overall we are in a solid market, the government backing us nicely with all of the stimulus and the fed i think there's a lot of combinations that make sense on why this is a market that can be bought on a lot of these sell-offs. >> all right. >> as a matter of fact, i used this opportunity to buy quite a few different put options, not stocks, because of the fact i don't feel all that confident that i was looking at bottoms just the other day and suddenly we're actually moving to the upside i actually wouldn't be surprised to see us see some more severe drops to the downside. >> it is not like you're just buying anything either, pete you bought snowflake calls i mean you went right to the heart of the sell-off and bought calls in snowflake, which, by the way, gets an upgrade today at goldman sachs, which i thought it was interesting just as a statement perhaps of the overall market as to whether stocks like that have come down too far. i mean it has corrected 34%, pete, and you have called out these stocks. >> not only that, scott, but -- >> you called out the high multiple -- >> think

that is more than the fed consensus. this is the number that figures into the fed spending. they look at core because it tells that mark but the number they are working towards -- because it tells them more. jonathan: -- tom: you are doing this in real time. i'm seeing one statistic, pce revision to 2.4%. we are looking back 60 days of greater inflation, right? michael: right. we have had a little bit more inflation. the poor comes in hotter than expected. -- the core comes in hotter than expected. .7% for april and the year-over-year number hits 3.4%. let me do a quick calculation. romaine: the data is basically stasis in the equity market. that is pre-much where we were a couple of minutes ago. we are seeing a little bit of selling pressure in the treasury market. the 10-year gilts picking up slightly -- the 10 year yield picking up slightly. a little but of activity in the two year. the bloomberg dollar index up about .3%. you have a market that has their eye heavily on the pce number, trying to parse what .1% pickup or a .6 pickup for a revision of .5%, what does that me

and when the fed seems to talk or fed speak out there seems to firm rates up which is counter intuitive to the fed to sprinkle the sugar around but sometimes in the text of the global central banking system where not be where it needs to be there's an acknowledgement to do enough and look at the economy and know that there's going to be some heorse power and maybe the fed should speak out about the job openings 8.1 million on is that we haven't brought back 9 million workers. back to you. >> all right let's get further row action and news from steve liesman. what do you have an emphasis still on job rec rec recovery as much as anything else >> there's no details to co contradict rick's view no reason at least when they met in april to change the policy whatsoever indicators had strength and the senior sectors most hurt by the pandemic showed improvement but transitory factors expect to maintain the stance until the goals are achieved. the economy was far from the deployment goals and the inflation goals. i have to dig in deeper to see if there's anybody there agitating what bob pisani i

continued fed support. we heard that in that soundbite but he wouldn't speculate over a tapering timeline and the size of the recovery. it has a ways to go. >> my friends on wall street, and i have a lot of them, they complain about the fed policies that are mucking up their trading strategies. i have zero sympathy because there are still 8-10,000,000 americans who want to work, who ought to be working and we should rebuild the labor market and put them back to work. then at that point, there will be plenty of time to normalize monetary policy. if we are wrong, if the inflation surprises are not transitory but end up being more persistent, we have the tools to deal with that, to tighten monetary policy, to keep inflation in check. i'm not worried about that. i am worried about not having another tenure recovery for the labor market. that is devastating to millions of americans and we need to put them back to work more quickly. >> the question many people ask is, do you still need to do $120 billion per mont

some people think she could be fed chair. the board of governors is saying today that she does expect to see price pressures. they go along with the reopening, but they will be temporary. she thinks that they will not upset inflation expectations in a permanent way. here's what she said. >> if we saw development pushing inflation up, i would not expect that to get embedded in the ongoing inflation rating. of course if we did see inflation that moves persistently and maturely above our goals in a manner that also threatens to have some impacts on the long-term inflation expectation, we have the tools and the experience to gently guide inflation back down to target and no one should doubt our commitment to do so. kathleen: rafael bostic, the president of the atlanta fed says he does not think any price increases will be enduring. what has been happening is the demand response, people buying more and faster than supply response, faster than bottlenecks and workers, etc., can allow companies to reduce the output scope -- so price

