they're able to reach any form of agreement depends on the compromise between the united states europe and russia. and not really on the ukraine and sorry really depends on those big as what they would agree to and of course we should be seeking compromise i totally agree with you well it's interesting that you say that because today the russian daily commerce sandro that impression could put in perhaps the first time mad if not their worth upon and then at least an equally skilled negotiator and i think it's also interesting that both of them when they were younger they used to practice judo so that perhaps impacted that way of conducting politics i want to if you believe that any win win is possible between putin and poroshenko yes i think it is possible but it would have to be a negotiation table and that in other words whatever was if such a compromise was reached that table it's still got to be approved and agreed to by

the united states and europe that's the real battle is the almost cold war situation and this is a second table that's being talked about it would have to be approved at the top table and say whatever is agreed if there is an agreement. today then it would have to be approved to really hold will any water in the future but mr brown the united states and even the european union are far away where is you know russia and ukraine share the border and all variously they both suffer from the conflict and if the new ukraine because of their refugees because of the damage to that bilateral trade what have you i mean it's simply you know for a humanitarian reasons it's devastating to have something like that do you really think that they cannot decide just between the two of them died in if the right time to put an end to it well i think they could that compromise or what i'm saying is that if that agreement was reached and. it would be wonderful if it was it would

still have to be approved at the top table and that's the big struggle is between the united states and russia so if it was agreed with those two and maybe europe at that top table then it would it would it would stand and of course you mention the economic side i don't believe that economics really can be removed from politics politics is about power an economy intelligence military. will to use those things is politics and so economy is an integral part of of. politics and i don't think it can be removed and of course the economic suffering that's going on now on both sides in the ukraine and in russia is part of the political thing and of course now president obama having i think the americans made for great blunders festival they tried to extend nato into the russian

sphere of influence in eastern europe secondly they meddled in the ukraine particularly the european union trying to bring ukraine out of the russian sphere of influence into the european influence that was a big mistake because it threatened russia just as the extension of nato did and then america obama failed totally to see the similarity between the crimean situation and the cuban situation of the one nine hundred sixty s. in the cuban situation seventy eight union trod on americans vital interests close to america and president kennedy could not stand down even if it meant going to nuclear war and i'm sorry for interrupting you here but i think if we all know that america doesn't see russia as an equal partner i mean what's allowed to america certainly in be in the minds of sound washington insiders is not allowed to russia but can i ask you about something that you mentioned earlier that you know at any.

possible deal should be aggrieved by the big table by the big powers of the united states and the really ripping union. yesterday really heard from some finnish officials that they were very instrumental in facilitating a secret and high level meeting between the americans and the russians on the ukrainian issue they said that that meeting took place somewhere in finland earlier this month so that perhaps shows that both russians and americans are looking for some sort of compromises in this crisis what could that compromise look like well i've no idea what the compromise would look like but i have my own personal opinion it's very good news of a compromise was reached i personally think that one solution would be good would be to have ukraine as an autonomous country within the russian sphere of influence totally autonomous with its own government and everything else and free and fair elections not like the last elections but really proper elections and even with the

eastern ukraine being an autonomous region but mr brown when you say a russian sphere of influence what exactly do you mean it would reset russian sphere of influence means that area that russia feels is really part of its sphere of influence and certainly that crimea was and i believe russia believes in the thinks that ukraine is also in its fear of influence and resented deeply the efforts by the european union and the united states to try on a road to link between ukraine and russia and try to pull ukraine into the european union which i think would be a very grave mistake because it would only antagonize russia well mr brown if i may quote the russian president mr putin here yesterday he was very vocal about russia not wanting to exert any pressure of area crams he actually said that russia doesn't want to be a part of any. you know peace deal negotiations he believes that this is something

that ukrainians have to decide for themselves do you think by perhaps on their playing russia's interest here if he is playing quiet i mean the are he said that he's fine with ukrainian making their own choice but not that russia's expanse that was crucial to him this i think it's obama to the negotiating game to throw out these conditions and feelings of goodwill to show a willingness to negotiate to reach a compromise but how much credence you give them is another matter i believe that russia certainly will hold on to the primary it's a vital warm water vote and i believe russia will not agree to anything that allows the ukraine to slip from its sphere of influence into the european union and least a vote into nato now you mentioned some of the mistakes that you believe the obama administration made and i wonder if you believe that any possible deal could be sold to the american public because

