we haven't ecb meeting coming up in march. should the ecb do much bigger qe? >> i agree that the solution monetary is not more policy. it won't do the trick. there is still more action to come, and i think it will probably involve deposit rate cuts and more active purchases. alix: you're shaking your head. what you thinking? >> the problem is europe is that we have a set of rules you don't have an the united states about what you can do with fiscal , throwing more responsibility on the european central bank. i think they are certain to buy more assets and broaden the range of assets they buy and to go further into negative rates. i've said before that i don't rates iser european the key to a weaker euro. it is fed tightening. what we will get is an attempt the european bond market, the banks up there -- the bank sector, that are in week shape. that will help somewhat. joe: it sounds like there is a lot of agreement that we need to move beyond here on a terror policy, some hybrid policy. you see that being at all in the cards? >> no, not any time soon. we need

i suppose it is whether or not the ecb will take rates down further and there will be more, sort of, soul-searching about what do negative interest rates -- if the ecb suggests a goes -- as suggested goes down what , does that mean for profitability, and does that have another negative impact? is there any growth out there, which will start -- if you want to alleviate that problem? shery: still ahead, the best interviews of the week. mark cuban on silicon valley, bernie sanders on the supreme court, and the fed president who thinks big banks should be broken up. that is coming up on "bloomberg best." ♪ the conference call. the ultimate arena for business. hour after hour of diving deep, touching base, and putting ducks in rows. the only problem with conference calls: eventually they have to end. unless you have the comcast business voice mobile app. it lets you switch seamlessly from your desk phone to your mobile with no interruptions. i've never felt so alive. make your business phone mobile with voice mobility. comcast business. built for business. ♪ shery: welcome back to "bl

>> that has to be a big worry for the ecb. they were able to take a little bit of the air out of it. it require them to cut rates in the lead up to the december position and now we are getting to 112. that is not a million miles away from where they were shooting last year. the onus is on them to deliver something. guy: but with draghi, it is all about the fed. i read it a few times. he was much more dovish. the inference being, we might have made a mistake here. >> that is the difficulty that anyone facing the u.s. dollar faces. if this is a discernible shift by the federal reserve, it will be difficult for mr. draghi and uroda affect the change they want. jon: glencore of a by 7%, rio up by 6%. you talk about the beating that 2015, itrs took in t looks like the banks are the miners of 2016. guy: you get stocked out so quickly -- it is another factor that will reduce liquidity. they are still standing positive. jon: the results are terrible. this puts pressure on the new ceo. lots to discuss and "the pulse" is coming up on bl

ecb, we bring money to the banks take money from the ecb. they actually bring money to ecb so that's a negative effect. we are not happy with that. although this year we expect a further decline of the rates from the central banks. alix: the labor market is tightening in the u k but that's not doing a lot for paychecks. the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter held at 5.1% for earnings growth slowed to -- 1.9%. near zero inflation is keeping a lid on pay hikes. it's time for our bloomberg quick take where we provide context and background on issues of interest. today's topic -- will great britain leave the european union? a british the parts are from the eu is the biggest threat to the u.k. economy. the eu leaders are meeting in brussels in hopes of securing a deal to keep the u.k. inside the 28 nation bloc. the u.k. is expected to hold and in our out referendum vote by june. many british want to follow a path close to norway and switzerland which are outside the eu. in order to stay, great britain wants changes, powers to with hold payme

up next, the report from the latest ecb meeting drops today. how will the european outlook compared with the fed minutes yesterday? ♪ european equity markets have an open two hours. let's show you what is happening. a little greener than they were around half an hour ago. the stock 600 is on the flatline. the banking sector has come back. london is down. the. bloomberg dividend function check it out because it is important on a thursday for the ftse 100. shell's down 2%. the reason why you're seeing the ftse 100 lower. bbdb. let's show you what is happening in terms of the other asset classes. they are breaking down a little bit. 30.78.l trading dollar-yen trading 1.11379. the yen is up. to be honest it is fairly flat. euro-dollar, 1.1137. reports published later today when investors will look for clues about the central banks action. how much insight is this going to give us about march? >> very good day to be at it would take the comments by president mario draghi at face value after that meeting on january 21. we should see in this summary

it would help if the ecb managed to calm local nerves in the euro area. as i have argued, that would probably help to introduce a little bit more certainty and calm global markets generally and that would help the u.k. francine: how do the different personalities play together? hasmergency brake measure been proposed to avoid an armageddon scenario with brexit. the same time, you have all these other players in the game -- where does donald tufts fit in? philip: he is a key player in the negotiations between the united nations and the european union about concessions which might be granted to britain had of the referendum, which may well take place if things go ok in june. he has got a very difficult position, given that you've got , which effectively have to agree, including the u.k., on a set of concessions. report about, the the conversation about prime minister cameron in the u.k. -- there is some tough work. we do know that the conversations are continuing today. we will probably find out over the next 24-48 hours. francine: this negotiation could no

