will the ecb tried to calm the market. are they going back-and-forth with deutsche bank on how they can maybe offer a little more clarity? >> we have confirmation on the story that bloomberg news reported yesterday. deutsche bank is indeed going to buy back some of its debt. it looks about like 3 billion euros or $2 million. >> that's right. ending a quite crazy roller coaster week, this is a five-day chart. we started the week with concerns that deutsche would not be able to pay the coupons on its riskiest debt. deutsche coming out saying, of course it would be able. the wen by 1%. on monday, 4% on tuesday. rose on wednesday but fell on thursday and now they are up over 10% today. it has been a volatile week. >> what do you make of this? >> the market is responding well. ,heir debt has been crushed basically, in recent weeks and they can step back at less than the issued at and it makes a lot of sense. they can reduce their leverage and it sends a signal to the market to say that they have cash on hand. they are not worri

two weeks ago and the ecb. >> thank you so much. meanwhile tim cook defending apple's encryption fight against the government. in an interview cook saying the public spat but apple in what he says, a quote, uncomfortable position. take a listen. >> this is not a position we would like to be in. it is a very uncomfortable position. to oppose your government on something doesn't feel good and to oppose it on something where we are advocating for civil liberties which they are supposed to protect it is incredibly ironic. >> should apple investors in light of that begin to feel uncomfortable too? gene, the stock has been up slightly since this became a public conversation but there's no sense in how this will resolve itself. is it too soon to start talking about the brand impact on apple? >> no, it's the right question to ask because that's what investors want to know is how is this ultimately going to impact sales. if you look back, security has always been part of apple's brand. whether it's secrecy around new products or apple pay an

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will the ecb try to calm the market? if not with a public statement, are they going back-and-forth with deutsche bank on how they can maybe offer a little more clarity? >> we have confirmation on the story that bloomberg news reported yesterday. deutsche bank is indeed going to buy back some of its debt. it looks like about 3 billion euros or $2 billion. >> mark what is going on over there? >> that's right. buying back bonds. ending a quite crazy roller coaster week, this is a five-day chart. we started the week with concerns that deutsche would not be able to pay the coupons on its riskiest debt. deutsche coming out saying, of course it would be able. then there were rumors that it would buy back debt shares. today shares were rising ahead of this news. since the news half an hour ago, shares have shot up. interestingly, over the week, shares are actually down by 1%. they fell 9% monday, they fell 4% tuesday, they rose 10% wednesday, they fell 6% thursday, and they are up over 10% today. it has been quite an incredibly

or expansion in the ecb balance rate. >> you've just been talking about trying to call the bottom here when it comes to certain miner, commodity prices. how do you view the sector in europe? >> i think some commodity prices like oil are probably going to be a little choppy over the next three to six months. what we're looking at industry to start coming down but we generally think the oil prices are going to end the year higher than now. on the other commodities, thing like copper. >> i'm still trying to figure out what you as a global market strategist, what you'd tell your clients with regards to the year ahead. we've hadn't atrocious beginning to the year. january was horrible for equity investors out there. do you tell them to sit tight? do you really say, you go, gear up on your oil protection as you were talk about? do you take a wait and see stance? what do you communicate to people who want to be actively engaged in the market? >> i think firstly, now is not the time to be selling. there are going to be opportunities to selloff. you need to sadd risk. both of those markets, the

we've seen the effect of what the ecb as done. as an example we have a ten we're jermaine rate of 0.21%. i wonder and i think everyone should wonder if they keep doing this and keep driving rates down the 10 year japanese yield is now under zero, where we're going with this and what that does especially to investors and to money that people are saving for their retirement you're creating a very, in my opinion, a very dangerous situation and i don't think anybody knows where this is going because we're in very unchartered territory. >> yeah. you say recession and i assume you're talking just a global slow down, mark, because it's a lag thing. we don't have that here yet. but you figure it's coming. it's on the horizon in 2016 in the united states? >> yes, i do, joe. i think we're in a global recession, not a meltdown, just a recession, a norm cycle. look at where treasurys are. there's some belief in that. >> hard to raise rates when you talk basic points around the world. thank you. >> thank you, joe. >>> when we come back, the sc

