we are back on this decision night in america. it is 8:00 in the east. one of the biggest moments of the night as polls have just closed in a slew of states. i columbia. let's take you through where things stand right now. florida, we have been watching that raw vote come in. right now too close to call in florida. pennsylvania. another big one. battleground state. too early to call. pennsylvania too early to call. new hampshire. too early to call. now we have hey bunch of states here in which there are projected winners starting with alabama. we project that donald trump

the projected winner. delaware, will also go to hillary clinton. district of columbia to hillary clinton. illinois, her home state goes to hillary clinton. as well as the state of maryland. and massachusetts also in the clinton column. mississippi, we projected donald trump wins in mississippi. new jersey, to clinton. oklahoma the projected winner donald trump. rhode island, hillary clinto and tennessee, donald trump. let's look at the count right now in the race to 270. at this hour, based on the projections, clinton stands with 75, trump with 66. 66 in the race to 270. now, a couple others we want to mention right now. we are watching -- maine. too early -- actually. looking at missouri up there. but too early. maine is too early. but, clinton is leading there in

sorry. my bad there. missouri was too early. we got trump is leading there. the colors begin to fill in. the race to 270. savannah guthrie. watch big senate races. >> yeah, promise you a cliffhanger. the democrats are trying to wrest control. they have a pick up. one seat into their corner. they need four if hillary clinton tammy duckworth congress woman senator from illinois. displace the incumbent. mark kirk, widely believed to be the most vulnerable in come come -- incumbent. tammy duckworth. wounded warrior. mark kirk one of thepub -- republicans to distance himself, after trump questioned impartiality of a judge that had mexican heritage. one of first. as we have seen in so many

tammy duckworth, the democrat in the race tried to tie kirk to trump as much as possible. a deep blue state. the president's home state. so not a big shocker. but, if you are keeping score at home, we hope you are, the democrats have netted one. >> lot's bring in now -- our panel. james carville remains with us. we welcome in friend, hugh hewitt, host of the "hugh hewitt" show on salem radio network. >> portman is re-elected. a campaign built on civility, hard nosed politics, james did when he first within a state race in pennsylvania. educate the the country about the opioid epidemic, takes more lives than cash crashes do. love the fact that he has gone back. good signs out of indiana for todd young. that would mean two new war veterans in the senate. senator-elect duckworth and

combat veterans. >> good you brought that up. lost vietnam vets. gap with little military. >> jason kantur. >> tom cotton. >> dan sullivan. >> dan sullivan. now starting to see the new generation, tom. >> the fact is this generation -- very impressed with. because they have come back and they say we want to be involved in public life. they're doing it not just by running for office. but they have got all kinds of foundations going on. they're running off to south america, africa, got a projects going there. because they're mission oriented. they were trained so well in the military. they came back. they wanted to use the skill that they were trained with there. and my own hope is that we can expand that for young people, the same kind of military training that they get, you can do in public service and other ways as well. and give them something to shoot for. the millenials are going to be the fastest growing, most educate the. most entrepreneurial generation we have ever had in this country. and we don't want them on outside looking in. we got to get them into the

actually. interru interrupt. kellyann conway. great to see you. >> hi, lester. >> tell me what it is like. you have done everything you can do. now you like the rest of the country are waiting. what is it like? what are you seeing in the numbers so far? >> high energy here. i just was with mr. trump on my way down here. he is watching the returns. and we have a whole digital and data war room, not atypical. we are getting many different inputs from all across the country. yi 270. we feel really good about the fact that we have kept this race very competitive with a political veteran who many advantages and a ton more money than we do. and i just think that the movement that donald trump has built has been able to grow the party in a very different way, be more pro worker, little less elitist. frankly a part that really represents change and not the status quo, we haven't always been able to claim that mantel.

put up the florida numbers. show you. we have it too close to call. but clinton with a 49-48 lead. what are you seeing in the number does it worry you? is there a path without florida? >> we have seen the same thing with our internal polling in florida, lester, we never had donald trump or hillary clinton at 50% in any of the polls. that's happening. not because the other party candidates were growing their electoral vote. they weren' shrinking in the case of a jill stein or gary johnson in most states. it is really just how divided the country and the states are. florida is always a very tight, even in, in the year 2000, all came done to florida. when you look back, george w. bush had been the nominee for a couple year. cleared the field for him. he had the entire republican infrastructure behind him. all the elected officials. his brother was the governor of the state. he within by 527 votes. went all the way to the supreme

of a contest florida always is. we are hopeful as the the panhandle, closes they vote a whole extra hour because they're an hour behind time zone wise. that we will be able to catch up with her. hillary clinton thanked a big early vote in florida. but we saw that, mitt romney was losing early vote in florida by 167,000 votes or so. we cut that number almost in half to about 88,000. >> do you envy her >> i don't envy much about her. i would say they have a sophisticated ground game. running for president for eight years sense she lost last time. one could argue she should have put us away a long time ago. you have the ground game, all the money, all the king's horses, all the king's men, all the current sitting president who is incredibly popular and first lady incredibly popular, a former president who is popular just happens to be your husband,

i think the great reluck tangs -- reluctance, to go there with hillary clinton, who says if i am one of 70% of americans who want change, take in a different direction, how can i vote for hillary clinton? are has been a great reluctance. >> we have a call in the senate race. marco rubio, projected winner in florida. what do you take from that? >> i think that's terrific. a great senator. and, florida is looky to have him. he would work very president donald trump. so, i'm glad he got back in the race. and i am very happy that floridians put him over the top. >> kellyann. this is chuck. interesting to seat performance between donald trump and marco rubio in florida. basically overperforming you by three points. a good 150,000 votes more than donald trump. was rubio a help to you? is this a case where -- you're

helped -- helped pull you across the finish line in florida? or how do you read it? >> well a great ticket to have trump rubio on the same ticket. ill tells people that they're two people who want to improve upon obamacare, they're two people who want to defeat radical terrorism, create economic growth, more jobs. and they're very similar in many ways. certainly policywise. we would hope, perhaps he can help us. i do, i back to an earlier point though, chuck, too. there are senate particularly governor races to night where we are running ahead of the candidates in the states. hasn't been a lot of talk about that. talk about the reverse many time. in the four states that have governor races in the last polls we were ahead of republican gubernatorial candidates. we look to think we are helping some of those. >> kellyann. great to have you on. thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> katie tur at trump headquarters in new york. katie, what do you have? >> hey there, lester. spoke with a gop source in ohio, high level source tells me they

to the wire in ohio. but they do have a bit of good news. they believe that donald trump didn't come in with such a deficit the way romney did in early voting. they believe that he could potentially make good numbers up in two counties. west ohio and -- the clinton team on the other hand, is also feeling quite good about the state. a state that donald trump visited 26 times. a state that he was leading with many, many of the polls to say that they started to feel very confident in. but now the saying that they are feeling pretty confident as well. they're optimistic. they're saying that no one wins in ohio. without putting in the work. without a ground game. i spoke to my gop source. asked them. what sort of ground game did donald trump have in addition to the rnc. the trump campaign heavily relying on the rnc ground game effort. the source said, i have no idea. again a race that is very, very, very close. and that gop source believes it

night, that potentially they went be able to make a call tonight. maybe well into tomorrow as well. lester. >> all right. right now we have it down as too close to call. katie tur. thank you very much. talk about it if you can. republicans coming home you. were one that a few weeks ago you were calling for donald trump to leave the race. what transpired? >> well he didn't. i wanted him to withdraw. i think mike pence would have won easily tonight. he didn't. he is running. amazed to see donald trump wracking up states on the electoral college map that go down in history. never thought he had a prayer of getting nomination. never thought we would be talking about this tonight. he changed the issue set in the race. but he is running behind the senators. i want to go back to that. significant where there are portman is a lot ahead of him in ohio. rubio is called. put florida away. and, and todd young is probably doing better in indiana. mike pence. if dr. joe heck gets the same

that rubio got over donald trump, joe heck could be the next senator, dr. general joe heck in nevada. >> going to say interestingly enough. rob portman thought at the beginning that trump would help him. down in that corner of ohio. appalachia, comes together with west virginia and kentucky. and in the end, then, portman was helping pull trump. >> consider this, guys. there may be a presidential, somebody who ran for the presidential nomination who will be giving the victory speech >> interesting. maybe the only one who ran for president this cycle. >> the senate, getting back into the race as well. may have saved the senate for the republicans. >> little marco as he was called by the man who is at the top of the ticket. and, so it is sweet revenge for him. >> president obama went to florida. shamed marco rubio by name. how do you call some one in the primary, a con artist, and say you are supporting him. the direct quote from the president, come of on, man.

asking kellyann conway will we have coat tails for donald trump at the top of the ticket. >> we have seen nothing surprising or nothing significant in projections. i think that will change in an hour. i advise people to stick around. going to be different an hour from now. right now everything that we have seen is not surprising, imminently predictable. >> stay with us. a lot going on. we'll check in. very interesting exit polls you will want to see our decision night in america coverage i'd lioh hey! i'm just keeping the seat warm. but not for the president. for you! you can be president of whatever you want. like president of your own salon... i look good. or your kid's little league team...foul ball! or president of whatever this is! get the domains, websites, and 24/7 personal support to be awesome online. get your dot com domain at godaddy dot com.

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outside view of the crowd on democracy plaza on this big, big night. hallie jackson in the newsroom. she and her team digging into the exit polling. >> lester, here is what we know.

president-elect of the united states tomorrow morning. half of americans are going to wake up with really deep concerns about the candidate. take a look. people who voted for hillary clinton. 20% of them voted for her, because they didn't like donald trump. that's twice what we saw back in 2012. same goes and even more extreme for, donald trump voters. nearly 30% of them voted for donald trump because they didn't like hillary clinton. that's three times what we saw so, call this the nose holder's vote if you will. somebody casting their ballot, but holding their nose and doing it. talk about a couple key swing states. talking about all night. the first one, florida. here's the breakdown so far, remember these are the early exit polls. of hispanic voters. see they're breaking more for hillary clinton. she is outperforming where barack obama was back in 2012. donald trump underperforming where mitt romney was. last take a peek at ohio. specifically union voters.

early exits. donald trump easy message on trade, on the economy seems to be resonating. we see that here. back in 2012, more union households voted for the democrat, but, donald trump has reversed that trend in ohio. he actually is appealing to more union voters about half of them. he is outperforming hillary clinton by 6% points there. interesting stuff given donald trump's message throughout much of the campaign was aimed at working class voters. lester. >> going to get right on to the kristen welker, hillary clinton headquarters here at the javits senator. >> secretary clinton fighting to make history tonight. watching returns with her family at a hotel in new york. top campaign officials telling me they're feeling confident heading into tonight. feeling good about a robust ground game they have built up. one official telling me they have knocked on 2 million doors today alone. they also feel good about the

one official saying, she ended it on the exact note that she was hoping to. arguing that she will be a unifying force if she elected. and talking about why she will be the most qualified president despite all the divisive rhetoric and e-mail controversy which dogged her until the end. the states that they're watching closely. michigan reliably blue state. donald trump making a serious play. north carolina of course florida. she is preparing two speeches tonight but hoping she will deliver a vic lester. >> kristen. peter alexander at the trump headquarters at the hilton down the block. what are you seeing there, peter? >> lester, good evening. i spoke to a top source close to donald trump. feeling good. touting epic numbers. turnout specifically in white republican counties in states like michigan and new hampshire right now. this source close to donald trump is now predicting victories in states like ohio, iowa, north carolina, new hampshire, and the second district of maine.

they also look at the lower than there mall african-american turnout in michigan and north carolina they think will have a benefit. the bottom line this source says right now is i am going to be realistic. you have got to be lucky. this race is certainly going to be a lot closer than most americans may have thought. lester. >> peter, thank you. chuck, over to the map here. >> look, the turnout, the fact is everybody has higher turnout. i want to give you an example of how trump territory is turning out in much bigger numbers. here in florida. of hernando county. up here. mitt romney won the county by eight points. you see here the total vote over there. going to show you here. total vote here, you can see. you know, about 87,000 total on this. now, let me take you to 2016. map here. trump is winning by a whopping 29 points. there is more vote. that is good news.

let me take you. >> yeah. >> he increased the number overall. and getting 30% more of 10,000 new voters. take you to miami-dade. 80% in. they're still 20% of the vote. add this up, you have, basically a million votes right now. in miami-dade. they didn't top 800, didn't top 900,000 during barack obama. she is winning by 30 points. barack obama won it by 24. point is good news for both of she is winning bigger among more voters. he is winning big among a smaller group. >> obsession with florida on election night continues. >> we need to get to a break. take a quick break. lot more coverage. race to 270 electoral votes under way. our decision night in america coverage continues here on nbc.