that is a concern for the ecb, feeds into this whole focus of the markets as to what the ecb will do march 10th. another reason why they continue to move into the bond market. yields move lower. this is where we are. we're now at 10.7 basis points. you remember the all-time low we have back in april with 7.9 on a closing basis. so we're going back down to there. obviously, the people are so concerned about what the ecb might be do. in this instance, not boosting the equity market. let's look where we traded through february on the stock 600. and you'll see here the s&p has cut its losses. you're still losing momentum on the equity market in europe. a lot of that has to do with whether they're going to go further into negative rates and what the effect of that would be on the banks. into this, you also have potentially importantly the guy that used to run the bank of england in the u.k., which is not part of the eurozone notably, suggesting, predicting that the eurozone will collapse. in the new book that he has out. he has been a long-time skeptic. we kind of knew that. now he's sayi

on, ecb president mario draghi speaks to european parliament. on wednesday, it is all focused on the federal reserve released of the minutes from the january fomc. on thursday, this is as though we really hits the high spot. the leaders of 28 eu governments begin a two-day summit in brussels with renegotiation of britain's membership. the terms of it and the refugee crisis are set to dominate. we will have japanese gdp, perhaps even more than expected. has been amex -- hot -- has abenomics failed? we discussed that next. ♪ london,t is 6:19 in 7:19 in frankfurt. check out the u.s. routers. they are on a tear this morning. we have the asian market update. the dow jones up just under 1%. have these markets seen the bottom? you can see the topics rise by over 8%. u.s. equity futures on a run higher. caroline hyde is here. caroline: hsbc has decided to keep its global headquarters in london, saying the u.k. is an important and globally-connected economy. the decision was passed unanimously on monday following 10 months of debate. hsbc has been base

apparently the ecb remained really stable in this rate. also the rating agency, they did not make any move asking the banks to do more for the future. >> there are two main banks in europe, it was true 20 years ago, and it's true today. >>> when we come back, zillow facing some challenges in the fourth quarter. stock is down. what is the outlook for the rest of the year and how big is their market? looking for 24/7 digestive support? try align for a non-stop, sweet-treat-goodness hold-onto-your-tiara, kind-of-day. live 24/7 with 24/7 digestive support. try align, the undisputed #1 ge recommended probiotic. >>> despite the plunging temperatures for much of the northeast, this month marks the start of the spring housing market. it is unlike any other for a variety of reasons. diana olick has more. >> two big reasons, mortgage rates and listings for sale. both extremely low. let's start with the popular 30-year fixed mortgage, it hit 3.5% yesterday, one quarter point away from the record low rate set back in 2012. we started this year over 4%

>> the answer is more policy action area all eyes will yet again be on the ecb. especially going into their next meeting on march 10. in terms of what policy actions could help us regain the confidence, market confidence in the banking sector, in particular, it will be more measures to boost the bank capital base or indeed boost investor confidence in the banking sector. mark: meanwhile, the euro continues in winning balance. it has risen 10 of the last 12 days against the dollar. it is up roughly 4% in that time. is drahgi scratching his head right now or will we soon see a decline in the euro? we are seeing is not doing a lot of what president draghi has tried and achieved in the last three years. the latest moves in the stock make it -- market are risking the health of the lending challenge -- channel in the eurozone, quite important for the growth outlook in the eurozone. the next measure from the ecb -- i'm not sure europe features that prominently anymore. it is the health of the banks and and storing -- restoring investor confidence in the lending channels

my assessment is because the bank of japan wants to do more, because the ecb wants to do more. because the chinese are doing more but nobody knows exactly what, we now have turned the corner. doing more show cases less and less and less confidence. i ghif the fed an a. i have rarely given the fed an a. normalization in mid december is better than never. they are on the right path. by other major economies or developing economies going the other way doubling down what that has done is it has show cased the reasoning. and the reasoning is things are getting worse. and when i look at washing machines being effected in terms of the service sector, listen, if you want to get a washing machine fixed do you care what the exchange rate is? no but if your confidence is negatively effected by the global economy as a consumer you're most likely going to show up in those statistics because the service sector is growing but at the weakest pace in 23 months. john, back to you. >> important to keep an eye on. thank you, rick. coming up, oil prices spiking this morning above $30 barrel. now up

