hello everyone, welcome back, i

am while he. -- polls are now close in the seven states that actually had elections today. many results are still too early to call, but here are some of the primary races we are following closely at this hour. and california, we are awaiting a call in the mayoral race in los angeles, congresswoman karen bass running against rick caruso. a lifetime of businessman. turned democrat, a special recall election in san francisco lost his job as additional guitar any of that. city in south dakota nbc news projects that accompany republican governor christine all has one parent mary for governor. over and iowa -- democratic michael franken excuse me there, difference crane that from what we are seeing, defeated former congresswoman abby finkenauer.

frank you will now look to updating and convince senator chuck grassley, come november. and in montana, ryan thank, you donald trump secretary of the interior, is leaning in his campaign for congress in close race though that we are watching. steve kornacki is at the big board for us to break it all, down steve what do you got? >> yeah it's a waiting game in los angeles, we are gonna be showing you these numbers for a while here, recovery so, leading congresswoman karen bass here. certainly seems like these two are headed toward a bun of if nobody gets 50% tonight. the top two finishers face off in november. settle things in. what we are waiting on is, we want to see the votes that were cast today by people in person. there is a lot of them, election day vote. we haven't seen many of them counted yet. we just want to make sure there is not a huge disparity where the election day vote swung one way, totally different than what you are looking at right now, which is basically the mail-in votes. that's basically what has been counted up so far. so we want to make sure there is no huge disparity there.

if not, you are looking at a caruso and bass runoff, to be settled in november. obviously, it'll be interesting to see how these final numbers land here. there is one end up going into that runoff, with an apparent advantage over the other. that will be one factor there. but this is an outstanding piece of business to be settled. here the l.a. mayor's race. you mentioned the recall, taxable dean, more than 20 points, in san francisco, there is also a number of competitive congressional races. they two congressional races differently california. democrats, republicans, it doesn't matter, they are all on one primary ballots. the top two finishers in every district run against each other in november. let me show you where there's a little bit of drama, and a little bit of suspects. here in the central valley of california, the 22nd district, the incumbent republican, david ballad ayo. you see that he is in the number two spot right now. that gives them a ticket to the general election. he will face a democrat, rudy solace, projecting going to

make it to the general election. but the drama is this. david valadao has alienated a lot of republicans because he voted for the impeachment of donald trump. following january six. take a look here, there are actually three republicans, on the ballot, in this open primary. we have seen the mail-in votes get counted so far in this district. what we are waiting on is that election day vote. that election day votes in republican primaries around the country, has tended to favor the more trump friendly candidates. so wall david valadao is running in second place right now, about nine points ahead of christmas near republican challenger. we want to see with that same day but looks like. does bautista running a big numbers and threatening to actually pass david valadao for second place? if that were to happen, if matteo were to leap fronts up david valadao and validate all would be out of a job tonight. wouldn't even make general election.

we're keeping an eye on. that couple congressional races that we are telling you about here. one here in the 40th district here. now you are getting down to orange county. this is young kim, freshman republican congresswoman. one of the first korean american woman elected to congress, national republicans badly want to keep their. her challenge here, again, you've got a democrat, mahmoud, he's gonna advance the general election. can i not running in second. she is double digits ahead of bernie's republican challenger. but that is greg rats. who is trying to get her, right trying to a lime self to the pro trump right. against young came here. we have not yet projected that kim will advance to the general election. you can see that she is leading rat right now. we do want to see some of that. so that is not a big shift. their national americans want cam to hold on to second place. here and advance. another congressional primary, tell you about. it's in a different state. it's in montana. the new first district of montana. and i actually want to show you

the republican primary here. remember, montana because it's growing population, gained a congressional district, here it is, the new first district. ryan's inky, familiar name, interior secretary under donald trump. he is in a fight right now. and all of. skis and he is leading by two. you have seen dinky expand slightly as more voters he, has an ethical banners as days an interior wasilewski is trying to exploit that in his race a list of ski and then there was also and continues to be i should say, some drama in mississippi. this is the third congressional district of mississippi, here is the incumbent congressman republican, michael guest, you hear that he is running in second place right now. his challenger michael cassidy, release them by about a points, about 85% of the vote is counted up here. now mississippi is a runoff state. if nobody in this race gets the 50%, they go to a runoff on june 28th. why is guest in trouble tonight?