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we have got poll closings in another 7:30 or so. as we look at the map there on, on arkansas. will be the next poll closing. look at the map there. i want to talkriefly if i can, savannah, chuck, about every four years we are confronted with the way we elect presidents, this electoral college. the 270 number. florida put it in our face. and we always visit the idea.

>> the constitution says so. that doesn't make it any less odd. for a lot of people watching the election and shows like ours. they're hearing about national polls. that's not how we elect a president in this country. as we learn distinctly in 2000. win the popular vote but not win the electoral college. so basically, our founders set it up. that each state has a certain amount of electoral votes. it's based on population. you have got to reach that magic number of 270. >> why you may not have seen nd >> it is. there is a bug in the system. you have an even number of electors, you can win in a tie. way too easy to win in a tie. ridiculous to create a constitutional crisis under that. >> lester don't get chuck started on the electoral college. >> used to be a big defender of it. i will tell you this. go explain it to somebody overseas. and when you no longer, the great american democracy, you can't tell them it is one person, one vote. it is like, well, it is, let me. you are just like by the time

done. it is very difficult. when it is difficult to explain your own voting system to somebody overseas, maybe you need a new one. >> the playing field we have, right, james? >> look. it may not be the system we want. but the system we got. that's what we are going to have tonight. going to go through with it. >> that's huh we roll as we say. stay with us. polls about to close in the state of arkansas. bill clinton served as governor before winning the white house himself. we'll have that and more on decision night in america coverage right here on nbc. >> good evening. the polls in wisconsin open for about 35 more minutes on had historic evening. >> long lines have been reported

there were sporadic. but most things have gone relatively trouble-free. >> time to get caught up. rebecca close-up is checking things out in waukesha. >> we want to start with james benson in janesville covering the first district congressional race. charles? >> wisconsin waiting to see if it goes red or blue tonight. we are close to the polls closing. and should get some results in the next couple of hours. no real drama down here for expected to win re-election, but the big question is who will he be working with, a president clinton or a president trump. the polling in wisconsin indicates that it looks like wisconsin will stay a traditional blue state, but with the polling showing numbers indicating a heavy voter turnout throughout the state, people are going to wait to see what those final numbers look like. we're going to send it to coreen zell, who is at one of the

indication how the vote go is going. >> we're at river trail elementary school on milwaukee's northwest side, and we were told by the election commissioner that this is one of the four busiest polling places in the city, but take a look at the line. it's not there. the election inspector here said the busiest time was 7:00 on, but they got those voters through the line. more than 1400 have shown up here today to cast their ballot. when i said, how did you do efficient. now, i want to go to my colleague, rebecca rebecca klopf, who is in waukesha. >> waukesha residents, same thing. there were long lines today but right now, take a look, not many lines at all. actually, the biggest bit of excitement that we had was a little bit ago, a woman actually passed out in line, but she couldn't have done it in a better spot. we're actually inside the waukesha fire department, ems crews were able to help her,

at one point tonight the line was running about 45 minutes for certain wards, but they have been able to clear out all those people. now we just have the last of the stragglers coming in to get their vote in before 8:00 tonight. >> thank you very much. a lot of people have voted early : >> and we are live as well with both campaigns in the crucial race for the u.s. senate. a live picture from the election night headquarters for senator ron johnson, this is first republican elected in wisconsin since 1984. >> reporter: right now we'll head west to middleton for a live look at the if he is tichts at the russ fine goaled election night gathering, trying to become only the third former senator since 1956 to return to the senate after losing re-election. katie is there and she will bring you reports throughout the evening. >> let's take a live picture now

courthouse, and earlier we saw coreen zell out there on the north side where it looked like everybody had already voted. obviously here in the heart of the city, people still in line, participating in our democracy. >> a lot of people got up early to cast votes. polls in wisconsin are scheduled to close in about 32 minutes. >> at 8:00 p.m. we are told if you are in line by 8:00, you will indeed be allowed to cast your ballot. >> a reminder, our next update comes your we'll take a short break and return you to nbc news election night coverage.

we are back with coverage. we have a call to make. this is control of the house of representatives. nbc news projects that republicans will retain control of the house of representatives. now quickly take you outside. where we have got a call from the state of arkansas. and as we move up the building, nbc news projects that donald trp will win in the state of arkansas. of course the state that hillary clinton was for many, many years the first lady. we're back with our panel right

over -- >> nicole and i. >> he is -- you can tell. >> that's right. >> she worked in florida before she worked for president bush. back in, back in the day when we were both young bucks. we were just both sitting here, what's out in florida. 91% in. i think trump is leading by 60,000 votes. and -- we're both noting, like why is the clinton campaign feeling good. what is out. gainesville has then't come in. college town. you have a lot half of the broward vote hasn't come in. half of palm beach. and 15% of miami-dade. and as we showed you, she is winning miami-dade by numbers that are landslide like for miami-dade. >> why do we care so much about florida? because for trump it is a, close to a must win as there is. it's not that he can't put together 270 votes without florida. becomes exceedingly difficult.

>> ptsd. look at tom. i can't go there. >> talking about. >> you have seen the movie. >> florida, florida, florida. at one point. bill dalien one ear, karl rove in the other ear on the phone saying what is going on. if you don't know. how do i know? >> back to 2000. >> florida, florida, florida. the late tim russert, miss on nights like this. >> could be. >> the bigger story is both, both bases came out. you know, the fact is everything it just may be she has a bigger base. >> and just a record keep now. ohio too close to call. florida, too close to call. pennsylvania too early to call. so those are big ones hanging out there right now. we want to go to andrea mitchell. hillary clinton headquarters here in new york. are they -- are they feeding into any of this. watching these numbers, the way we are? >> you can imagine how much they're watching it. boiler room, war room, looking over at peninsula hotel.

in on the speech that they hope they will be delivering. two versions as we said. one is a victory speech. and the so speech writers were in, in the hotel. with both bill and hillary imagine having both editing your speech. now the speech writers are going back to work making some changes. so we have all been edited by editors and producers. pretty high powered team of bill and hillary clinton editing. the thing to report is that my democratic sources, this is not democratic party source in michigan telling me, they're getting a little nervous in michigan. because the democratic areas of detroit and flint are not showing the kind of vote that they had wanted to see. obviously early. but raining. they're a little worried about this michigan could be tight. as you know. both hillary clinton and donald trump were there yesterday. it would be far more important for donald trump's path, his, he really wants to flip a blue state. not critical for clinton. but of, still like to win michigan.

surprising upset by bernie sander, trader to a big factor there against clinton and for trump. lester. >> andrea. thank you. joining us from clinton headquarters, former michigan governor, jennifer granholm. great to have you on. >> great to be on. >> watched you on msnbc, earlier today, you couldn't wipe the smile off your face. >> i know, it is democracy. >> earlier now, you are starting to see raw vote totals campaign level of confidence right now? >> i think we feel really good. because as chuck was saying, there are still huge sectors of electorate that have not come in. a lot of that, are our people, whether it is broward county, or, you know in michigan. as you know in many of these states. that we count on. a lot of the urban areas come in later than the rural areas. so we are feeling really good still. >> all right.

being a must win. that is according to the trump folks. but without it he may, made you defend pennsylvania. look where the clinton campaign ended yesterday. how do you feel about pennsylvania? >> good about pennsylvania. in fact, we think -- between pennsylvania and virginia, and north carolina. again, it is still early. you have got to see the rest come in. we are feeling really good the ground game we have mustered. what we are hearing on the ground. anecdotally, and in the numbers. we know what is out there the everybody just take, on my side, take a deep breath. it is going to be okay. and by the way, can we not all just celebrate that it is record turnout in democracy. people really love this country and care about it. >> come on something has to be making you nervous right now, what is it? >> michigan always makes me nervous. because that's my, that's my state. and i am concerned about the

but i do know that a lot of that is made up for by the very large, for exam pull, arab-american community that is in michigan and deerborn. president clinton visited. there is huge turnout in that community. if there is a diminution in votes in detroit, we have made up for it, i think with the votes in the arab-american community, the latino community, and frankly we had banked, 50,000 of the absentee votes. so we stil close. closer than anybody wants it to be. but i feel very good about michigan anyway. still makes me nervous though. >> governor, always good to talk to you. >> until it is in. >> thank you for joining us. savannah, senate call here. >> state of indiana, deep red. republican hold for the senate. we have congressman young todd young going to the senate, evan bayh, former senator from indiana, vying to got his seat back. what an interesting story.

a battle ground. for a moment it seemed it might be. because of the strength of evan bayh's connection to the state of indiana. lot of democrats were excited. hey, maybe make this competitive. >> -- an outsider? >> too much of an insider. way too much insider. somebody who lost his indiana roots. somebody who barely had an address in indiana. >> couldn't remember the correct address. got a court avenue confused. >> deep indiana roots. it wasn't enough. so we see tha that's a red state. stays that way. doesn't alter our ultimate senate map. we have one democratic pickup on the record i believe. so far. but one of the races we were closely watching, it had potential to be competitive. >> interesting thing about, young/bayh, got whipsawed by his prior job. working for the u.s. chamber of commerce. came out against him. been away a while. assumed he would go back. >> he is a democrat from another era. >> okay.

party. he thought, "oh, look, donald trump is unpopular, maybe i can sneak back into the senate." >> never forget when he left the senate he, he penned this op-ed. you and i were covering the white house then if i don't love congress. i think there are better ways to serve. here in 2016. trying to get back in. no dice. >> no dice. >> mentioned karl rove. this is don rumsfeld's known/unknown. republicans hearing from all over the co seat and marco rubio and down ballot races. >> hallie jackson and exit polling and what women voters are saying. hallie something we continue to focus on in the race. >> lester, started talking, a year and three month as go. the first primary debate for republicans. the first question to donald trump about his comments about women. here on election night. take a look. 51% of voters across the country

trump's treatment of women. watch what happens to this purple section of the pie when we dive into how this breaks out. of those voters who say they were bothered a lot, look at how it breaks down. eight in ten say they voted for hillary clinton over donald trump. not particularly surprising when you look at the fact that they say they're bothered by women. certainly notable that hillary clinton made her closing argument, part of it on trump's treatment of women. and for these voter, lester that is something that has resonated. >> i want to continue on what you are talking kate snow joins us from king of prussia, pennsylvania. talking with women voters. kate. >> hi, lester. we are in the collar counties outside of philadelphia. the suburban county. outside of philly. and these counties since 1976, have really predicted the way the state of pennsylvania will, will go. so that's why we are here. we got a lot of trump supporters here. behind me. wanted to talk to a few women over here. all hillary clinton supporters.

jennifer, you voted republican until recently. today you voted for hillary clinton. >> definitely. >> why? >> because she is -- knowledge bum. the most qualified canned date running for office. and i agree with a lot of things she stands for. >> we were talking about the exit polling. a lot of it is showing that women, many women were turned off by donald trump. is that part of what, what motivated your vote? >> definitely. i think that the derogatory things he said, and to the medi h and also, reproductive rights are important to me. sheila and vicky, wearing white and lace, what's that about? >> callout to the suffragettes who called for the original women's votes. such an historic day having a female candidate for a major party. we wanted to kind of recognize that. >> if she wins tonight, you told me you are in your 30s. you are millenials. what does that mean for you if

off? >> it is just such an important event. i've will be so impressed if she wins and so happy. because of what i value. and, she really -- you know, epitomizes that and can speak well on that. just an incredible candidate. >> thank you guys so much for sharing a little bit. appreciate it. you know, lester the thing is, as i said, these counties really can be important in the way that pennsylvania goes. we're checking in with all the offices here in terms of the four counties. turn out does seem to be pretty high according to both the democrats that i talked to and the repca talked to. talking long lines. i just talked to the delaware county, chair of the democratic party who thinks they're going to be counting votes here for a long time. after the official poll closing. polls closed here at 8:00. they think there are people in line, lester. they may be at it until late, late tonight. >> yeah, suspect so. kate snow. thanks again. pennsylvania. too early to call. we'll take a quick break. check in with more of our

states. what they're seeing and hearing on the ground. when our decision night in america continues here on nbc. alexa, where's the nearest jewelry store? alexa, wikipedia wolf spider. [alexa]: wolf spiders are robust and agile hunters with excellent eyesight. alexa, how many minutes are in 18 years.