there is also another benefit is the ecb does take this, sir purr mario draghi could fight crime. they are trying to curb the ability of terrorists and many launderers doors to use cash for their illicit activities. this has taken on new urgency after the attacks in paris. of course, they would have to get their hands all the notes first. evidencethere is no that they are causing cash warning. to bruise from jpmorgan, and he reiterates we've not seen that move into cash. there are other thing the central bank could do to discourage money holding, like taking the notes on a circulation together. scarlet: they declined to comment on their plans, but this would be a decision for the governing council to make. alix: we have a $500 bill here? scarlet: i do not think so. [laughter] today was the best day for european banks since 2012. it was a very tough week. what is behind the selloff, and how problematic as it? we will discuss. ♪ mark: let's get the first word news. the world health organization says possible zika vaccines are at least 18 months away from large-scale trials. in was

when did start to collapse, when the fed was tapering and the ecb a negative deposit right. if you look at it in those terms, there's been a choke off, a reflection of dollar demand. it becomes a very different story. been a wild since we asked about the geopolitical implications. stephen his pointing out the last oil collapse led to the algeria civil war. is there the potential for geopolitical instability? andreas: certainly. there's huge potential for geopolitical instability. you don't have to go far to look for that. what is going on in the u.s. is certainly very concerning because of not so much potential outcome, but what it tells you winderhe angst that the population is feeling. we have a similar situation in the u.k., potential for upset in france. the middle class isn't happy. vonnie: specifically related to oil. andreas: absolutely. there's a huge potential for conflagration. iran, theabout syria, u.s. not being able to choose between the two. this is highly flammable, forgive the pun, but very difficult to predict. thate not trying to factor too much into our de

note, goldman sachs has a note out talking about liquidity in the ecb. they are 700 million euros less this period than they were in 2012 at the height of the crisis. factine: you mentioned the that deutsche bank did tell us they did not need to raise additional capital. let's have a listen to what the cfo told guy johnson. what have a clear view on amount of money is necessary on the restructuring side. clear view onve a what we think we need to invest into driving down our non core units. but we have some flexibility in doing some of that, in particular as it relates to our non core unit. in that sense we feel like we can manage the way over the next 12-18 months, which will be tight. see,rom all what we can we think it is absolutely doable. francine: that was the cfo of deutsche bank. the markets are testing his resolve. hans: yeah, how much flexibility to have in their non core markets. he is indicating they have quite a bit of flexibility. it is going to be tight. the markets are wondering how tight it is going to be. when you look at what happened

we have a ridiculous situation where banks are having to pay to deposit money with the ecb, and the result of that is they will charge more to lend to their customers which suggests the , amount of customers borrowing and already depressed europe. so we will see mpl's already higher than they should be and will get worse. we have the potential shop -- potential shock coming in from market events. i go along about these weapons of financial mass destruction, the at1 bonds. i think there is a good chance we will see other cocoa bonds. that will generate a wave of negativity. at the end of the first quarter, we will see a lot of holders of these bonds who wake up they are no longer price at par but some of them all the way down into the 70's, and they have to sell them. so you get a wave of selling hitting the market, and that a bank process further. the question -- is this separate between banks and buybacks? no, it is not. jonathan: it was all about distance to trigger. there is very little that there will be anything trigger. -- there's very little danger any of these will be triggered. cl

the german finance minister saying easy money could cause the next crisis, while the ecb board member telling cnbc that concerns are overblown. >> there are no signs whatsoever for the time being that there are unintended consequences, that these are surprises. it is not there. >> violating the constitution. apple unveils its stinging response to a u.s. court order saying the fbi is seeking a, quote, dangerous power in its request to unlock the iphone. >>> hi, everybody. good morning officially. how are you? >> very well. >> end of the week, right? >> and markets here trying to strike out on a good note. >> looking at our european markets, that indeed seems to be the case. we're higher by just over 1.5%. we closed in positive territory yesterday. quite strongly for some of these markets in yesterday's session. you have a lot of people looking closely at what's going on out at g-20 and whether or not we're going to get coordinated efforts, or talk about coordinated efforts. no one is expecting anything concrete out of this meeting. brief glance shows an all-green screen. there's a litt

of what we hear when european banks are at risk is oh, no worries, mario draghi has your back, the ecb will help you, there is a lot of liquidity. in terms of profitability, mario draghi cannot help them with that. chris: you're right. it was fascinating last week on the day deutsche bank was plunging, lloyd blankfein was speaking at a conference, and his words were, the european banks have access to ample amounts of funding, and he was more worried about the counterparts, the suggestion of that, the share price performance. european banks in most cases have got a long, long way to go until they actually get way

