the kind of mario draghi do we get tomorrow? speech, it is a summary of the ecb passes position and how they think about monetary policies. the fed with bank of england thinks as well. the mystery of inflation below , it is in the -- in the u.s. and other countries. , it may well be the reason why inflation is missing targets and why it is do with excess supply rather than we demand. it will be difficult to reach inflation. a challenge for the major central banks. speculation that mario draghi be program, this qe is all ahead of the speech friday at the symposium. a sequencer draghi and his collies at the ecb will continue to be cautious. inflation dynamics aren't consistent in terms of economic recovery. it might be difficult to expect the ecb to announce moving a from its current policy position. >> you can raise rates for the of -- cause are we still talking about something to virgins? class of thought bill dudley's, very important. to move away from the data dependent. it is something mr. delly refer unwinding of the balance

and why is mario draghi being quiet about the resilient euro? we look into how it currencies strength may impact the future of qe, especially as meetings get started . -- next month. let's have a look at where european equities are trading just under 30 minutes to the close. i can tell you the stoxx 600 is rebounding from a five-month low and also rebounding after it had its worst week since november last weekend. we are seeing broad-based gains, the ftse 100 up the most in over a week. the dax up the most in almost four weeks. some people coming out to say perhaps a correction is imminent. this is the europe index and what we can see here is that those are drops of 10% or more from peaks. that hasn't happened in about 13 months for the europe index, they in the question whether we are due a pullback. that 13th month run without a pullback of 10% or more is the longest since this bull market began in 2009. that is and and then we will talk about this hour. and then looking at the stoxx 600 revenue per basic share against the euro. we were just t

. >> european stocks trading basically in a tight range with the ecb president mario draghi due to address the fed's symposium at jackson hole in a couple of hours from now his u.s. counterpart janet yellen made no reference to monetary policy. as a result the euro spiked to a three year high against the dollar around 10:00 a.m. eastern to 118 against the greenback in corporate news. amazon due to close its acquisition of whole foods on monday and start slashing prices of several grocery products. in europe take a look at dutch supermarket operator a patient of food lion and stop and shop tesco under pressure number one retailer in the uk. some economic news i want to talk about in france consumer confidence falling for a second consecutive month a tick lower in august to a reading of 103 confidence had jumped to 108 in june following victory of president macron since then it's dropped. households are losing confidence in their financial situation keep in mind macron's popularity has suffered a nose dive down 20 points from may according to a harris poll. french stock market pulling back f

another janet yellen nor mario draghi will announce anything new. the markets might be priced in about the euro. that's where we will see the real price action. manus: cracking piece on the bloomberg this weekend. this is the language he used. volatility. we are a ways away. in talking about the euro? i doubt that very much. financial stability could be a bigger conversation that yellen puts to the marketplace. perhaps we are underpricing that. >> that is a fair point to make. the most recent bed mentioned they were pushing back against deregulation in the financial industry, which weighed on bank industries. now she says they will fight the administration's attempt to roll back the dodd-frank, etc.. most likely scenario is that she will reiterate what has been said before in terms of the fed supporting financial regulation. nothing to definitive either way. matt: what do you expect from trump's speech tonight? and that the market moving or are traitors trying to take politics out of their daily work? >> i don't know how anyone can know what to work

>> definitely mario draghi is in a tough spot. he is the right man in the right place. he has an extraordinary challenge. governments have not given him enough to support. the euro has changed direction in one way or another. we were talking about the opposite questions. let the exchange markets do what they need to be doing. mistake.t is a one needs to do the economic policies as steady as you go. >> i just want to ask you about china. you talk about the importance of the chinese economy to the rest of the global landscape. we are seeing the economy doing much better. what are we looking out for. and ease of business conditions there. do they need to? todayna is a major player in the world economic system. china is an integral part of it. the volume of trade between china and the u.s. and europe taken together is only half of the volume of trade between china and the rest of asia. the center of gravity has moved to asia. china is at the center of it. china has become the most important trading partner of most countries in the world. in this regard one should not will l

investors should more attention to draghi then yellen next week. >> i will more attention to mario draghi. i don't think the fed is going to want to shake the process, so i do not expect janet yellen as chair of the fed to be saying anything. jonathan: with draghi taking center stage, here to discuss is eys and michael mckee. what can we expect because there were doubts last week as to whether this would be the market moving speech ahead of potential tapering in a couple of might -- months? has becomeon hole this foreign that global wall street expects central bankers to make announcements because ben bernanke did it twice it most of the time the speeches we get are rather bland and academic and i would suspect those concerns are correct because you go back to the last ecb meeting and draghi set at the time the governing council agreed to wait until the autumn to discuss the mechanics of qe and the timing of qe. to this is not autumn yet and he is also a long way from home and remarks like that are probably better given if you are going to get specific hints or clues at an ecb meeting or