guy: it is about the fed being too late now. it is not does the fed jump into early. it is about is the fed going to be too late. if the fed is too late, is the genie out of the bottle? alix: according to larry summers, yes. according to jim bullard, no. part of this and the booming u.s. economy, the inflation concerns, you can really see within the consumer stocks and the earnings we get, which are huge. target just out today. we've got more retail numbers, comp sales good. they don't see a lot of margin pressure because demand is so strong. abigail doolittle is digging through all of it now. abigail: it is really incredible, going into the big box retailers. this chart is pretty extraordinary. same-store sales for lowes and home depot, those big home improvement retailers, it is true what they said. the pandemic brought out the big shoppers. you get quarter after quarter of decent same-store sales come about about -- same-store sales, but the pandemic hit, the most recent quarter, home depot coming in at 31%, lowes say 26%. however, if we take a look at the stocks,

the fed can contribute as well. using our tools, the fed promotes maximum employment and price stability, to foundations of a strong, stable economy that can approve economic outcomes for all americans. we view maximum employment as a broad and inclusive goal. those who have historically been left behind stand the best chance of [silence] >> it appears we have lost our signal from this event with federal reserve chair jerome powell. we hope to resume our live coverage shortly. this is c-span. >> unfortunately, we are not able to fix the problem with our live signal. we hope to have this entire event for you later on our program schedule, you can check online at our website. >> tonight, on the communicators, brookings institution vice president darrell west's cusses his book, turning point, policymaking in the era of artificial intelligence. >> is not just one revolution that is taking place, it is 10 or 20 or 30 different things taking place simultaneously. it is the growing ubiquity of technology in all of our live

we learn early on you do not fight the fed, if fed says there is no inflation, good for reopening and reflation but you have to have companies with margin expansion. industrials, material stocks, certain technology names that benefit from all the good things on the technology side happening today in this acceleration of innovation. charles: if there are no chicken wings i will be down there protesting myself. scott, when it comes to transitory, if we play the game, i've got the over, whatever the number is. what is your assessment? the fed they're a united front. they're staying firm. there is no way we deviate no matter what. >> yeah. i don't know if they have a overunder yet, charles on that, because as larry pointed out, the fed will keep using that word over and over again until they're right. because i actually agree with them. i think if the economies globally reopen as we hope they are going to, you will see the resource utilization, easy for me to say, you will see the sourcing of minerals, elements, things going into building things, making things again start to happen. globa

the market will do with their expectations of inflation, and not wait for the fed and why wouldn't we go higher based on, albeit, the jobs number of last friday seems like a very distant memory at this point but the readings we get on the economy and the reopening. the dynamics around us everything in the inflation print and the subcomponents you talked about tell us that the 10 year should go higher. again, i don't want a 60 basis point 10 year. i think we want to see the 10 year at 220 and i think equities ultimately will give something back remember, this isn't a tina moment there's other places to invest 3% move or 4% move through the s&p after moving 26% since november, i'm not sure that this is the worst thing going so far, i don't like inflation and this may be high core inflation or reflation but it's not high inflation it's not high inflation. i want to repeat that. so i'm not terribly distressed right now. >> inflation, or fear of inflation. cause the sell-off let's bring in steve liesman, the man who can answer the question do you think, steve, that the fed is increasingly

jill: i think it keeps the fed dovish, and we are not expecting the fed to raise rates until the second half of 2023, so it reinforces the dovish bias there. overall, we are in the midst of a lot of things right now. monitoring the economic recovery, we are in the midst of earnings season, and our view is the market has been pricing in a lot of the good news. the s&p 500, we are only expecting it to end of the year at 3800, so we've had a more cautious view on the overall large-cap equity market given the bullish sentiment and the moves to valuations we have seen . that said, we still think, given the services recovery and the overall capex recovery, some of the things we still expect, that you want to be in areas of the market like value stocks, like small caps. alix: what is going to be the next catalyst? typically small caps are going to do well, but they have been stuck in no man's land since early february despite earnings that are pretty strong. what is going to be that catalyst to play that thesis out? jill: you saw a really strong rally off the bottom since last year, but i thin

the fed is calling it transitory, but economist mohamed el-erian isn't so sure. thank you so much for joining me. this is right at the moment when we want to talk to you and get your take on this. investors, policymakers are all wondering is this inflation persistent or transitory, and you're on the record is suggesting the fed should have a little more humility in making predictions. what's the probability this inflation could prove more persistent? >> it's high enough for the fed to stop repeating this mantra that it's going to be transitory. look, undoubtedly there are transitory factors. the base effects are one of them, the short-term miss match among supply is another one. but increasing he there's evidence underground of structural shifts in both demand and supply that suggests that we should have an open mind towards the persistence of the inflation their pressures. and that's what companies are telling us. but typically macroeconomists have enormous difficulty adding up the micro data and changing the macro approach. jack: yeah, certainly the data have b