he is more fragile because of the german influence on the ecb. i expect more action before the middle of the year. tom: david stubbs with us, thank you so much. wolfango piccoli with us as well. -- theup next, the port idea of oil. will get an update from citigroup. we have a fragile handle yesterday. stay with us on the "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ tom: there is one bar in new york city looking at six nations rugby. exactly one bar, it is on 1st avenue at the boston at bowery. one of the reasons caroline hyde is in london, she is our bloomberg is a splash. she is getting ready for more six nations rugby. caroline: goals is rallying for an eighth straight day. sinces the first time june. demand for gold has risen. the european union installed record wind power capacity last year. wind powert the leapfrogged hydropower to become the first in the area. tesla have fallen to a two-year low. there are concerns that cheap gas is hurting demand. they will report fourth-quarter earnings after the bell tomorrow. and that is the bloomberg business flash.

it does not look like the ecb can touch it. co-year german does better than it was pretty look at the german -- the german two-year better than it was. here is my morning must-read. it is on a theme that we should talk about more. i have been a failure on this -- venezuela matters. kahn.t tom: shannon o'neil is with us on this informative note. what is the desperation level? i cannot get a handle on it. what is the level of desperation? what does it mean for us? shannon: it is really high. when you look at the backup -- at the back of the envelope calculations, what they probably need to pay debt to buy food, medicine, and other things, is $50 million. how do you make that up? it is almost impossible. tom: mexico is close to us and so is cuba, but look at venezuela -- how close is venezuela politically, economically, to us? shannon: a lot of its oil is refined here. sit go is owned by the venezuelan government. i think the real question for venezuela is, it touches many other american countries -- ecuador, peru, brazil -- so wh

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year now just two weeks away from the next ecb meeting. speculation is rife that the central bank might announce further measures. let's get to the julia chatterley. pleasure to see you there in frankfu frankfurt. we know mr. weidman has been a critic of the central bank easing so far. any reason to expect he'll be changing his tune? >> reporter: this is the question because if we look at the data coming out of germany, there are reasons to be concerned. look at the manufacturing pmis. look at some of the business confidence as well. the ifo survey numbers we got out, down for the third consecutive month. the sharpest decline we've seen since 2008. there's a number of elements here. then look at the growth. ultimately strong domestic demand, construction strong, government spending. so to what extent does the domestic economy offset some of the concerns more broadly about the external environment? i think this is the crucial question for the bank president here. how concerned is he about the volatility we've seen, the impact it's having no

ecb policy is working, and still flexible. he's reiterating what we got from ben would curry, another member of the bank earlier today when he said the review and possibly a recalibration would be on the cards. what will be interesting is whether he also warns the markets not to get ahead of themselves. another senior member of the european central bank said earlier today the market should be careful not to have unrealistic expectations of what they could deliver march 10 as happened back in december. in the meantime, let's look at the individual stocks moving today. kicking off with the italian banks, thank you very much. it is clear now that populary and italy and the government is desperate for some sort of merger activity to strengthen the banks. they are going to come through with that, they say within a month. other banks around the eurozone area have been following, as you can see, in the uk. the oil majors are down with what is happening with oil. let's have a look at some of those that certainly stat oil is down, bp i

i think that all fits the picture of monetary easing by the ecb in march. that also fits the picture of one further leg down in the euro. i stick to my view that as we go into the second quarter, we will see dollar-euro probably close to 105. >> monetary easing as in further into negative interest rates? >> i think there's a high probability we'll see a further move into negative interest rates. i think that we could see a situation in the bund market similar to the jgb market. i think we could see a further yield down to unthinkable levels to perhaps only ten basis points. i think we'll also see with qe -- and potentially, what draghi could do, which would be dramatic, which i don't think is discounted, is an increase in qe. >> okay. i hear the speculation starting already. bob, thank you very much. >> thank you. >> bob parker, senior adviser for investment strategy and research at credit suisse. >>> now, the so-called london whale has broken almost four years of silence. he's accusing his former employer, jpmorgan chase, of letting him take the blame for

ecb has wrapped more slowly. so in that sense, the ecb has made life more difficult for everybody by coming to the table late and doing completely opposite to what the fed is doing. >> nicole: you through me for a look when the fed acted quickly. you said in 2008-2009 when you were cutting rates, so we know exactly what you're speaking about. peter, request is the little glimpse of hope if any? >> peter: that's a good question. >> nicole: just sit tight or what? >> peter: just sit tight for a moment. what will trigger a bottom. i think if the fed passes in march that will give us a fire-break, markets will look at the extension of the decline in resent months, maybe it's time to reevaluate the position but it's going to take a while. it's going to take a number of weeks before markets can finally see some light at the end of this tunnel. >> lauren: peter dixon thank you so much at commerzbank. we'll be right back >> nicole: check out what's going on in asia, hang seng down 3.8%. kospi down and china and japan clo

