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tv   Mad Money  NBC  January 19, 2013 3:00am-4:00am EST

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>> take care. bye-bye. >> where are you going to be? >> in new orleans this weekend. business, and he's nuts. they're nuts! they know nothing! i always like to say there's a bull market somewhere, and i promise -- "mad money," you can't afford to miss it. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i just want to try to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. we had that sweet combination of good earnings from companies like general electric, morgan stanley, schlumberger coupled with benign squibbs out of washington that maybe there won't be a big fight, partisanship, maybe there'll be a deal. and that combo produced nice, quiet, bullish action. the dow rallying 54 points, s&p
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gaining .34%, though the nasdaq declined .04% because of a disappointment from intel and earnings jitters from google and apple. yet, despite that relatively rosy action, the earnings season was a bust or the earnings are okay but the sales are weak. people over the place are chastising me for regarding the numbers we've seen so far in the last couple of weeks as positive. like i'm whistling past the graveyard. see no evil earnings. first, earnings season has barely begun. it's about eight minutes have gone by in the first quarter. these nay sayers are acting as if they're watching some football game where the bears/patriots are three touchdowns ahead of the bullish ravens at the two-minute warning. that's way too early to judge. i bridled the notions of these numbers we've seen are somehow weak. i care tremendously about the bottom line, certainly more than most. since when do sales, the actual
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top line revenues have to be fantastic right now? when the quarterly reports depict how business is doing right into the heart of the ridiculous self-inflicted fiscal cliff paralysis. the guidance has been pretty good, darn good for most of the companies i'm listening to. and i don't know how much of that is hope or solid orders in the books, must have o that later. but i can't buy the thesis that the numbers have been disappointing so far. i just can't. i just think that frankly is just way too negative versus what i hear. let me give you my game plan. they're really positive and then i'm reading what i heard is negative. anyway, tuesday, we get results from freeport mcmoran. oh, boy, this is going to be nasty. a company that has explaining to do. a copper play that should be roaring, but it's doing nothing,
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at least next to nothing because of the colossal overpay of the sister company mcmoran exploration. let's hope they can tell us why they're not destroying value with this kind of transaction. good luck with that, guys. we also hear from johnson & johnson, lots of action @jimcramer on twitter about this one, time to hop off the j & j bus because of the new. are you kidding? possibly bringing up value with a breakup, don't you dare sell. in fact, let's hope it comes down, i'd be a buyer, especially before the earnings. google reports after the close. well, this quarter crushed it. by the way, that's wall street gibberish for blow away the numbers. i think google's got enough levers to report a decent quarter. i want to hear about android monetization, search, and how the chrome pc is doing. because i hear it's doing pretty darn well. number one pc seller on amazon of late. on wednesday, frankly, i don't care about any other stock other than apple. comes after the close. but i also know when you're that apple focused you tend to miss
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something big away from it. suffice to say that this is, perhaps, yes, the single most important quarter apple ever had. comes on the heels of two so-so quarters and massive worries about weak iphone sales. all i can tell you is you just have to wait and see. apple's as inscrutable as ever. and i can only advise you about what my charitable trust is doing with its position, which is nothing. too cheap to sell, maybe not compelling enough to buy more. not at least until we know more, which we sure will after the close. yes, i am not selling, i am not telling you to buy or sell. i'm just saying that my trust still owns it and i still think the company's got growth left despite the cascade of downgrades that have dogged the stock for the last two weeks. we also hear from netflix on wednesday. and this stock, well, let's say it's been the opposite of apple. this one's been on a roll. but has the company been on a roll too? or is it just the stock? is it just paying a lot for
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content and need to start talking about big growth again? frankly i wish netflix would take a step back and say, look, guys, we are now part of the -- we have become the de facto way to watch tv in america and we will be the de facto way to watch tv overseas and what we've learned is the major content providers know they can't live without us and not vice versa. that's a simple pitch if you want your stock to go higher. i do love it when reed hastings talks about binge viewing. most recently putting paid to the last season of "breaking bad" in 18 straight hours. take in a dominos pizza, no cheese, and have you seen that rocket ship of a stock at $46? wow. thursday, 3m, in the morning. and lots of people are just -- they're abandoning this ship because they think the valuation is stretched three times earnings again. ridiculous, this company has