the biggest reason, he voted for the creation of that bipartisan january six commission. that is become an issue in this campaign. you can see that he is running from behind by. now realistically, if you are gassed, that's an area right now, if you see what's left in this district, you keep cassidy under 50, and he try to go to a runoff, and you try to win it there. but guess is certainly in trouble. not as much trouble i should say, potentially, as steven palazzo. another incumbent republican congressman. he has been in congress for 12 years. all sorts of ethical controversy around palazzo, around his use of office staff. office funds. he is going to a runoff, he is only getting in he is in first place, he's uncommon only getting 31 and a half percent of the vote. so he is going to face a runoff, we see second place right now, mike easel. he is the sheriff -- in county mississippi. a troubling place for an incumbent to be heading into a runoff. there is not uncommon to complete into some trouble there. again aim in, that headline out of california, in montana here,

the headline out of california is that recall of chess abu dine. that is complete what we are waiting on, some congressional districts to finalize some. november matchups. as we said, we continue to check the mayoral boats and los angeles that has not changed since the start of the segment when i first showed you these numbers. we want to see some of the votes, that were cast today, just make sure there is not a huge difference there, that will change these numbers dramatically. if there is not, then you are looking at it right caruso, versus karen bass. that will be your one-on-one matchup for mayor of the country second largest city. to be saddled in november. >> so let me ask you about that real quick, given the way that this is set up as an open primary. looking ahead at november, if those positions they as they, are what is the race going to come down to four, in terms of the numbers? in terms of the remaining votes? between karen bass and caruso. former republican turned democrat to run at this point in the race. but come november, are we expecting a larger turnout than what we traditionally see right

now? and that could be a potential factor? >> yeah it's interesting, because it's officially a nonpartisan election. but obviously caruso has a pass as a republican, as an independent. i think only this january registered as a democrat, certainly the bass campaign, other opponents and critics of caruso, have really tried to play it up. given how democratic los angeles is. certainly, if he were to come out of tonight in first place, that will be by itself a significant the chief meant. again just giving the political tilt of the city. what's bass, if it is bass who opposes him in november would hope for, is that there is a stronger, general election midterm election turnout for democratic voters. that could potentially carry her. the problem i think she may face as if he's counting on, that look at the top of the ballots in california. governor's race doesn't look that competitive, the senate race doesn't look like you have any races, state wide in california, that are going to draw extra large turnout, in

los angeles or anywhere else. the races don't look that compelling. so it's really gonna be up to bat to make the case against caruso. it's interesting, we talk about the recall of tesla boudin. in san francisco, the emphasis on crime, the emphasis on quality of, life public safety. those are all issues that caruso, spent a fortune on television advertising. those are all issues he stress here, in los angeles, trying to defy the baggage that would come with a label of former republican. worth noting, it's not that long ago, you go back to the 1990s, there was a 63 year old, multimillionaire republican who ran on the issues of crime, homelessness, and quality of life in los angeles. and to get himself elected there. that was 1993. his name was which had written. he's ended up serving two terms. caruso trying to follow that same model. couple decades later. >> all right we will see if it happen. steve kornacki, thank you very much. we're gonna check back with you a little bit later on in the program.

with the first public hearing of the january six committee on thursday, will democrats try to capitalize on that issue, with voters, in a piece looking at that exact issue. the new york times says, it is an uphill battle at a time when polls show that voters attention is focused elsewhere, including on inflation, rising coronavirus cases, and record high gas prices. but democrats argue the hearings will give them a platform for making a broader case about why they deserve to stay in power. we are joined now by our expert panel. melanie mason, natural political correspondent for the los angeles times. christina bell and tony, she covered politics for years at the l.a. times as well. she is not professor of journalism in the director of the media center of university of california in adamsburg. david jolly, former republican congress man from florida. let the republican party 2018. he now is the national chairman of the serve america movement. and jonathan alter, communists, for the daily. thank you for having us.