the ecb stepping in, and to some extent at least cutting the death loop we had several years ago. >> this is also what is so ironic about the situation. a lot of these regulatory changes were because of moral hazard. essentially we just have moral hazard of the sovereign level. imagine if you had druggie come in and say i will buy more peripheral bonds. any pressure you had goes away. i think that is the exact opposite of what you want. d?y: where does that en everybody came in saying europe will do well this year and we have had a number of houses on this program talking about the fact that you want long peripheral debt,. and you wan to buy plenty of european stocks because they will outperform. so what is it going to take to get people back, convinced that europe is on the right track? >> what you would like to see is a hawkish tone from the fed. imagine how things were at the beginning, everyone was overweight in europe and as soon as that goes away and everyone is positioned for that trade it goes in the other direction, hence the extreme reaction. guy: the fed was -- >> as long

we began to see talk of policy response in the ecb. people want to hear the fed say we are going to cave as well. the worrying thing about this, and we are getting concerned about the dollar because it has but here is the difficult thing. there is still this massive gap between u.s. interest rate -- they priced in no chance of the fed going at all. manus: and then you look at the terminal rate. we had an article this morning and the economists are saying to 5 when we get there. i and not supposed to be subjective, but it seems like the fed handcuffed at a .25% hike. carney tethered to the batteries of the brexit. japan went negative. i cannot see any of them getting off zero. michael: you said there was a warning shot from carney. i thought the clip you were going to use was the bit where he said that the rate expectations had gone too far. that was a clear warning shot. manus: he keeps saying that, you have all gone so far. michael: it is true. obviously, as always, they forecast and get the target in two years time. but he belabored

we're hearing dovish tones coming from mario draghi to the ecb. to the rescue. we are seeing a significant rebound in russia and saudi arabia. are they likely to talk or likely to cut supply. the ftse 100 up 0.8%. exposed the most beaten up stocks of the past few months. by 0.25% as they make that deal with liberty global. we open up generally 0.8% higher across the board. look what is happening to oil. we are up some 5.6%. $35.27. would russia commit to scale back? would they want to? with gold we are seeing the risk aversion play out. down 1%.asuries this number could go all the way down to 1100 in three months time, by the middle of may. they say it is time to get out and go short over all. mainly the biggest thing to fear is the fear itself. the presidential quote we are using on president's day. u.s. treasury sell off up some three basis points and meanwhile, money moves into the riskier debt and italy. let's have a look at some of the stocks on the move today. anglo american opens up and they are up in johannesburg. dispose ofking to assets. have four stra

you thought the ecb was going one way and the fed was going the opposite direction. it is not. what does that mean for the forecast? richard: the key element here is that, i think all the central banks david mentioned -- rewind back to the end of december. we have either had dovish action or expectations completely flipped. i think the big driver was the fed. we had the fed saying, markets not quite buying into that. now there nothing priced in this year. jon: janet yellen didn't throw in the towel on the nothing. she's still looking to do something. backu think she can push against the market? has she got to accept this is what the markets are doing? her testimony didn't suggest a woman that has given up. guy: look at the direction of travel. listen to her in december. it is out there. listen to it and listen to that testimony. she is still talking about the probability of rate hikes, but listen to the spread that has opened up. it really is quite significant. she is significantly more dovish than. show, you take over on "surveillance" with tom keene. guy: that is going to be

is there a communication problem by the ecb? >> no, it is clear that the current price developments warrant forward monetary policy debate. the crisis has a major influence on prices. to what extent is the fact that the effect of the medium-term inflation outlook -- >> would you make it clear you are focusing on this medium-term? >> it is obvious that we are focusing on the medium-term. we need a debate on the necessity to act and then we can have a debate on the instruments at our disposal. talking about having a mitigating effect for banks if they end up taking interest rates lower. do you think that is even structurally possible to even have some sort of tiered system? is thatmatters for us we don't get counterproductive effects. you want to have a transmission of monetary impulses on prices at the end. it are measures produce the opposite of what we want, it would not be smart to raise in the first place. we always have to design our measures in a way to make sure they are powerful and effective. >> you are open to the idea