many are keeping a close eye on ecb president mario draghi's speech where he could offer clues as to when the bank will taper. this after he delivered more dovish comments to a gathers of economic noubl lawyer rble laurn lindau ben, do you expect anything substantial to come out of jackson hole we saw this reuters report a couple weeks ago saying mario draghi will not be speaking about monetary policy. do we have to wait until september? >> i think he's in a bind at the moment the culture of the ecb is looking to tight rates they have always had a hawkish angle to their outlook certainly the comments eventually have been around currency strength. if anything, he will talk today about moderating that. i wouldn't expect anything other than a dovish tone from mario draghi today >> do you think tapering will be a huge risk factor for the european markets the favorite trade is long european equities, maybe underweight u.s., because those equities have had a good run do you think tapering could be a substantial headwind here to that positioning. >> i don't think so. i think invests. >> rep

jackson hole, we did not get any pronouncements on monetary policy from janet yellen or mario draghi. here is what the bloomberg dollar index is doing, jumping to its lowest since january 2015 on friday. it is thing there, converting, we saw the euro hit a fresh time, going above 119 as mario draghi did not push back on the currency strength. a close eye on crude oil. gasoline futures surging because of hurricane harvey. oil is still in a bit of a gridlock. w ti is edging slower in today's session, staying below $48 per barrel. what we saw on the data is short-sellers listing their bearish bets. wu can see what a tight race ti had been in. that range from february. anna: in addition -- a new edition of daybreak is available. let's take is look at some of the stores. the cover story is bracing for impact, oil traders face a wild -- iss the markets digest a causing unprecedented flooding. the storm halted a fifth of crude production in the gulf of mexico. as we head to the top of the program, how long there rankings falling. matt: it looks awful and looks set to do can did -- set to con

mario draghi speaking at this very moment. new headlines ahead and adam shapiro tells us what the fed chair has to say in wyoming and how it could impact the markets and your portfolio. the "countdown" is coming right back. don't let dust and allergens get between you and life's beautiful moments. switch to flonase allergy relief. flonase outperforms the #1 non-drowsy allergy pill. when we breathe in allergens, our bodies react by overproducing 6 key inflammatory substances that cause our symptoms. flonase helps block 6. most allergy pills only block one and 6 is greater than 1. with more complete relief you can enjoy every beautiful moment to the fullest. flonase. 6 is greater than 1 changes everything. and your portfolio. got you outnumbered. the dinosaurs' extinction... don't listen to them. not appropriate. now i'm mashing these potatoes with my stick of butter... why don't you sit over here. find your awesome with the xfinity stream app. included with xfinity tv. more to stream to every screen. . ashley: federal reserve c

mine at g we have mario draghi and this is important. cleverly sold. she is a salesman, a saleswoman i should say. can you outsell her? vonnie: i think given the title for chart, we should make our vocalizing that in a jerry maguire fashion. she should be shouting show me the -- is a tie, we will get her to do it. vonnie: she can get ready. my chart is on the french growth retail who was thinking -- we were talking about earlier. it is not at the crossroads and hit the red light and this chart is normalized and look how much that drop is affecting. also dragging down the halo groceryf other french stores and the stoxx 600 retail index in general. we would have to see how it performs like we are seeing in the u.s. or something a very peculiar to the french grocery chain a you can see that at 3834. mark: so topical. she knows how to get me. the fear -- all she has to do is say show me the profit. there is no time -- it is a tie. it is a tie. much a damage has harvey done it to houston's business community. ♪ i am vonnie quinn the welcome to bloomberg m

it is interesting, given the speech on friday by mario draghi. will try toif he job on the currency low which has not worked well in the past when central bankers have tried to job own -- how is it looking? vonnie: if anyone has the gift of the gab in the currency world , it is mario draghi of who speaks on friday. janet yellen space at 10:00 a.m. eastern. the u.s. dollar is stronger over the last 24 hours, and a lot of slow if not maybe huge liquidity. one big figure of movement for the yen between today and yesterday, back up at one of 9.35. 5. 109.3 this is all relative, the dollar is a week levels. nymex crude oil of a half a percent and up 47.59. mark. wide gold futures will give 1300 a run but may not stay there. they tried to get about 1300 several times. european stocks rebounding from the lows -- lowest level in more than a week. told, the yen, bonds retreating, even as bridgewater says they are reducing rates, despite the warnings of the global credit violations are stretched. our next guest says there is a -- bullis position. vacationn

mario draghi will be watched closely as well. no one is expecting any surprises. he could be a repeat of the temper tantrum two months ago when there was a jump in the euro after trying to walk back remarks. reporter: amazon is getting even bigger. the company wants t complete the acquisition of whole foods market's. and amazon wants to cut prices. tell us more. reporter: yes, after the approval of shareholders and the federal trade commission, amazon wants to close the deal on monday. the story between amazon and whole foods started with a big bang. after acquiring the organic super market chain, amazon was to -- wants to cut the prices. they want healthy food to be available for everyone without compromising the commitment to high quality. that is what jeff bezos wants. whole foods market was often marked as a high price. they need a new name. reporter: thank you. french president emmanuel macron says the european union could break off if it does not change rules that allow cheap labor abroad. he made this statement with visits to the capital of romania. france