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been held back but continues to innovate and deliver. i think it's about to be revalued as the quintessential growth stock in the dow with healthy dividends, i like it. i like 3m's management too. and if we get any price breaks on these days, i want you to buy some 3m. i think it's going to surprise people, open people's eyes. we get results with cellgene too. is there anything he can do after a sensational hit it out of the park presentation earlier this year? i'm not sure, let me say this, everything he said out there, everything that drove this stock up 23 points almost in a straight line was previewed right here when he stood right here, okay. and told you about all the new drugs, all the terrific prospects in the pipeline. he told you. i think the stock should pull, if only because he literally, well, just a couple of weeks, not that long ago he outlined everything. the cat's out of the bag. but right now celgene has been anointed and it would be something if the stock pulled back. celgene is the quintessential stock name for those of you who couldn't get enough of that talk
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last night. that was just the depiction of the animal spirits that have grabbed ahold of the market and won't let it go. i'm not saying the stock's going to 90 to 120. and i saw on twitter, people saying -- no, i'm saying that is the kind of thinking going on in the market. we'll talk about a stock not 90 going to 120. is there anything that microsoft could say that would drive this company back to the past glory days? especially after intel talked about down pc sales? monetization of skype maybe? xbox product extensions? strong nokia cell phones with microsoft stuff in them? you know what? i wouldn't bet against this company down here because the expectations are so low and the cash hoard so large that they've got more flexibility to do something. then friday, we get honeywell's results. maybe it's just summit, new jersey. bob hugens is a neighbor of mine, headquartered in the town
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i'm in. and dave cote is my next door neighbor. get google maps, you can figure out what to buy. he too might be challenged about what to do for an encore after honeywell's remarkable and well-deserved run. if this stock comes down at all next week, it's the one i want to buy ahead of the quarter. autos, aerospace, refining, commercial construction, climate controls. that's actually everything. that's why i want you in it. another one, buy this one ahead, that one ahead. next up is kimberly clark, slow and steady wins the race and so do pro-shareholder managements like kimberly clark's got. it's been one of my favorite stocks and now i think it's going to keep plodding higher, higher, higher. last but not least is warehouser. we said good-bye to the stock for the charitable trust which you can follow along because it had run too much. we were like up too much for the darn thing. but, listen, warehouse is the
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largest timber company, it has it all, especially ahead of the hurricane sandy rebuild. we took profits. that said, if this stock goes down two or three points, we'll be right back in there buying it hand over fist. i'm itching to buy it ahead. but no one ever got hurt taking a profit. here's the bottom line. don't tell me this earnings season is a bust when it's only just begun. i actually like what i've been hearing. i'm actually on the calls unlike everybody else i hear criticizing. they're not doing this level of homework. going forward next week, buy some stocks j & j, 3m and especially honeywell. the rest, including apple, sit back and listen and then we'll make the decisions, informed decisions up before the quarters. jeff in nebraska. jeff? >> caller: jim, boo-yah. >> boo-yah, jeff. >> caller: thanks for taking my call. >> same. >> caller: appreciate the heads up on celgene, $83, i turned a profit. >> thank you, thank you! you're the first person who has admitted that the guy didn't come on the show and chase -- he
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gave the exact same presentation he gave here except that was 20 points later. >> caller: so moving ahead, i've been watching and listening about the banks ahead of earnings. i'm bullish on the sector, but paying attention to the rise in the etf popularity and i honed in on blackhawk ahead of earnings. with the outstanding quarterback, do you think we go higher from here or ring the register? >> i think we go higher, but i don't know whether the 230 calls will capture your gain. so i don't know if the stock's going to move like that. it's just had -- well, let's put it this way, i think that you can get to 240 if we have a decent week, i don't think it goes to 250. earnings season, it has only just begun. so far, so good. next week, keep an eye on j & j, honeywell, and 3m for weakness. and we'll all listen to apple, we'll all have our views and i'll come tell you the next day. "mad money" will be right back. coming up -- rise and hampered.