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>> as we come back to our election center from a break. watching mauing marco rubio, ma comments to the crowd with his family.

map here. he is trying to figure out where things stand as we await states. >> a little bit. we need to remind people here, virginia, we moved too close to call. now, the numbers have been creeping up. still a lot of northern virginia vote still to go. as you know, loudon, as loudon goes, so goes things. that's the good news for clinton. but as we told you, and i want to make sure see if i get campbell county here just right. get this this was a question whether he would do well with evangelicals. the numbers are big for trump in trump territory too. those two. nicole you were sharing with me. steve shales who ran florida for obama in '08 and '12. everybody's vote totals have been shattered in the state of florida. record turnout in florida in the red county and in the blue counties. now we'll see how this balances out. explains why, we are seeing, some of the battleground states.

lot of people felt, she is doing well in northern virginia. he is doing well in trump country. >> all waiting with badd breath for when polls close in michigan. clinton folks were rushed in to defend what they felt was a sizable lead. kevin tibbles, a trump watch party in grand rapids. how are they feeling tonight? >> listening to you, lester, talking about how michigan all of a sudden play here. people here in western michigan which is where grand rapids is, you are right that hillary clinton campaign had to come in here yesterday. but of course, being a gop rally here this evening, they were all out after midnight last night. because donald trump made one of his final stops here. grand rapids all of a sudden is on the map with regards to this election campaign, lester. they were also listening to the fact that, in the democratic

people are saying the turnout was not very good. while here in western michigan, which there are very strong republican pockets, like the one i am speaking to you from, they're saying the lines were down the street when they got there this morning. they are very sort of encouraged by what they -- say, they saw on the streets here in michigan today, lester. >> all right, stay in the middle east -- middle east? the midwest. kevin, thank you very much. kelly o'donnell. pa jamesville, wisconsin. midwest. hey, kelly. >> good evening, lester. this is unusual. house speaker, paul ryan is in the room here. he is over my left shoulder milling about with some of the guest whose have come to his headquarters tonight. for paul ryan, really a three-level night. his own house race which he expects to win easily, kind of a position for the future of the party. will he be and continue to be the highest ranking republican in elected office.

second spot. and what happens next for the congressional majority? it is expected the house will hold its majority. what will happen on the senate side. and how will congress have a partnership with the new president whomever that is. but it is a bit unusual. i guess it is a since of how paul ryan expects his own personal night as a candidate to go. he is here in the room. greeting supporters. hugs directly behind me. talking with folks who have been a part of his life jamesville. i am told he will speak fairly early this evening. reflect on his own race. not wait for the whole night to resolve itself. he'll have plenty to say about all that in the next few days. lester. >> paul ryan. and what his future is like. no matter how the thing shakes out tonight. >> nobody gramled more publicly or painfully with their endorsement of donald trump than speaker ryan. people who were long-time, paul ryan, staffers and advisers and

out of the presidential race in '12, romney ticket, remained advisers hoped he would take a stand against a nominee many establishment republicans thought stood for everything that paul ryan had worked for. paul ryan is one of the architects of modern conservative policymaking. he is an expert on the intricacies of budget making and conservative solutions for education and poverty. whatever you think of the idea, he is one of the architects for the conservative thinkers group. when he endorsed donald trump it was a set back to the never trump wing of the gop, which at that point had unrealistic expectations. he has the job of being the top wrangler and the gop caucus was pro trump. reality he is dealing with whether trump wins or loses. a lot of rumors, just rumors, sort of an undercurrent,

hand wringing establishment republicans that he may be in a little bit of jeopardy in terms -- >> another thing. especially the other thing about speaker ryan is that he has not given up his own presidential aspirations. that had to be a conflict in his mind. play the part of leader of the house republicans, try to keep that intact. same time, keep his eye on the far horizon. if trump does go down, then he is obviously going to be the front-runner. if trump wins tonight, would we still believe there is a that. then, paul ryan has got a handful of trouble. not just with the people who are in the house with him. but with the new president of the united states. as well. >> don't you think he has trouble no matter who wins tonight. >> no win proposition. >> it is. if trump loses there will be a lot of people who look hard at paul ryan and other establishment republicans, saying where were you if you had been more enthusiastic for our nominee maybe we would be having a different result tonight. >> paul ryan maybe has the worst

this tightness. >> we are going to take a break. a lot coming up. in a moment take a lay of the land. where does the map stand? which states are still in play? which poll closings are upcoming. stay with us our decision night in america coverage continues here on nbc. [vo] wells fargo is making changes to make things right. first, all customers who have been impacted will be fully refunded. second, a confirmation will be sent when new personal or small business checking, savings or sales goals for our retail bankers to ensure your interests are put first. we're taking action.

>> 7:30, more polls closing. arizona.

want to go downstairs right now. jolene kent out on democracy plaza. a pretty sizable crowd now, watching our coverage, watching these numbers come in. jolene. >> lester, that's right. out here on democracy plaza, where situation here is very electric. i want to take you through the crowd here. show you some of the voters. we have a lot of clinton voters over here. we have trump supporters behind us. what we find is about, 50% of this country, 60% of this countryie country will be divided when we wake up tomorrow. and so, this is an area. oh, oh no. we have got a voter from arkansas as well. lester, what we want to till you is, yeah, right here. okay. so here in democracy plaza. a lot of action. a lot of voters from all over the country here. and we'll send it back to you in studio. >> jolene. thank you. if you are in the neighborhood

big tv's there. be careful when you walk. we mentioned this coming hour -- arizona, new mexico. still watching florida. >> want to show you really quick. florida. less than 100%. 100,000 votes. georgia don't have a lot of vote in. north carolina, you can see here, clinton narrowly ahead. still a lot in. and virginia too close to call. wow. the backbone states of the battleground are all too close. >> help you didn't make a dinner going to be here a while. >> we are going to be here. >> ]. fast. >> polls about to close, minutes from now. a lot of news to got to. don't want to miss a moment. get >> our decision 2016 coverage continues here on today's tmj4. >> carole: the polls in wisconsin close in just a few

picture from the building in downtown milwaukee, where a lot of people showed up to vote after work. anybody right here who is in line will be allowed to vote as long as they're in line before 8:00 p.m. >> charles benson has been covering the candidates, among them speaker paul ryan. >> carole: live from janesville with what's happening there. charles? >> house speaker paul ryan has just arrived, he's with his wife and three children. he's just over my right shoulder right now, talking to a lot of folks here, taking pictures with heard the breaking news about the house. and that the house, according to nbc news, will stay in republican hands. and so that was the expectation. the republicans have a 60 seat majority. not sure if they'll hold that grave a majority but the good news for paul ryan is that he will hold, at least republicans will hold the house. the big question for paul ryan tonight is, who will be in the white house.

we're seeing in a number of battleground states that it's too close to call and that's a pretty interesting development here at this point, now with the polls closing in wisconsin, what will they say, what will the numbers show about can they project wisconsin. we know wisconsin has gone blue in the last seven presidential races. we know hillary clinton was up in the polls. and so it looks like, historically, wisconsin could go blue again. but there are a number of other states here that paul ryan and others will be looking and what the political landscape will look like after this election. we know that it's been a divisive election. we know it's been a polarizing election. so what kind of things will we hear tonight from people like paul ryan, who is expected to address the crowd here later tonight? back to you in the studio. >> we'll hear from you later, and paul recently. thank you very much, charles. >> the wisconsin polls are now just minutes away from closing. >> while we wait for the results, steve is at the data

numbers stand nationally. >> we're getting our numbers from the associated press. they're a little more conservative than nbc news. they have donald trump with 60 electoral votes in his pocket, hillary clinton with 48. we'll get in about three minutes here, 14 more states about to close and another 156leoral votes in the pool. that includes us right here in wisconsin. what will happen at that point is, we are going to start diving into the data here on a county by county basis. we're going to be able to show you where the vote is coming in across the state of wisconsin to see if the places we expect to be republican strongholds remain republican strongholds and if the democrats were able to get out the vote in places where they need to do very well, dane county, milwaukee county, also further in the western part of the state, and of course the democrats back in president obama's first election, they were able to get brown county up in green bay. they lost it in 2012.

again this time around. and we'll see how the votes come in from there. our numbers are a little bit different than what we're seeing on nbc. i hope everybody can make the transition with us as we go through the night. >> the key has been turnout. we're taking a live picture of paul ryan mingling with his supporters tonight. obviously eagerly awaiting any information he can find out about what's going on and who he'll be working with in the next few years. >> and we will be building where the lines continue just before they close, but if you're in line, you're

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we are back now from our election center here at 30 rock in r new york city. it's or9:00 in the east, 6:00 i the west. polls have just closed in 14 take a deep breath as we take you through it. nbc news projects hillary clintonct will win in her home state of new york. and now we have a slew of trump calls starting with texas. trump is thes. projected winner. in kansas, trump wins. louisiana, trump is the projected winner. nebraska, donald trump. we project that north dakota will go to donald trump as well

those in the trump camp. let's look at the 270 now, the race to 270. here's where they stand. donald trump at 137 electoral votes. 104, based nton with on those b projections. some other places we're watching, michigan, we've talked about how close things are, too close to call right now. arizona, another important state where clinton has made some ground up, too early to call. colorado, too early. minnesota, right now we have it listed as moving over to new mexico right now, too early but clinton leads in new mexico. andco finally, wisconsin, wheree visited in the last half hour, it's too early to call. take a look again now at florida. florida is too close to call. look at the. numbers there. very, very close. a differenceos of roughly 140,0 votes. >> we will not call this before tonight. >> you think florida will keep us from --

tonight. please put up the ohio board because the margin, it's so ridiculously tight that it's sort of emblematic of the battleground states right now. >> 2700 votes. >> 2700 votes there in ohio. still a lot of vote out there but 37% reporting. iin feel that that 2700 tells y, virginia, which we'll be here a while, north carolina -- >> let's look at north carolina. all right. in north carolina. >> and that'sor with 3 million votes cast so far. >> the bottom line is, turnout has been shattered on both basis. we've been telling you this. blue counties, red counties. >> and there's the red and blue states as they stand right now based on the projections. joining our panel is eugene robinson, political analyst with "the washington post." what do you want to say about all ofy this?

we're going to be up for a while. >> we have talked soo much in te last several weeks, the last several months that the polls have been relatively stable in all of this. > the polls were relatively stable thatel showed hillary clinton with a lead but a slim lead and things could break either way and what we're seeing tonight is what we've been talking about all year, how divided the country is, how acrimonious may not be the right word but it's close. this election was -- >> those are the states that trump hast won so far. >> to the extent to which it was a base election and now we see both bases totally mobilized. >> we use that word split but you're talking about people seeing throughe an entirely different set of lens. i mean, we covered the political conventions and we heard two just incredibly different visions of this country.

interesting observationll comin from the trump campaign a couple days ago where he said, you know, it's funny, we never are in the same place even when we're in the same state, meaning the clinton people and he goes, i've never been in a race where there's one voter they are fighting over. >> exactly. >> it was not that. they were fighting between voters whoht were thinking abou voting and not voting. that's what we're seeing here, is sort of a balance by extreme. >> but that's the difference between where d the traditional battleground was. i mean, everything yourn primaries you're going for the base but in the middle it's the swing voters and we're all trying to persuade the same people and this didn't just start with thisus year but it's really about turning out your base, getting the most number of people who support you to these polls. and just to do polls 101, yes, we've seen remarkable consistency in the poll and, chuck, back me up here, one thing polls o need to do is mak ane educated guess about who wil