guy: the boj and the ecb. that isary stimulus potentially out there. we have to wait for the march meeting of the ecb to know what direction they will take. jonathon: we appreciate your time. up next, taking a bite out of apple, google parent alphabet is set to become the world most valuable company topping the iphone company. ftse 100 at a session low down by 40 points this morning. ♪ guy: welcome back. .onathon: "on the move" this is we are 22 minutes into the session. the ftse 100 down by .7 of 1%. the dax also down by .5 of 1%. the energy majors in focus. switch up the board. by 5.26% this morning. profit down by 91%. the upstream business, the production side of things, people expected that to be ugly. negative views for the oil major this morning. on to u.s. markets, the world's most valuable company could be replaced by another tech titan. alphabet is on track to leapfrog apple after the earnings result per share was up after hours. here is caroline hyde. a decent set of numbers but is this about alphabets/google or more about apples decline f

ecb -- you can see the smoke billowing. she was hit by a stray bullet. >> a 56-year-old woman is in the hospital. she was injured when gunfire erupted on this property. the sheriff's office says three cars pulled up, there was some sort of altercation, and shots were fired. >> a bunch of them. elaina: it happened yesterday at 6:00. he was with the victim. >> i did newman know she was here. she kept saying, i am here. heather: he said he has no idea who is on his property, putting lives in danger. some folks in the neighborhood saw the car speed away after the shooting and gave the sheriff's office the description. >> it was a pickup truck. a small green sedan, possibly involved. a red charger. if anyone is listening, saw something, we need to know. heather -- elaina: the eyewitness says the victim was hit by a bullet. she is at the hospital, and is expected to be ok. heather: thank you. without warning, coming up on eyewitness news, the problem after this deadly tornado in virginia. what did not happen in the minutes before

we have the bank of japan and ecb pushing us into negative rates. i think that's what setting alarm bells ringing within the market. i think investors are getting worried about the outright level of yields and taking some profits but also the volatility that's being exacerbated by these central banks. i think it will continue for our little longer. >> exacerbated perhaps by the central banks. we also have to keep in perspective when we talk about the moves we saw in the japanese market today, thin trading there due to the holiday. concerns over volatility there as well. but overall, i think this gets to the point if the safe haven trade continues, where should investors go? >> absolutely. we've seen the chinese are on holiday this week. we'll see what happens when they come back. obviously the china story is a big concern for the global markets as a whole, as is oil. if you're looking for safe haven, if you're looking to part your cash, i think u.s. ten-year treasuries offer relatively good value. we're going to get janet yellen talking on wednesday

it is been consistently my view, let's say with monetary easing by the ecb in two weeks time/ draghi, having said in early december he was going to ease monetary policy then didn't i think he is building up a credibility problem. ano think there will be easing in monetary policy for stuff they may mean more negative interest rates and an an expansione, and of the asset classes. all of that translates, i think, into one for the leg down in the euro. i stick to my view that in the second quarter we'll probably see 1.02 dollar euro. be longerat has to dollar, and recent dollar weakness i think was an opportunity to buy the dollar. guy: lousaka what that in a few minutes. bob will stay with us. the next, spain's largest electorate reports earning. we speak with the chairman, and ceo. ♪ guy: 7:44 in london, the market is flat. that is what we are expecting. the focus is on the pound. let's talk to nejra. ejra: airbus boosted profits as it ramped up delivery of the latest model. to four point one 3 billion euros, that compares with analysts forecast. iwith guy.e live even jpmorgan is not

the ecb did that in 2011. they are pulling -- they are pushing. to on the easing program. policymakers are likely to reverse course this year. jonathan: where come to the end of the current credit cycle. i wonder if the central banks can put off the in focus. the fed could cut rates again, maybe. .he ecb clearly done more the bank of japan going into negative territory, set to do even more. can they continue to do desk can they continue to kick the can just downoad guy: >> the road? >> they can continue to do so. we are talking about negative rates. this is the new trend that is emerging increasingly. one that doesn't get talked about much is currencies. in a globalized economy, currency can be a major force. who havehe chinese been pretty of right in terms of what they're trying to do with currency. but currency is a talk. the risk of a currency war is not to be overlooked either. year,y don't cut this there is the possibility that treasuries can come under a lot of pressure did this is an asset -- because itple is overvalued. if they do not make a move, you can see a lot