draghi, theo mario red note tonight's -- denotes that. all the way back to market when there is such a frenzy. did we overextend ourselves in bonds, and in the euro trajectory? not overextend ourselves because the data in europe has been very good, ecb will be producing the pace of its purchases later this year. the reaction does make sense. where we have been surprised is that the market has also been out a little bit. the reaction function to the same trends. since the start of qe whenever the euro-dollar got up to about 1.15. there was a aggressive reaction. is there an explicit comment in a speech or a story from ecb sources? they try to -- that did not happen this time around. anything you saw at the july press conference, draghi was comfortable. the: then we got last week account of the last meeting and that it change the market thinking on how the ecb is concerned. deutsche bank did interesting work when they talk about the language, this sort of morning. they can use to express concern about a constancy -- currency to the dovish s

ecb president mario draghi stepping up to the podium a little bit later today, according to an ecb spokesman, draghi intends to stick to the theme of the event, fostering a dynamic global economy. for more on all of this, i want to bring in a chief u.s. economist. draghi, yellen, and kuroda went for a walk together and they looked happier than i've seen them in months, if not tenures. have they decided today was the best thing to do to keep markets calm? >> with the global economy on the right track and strengthening, and the fed has markets right in the packet aware they need to be expecting balance sheets, drawdown soon, negligibleg a non- chance for a third rate hike this year, there was really no new message at all for many of these -- for any of these leading bankers to send. that relaxed feel you probably saw among them as they were strolling along was that this was actually a standard jackson hole conference straight is a global conference where a lot of the leaders and central bankers come together from around the world, and a lot of the economists talk to each other. it's not ever i

what are the chances that mario draghi or janet yellen could rattle market? another day, another painful earnings report for u.k. company. shares are plunging about 20%. how tepid is consumer spending? corporate news, lady gaga helping put the sparkle back into pennies. we will find out why the pop star is pushing the company back to the edge of glory.

there is no greater indication from mario draghi that he is worried. is he worried about the euro, mr. hansen certainly isn't. overnight, london up .2%. for me, more interested in paul ryan's comments that the gop administration is not interested in a shutdown. that is what i think markets are focused on. let's talk about that gathering of central bankers at jackson hole. will have a chance to talk down the euro if that is his choice after months of gains against the dollar. even if he does, what markets taken seriously? while some concern was raised about the strong euro in the ecb's recent policy meeting, mr. grassley is expected to move further ports unwinding in the coming months. neil dwane is a global strategist at allianz. here we are, no matter what, mario draghi says should he choose to use the warning like about whether currency is important, has a magnificat impact on our economy. qe isrket has in its head coming to an end. it is merely, we only go to war or haggle about the dots. it is coming, so why would i want to short the euro? neil: ha

next 12 months, that is what we're focused on rather than mario draghi. david: 20 make of the comments that mario draghi made talking about the importance of forward guidance? are you sympathetic? mike: we're sympathetic with the view that when you have policy tools that you don't know exactly how they work that you when youead carefully change your policy stance. i think that is right. forward guidance there has worked well. there are other examples where it hasn't worked well. one, when you are trying to precommitted to a fairly major change in policy, get themselves out of the bond buying business, forward guidance is a good idea. david: we were talking about what we have learned about tapering in monetary policy. what about communication? the way that the central bank has communicated? are they better at conveying what they hope and intend to do going forward? mike: i think they are. there are various ways to look at that. if you look at where markets have gone since the fed started to raise interest rates, markets have performed well. that should be

mario draghi talks about it. finally additional guests coming up from here that will be a key issue on closing bell happy birthday to the national parks day 1916 signed the order creating the national park system and that's one of the places where we are right now. >> it could be another beautiful day there. >> thank you. >> we await the walk first of all. >> white smoke >> but that's the signal for more on the market and federal reserve let's bring in jason. good morning to you. >> thanks for having us. >> are we expecting policy change or positioning from janet yellen in the speech that could move the markets >> i wouldn't expect anything but it's important to listen to the undertone. what we're trying to diseacern not when they're tighteningor when the next action is going to be it's more about the broad pace of implementation and given that this is a little bit of a global form for central bankers there can also be intertwining as how does the fed policy pack interact with and effect japan and europe's policy

do you expect in a bombshells this week later on we hear from janet yellen, ecb president mario draghi at the annual jackson hole symposium. >> it's possible that some it's possible they've censored a policy symbol. we anticipate a little more volatility with to negotiations and that feeling talks you do not think they will come out and give any advice to pose the indication. she's trying to balance a lot of confidence in the global financial market while achieving moderate level inflation and growth. i think she was going to try to use the opportunity to get some general statements about the economy, the really not rock the boat. >> summer dovish. stephen mnuchin will speak later today on tax reform. these simply the trip agenda is back on track? >> if you specifically looking of the market is pricing certain things, it's not getting a lot of credit to for the economic agenda. review the tax reform is an outside possibility. not expecting it to happen, but if it does it to be great for stocks, specifically things in a high tax bracket segment of consumer discretionary. the market don'