>> the other x factor is -- and we've said this all along -- it's a country that's not deeply in love with d either one of the candidates so they were moving back and forth a lot, especially in the last week or so, we saw hillary clinton way out in the polls and then comey makes his original announcement, he goes down, and then he makes the announcement on sunday and she seems to be making a comeback in the last 48 hours and then as we're seeing tonight, something that looks to be very tight as we go deeper into the hours would have to. so i think it's a real manifestation of the country saying it's got to be one or the other, i'mo not sure it's goin to make a big difference to me. they are theirme core groups. donald trump has his passionate supporters. so doess she. the bulk of the country is still angry and the big issue for most americans is change, shake it up, how are we going to change this country to get itng workin again and neither one of them

in a persuasive way. >> let's go to florida right now. kerry sanders is and things are tight there, kerry. >> reporter: they are really hanging on to the edge here. we're here at the darren soto election headquarters and he turns out to be the first puerto rican-american electe latins have supported him who have since w moved to the unite states. for those looking at the different hispanic groups who may have influence today, remember, puerto ricans are born with a u.s. b pass board, they comehe to the united states, if they decide to live here, they can register to revote. it turns out that there's been a swell of a hispanic votes in th state. it's too close, as you know, to call whether this is going to be a donald trump victory or a hillary clinton victory but the folks that i spoke to here just

are going to be crying. they will either be crying tears of happiness if hillary clinton wins in this state or they'll be crying tears of sadness if donald trump i wins. that's just a snapshot in one room in florida but a lot of people hanging on the edge right now. as chuck todd said, it's going to be ang long night before we know which way florida's going. >> i'm looking at the map right now and 92% is in. chuck is at that map right now. where are the going to come esfrom? >> i'm looking here. right now,. if you're the clintn people, you're very happy about broward county. there still appears right now this isow only early vote that essentially was dumped in. we expect about another 400,000 out of there. if she wins that by 40 points the way she's winning its here,i don't know if that quite makes up the gap. there is some miami-dade vote. not a lot.t. this has already shattered records here. there's still another 10% of the

in miami-dade county than we saw before. let me take you to hillsborough. this hasgh tightened up. it's clinton plus six. obamasi won it by a point. so this is something here to keep an eye on. soon look, there's a chunk of ve down here in south florida. but there's still a lot of trump country. we're sitting here and it's so -- you can't sit here and say for sure, 135,000 difference right there. i think she can get 100 out of it out of south florida. can she find another 36,000 somewhere else? we'llwh see. let me take you, by the way, to virginia. this is going to look very familiar to folks because we essentially have 68%. if you followed the virginia governor's race or obama/romney, she's closing the gap as the vote a totals come in. this is the big one.

vote. we have still something like 80% of the vote still to come80 in. it's going to be a big clinton county. this iss likely enough to put hr over the top but i can tell you this, we've been here before, brokaw brought up jim webb to me. it took until fairfax county until jim webb won the race and fairfax was counted until mcauliffe won. the pointwo is, until we see northern virginia vote, that you, virginia looks like it's back smack in the battleground and those bigtl leads were essentially a myth. >> andrea mitchell is at hillary clinton'sil headquarters here i new york where the crowd is certainly taking this in. there's been a lot of confidence at the clinton camp but there's got to be fingernail biting right now. >> reporter: you're right.

tim kaine, former senator as the running mate. they actually took money out of virginia, advertising. they were that solid,ad they thought, in virginia. this is going to be as close as it looks like it's going to be, that's not good news for them. broward county is their big hope. i was just talking to a top clinton official here who said we are s still waiting on browa, there's more votebr to come in t florida is obviously that close. nortro break in that the county board in durham county extended voting hours when there wasg some votig problems there. that's part of the research triangle where they knew they had a t solid vote to come in. still hoping on north carolina. michigan is making then nervous, not getting the vote out of flint. this thing is getting so close. you justlo showed the numbers i ohio as well. all of the information at your

nebraska, the projection for nebraska for trump and i checked. that's four out of five congressional districts. warren buffett mades. a promiseo hillary clinton when he endorsed her. he said, i am going to deliver omaha because nebraska is like maine where two congressional districts are counted separately. he said he's going to go door to door today in omaha turning out the vote. i wante to know what happened with omaha. is it going clinton or too close to c cal we were running the numbers. cannu we go back to michigan? is it a double-digit difference here? 71. 7171 difference.er and that's 12% in. 16 electoral votes at stake in michigan. the trump folks forcing the clinton folks to try to defend michigan and it's going to provide a certain amount of drama. katy tur, before i go to you, i want to bring in ohio. the word is. ohio is going to b

appears to be right now. trump right now with a lead and the difference of 162,000. katy has been covering the trump campaign from the very start and joins us now. what's the feeling inw. the roo? >> reporter: well, the feeling in the roomhe is obviously very exciting, as you can see behind me. the feeling atd trump headquarters and trump tower is very upbeat. they believe the longer this night t draws out, the better i is for them. you were talking about a few states that they've been paying close attention to. to be close is quite interesting because the trumpes campaign pulled out their efforts about three weeks ago and if you can hear me y better with the stick mike, pulled out their efforts from virginia three weeks ago. if it's close there, they are certainly going to feel good about that. ohio they put a lot of focus on. the gop believes it's going to be down to the wire in ohio. potentially they say they won't be able to call until tomorrow. but also michigan. that's the state that the trump campaign is really looking to after they get to their core

ohio and iowa. if they lockwa those up, they a going to look towardshe michiga. it's a state that they've been to 13 times since the convention. three times in this last weekend alone. it's where donald trump essentially ended his campaign.n he took the stage there at 12:30 this morning to a packed room of thousands of people that were stille streaming in as donald trump arrived. he left a little bit after 1:00. they believe that his job's message is going to cut across all demographics in they believe, chalso, that the african-american vote is not going v to turn out for hillary clinton in the same way that it turned out for barack obama. and they are saying to me that they have seen record turnout in a couple ofn towns in gop counties. they are pointing to that as a very good sign. they also are believing that there is flat turnout in flint, michigan. so the camp -- the trump camp is feeling quite upbeat now. they are n cautiously optimisti but feel that they have a chance

lester? >> katy tur, thank you. let's go to ohio. chris jansing is in cleveland watching that very tight race. chris? >> reporter: yeah. and both sides are very nervous, i can tell you this right now, and both feeling like they have an opportunity here. if you're going to watch what's going on,t' you've got to look where i'm standing, which is in cleveland. i spent the day at a polling place p there. it was very telling. there was a burst around lunchtime but in the morning when you would expect a lot of people, you'd expect a lot of people as folks go home from work, there was not a big turnout. the director of the elections board e here in cuyahoga county said i still think we'll get up around 67% but the reports that were coming in weren't that there were't lines, weren't tha there was any big last-minute rush and i will tell you, one thing to look o at from the exi polls is the economy. very important to people here in the rustbelt and who is better

clinton in the exitng polls by four points. i want bfo to tell you one anecl story as i was speaking with folks in this largely african-american voting place. iac said, are most of your fries andds family voting? and more than half in this unscientific survey said to me they knew people who weren't voting and i thought it might be about the tenor of the race. they saidra it wasn't that at a. they felt as african-americans that theca resurgence in the economy had notmp that they were not being served by washington. so watch this vote coming in in cuyahoga county and that reaction in an unexpected place. >> chrisex jansing, thanks. when we come back, we'll talk with senator rand paul who nbcho projects has been re-elecd in kentucky. our election night continues

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welcome back, decision night in america. look at the map. those are the battleground states. if i had to title this, there's a reason they call this the battleground states. >> they sure are. michigan, less than a thousand votes. virginia, basically we're looking at 3 percentage points and climbing. florida, less than a percentage point. ohio, now watch, let me take you to this one, 200 votes at this point. a difference there. let me take you down to north carolina. look at this one. we got about 20,000 votes out of more than 3 million cast. i'll take you back to florida one more time, as you can see, where, again, still waiting mostly for broward county. as soon as that gets in, we're going to feel comfortable going one way or another but it will take a long time.

this, about 100,000 vote difference. only 32% in. she's winning but not by big numbers. a lot of people thought colorado like virginia was somehow going to end up being out of the battleground. >> savannah, either side can feel -- it's suspended animation. >> i think there's real jitters setting in at the clinton headquarters and hope on the trump side. if you look at colorado and battlegrounds and yet these are two states that i think back in august the clinton campaign stopped really spending money in feeling l these were in the bag and when you look at polls recently from these states, they showed clinton with a healthy lead and look where we are right now. i mean, of course everything -- the caveats are there. we're waiting for some northern virginia counties that would be expected to go for clinton big and that may make all of the difference but i think what's incredible here is just how tight all of these races are. >> we're going to take a break

still too close to call. where things stand right now, who's ahead, don't go anywhere. our decision night in america

looking at democracy plaza here in new york city. there you see right now where things stand on the race to 270. donald trump with 137. hallie jackson in the newsroom with what else we're learning

polling. hallie? >> lester, we're here in the middle of our election center talking with our political unit and specifically talking with our pollsters. you look ready for me here. bill is one of our folks. bill, when we talk about this being a nail biter, what are you seeing in these places where it's too close to call? how much of a nail biter is it? >> it certainly is in a number of states and the reason is we've seen some of the largest divisions between urban america and rural america. donald trump is winning white college men in a margin we haven't seen since ronald reagan and hillary clinton is winning african-americans and latinos. there's two different americas and we're watching them fight each other to a draw in a few of these states in ways that, again, reflects enormous division, much bigger than we've normally seen. >> fred, turn around here in your chair.

is this an example of how divided the nation is? are we in for a night that's going to go past 3:00 a.m.? >> what i'm noticing in my study is an even bigger gender gap, that trump is doing better with male voters that romney did four years ago and mrs. clinton is doing slightly better with women voters than obama did four y yes ago which is making for a very tight election. >> freddie, bill, thank you. we'll chat more about these swing states of michigan and florida. this is our working newsroom. this is the engine room of our election center. the notebooks are out, the binders are out as these guys dig through the data. lester? >> hallie, thanks very much. one of the things we've not talked about a lot in this campaign is the historic nature of hillary clinton's campaign. she's not made a big deal about it but as we see her perform with women voters, how does it play? >> you know, it's very interesting because in 2008, one

make more of the historic nature of her candidacy the way that barack obama had with his candidacy as the first african-american. i think they dabbled in making it a possible appeal to voters but it never really caught on that way. if she were elected tonight, of course it would make history but i just don't see that as a point of emphasis in the campaign a be. >> we're going to take a short break. we'll be back more with nbc election control in a few minutes. >> the polls in wisconsin have now been closed for about 25 minutes but some people may still be waiting to cast their ballot after waiting in line.