>> maloney let your start with, you get your read on what we are seeing play out tonight and california between the reporting that you have at the l.a. times, and what steve kornacki was just breaking down for us at the big board here. >> absolutely, i think first of, all steve is right. the big headline so far is what we have seen out of san francisco. with a da recall race. i don't think any of us expected that race to be called so quickly. so i think a lot of the commentary that is going to be coming in the next couple days is what kind of message in san francisco trying to show? san francisco of course has always had sort of a, less and less year, divide in the city. so it's not of the city is necessarily turning towards republicans. but i do think that there is a fair question about what the future of democrats will be, when it comes to this question about criminal justice. >> christina, your thoughts as well, on california this evening. >> anything surprising? >> well, one thing i want to go back to something, steve kornacki was talking about, with david balladeer. in the central valley, that race is fascinating because

david valadao is one of the, the only congressional republican who voted to impeach donald trump. who trump has not endorsed and challenger. so imagine if trump had gotten involved in that race. how those numbers might have looked a little bit different. assembly member, solace, who is leading in that race in that moment. has run and that same exact area. many many times. in the same. turf democrats are starting to see some signs of hope when they are facing a really difficult year. this november. so that is one of the things that stands out. also to, make don't forget, this is the first time that l.a. mayor's race has shifted to an even year. in the same year that we have statewide races. and congressional midterm elections, or presidential elections in the future. that is going to make a big difference when it comes to turnout this november. and this mare base is really gonna set the direction for what the second largest city of america is going to look like. >> yeah that's exactly what i was asking steve about that. in terms of the turnout come november. whether that could be a factor between caruso and karen bass if those numbers hold for the

rest of this morning. christina, let me share to the question that i was framing this conversation around. that is january the 6th, and this hearing taken place. do you think that this is something that could resonate with some independent voters? do you still think that people as they go into the polls, this november, will still be thinking about what transpired two years ago in the attempt to overthrow our democracy? who is responsible for that? >> but i wonder when i think about those question is, if it will influence anyone? are people out there with undecided opinions on what happened on january 6th? the people that i've talked to, both in my reporting, but also just in life, really feel pretty hardened by this. particularly, the people aren't tuning in to watch for democrats would be extremely persuasive arguments using dramatic footage and, showing some never before seen imagery of that awful day. is that going to change any minds?

and influence people? the number one thing everyone says that they are concerned about is, can they afford groceries, how much they are paying at the pump. those are realities that democrats are really facing an uphill battle on. this year i don't know if january six is going to change that sentiment. it also could further inflame any road, and divide people, on an issue that really everybody should be on the same page about. they shouldn't have happened at the u.s. capitol. >> david, let me get your thoughts on this. and there is two layers to it. for me at least. personally speaking. on one, this was a threat to our democracy, and i think two years into it people are hardened and their positions. you either see it away, or you are a republican who thinks that this was just another day in the office, for members of congress, or it was a protest. you have trump friendly media like fox news, they are not even gonna be airing any of the january six hearings. so do you think that any of what comes out of this, will actually reach republican voters, or is it even worth

trying to reach out? i know the historical significance of getting the narrative out on this and understanding the details. because we are still learning about every minute of what happened on that day. and the bigger conspiracy behind. it are any of these republicans persuadable? >> probably not. but i think it ends up on what comes out. all those hearings. and i would suggest in terms of political influence, i don't think it will have any impact on 2022. it may on 20 -- further isolates donald trump. and that is culpability on donald trump's feet. but look, i think we will learn a lot about the actual coordination between the trump political universe, the organizers of the event. trump's knowledge of the livelihood of violence, and did he do anything to actually inflame it? or to forestall it? i think those answers will be very telling. but i also think that very, very importantly, the democrats should not try to --

i think the powers in just letting the information come out, letting the story be told, because if you learn the lessons that the benghazi hearings. if the party tries to actually politicize something in this case, january, six that is a very grave matter where our democracy hung in the balance. you might be trying to be two things at the same time. and it might actually get in the way of truly telling the story, letting the american people realize the gravity of what's hung in the ballots on january six. let them realize the people realize, that there was a singular actor and donald trump, that was responsible for this. and should he arrive on the scene again, as a nominee for the republican party, then a political judgment can be made in 2024 by the american people. >> jonathan, alter speaking of donald trump, what about his influence on the republican primaries and the general election come november. how do you see the january six

hearings impacting voters on that singular issue? because it seems from most of the republican races that i have been tracking in the primary so far, nobody is out here running as a never trumper. they are either running as a trump idealogue, or they are running as a trump camouflage. meaning they support trump-ism, they support his ideology, if they are not coming out completely and accepting his fall on personal endorsement. >> well a man, i think the first thing to do is focus on whether david used in a different context, few moments ago. that word is hung. we shouldn't be numb, we shouldn't be just taking it for granted, that a president of the united states, was willing to see his vice president hung. this is what the reporting is indicating us. we are gonna hear this. that when he was alerted that they had a noose out on the capitol grounds, this is basic