still ahead, the week ahead featuring the fed minutes and another busy week of fed speech. that conversation next. this is bloomberg. ♪ jon: i'm jonathan ferro, this is "bloomberg real yield." time for the final spread. the week ahead, featuring a ton of fed speak with the vice chair monday followed by the president. -- the various presidents throughout the week. we will have a look at the fed minutes up wednesday for that. most of you know the answer for that. new york city reopening and lifting all restrictions on indoor and outdoor businesses. then, initial jobless claims thursday, and we rounded down the week with a host of global market pmi's. from new york city for our audience worldwide, that does it for us. see you next week. enjoy the weekend. (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. y

tom: it is now time to frame the fed. we can do that with julia coronado, macro policy perspectives founder. the equity market is voting. maybe it is a raging rally. how do you use the stock market within your fed economics? the stock market is voting optimism. julia: right. chair powell is a financial conditions guy. he does use financial conditions to calibrate how easy or how supportive policy is come and right now the markets are saying policy is supportive and it will work and it will create a strong recovery. that is exactly where they wanted to be. tom: where you see that with an investment? it is a smaller number. what is that volatility right now into the end of the year? julia: we saw a very strong investment recovery last year. investment ended up stronger come at a higher level in pre-pandemic are the end of the year. i think that bodes well for gains in productivity this cycle and also for that optimism you talked about earlier. companies are putting capital to work. they see progress for making money by doin

from us fed officials. kathleen: in fairness to fed officials, they are worried, their watching, but they have a very strong, well-thought-out logic as to why they can make their bet that it will not be permanent. jim gorman no saying this, speaking today. my personal view is rates are likely to arise -- to rise in the early part of next year and not in 2023, which is currently what is projected. he also thinks the fed will start its taper by the end of this year. he says it is because people are now, after seeing no inflation, clearly seeing price increases, and that is what he is looking at. if we go to our chart for a minute, you can see there are four other members of the fomc. the second line in from the left. looking for that first rate hike sometime in 2022. gorman is not alone on that either. when we get to the june meeting it will be interesting to see if other fed officials are tilting more, starting to talk about taper, moving in that direction, and moving up their forecast for that first hike. h

what is the most likely fed policy error? thinking about how the fed does respond to inflation, which error would you see is most likely? shamik: i am always nervous about forecasting policy errors, but the one i am more worried about is this overheating kind of possibility. the idea that the fed sees a bit of inflation, and thinks it is probably temporary, and thinks he can get it under control. it needs rates too -- leaves rates too long for too long and that pressure builds in 2022. then at some point, it realizes, my god, we have to slam on the brakes. that is what i am most worried about. i think it is up against but it is certainly a rising risk and i think the markets are trying to come to terms with that. anna: thank you very much. shamik dhar, thank you very much. shamik stays with us for a conversation a little later this hour. coming up very soon, a surprise loss. we talk to the wind turbine maker about those results and how it is turning sustain available goals into practical solutions. we will talk about that. th

they mentioned meme stocks in the latest fed report. that did not hold back stocks or at least it has not yet. the wording around bubbles -- warning around bubbles. our next guest certainly is concerned around valuation of stocks. matt: it is something we have been talking about the last few months, the idea there is this euphoria in markets. when has it gone too far? when is enough enough? it was excellent highlighting the idea that the fed said everything but a bubble. it brings it back into the focus that now even the fed is saying, look, this is going to crazy. slightly ironic given the fact stocks are going crazy is because of the money they are pumping into the system. they are responsible for the bubbles or not bulls as they are perceived -- not bubbles as they are perceived. the guardians of the financial system are warning about them. it is something it should make investors a little bit nervous. anna: we will be back to many of those shortly. another headline across the bloomberg, this is your connection with barclays. edward

