tv [untitled] October 18, 2012 8:30am-9:00am EDT
darty dot com. iran's disputed nuclear program has managed to dominate headlines for years and today as u.s. officials continue debating over a potential strike against tehran a newly released court weighs the advantages and consequences of taking military action joining me now to talk more about this topic is dr alston long the associate professor of international public affairs at columbia university he's also the co-author of a new report titled weighing the benefits and costs of military action against iran thank you very much for joining me today thanks very much it's a pleasure to be here dr long a bipartisan group of national security experts are the authors and signatories of this extensive report according to your findings is iran's nuclear program currently a threat to the us president it's not
a threat to united states iran's nuclear program is under international atomic energy agency action. work that they had previously done according to the u.s. intelligence community on nuclear weapons it's been suspended so at present iran's nuclear program is not a major threat to united states the concern is that it could very rapidly become one how rapidly in less than a year according to some estimates and other estimates more than a year a lot depends on whether you're talking about the production of fissile material the highly enriched uranium for a bomb or an actual deliverable weapon deliverable weapon would take longer production of fissile material could you know within a few few months produce enough or for a bomb well within a few months both in a few weeks americans will be heading to the polls to vote for a new u.s. president or keep the current one in the white house many believe that israel has.
this time as a window of opportunity to strike iran dragging the u.s. into a war is there still a threat that it would do so in the main remaining weeks i think the concern about a possible israeli strike was higher a few weeks ago the israelis are now dissolving. their parliament and calling for new elections on january twenty second so this i think changes a lot of the previous calculation of people that thought the israeli government might act before the us elections i think now tend to believe wait until at least after us elections if not actually after the new israeli elections now opinions vary but do you think iran has an intention to acquire a nuclear bomb i mean this is literally the sixty four thousand dollar question you know there's a pretty good read on what iran's capabilities in terms of uranium enrichment are the big question which i don't think anyone can give a highly confident answer to is does iran want what people refer to as a threshold capability in other words its ability to produce
a nuclear weapon quickly or do they want an actual deployed weapon according to u.s. intelligence community and i think most other observers iran just hasn't made that decision in part because they don't need to they want to get to that threshold capability before they make any decisions about whether to go to go farther than that threshold because there's no point making that decision early in fact it might be detected by western intelligence and so you could tip your hand before you get to that threshold so i think that decision has been made you don't seem to be putting the threat level of iran's nuclear program as high as some u.s. officials the republican candidates for example mitt romney and his vice presidential candidate paul ryan have been in past weeks essentially saying that iran is a major grave threat are they exaggerating at all with their rhetoric i don't think there's a tremendous amount of exaggeration that iran is. threat generally i mean you know
the united states and iran have had a pretty hostile relationship for three decades actually more than three decades now they have you know had problematic relations in the gulf they've had conflict via proxies in iraq so i think it's not wrong to say iran is a threat the question is whether rodd's nuclear program is a real threat to the united states at the present and it isn't at the present but the concern is as i said it could very quickly become a threat so let's go back to your report according to the findings and extended u.s. military strike on iran's nuclear facilities whether alone or in concert with israel could set back iran's nuclear program for four years but it still would not guarantee that iran would not eventual acquire a nuclear bomb why is that it's because the technology iran already has some pieces and parts they need to acquire from overseas but unless you can guarantee that you
can kill off everyone in iran that has knowledge of these programs and their ability to produce these basic components such as aluminum rotors you can't guarantee that that the program can never be restarted so you can destroy what they have now but their ability to rebuild that even if you can make it take a very long time to rebuild that's what can't be destroyed what kind of long term military commitment with the u.s. have to make to ensure that iran would never be able to build a nuclear bomb i mean it would be similar to what happened with iraq the only way to ensure a country does not acquire a nuclear weapon is to is to forcibly change the regime and go in on the ground occupy yes that's the that's the only way to one hundred percent be sure that the current iranian regime never acquires a nuclear weapon so we're talking about a ten year war. what they. potentially could be iran is a larger country than both iraq and afghanistan combined so if you're talking about a war that would certainly be on that scale where there would be ten times harder not quite as hard who knows but it would be a very substantial military commitment should the u.s.