that is the big challenge for the ecb. fran: antonio, thank you so much. we have plenty more coming your way. we also have earnings from noble group. lost 1.7 compared to a net income profit last year of $132 million. it seems a lot of the earnings are disappointing. how does that play into fundamentals in the economy? we will also be listening to st. louis fed president james bullard. he says low inflation expectations shouldn't be ignored. ♪ fran: this is "the pulse." we speak about central banks, look at the markets, talk investment. the challenges facing central banks are worrying the bankers the most. james bullard is also an fomc voting member this year. he says the decline represents an erosion of central bank credibility. >> i regarded as unwise to continue the mobilization strategy in an environment of declining market expectations. the decline in inflation expectations represents erosion of central bank credibility. guests,t's bring in our antonio garcia pasqual at barclays and paolo scaroni at rothchild. also a little bit of an expert in energ

what happens to the ecb when they start pushing it. there was a study that was released i think today finding that 45% of the bonds out there are not qualified to be purchased by the ecb for various reasons and so they might be pushed to buy bank bonds. aren't we just transferring the risk in the system from the private sector to the central bank? >> yeah, i would say there is a series of ways to do that. i think that what the ecb is doing is expanding their basket and doing more in terms of municipalities, in terms of covered bonds, doing more in terms of corporate. there are ways to do it that are effectively where you're not taking that much risk on to the ecb's balance sheet, senior debt, covered debt, but that is a more effective -- that's much more effective mechanism than just dropping the interest rate to severely low levels or negative levels and hoping the transmission follows. >> rick rieder, thank you very much. sorry we couldn't see you in person. happy to have you on the phone from black rock. >>> james bullard will guest

ecb% since the december meeting went surprised many by not being as buoyant as it could have been. our central bankers finding it difficult to weaken their currencies? look at the yen since the negative interest rate policy. the yen is now higher despite plunging on friday. is this going to prove a headache? -- theyt is a headache were talking about lining up more stimulus in march but the doj is stimulating more and we simply don't know in terms of guidance but the best guess is they are going to loosen further over the course of 2016. it is a race to the bottom. very difficult to restore competitors when all your competitors are doing the same game. is the next move in u.k. interest rates? give me the month and the year. [laughter] 2017 for me, i think we're still 12 months out from here. mark: there you go. simon, good to see you. betty, february 2017. he put his neck on the block. go.y: there we you pin them down. let's get a quick check on how stocks are moving right now. a big pair back of what we have seen. the s&p and nasdaq rapidly losing steam. on.dell is barely holding a

i'm pretty sure on the ecb side, they do with a have to do to get inflation up in europe. small it open economy, what matters to us is what happens in the ecb in terms of the inflation rate. there inflation rate is low. then it was time for us to act. i'm curious about a central bank war. we like to criticize brazil about managing their capital flows. is your action today presumed to be getting out front of mario draghi, the beginning of a new bout of major central bank war or battle to staunch deflation fears? tell whatcannot central banks are likely to do in the future. we took note of the fact that in our case, inflation came in lower. as far as we can judge, inflation is on the low side and other places as well. for these reasons, we felt it was time to act. >> stocks around the world may be plunging but one is staying in the green, air castle. shares are flying high after fourth-quarter earnings resulted well above estimates. >> the company which owns leases and sells commercial aircrafts all over the world and treated growth to the successful investments it has made

the ecb is doing a great job. my view is that they should continue to do so. countries, we the should do the best to facilitate the transmission of qe toward the economy which, in the case of italy, includes dealing with the banking system. >> in that attempt to try to get growth to spread, to pick up a bit, do you think italy has the right allies in the year in commission? is this something where you are automatically in a battle with the germans? >> i think there is a battle with the germans and a battle for a stronger euro zone. we need more growth area let's not forget that we are not -- we should not be satisfied with the amount of job creation which is the ultimate signal of economic policy is working. >> as an economist, you will often talked about the role of opening up an economist. do you see that as the european union's great opportunity in terms of the regulation and opening up the european union? >> europe grows whenever there is more integration and liberalization inside europe here it also, it could

we got negative ratings for the ecb. and for the bank of japan. manus: and they were also asked about how much lower this lower bond rate could go, and for how much longer. what came through their? re? jeff: right, we are stretching into 2018 and negative rates. for the major economies. and we're going down as far as minus one for the swiss central bank. it probably has to go to the lowest depth because it is surrounded by the euro area, the kind of dead weight of the euro area. that will be continuing to ease. manus: jeff, thanks for that sort of fairly fascinating read. one of the main stories, most read stories on the bloomberg terminal today. jeff, thank you very much in frankfurt. now we go to saker from her mes. 63 economist miami, they are slamming this view. we will get to 2% inflation. ker: a just tells you that the central banks have reached the end of what they can do. and you can bring in interest rates to zero, but it is questionably by some economists, whether the interest rates follow orlene economy. let us assume they lead the econ

