starting right now. a special edition of abc's "this week." your voice, your vote, 2014. two days to go. the critical issues at stake. control of congress up for grabs. this morning, breaking details. brand new polls. who has the edge? how president obama's last two years are on the line. why the road to 2016 starts right now. we're covering every angle. the very latest from america's best political news team. from abc news, a special edition of "this week." your voice, your vote, 2014. here now, chief anchor, george stephanopoulos. good morning, and welcome. the midterms just two days away. so much at stake, control of congress. governors seats and state

legislatures all across the country. and americans in a sour mood voting about the state of the country and the leaders. president obama not on the ballot tuesday. barely seen on the campaign trail. his record defining the debate, his ratings are dismal. a brand new abc news/"washington post" poll out this morning. only 44% of american few him favorably. the lowest of his career. half the country thinks he's not a strong leader or competent manager. that's weighing down democrats. and reporters in key states, and the powerhouse roundtable. jonathan karl starts us off. >> reporter: from president obama last night, a first. he campaigned with an actual democratic candidate for senate. >> vote for gary. this election's too important to stay home. >> reporter: it's the one and only time a senate candidate will appear with the president during this entire campaign. and this democrat, gary peters of michigan, isn't even in a competitive race. and yet president obama has played a starring role in this

campaign. just not quite the way the white house had hoped. >> obama's senator, not yours. >> reporter: in state after state, republicans have tried hard to make this race about barack obama. >> pryor. o-b-a-m-a. >> reporter: and the president recently played right into the republican play book. >> i'm not on the ballot this fall. but make no mistake, these policies are on the ballot. every one of them. >> reporter: but democratic candidates in tough races have been running hard away from the president. allison grimes who is challenging mitch mcconnell in kentucky, made a splash by not only refusing to say if she voted for barack obama -- >> i respect the sanctity of the ballot box. >> reporter: but running ads slamming the president. >> i'm not barack. >> reporter: and the same thing -- >> it is simply wrong. >> you don't agree that the

president's been politically toxic to many democrats running -- : >> it won't surprise you to hear that i do not agree with that assessment. >> reporter: but just two weeks ago, president obama's approval rating hit an all-time low in the abc news/"washington post" poll. and in most key states, the approval rating is lower. 31% in kentucky, and just 30% in alaska. and even with unemployment down and stocks up, only 28% of americans think the economy is getting better. 63% think the government's ability to solve problems has gotten worse. >> the ebola emergency. the direct threats from isis. >> reporter: it's a campaign with an anxious electorate. with the isis terror threat and ebola scares making their way into the critical final stretch. >> tom cotton voted against preparing america for pandemics like ebola. >> reporter: many democrats are appealing to economic populism. >> she won't vote to increase

the state minimum wage. she's called the federal minimum wage ridiculous. >> reporter: pulling for a minimum wage hike that voters support. but the fracturing of the obama coalition -- >> when women succeed, everyone succeeds. >> reporter: the gender gap has all but staep disappeared. and young voters turning to the republicans. and in a bid to boost the african-american vote, some are resorting to scare tactics. this flyer in georgia, warninthat a vote for republicans is a vote for another ferguson. it's an indication that democrats are worried they may be in for a tough election night. for "this week," jonathan karl, abc news, new york. and the party chairs, debbie wasserman schultz for the democrats, reince priebus for the republicans. welcome to you both. and begin with you, a lot of evidence piling up, this could be a big republican night. gains in the house, closing in on control of the senate. has president obama been too heavy an anchor for the democrats? >> i'm proud of this president.

he's taken us from the worst economic crisis we have faced since the great depression through 55-straight months of job growth in the private sector. that's the longest sustained period of job growth in american history. just the other day on thursday we showed the second-straight quarter of significant economic growth. 3.5% gdp growth. we have created more jobs in manufacturing at any time since the 1990s. and we're continuing to make progress. >> that message is not taking hold. this new poll in a key state, iowa. joni ernst, the republican candidate, 51-44% over bruce braley. that's a state president obama won. harry reid, the democratic leader in the senate says he will not be the democratic leader if joni ernst wins. do you agree? >> i think we're going to hold control the setor. we have a ground game, i don't know reince could take ours over theirs every day of the week.