scarlet: mario draghi -- mark: mario draghi my need to -- -- we spoke to someone about the impact of the issue. >> [indiscernible] this new application of the euro, we have and we need to economy.ronger and that is the form we want to introduce, we can have the presence to make the economy stronger to face difficulties like the new euro or difficulties on the -- markets. we need this so we can face such problems. scarlet: we are -- the: we are joined by effects and rate strategist from blair linn. is it time for -- berlin. is it time for dimension for draghi? >> i think it depends on who you ask. we have heard from business groups and friends saying yes, the euros getting to levels now that is becoming problematic. we have other business groups in germany that are saying it is not such a big deal at these levels. with the ecb, they set this up and i'm not sure the level at health -- itself is a big concern for them, it is the pace to move higher that we've seen in recent months. they will probably take the opportunity to push back a little bit on it, same as they did last time around

draghi. somewhat of a holding pattern, but marginally higher for asian markets. checking out europe. yesterday we saw stocks fall across the continent today higher nearly across the board. german stocks are higher by 0.6% leading the charge >>> we have some of the miners doing well, bhp billy ton and some retailers grocery store sales. aldi and lidl up -- >> gaining share >> so they had about 20% almost sales growth year-on-year, a marker for the u.s. names. they're entering the market here, the discount retailers they have about 12% market share, well above the u.s. that's a sign of things to come maybe in the u.s the big four growing for a fifth quarter in a row the market here in the u.s. is five or six years behind the uk model is quite a good one to look at for people studying at what might happen over here >>> broader markets, oil prices, which failed to catch a bit in the way other commodities have significantly recently, wti crude 47.5 up a percent it did slip a bit yesterday. broader

get a previewwill of a big event tomorrow at jackson hole with janet yellen and ecb president mario draghi scheduled to speak. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ julia: this is "bloomberg markets: the trump economy." i'm julia chatterley. the main event for the fed jackson hole event comes tomorrow with the janet yellen and ecb president mario draghi scheduled to speak. joining us now from jackson hole is mike mckee, our international economics and policy correspondent. what a beautiful backdrop. talk about who is the more important banker here in terms of markets, janet yellen, and what she could hint about balance sheet retraction and a possible rate hike, or is it mario draghi and his prospects for qe? he had an impact on the markets last month when he talked about the possible ending of qe. if i knew what they were going to say, i could give you an answer. development ofe policy. they will have an impact on markets, but both have a chance to avoid that. janet yellen talking about financial stability, could say stocks are overvalued, the fed is concerned about that, or she could say

draghi stay right there. >> yes ecb president mario draghi speaking and steve liesman has headlines from that. >> reporter: mario giving comments and says it looks like the recovery is at an early stage in europe and japan, a little further along in the united states and warns that the cyclical rates, the higher rates could converge down on lower rates if action is not taken to boost productivity, and to boost productivity he says we have to boost trade and openness in the economy so he's leaning against the protectionist bent that's going on out in the economy these days and says trade is key to raising that productivity but recognizes that the public is concerned about how free trade, whether or not it is fair, and he also has this question of whether or not this is coming to it the end we notice there's a serious risk to the economy and he's doubling down on something that we're not doubling down on in the united states which is multi-lateral institutions but having -- the more multi-lat wall, and while the united states and other ken truss are going their separate ways, you know

when you look at high yield bonds, you always look at them relative to risk and mario draghi decides the risk and the spread is supposed to he reflect corporate risk if you have a buyer in the market creating tightening of corporate risk, he companies can allow themselves to come to the market and finance cheaply despite the fact that they are extremely risky. investors have to be fully invested just go in and buy everything and that creates what i call bifurcation in the market. so either comprehended is good enough to buy because it's not going to default and people hoold it in their portfolio and the spread is tight, or the credit is a disaster and it will be trading very low prices i mean, the pure example is last week air berlin, they moved from being priced at at 100 all the way down to five krepcents on oh dollar and it took a week. people were hoping that the owner come in and support it that is prove that mario draghi is creating a disaster in the market, an absolute disaster and they should move away and they should let the market normalize and price credit correctly. >> ho

mario draghi is likely to stay cautious. we don't expect the ecb to make significant policy announcements. janet yellen has highlighted she is cautious on inflation. we think she will mention the balance sheet. at some point, she needs to imbalances in markets. there is still that pressure to continue with the rate rises and start addressing some of those imbalances, some quite significant and credit markets. haidi: what could the implications be for asia? is it more of the same, things data dependent? so far the data has been goldilocks, hasn't it? >> it has. if she continues with the plots, thathe dot will put pressure on leveraged investors, so that will inch closer to a flatter yield curve. asian credit in particular we think is quite vulnerable to a flatter yield curve and further rate ricers from the u.s. fed. what do you see in terms of fat high yield, junk area? , we saw the week biggest outflows from high-yield in half a year. is this the beginning of the unwind we saw set up with for by everything rally following t

