazy just so i know how crazy it is. >> respects, one eye open, one eye up michael steele, good to see you. we're gonna go from someone -- to someone at the upper echelons of the other party. she was the press secretary of
2016 senior adviser to the biden campaign in 2020, also worked for vice president harris, but now recently has left government and joined us here at msnbc, where she anchors simone. thanks for making time tonight. >> absolutely, i enjoyed our conversation with the chairman, he always has great insights. >> respect, so we've actually the way it's gone both with some of the races and some of the numbers that have come in, we spent the first half hour here closing in on the east coast, more the republican side. i'm just curious, from your experience and vantage point now as a more independent analyst, but knowing a lot of these players, what do you see on the democratic side and what do you see as potential opportunities going up against some candidates, particularly
in pa that biden won, the candidates looked pretty extreme. >> well, i actually want to talk a little bit about what is happening in the republican, primaries and pennsylvania specifically, how can that play in the general election. i think the counties that steve has been talking, about talking about books, county chester, montgomery county. these are all counties that president biden won in 2020, and counties that were critical, frankly, to his overall win in pennsylvania. and, when you see the numbers, i've been watching all evenings on the big board as a tallies are coming in. this is a primary that we're looking, at in a general election some of those same voters are going back to the polls, we're in these swing counties if you will, these are not people who are ideologues, if you will, for either the political parties. and folks who are not very interested, if you will, in some of this extreme conversation. talking about, you know, criminalizing abortion, jailing women or doctors. no exceptions for rape and incest when it comes to
abortion. this ugly, racist underbelly, that has been wearing its ugly head. so these, i think it's really important to watch how those check counties shake out, because it will be a telltale for this november. on the democratic side, i'll just say very quickly that, i think there was a really robust primary when it came to the senate for the democratic race, i think that john fetterman, what we see from him the democrats who are running in the neo-biden agenda. the question is, can john inspire a base of the democratic party, can he speak to voters in western pennsylvania. but can he inspire people to vote for him in philly. there's a lot of people who are concerned if you can get that done, what will be held hopeful for him i think it's josh shapirro, someone who is very,
popular twice elected, ag in the state. he is a democratic government candidate, and someone who has been going around the state. i think there's a lot of energy for josh, particularly because of who will be facing a november. >> yeah, you look at all that, and you look we were talking about cawthorn, we are discussing sort of the energy in the republican party, which seems very mobilized, and also kind of asserting their loyalty test, or whatever you want to call it. how does that play against the mobilization that might come if anything like this draft aleto opinion over ruling roe comes out. it's very hard to know, but i'm curious your position as someone who's been in communications and work on campaigns, does this matter for democratic turnout in the primaries, when it's in this weird conditional mode, it's a lead, but nothing has happened yet. and if that lead turns into a ruling, do you think that affects democratic turnout and mobilization in the general? >> oh yes, and i do think that leak is turning into a ruling. the leaked draft from justice alito said that the justices had voted, if you like the
makeup of the court, i am hard-pressed to believe that enough folks have changed theirs mind, for roe v. wade not to be overturned from my vantage point, it; s not a question of if but when. i do think it matters how candidates, democrats talk about the issue. if the rhetoric is going out there saying all republicans are radical, or republicans or this, if folks are painted with a broad stroke brush i don't. think they'll see success, but i think the folks that can triangulate around the draft decision, the eventual decision of roe v. wade overturned, is to talk about what that means. we are talking about the criminalization of, women were talking about doctors potentially been jailed. we're talking about the republican candidate for governor in pennsylvania. he doesn't believe in exceptions for rape or incest, for abortion. he believes that women should be forced to have the babies. folks have to talk about how
this is also talking about rights to privacy, those are conversations that cut across parties when you just talk to people in voters, people don't want extremes. some of these things people just heard me say might say, oh, that sounds like something out of the handmaids tail, that sounds insane and crazy. those are a lot of the things, that republicans across the country, people in pennsylvania are talking about. >> simone sanders, staying up late with us. up next, new numbers from kornacki at the big board, and david plouffe, a key member of the obama campaign is here, we'll be right back, you're watching msnbc. snbc guys, excuse me. i didn't quite get that. i'm hard of hearing. ♪♪ oh hey, don't forget about the tense music too.