>> carole: i'm carole meekins. nbc has been calling several states but they still say wisconsin is too close to call. >> george: we'll be taking a very early look at the results now. wisconsin returns in the race for president right now, 1% reporting, donald trump leading 58% to 37%. 1% of the vote reported so far. >> carole: to the hotly contested race for u.s. senate, this is with 3% reporting, ron johnson leading with 61% to feingold's 37%. only 3% of the precincts are in at this point. >> george: the race for the first district congressional seat, paul ryan with an overwhelming lead, 77% to 18%. just 1% reporting. time to check in with our man in janesville. >> charles benson is covering house speaker paul ryan. >> charles: paul ryan is here with his wife and children. he's been working the crowd for the last hour or so.

his race. no real drama here. he was expected to win. but of course he's looking at the bigger picture tonight. also, we're keeping an eye on races all across the state. i've been getting a little bit of information from a republican source in waukesha county, just a few numbers in, showing that ron johnson is getting 73% of the vote in waukesha county. he needs that in waukesha county. compared to 66% for donald trump. early numbers, only about 5% of the numbers in.we holds. we'll send it to julia fello up in oshkosh with ron johnson. >> reporter: charles, i up here and senator johnson got here about a half hour ago. he's mingling with his supporters, along with his family. he told me earlier today in a one on one interview, there's three different counties in our viewing area at least, the milwaukee area, waukesha,

to me and told me he wants to remain anonymo that they are worried that dane county has higher than expected voter turnout and that will be in favor of russ feingold. that's where we find our katie crowther. how does it look out there? >> reporter: russ feingold's watch party just got underway here at the marriott west in madison. you know, the public is starting to pour in right now. a live band playing. we're told feingold will not be making after the results are announced. that's when he'll take the podium. a lot of state democrats will be here as well. tammy baldwin, i spoke with her earlier, and she and feingold say they are confident about a win tonight despite feingold's narrowing lead in the polls leading up to today and early numbers coming in, they say they are confident, it's not time to worry yet. i will bring you more. reporting live, today's tmj4. >> thank you very much. >> we're live with both

president. this is a live look at the scene as hillary clinton election night gathering at the blue ribbon pub in milwaukee. shannon sims will be gathering reaction there. >> oshkosh, a look at what's going on the donald trump election night gathering. courtny gerrish will be watching the results as they come in there. the latest reaction from that location as well. >> our next update comes your way at about 8:55. >> carole: if you're on your desktop or mobile device, we're going to continue to give you coverage on facebooke. steve and our social media expert, leading the discussion online. we'll see you in just a little

we are back now from our election center in new york. this is a very tight race between hillary clinton and donald trump. many states right now are too close t a suspected. it's going to be a long night. let's go through some of those states and show you where things stand. as we look at the national popular vote, trump at 50% and florida continues to be too close to call. 141,000-vote difference there. michigan, it has emerged as an important state. 28,000-vote difference. that's too close to call. ohio, too close to call. you see the difference there. that could go way, way into the

call. 56,000-vote difference. let's look at georgia. hillary clinton drawing close there down the stretch. that is too close to call. you see the difference on the screen there. new hampshire, new hampshire right now is too close to call. 1700-vote difference. 22% of the votes in. and pennsylvania, this is where hillary clinton wound up her campaign with that big rally with the obamas 156,000-vote difference. 15% of the vote in. and the guy that's watching ma minutia of all of this is chuck todd. >> we have 94% in for florida. most of the vote left is in miami and broward. there's more vote in broward left than dade. she's winning this 67-31. the bottom line is this.

percentage does she win it by? if there's 400,000 votes left, okay, and i'm just going to do it this way, if there's 400,000 votes left and she wins it 70-30, she'll net -- she'll net 140,000 votes. that's assuming all that. now, let me go back to where florida is. oops. sorry about that. show you the total vote here in florida. it's about 140,000. my point is this. vote left for clinton to win and i don't know if trump can hang on. we are looking at a florida -- i don't think it's going to be closer than 537 votes, nicolle, but it is going to be less than a percentage point at this point. we just don't know. >> and then it gets down to what was your strategy without florida. each of them had one going into this, she going into this had more roots. >> right. no, him with florida and it's a

michigan. he doesn't need both michigan and pennsylvania. keep in mind, we still have north carolina sitting out there too close to call, new hampshire too close to call. i can tell you this, if you're the clinton campaign, because of the way the rest of the map looks, you don't want to see florida go red yet. >> and nicolle, if you're the trump campaign right now, you're starting to feel signs of life? >> well, you're saying, i told you so in that this was a lot closer than any of us -- i'll put myself in this caty that the polls reflected. i think that the polls showed hillary clinton with an 85% chance of winning. this doesn't feel like that kind of night. and trump supporters -- and i know this because i have several of my family is divided generationally between trump supporters and clinton supporters, they felt there could be a brexit effect. we don't have enough information to know if that's the case but if she wins, she won't win it

will prove everybody wrong. >> we knew we weren't going to have a call this early in the night. it was going to be close but -- >> the clinton camp thought they did. i have to say, the clinton campaign for the last 72 hours has been projecting a lot of confidence. >> but here's why. the trump campaign didn't have the same turnout operation as the clinton campaign and we saw some of the demographic roots and i think what everybody underestimated was the trump -- the rural vote coming in as high as it did. have to start to say maybe it was whether -- we didn't have our weights correct and we didn't realize that he was going to bust through the caps, essentially, of what -- turnout caps in those ruby red counties and even in -- >> you know, from the beginning, donald trump has been running from the ground up, not from the top down. he tapped in to all of those people feeling disenfranchised.

it used to be a very progressive state and a state of harold hughes and dick clark. now it's a very conservative evangelical state because they are uncomfortable with the shifts. they moved to the right and donald trump came along and tapped into all of that by going down at the bottom level and working his way the fact is that he is astonished everyone from the very beginning of all of this, including the last 48 hours, however this turns out tonight it's going to be so much closer than anybody could have realized going in. >> we ought to bring up what's going on with dow futures right now. >> yeah. >> all of the stock markets around the world are in a crater. >> margin calls. >> yes. >> i've had a note from somebody saying they are beginning to sell off because it went the other way in the last 24 hours,

was going to win. >> yep. >> popular website where people could put together their own electoral maps, call 270 to win and as far as i can tell, it's crashed right now. i think everyone is -- they are starting to -- >> how does this work? there's no florida. what's the map? >> talk to the master here. he can walk you through it. let's go to rehema ellis. >> reporter: absolutely, lester. we're at patrick mccrory and joining me is dallas woodhouse. this is a to-upstate. how are you feeling? you've got butterflies in your stomach? >> i feel more nervous than a fish at a fish fry. no question about that. however, we are in a great position at this point in the evening. urban areas tend to come in sooner and mr. trump looks like he's well on his way to win.

normally when you go up more than halfway across, you don't go back down. i will tell you a couple of things. we were up as republicans 100,000 votes, over 212,000. the democrats were down 22,000. >> reporter: that's early voting but now you've got the voting today. >> right. but republicans win election day. democrats win early voting. and they did win early voting. >> reporter: and that's what you did in obama took this stage. you think that trump is going to take it? >> doi believe that we're going to win. trump, burr and mccrory tonight. close races. >> reporter: they are cautiously optimistic here. >> thanks very much. let's go to miami right now with a family who is nervously watching these results in florida where things are

with several families at this local watch party in miami. many of the people you see behind me are undocumented. some are voters and, as you can imagine, the mood here grew incredibly tense as these results started to tighten like many latinos across the country for many of the voters here, their main motivation was what they call the trump effect or the trump factor, mainly, the republican candidate's stance on immigration that cryli and as you have been covering throughout the night, we have seen record turnout by latinos in several battleground states here in florida, a 75% increase in early voting by latinos compared to 2012. but just the fact that donald trump appears to be leading in the polls now just brought back the issue of immigration to a gathering like this one you see behind me. it is not the only issue latinos

personal one and you can see it right here. many of these families holding hands. they even held a prayer not too long ago as they anxiously await these results and fear their families could be split up if donald trump in fact wins the presidency. >> mariana, thanks. i think it's time to revisit -- it's time to revisit the -- >> the what if map? >> yeah, the route to 270. and florida was such a big part of it. >> let's, for now -- we're not projecting anything. we're just going to give it -- trump's leading there. he's leading in georgia. he's leading in north carolina. he's leading in ohio. he's sitting at 248. let's assume arizona he sits at 259 there. he's not leading in new hampshire. we do have this nebraska situation. i don't know why we haven't -- >> it's split. >> it's split but he's already got those, that we're aware of.

so that's what is sitting here. this assumed michigan. you just flipped michigan here. now, let's give her new hampshire for now. there is some work there. and then you look -- >> she's over the top. >> he would be over the top with michigan at this point. she needs one of these states. let's put back north carolina. that would do it. but as you can see here, now michigan -- take michigan and it's a different situation. this is what we're staring at. way, and we know there are interesting things on twitter. it doesn't take long to get you to 269. i could do it right here by simply moving colorado and then you would have -- i don't know why we have three extras. i think nebraska has gotten messed up here on our map so we will neutralize them. but this should be red. the point is, this is precarious.

>> this is no longer -- if he sweeps those two and ohio and we're looking at michigan too close to call and suddenly we could be sitting on michigan, colorado. i mean, it's going to be a long night. if you're a junkie, it's going to be a fun night. we're dividing up this map in ways we haven't seen. 269, 269 is in play. this feels a lot like 2000 brokaw. >> are you okay, >> yeah. i brought my old script with me so that's okay. i can just go back to that. >> i may need to borrow it. we're going to take a quick break. we're continuing to monitor those states that are too close to call. you will want to stay with us. our decision night in america

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that's democracy plaza outside our studios here in new york on what is a dramatic night that has even more drama on top of it. the popular vote, trump ahead, 49-47%. but folks, this is a night about we knew it would be but it's far closer than many imagined. florida right now, too close to call. 139,000-vote difference. clinton was forced to defend down the stretch, a 50,000 vote difference, too close to call. ohio, perennial battleground state, too close to call. you see the difference there. north carolina right now at 84,000-vote difference. too close to call.

that clinton was hoping to turn blue, very close there as well. too close. new hampshire, look at new hampshire right there. 1300, 1400 votes separate the two of them. and pennsylvania, also too close to call. the state that hillary clinton made her big finish last night. a lot of drama here on this night and in the race to 270, here's where things stand. based on the projections we've made so far, 137 in the trump column, and there's the map right now unfolding on the rink below us. a lot of gray still unfinished which will tell the story when they are filled in but right now they are not and the biggest one hanging out there, literally, is florida. >> i hate to say, this looks good for trump. >> in florida? >> in florida. i think with what's left -- it depends on how much is left and nicolle remembers this mythical

but as the broward vote has continued to come in, we're now at about 75, 80% of the broward vote is in and she has not narrowed that gap. there's not a lot left. one precinct in miami can be -- can have 100,000 votes in it. so that happens in those big counties so you don't know for sure but i don't think -- she needs, as i said -- she's still behind 140,000 votes. she needs to hope there's -- i keep saying, 400,000 votes wins them 65-35 but i don't know if there's that much votes left. >> what about the too close to call states? >> we have a way to go here. north carolina, there's too much vote out to say. i take the republican party spokesperson dallas woodhouse's word for it that you'd rather be trump than clinton but if you go

like 11,000 and this one is now starting to look like she is likely to end up getting what she needs here. we're still waiting for fairfax and northern virginia. she'll likely win virginia but by the smallest of margins and we have to wait to see if these folks turned out. but virginia is trending her way, narrowly, okay, but we -- it may be michigan. >> michigan. >> michigan is going to be if he wins florida and north carolina and ohio, we're going to be sitting here waiting on michigan. >> and nobody was talking about michigan five days ago. >> let's go to hallie jackson now. hallie? >> reporter: i'm joined by filmmaker michael moore who has spent months diving into the mind of the trump voter. you're a hillary clinton supporter but you have predicted what we are seeing with donald trump, particularly in michigan,

wrote an essay called the brexit states, michigan, ohio, pennsylvania, that the working class that has been so abused and attacked and their livelihood taken from them over these last couple decades. they are at the point where they are so angry and full of so much despair that i could see they would use the ballot box as an anger management exercise. >> you call it a middle >> yes, only to find out a month or two from now how regretful they are going to be because he's not only going to blow up the system, he has no idea how to rebuild it. >> so when we talk about a state like michigan which came on late in the game as a really important battleground, when we're seeing what we're seeing there tonight which is this state that is incredibly close and essentially a turning point for donald trump, you're a guy who knows michigan pretty well. are you surprised by that?

i've been trying to tell people we have to put special focus on michigan, ohio, pennsylvania. these are the people i grew up with. i know what's going on here. they are being manipulated by a con artist. that's what donald trump is. he has not told them the truth. he's not going to bring your jobs back and he is really -- he's the -- he's a dying dinosaur. his way of doing things and that old -- that's the old america. we're into the future right now. >> much, former bernie sanders supporter, now a hillary clinton supporter. lester, back to you on the other side of our election center. >> hallie, thanks. up next, a live report on the ground in which is perhaps the most surprising battleground in the whole election. plus, four more states are closing, including nevada.