the anticipation for tomorrow towards janet yellen or mario draghi? economist, i will take both sides of the argument. mario draghi's may be more interesting in that he bluntly, more directly -- he speaks more bluntly and more directly, something people are interested in. he could talk about the ecb withdrawing stimulus and make the argument, even if he does not provide details for tapering , it is time to get out of the stimulus business and start ratcheting it back. janet yellen academically and talk about financial stability and how the markets are overpriced, which would get everyone's attention. that is not her style. if you are asking me which one has the potential to make the most news, i would say janet yellen because, if she were to talk about an overvalued market that worried the fed, that would have a big impact on wall street. jonathan: the theme of this is fostering a dynamic global economy. whatever that means. there has been a research paper behind the scenes, something people looked over the following day, anything that is becoming the

janet yellen or mario draghi? with mohamed el-erian has to say on bloomberg next. >> this is bloomberg markets. when the world central bankers gathering the shadow of -- next week there will be a number of learning questions. the winding down of the fed balance sheet and the unwind of qe in europe. mohamed el-erian, chief economic eggs -- chief economic advisor ways in. >> from a market perspective i will be paying more attention to mario draghi. simply because the fed is well embarked against our value concept of beautiful normalization. i don't think the fed is going to want to shake that process. expect janet yellen to be saying anything. she will focus on financial stability. very different situation for mario draghi. they are going to explain how they're going to do that. the economy is more fragile than the u.s.. i think they're going to have much more information content. >> take those comments and put them together with the counselor we got this week. how much did they take away from what draghi might be s

we will hear from mario draghi today. what we expect from mario draghi? she has started speaking while we have been on air. he is largely talking about monetary policy committee regulation. not talking too much about tapering. the initial reaction was quite muted. at the same time we have strong numbers from germany today showing how strongly the german economy is growing. that is quite interesting in terms of what he and janet yellen will talk about. i think she will avoid talking about tapering. her speech will focus on financial stability. the speeches are analysed to the nth degree. on the on this programme can we talk about someone making a speech to avoid something. we will talk more in awhile. for now, thanks. still to come, the business of fitness — we hear from the man who's bucking an economic slowdown and running one of the world's most successful gym chains in south america. you're with business live from bbc news. identity theft has hit new record levels, according to the fraud prevention organisation cifas. it says nearly 90,000 cases were

mario draghi spoke in germany. expectations on future shorter rates. interventionrected through markets through large-scale asset purchases. to influence the yield curve beyond the short-term. >> he gave no clue as to when he might end stimulus. >> he gave no clue as to when he might-- now is the time to back out -- bow out. he will continue to -- global news to my four hours a day powered by more than 700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. stealcoming up, trying to the smartphone thunder. the electronics company coming out with a new galaxy. ahead of the apple big reveal in time for the 10th anniversary of the iphone here plus, the stock thans the hour today, lows a fitting from the u.s. housing boom. earnings next.ct this is bloomberg. ♪ shareholders to a the union. neither doing much. meanwhile, home depot when it comes to the multiyear rebound and remodeling. its- the company lowered earnings. >> a few reasons why shares were down. mess and likea you mentioned, they lowered the prophet foyer to about $4.2. can

janet yellen and mario draghi will be there. expect them to suggest what their saddlebags could be doing. one of the things that will be on janet yellen's be doing. one of the things that will be onjanet yellen's mind is the weak dollar? that is right, and how it feeds into inflation expectations. we have seen some softening in inflation. the rate has been risen three times in recent months. that hasn't been felt on the us dollar. we talked about nafta at the start of the programme. and clearly, president trump's threats to scrap it entirely. it will be interesting, given what we have also heard this morning, that the chinese great wall motor company are asking for a meeting with fiat chrysler, will trump be happy about this? well, i don't know, is trump happy about anything at the moment? you would have to say not. this is another thing he will want to try to protect, the great us manufacturing economy. it is about the headline. not necessarily the intricacies of the deal. the psychological element? another chinese corporate ra

i did want to ask about one thing, about mario draghi. in europe they are still printing almost 1 trillion a year, they have negative interest rates, you deposit money and have to give them the toaster. is there any talk whatsoever about the rolling that back in any way, shape or form? i know japan is doing the same. i wonder and worry what is at the end of the road of this, not just easy movie but over-the-top he the money? >> you would think they would have to but things are just so up in the air over there except a couple different markets. frankly, they are reeling from] -- brexit and see what is done politically, can the printing keep going and if it does, what are the consequences? in the short term it is great to say we will continue this easing but the question becomes what is the long-term consequence? in the united states we have done moderate pullback. in japan and europe they keep it going and the question will become if a bubble pops in europe will it have an impact in the united states, will it have an impact worldwide and w