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>> it's election i in america and we are tracking all the results with msnbc steve kornacki at the big board. steve what is the latest? >> 637 votes, that is mehmet oz lead over david mccormick. as we see we have more than 90% of the votes in. let's take you right through where is the outstanding vote? where are the biggest batches of votes left? the most the biggest single batch of outstanding votes is in delaware county. right outside of philadelphia. you see how delaware is looking right now. the second biggest bat outstanding votes. bucks county where office got a big boost recently, that put
him ahead statewide. the third biggest batch outside outstanding votes is outside the state capitol. where harrisburg is. the fourth biggest batch of outstanding votes isn't lancaster county. a lot of these are mail-in ballots, they've had some mechanical some technical issues. some prophesy issues with mail ballots. a lot of these are going to be mail ballots. another large batch of outstanding votes, it's incompetent county where carlisle is. five outstanding votes again. with mom and was leading by 637 votes statewide. where do we expect things to go from here? again, it all of these counties, and some others, they are going to continue to count up the same day votes. the election day votes. the votes that was cast by people who went to the polls today. we are going to see how that ends up affecting all of these different numbers. different counties are handling the mail-in ballots differently. some counties have counted them all. some counties are gonna count them all tonight. some others say they are gonna
get to what they can't tonight, do the rest tomorrow. and even sums that said we are not touching mail ballots at all until tomorrow. so we don't know when this night will. and exactly with the number will be. but there will be a significant batch of uncounted mail-in ballots. even after they get through counting up the same day both in all of these different counties. right now, the number of uncounted mail ballots is down to about 29,000. as they say a lot of these counties. this thing really doesn't want to write. it's about 29, 29,000 right now. it was down. two against him of these counties are knocking them off as the night ends. so that number will come down to a bit tonight. but there will be mail in ballots last. and a number of counties, to be open to be processed, to be counted tomorrow. and again, just looking at the lay of the land here. there are counties where mccormick is doing better than us. caddies were all just doing better than mccormack. the possibility certainly looms that as we get through all of the same day votes.
that the margin between these candidates's razor-thin. and we are looking at a batch of mail-in ballots tomorrow, that is pick enough to decide this race. the potential certainly exist for that, as i said on top of all of that, there is the state law, there is the recount, if you are within half a point, certain ugly right now we are in within half a point. >> really striking which speaks to why, odds, steve may have emphasized this supporters hey, keep your powder dry, stay rested. can we go back steve on camera here, i was just going to say, you deserve a better marker. the president that you bring to the numbers. i tried to write number 20. oh my goodness is what i'm saying! 20. a! there we go. kind of >> works i can read those those are discernible numbers steve. >> 29,000 is all i was trying to buy right there. >> there it is i see it. >> and as you say we all better see. it keep an eye what currently is but you say, potentially that recount margin.