and we have the early votes in the most states and districts in the country. we have focused on making sure that we bring our numbers up for voters who didn't cast ballots in 2010 but voted for the president in 2008 and 2012. tell you what's going on in florida, i have been here for several days. i have seen really the most enthusiasm and the best organized ground game i've ever seen in a midterm in florida. that's why rick scott is going to go down to defeat on tuesday. the first democratic governor in the 21st century. >> chairman, are you worried that the democrats are going to beat you on the ground? >> well, the problem they have is that their message isn't working. and we're -- our ground game is whipping their ground game. if you look at colorado, we're up by 105,000 votes right now. cory gardner is tied with women with mark udall. winning hispanic voters in colorado. whipping them in arkansas. we are at a dead even early vote right now in iowa. we were down by 21,000 votes in iowa in early vote in 2010.

joni ernst is up by seven according to the des moines register yesterday. we're winning obviously in montana, west virginia, south dakota. i haven't talked about alaska, louisiana. and see what's going happen in north carolina and new hampshire. >> this may be a rejection election of those in power, but how about this continuing problems of the republican brand? our new abc news/"washington post" poll shows 72% disapproval for republicans in congress. and rand paul, one of your potential presidential candidates, was blunt this week. he said the republican party brand sucks. what do you say to rand paul and those voters? >> well, i'm very close with rand. we just did a conference call together two days ago with the campus captains across the country. and we have talked about this across the country. he said we're on the right track and doing a lot of the things we should be doing. engaging hispanic voters, black voters, asian voters.

talking to women not just for four months before an election, but four years. and the things i have been leading the way on the party on for two years. and i don't know if you have been looking at the polls, but we're winning with women in kentucky. mcconnell is winning with women against allison grimes. cotton is winning with women against mark pryor in arkansas. what rand paul is saying is what i have been saying. we have spent way too long as a national party showing up at the end. and we have to do better. that's why when he made the comments, he made them at the black engagement office in detroit that we paid for. >> congressman -- >> we're going to have a great night. >> let me go to -- if the republicans do have the great night that reince priebus is talking about. there's a lot of evidence they will, won't that demand a course correction from president obama? >> well, look, george, going into tuesday, i'll back up our ground game against his ground game. he has been putting as much

money as he could. trying to stand up a ground game. i know he would take ours over theirs. we're doing better in north carolina and new hampshire. we have candidates across the country focused on the issues, importance of the middle class and working families. and the republicans have doubled down on obstruction and extremism. stack up our policies of increasing the minimum wage and fight for equal pay for equal work which republicans oppose. i'd stack up our surrogates. we have president obama, vice president biden, secretary clinton, president clinton. and they have rand paul, chris christie and ted cruz. so going into election day, the advantages that we have are superior to the ones the republicans have. the most important things that voters are askg themselves is who has my back? and they will consistently across the board say democrats have their back. and that's why in the midterm election where normally the president's party loses an average of 29 seats, these races are extremely close.

when we keep races close like this, democrats win. that's what's going to happen. >> if republicans don't take the senate on tuesday, is it a failure? >> i think we have to take the senate. yeah. i would be very disappointed. i don't know why she's using your have the back line, not going to go there. but i would encourage the media to look at what the dnc is spending on the ground with that ground game. they are not the competition. it's the senate democrat committee that's putting the ground game together, not the dnc and not what debbie's talking about. and we're winning on the ground. look at early voting. absentee ballot voting. and their message isn't working. if they have a great message about the things that she's rattled off, they should be winning across the pord aboard they're not. >> thank you. and now the candidates. it's a diverse field. they caught the eye of david wright. ♪ i traveled across the plains >> reporter: across the country this year, no shortage of characters.

from a guitar-playing democrat channelling bob dylan in south dakota. ♪ you know i've been to every town in our state ♪ to a hog-riding mom in iowa who clearly knows how to man handle a hog. >> i'm joni ernst, i grew up castrating hogs on an iowa farm, so when i get to washington, i'll know how to cut pork. >> reporter: dimension? she's packing heat. there are some interesting newcomers. among them, elise sks tephanek, at age 30, hoping to become the youngest woman ever elected to congress. and there's mia love in utah. who would be the first black woman republican elected to the house. in north carolina, clay aiken has struggled to parlay his success on american idol into a seat in the house of representatives. a familiar name can be helpful in politics.

i'm voting for you. >> reporter: this year dynasties abound. george p. bush, son of jeb, nephew of 43, grandson of 41, makes his debut, running for texas land commissioner. and in georgia, two democrats, following in family footsteps. jason carter, grandson of jimmy, running for governor and michelle nunn, daughter of sam, running for u.s. senate. in massachusetts, an october surprise. the boston globe revealed that seth moulton failed to mention he won the bronze star for valor in iraq. hadn't told his parents. apparently he's modest. >> 35 years as a member of the army national guard, i retired this year at a colonel. >> reporter: plenty of other candidates playing up the fact they served. among them, republican scott brown. having lost his massachusetts senate seat, he moved to his vacation home in new hampshire to run there. switching states.