traditionally, fed chairs do not talk about fed policy when they leave. ben bernanke never talked about janet yellen's policy. this was a surprise. daniela will probably get back to her previous statement of not thinking inflation will be a problem and leave it there. >> she was saying a lot of things that many economists would probably say as well. as a fed chair, those words resonate as well, when can we expect to hear more? kathleen: she is speaking a lot, she has to. she is no longer the fed chair, she is a political appointee. her job is to present, explain and support joe biden's policy. when we hear janet yellen speak, she speaks from a very different perspective. for many people, it is still valuable to hear what she has to say. yvonne: thank you very much for wrapping all that up. speaking of inflation, we were talking about supply shortages and the statistical logjam and into the warning signs. michelle, we have been talking about these bottlenecks in the commodity space as well. how have these material shortages changed the global debate? >> th

administration does it, the fed does it. when they are trying to test the waters, they want to test the level of angst in the market amongst investors so instead of jay powell coming out to say maybe we have to do this, notice what they do. they put the word out through bob kaplan on the weekend. today, charlie evans and making virtual speeches, investors will listen to what they have to say. suddenly janet yellen who doesn't have a vote on the fomc committee, right? she is treasury secretary, but was fed chair, she makes what she might have thought as innocuous comment. look at reaction in the market that is the fed's way to test what will be the reaction. how volatile are investors going to get. charles: kenny what are you buying here? >> so, listen i got to tell you i like consumer staple names. certainly in this environment. i like banks. jpmorgan, bank of america my two favorites consumer staple names f you're looking stability in big americana type names -- proctor & gamble, coca-cola, general mills. they're not sexy b

confidence in the fed's view on inflation. european finance ministers meet in lisbon today in person. eu negotiators back vaccine certificates in a bid to save the summer. israel and hamas agreed to a cease-fire, ending a deadly 11 day conflict. president biden praises the accord brokered by egypt. welcome to the program. welcome to the european market open on bloomberg tv. 7:00 here in london. mark is with us in singapore. what are the markets saying to you? mark: unfortunately, the markets aren't saying much to me. all the traders i speak to are still preoccupied by what's happening encrypted currency. it's really engendering great debates about whether this will be the ultimate breakdown point in the bubble. whether this is just another usual downturn in the longer-term cycle. it's amazing. all my chats are obsessed with bitcoin. even today. mark: absolutely. -- anna: absolutely. interesting to see how bitcoin sucks the life out of other conversations. we will joined -- redrawing bitcoin judiciously. breaking news. retail s

doesn't have control anymore and that it is not just monetary policy that the fed can control. it is going to potentially be guided by fiscal policy, which some suggest is way too loose and it is going to force the fed's hand because it is going to cause more inflation and the job number suggests this is exactly what the problem is. wages are going to have to go up to entice people to come back to work it is going to force the fed to do something it doesn't want to do. >> scott, i have a lot of sympathy for that line of thinking, but you have to own it a little bit, scott, and say that the bond market has this exactly wrong. if you think about what you just said the getting people into the workforce is the problem and the answer is higher wages and the result of that is more inflation, you would expect the bond market to be driving up yields and not down yields, which is what happened today i think it could be the market has that wrong or the market sees what i suggested, which is the idea that the risk of a fed acting sooner has come out of the market somewhat. >> yeah. well,

it is the feds job to make sure that does not happen. if it were to move above 2%, to move long-term expectations above 2%, we would use our tools to bring expectations down to consistent levels. we are all familiar with the history of the 1960's and 70's. we know our job is to achieve 2% inflation over time. that is a very different situation then you have back in the 1960's. let me talk quickly about the reasons why we think inflation will move up. twelve-month measures of inflation are likely to move well above 2% as the very low inflation readings dropped out of the calculation. that process has already started to show up. you will see it later this week and a pce price data. they will contribute about seven tenths of a percent of a percentage point. they will disappear and be transitory. that is based effects. the other big one i would talk about is politics. we are in close touch with all of these industries. the fed has a network of contacts that is unequaled. what do we mean by a bottleneck? a bottleneck is a temporary blockage o

does the fed care? michael: the fed will tell you it does not care. they have a little more freedom to work. inflation, even though it is rising is still below historical levels. they will not have to raise interest rates as far as they would have decades ago. guy: in terms of the expectations come the expectation is taxes will be permanent, that is why the deficit will come down. what you think the president can get done on taxes? how much room for maneuver does he have? how high will the rate be on capital gains? laura: capital gains he is expected to raise to 39.6%. we are hearing that is too high. these are dials they can turn. the senate democrats are talking about 28% or 25%. these are adjustments that can be made. guy: we look forward to the coverage as we get the news a little bit later. laura davidson and bloomberg's michael mckee. what we have coming up for you? balance of power is coming up. gregory flynn joining balance of power with david westin on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio. i'll be going over to the table in london on dab