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first horizon national took a beating today after reporting. but could this be your chance to make a deposit? cramer's checking in with the ceo next. and later -- sweet speck? cramer's got a sweet tooth tonight and he's hungry for a scrumptious speck. chocolate sprinkles or covered in cream, could this stock make you salivate? stick around to find out. plus -- prime pipeline? while the market welcomes new mlps this week, cramer's taking a look at one that's already serving up juicy returns. can he continue to pump in profits? jim's exclusive with the ceo of cross tex energy just ahead all coming up on "mad money." have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to, or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to
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and particularly the regional banks that have been shunned for ages. they're now coming into their own. and maybe they are the best ways to play the strength of the housing market. however, just this morning, the regional banking thesis may have hit a little speed bump in the road. when first horizon national, about 200 branches reported mixed results, stock got hit, fell 30 cents or 2.92%, one of the worst performers today. the problem, first horizon's net interest margin, on the difference between what they pay you for your deposits and what they make from the loans disappointed the street. the company also had lower fee income, something i thought would have been higher. maybe even much higher in this quarter. i'm wondering how much this should bother us, though. i've been telling you net interest margins stink for all the banks, but other things are getting better. and that's what i've tried to focus on with first horizon. the company had 12% growth, first horizon brought back a substantial amount of stock last year, equalled more than 5% of the market cap. did the market overreact? did the sellers come away with the wrong conclusion? or is there more work to do? let's check in with brian jordan
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the chairman and ceo of first horizon national and find out more about the quarter and where his company's headed. mr. jordan, welcome back to "mad money." >> thank you, jim. it's great to be back. >> do you think that people are just disappointed in all net interest margins or are they picking on your bank? >> well, it's hard to tell, there's a lot of volatility in the bank stock, particularly in the regional banks. our net interest margin was down a little bit during the quarter. it's been fairly stable over the course of 2012, and we think with some amount of modest decline a couple of basis points a quarter we could see it drift down a little bit more during the course of 2013. but given the overall environment that we're in, the fact that securities are repricing at lower levels as we reinvest, the overall low rate of environment is not unusual. we do have offsets in our loan
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portfolio as our national strategic non-portfolio runs down or winds off. we have an opportunity to invest in higher yield customer oriented relationships, and so we think we've got some stabilizing forces. it's hard to tell exactly how the market reacted in one given day to our net interest margin. but we feel like we've had pretty good management of it and i'm optimistic we'll maintain some stability in a tough environment in 2013. >> your fee income did come in lower than expected, though, both capital markets and mortgage banking. is that just a one-time only? are we going to see a better series of numbers in 2013? >> well, yeah, capital markets is probably the big driver of any up or down movement in our fee income. the fourth quarter was an unusual quarter in a couple of ways. one, you had the impact of hurricane sandy where the markets were closed for a couple of days. we saw average daily revenue in the business drop from about 1.2 to about $1.1 million, which is
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still within our range o expected outcomes. and it tends to be a very profitable level for us. so it drifted down a little bit. you had in terms of the way the fourth quarter usually plays out, you were short a couple of business days. but we expect that business to be pretty stable. we don't think interest rates are going to change an awful lot in 2013. our client base, particularly the financial institution client base still has a lot of cash to be invested. we think we've got good coverage of that marketplace. and we think we'll do very well in 2013. >> you brought back a huge amount of stock. a huge amount. so that is -- you're trying to figure out your capital allocation. i'm sure someone will say, listen, we've got to save it for a rainy day. and you chose to buy it all in. how do you feel about given the fact that people were somewhat negative today about the stock? >> well, i think, you know, return of capital is a fundamental strength of one of the things we're doing right now.
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we believe in driving shareholder returns in profitability, getting capital that can't be deployed effectively in the business back in our shareholders' hands. so over the course of this year we bought back $135 million plus or minus of stock, $175 million or so over the last 15, 18. i would expect that over the course of 2013, we'll buy back some more stock, we'll look at whether we ought to increase the dividend. i think it's appropriate that we have a good mix of dividend and stock buyback. given the environment that we're in, given the fact that we've got a non-strategic portfolio, loans in particular that are running off, our balance sheet size is relatively stable. that gives us a fair amount of excess capital that we can put back in our shareholders' hands, maintain a very thick buffer against any unknown risks that could come up in the environment. whether it be economic turn or something completely unrelated. strong capital basis and put a lot of cash back in our shareholders' hands over the course of the next 12 months or so.