if he's elected, the first senator from two different states in 136 years. for "this week"week, david wright, abc news, new york. >> the biggest prize tuesday night, control of the senate. republicans need to pick up six seats to win it back. we're focusing on the 16 battle ground states most likely to determine the outcome. right now, three veteran reporters on the ground. some of those most crucial states. okay henderson from iowa, and the kansas city star, and mark stewart from abc 7 news. and begin with you, the des moines register poll out last night, giving joni ernst a seven-point lead over bruce braley. that poll has such a solid record. it correctly predicted president obama's win back in 2012. is that on the ground like she is breaking this thing open? >> it does. among republicans they are absolutely jub lent as you mentioned. the registers polls are the gold

standard here. democrats immediately used the phrase outlier to describe this poll. they point to other public opinion polls released in the past week that don't show her with that wide of a lead. but she seems to have momentum on the ground. democrats are really digging in and emphasizing the ground game. by the time the polls open tuesday, 40% of voters will probably have voted already. >> and we just heard chairman reince priebus, talking about the republican gains in the early vote. how about a reality check on that? >> that is the reality on the ground. republicans have played the game. the question is, did they pull in people who would have voted on election day, or are they truly turning out unlikely voters? and then turning the tables on democrats who in 2012 really surprised republicans here in iowa. if you remember, the romney folks thought they were going to win iowa handily in 2012 and president obama won by six

points. >> that's not the way it turned out. thank you. move to kansas. greg orman, the independent taking on the incumbent. senator pat roberts, steve joins us from there. this has been a stiff challenge from greg orman. but it does look like pat roberts has stabilized and held on. this race, so close right now. >> it's impossible to tell where this race is going. the polls have orman maybe a point or two ahead, a compilation of polls suggest that the average that he's ahead by a couple points. going into election day, it's just very, very hard to tell. if you do look historically at the trends, though, a republican incumbent senator in the low 40s, his chances of winning aren't very good. but this is an unusual race with an independent in kansas. we've never elected an independent in this state. we have to wait until tuesday to see where we are. >> and you have the governor's race, sam brownback in the fight of his life. how is that spilling into the senate race? >> it's hard to tell.

i think they are making independent choices on these two. different factors, different sets of circumstances affecting both of these races. they are looking at them independently of each other. >> now to colorado. thank you, steve. i want to -- where we have congressman cory gardner challenging the incumbent, mark udall. and we are joined by mark stewart. one of the things we saw in this race, you saw mark udall talking about women's issues again and again and again. in one of the debates, they called him mark uterus. has that emphasis backfired on uda udall? >> some argue to an extent. but they are standing by this one issue, women's rights. women's reproductive issues campaign. the democrats think that, first of all, it will solidify their base, which is important in colorado. one-third of the voters are democrats, one-third are republicans and the other third are independents. in order to win, you have to have your base.

thing that that will drive democratic voters to the polls. in addition thing that it will create some doubt, perhaps, among independents. that if cory gardner is elected, there will be sweeping changes. whether it be with birth control or other issues related to women's rights. so they feel that by running this one issue campaign they will court people within their party as well as some of the independents. >> but gardner has a steady lead for the last several weeks. i remember the last senate campaign, michael bennett was going in behind to election day, but pulled it out with the ground game. how is that going in colorado? >> this race is determined by voter turnout. they are placing a lot of emphasis on the ground game. democrats have been very confident saying that they have already knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors. republicans, though, are being kind of close to the vest about all of this. they are making a point of not discussing their ground strategy.

but, again, both camps really are saying their ground game is the strongest. >> mark, thanks very much. coming up, nate silver lays out the midterm forecast. and the roundtable, what to watch fotuesday night. we're back in just two minutes. they call it planning for retirement because getting there requires exactly that. a plan for what you want your future look like. for more than 145 years, pacific life has been providing solutions to help individuals like you achieve long-term financial security. bring your vision for the future to life with pacific life. talk to a financial advisor to help build and protect your retirement income. pacific life. the power to help you succeed.

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silver from 2012. he's the forecast from fivethirtyeight.com. and his statistically take on the presidential election was dead on. correctly predicting how all 50 states would break. he's inspired all kinds of imitators. all are predicting a big election for the gop. the new york city times giving

republicans a 70% chance of retaking the senate. huffington post, 74%, and the "washington post" puts it at a whopping 94%. let's hear from nate. thanks for joining us. saw your post, 72% and climbing for republican takeover. >> yeah, we saw some new polls this morning in states like georgia, kentucky, that have further good news for the gop. it's still close. you have six or seven or eight that can go either way. the poll in iowa, one of the most reliable in the country. all these races are being held in purple or red states too. the bar isn't that high. the polls are clearer now that the gop will -- will probably win the senate. about a 73, 74% chance right now. >> by this time in 2012, you had reached the point you said it would take a systemic bias in all the polls, they would all have to be wrong for president obama to lose. you're not quite there on republican takeover of the senate.