now you're talking 20 percent inflation yeah but even the government the fed the fed numbers they did come out and say that the c.p.i. did jump but it's transitory and it's over 3 and a half percent now so they are signal it was a pretty huge jump but in terms of the situation we find ourselves and and so we have the house prices going up at least as some domestic wealth effect and you know versus all that money the stimulus checks that we're sending to china but here's another interesting data point and chart that i see. this week that is part of that decomposition which is the through 33 cities track that we talk about 1 all the time that when a rising nation starts to overtake the previous big power china overtaking the u.s. well you see that and the numbers and you see that i mean if you trace the hostility between the 2 nations and actually also with this and that is and 2019 the number of chinese firms in the fortune 500 over took the number of american for the 1st time the number of american firms so here's the data going back to 1905 when there is there are 5 0 and then we ele

there are benefits of what the fed is doing. it is going to keep inflation expectations better anchored. it is going to get people that are still out of work back to work quickly. but the financial market, people need to be cognizant of some of those downside risks. jonathan: stanley druckenmiller, famed investor, saying the following. "the bubbles dwarf the short-term risk on a booming economy in 2022." what do you make of that aspect of it? william: the fed does recognize that financial markets are frothy, but they are looking through that. they don't see it as a big risk to financial stability because investors in the equity market typically don't do so on a highly leveraged basis. in the great financial crisis, it was the leverage that kilduff. so -- it was the leverage that killed us. so they are looking through that pig at they are determined to keep rates low. tom: i want to digress. we just talked to jared bernstein from the white house about this. the fear that growth will not participate in our deficit solutions, this

another fed official timing on talking about it. the vice chair of supervision said it will be important for the som see adjusting plans for pace of asset purchases and meetings. vice chair claret joining over the last week as well. tom: there has been a lot of pushback on taper and zeitgeist in the last 48 hours. the word is being reformed and remodeled. jon: here's the line from aaron robinson, he says we believe in increasing anxiety about asset purchase tapering by the fed, weighing on the markets expected growth outlook in the second half. the global head of research towards us right now. erica, allow me to be provocative this morning. rotella -- relatively speaking given how boring it is elsewhere. where's the anxiety in the bond market? eric: i think what we have seen for most of the year is quite a bit of anxiety about potential inflation, potential supply, the expected explosion in u.s. data, which we have started to see, but i think what is super interesting is, even with all of this good news on the economic front, and ev

the fed is talking about for limp limit. it's not just looking at the unemployment rate, back to the pre-pandemic levels. also what's happening to employment more broadly across the population. the population ratio is 1.1% for the people them at level. we are away from that. if we were to see job gains at one million per month over the rest of the year, we would probably get there. most investors feel that the big rush in jobs creation is going to be over the coming months. we will see something of a slowdown so that we don't actually get back to that full employment level until late 2022 or early 2023. anna: late 22 or early 23. bloomberg economics talking about a job deficit relative to pre-pandemic levels. you referenced the employment to population ratio which we will look out for. there's going to be easier wins when it comes to returning people to the jobs market. opening up hospitality and retail, for example in many places. there will be the harder yards as we get laid around through the crisis. i wonder if we will b

kathleen: you spent many years on the banking side of the boston fed. basically, you are watching it, you said and you have some concerns that we could see financial instability there. eric: as we get further into the recovery, if we continue to have very low interest rates which i expect, it is going to be important to be vigilant on what sectors of financial markets are starting to show a little too much nebulous. there are a number of areas that certainly the pricing is fully priced, and i do have concerns if people take on substantial more risk as the economy continues to do well, that that is something that we are going to have to be very vigilant about and think carefully about how our monetary policies are affecting the potential stability list. kathleen: janet yellen said with a massive stimulus in place now and giving the economy more of a push, rates might have to rise a little bit in order to make sure the economy does not overheat. she walked back to remarks later, but she is -- that is what she said, so clearly that is what she sees. how ca