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>> are you seeing confidence coming back after the election? and some of the bigger guys coming in maybe looking for some construction loans, commercial loans that you can make a ton of money on in the second half of 2013? >> well, we saw pretty good loan growth in the course of 2012, pipelines because we had strong closings in the fourth quarter are down a little bit as we transition into the year. i would say that we haven't -- have not seen a big pick-up in confidence in the marketplace. you're correct and we got through the fiscal cliff, but we've got a number of different things, whether it be the debt ceiling, the sequester, the continuing resolution in d.c. that are on the surface. our sense is customers are gaining confidence, they're willing to make marginal investments, but they're going to be very measured steps and they're going to be reflective of a loan environment that's commensurate with a 2% to 3% growth economy.
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given that we think we'll get our fair share, we'll put some very profitable relationships long-term high-quality relationships on the balance sheet, and at the end of the -- this cycle, we're going to feel very, very good about how our customer business is structured and what that means for long returns. >> bryan, i've got to tell you, this group is going to get hot. i know it has to. and bryan's the chairman, president, and ceo of first horizon national. thank you so much, sir, for coming on the show. >> thank you, jim. thanks for having me. >> we still don't have the confidence. and that's really hurting a lot of the lending in this country. well, look, we get it, these stocks are going to rocket. let's put it that way. fhn, good stock, stay with cramer. coming up -- sweet speck? cramer's got a sweet tooth tonight, and he's hungry for a scrumptious speck. chocolate sprinkles or covered in cream, could this confectionery delight stock make you salivate? stick around to find out.
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back on monday, bob in florida called in to ask me about krispy kreme donuts kkd, hence the donutamid. the stock has been absolutely on fire ever since it reported earnings back in october. 75% in the last two months. and you know what? i would not be surprised if the
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$12 krispy kreme can go to $14, maybe even with ease. so how the heck is this donut stock, a company that makes more than -- admittedly, the most delicious, indulgent foods on earth in an environment where everyone knows healthy eating is what consumers crave? well, you know why people are trying so hard to eat healthy in this country? it's because 2/3 of americans are overweight. and why is our nation so husky? simple, we can't stop ourselves from eating delicious treats like krispy kreme donuts lived until you have one of their donuts just out of the oven in the stores on a cold sunday morning. and the coffee, it's excellent. and that's why krispy kreme is relevant. but it's not why the stock has been en fuego.
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we've already seen small coffee houses, but the german conglomerate, and now there's speculation that krispy kreme could be acquired by a large suitor too. both were taken out in a 30% premium, pete's valued at 33 times earnings and the bid for caribou at 25 times earnings. it's worked. krispy kreme is pretty similar to these two in terms of size and growth opportunities. i could easily see some restaurant paying 29 times plus forward earnings. and at 29 times forward earnings, krispy kreme would be a $14 stock, 35% higher than where kkd is trading now. but you know me, i never ever, ever even on speculative friday recommend a stock purely on the basis of takeover speculation. we're seeing with krispy kreme. the only holes in the story at this point are the donuts. that said, the stock has had an
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enormous run and still very much a speculative play. for this show, it's $780 million, and more importantly, it is checkered. got a checkered history. krispy kreme came public to much, much fanfare 12 years ago, april 2000, with a red hot ipo that surged 76% in the first day of trading. by 2003, the stock was trading at nearly $50. oh, but back in 2004, holes started showing up in krispy kreme's accounting, not just the donuts. the company's first loss back then was blamed on the rise of the low-carb atkins diet. too many stores showing up in places with no ad supports. the company ended up closing half of the stores. many of the franchisees filed for bankruptcy. there was a krispy kreme everywhere. by the time of the great recession in 2009, the stock fell to $1. ever since then, though, krispy kreme has been bouncing back and bouncing back hard. the latest quarter was melt-in-your-mouth good. rose 8.5% year-over-year, even better, the company gave upside guidance for the next fiscal
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year and laid out plans to grow the store base, how much do we like growth in this stock market? right now krispy kreme has 734 shops in 21 different countries. out of those 97 are company-owned stores, 141 are domestic franchises, then the largest portion by far are the 506 international store shops, kind of reminded me of dominos. best stock we ever recommended probably. krispy kreme is now an international growth story. the company's growth plan is to ultimately have 900 international stores by the fiscal 2017 which will be calendar year 2016. they want to open up 394 more international stores over the next three years, 7% increase, that's what wall street wants. the plan is to get to 400 stores by the fiscal 2017 up from 240 stores last year by increasing company-owned locations and franchises. this is a really aggressive growth plan. for just this fiscal year, krispy kreme tends to open five to ten stores and more than 75 international franchises, that