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our clients don't really want to know about the ecb or boj. what they want to know is this 2008 all over again? obviously from our point of view, it's vastly different. this is not the same kind of scenario. we've seen a lot of deleveraging, particularly in the u.s. markets. we do think for the long-term investor, this is something of an opportunity. but i would caution if you do have cash, i would scale back into this market over time. i don't think the developments of the last 48 hours, as i say, represent a durable rally. i do think there are some opportunities. you'll get rewarded eventually. >> how do we explain a 13% drop for the nasdaq just this year? that's a big decline, david. >> yeah, and it's somewhat puzzling. it almost feels as though a switch was thrown on january 4th when we all got back to work. what changed? i think what changed really is that as you look out over the course of 2016, earnings expectations have consistently been lowered. all of the sudden now you look at where valuations were in the market to start the year an

maybe the ecb and boj will make progress. tough trap to get out of. i don't want to get in that trap. i want to see inflation expectations stabilize. the five year five year forward which is based on the cpi in our models that thing is never supposed to deviate from a little over 2% and it is right now, down about 100 basis points from the summer of 2014, and has been having -- >> so will you not support rate hikes as long as the inflation expectations are headed the wrong way? >> well, i'll reserve judgment about the meeting itself because we're not there yet and we got more data to come but i would like to see inflation expectations stabilize. >> thank you. more coming up from jim bullard. neel kashkari making a splash with his first interview on jobs, making big policy pronouncements, he's working on a plan to break up the big banks. we'll get more from jim bullard next. >>> i want to be honest with the american people that yes progress has been made but if we have a stressed economic environment and multiple banks are in trouble at the same time t

the boj is easing, the ecb is easing. the pboc is easing. it leaves the federal reserve standing alone. can it decouple? is hard to say how, in a global world, we do not feel something. we have to feel something. there are things the government is doing. we have seen this great consumer confidence. jon: beth is going to stay with us. stay with "bloomberg ." bad news for mario draghi this morning with consumer prices staying negative. more on that next. ♪ vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. delayt pharmaceuticals is releasing fourth quarter results. the drugmaker has been questioned about its business practices, strategy, and accounting. is returningearson after a two-month medical leave. three former executives of tokyo electric power have been indicted for the fukushima power plant disaster. one of those is charged with professional negligence, the chairman. it is a vote of confidence in alibaba's stock buyback. are ma and joseph tsai putting in their own money to buy bankshares. 20% in the fallen last year, now trading below its ipo price. bi

the ecb will meet in a couple of weeks time. the expectation is they will deepere positive rate into territory. getting rid of high denomination. you get rid of negative interest-rate policy, it has more bang because you may store its costs a little higher. i wonder how much your members are talking about that. michael: i think that is ridiculous honestly. we are either in a low inflation or perhaps a disinflation or environment. most of the central banks have shot their bullets. left to go.hing we in uncharted territory. japan existed for a long time in a similar environment. the global economy is in new territory. that is what is going on. european banks are weak and they have not gotten a strong as american banks. the world isean coming to an end. it just means people have to pay more attention to these risks. >> coming up, we will take a look at big pre-market movers coming up next. ♪ john: welcome back. futures pretty much dead flat. off big time. the big gain or there adding 20 points. let me give you an update this morn

so they -- the ecb could accidentally be dancing with a little bit of a run on some banks here. >> is the fear around the banks founded at this point? is it because they have too much exposure to energy, to emerging markets, or that they just haven't had the equivalent of ta t.a.r.p. to get the bad loans off their books? where is this coming from and why now? >> it is the idea of contagion, and you started with the middle of banks in january. and they said they had more nonperforming loans than they thought. so then they started leaning on them. today was greece's it turn in the spotlight. they're going after all those club med areas again, fearing that you might wind up with either a run on the bank or one or two banks folding. and after what we saw in 2008, people are desperately afraid of con page tagio contagion. >> art, i want to toss to bob pisani on the floor with chesapeake as it's reopening. bob. >> it just reopened. 206 was the open for that. and remember, we dropped down to as much as 151, halted for news pending, on a volatility before. this time it was news penned. they h

there going to be seeing ecb taking further policy action. you can see, the norwegian krone on the front foot. sharply moving to the upside. going to take you to the bloomberg. i'm to show you something. this is policy rates. this gives you an idea. it can take you around the world and show you what is happening in terms of perspective rate hikes. if you like -- if you click two years out. sweden one of the first banks here to raise rates, certainly well in advance of the ecb which will be cutting rates -- which will not be hiking rates for some time. here is caroline hyde. caroline: societe generale, you are pointing out there seems to be a raisin those gains. this is the worst day for the stock. since the height of the sovereign debt crisis. this is the lowest price point since 2013 for socgen. do not miss your result estimates. they posted a profit but the prophet was not nearly where analysts had been hoping. they are taking a charge putting away money. we are seeing the investment bank not living up to expectations. the chief executive m