response was that maybe they should hang mike pence. that's how angry he was at his own vice president. so this is a big deal in the history of our country. and the way that it plays out, politically, it's hard to say. but we shouldn't underestimate it's more cosmic importance. i think that we need to kind of separate the political question, into two buckets. so, is this going to change trump voters? of course not. might it affect some independent voters? very possibly. if they tell a good story, it could change the climate among a very large number of independent voters. we just don't know about that yet. but the most important fact is on democratic voters. because right now, there is a enthusiasm gap. it's actually narrowed a bit in recent weeks. but it favors the republicans

right now. if democrats get mad about this. and say you know what's? i'm gonna go out and ring doorbells. so that these big lie republicans don't get the keys to the -- so that we don't have these people who want to impeach joe biden, running our congress. they might be able to motivate democrats to work harder in november. which would be very important. >> it's a very valid point as, well it may not change hearts and minds, but it certainly can increase the voter turnout. melanie mason, thank you so much for joining, us the rest of our panel plea stick around, later in the hour we are gonna continue our conversation. up next, the january six committee will hold as i mentioned, its first public hearing, thursday night. barbara mcquade, lippman will discuss what takes -- that is coming up next. >> >>

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interviews and depositions for 140,000 documents, january six select committee has a mountain of evidence to present to the american people. those are not my words, that is what congress jamie raskin, a member of the january six committee told the washington post. and one area we can expect the committee to explore during the public hearings is the fake electors plot that trump and his allies try to implement. the washington post is reporting today that back in december 2020, with the january six writes just weeks away. a member of the trump campaign

wouldn't seem out of the fake trump electors, in georgia, urging them not to say a word about the plot to anyone. the post reports, i must ask for your complete discretion in this process, right robert centers, the campaign's election operations director for georgia, the day before the 16 republicans gathered at the georgia capital to scientific gets the clearing themselves duly-elect id. your duties are imperative to ensure the end result, a win and a georgia for president trump, but will be hampered unless we have complete secrecy and discretion. please, at no point, should you mention anything to do with president electors or speak to the media, centers continued in bold. now this reporting begs the question, if trump and his allies weren't doing anything wrong, why shouldn't they say anything about it. why the secrecy? with us again, barbara mcquade, former u.s. attorney for

eastern district, for the eastern district of michigan, and now professor at the university michigan law school, coast of the podcast sisters in law, -- harry lippman, former prosecutor deputy assistant journey -- under president clinton. he is now legal affairs columnist for the l.a. times. barbara, i would like to start with you, let's dive into this fake electors plots. that trump and his allies tried to implement, it seems to have been one of the major schemes they came up with, what did you think it says that the trump campaign was warning georgia republicans not to talk about the block. it seemed that they were really focused on the state of georgia when you consider this pot, as well as the presidents infamous phone call to the georgia secretary of state to try to find him or boats. >> yeah, while you really hit on one of the things that will catch a prosecutor's ear. that is what is referred to as evidence of consciousness of guilt. that idea that when you are

trying to be secretive about something, to cover something up, suggest that you have knowledge that there is something wrong about it. that could cause you problems if it were to be exposed. i think one defense that the sum of electors signed these alternate slates of electors, could, raise it is that, they signed these in good faith, on the chance that there was some irregularity in the elections. ultimately, donald trump was declared the winner, it would be important to have the slate on record to to beat the deadline so they went ahead and sign the. but when you have language like this, about you need to sign, this don't tell anybody, you can't talk to anyone about, it don't tell the media about. it that makes it sound much more nefarious. we know from other reporting that this was part of the big plot that john eastman proposed, that mike pence would throw out the electors from states that were the swing states. where they said that there was fraud. and that they would substitute season. i think it provides perhaps a lead to connect this level up

the alternate slates with somebody higher up who is actually giving those marginal or orders. >> harry, and same into the, plus -- the trump staffer who i was sitting there, in that email. he says, i was advised by attorneys that this was necessary in order to preserve the pending legal challenge. is that a plausible argument? >> good luck to him. he is also run away from it in substance, a man, he says i now see it differently. look, as barb, says this is for a prosecutor, solid gold. this is some attempt to say we are just, this was just two faces, they didn't know, sign here. but this puts the lie to it. so this would be one of the sort, of five or ten documents that you would showcase to a jury, repeatedly. if you are making the case. more generally, what is happening here, we moved everything back from the january six melee, and perhaps if you look at the second