a bomb has already been criticized as being to wake up with putin on syria as you know he's been lambasted by people both on the democratic and republican side for not playing tough against putin can he afford to accept any either peace deal without being criticized for appeasing putin well he's made it very difficult because the failure to see the similarity between a crime in and the cuban crisis of the one nine hundred sixty s. prevented him from coming to president putin and then both agreeing oaxaca to president putin and both agreeing to a compromise over the ukraine on the crime in ukraine is really a child of the crime in president putin was so successful in the crimea that he started to get ambitious and look towards the ukraine and if obama had stalled that by reaching an overriding agreement saying ok we'll we'll play cooler on the crimea you take the crimea and we'll pay for. but you play fair on the ukraine i think

a compromise responsible but obama failed to see that and then he magnified it even more afraid to fight russia with soldiers on the ground he tried to institute sanctions and that exposed because the european union does almost ten times the trade with russia that the united states does six hundred forty billion a year and that exposed dangerous splits within nato particularly germany and we've now got winter coming on. and germany has only as forty percent of its total energy imported from russia so i think obama has landed us in a very weak position and it's going to be very difficult for him to recover from it and still hold his head now let me just say that i totally disagree with your analysis on russia's role in the beilenson eastern ukraine i think the united

states and any other countries that allied russia's into fans there are yet to produce any evidence of that but having said that i think this is something that ukrainians please the ukrainian establishment fully believes and they believe that they're at war with russia this is something that you hear all the time from ukrainian television channels and i think that puts poroshenko patrol pressure on kind of very difficult bind because on one hand he always they cannot expect to win over russia militarily but he also doesn't want to be seen as negotiating with putin what other options that he have kept his strike any deal with putin without being accused of being a trader at home while he has called for new elections and it is as you rightly say it's very difficult situation because that is he would be seen as being weak. by reaching agreement with president putin but i think that that is what has got to happen otherwise there will be a halt will and. it will produce starts in the colder weather which favors the

russians particularly if threatening energy cut also known as the ukraine but even to other countries that come to the aid of the ukraine like germany and so on. i think it's going to be very difficult but that is the aim that is compromised both sides must lose in a compromise but russia is by far the most powerful the. entity at the negotiating table and we'll probably lose the least while mr brown let me challenge you on that because i sometimes think that the ukrainians actually have the strongest negotiating position because since they are broke they can really afford to make all sorts of threats including the threat of sabotaging the gas transit to europe every chance i think that ultimate trump card do you think they're likely to use that trump card is that the really on the table now that a russian gas supplies would be totally caught all well yes that would be

a very major trump the dangerous to play it would be like playing with a double edged sword best of all it would give russia an ideal excuse to invade our hardly the ukraine and reestablish a warsaw pact type regime on the ukraine secondly if the sabotage resulted in europe and particularly germany losing large parts of its energy germany would immediately stop the sanctions and would be forced more towards the russian camp than the american camp and so it would be a very dangerous two edged sword in my opinion ok mr brown we have to take a very short break now but when we come back if i didn't put in a really sad on invading for myself and here publics and i saw what for that's coming up in a few moments on of all the party. people

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welcome back to well the part where we had discussing be ukrainian crisis big john brown a former british politician and current by senior market strategist for europe pacific capital mr brown we talked about brush uncle we talked about obama let's talk. about putin's i know that you wrote recently that president putin is trying to reestablish the old russian empire by using so-called selami tactics that is by taking over small slices of territory which are too minor to spark a conflict and i personally don't think that crimea fits that description but anyway if you look at the map of russia it's a huge country in fact is the largest country in the world by landmass so why on earth would you think that putin is motivated by territorial gains as you say

russia has huge eleven time zones it's just enormous. but the motivation is the first two things first of all in the. the original piece the end of the cold war russia was smarting you know having looked as if it had been defeated by the united states and europe and so on and russia has a very proud nation and i think resents that and also russia if you look at it from the russian point of view is very keen on its defense a lot of its borders a mountain areas and huge rivers but the big cargo of flat ideal tank and ahmed warfare country comes through germany and poland into russia and therefore its western front is very important to secure and i believe that russia saw sutton the ukraine as a vital military installation and a vital interest to ukraine and that had to be taken back the ukraine was really