the ecb will review and may boost its stimulus in march as goal ofslumped to a below 2%. global news, 24 hours a day. from the bloomberg first word desk, i nejra cehic. guy: thank you. nejrea bringing us up to speed. let's bring it to mark barton. index against its global peers -- the dollar sank by 1.7%. this is the bloomberg dollar spot index year to date, falling to its lowest level since december. $esterday's 1.7# wiping ou% wiping out its yearly gains. it expanded at the lowest level since 2014. the odds of even one rate hike in 2016 is now below 50%. now we look ahead to tomorrow's u.s. jobs report, which could determine whether the dollar selloff continues. economists forecast that it will he u.s. created fewer than 200,000 jobs in september. interesting words from the senior market strategist at the rbs in singapore. he says the dollar weakness looks like a correction within its multiyear bull run. two big fed officials have spoken in the last 24 hours. they said policymakers need to take into account tighter financial conditions when they need to next month to de

with perhapsing the exception of the fed, boj, fed, ecb, but 6-7 years of rates at these levels. what have we achieved? >> that is my point. we have been 5-7 years, even longer if you look at japan, relatively low to 0% interest rates with growth to prove -- with little growth to prove ford animals no inflation. how effective has this monetary policy been. monetarywhat this policy has been effective at initially is countries trying to use lower interest rates through lower the currency to try and grow their economy at the expense of another economy. happened is every other central bank has been lowered their interest rates to not allow their economy to be the victim of someone else's growth. >> they're not going to say that publicly. >> no, but that in essence is what has happened. lower interest rates, no higher growth, no inflation. our historicok, policies are not working. why is that? it's relatively simple. if you look at what has happened over the last couple of decades, the amount of transparency we have an markets and the amount of fungibility we have an markets is extrao

will the ecb tried to calm the market. are they going back-and-forth with deutsche bank on how they can maybe offer a little more clarity? >> we have confirmation on the story that bloomberg news reported yesterday. deutsche bank is indeed going to buy back some of its debt. it looks about like 3 billion euros are $2 million. or $2 million. >> that's right. ending a quite crazy roller coaster week, this is a five-day chart. we started the week with concerns that deutsche would not be able to pay the coupons on its riskiest debt. deutsche coming out saying, of course it would be able. then there were rumors that it would buy back debt shares. today shares were rising ahead of this news. since the news half an hour ago shares have shot up. , interestingly, over the week, shares are actually down by 1%. it's been a quite incredible volatile week. they fell 6% on thursday. they up over 10% today. it has been quite an incredibly volatile week. david: what do you make of the move? the market is responding well. it makes a lot of

ecb center of circulation right here over california. all these bands heading towards us. salt lake city into nevada and colorado and all the snow was going to continue to strengthen off to these. -- the east. of course the snow very intense for denver, all the way up towards rapid city. a continues to push off to the north and east. especially throughout minneapolis. a lot of snowfall. even iowa will be impacted on the day of the caucus. you can see this long line of storms that is beginning to set up tuesday afternoon. could see some severe outbreaks here. getting quite pronounced on our predictor model from florida all the down to the england. a huge band of showers. could bring some strong storms are way. look at this. more than 14-20 inches of snow possible out west. many areas dealing with blizzard conditions and winds in excess we will see overnight tonight fairly mild 44 in roxboro. 48 here in fayetteville. things very similar in clinton. a light jacket needed in the morning. by 10:00 already 57 degrees. partly sunny conditions. tomorrow afternoon many of us will l

we are see ing the ecb can suddenly say i think this capital can be accepted. and their capital base is fine. it gets to a place that's how cheap ? can it over trade. >> are you long? >> it's a case where the banks are getting cheap. i think there is a bit of a fire storm. >> before we let you go when you say the banks can rally you mean specifically the european banks? >> the european banks are the cheapest in the world. the u.s. banks probably join them. you are talking about .3 times book in some cases. u.s. banks are trading at 90% of book and european banks at 60%. >> are you with or against, larry? >> is the clock striking midnight for deutsche bank? that's somewhat obscure. >> it is to me. >> the song we led in with from the movie "midnight cowboy." i will say this. i'm in the b.k. camp here. we event talked about the $70 trillion derivative book. can it get to zero? probably not. >> larry macdonald coming up worried about a resession. we're going shopping for safety next. plus, why traders are making a huge bearish bet on a key part of the credit market