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as we come back from a break, this is a picture ivanka trump tweeted out showing mike pence and family and staffers watching returns here like the rest of us, trying to figure out where this is all leading. let's go to katy tur at trump headquarters. katy? >> reporter: quite confident in where they stand at this moment. they still believe this is going to be a tight race but it's

their eyes are on florida right now. two of donald trump sources are telling us, florida operatives are telling us that it's a nail-biter but that they will win it. they are holding their breath and waiting on more results from broward county. a source in virginia tells us to watch out for virginia beach. they believe they could see quite a bit of turnout in that area. after they go from florida, north carolina, ohio and iowa, then they are going to go on and keep their focus on are going to feel very confident about this race. they have said for quite a while now that they believe michigan is a state that is particularly susceptible to donald trump's message, his job's message. they believe it's one that cuts across demographics, one that won't matter what race you are. you'll want to vote for jobs rather than vote along party lines and they believe they are going to be able to do that.

at clinton headquarters. >> reporter: they are about as nervous as every other democrat around. look, this place is so down, they are playing videos and also coverage. now there's a cheer that's gone up because they see some movement in virginia. virginia is critical, as you know. they were waiting to see what was happening in fairfax county and in richmond. but the fact is that the results in michigan and ohio and in florida are really depressing the mood here. that's the first cheer i've heard here basically all night, anything other than an east coast state like rhode island or connecticut performa. the fact is, they are going to have to look back at what they didn't do. they had a 2-1 spending advantage on air, on television.

out of virginia and colorado and they have a lot of thinking to do about what is happening here tonight if this thing does go against them. >> andrea, in that crowd, we heard them applause a minute ago. let's put up virginia. >> first time that she took the lead and that's what they were looking at. >> move forward there. >> there it is. she took the narrow lead and i can just tell you, my own history of doing this, we know where this is headed but, wow, it's close. >> she had to work for >> we're quickly approaching 10:00 p.m. in the east and 7:00 p.m. out west. our electric coverage >> our decision 2016 coverage continues here on today's tmj4. >> george: we're going to take a look at some early presidential and senate results here in wisconsin.

your screen. >> carole: let's look at the very latest numbers we have in the wisconsin returns for the presidential race. donald trump with 50%, hillary clinton with 45%. this is with 23% of the votes reporting. >> george: these results, it's worth noting, do not include the votes from milwaukee and that will take a while. as we look at the u.s. senate race, ron johnson and russ feingold. let's listen to what mayor tom barrett has to say about tonight. >> expect for a later night in wisconsin. i remain confident that hillary clinton is going to win the state of wisconsin. i'm very confident that hillary clinton will be the next president of the united states. >> mayor barrett trying to get excitement at the clinton camp. reaction from the senate candidates. >> katie crowther is with the feingold campaign. >> carole: we'll begin with julia fello with the johnson campaign in oshkosh.

contest for control felt u.s. senate. ron john is here. he is really looking closely at three counties right now, waukesha, ozaukee and washington. if you look at waukesha county, for example, he is winning right now, 68 to 29% with more than 80% voters in. the waukesha county clerk expects a higher voter turnout than the last presidential election, 2012, which was at 85%. so, reporting live, julia today's tmj4. >> paul ryan is speaking to the crowd, a victorious paul ryan, it all right, at this hour. >> express my gratitude to your generosity and your goodwill. however inadequate it may be, i just want to say to everybody i've been working with for all these years, thank you. thank you from the bottom of my heart. all i can tell you is, i will do everything, i will work my

there's only one thing that could make this even more special, and that is the fact that i get to celebrate this evening with the people here in this room. [ applause ] >> you know i way outkicked my coverage, and my better half liza, our boys, charlie and sam, my sister janet, my brother-in-law bill, my nephew matt, my brother tobin and sister-in-law oakley are here with us tonight. we have a number of office holders here as well. we have members of the state assembly and the state senate, congratulations on your races.

you tonight. well deserved races all of you. congratulations. [ applause ] >> you've heard me say this before. i'm a fifth generation native of this town, janesville, wisconsin. i've lived here almost my entire life. i've known most of you for years, if not decades. we have grown up together. we share this community together it's a great and a wonderful state. and the best country god ever created. [ applause ] >> and i am so eager to get back to work with for you, to get on with fixing our country's problems, we have so much potential in this country, and if we can just -- by some accounts, i've just been sitting there watching the polls, this

am all. this could be a good night for us. fingers crossed. [ applause ] >> thank you. i'm eager to watch. there are a lot of raises we want to watch, ron johnson's race, all the others. there are raises we want to watch. [ applause ] >> so like you, i'm eager to watch the rest of the evening. i'm eager to enjoy this evening with you. so thank you so much for coming out. god bless you all. appreciate it. thank you. thank you. could be a good night for republicans. keeping his fingers crossed. we'll continue to have much more coverage throughout the evening. right now we return to the

are close, the state of pennsylvania as we take a look right there at the map. but if we can move out, i want to show you what is happening in pennsylvania because we want to go to our correspondent there, kate snow, who is with both trump and clinton voters. . kate? >> reporter: lester, yeah, we are right outside of which we said earlier is an area that you need to watch in pennsylvania. and it's interesting, we're in a bar, obviously. we've got a lot of trump fans here. i was talking to lisa before. you were telling me that you didn't want to put a sign out in front of your house because you're a business owner. but now, how are you feeling right now? >> i'm so excited. i am just beyond excited because now you can say this is the guy i wanted, this is a guy who spoke his mind and who is going to fight for us.

volunteer. why? >> yeah, because he, again, is going to take our country back. . there are different things as a business owner you want to just -- taxes, obamacare, there are all of these -- >> reporter: you said to me earlier you felt like he says the things that other people don't say out loud? >> no. they said he said this about women, he said that. what has he said that i don't hear other women men? you know, women talk about men all the time and have said worse than he's ever said. >> reporter: let me pivot over here. how are you feeling? you're watching the tvs in here. the sound isn't up. how are you feeling? >> a little nervous. i'm surprised about florida being so close. i don't want it to go back to a

to recount the votes but i think it's going to come down to florida. >> everybody is nodding. nobody wants a recount. myself, included. i was in tallahassee for a long time. tell me why you think this county might go for hillary clinton. . >> i'm actually from illinois but -- >> reporter: okay. you're from philly. we've got a mixed crowd in the bar. why did you vote for her? >> i did not vote because i'm american. >> reporter: thank you so much, appreciate it. lester, i would say it's very loud in here, there's a deejay playing behind me so folks can't really hear all of our coverage. we've got it all on the screen. people are glued to the screens. we're hearing the lines were so long in some places, people are still voting. even though polls closed technically at 8:00, two hours ago, people are still in

>> kate, thanks. another projection coming in, i'm told it's new mexico. nbc news projects that hillary clinton will win the five electoral votes in the state of new mexico. hallie jackson is digging into some of the numbers in this very, very tight race in the exit polls. >> lester, we're battleground states. let's start with michigan. we've been talking about that all night. we want to focus on what's driving this close race in these states. and in michigan, at this moment, exit polls are showing it appears to be white voters with a college degree. look at this column here, the republican candidate. the republican candidate in 2012 got 55% of the vote. donald trump is doing better, up six points. he is overperforming the republican from 2012, mitt romney. look at the democratic candidate, of course hillary clinton.

of the vote. she is down 13 percentage points from that position, from where they were in 2012. so that is really what we're looking at and what we're sort of diving into when it comes to michigan. i want to pull up pennsylvania. we're taking a look at the age gap. voters in pennsylvania under the age of 30, the so-called millennials, they're breaking out for hillary clinton by 55-39%. it's the reverse o voters over 65, going more for donald trump. he's got 60% of the vote, she's got 48% of the vote. another key battleground state, the race breakout in florida. let's pull it up here. those voters in florida who have a favorable opinion of donald trump, most white voters in florida do have a favorable opinion. one in four hispanic voters roughly have a favorable opinion. only one in ten black voters feel that same way. and this demographic here, the african-american vote, the hispanic vote,

comes to turnout. i did speak with one source close to the trump campaign who said, hey, we are not getting crushed with the hispanic vote, a good sign for them. >> hallie jackson, thanks. now back to our panel. mike murphy served as senior strategist for john mccain's first campaign for president in 2000, mike, nice to have you. for those who thought this was going to be an early evening, you say? >> yeah. anything but. i thought florida, a and most of the political hacks on both sides thought it would be an early defeat for trump and that would set the tone. instead, florida will be hard. >> we have another call in the state of missouri. nbc news projects missouri will go to donald trump, donald trump a win. and let's look at where things stand right now. there is a missouri call. let me show where we stand in the race to 270.

clinton 109. the race to 270. mike, i cut you off, i'm sorry, go ahead. >> what's interesting about florida is the pattern is unlike anything i've seen in florida politics before. you get a more urban republican area, jacksonville, trump is doing horribly. he's doing under romney in the bigger counties. but in tampa he's off the charts, breaking the meters in numbers that we haven't seen before. i believe it will of her vote out than his. i don't think she'll be able to make it. >> so far he hasn't won anything that we didn't anticipate. chuck, you've been crunching the numbers on florida. >> it's not enough. maybe there's some extra vote that we don't know about. i stress that, that happens. i remember vividly in 2000, the 50,000-vote error that was discovered late. so don't forget those things happen here.

are left, almost every county has reported. what's out is, there's only one county that's out that's more favorable to trump. polk has a little bit. volusia, which is daytona, a 50/50 county. that's not enough for her to gain ground. it's palm beach, miami, and broward. is there enough vote out there left in those bottom three counties for her to close this gap? but i have to tell you, the gap grew again. she got it down to 111,000. and then it's back up to 130. i don't see the path forward for her in florida. listen to this, last time a democrat won the white house without the state of florida was bill clinton, 1992. so maybe she's got that karma going for her, i don't know. the last time you lost florida and ohio and won the white house? >> we're looking at a situation that it's michigan.

i go through this, pennsylvania, she probably does eke it out, we'll see. she has to do that. we're looking at michigan being the big decider here. >> nobody was talking about michigan until about five days ago. >> except michael moore, i'll give him that, he's been screaming about that, to his credit. >> to his credit. it's his home state, we all like to talk about our home states, we look at chuck with florida. trump saw something going on in michigan, they sent him there, people were saying, what? added a stop, president clinton was there. >> somebody who's done a lot of governor campaigns, michigan has rural counties that are more democratic in many places compared to sun belt and southern states. >> they have been. >> they have been. will trump turn that over and will detroit vote with flint or will it be under enough that trump's overage in some of these places will make it? trump was doing well

still out. it's going to be tight. >> totally underestimated by those of us in the so-called establishment. the people who have been looking at this, the depth of the anger, the depth of the people saying i want to change, i don't care if i have to pull a pin on a grenade and roll it across the country, whatever it takes, we want change and we want big change. >> the other thing we did, and i have to say this, the biggest critique on the establishment, and i throw the media in here as well as the two political parties, we have overlooked rural and i think in hindsight, you know, everybody's been talking about the changing demographics of america and the changing face of america. that's all true. but we've forgotten about rural america. and rural america is basically saying, hello, they are screaming at us to say, stop overlooking us, you know, we're not ready to have just 21st century fly by us. >> some of this has been hiding in plain sight. donald trump came in with a message that was very distinct and

from republican -- the way that republicans have always run as free traders and they love free trade agreements. and if his message is resonating, this is where it was going to resonate. if it was going to make a difference, this is exactly where. in some ways, ultimately it's not surprising that now we're focused like a laser on this section of the country. >> and building a bit of a new coalition with that economic populism. but will it have long enough legs? we'll see. >> we still have hours to go here have a restaurant that delivers breakfast, i would call them right now. >> joining us now is conservative political commentator and host glenn beck, founder of the blaze, thanks for joining us. >> thank you very much. >> give us your take, things are a lot tighter than many had imagined tonight. >> a lot tighter than i imagined as well.

right on the money. i think chuck said the heartland. i don't think we've listened to each other at all. i know i've been at fault in this. in the last couple of years, i've recall tried to analyze myself and analyze what i've done and what i do. and we don't listen to each other. and we don't trust each other. and, you know, the media, that includes me, that includes you, i can't believe it would, but it does, that 34% of americans trust any of our voices. and that is because they view us as speaking down to them, pontifica pontificating, telling them and not listening to them, declaring who they are. it's difficult for me to consider myself a conservative or to

republican tonight if this is what a conservative or a republican is, then i'm not part of that. i don't want anything to do with that. but i understand why peopre fng this way. when you have, wha is it, 60% of the people who voted for donald trump don't like that they're voting for adopt, and 54% who are voting for hillary clinton aren't happy about voting for hillary clinton. >> so have a lot of orphan voters, people like yourself who don't feel like they have a place? >> i think the majority feel that way, even those people who voted for either one of these, they're not happy with it. and so i think on both sides, the parties have to realize now, boy, we need to start reflecting the piece people and listening to the people, because the people are

reason. they're not listening. when you get into so much fear or so much anger, you know, the mind's mechanism is just to shut down reason. they're not listening to reason. and we have got to find our way to each other. my goal in the next year is to meet with the people i think i disagree with the most and not try to talk them into anything, not try to have an argument with them, i just want to listen. i want to be able to say, is this what you believe, and why you believe it? and when they say yes, then we could even begin to have a conversation. but at least for me, that's a year away before i can have a conversation. we have to start listening to people. if we don't, we're in trouble. >> glenn beck, thanks for spending some time from dallas. the close race is still up for grabs. we're awaiting more poll closings. stay with us. things remain razor thin right now. more coverage of decision night in