these days with, us we turn now to david brought. former obama campaign manager. msnbc analyst. david, there are many things that we are gonna get into. i am curious of your view of how we go at someone like mastriano. we showed some of the remarks earlier. almost sounds like a grab bag of trumpy elon musk trolling tweets. he has his party behind him in pennsylvania. will we have the general election to boot? >> well ari, there's a lot of storylines tonight. his nomination and what that would mean if he won, the general election to me. the biggest story that we have the insurrection at the top of the ticket in pennsylvania. a massive state in america and will be a core battleground state in the battle of 24, how that unfolds. that's the big story. joshua perot, has a proven go getter, quite popular. what's interesting i think if you look at whether it's oz or mccormack, who comes to the primary, you got shapiro and
fetterman clearly democrats have an edging candidate quality. it's going to be a tough political environment. the question, is do they have enough quality? i think there is a gap between them particularly when you think about pennsylvania the kind of candidates who have been successful before. you spend a lot of time with the was talking about the suburbs. mastriano will struggle there. in the general election. and that's a wild cart. roe v. wade, if that does get overturned as a wildcard. and also the fact that mastriano is not mulling the words, playing along with trump. he was like leading the fight. and is that something that can help democrats, shapiro specifically? democrats generally down a ballot. and in pennsylvania. i think it might. so it'll be interesting to see what mastriano decides at all to moderate it all. my guess would be not. and so i think, he is a big target from that standpoint over josh shapiro. >> now though we are seeing the proven of the put in some of these races. are you surprised by how many republicans are focused as you mentioned on insurrection? big lie?
january six issues? as well as kind of a coterie of other attempts at those divisions rather than say, inflation? and areas where you can argue that the biden administration either didn't and hurt the economic environment that it had. or is not doing enough on it that republicans would argue. >> well listen ari, you have to win the conference finals to get to the championship. and so, for these republicans who are running in states and districts where they have to win a tough primary, they can't look out the windshield towards a general election. there won't be a general election if they don't win the primary. and we see the madison cawthorn, good for the republican i think that they lost. they still got the 31% of the vote.
there are a lot of votes and crazy land. if you look, or add on together. i think that's gonna be north of 60%. so that's why i think they still have to appeal. now somebody like mccormick who, in authentically try to be maga, try to be a bunch of things that he is not. when the craziest caught up to in your way in someone like that country through the middle. didn't even have to win a primary,. that's why i think you still see that. and the question is. when you make the turns of the general election, some of them will try to put some distance between themselves and some of the crazier stuff. but some won't. and i think austria no will not. i think he's going to run proudly as someone who was a proponent that the election can get overturned. and i think in pennsylvania, statewide, and harrisburg schlossberg, and some of the pittsburgh, certainly those big votes producing counties outside of philadelphia. and they've got her not just him but the entire ticket. >> david plouffe, with your analysis tonight, thank you. we have a lot more coming up including some new numbers we
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will see through that. >> madison cawthorn argued that people would see through it, but he did just lose his seat here by losing the primary to chuck edwards of north carolina. and we are joined now by -- a veteran of several presidential campaigns, including the obama campaign. thanks for joining, what do you see as the reason for this loss? >> look, madison cawthorn sort of broke the code of silence, he attacked his own caucus. i think it's very important for us to draw the distinction, between madison cawthorn and matt gates. what matt gates is accused of, and what he is involved with i would argue are far worse than what cawthorn has been accused, of intimate involved. with the problem, is there's no serious primary challenger to matt gaetz. there was to madison cawthorn, what was a difference?
madison cawthorn attacked his own party, you simply can't do that. >> yes, so you're saying that well cawthorn had all these other issues, we see here he's losing this primary tonight. when he alluded to, embarrassments from his past, these very grandiose and odd behavior patterns, as well as being a right-wing extremist. you think he came down to loyalty, as none other than kendrick lamar might say. who are you loyal to when the lights get dark? is your loyalty coming from the heart? your view here is this is much more about republicans demanding partisan loyalty than the actual substantive issues with this incumbent candidate? >> absolutely in terms of madison cawthorn's heart as far as house republicans are concerned senate republicans are concerned your heart used and belong to kevin mccarthy and mitch mcconnell it, was simply not enough.
it's interesting that trump said give him a second chance and helphim he wanted them which is something you're not allowed to do even if you have trump's back. >> that's right, you're trying to distinction that i think is important, he yoked himself to trump, he made himself sort of the smash mouth maga sort of political entertainment. but he upset the top, and made their voices heard today. thanks for joining our, coverage which continues in a moment. stay with us, you're watching msnbc election coverage.