>> we're not quite there. you can carve out a path that goes through some red states like winning in alaska and georgia and kansas. those states the polls are close or ambiguous or both. but it looks like in the swing states like colorado and iowa, democrats are underdogs. they're almost certainly going to lose. at least four seats. arkansas looks like it's going the way of the other states like south dakota that are very red to begin with. louisiana, mary landrieu has a run off, probably, another month to campaign. but democrats may have to bank on a runoff in louisiana and georgia and extending the campaign and winning some of those races as underdogs. >> what's the biggest x factor? what donald rumsfeld might call the known unknown? >> i think it's the fact that people are not happy with either party. is there an in anti-incumbent wave? for governorships, probably a lot of incumbents lose or come close to losing.

how do you square this moderately pro-republican mood with the anti-inup bent mood? pat roberts may lose, even though republicans have a good night overall. it's a multi-dimensional sort of election. makes it a bit more complicated. but overall signs look poor for democrats. >> joining us tuesday as well and the roundtable. they're all part of the election eve tuesday night. matthew dowd and cokie roberts. chief white house correspondent jonathan karl. republican bill kristol, and democratic strategist, donna brazile. picking up on the last point from nate, we know that voters are angry and upset with washington. hurts democrats disproportionally but not solely.

>> it's the dynamic they have become. we realize there's no static quality where the voters are. in 2004, they predicted a realignment for the republicans. 2006, democrats win, 2008, barack obama, predict realignment, 2010, lose. 2012, barack obama reset the country. the demographics say republicans can't win. now the republicans are facing a great night. it's clear to me, those seem mixed, the voters are sending a clear signal. they're tired of the way washington operates. >> it's interesting, in some states you'll see the governorship going one way and the senate going another. so it's not purely partisan. it is on the governor's level something about the individuals running. on the senate level it is the washington thing. >> they're the big incumbents. bill kristol, big republican night, what worries you most going into it? >> i was -- i have been -- >> you worry less? >> being a republican over the last couple decades, what is there to worry about? they're great, control congress,

brilliant strategists. nothing goes wrong on election night. i've been optimistic for about six weeks. i thought it could be a plus ten in the senate in mid-september. and could end up there. what worries us, of course, after this they have to do two things, do a good job controlling both houses of congress, which isn't easy. and win in 2016. this is different than 2014. >> looking like a tough night for democrats. and i was struck by something matthew dowd wrote, it was a mistake for democrats to shun obama on the campaign trail. do you agree? >> yes. because in manyays they could have talked about the economy. they could have talked about the things the democrats are proposing. raising the minimum wage, equal pay for women. localized the elections so they didn't have to deal with the unpopularity of president obama with certain groups of republicans. but look. it's a tough year because democrats are basically defending 21 seats in the united states senate, seven that mitt romney won in 2012. six that president obama lost.

i told cokie, unfortunately i only get to go home during midterms. that's the only time democrats compete in the south. it's hard to win votes when you don't talk to voters in two years. i don't predict a total bad night, but i wore red. >> your suit is spreading your message. >> it's the love. >> you showed the difficulties that president obama has had. how frustrated is the white house by this whole notion that the president couldn't go out and campaign? we saw it bleed out in the rhetoric. he wanted to be on the ballot. >> he's frustrated as the president of the united states. to hear him say my policies are on the ballot and then add the extra, every single one of them. >> and the democrats are like this -- >> deep frustration. pointing to the governors. he did get out in them. he was allowed to campaign for some of them. and you may see democrats knock off key republican governors. scott walker in wisconsin. that's close. it's one of the few races that obama appeared at. >> and get to something else

quickly here. it does appear, even the man running the campaigns for them, steve israel, saying it is going to be a grim night. could see double digit gains for the republicans. >> it's not massive. there's not that many seats in play. but you are going to see about ten. that's double digits. i think it will be about there. but one of the things in jonathan's very good piece, talked about the young vote and women. and the most recent poll. i think the most disturbing thing for the president and democrats, is the hispanics off of him in huge numbers. if that holds true in this election and 2016, that's a longer term problem. >> quick break now. back in two minutes. how will tuesday's midterms set the stage for 2016? the future candidates were all over the map. what do we learn about how they would run? who got helped and hurt the most? that's all coming up.