i'm looking for change in fed speak, looking for change in the posture of the fed. i'm looking for inflation. i am looking at gold, looking at the overall economic activity. if i had to give you a list of positives and negatives, i am more impressed by the negatives. jonathan: here's a negative right now, just got a downside surprise on the a to b report -- on the adp report. it's a small downside surprise, 742,000. 850,000 was the estimate. going into payrolls friday, looking for a big number. 990 5000 is your median estimate going to friday's print -- 995,000 is your median estimate going into friday's print. tom: this report is not all that good. michael mckee joins us ahead of all of our economics on this. i look at where we are on adp, and i say, can you link it to friday? you have told me time and time again you can't. michael: what if i told you you could? just kidding. you can link the direction and magnitude without linking the absolute numbers. that is why i think the markets may be a little bit rattled, shall we say, by a number that is about 100,000 less

treasuries moving in the wake of the fed minutes. kiwi stocks are up. we get the delivery of the budget today. looking at the nikkei futures, it is up. holding pretty steady, trading lower in hong kong. aussie futures signaling positive futures. fomc is tapering bond purchases. our editor kathleen is here for more. are they now ready to talk about talking about tapering? >> clearly, they have talked a bit about tapering. i feel like i'm doing a comedy routine here. they wrote at the very end of the minutes, just like a throwaway line. a number of participants suggested that the economy continued to make rapid progress toward the committee's goal, it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan for adjusting the pace of asset purchases. a number of participants, how many? upcoming meetings. this is definitely somewhat different from the boilerplate line you heard. almost every bank president saying yes we could get there but it's too early to do so. it's too early to talk about. remember the interview that i did rece

then i look at the other side, the fed versus the street. novak over at jp morgan says going to get an inflation shock, the likes of which you have not seen for a long time. given there is still high unemployment, central banks are likely to tolerate higher inflation and see it as temporary, so they would look through this. and talking about a generation that has not seen high risk inflation and therefore the reflation trade will take hold and it's going to be a mother of all rotation. the man at the center of the pivot is the boston fed president, aaron rosengren. he's playing down the inflation threat, and has something to say about daybreak. let's take a listen. >> were going to take -- taper if it becomes clear that the economy continues to grow at the base the forecasters have. i'm expecting a very strong economic recovery, most private-sector forecasts are expecting that. manus: let's check in on the markets. china and australia seem to be knocking discussions on the head. is that what is taking the chinese equity markets off or is it

by the way, this liquidity that's happening from the fed, the same time that the paydown on the fed treasury account is happening that is putting so much liquidity into the system, that you can elegantly start to reduce the quantitative easing and support long-end interest rates for a longer period of time, where i think that is the risk -- certainly the risk to the equity market. it is not, you know, the fact that the two-year note can move up a little bit or bills move up a bit. it is long-end interest rates, and i think the markets would like to see that and to see, you know, some pulling back of liquidity but some support for long-term interest rates versus the uncertainty of overheating so i think the fed can do it i just think it is pretty tough today after the communication from the last week. >> sure, sure. that becomes the greater issue let me ask you quickly, because i know you have to run, is this exactly why you have recently cut your exposure to tech because of the threat of all of this on stocks that have already had just a tremendous amount of multiple expansion, valuations ar

come on, the fed can't do this gracefully. jonathan: it is going to be very difficult to do it gracefully. the other thing they have tied themselves in knots over is it is an outcome based fed, but telling us they will warn us ahead of time. i'm not sure how you reconcile those two things. tom: on home depot in the margins strength we have seen, steve brought it up on "surveillance" earlier, about pricing power. that seems to be a trend. jonathan: i think if margins are holding up in a world of rising prices, that means they are managing to pass that through to the end user, to the customer. good news for the retailers so far. tom: let me do the fx for you. $1.20 on euro-dollar. that is really the loan trade against weaker yen, a relatively weaker dollar as well. that blended index, 91 down to 90, now 89.7. jon, it is can permed -- it is confirmed on the pacific rim with stronger renminbi almost out to recent records. jonathan: the european proxies, the eastern european countries doing nicely. poland, hungary just two of them

we cannot let the fed off the hook greg is right. real interest rates are f negative tips are negative because of fed. they push policies to make the risk the only appetite to satisfy. if it backfires, if we're pointing to the protagonist or the antagonist, i'm pointing at the antagonist and that's the fed in this equation >> feels like we're still early on in this book. thank you both >>> speaking of fed, don't miss an exclusive interview with mary daly at 3:00 p.m. eastern right here on cnbc >>> we're out with our nineth annual disrupter 50 list there's one with more companies on the list than any other category we'll tell kyou what it is we're auctioning off an nft of his famous haines bottom all proceeds go to autism speaks, a favorite charity of his. to bid, go do mintable.app/cnbc. it ends tomorrow morning at 10:30 a.m. eastern time. we're back in a moment designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so