we had a bet two years ago who would raise rates first, the fed or ecb. i said the fed, he said the ecb, he owes me dinner. >> very good. >>> we've only got about a minute or so left. let's highlight the main things we're watching today. for me, it's sterling, which has fallen in one of its worst days. 1.3% or so. 1.6% down, apologies. 1.4165. sa sara, after the uk election, we hit 1.67. >> i'm going to be watching the consumer section. yes, names like netflix and amazon in there, but also the retailers and consumers, it's going to be a big week of earnings for them. we'll see if that carries them through. and what they say on the conference calls. watch consumer discretionary. >> right. >>> results of our twitter poll -- is political risk adequately priced into markets? 53%, no. does that surprise you? >> yes, as we get things like the refer reendureferendum, we o that. as we get closer to the elections. >>> "squawk box" is coming up. next, very good morning to you. ♪ oh remotes, you've had it tough. watching tvs get sharper, bigger, smugger. and you?

about what do negative interest rates -- if the ecb suggests it goes down, what does that mean for profitability, and does that have another negative impact? is there any growth out there, which will start -- if you want to alleviate that problem? shery: still ahead, the best interviews of the week. mark cuban on silicon valley bernie sanders on the supreme court, and the fed president who thinks big banks should be broken up. that is coming up on "bloomberg best." ♪ ♪ shery: welcome back to "bloomberg best." i am shery ahn. it has been a week of controversial conversations on bloomberg television. bernie sanders describes his ideal supreme justice. minnesota fed president neel kashkari explains why he is open to breaking up the biggest u.s. banks. let's begin at the nba all-star weekend where stephanie ruhle went one-on-one with dallas mavericks owner and noted tech disruptor mark cuban. mark: in silicon valley, they are in their own little world. they have insulated themselves they have lost touch with reality. you have kids that graduate from this school or that school with an idea that t

it begs the question what can ecb president mario draghi due to the base this currency? on the a couple of days ago he reiterated that they are considering looking at stimulus again in march and the only currency this week that hasn't fallen against the euro is the japanese yen and as we know, since last friday, when the instigated this negative interest rate strategy, it is trading higher against the dollar. they are finding it difficult to push their currencies in that direction. today's jobsng at report and a particular, the participation rate. up .1%.it took it is not quite as the increase that our next guest was looking for, but it is the highest since last april. continuing to grow at about 1% a year. i am wondering if the more dynamic u.s. economy, or if it will need to be even better participation. we are 19 minutes into trading day in the u.s.. not only stephen, but broughton, as well, in terms of the number of stocks falling to rising. the nasdaq's losses have extended to 2.2%. even as the dow and the s&p fall by more than 1% each. when i say that losses are br

we will see that the ecb has run out of ammunition. it will underwhelm again. 1.60.e i am quite comfortable with those at high conviction views that we are holding at hsbc. francine: you do not think we will go into negative territory? think they will shove the interest rates ever lower. they may have to move again later in the year. for currencyrates -- we have seen in sweden, denmark, japan, negative rates are not driving to weaker currencies. tom: we are seeing new bouts of curve flattening this morning. we are at a recent record, curve flattening with jack lew's point to spread. lew's .2 spread. the big picture, six months view, is how do you tactically play it? tom: how do you play the three-month, two-year flattening? daragh: one currency you have not mentioned yet is gold. it is a safe haven and it does not have an intervention threat. clean. maybe that is the winner in all of this. tom: i may need to rip up the script and come back and talk gold with him. well, heel at hsbc as has decided to go long on gold as well. on bloomber

ll we re b ththatthwie laves pa uccaatis, in aler d th p teicee, ecbe atsuwi he thb ct et ouet y rnhefaisp. soonblormofemalsth kaaldsof an n. se rs renewr wn iniasd d astofiisise tht iin asasibthn d ett heseck the >>> a vote on a plan that would affect health care costs for all state employees. >> we are are seeing rain, could we see something else. we are ready for sunshine after all the rain. >> it's 6:30, i'm bill leslie. >> i'm renee chou. we will check in with kathryn brown. we will check in with elizabeth gardner to tell us what is falling right now. >> it's all falling apart. take a look. we will check out the radar. tracking this band of heavier precipitation, it's been see where it's darker, i think the potential, north western portion of moore county. robins, 7 lakes, you might see this. reports of sighler city, chatham light snow. elsewhere, around the viewing area, it's too light and it's beginning to really weaken and fall apart to the west. there might be a flake or two that flys across the area. that's the end you see in greensboro. the skies will clear quickly. we will have