impeachment, enough to show that trump wrapped up the crowd to his actually having pushed the crowd, and organize the crowd, or him, got close to it, funded the crowd, advertised the crowd, and not just january six itself. but going back all the way to shortly after the election, less than two weeks after the election, the series of plots including the all -- electors have come to the surface. i think that's what raskin means when he's talking about mountains of evidence, and pointing it at trump as someone who didn't just incite, but potentially, and people around him, potentially, actually controlled, instigated, an illegal word, conspired. >> harry lippman, barbara mcquade, thank you for the both of you for staying up late, getting up early for us. and helping us make sense of what will certainly be a dramatic hearing as it gets underway this thursday. greatly appreciate it to the both of you. >> we are gonna go back to

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like here. does it change this margin before the meeting lead anyway? is at a narrower kosik up nearly 50%, highly highly unlikely. but we do want to see with the same day but looks like. we want to see if one of these two candidates emerges with a clear advantage, heading into that runoff, again, talk to here, barring anybody getting 15% tonight. the top two who will decide, be the next marilyn. we told you in california, the biggest story of the night that is not complete, that recall of chess a boutique also on the congressional side we've been keeping an eye on, valadao and the -- central valley to impeach donald trump, the top to advance the general election. democrat a state legislator rudy salas is going to the general election, valadao it's kind of holding his breath right now. trying to hold on to this lead over chris mattis, close republican challenger. the good thing for david valadao is that we are

looking at the same day votes starting to come in right now. there just doesn't seem to be a lot of it. bautista is doing fairly well with the same day vote, we just might not have enough of it to catch valadao here if valadao is able to finish in second. get to the general election against rudy salas this becomes a fascinating race. because look at. this this becomes a very this is a majority hispanic district voted to joe biden in 2020. david mullah dale got -- in 2018 what it years earlier. lost at 18, won a back in 2020, as i said, voted to impeach trump, on january six 2021. try to unify our republican party this has been every vote that he can have if he advances to the general election. against rudy salas this. is one of those bases that democrats think what could be a tough year for them, this is a seat that they badly like to pick up. show you a couple of the other primaries that we are waiting on here. we've been mentioning, young kim, republican freshman

congresswoman, national republicans, really try to get her through to the general election. she is running in second place right now. she if she stays in second place, she will face off the move. democrat and general election. the good thing if you are can, if you do hold on second place here. yes you are ten points behind mahmoud, but again is a split republican, three republicans on this ballot. only one democrat. if kim can consolidate she could be in a good position in november, potentially, a couple of this to dry attention to. we haven't mentioned this one tonight. one of the only congressional discuss in the country, california's 45th floor audi asian american district and again this is a freshman republican congresswoman, michelle steal here. she was actually going to finish second. jake chan, the democrats going to finish first here. looks like he's gonna finish first i should say. these will to advance into a runoff in november. when things will be decided. again, still, with the third republican in the race, you add those two republicans together, they are over 50%.

one of those districts that if he voted for joe biden, the margin was six points, democrats would love to take the seat, but it still gets to the general election, she may walk into some advantages to others and areas to flak for you. katie porter, democrat has gained a lot of prominence in recent years. thrown into a new district pretty much by redistricting. a lot of this is new to her for her. you see she's running a 56%. everyone else in this race is a republican. scott bob, the former minority leader. gonna be her opponents but right now she is running over 50% here. and one other that will be competitive this fall is mike love it, 49th district. a democrat with a whole bunch of republicans trying to get in that number. two brian murray of, rain against them in 2020. isn't that second spot 11 over 50% right now these are all districts. amen, this november, we are gonna be spending a lot of time on because they will have a lot

to do with which party controls the house, and by how many seats. >> steve, really appreciate it breaking it down for us. we're gonna try to check back for you before the top of the hour. don't go anywhere. one issue that we are gonna keep an eye on is election integrity. donald trump and republicans loyal to him continue to spread baseless lies, that the 2020 election was stolen. election integrity has now become a critical issue. it is not on the minds or it is perhaps on some, of the voters as they cast their ballots in advance of the november election. in a new abc poll released earlier this year, 20% of americans said that they were very confident and the integrity of our elections. 39% of them said that they were somewhat confident. we are back with our panel, christina bell and tony, david jolly, jonathan alter, jonathan allen, nbc news national political politics reporter joins the public conversation as well. christine ominous art with, you out of donald trump's lies about the safety of our elections, impacted voters, in