the child of of the crimea because he was so successful in the crimea that he was tempted to start getting back some of the territory that they felt that i feel russians feel were taken from them in the end of the cold war and countries not moldavia and even the baltics should be extremely worried oh but mr brown is there any evidence to support the theory because we keep hearing it all the time from many western forces but you know they had the russian support for rubbles in ukraine ah there any concrete avid ends of that i mean i understand that some people may sympathize for you know all sorts of reasons but odds are any concrete evidence of the russian state supporting be insurgency in your crane i did what i recall as i'm sitting here in america don't know anything on the ground it's just that i know the russians are an old country of very old and experienced diplomatic nation and it would be unwise to allow those sort of things to leak out into the

west i see the headlines of the financial times today photographs of so-called russian parachutists that were captured whether they are whether they're not is left as a nope. in question and quite rightly so russia wouldn't want to be seen to be over strong in this area everything's done sort of just have to start with until it is provoked openly and if it was openly provoked as you suggested like sabotaging the gas pipelines and then oil pipelines things like that then russia would be more open but at the moment it's a clandestine game and therefore there's very little evidence and russia is trying to make sure that there is none but mr brown they have american intelligence services have very substantial global outreach i mean the whole world is being spied on by american satellites so if there were any significant movement troops and i'm not talking about those temporary troopers who are quoting to the russian defense ministry just crossed over into ukraine by mistake because i mean if russia

really wanted to say is send somebody into ukraine or i'm sure they were incensed conscripts i think they would perhaps sound special forces but nonetheless the united states which supports this theory of russia's meddling in the cranium insurgency still hasn't provided and the advents and the shot satellite images what have you of russian troops russian military russian equipment being there on the ground well america has done is said there are more than twenty thousand russian soldiers amassed on the border with tanks alter and so on heavy equipment. but if i didn't know the american intelligence community would enough to say whether or not they feel it's in their interest to release photographs at the moment they i think of taking the judgment that it's not an american interest to release any photographs although as they would have done do they do they just yes president or in the news photographs say with cuba mr brown i mean even you mentioned the cuban crisis but i think in the cuban crisis americans did provide satellite images i

think there was concrete evidence on the table that you know that actually forced the russians into to back out. of cuba but the. danny the same in assam and the same was presented in ukraine we wouldn't spend but so far it's all just baseless speculation and it's totally unsubstantiated well you're right i guess what i said in cuba photographs were produced they went south lives we didn't have satellites in those days they were you to go to grounds from airplanes but the fact is that america hasn't produced the photographs and it clearly has them from satellite. and therefore it overseas sees that it's not in its interests yet to produce them. i don't know what the secret agreement so whether the top level of american terms think but it seems that there's a lot of them that are on the story for a entire interjecting year you were comparing the crimean theater is situation to get to the cuban crisis but let me bring in and now there are example from history

and this is the focal lengths the conflict over the folk and islands and i know that you worked in margaret thatcher's government the government that initiated that campaign to regain the falkland islands and ever since the u.k. government maintained that the people of the full clans have a right to self-determination in two thousand and thirteen there was even a referendum that produced very similar results to the referendum in crimea so why do you think the right of self-determination was allowed to the people of the focal length but is not allowed to the people of crimea well i'm sorry to disagree agree with their eggs on a four guns a gin and tonic a different battle was fought against a soul with a nation by great britain basically on its own with american intelligence and things like that but basically on its own and britain is quite secure in the

fact that the majority of the island does want to stay with britain says it's very easy for britain to say that we would only give them independence if the people voted for it prime or is entirely different or you have a big russian speaking population in the east river rather favor staying with russia and the others peoples in the western cities. were tempted tempted to go along with the european. honey job that was held coming to us and being a using the economy of the military purposes to sort of wean them away from russia but mr brown if we look at the results of that referendum in crimea it was also overwhelmingly in favor of joint. in russia i mean most people in crimea who went to the polling stations they voted for aligning themselves with russia and reach i think is very similar to what their you had in the fall when the islands the the results of those referendums are in the ninety's so i as far as i'm concerned