after filling out their hogan iquestionaire, aight. hogan was awarded an a- from the nra. but now he refuses to release his responses. the nra opposes comprehensive background checks. they want to weaken maryland's gun safety laws. even support letting suspects on the fbi terror watch list buy guns. on gun safety and terror, the nra is wrong. hogan gets an a- from the nra.

on protecting maryland, we just can't trust him. some stats there on the money race. if you're worried about the $10 in oklahoma, the web ad from the sierra club against the incumbent senator, james inhofe. and the midterms, the shaping the white house run in 2016. wide open right now. so many campaigns sharpening skills and pocketing favors by campaigning in key states. jeff zeleny takes a look at how they're doing. >> reporter: the campaign trail is crowded. >> i'm back. >> reporter: but those logging the most miles aren't even on the ballot. at least not this year's ballot. >> too many people only get excited about presidential campaigns. look, i get excited about presidential campaigns, too.

>> reporter: just this week in kansas, senator rand paul moved beyond the state's wild card senate race and plunged straight ahead to hillary clinton. >> she says, businesses don't create jobs, anybody believe that? >> reporter: jeb bush echoed the criticism of clinton as he campaigned in colorado. >> she said that don't let them tell you that businesses create jobs. >> reporter: the potential 2016 candidates are traveling across the country to red hot races for senate and governor. hillary clinton hit 18 states. elizabeth warren went to nine, rand paul and jeb bush eight each. ted cruz, just four. and chris christie, as chairman of the republican governors association, visited 17. but look how often some of the top republicans passed through the golden battleground of iowa and new hampshire. cruz, 11 times, paul, 10, and christie, 9. they're introducing themselves to party activists and building for the future.

when we visited new hampshire with cruz, he brought republicans to their feet and made an early case for new leadership. does this increase your interest in running? >> i do think the american people in november 2014 and also in november 2016 are going to be looking for leaders who want to work to restore america's leadership in the world. >> reporter: that sounds like a yes. >> it increases my interest in doing everything i can to change the direction we're on. >> reporter: while cruz is among those inching closer to running, other big names like elizabeth warren are not. but she's one of the biggest democrat draws of the season. appearing earlier this week on "the view." >> this isn't about me. one of the reasons i wanted to be here today is to talk about the importance of women voting. >> reporter: not all exchanges have been so polite. like chris christie's encounter with a protester in new jersey. >> listen, you want to have the conversation later, i'm happy to have it, buddy.

but until that time, sit down and shut up. >> reporter: that moment and all others from this campaign will follow the candidates into their next race which could be just around the corner. for "this week," jeff zeleny, abc news, washington. and we're back now with the roundtable and a mini debate over whether sit down and shut up is the right way to go. matthew, let me begin with you. look at the candidates out there, who had the best pre-season? >> the one that we'll be talking about most in the aftermath of the election is john kasich who we're not talking about. john kasich. he's going to win that race in a key state. key state for republicans, ohio, by more than 20 points at a time when other democrats are doing well in governors. the person most concerned about the results on election night is hillary clinton. people are voting against the status quo. they're voting for change. they want something different. and her experience in the time she's spent over the last 20 years represents in most people's mind the status quo.

>> you know, matt, she has enabled democrats to keep it close. campaigned in 30 states for over 40 democrats. she's made a difference, not only in fundraising -- >> all of which they'll lose. >> not true. i think michelle nunn will pull it out. injeanne shaheen will pull it out. and kay hagan. because of hillary clinton. and allison grimes came back from the so-called political dead -- >> really struggling -- >> the thing about hillary clinton that you have to keep in mind, just the mere fact of being a woman is a change in the status quo. and that is something that is just there. >> do you think she has to worry about this? do you think she has to worry about the fact she represents the status quo? >> sure she does. but i still think the overriding question of electing the first woman president changes that. >> how does that question change for jeb bush? is he seen as the establishment?

is he seen as part of the past? >> i don't think he'll get the nomination at all. >> the nomination, i think if he steps out with a great agenda for the future, he can overcome that. he was last in public office almost ten years ago. hasn't been on the ballot since 2002. who are the stars of the election night going to be? joni ernst in iowa, 43 years old, tom cotter in arkansas, 37, cory gardner, pain in colorado, 39. on the democratic side, michelle nunn in georgia, mid-30s? something like that? >> 40s. >> i have to think that the story coming out of tonight is going to be -- out of tuesday night is young is good, change is good. and i think that's bad for hillary clinton. and bad for jeb bush. >> jon karl, is that a good message for ted cruz and rand paul? >> it's interesting. there's a lot of talk about how obama is not campaigning in the key senate. ted cruz hasn't been out there either. >> in alaska. >> he's not in the lower 48 states. the last few days in alaska. one appearance in georgia. that's it in the last two weeks. the only two senate races. >> because the candidates haven't wanted him?