the ecb is doing qe, but they have 10% unemployment. japan, unemployment rate is down at 3%. that's the time-honored signal of a strong economy, low unemployment. everyone has a job. so why are they doing it? >> you're saying it's a strong economy. >> everyone has a job. unemployment is very low there. >> but look at the u.s. it's been 4.9% unemployment, but it doesn't signal a strong economy. we just came off a quarter where we grew 0.7%. >> yeah, it's kind of hard to know what your measure of a good economy. we got to focus more on the jobs market. >> so you're in the yellen camp. >> not just gdp growth. yeah, it's all about jobs. the economy right now is fine. there's some worries. you know, people are talking recession, increased odds. at the moment, we're fine. >> so bottom line, because of some of those employment pictures, you think perhaps an overreaction to markets at the moment. >> i think so. we had the three big worries. china, crude oil, world growth. it terrified people. it sent some shares going down and panic sales. but i think we're going to stabilize here. >

the markets had initially been cheered by comments by mario draghi that the ecb was ready to do more to protect the eurozone, but that effect seems to have worn off as the day goes on, with the dax leading into the red. some more of the business headlines. edf, the french energy company, reported lower than expected profits come a down from 3.7 billion euros in 2014. the chief -- the chief executive says it will only close one executive plant. up to 19 may be needing to be closed. the firm has been hit by the commodity price slump and is in the process of selling off for shutting down some two thirds of its operations. anglo american was downgraded to junk by the ratings agency moody's on monday. sales of volkswagens in europe fell 4% in january. the brand would be -- overall, passenger cars in europe rose by 6%. >> back in france, a new app is trying to reduce amazon's influence on the market. here in france it has been a subject of criticism by the government, which is targeted the firm. a software developer is trying to build independent booksellers with an app that aims to redire

you look at peripheral spreads, the strength of the euro, the ecb is going to have none of that. it's going to try and reverse that quick. >> david, fantastic seeing you, as usual. david stubbs joining us live on the show from jpmorgan asset management. a >> and if we can get a quick check on oil prices. really not reacting very much. we're seeing brent and wti both in the neighborhood of 2% and 3% higher. some stabilization here when it comes to the increase in oil prices following that announcement. mean while, so much coming up here on "street signs," including the biggest names in music. well, they descended on los angeles for the 58th annual grammy awards. we'll tell you why taylor swift and kendrick lamar won't be feeling, quote, bad blood, any time soon. >>> welcome back to "street signs." orange delivered better than expected full-year earnings on the back of cost cutting and stabilizing sales. they also announced a dividend of 60 cents per share for 2015 and the current year 2016. but orange delivered little n s news, saying talks with its smaller rival would likely take

what are the implications of the federal reserve and the ecb pursuing divergent monetary policies? >> well, the ecb has been ideaing high unemployment and inflation that slipped very meaningfully below their 2% goal by putting in place negative interest rates and large-scale asset purchase programs. the u.s. has done better. we're among advanced economies, about the strongest. so we have divergent monetary policies. it's put upward pressure on the dollar over a long period of time, which is harmed manufacturing and exports. so it has resulted in negative influences on the part of our economy. >> time of the gentle lady has expired. the chair now recognizes a gentleman from missouri, mr. clay, ranking member of the subcommittee. >> thank you, mr. chairman. and thank you for being here. the federal reserve has a congressional dual mandate to seek maximum employment while limiting inflation. to limit inflation the federal reserve raises interest rates which slows the economy by discouraging people from borrowing, to buy homes or cars, and discouraging businesses from investing investi

the fed and ecb. then, a thursday for the bank of england, and and of course it is the first friday of the month, which means u.s. jobs day. we will have your preview next. ♪ jonathan: hello and welcome back to "on the move." the ftse down by 2/1 of 1%. let's whip through the market boards and have a look at equity markets across europe. the lower by 4/10 of 1%, cac 40 off, french manufacturing just crossing us, 50 for january. manufacturing in france is at 50, just straddling the line between expansion and contraction. switch at the board, and there has been contraction -- chinese. the pmi at a three-year loan. one of the reasons you see aluminum trading lower, rent crude off, and that commodity rally is faltering as we begin the new week, but a rally that does continues japanese government bonds. six basis points, an intraday low of three or four. that last year -- guy: i misspoke earlier when i said -- wait, hang on. anothers done has hit record. jonathan: this move keeps on coming. i think will