they're quite similar well in the foreground items the referendum suited the major issues great britain in the ukraine the referendum did not suit the major which is russia and that is the big difference. well speaking about double standards here right well i mean super powers have double standards i mean look at the invasion of the gulf war two into iraq totally illegal by the united nations and international law totally illegal but america led the allies into that invasion and there is stupidly got rid of saddam hussein who was a sunni strongman holding the shiites a day and giving great stability to the middle east i mean got rid of saddam hussein america facing chaos in the middle east well i think america's facing cares not only in the middle east they're all not only in iraq but also in a number of other countries where you've got time to to install democratic leadership and i think the ukrainian example is also somewhat relevant here but if

i could bring it to the economic side of the things wouldn't said that he's not going to negotiate the crimea but he said that he's quite open to negotiate a number of other questions for example the free trade agreement that still stands between russia and ukraine but according to put in there is one condition that the european union and ukraine the united states have to take into account russia's considerations and perhaps make some concessions perhaps make some amendments to the association agreement so that russia feels that its opinion is also taking into account its concerns are. addressed if you were to what would you do because i mean percent is under very had a pressure of not. you know yielding anything to russia but on the other hand i think it would be a pretty good deal if he if he could preserve both the free trade with russia and go on on the path of close r.c.h.

and with the european union what would you do in his place where are entirely agree with you i think it would be a very good deal if he were able to keep his people. able to agree with him and support him in real. ching an agreement with russia so that russia did as those conditions say retained its overall influence over the ukraine although it allowed to do a whole ton of those things like trading and like that even internationally and would russia but the overall sphere of influence would be back with mother russia and that's what i think it will end up as but if. you crane and western ukraine was able to negotiate within those parameters i think you would have peace in the ukraine and i think you would have president obama are only too willing to agree and get out of there and save the embarrassment and get rid of the sanctions which are harming particularly germany and european union and of course threatening the

stability of nato so they would be very clean to the king to find a way out and that would offer a way out mr brown that you just mentioned president obama and obviously we have midterm elections coming up in the united states which will actually an official i guess kick off a new presidential campaign and i wonder if president obama can really really use this chance to turn these. policy crisis in ukraine into a policy success and perhaps event burnish. you know peacemaking credential something that i think he wanted to do in both syria and gaza but failed is there still any political points that he can score on the ukraine either himself or his party is very difficult having made the blunders he's made already it's very difficult to get out with an election winning hero's welcome i think history is going to prove that he is the most disastrous president america has ever had and it's going to be very difficult to cover that trial and i don't see russia

cooperating to help him in any way while there is at least one incentive for russia to call for a van that is to bring peace to ukraine ricci is sad for reaching a sad america would still be instrumental yes. merica will be instrumental but it will be the venture will solution i believe to the ukraine as i said before will be an autonomous ukraine and the sphere of influence of russia with probably increased autonomy for the eastern russian speaking part of the ukraine which will virtually be a province of russia and that would suit russia it would bring priest to the ukraine and it would give obama an excuse to get out without too much egg on his face and would allow the repair of nato and the getting rid of the sanctions which are. very badly at a time of international recession looming on the horizon well at mr brown this is all we have time for we have to leave it here but i really appreciate you being on

the shelf being a great pleasure and to our viewers please keep the conversation going on i twitter facebook and you pages and i hope this hearing can same place same time here in a while the hard. we think of why we think that there are good. beaches. coconut palms gently swaying in the ocean breeze. in fact. white has a deep dark little secret a secret the u.s. government would like you to know about. through our language. bilbo i did read the daily succeeded

a pig and all will. be. dramas the truth be ignored. stories others refuse to notice. faces change the world writes never. so picture of today's lives no longer run from around the globe. dropped. to fifty. decent folks go becoming independent schools a nation that nation should be self-governing they govern the feels better than the low someone else to do it for look.

c.b.s. this is are you see it more than the propaganda. it is the state sponsored rush or today program just words but soon be enough right now to take them in analyze this present that is just ridiculous non answer to my question. john is not happy to support their safety and sometimes their lives over them will bring people stories none the propaganda channels don't want to see and we come to a close some. differently here in syria now many of the members of congress the both parties who have gone to syria in recent ten months has said he's a reformer the big fear mr president is that which is diddy's time for him to go.

and stability and peace to syria is going to be the most obvious step to. choose your language. of choice because with no influential congress they still in the title no such a service are going to choose the news to consume instead of. choose to opinions that invigorating to. choose to stories that impacts good night. choose to access to often. mission to teach me.

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