or he hasn't wanted to go? >> he's not no demand. >> both sides will misread the results of this election completely. both sides. republicans will think we don't need to change the brand, sending them for a loss in 2016 if they don't change their brand and approach this differently. democrats will say, it was the midterms, low turnout. and we don't need to do anything differently. that's a mistake. somebody's going to have to step up and be the populist candidate, the candidate of change. like bill says, somebody young and probably a governor. >> that's why michelle nunn's campaign has been so interesting. because she has been that populist voice. she has run an anti-romney campaign. against david perdue. that's at least bringing her -- >> making it possible for her. but i wonder if that means, based on what you are saying, first to you, bill, that the big candidate in 2016 isn't on the map yet. is that ssible? >> i thought about that. i think it's possible.

i think walker, cruz, rubio, that generation of republicans come out of tuesday night strong. but i don't look -- why is it impossible for someone who just wins this year, or somebody right now -- >> obama -- >> to come out and run in 2016. i don't think that's impossible. >> who should hillary clinton be worried about? >> elizabeth warren. i still believe that her message resonates with the broad american public. fighting for students, for the middle class. i think she's -- >> you see those ready for warren people out there as well. they're not anywhere near as big as ready for hillary. but they're out there. when i interviewed elizabeth warren in 2012 and consider running for president in 2016, she says no, no, no. now she's saying i'm not running. >> i don't think she's going to run. >> a lot less definitive now. >> picking the best and worst of the 2014 campaign. the new stars. a whole lot more. but first the "powerhouse puzzler." scott brown, intending to become the first senator to represent

two different states in 136 years. here's the question, who was the other politician that represented both new hampshire and massachusetts in congress? cokie knows it, but you all come back. and massachusetts in congress? cokie knows it, but you all come back. with over two hundred thousand businesses, from fashion retailers to healthcare providers, from jewelers to sporting good stores, to help their customers get what they want and need. banking. loyalty. analytics. synchrony financial. engage with us. maestro of project management. baron of the build-out. you need a permit... to be this awesome. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the

mid-size price. (aaron) purrrfect. (vo) meee-ow, business pro. meee-ow. go national. go like a pro. okay. we're back now with the puzzler. name the politician who represented both new hampshire and massachusetts. cokie, jon karl, daniel webster -- everybody got it. i have to commend you.

you were an honest man. you saw it, but still put the question mark. >> his desk is still in the united states senate. daniel webster's desk is there. >> i didn't know that. there he is right there. he represented both new hampshire and massachusetts. we'll be right back. massachusetts. we'll be right back. hi, i'm henry winkler

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there you see it right there. lots of money being spent in those. but it's not just on the air waves, it's online too. social media playing a critical role in this election. candidates, parties and the press all over facebook and twitter. alicia menendez all over the tracking of it. >> hey, george. since mid-summer, 27 million people, that's about a third of potential voters, have commented on this election using facebook. talk about polls, they only tell us part of the story. that's why we look to social platforms like twitter, facebook, to give us sense what

have people are talking about unfiltered and uncensored. let's look at some of the top tweeted issues in this election. number one, president obama, no surprises there. republicans have been trying to make this election a referendum on the president. number two, terrorism, including tweets about isis. number three, law enforcement. while twitter is not a perfect science, if you look at some of these tweets, president obama, terrorism, law enforcement, national issues coming into this election. >> not what the democrats wanted to be talking about. how about the key senate races? >> reporter: on the key senate races, five we are looking at, number one, alaska, number two, new hampshire, number three, iowa, number four, north carolina, number five, kentucky. now you might be surprised, george -- >> you have to tell us about alaska. >> alaska at the top of the list. it's important to note that twitter adjusts the measurements here. they adjust the volume based on population. maybe why alaska is at the top. but it's an important race. over $30 million spent in the race.