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could be up to as many as 100 new locations heavily weighted to overseas growth. the new locations are small format factory stores which krispy kreme after much study has decided are the recipe for success. it's a much more studied studious krispy kreme than the old days. plus the company might accelerate the growth plans in order to remain independent. right now, krispy kreme is only in 21 countries. even as it seems like they have a lot of global appeal. after it hits the 2017 goals, it can keep growing by moving into new markets. this is not just about a company that's opening new stores willy nilly. the mistake that krispy kreme made back in the middle of the last decade. this time around, the company's being much more responsible. kkd same-store sales have been positive for 16 consecutive quarters now. four straight years. and the latest quarter, the company saw a 6.8% increase, which is fabulous. chipotle's trying to get 4%. plus, even after the recent run, the stock isn't particularly expensive. stock sells for 21.5 times earnings. got 25% long-term growth rate. one of my rules of thumb in this
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game is that when the multiple trades below the growth rate, got a cheap stock. i think krispy kreme sells for 25 times earnings. and that would take the stock to 14 easy. and that would be if it just traded within its growth rate. that's all. some would argue that krispy kreme deserves to trade at a premium to growth considering all the takeover chatter. it has a lower multiple than dunkin donuts that is not being taken over. despite having a substantially 17% growth rate. krispy kreme is roughly the same multiple as starbucks even though starbucks has a lower 18% growth rate. in defense of starbucks, they have a better brand not to mention, indeed, better coffee. you've got two ways to win, it could rally up to $14, i think that could be a conservative number or the stock could go to $16.24, i know, pretty precise, on a potential takeover bid. they seem to be addicted to coffee-related acquisitions as i'm addicted to coffee itself. it is at a 52-week high.
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and i'm willing to endorse buying the stock on a pullback. wait for some market -- believe me, it does happen, knock the stock down and then make your move. here's the bottom line, krispy kreme as this donutamid clearly shows is back. and it's giving you two ways to win. either the company gets taken ore or stays independent and grows like a weed. the only thing that gives me pause is the gigantic move in the share price. i'm begging, be patient, wait for a pullback and please use limit orders if you're going to buy kkd. let's go to bob in my home state of new jersey. bob? >> caller: boo-yah to ya, jim. >> how do you like that burger? cheese on it, onion, pickle, lettuce, that's from stewart's, the vendor. my mom's favorite. what's up? >> caller: got that dollar sign on the bun too. >> don't you love it? it's a restaurant where they've got a jim cramer burger. i love it. you have to take it with lipitor
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and if you can't, take a little crestor. >> caller: i like your view on yum brands with all the bad pr about the tainted chicken, whether it's true or not, i don't know. >> all right. i'm a believer in david novak who runs yum. i'm a believer that the problems with yum are short-term in china. and i am a believer you must buy. and i would buy it right here because my charitable trust, which you can follow on maybe a couple points downside and much upside. i need to go to lewis in maryland. lewis? >> caller: hey, jimmy. some new locations opening in california and texas, how high do you think the stock could go? >> the california growth plan they revealed this week is spectacular. everyone else deserted dunkin donuts when it went to $28, 29. i think the stock goes to $40. i want to own -- i'll see you tomorrow at dunkin donuts. i'll be there between 8:00 and 10:00, get the extra large. and i don't have to ask it, it's
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right there when i get in there. rolling in the dough, krispy kreme is rising back. whether it gets taken over or spreads around the world, i think it's worth getting into. don't move. the "lightning round" is next. so if you have a flat tire, dead battery, need a tow or lock your keys in the car, geico's emergency roadside assistance is there 24/7. oh dear, i got a flat tire. hmmm. uh... yeah, can you find a take where it's a bit more dramatic on that last line, yeah? yeah i got it right here. someone help me!!! i have a flat tire!!! well it's good... good for me. what do you think? geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. we can afford to take an extra trip this year. first boston... then san francisco. hotwire checks the competitions' rates every day so they can guarantee their low prices. so our hotels were half price. ♪ h-o-t-w-i-r-e... ♪
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"lightning round" is over. are you ready skee-daddy. we'll start with mark in california. mark? >> caller: hey, jim, a big boo-yah from sunny california. how are you? >> what's up there, pal? >> caller: thanks for taking my call. first-time caller, big fan of the show and all your books. >> thank you. >> caller: jim, i've heard you talk -- say good things about private equity firms like blackstone and kkr. >> indeed. >> caller: my question is about kkr. two ticker symbols. >> no, kfn -- get the one -- >> buy, buy, buy! >> you want the one with frank nancy, no the the other one. kfn, that is the one. i'm sticking with it. kevin in illinois. kevin? >> caller: jim, boo-yah to ya from out chicago way. thank you for all you've done for us little guys. my stock is verizon. steady dividend payer, but the whole class seems to be dragging. >> yes, it is, because people want more excitement. they want global growth.