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welcome back. a view of the rink, democracy plaza. the map slowly filling in. we're waiting for a lot of states, too close to call. a nail-biter of a night. the race to 270, those are the numbers there. we want to show you a tweet hillary clinton put out a little after 5:00 this afternoon. i'll try and read it from here. "this team has so much

tonight, thank you for everything." that, by the way, was before any of the polls closed. that again from hillary clinton. we're also watching the dow futures right now reacting to this night. the dow futures down 625 points right now as investors continue to watch what's happening here. this race a lot closer at this point in the night than many people had anticipated. it's going to keep us all up here quite late tonight. a lot of states too close t welker at clinton headquarters. >> reporter: lester, good evening. top clinton campaign officials and surrogates say they're not panicking. they still insist there is a path to win even if they don't hold florida or ohio, not that they are conceding those states. the path for them, the states that they are focused on right now, include michigan, colorado, virginia, and pennsylvania. lester, we've spent so much time talking

that massive rally last night, more than 30,000 people joined by the obamas and of course her husband, that big unity rally. i can tell you that i've been talking to democrats who were invited here to what they were hoping would be a watch party and victory party and they are candidly acknowledging that they have begun to get nervous, that this is a very close race. they were anticipating that but obviously it's turning into a much closer race than they had hoped for. the mood this night initially got under way, was ebullient. the crowd was cheering, now it has become much quieter, those moments of cheering have become fewer and farther between. again, they still think they have a path and they are very focused on the state of michigan and pennsylvania at this hour, lester. >> all right, right now we see trump leading in the electoral race with 150 to clinton's 109. this could be, this will be, a very long

every step of the way, keeping a close eye on the tight battleground races. more poll closings coming up. we invite you to stay with us. we'll be right back. about my family history. went to ancestry, i put in the names of my grandparents first. i got a leaf right away. a leaf is a hint that is connected to each person in your family tree. i learned that my ten times great grandmother is george washington's aunt. within a few days i went from knowing almost nothing to holy crow, this is my cousin george. discover your story. start searching for free now at ancestry.com we're quickly back from the break. we have a new projection, the state of ohio. nbc news projects donald trump will win

all let's show you where that takes us in the race to 270 right now. as we come down on the ice and right now it's 168, trump. clinton, 109. you've been watching florida. you don't think it's going well for clinton there. >> i don't. and i think north carolina is trending trump here. look, first of all, ohio, a little historical nugget. last time somebody didn't win the white house while winning ohio was in 1960, richard ohio, you have to win ohio to win the white house. trump has done it. florida is trending his way. north carolina is trending his way. i go back, this is -- i mean, luke russert has already tweeted it, god love him. michigan, michigan, michigan. itting here talking about michigan. >> ohio, i agree, i was just going to say, ohio is one where the polls seem to have gotten it right, the polls consistently showed a tight race

as you mentioned, with florida and ohio, potentially north carolina, now we're looking at the rust belt, virginia close for comfort for clinton. >> the clinton campaign bragged about these firewalls. okay. let's see if you have one. we're about to find out. >> does pennsylvania remain a firewall? >> pennsylvania is the one state so far performing as they expected, not underperforming. all eyes are on michigan. although both new hampshire and nevada, those go ways that you're not then we start getting into the funky 269-269 business, i'm not saying that yet. there's still macomb county and wayne county. she's winning in oakland by about ten points. it's killing it in macomb by about 20, the old democrat home. wayne is detroit. detroit has been a

the few cities in america that's been shrinking, not expanding over the last decade. >> she's going to lead excellent wayne county. he'll do well in western wayne county, which are working class suburbs. and genesee, flint. she'll need to perform there. the rural stuff is going pretty well for him. and oakland is not that big. it should be -- >> not big enough. >> are there any signs, we talked about the silent trump vote, the ones that didn't show up on the radar in the polls? >> i wouldn't call it silent. turnout in rural areas. and i think a lot of the polling underestimated it. is it a silent trump vote or it was more, it was there, it didn't activate during the primaries in these giant numbers, so i think too many of our pros, i would love to talk to our pollsters about it, these folks maxed out in rural america. >> it vindicates what donald trump was saying about his rallies, look all these people, i got

tiny section of north carolina or michigan or everywhere. >> the governor of ohio, a very popular guy, governor cass itch, who has gone to war against donald trump during this entire election season, and rob portman who ran away from him, a popular senator, trump comes into the state and wins it. i mean, that tells you something that is extraordinary that is going on. conventional politics ain't in play anymore, folks. >> in his places, they're on steroids. it is huge amounts of quick break. we'll be back with more as we continue. again, ohio is the latest one in the trump portfolio, as we've watched that good evening--the ballots continue to be counted at this hour... many races still up for grabs. good evening, i'm george mallet.and i'm carole meekins. but one race that has been called here in wisconsin: house speaker paul ryan

the race for president is turning into a real nail- biter. donald trump, holding a narrow lead in the electoral college. here now... are the latest wisconsin numbers:((ad lib)) our reporters are gathering reaction to the numbers as they come in. shannon sims is standing by at with the clinton campaign in milwaukee but we begin with courtny gerrish. she's live with the trump campaign in oshkosh. courtny: but overall pretty quiet. governor scott walker we're told is here. he has yet to work his way into the room where we are tonight, hoping to speak with him.

of them being scott walker who was a presidential hopeful, and he's in the better than hillary champ. if trump's elected president how can he rally republicans around him. we're going to go over to shannon sims in milwaukee covering the clinton camp. shannon? >> reporter: it is a crowded room here in milwaukee. one thing, everyone has their eyes glued to the especially the projection coming in from ohio going to donald trump. the mood here is cautiously optimistic. the night is still young, and we are waiting for a number of those wisconsin numbers to come in. now, mayor speaking a little bit earlier about the absentee ballots that need to be counted. over 63,000 of those needing to be counted. we'll watch the numbers as they come in and show you live back

we want to bring in the latest results from the u.s. senate between russ fine goald and ron johnson. >> we have reporters covering this race for you tonight. let's get to julia fello. >> reporter: johnson's chief of staff took the stage. it's not it is extremely hopeful out here. there's been many cheers, especially when they see the race up on the big screen. back to you. >> reporter: julia, thank you very much. >> let's get to katie crowther, she's standing by right now in madison. hey, katie. >> reporter: carole and george. hundreds of people are here for russ feingold. fine goald will not be make an

final. feingold told me earlier he is not worried. he says many of the polls are inaccurate. early numbers showing republican ron johnson already with lead, but milwaukee counties where democratic voters are starting to come in now. feingold expected to win both those counties, and a feingold victory tonight could shift the democratic majority of senate, so we will stay out here reporting live. katie crowther, today'smj watch on those results and gather reaction as those results are tallied. >> we'll have another update for

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and as we come back from a break, we have a new projection. nbc news projects that hillary clinton will win in the state of virginia. 13 electoral votes. here is how it's shaking out right clinton had it 48-47% over trump. let's see how things stand on the electoral map. trump, 168, clinton 122, as our map begins to fill in. some states in gray on the map will create upset stomachs in both campaigns.

brains behind the nbc/"wall street journal" poll. bill, obviously the battlegrounds, much tighter than any of the polling showed. not just ours, all of the polling. is this the result of a hidden trump vote, or us underestimating what rural america would do in turning out? >> well, i think it's a little bit of both. it's not a shy vote. it's that donald trump has built a unique coalition, winning the mid-30s, higher than ronald reagan in the year 1980. and those people are turning out. and it's aggregating. when you're winning the rural part by 30, 35 points, it's offsetting softer turnout in some of the core urban areas. that combination is pushing these states. look, the other thing you want to remember is that minnesota, michigan, these are states that still radiant a very high percentage of the

different than other parts of the country. >> fred? >> i would say volatility. one of the interesting findings from the exit polls is the people who decided in the last couple of days went for trump by five points, not a huge margin, but in a race like this where small margins make a big difference in some of these battleground states. plus the fact that clinton didn't perform as well with white college age voters as some of the pre-election polls suggested. add all these things these battleground states to the trump column. >> bill, you had a fascinating nugget in the exit poll. among voters who didn't like both candidates, who is winning? >> trump is winning 2-1. that's 18% of the people who voted who didn't like either candidate. >> that's one in five. >> that's 3, 3 1/2 times higher than the things we normally see. you have folks, one out of five, who don't like either candidate, and they voted for the guy who represents the

bill, in the exit polls, 54% of americans gave president obama a positive approval rating. and his designated successor is in a 50/50 fight for the presidency. >> unbelievable. all right, lester, i'm coming back to the boards, buddy. >> come on back. i want to go out to andrea mitchell at hillary clinton's headquarters in new york. andrea, we've discussed over the last week or two this notion of overconfidence. the clinton folks said they were guarding against it. but cly got to be a lot of nervousness in that room right now. >> there was a big cheer that went up with the virginia call, that was a very big deal. interesting that barbara comstock, a well-known fairfax county congresswoman, republican, won her seat, even though hillary clinton is projected to be the winner in virginia. the crowd is being fired up by governor andrew cuomo, speaking outside this room. other than that, there have been few speakers

pretty quiet night here. that said, if they win michigan, and i was talking to former governor jennifer granholm who still things it's possible, she acknowledges the african-american vote was not what they expected, they're still looking for more latino votes. they're waiting to see what happens in michigan, as you've all been pointing out, that's their hope that they've got a path. i don't buy the argument about overconfidence. just traveling with hillary clinton and watching how hard they worked and the money field of volunteers and paid staff they put out there, i think that they were determined not to leave anything on the table up until her final homecoming at 3:30, 3:45 this morning. so i just think that the e-mail controversy and other ingredients that made her less popular, less trustworthy, you just cited those polls with

mcintyre, that is a residual fact. that last-minute comey letter, we don't know this, anecdotally, that last-minute letter was a momentum-killer. nbc news projects the state of colorado, hillary clinton will win in the state of colorado, nine el nicole in here. that's an important one. that's got to -- >> here's what's happened. they're all important for her now, and for him. with all due respect to our pollsters and everyone else's pollsters, the assumption as of noon today was that she was three points, five points ahead. this is not the map that reflects a three-point race. the republicans in michigan are like republicans in a lot of the other states,

message in certain states that we weren't watching but someone in the trump orbit knew he had a shot at. >> trump at 168, hillary clinton at 131, in the race to 270. chuck is at the map continuing to work these paths to 270. >> i'm going to put them here. nebraska, we had a little glitch, it's all in the system, trust me on there. let's put arizona, let's give her lvanpesy. if i one of our pollsters, an expert on pennsylvania, he thinks she wins there. 9 to2. let's see what happens in nevada. i'm not as confident about nevada anymore considering what we've seen there. but you can easily start messing around. chldut h completely over the top without needing a nevada and without needing new hampshire. that's the potential path he now has. this assumes that iowa

still haven't -- but if ohio went his way, you've got to assume that iowa is going to go there too. so look, i come back here, michigan, she's now going to need michigan and new hampshire or a nevada. certainly there. but essentially, nicole is right, each state is now important to both of them. this is no longer, oh, you know, she's got all these paths to 270. no, she doesn't. her path to 270 is pennsylvania, michigan, and either nevada or new hampshire. and she has to win three of those four. anwo new hampshire. >> savannah, give me your take on that. >> as chuck just said, this is firewall time. and you look at some of these states and you see that there's a hillary clinton headquarters and they're cheering for virginia and they're cheering for colorado. these are two states that they were so confident about, they stopped spending money on them back in august. it's just a complete sea change. i think people are going to say, how did this happen, how did