be concerned about iran's unconventional war capabilities i think the united states is definitely be concerned about iran's unconventional war capabilities by its nature it's harder to sort of define what unconventional war capabilities are and you can count airplanes you can count missiles unconventional it's a little harder to judge but iran has a robust capability for unconventional war they have special operations forces they have and services they have a variety of capabilities to conduct attacks without you know not in this sort of typical military way at the end of the day is this really just a problem for israel iran possible determination of acquiring nuclear weapons or is this a problem for the u.s. as well i think it's a problem for the entire world i mean certainly the you know the entire world has has asked iran to clarify its intentions and has taken steps i think it's a much bigger problem for israel than the united states if for no other reason than proximity in the size you know israel is
a country of you know about the you know in terms of population the size of new york city and geographically it's quite small it's quite close so i think it's a much bigger problem for israel that it is for the united states but that doesn't make it not a problem for the united states and the rest of the world how much would a war with iran cost the u.s. economy it's very difficult to tell but you know our estimates that even a modest war would would hurt the u.s. economy in part because it would drive up oil prices even a modest in terms of duration spike in oil prices you know the u.s. recovery right now is quite fragile the world recovery is sort of stalled in places . making modest recovery in others so a big spike in oil prices even if it was only for a few weeks would certainly. damage the u.s. economy if it were a longer extended commitment and big disruption in oil then it would be much more also to the global economy to the global economy and then there's the actual dollar figure to conduct military operations right in flying planes dropping bombs these things are are not incredibly expensive but neither are they cheap so it would it
would there would be a it would be a substantial costly thing so i want to ask you a question that politicians always reject to answer does israel have nuclear weapons capacity it's something that the israelis have been opaque on by design throughout their their history i think most outside observers would say that the israelis do have a nuclear weapons capacity even if it's one that's never really been deployed or tested and as you mentioned benjamin netanyahu has dissolved the parliament in israel with new elections expected as in january february twenty second and what the how much do you think that will play into the israel running conflict i think i think this coming israeli elections will hinge heavily on on what to do about iran the netanyahu government will have some decisions to make they could be they could be very bold and take action as a caretaker government i think most observers don't think they will and in fact a lot of the campaign will be about what to do about the iranian nuclear program.
so i think that's i think it would be a huge issue in determining the future of israeli iranian relations so if israel has a stockpile of nuclear weapons as many have reported and iran has not even if you're on board to build one wouldn't there be somewhat of a deterrence policy in place why would israel consider still striking iran the belief is you know if both sides have nuclear weapons no no no one side is going to be foolish enough to use them knowing they're going to face retaliation by the other side of the u.s. soviet union the idea of mutually assured destruction i think the israelis are deeply uncomfortable with this because it doesn't take. hundreds of nuclear weapons to functionally destroy israel as i said israel's a very small country a handful of nuclear weapons maybe even only one nuclear weapon some people refer to israel as a one bomb country could do the same damage it would require hundreds of nuclear weapons to do to a much larger country so i think their concern is why take any risk that maybe the
current leadership in iran is completely rational but maybe a future one won't be why take any risk that there could be these kind of miscalculations in a confrontation so say there's a then israeli iranian equivalent of a cuban missile crisis say over hezbollah or syria and instead of ending in a in a sort of tense standoff that resolved peacefully as in the cuban missile crisis this one actually results in the exchange of nuclear weapons think the israeli attitude is you know we have maintained all along we will not be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons into the region we don't want anyone else to do so either because why take the risk you know when u.s. president barack obama was addressing the u.n. general assembly and he was speaking how i think iran he said time for negotiations is not unlimited what do you think he meant by that i mean it's you think that there is some kind of deadline a date that. i don't think that there is an exact date but i do think that patience
for negotiations particularly after the last round over the summer is sort of wearing thin the iranians put forward a proposal allegedly some of the iranians deny it some don't it's kind of tough to tell sometimes what the iranians are actually saying but the proposal would have called for the lifting of most sanctions in exchange for suspension of many of the more worrisome activities of the iranian nuclear program and the president said look we you know this isn't this isn't serious we're not going to remove everything that gives us leverage in exchange for these minor concessions so i think the feeling is look we will give diplomacy all the time in the world if it's actually working but if it's just a way for the iranians to stall and by the way over the summer iran greatly increase the rate a. putting centrifuges into one of its enrichment plants so i think that's the feeling it's not that there's a specific date but if it looks like all the iranians are doing is using negotiations as a way to sort of buy time think that's when the president will say look we've given diplomacy you know all the time in the world it hasn't worked your report indicated
that a u.s. military strike against iran would motivate the country to build a bomb if that is the case doesn't this threatening rhetoric coming from u.s. and israeli officials also cause damage i think the idea is to calibrate the threat and maybe the united states hasn't always done the best job but the idea is you know you apply all of these levers of persuasion sanctions the threat of military action to say look this isn't a good path to go down let's find another path but you're absolutely right that if you you know if you're trying to convince somebody to do something or else you're going to carry out a threat you don't want to believe in you're going to carry out the threat anyway right because why would you ever agree to anything if you think you're going to be attacked anyway so it's it can be tricky you're right to calibrate that rhetoric that you know if you do x. we will do y. but if you don't do x. we won't do well dr austin long thank you very much for speaking with r.t. thanks very much as a great pleasure i. you
know how sometimes you see a story and it seems so you think you understand it and then you glimpse something else you hear or see some other part of it and realize everything you thought you knew you don't know i'm trying hard welcome to the big picture. download the official ati application to cellphone choose your language stream quality and enjoy your favorites from matsushita t.v. is not required to watch on t.v. all you need is your mobile device to watch r.t. any time of.