what yellen would say, what mario draghi would say. expectation bid on the wednesday inventory data is going to show the eighth week of inventory declines in the u.s.. that is giving hope to the bulls that had thrown in the towel's on the opec output curves not denting global supply. >> thank you. president trump in arizona for a rally which he hopes may spark a rebound after a tumultuous few days. ofning us now, coming off the afghanistan speech the president made which someone said was a good moment. he stuck to the prompter. he was presidential. how could this change for the rally today? could we see a reset? >> one really never knows. last night was a good set piece speech for the president. he was mostly silent today to a ring a border patrol facility near the border with mexico. he just landed in phoenix. typically in these events he has got a same. this time it will be immigration , border enforcement. he will have talking points. he draws on the energy of the crowd and goes with it. he could be saying most anything. >> could th

he is supported mario draghi and janet yellen. how have those asset values been underpinned by a massive intrusion of capital? >> to a great extent. you go back to the beginning of qfii and if you forced people to riskier assets, that's what helped grow the economy because of a triple down a theory from the gains you get. that works to a certain extent. it has driven asset prices up. how much has it done for income and spending? the answer is a lot more open. david: you use of the magic words "trickle-down" and we heard of those in the 1980's. has it reflected in the underlined economy? michael mckee: it has and it hasn't. don't delight is what would've happened if they had not done anything? you take a look at the chart i #btvht along which is 8707. the white line is s&p 500 since they began qe. the yellow line is personal income from assets, dividends, etc., up 86% started at a higher level. the blue line is household median income. the average person is not getting a lot out of this. maybe we would have had a zero growth but we

julia: would offer mario draghi? -- what about mario draghi? global impact from bond prices. do you think you think he will be very much on his guard at this meeting? so.ael: i would suspect we saw that yesterday when he did not go into great detail with what the ecb will do. to be fair, the governing council hasn't discussed with the removal be. anything he would say what essentially fronts run that. politically, that is not a good move or him -- for him. they may not have decided on the mechanics, and that is something to talk about as well. some appointed out to me it is still an open question whether they stock qe. might announce the small that they will end at this year. but was inflation, maybe they don't want to and maybe he's something to balance out what he -- and maybe he says something to balance out what he said earlier. that could be the hints markets react to. julia: such a great point. with a euro strength, this is an added indication of inflation. mike mckee. let us get a check on the headlines on the bloomberg first word news. mark: we continue to monitor an

mario draghi is facing that conundrum. the more, the better of the european economy does, the more ity tiptoe, the stronger gets. still low in europe and falling short of the target in the u.s. we are back into that little bit of that currency war dynamic, i guess you could say. yellenthis is from janet austria's speech -- -- janet yellen's speech -- she did getting some of the changes regulatory league we have seen. the conversation continues to center on who is going to lead this fed going forward. there was the interview on friday as well. how much does personnel matter and what do you make of that defense of regulation she gave in jackson hole on friday? herhe considers that one of most important -- she was there before, during, and after the financial crisis. creating a framework for stability. i think the personnel does matter. for janet yellen, to leave after one term, that would make her the first one term chair since miller, who left in disgrace at expression. it would speak to the institution if we get gary cohn

will mario draghi address it when the e.c.b. meets next week? oliver: that's hard to tell. in the minutes of the e.c.b., they did address it. i think it's a little hard to kind of make too much out of it because, you know, in absolute terms, relative to where the euro has been in the past it's really not that strong so i think they will not make too much out of it. it's one of the components in assessing the outlook but if growth is good and inflation picks up a bit, they will not make too much out of this still moderate rise in the euro. francine: thanks so much, oliver adler of credit swiss. tim graf of global markets. you were shaking your head talking about euro level. you don't think it's too strong? tim: year to date the affected euro is up 6.7% and hardly the stuff of nightmares and reflects the policy's success if anything. if you were to double that gain then you might start to have some questions asked. but ugochi: own trade figures from what is suggested is far from overvalued and would take a short sharp move to get them really concerned but as lodge as we're se

haidi: maybe something unexpected out of jackson hole as well from mario draghi. thank you very much. up, their earnings are the best in years, but is it sustainable? ♪ haidi: we are counting down to the opening of markets in china and hong kong. india is really downward looking friday. we had a poor session on wall street overnight, the biggest s&p on of the air on the domestic political concerns as well as the terror attack in spain. markets down by 1.25 compared to futures, just a little less than that. lenovo.be watching had a surpriser quarterly loss, its first loss in about six quarters. it appears to be losing its grip on the global pc market. at the same time, it's investment in its smart phone services are not paying off. we were expecting a net income of $32.9 million. the pc segment is the only profitable one, so serious headwinds for lenovo. also watching chinese insurance. bloomberg asia pass insurance -- asia's insurance analyst. is this what we were expecting? i think overall, they came in on the high side of estimates. about 46% year on year grow