probably a great return for them, since the debt will eventually mature. >> when you talk about the ecb buying equities, that to me is a bad sign if they actually have to step in and do that. when that happened effectively over here. that pretty bad. much rather see deutsche bank getting them buy back their own securities. >> buying it. >> and you see these banks. like i said before. you need to see deutsche bank stabilize before you see other european banks stabilize before you buy u.s. banks the same way you see caps stabilize and china and there's a whole lot of things on your check list before you ent near u.s. equities. >> in terms of deutsche bank the stock didn't reach the friday low on the big spike up. >> yeah. >> gives you an example of how beaten down this name is and some of the names in the sector. talking about it last week. been a lot of activity of people playing for the downside. some of e moves they are making could stabilize the bonds. does that mean that stabilizes the stock itself? >> probably not. >> next up, hess saw nice gains after goldman sachs upgraded the buy

what are the implications of the federal reserve and the ecb pursuing divergent monetary policies? >> the ecb has been addressing high unemployment and inflation that slipped very meaningfully below their 2% goal by putting in place negative interest rates in large scale asset purchase programs. the u.s. has done better. we're among advanced economies about the strongest. so we have divergent monetary policies. it put upward pressure on the dollar over a long period of time which harmed manufacturing. and net exports. it has resulted in negative influences on a part of our economy. >> time of the gentle lady expired. the chair recognizes the gentleman from missouri. mr. clay, ranking member of the financi financial subcommittee. >> thank you, mr. chairman. thank you for being here. the federal reserve has a congressional dual mandate to seek maximum employment while limiting inflation. to limit inflation, the federal reserve raises interest rates which slows the economy by discouraging people from borrowing, to buy homes or cars, and discouraging businesses from investing. with thi

if the worst came to worse could the ecb come in and bail them out if they needed to? sure. but if it goes from 17 to 18 to $1 it's still going to feel real bad. >> let's talk about the real and the question we ask are some. most hated stocks on the street actually responsible for this three-day gain? paul hickey joins us. what did you find? >> if you base up the s&p, you go increment ily on short performance it gets better to the most heavily shorted so they are up twice what the least short are so you can certainly say it's a short covering rally. the only issue is calling it a short covering real. every bounce we saw during the last bear market was a short covering rally and the meaningful rally in 2011 and march 2009 was a short covering rally. rallies begin with short conversation, so it's hard to focus on that, but in the short term here, we think the onus is on the bulls here to -- to prove themselves here. we seem like the opening graphic we showed here, there's been several rallies since august, and they have all been met with lower lows, so until we make that strin

we also have the head of the ecb, mario draghi, and stanley fischer speaking later today. and then iowa holds the u.s. nominating caucuses in the republican and democratic presidential contests. the bank of england will unveil the quarterly inflation report and hold a press conference on thursday. on friday, the all-important jobs data from the united dates. up next, we are live in zÜrich. manus is there. we will speak to the julius bar ceo as the bank sees profits eroded. anna: welcome back. this is "countdown." let's get the bloomberg business flash. here is caroline. caroline: reiner has announced an 800 million euro share buyback. it will start on february 5 and will be executed over nine months. the budget airline said profit after tax increased to 103 million euros. that was below analyst estimates . sony shares have risen the most in a year after the company reported better-than-expected profits. it has given a huge helping hand andhe james bond film record-breaking sales of adele's album. playstation 4 sales help to offset the plunge in orders from smartphone cust

let us look at ecb policy. i have a rather strange concern that the germans, who are suffering on a number of fronts, we talked about deutsche bank read but no one talks about the refugee crisis. the kind of sense that there is been no solidarity in dealing with this major, axis central issue. when it comes to monetary policy, the germans do not need negative interest rates. the german economy is reasonably strong. germans might say, sorry, enough. anna: and we have had the french central talking about how the ecb is ready to act this morning. stephen isaacs, joining us from outline capital. we have banking news coming in. manasquan let us cross over to caroline at the bloomberg terminal. underlying results significantly below $3.1 billion. caroline: significantly below for 2015, as well. this is the perfect storm, a company that is not only exposed to the oil market, but exposed to trade, as well. you know it as a shipping lighter. but big oil is a company there. there are seeing underlying results independent