the fundamentals would suggest that the fed is doing too much, right? we are expecting an economic boom we are already in one, and yet the fed is so accommodative. how do you play that well, if rates are going to be where they are, it is what it is you play the market long does that make sense to you? >> it does make sense, and it is exactly what you should be doing. let's take a look at some of the recent auctions. as i mentioned last week, we had the four-week note that was over subscribed four-to-one it is always oversubscribed. it was a big cover guess what was the rate in the rate was zero. yesterday we had the 42-day money management auction, only 40 billion, but it came in at virtually zero again, a big cover on it so the world is awash in liquidity. we have soon the bunds, they've started to move up, they're still below zero but you have real rates here below zero the encouraging news for the market is as the fed talks about tapering as you point out, the market has held its level. however, that's where we are right now. let's talk about when we

., the fed's robert kaplan is going to be speaking at the atlanta fed conference. very interesting to hear what he has to says about being the lone hawk on the federal reserve, wanting to raise rates in 2022. he is a nonvoting member, but interesting to hear the dissent among a very dovish fed. jonathan: is lisa counter programming this morning? at 9:00 there's also a radio show taking place. lisa: i expect you to be talking about it. tom: i'm really looking forward to talking to paul sweeney about what we have seen in media the last couple of days. lisa: i was not throwing shade. i'm allowed to be excited. jonathan: are you going to be with secretary yellen at the top of the 9:00, tom? tom: i have no idea. i'm just, you know, i'm looking for an entry point. jonathan: you do what you're told, i'm sure. lisa, thank you. i hope they play that, and then i won't do my show. this is from walmart. the team breaking down the numbers on the bloomberg terminal. the headline grabbing me here is the 37% surge in walmarts e-commerce business. that is from our reporter here at

joe: real quickly, filling open fed positions, this was a promise to not only have a more diverse fed. how actively are you working on filling open fed positions or thinking about replacements for possible retirements and making the fomc more diverse? >> the president has committed to having the fed more closely resemble the population of the united states. he has the most diverse cabinet in history. there's a focus on filling the current vacancy on the fed, and we will have a personal announcement on that when the time is appropriate. nothing to announce right now, but there is a process in place, and we recognize how important those seats and the governors are. caroline: thank you so much for your time. do stay with bloomberg when we talk more about the economy with the boston fed president coming up 6:30 new york time. you don't want to miss it. this is bloomberg. ♪ mark: i'm mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. government experts are projecting covid-19's toll on the united states will fall sharply by july, but the centers for disease control are also projecting a "su

taylor: can we talk about the fed meeting minutes? we thought we were not even going to talk about talk about tapering, but the fed meeting minutes saying we might have to taper. morgan stanley moving up the timeline saying we might have to lay out those plans, maybe september. katie: i am dying to talk about the fed minutes, so i'm glad you brought it up. there was one line that mattered, and it was that it might be appropriate at some point in upcoming meetings to begin discussing a plan if the committee's targets are met, so it was kind of amazing you did not see more of a reaction in markets. that's not really much of a move , but there's a number of nuances here. we don't know what "a number of participants" means and we don't know who it was, if it was the real core of the fed committee or if it was some of the outsiders who have been pretty vocal in terms of breaking away from the consensus, so we will see. it is also important to note that between that meeting and right now, we got a horrible jobs report for april, so that pro

it pulls forward the idea of a fed hike or tapering. tom: steven englander of standard chartered was out at 2 million would move the needle. jonathan: he thinks we need to see 2 million to move the needle. that is what he thinks would disrupt calibrations around the fed. yields up a little more than one basis point. no big moves. 1.58. tom: this is a joy and an honor. joseph stiglitz. nobel prize winner at columbia business school. definitive on economics and redefining the greek letter apps along -- the greek letter epsi lon. let me give you the real world math. gary, indiana, fancy a city in the world for economic spirit the home of joel's -- of joseph stiglitz and paula samuelson. gary, indiana went from 19% unemployment to 7% unemployment. that indicates the inequalities of a strange economy. how great is the economy in 2021? joseph: the pandemic exposed and exacerbated the inequalities. we were slated for a very k-sha ped recovery with those at the top who had done better than those at the bottom doing poorly. the numbers you cited