i know that mario draghi will be in jackson hole. i will be there covering it. three years ago he open the door to quantitative easing making bond purchases. people are thinking half, three years later he is getting ready to tell us he is done. he is going to start tapering off. inflation is low in the eurozone. they aren't having success in getting their inflation up. japan can't go anywhere with their balance sheet. the fed made it clear they will start unwinding. how does that make it bullish on the euro and bearish on the dollar? i think that you have to look at the longer-term valuation metrics like purchasing power parity which puts the euro was overvalued in the dollar somewhat undervalued. we all see that for a longer time. morgan stanley recently came out with a note suggesting the longer term fed value on 1.33.ollar is around we need the catalyst to do so. the market has been pessimistic for a while on rate hikes. we profit out of the dollar. the trump trade has come out quite clearly. we are pricing in just over one hike. rate hikes are not being pric

mario draghi, if he wants will have every reason in the world to try to talk down the euro. ago, the euro-dollar, up by 10% a year today. look at the hedge funds right now. they look to be getting nervous. leverage, data on shows net bets on the euro -- that is the yellow line. the white is the euro itself. dropping by a have to just over 10,000 contracts in a shift to a net short. casting doubt on the sustainability of this year path rally. 90 minutes into the trading day in the u.s. >> happy monday to you, mark. on this monday we are looking at another day of declines. we have the dow, s&p, and the nasdaq slightly to modestly lower. ,oth the dow and the s&p 500 less, tech heavy. big tech names including apple, we will look at that in a moment. this is notable. the small declines are notable because it is fitting a bearish pattern we have seen recently. third down week in a row for the dow and s&p 500. the week is young but the nasdaq now on pace for its fifth down week in a row. the first time that will happen since 2012. a little bit of a bearish streak for the major aver

we saw this dip briefly, euro-dollar after a report that mario draghi will not be talking about the new policy at jackson hole. in terms of where this resistance level is, some saying it is 100 1740 but we are far away from that, as you can see from this chart. taking a look at the aussie performancebest against the greenback in this session with wage data coming in and in line with expectations and a bit of short covering. on the aussie dollar. you can see the head of the shoulder pattern, looking like a bit of a broad shoulder as the retracement is delayed by the strengths today. , thank you.a are takingotiations place in washington. president trump in his key advisers are trying to get back on message today. the president made remarks yesterday about neo-nazis and counterprotesters in virginia. garyg a news conference, work side-by-side with the president at the event. "the new york times" reported that he was obsessed and discussed the of the comments. president trump said that there were two sides to the story regarding charlottesville and he criticized eeo's who quit his advisory

yes, i think mario draghi will be saying something about it. but as i said, for the something about it. but as i said, forthe uk, something about it. but as i said, for the uk, they think this is an opportunity. well, ai, driverless trucks. they get the go—ahead. opportunity. well, ai, driverless trucks. they get the go-ahead. this is big. it is. things have been moving this way. we are talking very much about the cars, rather than the trucks. but now we are in this situation whereby it seems as if we will be starting trials for the d riverless will be starting trials for the driverless truck or semi— driverless, because there will be a driverless, because there will be a driver to take the reins, should anything happen. and there is a view that these trucks... they are semiautomated driverless trucks and they will do something called platoon in, whereby there is a whole convoy and the front truck controls the others and the view is that actually this saves on fuel, it saves on environmental degradation. however, there are concerns about sa

albeit mario draghi dialing back expectations of what he would say this week. he was speaking this morning and didn't say much about that but the euro is higher more because of pmi data out of europe which came in better than expected particularly germany with softer than expected business sentiment data yesterday the euro up 0.2% not so much because of mario draghi comments. he speaks again on sprayed in jackson hole elsewhere, the dollar moving a bit lower against the yen. and pretty much flat against the pound. the pound though, against the euro, it is hitting an eight-year low even though the euro's pulled back a bit in the last couple weeks against the dollar, it has not done that against the pound. gold prices are not doing much basically flat at $1291. finishing on oil prices which were higher yesterday but only by 0. -- down 0.5% today up 0.5% yesterday. let's talk more about oil and the energy market. john kilduff cnbc contributor joins us first question i got, john, why have we seen metals race ahead over the summer? iron ore up w40% but oil not doing

now we could have mario draghi coming out in jackson hole on the 25th of august saying, we will taper. that is not the base case, but a risk. valuations coming up a little bit, we have had pickups in the automakers, and in the german numbers this morning we saw that the second derivative seems to be changing and things seem to be slowing down a little bit. tapirs and theb u.s. continues to gradually raise rates, and yields creep higher in g7 countries, what is the knock over for emerging markets? will they reject trade of the decade -- could we see in impact on emerging markets similar to the taper tantrum? vonnie: it is an important question. the emerging markets are more and more an important part in the driving part of global growth, so we have not had a real increase in rates yet. i think the research shows empirically that when you get developed market rates rising, it is clear from the data and analysis that the emerging markets suffer from capital outflows. the reason why this has not happened yet, because the developed markets have not risen for various reasons. in fact my tha