yellen: the ecb has been addressing high unemployment and inflation. it slipped meaningfully below their 2% goal by putting in place negative interest rates assetrge-scale app purchase programs. we are among advanced economies about the strongest. we have divergent monetary policies. it put upward pressure on the dollar over a long time which has harmed manufacturing and mid exports. negativesulted in influences on the part of our economy. >> the chair now recognizes the gentleman from missouri, mr. clay. mr. clay: thank you for being here. the federal reserve has a congressional dual mandate to seek maximum employment while limiting inflation. to limit inflation, the federal reserve raises interest rates, which slows the economy by discouraging people from borrowing, to buy homes or cars and discouraging businesses from investing. with this reduced demand, businesses will hire fewer workers and as a result workers will have less bargaining power, meaning it will be less likely to get pay increasing. the decision to raise interest rates is based on the

we will see action in coming weeks from the ecb and the boj to lower further into negative territory, and from the fed we'll see in mid-march, you know, dots that are more dovish than the dots they had in december. that's a safe bet. >> haven't we learned that markets react negatively to negative interest rates, if ecb and boj go deeper, isn't that a risk? >> it's a risk, they're pushing up against territory. it's questionable how much further they can go here. it's had some -- perhaps some negative, psychological implications. that seems to be what they're aiming for now, rightly or wrongly. for the fed, it's a message of more gradual pace than what they were thinking back in december. >> michael, what do you think of the fact that they're calling this the jamie dimon bottom. if you work at jpmorgan, are you allowed to call it that? i can't say that, don't say that. how do people react. >> i just focus on the economic data. >> very wise move. jeff what do you think will win here moving forward? what sectors will make the greatest gains? >> i think technology. technology trades at a p

extended its fall against the greenback after european central bank president mario draghi said the ecb is, quote unquote, ready to do its part, hinting it may decide on further easing measures at its march meeting. let's take a look at other markets currently open across the asia-pacific. a bit of a mixed picture. australian shares are down by .6%. the kospi is up by .6%. >>> preliminary figures for the last quarter of 2015 showed japan's gdp contracted by 1.4% in annual terms. one of the main factors was a drop in domestic consumption. a closer look reveals a disturbing trend, disposable income is declining and young working households are hurting the most. nhk world's yuko fukushima reports. >> reporter: retailers across japan are reporting a slowdown in business. the manager of this hardware store says sales are at the worst level in ten years. >> translator: sales are about 10% lower than a year ago. spending by young people is plummeting. we are counting on elderly customers, or those in their 40s or older who can afford to spend. >> reporter: among those cutting spending are the

europe largely unchanged after draghi says the ecb won't hesitate to act in a crisis. oil is a big story, russia and saudis agree to this production freeze. our road map begins with global volatility continuing. jim mcgoggin. >> and apollo and adt are in a deal. >> and the death of supreme court justice ascalia has creatd a firestorm. >>> first up, stock futures jumping sharply. saudi arabia, russia, qatar and venezuela agreeing to freeze output at january levels provide that other major exporters follow suit. crude prices rose off their highs of the morning. some analysts expected an agreement to cut production. that's not exactly what we're talking about now iran on the tape is saying, maybe, we still want our piece. >> that's going to be the question, iran and iraq as well who is also ramping up production to get money, it's an expensive fight it has on its hands with isis. that's the big caveat that oil producers will agree. before this announcement, brent crude was up as much as 5%. it's still higher. the bulls would say, at least we're getting diplomacy. this is

what are the implications of the federal reserve and the ecb pursuing diverge enter monetary policies? >> the ecb has been addressing high unemployment and inflation that slipped very meaningfully below their 2% goal by putting in place negative interest rates in large scale asset purchase programs. the u.s. has done better. we're among advanced economies about the strongest. so we have divergent monetary policies. it put pressure on the dollar over a long period of time which harmed manufacturing. it has resulted in negative influences on a part of our economy. >> time of the gentle lady expired. the chair recognizes the gentleman from missouri. >> thank you, mr. chairman. thank you for being here. the federal reserve has a congressional dual mandate to seek maximum employment while limiting inflation. to limit inflation, the federal reserve raises interest rates which slows the economy by discouraging people from borrowing, to buy homes or cars, and discouraging businesses from investing. with this reduced demand, businesses will hire fewer workers and as a result workers will have

ecb -- says the next guest rally might have more legs. we begin with our market minutes. we are looking at the best week , so fars&p, the dow, a this year. the best day for the nasdaq since july. joe: now positive since november. tuesday wednesday, extraordinary rallies, much quieter in the second half of the week.