and before i fell into this crypto world i spent much of my time as a journalist in the fed world, i was a fed reporter and a number of those registered today for this today's event so i feel like i have to throw them a bit after bone and ask you about inflation, of course. look, this is also an issue of some importance to the crypto community obviously. and look, we've had the fed has signaled that it's going to be lenient going into this transition period and is expecting overshooting of inflation and is going to let that run for a while above target, but we had this huge cpi number, you know, huge number from april, much bigger than people had expected and my question is two-fold. one, are you worried at all that we're entering into a period where inflation could get out of control with the numbers as high as they are and create expectations to are more going forward? and b, how many more data points like that would we need to see before the fed would have to start signaling a removal of the monetary stance and willing to see interest rates rise to manage that inflationary trend?

we know the fed has an $8 trillion balance sheet. are you seeing smart money move and shift into different sectors and if so, where? >> well take a look at this , okay? what investors are focusing on right now is potentially profitable companies, nobody that just has revenue growth but still can't make money, either you got to produce, mine, manufacture, or deliver something and make money doing it. what's on top of the s&p 500 today, general electric and ford what's on top of the dow today? boeing and honeywell. what's on top of the transports today? ryder, fedex and jb hunt. these are all old school profitable companies, they are evolving, and they are all doing the right thing, but you don't see people running out and buying snowflake on this dip right now. liz: okay, well to you, scott shellady. sarge makes the case that people want the solid sort of value-ish names by the way the ceo of honeywell was on this show this week, ceo of ford on the show this week, so they are coming here to the "claman countdown" to give their story.

that's what the fed speak is all about sort of manage the psychology of the market participants right so this looks like it's shaping up to be an inflationary depression yes like we've seen why margery money or or venezuela or zimbabwe versus what we saw in the 1930 s. in the u.s. see clay sherry depression so this would be an inflationary depression and people are panic buying assets right now to protect themselves against what looks like. on the horizon which would be an utter collapse of the u.s. dollar of course in charge of the u.s. dollars the treasury the treasury tries to stay quiet and let the fed which only has power over credit it can't print u.s. dollars so it lets the fed do all the you know be the puppet like this kind of spokes person that's always speaking up the dollar whatever but yellen of course janet yellen who's the treasury secretary now used to be the fed chairman she's now she set off a panic by saying you know we freeze rates if interest rates get too high of course that's not their remit of the treasury at the moment but it caused panic is like is this what

markets can listen to fed speak this week and see how much concern the fed -- concern the fed has retention over labor supply and demand. we're putting this question directly to chicago fed president charles evans. we have an exclusive interview coming right up here on "squawk box" at 8:30 joe? >> steve, thanks. >>> fuel prices are jumping overnight as much of one of the largest pipelines in the u.s., much of it remains closed, following a sicybersecurity attack, gasoline futures jumped 2% we need a few more decimal points to get that exactly right, in case you're wondering. while heating oil futures rose 1.2% to 2.03 rounding that off for you. the hacker group linked to the colonial pipeline ransomware attacks, relatively new, but extremely organized. we're joined with a look at this group known as dark side aman >> it's the number one suspect, tricky to do attribution, but that's who experts think is behind this, they're a relatively new group ransomware as a service, they offer it to other criminal gangs and the other criminal gangs do the actual attacks, and then kick back money to the

street asks why the heck is the fed still buying any mortgage backed securities the u.s. housing market has spiraled totally out of whack and yet the fed keeps adding mortgage backed securities to its pile now at 2.2 trillion dollars to push down mortgage rates and pump up housing prices so this is the bread and circuses part of maintaining this. you know this last day is i guess it's like when you're when you're you're well is about to run now right and that is the dollars to get you might as well pump it as hard as you can that happens with almost all the many oil wells they just pump and pump and pump and whatever they can get out of it they'll get the drags out of it but this is that the bread and circuses part of it in my opinion right so these mortgage backed securities are on the balance sheets of the banks and the fed buys them back and they give them value $0.10 on the dollar but they're distorting the economy so much and people can't afford housing and that's part of the things they won't be able to afford including food and energy had housing authority impossib