the gold fever. turns thousands into slaves. my father but also months rather involved in the monsoon and since i started working at the moment i stay here to look at it. multinationals. to cash cow to be milked dry and if i think that in this country is gold medal logie as an environmental cost which is unacceptable to local business was labelled illegal and controlled by criminals people in order to protect our lives our families and to work in peace. most book most but we are forced to pay protection to illegal groups what price is colombia going to pay. the people. the modest effect on r.t. . led.
the headlines on r t tear gas and petrol bombs in athens later a show of greek anger over e.u. enforced cuts even as germany says it wants more control of a national budget. as the international envoy to syria warns the conflict could set the whole middle east ablaze clashes break out across the border in lebanon. and in libya the former bastion of late colonel gadhafi under attack again rebels launch an assault on bani walid in the unleavened. in which the unit of time for you well the sports you know we've been talking about all day and if i told you here an oddity of the economic crisis ongoing increase but i believe one
greek football team has found a novel way to raise much needed cash i thought you might bring me up on this story rory yes the sony and oldest profession in the world has been called a pawn but i'll leave it up you're going to have to watch the sport on your lucky because it's coming up right now. thanks for joining us this is indeed sports today plenty ahead for you over the next ten minutes in putting all this. right on track we take a look at c.s.k. moscow's hopes of securing their first russian football championship in half a dozen years. storming start the on heralded part of new zealander michael hendry a humble come as early as claimed the early lead a goal spurs international. find out why greek opinion is divided over. and how much your football team's sponsors. moscow will be
striving to return to the top of the russian premier league this weekend after the international break they sit within a window of leaders john g. honest richard from port fleet reports morale couldn't be higher in the army men's camp. it's been six years and says come last when the russian premier league title however this renewed hope beyond human can finally end this drought to go into sunday's clash rubin just two points off the leaders on g m around couldn't be higher after beating bitter rivals sponsor moscow last time outs but we were very happy about today's game specially because the fact i guess the biggest their win in russia winning the game is always very important for us has has a team in there for supporters to so hopefully we can keep doing good and trying to fight the first places despite a poor start of
a season so this car had been an excellent run winning six games in a row in the league however that run came to hold against nama moscow and to make matters worse the only men had islands a go of sent off after the russian international lashed out at luke will show the twenty two year old was given a five game suspension and ross was elm says it was great to get back to winning ways again spartak yeah now we're back on track again hopefully we can continue like this there was a good win an important win also for the first test series coble hope to have settled back from injury will take on rubin last season's top scorer in the russian premier league hasn't played since the start of a studio a back injury and he's addition to a score to really containing the likes of kosuke uganda who is arguably been the player of the season so far and he got it in fear between opposed could finally see a serious car and a six year wait for russian football's biggest prize richmond awfully dancey moscow
. now the man who blew the whistle and lifted the lid on the latest italian football match fixing scandal has found a new job as a community coach at english premier league club aston villa some only ferrara was approached last november and offered two hundred thousand euro to influence the outcome of an italian cup match he reported the incident to police leading to the arrest of seventeen people the former roma defender was given an award at last year's fee for bond or ceremony but find himself without a club the thirty year old that's the lighted with his new opportunity with the villains. it's not only that but unity for me but for my whole family i have always dreamed of coming here to england i don't hide it because it has the most beautiful football at the moment for me it's a dream to be here are some of you are at the stadium to see the support of us from below makes me very emotional and all them so much been another week to forget for lance armstrong as the fallout from the u.s. anti-doping agency's accusations of drug abuse continue to reverberate the former
cyclist stepping down as the chairman of the live strong cancer charity on the web it's the armstrong form the foundation following his own successful battle with the illness sports manufacturer nyc also a ninety or to sever ties with the athlete saying there's insurmountable evidence he misled the company for a decade betsy andreu whose husband frankie ruled with armstrong in the u.s. postal team says they became victims of a smear campaign after testifying against the forty one. this is something that some. here. seem. to stick. to swimming where the fourth stage of the world cup kicked off here in moscow on wednesday the home fans had something to cheer by to after stunned the slav done it swung gold in the one hundred meter backstroke then it is the highest ranking russian in the competition and was sitting seventh in the standings going into the event the three time world champion missed the london olympics due to