going to find out that they severely underestimated that rural vote, the white noncollege educated voter, turning out in a much bigger number, and perhaps we're going to be looking at the african-american vote being depressed in certain areas and that's going to be the difference. >> i hate to bring up a name that -- this race changed when director comey made that initial thing. that's when republicans galvanized. you noted, nicole, that's when trump became a good but look, republicans coming home is the other story here. not only have we seen in the excerpts blowing through the roof the trump voter, but as -- >> establishment republicans. >> -- as bill noted, your college-educated white voter, she's doing well. but she's not doing as well as expected. >> it doesn't cancel out what he got. this was always out of reach for him when he was fighting for his own party, that's why

calamitous when he went to intraparty war with republicans. but the closing weeks of this campaign have had republicans, even paul ryan, singing off the same song sheet. >> and don't forget health care. >> huge story. >> when those premiums went up, their research said go after it, because he hammered, hammered, hammered health care. >> with an assist from bill clinton, who said something derogatory gave them fuel, gave them ammunition. what was different about the post-comey period was that he had ammunition and he used it. he had been a very inefficient candidate until that moment. when the comey letter hit, he became a very efficient, very disciplined, almost a traditional kind of candidate. this is what it yielded. >> kevin tibbles is in michigan right now. kevin, what's the mood where you are and what are people talking about? >> reporter: well, lester, i think it's one of amazement and

people here last night were attending one of the final donald trump rallies here. at any point, did you ever think that michigan, it might actually come down to michigan? >> never. never thought it would happen. >> reporter: what about you? michigan did not seem to be in play. this was supposed to be a democrat state. >> we were ready to be in play. we were excited for something new and different. and donald trump is that person. >> reporter: what does donald truep different? >> he tells it like it is. he isn't politically correct, which is sometimes good and sometimes not, but you know where he's coming from. >> reporter: i have to ask him, as a woman, why did you vote for him? >> because he tells it like it is. i have a lot of friends who tell it like it is and you can trust them. you have to sort through some of the weeds. but when you get to the gist of it, you know he's speaking strong words, and that

>> reporter: this was a rather subdued crowd up until about 45 minutes ago, lester, that's when the results started to come in. i think people here got excited when they saw what was going on in ohio. which of course i believe is still too close to call. and then it started coming in here. people started talking about the number of people that voted in the detroit area, which seemed to be low. and then here, which has been a republican sort of island in this state of ig evening, i mean, who knows? it's all up in the air. who knows what's going to happen here, lester? >> all right, kevin tibbles, thanks very much. i know in the crush of that room and the noise, you may have missed it, but ohio has been called as a donald trump state. donald trump wins ohio. let's drill down on ohio, because it may be -- hallie jackson, it may tell us what else is going on in the midwest. >> here is what we're seeing in ohio, which could be reflected in michigan, another

it wasn't immigration, foreign policy, or terrorism that ended up giving trump the win, according to our exit polls. it was the economy. 54% of ohio voters said that was the most important issue to them. the voters who said that the economy was the most important issues, and ohio voters overall, more of them thought that donald trump would better handle the economy. his message on trade seemed to resonate. this is something that we heard from trump in the closing months of his campaign, in the last few weeks, as he made trip after trip to ohio, pressing this driving his victory in ohio, he is the projected winner there. take a look at this next board here. it's what we've been talking about all night. white voters without a college degree. look at the margin for the republican candidate. in 2012 it was 56%. donald trump outperformed mitt romney this year. look what happened with the democratic candidate in 2012. barack obama got 42%. hillary clinton underperformed him by five points.

we're going to look to see if it's matched in michigan, lester. >> hallie jackson, thank you. we'll take a quick break. we'll keep a close eye on the too close to call states, and there are many of them. we're also keeping an eye on a big one, california. stay with us. ? alexa, pause. [silence] alexa, resume. ladies and gentlemen... [crash] alexa, ask domino's for my easy order. okay. alexa, open baby names. okay. [laughter] from the first moment you met

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it's 10:45 in the east. more poll closings, california, hawaii, idaho, oregon, and washington. we'll have the characterizations at the top of the hour. kristen walker joins us from the clinton campaign headquarters.

still have a path to 270 and they say they are on that path. why? because they have won colorado and virginia. but the path includes holding wisconsin and michigan. they would then have to win pennsylvania and either win nevada or new hampshire. so those are the states that they are watching at this hour. now, they point out that in terms of wisconsin, madison is still out, obviously a heavy college area, they're going to get younger voters, they th that area. michigan, detroit is out. a lot of african-american voters, of course president obama has been there trying to energize his base and that part of the obama coalition. i can tell you there are jitters here among top clinton supporters who are gathered at the javits center. some of them acknowledging to me they're quite concerned about the fact that this race is a whole lot closer than they were anticipating. but again, at this hour the clinton campaign stressing that they still have a path to 270.

get there. >> listening to that path, kristen, we're sending chuck with his pad up to the map here. >> the path is one state right now. yes, we may -- we'll worry about nevada and new hampshire when we get there. >> and wisconsin, she noted. >> and wisconsin, no doubt. let's get to know michigan a little bit here. look, more than 50% of the vote is still out. ultimately let's take a look at what wayne county is going to do. right now clinton is winning it by almost 30 points. let's just to get an idea of the total vote that you'll see out of it. so we have 220,000 votes in there so far. you go to wayne in 2012, president obama won it by almost 50 points. he got nearly, oh, 370,000 net out of there. so my point is, that's what you're going to be wanting to watch tonight, number one, is going to be how much -- oh, there we go -- how much does she get out of here.

she needs to net -- doesn't need to net as much as obama got out of there, but she needs to net 275, 300,000 votes just out of wayne county. we have a ways to go. that's just a simple way of watching michigan right now. >> while we have you on the map, can you show us where florida is. >> we haven't checked in on florida in a little bit. >> sorry to put you on the spot. >> that's okay. i could have navigated it look, the vote keeps coming in. she hasn't narrowed the gap that well of it's not not there. unless there's magic ballot boxes somewhere that we don't know about, i can tell you the remaining vote is basically here in palm beach, broward, miami, and one precinct in monroe that's left. by the way, i was talking to a florida expert of mine about how has trump done

county, both north and south, in the tampa market. he just blew through every single vote total estimate that democrats had and frankly even republicans. just blew through. look, she did her job in hillsboro. normally, how hillsboro goes, it was the most important swing county in the country over the last 16 years. but this is not enough. she's going to win hillsborough and lose the st very often but that's the story of what happened in rural america. >> everybody was talking about how trump didn't have much of a get out the vote operation. >> he didn't need it. >> apparently not. he relied heavily on the republican party, and there was grousing about some states but there not being sufficient get out the vote operations. he got out the vote. we'll take a break. a lot more on decision

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750 points. that's 60 points more as a result of what we're seeing so far. that's wall street making its bet, hedging its bets at this point about what is likely to happen. if you look at these, they think that trump is going to be the president. >> as florida seems to be slipping away from clinton and the path certainly for trump becoming a lot easier. >> i don't speak fluent cnbc, but i mean, wall street, we all know, hates uncertainty. i think most financial experts will tell you there was the expectation that hillary clinton would win. so i think what we're seeing here is wall street reacting to the uncertainty, what would it mean, because this is not something that the markets had really considered as a true possibility. >> although -- >> but it went the other day until comey. >> it did, they briefly priced it in and priced it out. >> it's interesting, the polls didn't really identify a

though you kind of felt it. >> look, we never -- we still will never know, okay? the point is, was it a natural closing we were all witnessing? or did comey sort of galvanize the republican base to say, oh, yeah, that's why i don't like her. i had somebody text me and just say, perhaps democrats -- and this was a democrat saying this -- perhaps democrats underestimated the dislike for hillary clinton out there. the assumption was trump's dislike would but that's not what's happening. if you dislike both of them, you were more likely to vote trump than clinton. i think they thought in the dislike-both-of-them game, she would win. >> people had them even on the untruthfulness question. >> we have to be careful, we don't have the final results yet. we have to work our way through them. >> tom, even if she wins now, this is a different -- this is

>> no, i agree with that. even if she wins now, it will be contested, is what i think. there will be an automatic challenge, given the way donald trump operates. i really think it's going to come to that. whatever the results are. >> what's interesting is that when we polled, it's remarkably consistent. trump had high negatives, slightly higher than hillary clinton's, but both extremely negative opinions from the public. however, it seems like say, as long as donald trump remains a protest vote, we're going to stick with him. >> we have a lot more ahead. so we invite you to stay with us. decision night in america continues our decision 2016 coverage

>> we're looking at the senate results in wisconsin. you will see other wisconsin results in the lower part of your screen. >> let's check out the latest returns in the wisconsin race. the u.s. senate race, ron johnson with 52%, russ feingold with 45%. this is a 57% reporting. let's check the presidential race. donald trump leading right now 49% to hillary clinton's 46%. that is with 57% of the votes reporting. >> that's worth noting these results do not yet include the votes fromwa might take a while as it always does. courtney gerrish is with the trump folks in oshkosh. we'll start with shannon sims with the clinton campaign in milwaukee. >> yes george, everyone is waiting for those numbers to come in from milwaukee county. the mayor spoke to the crowd saying one of the main reasons we would be waiting a few hour because of the in person absentee ballot votes as well as the fact that many of the

again i can tell you that everyone has their eyes glued to the television, glued to the numbers. we recently learned that trump has taken florida, but we are still waiting to get those numbers in for wisconsin. i also spoke with gwen moore that is confident hillary clinton will be able to win wisconsin. again as you are reporting numbers are only 57% reporting, we will continue to watch those numbers through the night can tell you yet again people are watching that screen waiting for more of those numbers to come in. reporting live in milwaukee, shannon sims. let's get to courtney gerrish live with the trump campaign in oshkosh. >> you ran down the numbers earlier a couple percentage points right now. not all numbers have come in yet between trump and clinton in wisconsin. some concern with early voting numbers however in this race.

2012 when it comes to early voters waukesha, washington and ozaukee. he did not -- [cheers and applause] >> we're getting response from the crowd here at the ron johnson campaign. too soon to tell if that early voting is going to have an impact on the numbers tonight and how he does here in wisconsin. we are live in oshkosh, courtney gerrish today's tmj4. house speaker paul ryan won reelection o from the party in janesville charles. >> reporter: folks excited about what they saw happen here and what they are seeing happen across the country and even across wisconsin right now. house speaker paul ryan addressed the crowd thanking them for their support. based on some of the early results he thinks this could be a really good night across america. everyone paying attention to what is going to happen in the u.s. senate race. right now democrats are saying

numbers come in from dane county, that would be a stronghold for the democrats. however, republicans feel pretty confident about the numbers coming out of the wow counties especially waukesha county. things looking tight as expected in that poll. the question is, as you hear some of the reporting at least on the national level, coming out of nbc news, on which states will be now more critical here in these closing hours as we get closer to midnight. what role will wisconsin play in getting one of the 270? historically wisconsin has been blue. but this race, this year, this whole entire election has been so unpredictable, unconventional that it is coming down to that also in those final hours and so could wisconsin play a role on who the next president is going to be? obviously paul ryan looking at that very well knowing who is he going to be working with, in the next term? is it going to be a president clinton or a president trump?

back to you george and carole. >> charles this has been such an untraditional year have you been able to talk to paul ryan about what he is thinking about how he will deal with not only his own party, but trying to unify the entire congress as well? >> we know that paul ryan in these closing hours of the campaign through the weekend, he was out there campaigning for ron johnson as well as telling people he voted for trump and encouraged o republicans to come home and do the same. carole. >> all right. thanks charles. we're going to go to break and return to nbc's decision 2016 coverage and begin our 10:00 news. decision 2016 months of campaigning and it all comes down to this the final polls closing moments ago. many races are still too close

house to the fight for control of the u.s. senate we have crews spread out throughout the state bringing you the latest results. just ahead live reports from janesville, oshkosh, madison and southeast wisconsin. our 2016 coverage starts now. thank you for bringing today's tmj4 your election news coverage. >> we're going to get right into it. >> charles benson live in janesville where paul ryan speaker of the house reelection pretty handlely here. >> the room is glued to what is going to happen on the presidential race. they are watching all of the cable stations and one of the stations now calling florida for donald trump. so it is looking better here for the trump campaign and trump supporters on what the election might look like across the country. there is still a lot of battleground states wisconsin is one of those battleground states. all along in the polling the