and he realized the ecb was going the other way. everybody told him the dollar was going to parity, and he did not want the pound to stay on the strong side. anna: fx targeting, he would be in good company. erik nielsen joining us from unicredit. manus: come back early again. fourth-quarter earnings, at the top of the hour, analysts expecting a solid quarter. if you are a mercedes-benz driver. i know you don't drive it all. anna: i don't have a car. i don't have a car. hans nichols is in berlin. don't talk about my driving. tell us what to expect from daimlerchrysler. daimler truck division is what we will be looking at. here is what we are looking for, namely. the profit margin, will it come before 10%? analysts expected to do so. we saw the fourth quarter, really a question of the two countervailing forces. one, the slowdown in emerging markets. although mercedes held up in china when you look on sales. and what sort of bunk they get from the week here, what will that factor into? the main number we are looking at is the profit ma

out of outcome ecb temperatures near 60's in the sandhills. a shower tonight, mostly because we may see a sprinkle in the overnight hours. take a live look here in downtown raleigh. a rare sprinkle or two. the east wind is at six miles for our. 51% humidity with a southeast wind. we go from there. 60 degrees with a wind at eight miles per hour. a lot of sunshine at the beast -- at the beach. we go from there to the mountains. yesterday we battled snow in the mountains. the current numbers across the region show 55 degrees in smithfield. 56 degrees in stamford. look at the 24 hour temperature change. 14 degrees colder in smithfield. nine degrees colder in wilson. 13 degrees colder in chapel hill. here is the big midwest storm putting down a lot of snow in it is this frontal boundary that is trailing off as it advances to the east. today, we have a satellite showing clouds ahead of that. we will see breaks in the cluster the afternoon hours. 7:00 tonight, a nice sunset and we are clear as far as the rainfall goes. you may see a stray sprinkle in

because you've got the fed, you've got to the ecb, the boj. we're not all going in the same direction. markets have been pretty unsteady since the beginning of the year and toward the end of last year. i think for that reason and i think until the markets start to feel like there's either a direction where everybody's headed in the same direction or the fact that we're having divergent monetary policy is not going to affect the market much, you're going to continue to see volatility. >> you did manage to find stocks for our viewers to take a look at. the first, fed ex, a price target of 165, tell me about that. >> i think fed ex is a stock like a lot of the transportation stocks have been hit hard. if you look at cent you've seen a lot of stocks beyond a bear market and down more than 20%. think fed ex has taken a bunch of selling pressure because of the fact that people are worried about the global economy, because of the fact that people are worried about what's going on in the u.s. and outside the u.s. and the transports tend to take a dim

banks can also deposit money above and beyond what's required at the central bank, like the fed or ecb. those funds are known as excess reserves. so central banks are trying to encourage banks to put their deposits to use by charging them funds to keep them there rather than paying interest on them. so that's what a negative interest rate is. it's new and spreading all across the world right now, you've got a host of different countries, denmark, sweden, switzerland, the european central bank and bank of japan. those are the countries where central banks have similar negative interest rate policy u.s., as for whether or not it really works, not many experts feel as though it's late enough to tell what's going to happen here. the world of negative rates has been around for only a few years. it's not in the cards for us here in the u.s. just yet but just about everyone on wall street is watching closely to see if it could become a possibility down the road. eurozone countries, japan, there are a host of countries out there with these negative interest rate policies, nerp. you heard all a

next week we'll hear from ecb head mario draghi who speaks in brussels monday. we'll get japan's fourth quarter gdp and hear from big retailers including walmart later in the week. >>> the market plunged to start the year, has some investors wondering whether stocks are signaling recession. others say the economy is saying, no way. today people in the economy camp got a lift. we got data showing the consumer was alive and well last month as retail sales in january were stronger than expected. if stocks are warning recession, steve leishman tells us why the economy isn't playing ball. >> if you could cover one eye and block out the dismal stock market numbers, if you could look only at the economic data, you'd have no idea we're in the middle of some apocalyptic panic. the u.s. economic data has not been great but it's been good. good enough to contradict the view from the stock market that a recession is imminent. retail sales for january were a bit better than expected. helping confirm the early read that first quarter growth would show a modest bounceback from

you talk a little better china news and ecb and perhaps news on oil. a lot of talk but all very high level talk. the highs for the day. >> thank you for now. turning to oil after falling today on those oil producing countries, russia and saudi arabia, agreeing to freeze output rather than cutting production. brenda shaffer, global energy center and professor at georgetown university. welcome back. >> thank you. >> do you think their heart was really in it with saudi arabia and other two countries announced this agreement to freeze production? it was contingent on other oil producers doing the same. could you imagine all of them wanting to do that? >> i think it's actually just a genius move on russian and saudis part, a tactical move. all you have to do is chatter and have a meeting and talk. and i think they learned that the three previous times when they had a meeting discussed it, they got lift to the oil price. no matter what by talking about it, they have gained a lot financially. it creates a momentum andthy don't even really need -- i think this