>> it can do verbal intervention it can -- mario draghi is a master of this kind of manipulating the markets by telling people, you know what they want to hear. like all good central bankers are. markets do hang on to every word he says, every movement of his eyebrow gets interpreted in a particular way so we can do that. but there are limits to that and i do think that, you know, the more the euro goes up, the lower the inflation expectations in the eurozone will be. and in a way that will do its own work >> we saw a bit of profit taking in the euro/dollar pair yesterday. that was on the back of the ecb minutes. ecb members somewhat concerned about an overshoot in the euro that did not necessarily help european equities. do you think there's strong inverse relationship between equities and the euro? is it not as strong as we make it out to be >> i don't think it's as strong as people make it out, but the euro will affect the profitability of certain european companies that have a large amount of earnings overseas you saw that in the qt. >> you still say the biggest risks to european

ecb president mario draghi set to delivery speech tomorrow in germany. i investors are awves investorso how soon the investment bank could begin the draw down program. on friday, the top central bankers descend on jackson hole for the annual economic policy symposium. the dollar is making gains ahead of janet yellen's speech that seems like a good moment to bring in valentin m ashlgsar maf i i'm interested in this event on friday how important is what janet yellen says versus mario draghi? >> our expectation is the yellen speech is more important for the market so jackson hole as a whole will repeat what was said at sintra earlier in the year that policy normal saig is underway. the banks and the fed will continue to withdraw stimulus from here. given that the markets long risk, short dollar, long euro, we think the dollar would meernl as o could emerge as very important the dollar may be the one to benefit the most, rather than the euro when it comes to draghi's speech, there will already indications that he is less likely to discuss the near-term polic

so back to the mario draghi speech in germany, draghi defending xwadefend ing quantitative easing saying, quote, there's a large bodty of imp imp imperical research in these policies in supporting the economy and inflation, both in the euro and in the united states holding up an example. his speech comes two days ahead of another speech he'll make in jackson hole much anticipated >>> specific stock stories, advertising giant wpp, take a look, getting hammered by 11% after the company warned for the second time this year, the ceo earlier on "squawk on the street." >> i think there are three forces at work here. first is digital disruption, which is not a threat to the industry, it's an opportunity more than a threat the second thing is, activist investors are taking positions, particularly in package good companies, which have put them on the short-term pressure and then the third force here is the zero-based budgeters >> wpp competitors omnicom group falling in sympathy. >> worst day for wpp in 17 years. michelle, thank you. >>> let's get back over to hq. sue herrera now with the news up

investors will also be listening closely to this man — european central bank president mario draghi. he's attending for the first time in three years. some think he may try to use his speech to talk down the value of the euro, which has been surging in recent days. professor alan auerbach from uc berkeley is one of the speakers at jackson hole. hejoins us now. professor, let's talk about interest rates first. is there an inflationary problem? do they need to put up interest rates as we thought they probably would do in december? welcome united states has been putting up interest rates, which make increases this year and another projected for december. but oui’ another projected for december. but our headline inflation rate is actually slightly below the target 296 actually slightly below the target 2% rate. so there has been a debate in the united states about whether or not there should be a slower increase in interest rates or whether inflation is just around the corner and we should be trying to pre—empt it. corner and we should be trying to pre-empt it. do you think it would

mario draghi no question back on euro strength. not sure that is the reason to continue to buy euro-dollar. he is certainly not going to stand in the way. i think that is the message from analysts here. on the other side of that trait come you have the dollar here. i am showing you bloomberg's dollar index here. we traced the levels for those of you that are interested. it can touch the 50% replacement level.just want to give them there. eye on mexico as well as seeing significant retracement from the losses we saw in dollar mexico. you can see that on the back end of last year. i am surprised we have not seen more weakness in mexico with donald trump talking about blowing off nafta. markets ignoring. joe: yeah. nafta will be perhaps a more interesting story than people realize. let's finally look at the commodities starting with the intraday action in oil and gold. oil tumbling. west texas intermediate down 2.5%. obviously, there is that diminishment of u.s. refining capacity due to harvey. it could create some surplus in the amou

. >> yeah, a lot of focus on mario draghi, he has two speeches to come, jackson hole friday and in germany wednesday. and ecb will be forced to taper regardless because they are running out of bonds to buy. so a little bit of a wind out of sales of the european markets. but also if that is what is leading u.s. futures lower, it's not too concerning because clearly it's a separate story than the u.s. picture. and i also think europe was up nicely last week the dax and french market up nearly 2%. oil prices didn't rebound. down about a third of a percent today. 48.4 dollar board for you, some interesting moves last week. the dollar was slightly higher, but it did see some ground gained against the likes of the euro and pound, but did lose some ground against the nikkei this morning down 0 aboutment 2% f for the europe and gold prices up slightly for the week.. aboutment 2% for the europe. and gold prices up slightly for the week.aboutment 2 for the europe and gold prices up slightly for the week.utment 2% for the europe and gold prices up slightly for the week.nt 2% for the europe and gold p