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verizon is strictly domestic. i'm going to tell you to hold verizon, not to buy it. it comes lower, we'll use it as a dividend play. it doesn't have that kind of growth. john in virginia. john? >> caller: jim, the wizard of wall street. >> thank you. >> caller: i'm a second-time caller. and to those who post negative comments about your picks and advice, i say that you are correct a lot more of the time than the analysts that people pay -- >> well, thank you. let's go to work. what do you got? >> caller: i'm looking for a couple of high-dividend stocks, monmouth mmr, is it a buy? >> i don't know monmouth. there's so many real estate investment trusts, but i promise to get back to you monmouth. michael in new york, michael? >> caller: hello, mr. jim cramer. >> how are you? >> caller: happy, happy friday boo-yah all the way from smithtown, new york. >> i love smithtown. i don't know if you've been there. what's up? >> caller: well, jim, i have a large hold in synovus. >> i think it's coming back,
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snv, perhaps a great speculation. i want to see the quarter, i want to see t.a.r.p. repaid. and if they do, we are going to pull the trigger. >> buy, buy, buy! >> greg in california, greg? >> caller: tell me something. what is your take on irf? international -- >> if the semiconductor cycle is coming back, which everyone tells me it is, i would be a buyer. eric in florida, eric? >> caller: jim, how are you? >> real good. how about you? >> caller: very good. >> all right. why don't we play a stock thing. go ahead. >> caller: say again. >> what stock do you have? >> caller: aflac. >> aflac is high, it's not expensive. i do prefer aig if i'm going to be insurance, i want to be with bob, i think he gives you the most upside.
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and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the "lightning round." >> the "lightning round" is sponsored by td ameritrade. ♪ let's go to marie in illinois. marie? >> if i could have dinner with you or george clooney, it would be you in a mad minute. >> really? >> caller: yeah. >> george clooney? >> caller: yeah. >> but not bradley cooper? >> caller: no, no, definitely not him. >> dino in california, dino? >> caller: jimmy. >> yo yo. >> caller: welcome to the new year. by the way, i hope you shorted the mayan. >> the mayans? oh, yeah. absolutely. i believe that there is a fundamental turn going on in krispy kreme. it has been ages since i looked at it. the last time i looked at it, i chipped my tooth. with a 10-foot pole and i chipped my tooth. >> okay. all right. that's okay. >> it's still not the way it
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should be. >> rise and shine and thanks for waking with cnbc. i'm jim cramer and there's always a bull market somewhere. so it's go time. get up and make your best move. snoozing. see the market's gotten a little tired. it needs to catch a couple of winks. it wakes itself up perhaps with my alarm clock. >> rise and shine and thanks for waking with cnbc. >> i think it'll wake up rejuvenated and will go higher, not lower, "mad money" will be right back. >> no, the head is right here. >> you're covering the mike. >> okay. okay.