a democratic incumbent with a small margin under the obama wave. democrats know they have to hold on to the seat. it may be the one we're looking to all night long. >> and polls iffy in alaska. thank you very much. and tracking social media on tuesdaday. and unveiling the new partnership with facebook. back to the roundtable. and best and worst picks for the race. but first, i thought that was kind of telling. the issues that were talked about on twitter. we were talking about that during the break. the economy not up there. the issue debates that were going on in the last six weeks really did work against the democrats. >> absolutely. it goes back to the whole issue of dysfunction in washington, d.c. and voters being so dissatisfied with both major political parties. but clearly when your party is in control of the white house, you pay the penalty. >> this is what i think the big mistake is in how people are running midterms these days. they are basically presidential

elections outside of the presidential election. democrats should have nationalized this race. this was a national race. midterms are national. we need a national race to confront the republican's national message. one national message, negative by the republicans. and democrats thinking they could run state by state. >> i don't think it works. the midterms are the equivalent of a parliamentary -- >> not anymore, i don't think. >> i think so. you know. a vote of confidence. it's our opportunity as a country to say we don't have confidence. and -- or we do. and so i think that -- i don't think that the democrats can have a national message in that kind of environment. >> how can you avoid it? >> it was a tough cycle for democrats no matter what. but then the twin crisis of isis and ebola. ebola, an october surprise. just made it that much worse. i mean, real serious -- >> could have been just the opposite. if you handle those things well, you can show yourself as able to govern. >> not when two thirds of the country says we're going in the

wrong direction. it's very hard. best campaign of 2014? >> joni ernst in iowa. who ironically republican establishment in washington, consultant types, they were more fonder of mark jacobson, businessman who could self-finance. the golden thing. more money. she was the somewhat obscure state legislator. ran a good primary. crushed jacobson. and has run a terrific general election campaign. looks like she'll win in iowa. >> you and cokie agree on a candidate. >> michelle nunn. she's a first time candidate. normally first-time candidates cannot find their groove. she's been able to campaign throughout the state. very little mistakes. i think she's run a terrific campaign. >> you said john kasich? >> yeah. the test of a race is whether or not you hear anything about it. it's a swing state in mid western state that's key, i had to look it up this morning. who the democratic was -- >> but he's been a total disaster -- >> for john kasich to win in

ohio by 25points which is like -- it's an amazing thing. >> i would say cory gardner in colorado. down double digits. run a new near-flawless campaign. i would agree with michelle nunn. aside from michelle nunn, gardner. >> the worst campaign? >> the one i did name was -- which candidate was the democrat in ohio, fitzgerald. but the worst -- i think mark udall has run a terrible campaign. >> colorado. >> colorado. going after women on abortion and birth control and all of these things is pandering in a way that women start to just resent. >> you agree with that? >> yeah, udall just obsessed. he's a moderate. could have run as someone who had been a pretty decent senator, presumably. instead looked like a crazy person. he's going to take away access to contraception. do they believe that some republican senator is going to do that? >> changed his position on personhood. i guess the republican haves found their voice in the middle. and not on the extreme right that the democrats position themselves.

it's like extremists, and these guys have turned -- and women have turned out to be moderates. >> udall should have anticipated. >> of course. >> everyone thinks that moderates, independents, mayor pro choice. unhappy with the social issues. there are pro life democrats. it's important to hold those votes in a swing state. you can hold them if you say i'm pro-choice, i respect you, you're pro life. if you stigmatize those would that don't have the most extreme abortion views -- >> i picked the worst campaign, terry land in michigan. >> it's competitive. >> supposed to be a competitive state where a republican governor is going to win. stick a woman on the ballot. that's going to solve the problems. horrible campaign. controversy to it. the other thing that's interesting is all the money spent, all the time spent, whether or not they are going to turn out and listen to the voters. it he minds me of the new nicole

kidman movie, "before i go to sleep," they are going to wake up on election day and forget what just happened. >> there's a clear worst candidate this year. it's pat roberts. kansas has not elected anyone other than a republican since before the "wizard of oz" hit the theaters. he's run the campaign -- and, you know, originally he didn't have wi-fi in his office. no yard signs. it's a total disaster. >> stopped campaigning right after the primary. which gave, i guess, the independent an opportunity to go in and seize control. >>e had no idea that the democrats would pull out and support the independent. which is unusual. >> why is great. why is why these things matter. this is why politics isn't static. >> politics matters. let's talk about the day after. it looks like a big republican night. we don't know the exact numbers yet. you're covering the white house. the president is going to have to come out the day after, do that press conference.