the primary so far? >> i haven't seen a huge effect, at least in california. when i'm looking a little bit more ahead towards is the general election and who signed up, to take part in that really critical part of democracy, administering the ballots. getting the precincts open. counting the ballots. all of those really public servants who are volunteering their time or even elected officials who are working in their jobs to make sure that votes are properly counted. have been intimidated, threatened, a lot of them are kind of asking themselves, is it worth it? based on what we are seeing. we know that there are all kinds of efforts to challenge every single vote where you are not winning. that we are gonna see this precinct by precinct across the country. where election day is not necessarily gonna be the last straw. we're gonna see a lot of this disciples in courts. and that's a big warning sign, for both parties, just to be able to restore faith and that

democracy about-ing. think about california, which we have been talking about these results. we do not have election day in california. it's election months. it's one of the easiest states to vote. you can register the same day. he could drop a ballot off at any boat center. let's say you work in one, county you live in another. so many opportunities for you to have your voice heard and your vote counted. and it works just fine. the mail-in ballots, yes they count them first, and then it takes forever to count california votes, if there is 20 million people plus. it really does actually work. hair but that didn't stop donald trump in 2016, from claiming that he should have won california. that those election fraud than. and i anticipate that you are gonna hear this a lot more in the coming months. >> david, if you look ahead, there are over 20 candidates running for secretary of state, that our election deniers. these are people that are gonna play critical roles in the actual conduct of our election, just the mechanisms of it come

november, and perhaps in 2024. the scarier thought, if donald trump decides to run with these 20 secretaries of states, perhaps willing to leave in the big lie, willing to push through. you know an election that he does not win. what strategy should their opponents use against election lies and people running to -- who believe in that lie? >> well a, man i think -- the big lie has really seeped into republican orthodoxy. but secondly, it reflects a republican strategy, a broader republican strategy that now the effort is being made to prevent the traditional certification of elections. if they can throw the election turnout or the election results into some type of chaos, they can move them into the hands of now partisan, administrators. that is where the real threats to democracy lies. that is the legacy of donald trump's republican -- i think you know, democrats need to translate that to what

does that mean? what is the loss of freedom? what is it around the area -- of immigration. is it around the area of gun violence? what is that hangs and the ballots if republicans -- and taking away democracy from the voters. because ultimately, republicans, when they grab power, will use that power to effectuate policy -- the majority of americans are today. >> jonathan, alter, how do democrats put democracy on the ballot this november? because the fear is that if you get the secretaries and other state positions, in which they control the levers of power that oversee our elections, we may not have another democracy, if they would've gotten their way in 2020. it may play out again in 2024. that's absolutely right. that's not alarmist. we have one of our political parties that basically believes,

heads we win, tails you lose. if the democrats managed to win elections, they will just claim that they're stolen and try to have them decided by state legislatures or you use their election officials to rig the election. so, the challenge for the democrats is very stark. they have to stop looking at races for local election boards, four secretaries of state as boring, an sexy content. right now, they still are. they donor base doesn't get it. they are giving money to these shiny object races, instead of giving money to places like -- run for something. or they underfunded terrific organizations, to try to support candidates for secretaries of state and local election boards. and having trouble raising

money. because democrats still don't get it, that this is where the rubber meets the road. they want to save democracy, they have to invest in these races that relate to the election machinery. >> john allen, your thoughts on whether or not former president trump is going to run on 2024? what could he possibly be waiting for to see whether or not he makes that decision? >> oh reported on this earlier this week, it was divided amongst trump's advisers as to whether he should wait until after the midterms. the traditional period for announcing for president. and perhaps do so as early as this summer. people i talked to described him as bored and frustrated, not really liking playing kingmaker so much as liking being a candidate. and the possibility -- in fact, one adviser told me he thought he should go after the midterms, saying he's likely to make an announcement sooner than later. the final decision hasn't been

made so it's hard to announce that he's running. if he makes that decision -- all sign seem to point to him running. >> i want to thank all of our panelists for joining this evening. christina bell and tony, jonathan alter, and jonathan allen and david jolly. when we come back, one last update on the primary election results from steve kornacki at the big board. that's next. 's next. (man) [whispering] what's going on? (burke) it's a farmers policy perk. get farmers and you could save money by doing nothing. just be claim-free on your home insurance for three years. (man) that's really something. (burke) get a whole lot of something with farmers policy perks. (dad) bravo! (mom) that's our son! (burke) we should. ♪ we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum ♪ at adp, we use data-driven insights to design hr solutions to help you engage and retain top performers today, so you can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another, yeah, yeah ♪