injury and was eager to make an impressive comeback and he did just that the twenty nine year old i pacing is truly is robert hurley by almost a second to finish in first meanwhile world record holder in the four hundred meter freestyle pole biederman proved he still among the best in the sport the twenty six sure german taking an early lead after an electric start never looked back again early in the second afterwards peterman admitted the race was not as easy as it perhaps looked. was not an easy race because so roberts will be the one in stockholm in front of me so i tried a different tactic and it worked well about robots he has a lot of races he did. go to now so i think he's doing a great job. the inaugural perth international golf tournament which is taking place in western australia seem to unheralded players leaving after the opening run and new zealand michael hendry commissar is of spain the man at the summit come as early as starting back to back birdies three times from which this afternoon the
seventy second to seven under hendry made eight birdies to match the kiwi arsonists maliana grillo ended the day just one behind leaders following a six under par sixty six paul casey is alongside fellow in this one hundred johnstone five onder they also seek a share of the two million u.s. dollar prize from. basketball where houston rockets point guard germy lin has dismissed concerns over his knee injury the twenty four year old missed the end of last season with the new york knicks because of the problem but insists he'll be fighting fit when the rockets begin their n.b.a. campaign against detroit on holloway i'm not sure it's just like the fatigue i think early on a little. bit whatever and now it's like you know now i'm feeling very. better every single day. you know we're just building up and i think we may be two weeks or some other month or so so i think you know i'm feeling great right now so i'm.
really good. women are continuing to swell the ranks of formula one twenty nine year old from scotland joining a handful of ladies test driving the speed machines on the biggest motor sports stage of all suzy wolf here pushing the f w thirty three to the limit silverstone the briton joined the williams f one team in april as a development driver after completing practice time with the simulator she was finally able to nab some genuine track time this week rather curtly no women driving i tried in formula one and only five in total in the sport seventy two just . going along the hangar straight the first time pulling through the gears it and the g. force in speed against you it's it's really incredible it's a fantastic car to drive and it was emotional i've spent a long time preparing for this day i've spent a long time dreaming of this day and finally it's here and i think the team did a fantastic job to prepare me for it and he really guided me through. this morning so far and hopefully now we can put some slicks on and try again in the afternoon.
finally one mature football team in greece have come up with a novel way of getting around the country's economic turmoil. to be sponsored by wait for it to local brothels the decision has caused controversy with the legal organizers bombing the logos during not just saying it violates the sporting ideal on this on simple problem their reach supporters the emblems of the villa erotica soulas heists of history appear on the pink shirts the team until their squad as well seek to find new ways to finance themselves and make drastic government cuts some say the moral outrage is simply a case of a popular saying. they advertise sports betting firms various lottery and sports betting games what are these and the gambling and these brothers sponsors you brothers and dad and it's a false sense of outrage hypocrisy. to be true to run that one and that is all your
sports know i'll see you in just under two hours. you can tell an ordinary russian siberian in the blink of an. anthropologist in those days siberians wore different clothes different food. different animals. but what about. my journey began in two men but the big city was all shiny skyscrapers and shopping malls much like any other prosperous russian. so i decided to. a small town just outside. dumplings came from here to dominate the russian cuisine but only in siberia.
with cabbage and making sure you can have as a starter main dish. although it may draw. most people in siberia see nothing wrong with hunting only if you decide to participate. when you look upon martin. as in the middle of a swamp only accessible by. it's inhabited by siberian a large muslim minority that migrated head before the russians.
and this. israel siberia maybe not this. as a pro shows but distinctive enough to show that alter oldies yes' for cyber is still not quite like anywhere else. it was the strangest attempt of a military takeover of. the us president trying to overthrow a foreign country's government but his strategic game was lost. and america recognized its defeat. questioning if cuba managed to cope with its victory not at all don't talk to. me i live here. but i live here the cuban missile crisis games and reality t.v. . with.
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