gary: could be ecb go to 100 on the yen? chris: i do not see why not. tom: this is critical. if we have chris verrone moving out to ¥100 and gary shilling surprise, this goes back to what we talked about in the previous hour, getting over to elements of a pause in core dollar strength. you need china. china in terms of growth levels and how they are trying to mask the economy is different to the rest of the world. we are not getting any signs they are ready to participate. gary, how do you view japan? do we need to look at japan is something purely japan because the yen is rising even when they are trying to throw the kitchen sink at the economy? or if japan and abenomics fail, does it have a wider implication on the world economy? only 150 years out of feudalism, and they have a lot of feudalistic characteristics. women not in the workforce. lifetime employment. yourselfism, you owe to your feudal lord. i have a lot of these characteristics, and they are not able to get them, despite abe's best intentions. they cannot change the culture to a great degree. i do not think the

we have ecb minutes due out at 12:30. let's bring in andrew sheets. we have ray dally l, head of the biggest hedge fund in the world saying central banks cannot do enough. our central banks lost now? clear theyhink it is have more limited policy options and i think the market is realizing they cannot stop a global recession if it is happening. caroline: is it happening? do not think so, but that would not be a new phenomenon. withve had many recessions the federal reserve and the ecb and we were not able to prevent that. they cannot change the overall dynamics of the business cycle. right now, i think the market is ringing its hands with this fear that the data that central banks cannot stop that and down we go, but by the same token it works in the other direction. i think that means if the data gets a little bit better, and we saw this in the market reaction yesterday, then all of a sudden this does not seem like such a hopeless case. that is important and that would follow the pattern of what we saw 2014-2015. central banks stepped back and the dat

the ecb and the fed and the bank of england was going to follow in the fed's footsteps. but what has happened since we last spoke in december, there has been a huge seachange. back-checking is -- backtracking, to put it mildly. that this kind of new experiment is not really something they have -- tom: i would point out, ellen zentner at morgan stanley talked about how the economy is giving the fed tightening it does not want right now. francine: i am still unclear about what exactly happened since december. lakshman, you are still talking about the shift. we see the u.s. presidential and onn, brexit, fundamentals are we seeing something that we did not see in december? or are we seeing pure market nervousness? lakshman: one is a recognition on fundamentals, just the data -- gdp is down at a three-quarter year low. sales and income are at roughly 1.5-year lows in year on year growth rates. so recognition that fundamentals are decelerating, not accelerating, is one thing. the second is that the fed will not be able to do a true rate hike cycle. the japanese, where you had

and goal more negative, and japan maybe on the fence. >> ecb still sees this as a viable plan. i think they will cut rates by about another 10 basis points. they may answer in figure qe program. iny are about $60 billion euro purchases per month. right nowkey point, they have been buying bonds along the gdp basis. they may do it on a more debt basis, meaning that whoever has the most bonds gets the most benefits out of this. italy would be one of the big benefactors of that as well. italian bonds, if that were to occur, it may be a 20% chance that mario draghi announces that, but he wants to know something big in march. david: thank you. stick with us. there's much more ahead on bloomberg go. later in the hour, stephanie ruhle will be speaking to paul jacobs in toronto. as we had to break, let's get a check on one stock that is surging in premarket trading, square. visa reported a 10% stake in square. ♪ >> here's your latest bloomberg business flash. retail sales rose 2/10 of a percent in january. cars and online spending led the way. report claims that airbnb covered up for

two weeks the tiv rate will be coming in ecb. when we take this in a ruling on the markets, we're starting to see more and more companies become takeover targets. amedisys is considered a bellwether in terms of consumer product. the biggest retailer out there in terms of department stores. cannot s s saying i spend because i could be a takeover target for activists. i think they are important to the people are doing business. u.s. the question before, and people are spending money. i understand restoration hardware had a big blitz the other day. but when you look at home depot, you look at lowe's, people are spending on their homes. you talk about theater, you talk about travel, business is good. an important voice, they reduced capacity and the price of oil is drastically lower. the matter is we are over stored in the united states. it is incredible. take whatever number you want. whether it is 25 square foot or f -- per capita, it is over space. is no reason for them to exist unless their distribution centers for the online bus