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the developments this evening at the big board, with steve kornacki. steve, [inaudible] it down for us. >> i think i have these numbers burned into my retina at this point. i've been staring at the same ones for an hour and a half here. again, you are looking at the results we have so far, for the race for mayor of los angeles, if no one gets to 50% tonight, then the top to go to the general election in november. they settle things then. basically, this is the vote by mail total, a lot of these ballots were sent in two weeks ago a couple days ago. we just want to make sure of what we have been waiting on, and waiting and waiting and waiting. our to see some of the results from votes that were cast by people in person at polling locations today. just to make sure there is not some huge disparity that would suddenly put one of these candidates close to 50%. short of that, it will be rick caruso and karen bass in that general election for mayor of los angeles, to be settled in november. it certainly looks like it's headed in that direction. in california, the headline of

the night, though, comes out of that recall election in san francisco, the district attorney chesa boudin has been recalled. he's been recalled by a lopsided margin. he will leave office. his successor will be appointed by the mayor of san francisco. that's the democrat, london breed. she will make that pick. what are we waiting on in terms of drama in addition to that house race? in addition to the mayor's race in los angeles? a couple of congressional races. here is the question. david valadao, republican incumbent who voted to impeach donald trump last year, will he hold on to second place in this 22nd district in california? the central valley. if valadao can hold on to second place, it would set up a general election matchup between him and state legislature rudy salas. if not, then valadao would be done. he would be out of office after this election. he would not make it to the general election if one of these republicans, who has been campaigning against his vote there on impeaching trump, could catch him. but again, not a ton of votes. not a ton of votes cast.

maybe not a ton of votes left in this district. but still, valadao is going to wrap up second place there to get to the general election. that would be a tough general election for him to. also, national republicans -- piece of business badly. [inaudible] want young kim to advance to the general election. she would face mahmoud, if she advance to the general election. we've not yet officially declared her in second place. there is still a bit of a question mark here. but she leads greg rafts, who is trying to get to the pro trump right of young kim here. republicans have put a ton of mind her money behind her. they think that gives her a chance of hanging onto the seat. other drama still outstanding. we have to go up to montana, at the newly created first district of montana. remember, the game to see because of redistricting. the former interior secretary, runs into, under donald trump, is trying to stage a comeback in his district, and it's an unexpectedly close race for ryan's inky. and how old is chesky, met with

and a half point of zinc. he ect margin is 855 votes and there are some scandals involving these inky of when he were was interior secretary. that has been fought for some of his opponents. this is been closer than some expected. we will see where this one lands. again, the -- wow i just made that map very small there. when i was trying to do is take you to this. one more upstanding piece of business in mississippi. the third congressional district, republican member of congress -- wrong but in their -- republican member of congress michael guess, running in second place here. we are still waiting on final votes to come in. but he's running on in second place. mississippi is a runoff. even if he if inches in second, his opponent not breaking 50, would trigger a runoff. a runoff is a dangerous place to be. why is guest in trouble? he is the only republican from mississippi who voted for the creation of a bipartisan

january 6th commission. that's become an issue in this campaign. and again, right now, in the most likely outcome here, it's that guest and cassidy -- who has made an issue out of that -- and up in a runoff on june 28th and settle things. there's one other republican incumbent in grave danger. stephen [inaudible] he's going to finish first in the district. but a lot of scandals are around him. he's headed to the runoff. that's a bad number to be headed into a runoff, infighting kind of incumbent. >> all right, my man, steve kornacki, thank you for breaking it down for us. and thank you for watching this extended coverage of election night in america. i am ayman mohyeldin in new york, have a good night. ve a good night. gives us the dual action effect that really takes care of both our teeth sensitivity as well as our gum issues. there's no question it's something that i would recommend. to be clear, we have never been accused of being flashy, sexy or lit. may i? we're definitely not lit. i mean seriously, we named ourselves booking.com

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