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here on "mad money," we are all about long-term themes. big picture trends you can fall back on the next time the market turns against you. and it will eventually, believe me. one of my top themes for 2013 and possibly beyond is the north american energy renaissance. we discovered so much new oil and gas in this country we could potentially break the strangle hold on the nation's energy supply in less than a decade. and we need new infrastructure to transport the stuff from where it's produced to where it can be used. that's why i've been a big fan of the pipeline master limited partnerships. tonight i want to issue another one, a new one, with the sky high yield that also happens to be a turn around play. xtex for you home gamers. crosstex owns 35 miles of pipeline.
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along with ten nat gas processing plants and 2.4 million barrels worth of nat gas liquid cavern storage. got crushed during the financial crisis. stock traded as low as a buck and change back in march of 2009. i wish i brought it then. since then, it's been in a major comeback. redistribution in 2010. management has said they plan to increase the distribution by 9% in 2013. that's massive. plus crosstex is moving away from where production is declining, shifting to faster growing more oil regions. if the company can execute, i think this can be a terrific story. but i need to know more before i can give it my blessing. let's find out more. let's talk with barry davis, the founder and ceo of crosstex energy, more about his company and the prospects. have a seat, sir. thank you for coming on the
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show. >> thank you. thanks for having me. >> got in a little trouble couple of years ago and you changed your model. the likelihood of that happening is much -- let's say the odds are much lower. >> yeah, jim, we're really excited about where we are today. we've successfully achieved a transformation of our business. in fact, today, 90% of our revenue is generated from fee-based activity compared to less than 70% a few years ago. secondly we have diversified our business by entrance into new geographic basins as you said. thirdly, we've also moved from being 90% natural gas oriented to today we're moving towards 50% natural gas and 50% crude oil and natural gas liquids. >> i'm trying to understand to our viewers what the fee base is. lower estimates and price objective, if your fees, why is there volatility? >> with the fee-based, you don't have the volatility. >> right. >> we've had exposure to the
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commodity prices in as recent as 2008. we were 65% fee-based. today we're 90%. so much less volatility today in our cash flow. >> so you think this kind of lowering estimates had the guidance. didn't necessarily need to do that because things are consistent now. >> well, we are realistic about the commodities sensitivity we do have. we do have processing margins and that really would be the part of our business that he was speaking to in that case. >> well, i'm trying to understand. the natural gas liquids, we've had a bunch of ceos on and those were great business and then the prices plummeted. are you somewhat insulated from a natural gas liquid turn down? >> as you mentioned, we're in the process of investing $1 billion in natural gas infrastructure and crude oil logistics business. the great news is every bit of that, 100% of that is fee-based business. it will continue to desensitize us to the movement of the prices. >> where are you now in terms of
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-- because you made that very bold distribution projection. you're feeling good about that projection. >> yeah, and actually, we think that's a conservative estimate. in fact, the midpoint of our guidance for 2013 exit rate year-over-year will be about a 15% increase in our distribution and about a 38% increase in our dividend. >> so you think you're in the penalty box for what happened? because that's a hefty distribution for a company that yields more than 8%. >> jim, we're confident about our business. so i won't speculate as to why we're in the penalty box. what i will say is we're very excited about the execution that we're in the middle of right now. $1 billion of growth on top of a company that has a market cap of about $2.5 billion. extraordinary growth in our distributions and dividends we think is right on the horizon. >> you're one of the few companies that has actually seen american industry take advantage of the natural gas liquids. you've got a big deal with dow that could be a game changer for the country too, right? >> we're really excited to see what's happening for our
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customers like dow and alcoa and others. they are absolutely benefitting from what we're seeing as a renaissance period with natural gas production growth of 26% in the last five years, 20% natural gas liquids growth in the last five years and 16% growth this year alone in crude oil. so we're seeing a resurgence. and in our market area, particularly in the gulf coast of louisiana, strong industrial growth as we see it in the next two to three years. >> now, are we at a competitive advantage in this country? dow could locate plants anywhere, but you're giving them fee stock for plastic cheaper than anywhere else in the world? >> again, the reason we're very optimistic about the future of this industry. what we're seeing, again, is the growth in production shifting in where the production is coming from, strong demand growth and the infrastructure needed to connect those two points right in the center of the radar. what we do is a great -- >> if you raise that distribution, your stock is vastly mispriced, sir. the one that high yield, particularly you do not raise the distribution.