come up for some synonym for taking a thumping, or whatever. but it doesn't appear yet that the white house is sending any signals there's going to be a course correction. >> no. the white house is charging ahead with an executive order on immigration. we'll see if they stick to that the day after the election. rrently saying they will go ahead with the executive order. doing what they couldn't do through congress. this is going to be a big finger in the eye of republicans and a real message it's confrontation with the new congress, not working with them. >> what are the prospects for -- let's assume for the sake of argument. we don't know. mitch mcconnell, the leader of the senate, where are the possibilities for compromise with president obama? where would you look first? >> what thing is there are a bunch of medium-size pieces of legislation they can pass in the first couple of months that will have democratic support that will be hard forresident obama to veto. if you like your health plan, you can keep it. keystone pipeline, energy legislation. some things that have had

democrat votes in the house. when they have been brought to a vote. harry reid has prevented them from coming to a vote in the senate. start off with fairly cautious small ball in the senate, which is prudent, and congress. then big choices about how to push on big issues. >> 15 seconds left, jon karl, mentioned tax reform. you could see some bipartisan movement behind a big infrastructure program. >> exactly. infrastructure is one you could see. not massive tax reform, but something on corporate taxes is something that both parties like. >> the republicans need to prove they can get something done. he has to change -- >> i'm not sure -- >> the president has to change the means of governing, not the ends. the means of governing is broken. he has to change it. >> see you tuesday night. the "sunday spotlight" is next. the american father freed from captivity in north korea speaks out for the first time. out for the first time.

now to a rare look inside north korea from jeffrey fowle, the american father and evangelist held captive for six months. speaking out and revealing the surprising way he was treated, his fears about never getting out, and why he left the bible behind. bob woodruff has the "sunday spotlight." >> reporter: a home coming in ohio, nearly six months in the making. jeffrey fowle holding his three children for the first time

since his release from detention in north korea. he traveled to the isolated nation on a tourist visa and carrying a bible. he came up with the secret mission, to leave the bible in north korea even though his wife asked him not to do it. >> i was motivated by the stories i had heard of the severe persecution of the underground christian church. >> he was taken into custody after leaving the bible in a bathroom in a club. it prohibits religions not approved by the state. >> two guys came up, is this your bible? i said, yes. they said come with us, then. >> reporter: what did you say you were doing with the bible? >> i admitted i was leaving it behind for hopefully a christian to find. >> reporter: and while north korea is notorious for its brutality towards political prisoners, surprisedly he said his jail was a luxury hotel. i have stayed there several times during my trips as a journalist. how did they treat you physically? >> physically, i was not abused at all. three meals a day.

after i was there for about two weeks straight, my interpreter would go out with me for about a 30 or 40 minute walk. >> reporter: he spoke from his detention in north korea, also known as the dprk. >> the government of the united states, as well as the government of the dprk, them too. >> reporter: they wanted you to criticize the united states. the government. >> yeah. they did include the united states and its hostile stance against the dprk. >> reporter: do you think the u.s. is hostile? >> no. >> reporter: you had to say something you don't believe. >> yeah. >> reporter: he is the third american to be held by north korea. still in custody, matthew todd miller and kenneth bae, a christian missionary sentenced to 15 years hard labor for anti-state activities. why is that you were let go and not the others? >> i ask myself that question every day. >> reporter: back home outside dayton, he vows no more secret missions. if you could do anything different if you did this again,

what would you do? >> stay home. maybe. i don't recommend doing this. i don't recommend anybody sneaking across the border with a sack full of bibles. or anything else. >> reporter: his family is just glad to have him home again. for "this week," bob woodruff, abc news, lebanon, ohio. anks to bob. and now we honor our fellow americans who serve and sacrifice. this week the pentagon announced the deaths of two service members supporting our operations in iraq and afghanistan. operations in iraq and afghanistan. and we'll be back after this after filling out their hogan iquestionaire, aight. hogan was awarded an a- from the nra. but now he refuses to release his responses. the nra oppos comprehensive background checks. they want to weaken maryland's gun safety laws. even support letting suspects on the fbi terror watch list buy guns. on gun safety and terror, the nra is wrong. hogan gets an a- from the nra.

on protecting maryland, we just can't trust him. follow the lines, because this election night, they're onlines. the economy, the threat of terror, immigration reform. who gets power? who controls congress? will shape this president's last two years and set up what happens in the race for 2016. election night, the voice of americans will be heard loud and clear. and abc news is listening. george stephanopoulos leads an unprecedented live streaming seven-hour digital event. and at 10:00/9:00 central, the live stream hits abc tv in a special event in times square to the hot zone across the country where the true balance of power will be determined. all anchored by george stephanopoulos with diane saw r

sawyer, david muir and alicia menendez and the best political news team. abc news, your voice, your vote, election night 2014. america turns to abc news. we will all be back here tuesday night. full coverage of all the election results, as we said, online all night long from 7:00 to 2:00 a.m. with a primetime special on the whole network at 10:00 eastern. that's all for us right now. thanks for sharing part of your sunday with us. check out "world news tonight," and i'll see you monday on "gma." world news tonight," and i'll see you monday on "gma."