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that would be a game changer. >> it would, jim. and we think our shareholders who have stayed with us and our unit holders are going to be handsomely rewarded as we continue to grow the distribution and dividend going forward with the growth we have planned. >> pretty confident man. sounds like a good story. thank you to barry davis. guys, 8% and you raise the distribution, this stock almost by nature should go up when that happens. stay with cramer. thank you so much. it's time to change the way we clean. it's time to free ourselves from the smell and harshness of bleach. and free ourselves from worrying about the ones we love. new lysol power & free has more cleaning power than bleach. how? the secret is the hydrogen peroxide formula. it attacks tough stains and kills 99.9% of germs. new lysol power & free. powerful cleaning that's family friendly.
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is hope spring eternal? or are the facts actually getting better?
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that's the crux of what's going on right now in this market. you can see it play out right in front of you. this morning, schlumberger and general electric sounded somewhat somber about their businesses not that long ago. general electric seemed to be lacking confidence that 2013 could be a big year. it took the extraordinary step of pre-announcing a weak quarter not that long ago. boy, those were -- that's old news. today general electric came out with a terrific earnings report. and the ceo was brimming with confidence, not negativity like the last time. talking about his company coming on strong with terrific quarters and amazing prospects, signaling that china is really starting to roar. schlumberger too told a much better story, almost as if the company said nothing negative before this both were among today's biggest gainers. did both squelch hope? frankly, even after listening to the callers, i'm not sure myself. there's always been a but around earnings time. is the reaction to these stocks simply the case of the companies
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setting low bars and taking away all hope, something that allows them to surprise to the upside? i know that's what the naysayers are crowing about. how about morgan stanley, reported dynamite quarter. and james gorman told a remarkable story about turn around, particularly in the wealth management business. the numbers were certainly there and the stock vaulted higher. was that just hope that the bad old days when morgan stanley was perceived to be on the ropes are nobehind them? another case of no hope to hope? and then there's caterpillar. got the stock flying. but it's almost totally about hope. hope that the market will look through the coming weak numbers. the report said the numbers would be weak and said that would happen too. i don't know, i think that could be a tall order. however, though, i said out loud this morning on "squawk on the street" perhaps i'm not hopeful enough.
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i thought the whole second half story had to hold a belief, hope that things would get better. the stock scorched higher without me and i'm totally steam shovelled. finally there's intel. oh, my how much i like this company. i used to be an intel hawk going to new fabs. now i feel intel's turned into a helpless giant openly questioned for the big capital expenditures. intel knows that the customer's always right but seems to have the wrong customers, certainly not apple or samsung. you sure wouldn't want to own the stock based on the quarter or the conference call. but what did management hang its hat on? how did they entice you into thinking you should own the stock here? because of hope, hope that the second half of the year will be stronger globally, that the world's economies are going to get better. and that made me ask myself, is this hope that things will get better or somehow do they just know it? and if they do know things will get better, please tell me how. i certainly believe in hope. in the end, if you're investing,
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i say hope should be part of the equation. you can hope that the ravens beat the belichicks and bradys and sunday, we need more facts to get more bullish from here. and the sooner we get them, the more positive i'll feel about the stocks after the run they've had. stay with cramer. keep up with cramer all day long. follow @jimcramer on twitter and tweet your questions #madtweets. on tuesday morning, we're going to get a test of my hope/no hope together for breakfast. in fact, they might work too well. [ ding! ] [ shuffling, scooting ] [ clears throat ] [ children laugh ] [ female announcer ] golden, crispy outside. warm and fluffy inside. we are one good-looking family. [ children laugh ] [ female announcer ] eggo waffles. simply delicious.
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i'm up next, but now i'm singing the heartburn blues. hold on, prilosec isn't for fast relief. cue up alka-seltzer. it stops heartburn fast. ♪ oh what a relief it is!
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on tuesday morning, we're going to get a test of my hope/no hope thesis and it'll be from caterpillar. because after the bell caterpillar announced a big misconduct problem in china that will cause a huge impairment charge. if you see this stock doesn't come down, well, it's kind of like boeing with the lithium batteries that doesn't go down. then we know perhaps i, a bull, am perhaps too bearish. there's always a bull market somewhere, i promise to try to


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